Using thermodynamic equilibrium models to predict the effect of antiviral agents on infectivity: Theoretical application to SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses

Thermodynamic equilibrium models predict the infectivity of novel and emerging viruses using molecular data including the binding affinity of the virus to the host cell (as represented by the association constant K_{a_virus_T}) and the probability, p_virogenesis, of the virus replicating after entry to the cell. Here those models are adapted based on the principles of ligand binding to macromolecules to assess the effect on virus infectivity of inhibitor molecules which target specific proteins of the virus. Three types of inhibitor are considered using the thermodynamic equilibrium model for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection of the human lung with parameters for the strength and nature of the interaction between the target virus protein and the inhibitor molecule. The first is competitive inhibition of the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein (SGP) trimer binding to its human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor by unfractionated heparin (UFH). Using a novel approach presented here, a value of K_{a_virus_T} = 3.53 × 10¹⁷ M^-1 is calculated for SARS-CoV-2 from the IC₅₀ for inhibition by UFH of SARS-CoV-2 plaque formation in cell culture together with the dissociation constant K_VI of 0.73 × 10^-10 M reported for heparin binding to SARS-CoV-2 SGP trimer. Such a high K_{a_virus_T} limits the effectiveness of competitive inhibitors such as UFH. The second is the attachment of a nanoparticle such as a zinc oxide tetrapod (ZnOT) to the virus shell as for herpes simplex virus (HSV). The increase in molecular weight through ZnOT attachment is predicted to decrease K_{a_virus_T} by orders of magnitude by making the entropy change (ΔS_{a_immob}) on immobilisation of the ZnOT:virus complex on cell binding more negative than for the virus alone. According to the model, ZnOT acts synergistically with UFH at the IC₅₀ of 33 μg/cm³ which together decrease viral infectivity by 61,000-fold compared to the two-fold and three-fold decreases predicted for UFH alone at the IC₅₀ and for ZnOT alone respectively. According to the model here, UFH alone at its peak deliverable dose to the lung of 1,000 μg/cm³ only decreases infectivity by 31-fold. Practicable approaches to target and decrease ΔS_{a_immob} for respiratory viruses should therefore be considered. The combination of decreasing ΔS_{a_immob} together with blocking the interaction of virus surface protein with its host cell receptor may achieve synergistic effects for faecal-oral viruses and HSV. The third is reversible noncompetitive inhibition of the viral main protease (M^pro) for which the decrease in p_virogenesis is assumed to be proportional to the decrease in enzyme activity as predicted by enzyme kinetic equations for a given concentration of inhibitor which binds to M^pro with dissociation constant K_i. Virologists reporting viral inhibition studies are urged to report the concentration of cells in the cell culture experiment as this is a key parameter in estimating K_{a_virus_T} here.

Thermodynamic equilibrium dose-response models for MERS-CoV infection reveal a potential protective role of human lung mucus but not for SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infect the human respiratory tract. A prototype thermodynamic equilibrium model is presented here for the probability of the virions getting through the mucus barrier and infecting epithelial cells based on the binding affinity (Kmucin) of the virions to mucin molecules in the mucus and parameters for binding and infection of the epithelial cell. Both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 bind strongly to their cellular receptors, DDP4 and ACE2, respectively, and infect very efficiently both bronchus and lung ex vivo cell cultures which are not protected by a mucus barrier. According to the model, mucin binding could reduce the infectivity for MERS-CoV compared to SARS-CoV-2 by at least 100-fold depending on the magnitude of Kmucin. Specifically Kmucin values up to 106 M-1 have little protective effect and thus the mucus barrier would not remove SARS-CoV-2 which does not bind to sialic acids (SA) and hence would have a very low Kmucin. Depending on the viability of individual virions, the ID50 for SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be ~500 virions (viral RNA genomic copies) representing 1 to 2 pfu. In contrast MERS-CoV binds both SA and human mucin and a Kmucin of 5 × 109 M-1 as reported for lectins would mop up 99.83% of the virus according to the model with the ID50 for MERS-CoV estimated to be ~295,000 virions (viral RNA genomic copies) representing 819 pfu. This could in part explain why MERS-CoV is poorly transmitted from human to human compared to SARS-CoV-2. Some coronaviruses use an esterase to escape the mucin, although MERS-CoV does not. Instead, it is shown here that "clustering" of virions into single aerosol particles as recently reported for rotavirus in extracellular vesicles could provide a co-operative mechanism whereby MERS-CoV could theoretically overcome the mucin barrier locally and a small proportion of 10 μm diameter aerosol particles could contain ~70 virions based on reported maximum levels in saliva. Although recent evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 initiates infection in the nasal epithelium, the thermodynamic equilibrium models presented here could complement published approaches for modelling the physical entry of pathogens to the lung based on the fate and transport of the pathogen particles (as for anthrax spores) to develop a dose-response model for aerosol exposure to respiratory viruses. This would enable the infectivity through aerosols to be defined based on molecular parameters as well as physical parameters. The role of the spike proteins of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 binding to SA and heparan sulphate, respectively, may be to aid non-specific attachment to the host cell. It is proposed that a high Kmucin is the cost for subsequent binding of MERS-CoV to SAs on the cell surface to partially overcome the unfavourable entropy of immobilisation as the virus adopts the correct orientation for spike protein interactions with its protein cellular receptor DPP4.

