Could Bat Cell Temperature and Filovirus Filament Length Explain the Emergence of Ebola Virus in Mammals? Predictions of a Thermodynamic Model

How virus size and attachment parameters affect the temperature sensitivity of virus binding to host cells: Predictions of a thermodynamic model for arboviruses and HIV

Virus binding to host cells involves specific interactions between viral (glyco)proteins (GP) and host cell surface receptors (Cr) (protein or sialic acid (SA)). The magnitude of the enthalpy of association changes with temperature according to the change in heat capacity (ΔCp) on GP/Cr binding, being little affected for avian influenza virus (AIV) haemagglutinin (HA) binding to SA (ΔCp = 0 kJ/mol/K) but greatly affected for HIV gp120 binding to CD4 receptor (ΔCp = -5.0 kJ/mol/K). A thermodynamic model developed here predicts that values of ΔCp from 0 to ~-2.0 kJ/mol/K have relatively little impact on the temperature sensitivity of the number of mosquito midgut cells with bound arbovirus, while intermediate values of ΔCp of ~-3.0 kJ/mol/K give a peak binding at a temperature of ~20 °C as observed experimentally for Western equine encephalitis virus. More negative values of ΔCp greatly decrease arbovirus binding at temperatures below ~20 °C. Thus to promote transmission at low temperatures, arboviruses may benefit from ΔCp ~ 0 kJ/mol/K as for HA/SA and it is interesting that bluetongue virus binds to SA in midge midguts. Large negative values of ΔCp as for HIV gp120:CD4 diminish binding at 37 °C. Of greater importance, however, is the decrease in entropy of the whole virus (ΔSa_immob) on its immobilisation on the host cell surface. ΔSa_immob presents a repulsive force which the enthalpy-driven GP/Cr interactions weakened at higher temperatures struggle to overcome. ΔSa_immob is more negative (less favourable) for larger diameter viruses which therefore show diminished binding at higher temperatures than smaller viruses. It is proposed that small size phenotype through a less negative ΔSa_immob is selected for viruses infecting warmer hosts thus explaining the observation that virion volume decreases with increasing host temperature from 0 °C to 40 °C in the case of dsDNA viruses. Compared to arboviruses which also infect warm-blooded vertebrates, HIV is large at 134 nm diameter and thus would have a large negative ΔSa_immob which would diminish its binding at human body temperature. It is proposed that prior non-specific binding of HIV through attachment factors takes much of the entropy loss for ΔSa_immob so enhancing subsequent specific gp120:CD4 binding at 37 °C. This is consistent with the observation that HIV attachment factors are not essential but augment infection. Antiviral therapies should focus on increasing virion size, for example through binding of zinc oxide nanoparticles to herpes simplex virus, hence making ΔSa_immob more negative, and thus reducing binding affinity at 37 °C.

Towards a thermodynamic mechanistic model for the effect of temperature on arthropod vector competence for transmission of arboviruses

Arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), bluetongue virus (BTV), dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infect their arthropod vectors over a range of average temperatures depending on the ambient temperature. How the transmission efficiency of an arbovirus (i.e. vector competence) varies with temperature influences not only the short term risk of arbovirus outbreaks in humans and livestock but also the long term impact of climate change on the geographical range of the virus. The strength of the interaction between viral surface (glyco)protein (GP) and the host cell receptor (Cr) on binding of virus to host cell is defined by the thermodynamic dissociation constant K_{d_receptor} which is assumed to equal 10^-3 M (at 37 °C) for binding of a sialic acid (SA) on the arthropod midgut epithelial cell surface to a SA-binding site on the surface of BTV, for example. Here virus binding affinity is modelled with increasing number of GP/Cr contacts at temperatures from 10 °C to 35 °C taking into account the change in entropy on immobilization of the whole virus on binding (ΔS_{a_immob}). Based on published data, three thermodynamic GP/Cr binding scenarios, namely enthalpy-driven, entropy-assisted and entropy-driven, are shown to affect the temperature sensitivity of virus binding in different ways. Thus for enthalpy-driven GP/Cr binding, viruses bind host cells much more strongly at 10 °C than 35 °C. A mechanistic model is developed for the number of arthropod midgut cells with bound virus and by building in a kinetic component for the rate of arbovirus replication and subsequent spread to the arthropod salivary glands, a model for the effect of temperature on vector competence is developed. The model separates the opposing effects of temperature on midgut cell binding affinity from the kinetic component of virogenesis. It successfully accommodates both increases in vector competence with temperature as for DENV and WNV in mosquitoes and decreases as for the CHIKV 2010-1909 strain in various populations of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Enhanced cell binding at lower temperatures through enthalpy-driven GP/Cr binding compensates for the lower replication rate to some degree such that some transmission can still occur at lower temperatures. In contrast, the strength of entropy-driven GP/Cr binding diminishes at low temperatures although there is no minimum temperature threshold for transmission efficiency. The magnitude of ΔS_{a_immob} is an important data gap. It is concluded that thermodynamic and kinetic data obtained at the molecular level will prove important in modelling vector competence with temperature.

Using thermodynamic parameters to calibrate a mechanistic dose-response for infection of a host by a virus

Assessing the risk of infection from emerging viruses or of existing viruses jumping the species barrier into novel hosts is limited by the lack of dose response data. The initial stages of the infection of a host by a virus involve a series of specific contact interactions between molecules in the host and on the virus surface. The strength of the interaction is quantified in the literature by the dissociation constant (K_d) which is determined experimentally and is specific for a given virus molecule/host molecule combination. Here, two stages of the initial infection process of host intestinal cells are modelled, namely escape of the virus in the oral challenge dose from the innate host defenses (e.g. mucin proteins in mucus) and the subsequent binding of any surviving virus to receptor molecules on the surface of the host epithelial cells. The strength of virus binding to host cells and to mucins may be quantified by the association constants, K_a and K_mucin, respectively. Here, a mechanistic dose-response model for the probability of infection of a host by a given virus dose is constructed using K_a and K_mucin which may be derived from published K_d values taking into account the number of specific molecular interactions. It is shown that the effectiveness of the mucus barrier is determined not only by the amount of mucin but also by the magnitude of K_mucin. At very high K_mucin values, slight excesses of mucin over virus are sufficient to remove all the virus according to the model. At lower K_mucin values, high numbers of virus may escape even with large excesses of mucin. The output from the mechanistic model is the probability (p₁) of infection by a single virion which is the parameter used in conventional dose-response models to predict the risk of infection of the host from the ingested dose. It is shown here how differences in K_a (due to molecular differences in an emerging virus strain or new host) affect p₁, and how these differences in K_a may be quantified in terms of two thermodynamic parameters, namely enthalpy and entropy. This provides the theoretical link between sequencing data and risk of infection. Lack of data on entropy is a limitation at present and may also affect our interpretation of K_d in terms of infectivity. It is concluded that thermodynamic approaches have a major contribution to make in developing dose-response models for emerging viruses.