Assessing the aggregated probability of entry of a novel prion disease agent into the United Kingdom

In 2018 prion disease was detected in camels at an abattoir in Algeria for the first time. The emergence of prion disease in this species made it prudent to assess the probability of entry of the pathogen into the United Kingdom (UK) from this region. Potentially contaminated products were identified as evidenced by other prion diseases. The aggregated probability of entry of the pathogen was estimated as very high and high for legal milk and cheese imports respectively and very high, high and high for illegal meat, milk and cheese products respectively. This aggregated probability represents a qualitative assessment of the probability of one or more entry events per year into the UK; it gives no indication of the number of entry events per year. The uncertainty associated with these estimates was high due to the unknown variation in prevalence of infection in camels and an uncertain number and type of illegal products entering the UK. Potential public health implications of this pathogen are unknown although there is currently no evidence of zoonotic transmission of prion diseases other than bovine spongiform encephalopathy to humans.

Predicting spread and effective control measures for African swine fever-Should we blame the boars?

An ongoing, continually spreading, outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), following its identification in Georgia in 2007, has resulted in 17 European and 12 Asian countries reporting cases by April 2020, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. Curtailing further spread of ASF requires understanding of the transmission pathways of the disease. ASF is self-sustaining in the wild boar population, and they have been implicated as one of the main drivers of transmission within Europe. We developed a spatially explicit model to estimate the risk of infection with ASF in wild boar and pigs due to natural movement of wild boar that is applicable across the whole of Europe. We demonstrate the model by using it to predict the probability that early cases of ASF in Poland were caused by wild boar dispersion. The risk of infection in 2015 is computed due to wild boar cases in Poland in 2014, compared against reported cases in 2015, and then the procedure is repeated for 2015-2016. We find that long- and medium-distance spread of ASF (i.e. >30 km) is unlikely to have occurred due to wild boar dispersal, due in part to the generally short distances wild boar will travel (<20 km on average). We also predict the relative success of different control strategies in 2015, if they were implemented in 2014. Results suggest that hunting of wild boar reduces the number of new cases, but a larger region is at risk of ASF compared with no control measure. Alternatively, introducing wild boar-proof fencing reduces the size of the region at risk in 2015, but not the total number of cases. Overall, our model suggests wild boar movement is only responsible for local transmission of disease; thus, other pathways are more dominant in medium- and long-distance spread of the disease.

How virus size and attachment parameters affect the temperature sensitivity of virus binding to host cells: Predictions of a thermodynamic model for arboviruses and HIV

Virus binding to host cells involves specific interactions between viral (glyco)proteins (GP) and host cell surface receptors (Cr) (protein or sialic acid (SA)). The magnitude of the enthalpy of association changes with temperature according to the change in heat capacity (ΔCp) on GP/Cr binding, being little affected for avian influenza virus (AIV) haemagglutinin (HA) binding to SA (ΔCp = 0 kJ/mol/K) but greatly affected for HIV gp120 binding to CD4 receptor (ΔCp = -5.0 kJ/mol/K). A thermodynamic model developed here predicts that values of ΔCp from 0 to ~-2.0 kJ/mol/K have relatively little impact on the temperature sensitivity of the number of mosquito midgut cells with bound arbovirus, while intermediate values of ΔCp of ~-3.0 kJ/mol/K give a peak binding at a temperature of ~20 °C as observed experimentally for Western equine encephalitis virus. More negative values of ΔCp greatly decrease arbovirus binding at temperatures below ~20 °C. Thus to promote transmission at low temperatures, arboviruses may benefit from ΔCp ~ 0 kJ/mol/K as for HA/SA and it is interesting that bluetongue virus binds to SA in midge midguts. Large negative values of ΔCp as for HIV gp120:CD4 diminish binding at 37 °C. Of greater importance, however, is the decrease in entropy of the whole virus (ΔSa_immob) on its immobilisation on the host cell surface. ΔSa_immob presents a repulsive force which the enthalpy-driven GP/Cr interactions weakened at higher temperatures struggle to overcome. ΔSa_immob is more negative (less favourable) for larger diameter viruses which therefore show diminished binding at higher temperatures than smaller viruses. It is proposed that small size phenotype through a less negative ΔSa_immob is selected for viruses infecting warmer hosts thus explaining the observation that virion volume decreases with increasing host temperature from 0 °C to 40 °C in the case of dsDNA viruses. Compared to arboviruses which also infect warm-blooded vertebrates, HIV is large at 134 nm diameter and thus would have a large negative ΔSa_immob which would diminish its binding at human body temperature. It is proposed that prior non-specific binding of HIV through attachment factors takes much of the entropy loss for ΔSa_immob so enhancing subsequent specific gp120:CD4 binding at 37 °C. This is consistent with the observation that HIV attachment factors are not essential but augment infection. Antiviral therapies should focus on increasing virion size, for example through binding of zinc oxide nanoparticles to herpes simplex virus, hence making ΔSa_immob more negative, and thus reducing binding affinity at 37 °C.

The Risk of Infection by African Swine Fever Virus in European Swine Through Boar Movement and Legal Trade of Pigs and Pig Meat

African swine fever (ASF) is currently spreading westwards throughout Europe and eastwards into China, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. A generic risk assessment framework is used to determine the probability of first infection with ASF virus (ASFV) at a fine spatial scale across European Union Member States. The framework aims to assist risk managers across Europe with their ASF surveillance and intervention activities. Performing the risk assessment at a fine spatial scale allows for hot-spot surveillance, which can aid risk managers by directing surveillance or intervention resources at those areas or pathways deemed most at risk, and hence enables prioritization of limited resources. We use 2018 cases of ASF to estimate prevalence of the disease in both wild boar and pig populations and compute the risk of initial infection for 2019 at a 100 km2 cell resolution via three potential pathways: legal trade in live pigs, natural movement of wild boar, and legal trade in pig meat products. We consider the number of pigs, boar and amount of pig meat entering our area of interest, the prevalence of the disease in the origin country, the probability of exposure of susceptible pigs or boar in the area of interest to introduced infected pigs, boar, or meat from an infected pig, and the probability of transmission to susceptible animals. We provide maps across Europe indicating regions at highest risk of initial infection. Results indicate that the risk of ASF in 2019 was predominantly focused on those regions which already had numerous cases in 2018 (Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania, and Latvia). The riskiest pathway for ASFV transmission to pigs was the movement of wild boar for Eastern European countries and legal trade of pigs for Western European countries. New infections are more likely to occur in wild boar rather than pigs, for both the pig meat and wild boar movement pathways. Our results provide an opportunity to focus surveillance activities and thus increase our ability to detect ASF introductions earlier, a necessary requirement if we are to successfully control the spread of this devastating disease for the pig industry.

A qualitative risk assessment of cleansing and disinfection requirements after an avian influenza outbreak in commercial poultry

1. During an avian influenza (AI) outbreak in the United Kingdom, the joint aim of the poultry industry and the Government is to eliminate and prevent the spread of infection, through control measures based on the current European Union (EU) Council Directive (2005/94/EC). An essential part of these measures is the cleansing and disinfection (C&D) of infected premises.2. This risk assessment assessed the differences in re-infection in a repopulated flock if the EU Directive is interpreted to permit secondary C&D to be undertaken either with or without dismantling complex equipment. The assessment estimated the probability of virus survival on different types of equipment in a depopulated contaminated poultry house before and after preliminary and secondary C&D procedures. A risk matrix spreadsheet tool was used to carry out the assessment and concluded that, provided secondary C&D is carried out with due diligence (i.e. carried out to a defined code of practice as agreed by both industry and policymakers), the risk of re-infection from equipment is negligible, both with and without dismantling complex equipment in all farm types considered.3. By considering the equipment types individually, the assessment identified those areas of the house which may still contain viable virus post-preliminary C&D and on which attention should be focussed during secondary C&D. The generic risk pathway and matrix spreadsheet tool have the potential to be used for other pathogens and species, given appropriate data.

Towards a thermodynamic mechanistic model for the effect of temperature on arthropod vector competence for transmission of arboviruses

Arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), bluetongue virus (BTV), dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infect their arthropod vectors over a range of average temperatures depending on the ambient temperature. How the transmission efficiency of an arbovirus (i.e. vector competence) varies with temperature influences not only the short term risk of arbovirus outbreaks in humans and livestock but also the long term impact of climate change on the geographical range of the virus. The strength of the interaction between viral surface (glyco)protein (GP) and the host cell receptor (Cr) on binding of virus to host cell is defined by the thermodynamic dissociation constant K_{d_receptor} which is assumed to equal 10^-3 M (at 37 °C) for binding of a sialic acid (SA) on the arthropod midgut epithelial cell surface to a SA-binding site on the surface of BTV, for example. Here virus binding affinity is modelled with increasing number of GP/Cr contacts at temperatures from 10 °C to 35 °C taking into account the change in entropy on immobilization of the whole virus on binding (ΔS_{a_immob}). Based on published data, three thermodynamic GP/Cr binding scenarios, namely enthalpy-driven, entropy-assisted and entropy-driven, are shown to affect the temperature sensitivity of virus binding in different ways. Thus for enthalpy-driven GP/Cr binding, viruses bind host cells much more strongly at 10 °C than 35 °C. A mechanistic model is developed for the number of arthropod midgut cells with bound virus and by building in a kinetic component for the rate of arbovirus replication and subsequent spread to the arthropod salivary glands, a model for the effect of temperature on vector competence is developed. The model separates the opposing effects of temperature on midgut cell binding affinity from the kinetic component of virogenesis. It successfully accommodates both increases in vector competence with temperature as for DENV and WNV in mosquitoes and decreases as for the CHIKV 2010-1909 strain in various populations of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Enhanced cell binding at lower temperatures through enthalpy-driven GP/Cr binding compensates for the lower replication rate to some degree such that some transmission can still occur at lower temperatures. In contrast, the strength of entropy-driven GP/Cr binding diminishes at low temperatures although there is no minimum temperature threshold for transmission efficiency. The magnitude of ΔS_{a_immob} is an important data gap. It is concluded that thermodynamic and kinetic data obtained at the molecular level will prove important in modelling vector competence with temperature.

Risk assessments for quality-assured, source-segregated composts and anaerobic digestates for a circular bioeconomy in the UK

A circular economy relies on demonstrating the quality and environmental safety of wastes that are recovered and reused as products. Policy-level risk assessments, using generalised exposure scenarios, and informed by stakeholder communities have been used to appraise the acceptability of necessary changes to legislation, allowing wastes to be valued, reused and marketed. Through an extensive risk assessment exercise, summarised in this paper, we explore the burden of proof required to offer safety assurance to consumer and brand-sensitive food sectors in light of attempts to declassify, as wastes, quality-assured, source-segregated compost and anaerobic digestate products in the United Kingdom. We report the residual microbiological and chemical risks estimated for both products in land application scenarios and discuss these in the context of an emerging UK bioeconomy worth £52bn per annum. Using plausible worst case assumptions, as demanded by the quality food sector, risk estimates and hazard quotients were estimated to be low or negligible. For example, the human health risk of E. coli 0157 illness from exposure to microbial residuals in quality-assured composts, through a ready-to-eat vegetable consumption exposure route, was estimated at ~10^-8 per person per annum. For anaerobic digestion residues, 7 × 10^-3cases of E. coli 0157 were estimated per annum, a potential contribution of 0.0007% of total UK cases. Hazard quotients for potential chemical contaminants in both products were insufficient in magnitude to merit detailed quantitative risk assessments. Stakeholder engagement and expert review was also a substantive feature of this study. We conclude that quality-assured, source-segregated products applied to land, under UK quality protocols and waste processing standards, pose negligible risks to human, animal, environmental and crop receptors, providing that risk management controls set within the standards and protocols are adhered to.

A generic framework for spatial quantitative risk assessments of infectious diseases: Lumpy skin disease case study

The increase in availability of spatial data and the technological advances to handle such data allow for subsequent improvements in our ability to assess risk in a spatial setting. We provide a generic framework for quantitative risk assessments of disease introduction that capitalizes on these new data. It can be adopted across multiple spatial scales, for any pathogen, method of transmission or location. The framework incorporates the risk of initial infection in a previously uninfected location due to registered movement (e.g., trade) and unregistered movement (e.g., daily movements of wild animals). We discuss the steps of the framework and the data required to compute it. We then outline how this framework is applied for a single pathway using lumpy skin disease as a case study, a disease which had an outbreak in the Balkans in 2016. We calculate the risk of initial infection for the rest of Europe in 2016 due to trade. We perform the risk assessment on 3 spatial scales-countries, regions within countries and individual farms. We find that Croatia (assuming no vaccination occurred) has the highest mean probability of infection, with Italy, Hungary and Spain following. Including import detection of infected trade does reduce risk but this reduction is proportionally lower for countries with highest risk. The risk assessment results are consistent across the spatial scales, while in addition, at the finer spatial scales, it highlights specific areas or individual locations of countries on which to focus surveillance.

Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment

The EUFORA fellowship programme ‘Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment’ was proposed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), a British governmental institution responsible for safeguarding animal and plant health in the UK. The working programme, which was organised into four different modules, covered a wide range of aspects related to risk assessment including identification of emerging risks, risk prioritisation methods, scanning surveillance, food production exposure assessment and import risk assessment of animal and human infectious diseases. Over the course of the year, the Fellow had the opportunity to work for international projects with experts in these disciplines. This allowed for significant opportunities to ‘learn‐by‐doing’ the methods and the techniques that are employed to assess animal health and food safety risks. Moreover, he consolidated his knowledge by attending several training courses and academic lessons, submitting scientific papers to peer‐reviewed journals and conferences, giving presentations and using modelling software.

Using thermodynamic parameters to calibrate a mechanistic dose-response for infection of a host by a virus

Assessing the risk of infection from emerging viruses or of existing viruses jumping the species barrier into novel hosts is limited by the lack of dose response data. The initial stages of the infection of a host by a virus involve a series of specific contact interactions between molecules in the host and on the virus surface. The strength of the interaction is quantified in the literature by the dissociation constant (K_d) which is determined experimentally and is specific for a given virus molecule/host molecule combination. Here, two stages of the initial infection process of host intestinal cells are modelled, namely escape of the virus in the oral challenge dose from the innate host defenses (e.g. mucin proteins in mucus) and the subsequent binding of any surviving virus to receptor molecules on the surface of the host epithelial cells. The strength of virus binding to host cells and to mucins may be quantified by the association constants, K_a and K_mucin, respectively. Here, a mechanistic dose-response model for the probability of infection of a host by a given virus dose is constructed using K_a and K_mucin which may be derived from published K_d values taking into account the number of specific molecular interactions. It is shown that the effectiveness of the mucus barrier is determined not only by the amount of mucin but also by the magnitude of K_mucin. At very high K_mucin values, slight excesses of mucin over virus are sufficient to remove all the virus according to the model. At lower K_mucin values, high numbers of virus may escape even with large excesses of mucin. The output from the mechanistic model is the probability (p₁) of infection by a single virion which is the parameter used in conventional dose-response models to predict the risk of infection of the host from the ingested dose. It is shown here how differences in K_a (due to molecular differences in an emerging virus strain or new host) affect p₁, and how these differences in K_a may be quantified in terms of two thermodynamic parameters, namely enthalpy and entropy. This provides the theoretical link between sequencing data and risk of infection. Lack of data on entropy is a limitation at present and may also affect our interpretation of K_d in terms of infectivity. It is concluded that thermodynamic approaches have a major contribution to make in developing dose-response models for emerging viruses.

Application of a quantitative entry assessment model to compare the relative risk of incursion of zoonotic bat-borne viruses into European Union Member States

This paper presents a quantitative assessment model for the risk of entry of zoonotic bat-borne viruses into the European Union (EU). The model considers four routes of introduction: human travel, legal trade of products, live animal imports and illegal import of bushmeat and was applied to five virus outbreak scenarios. Two scenarios were considered for Zaire ebolavirus (wEBOV, cEBOV) and other scenarios for Hendra virus, Marburg virus (MARV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The use of the same framework and generic data sources for all EU Member States (MS) allows for a relative comparison of the probability of virus introduction and of the importance of the routes of introduction among MSs. According to the model wEBOV posed the highest risk of an introduction event within the EU, followed by MARV and MERS-CoV. However, the main route of introduction differed, with wEBOV and MERS-CoV most likely through human travel and MARV through legal trade of foodstuffs. The relative risks to EU MSs as entry points also varied between outbreak scenarios, highlighting the heterogeneity in global trade and travel to the EU MSs. The model has the capability to allow for a continual updating of the risk estimate using new data as, and when, it becomes available. The model provides an horizon scanning tool for use when available data are limited and, therefore, the absolute risk estimates often have high uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis suggested virus prevalence in bats has a large influence on the results; a 90% reduction in prevalence reduced the risk of introduction considerably and resulted in the relative ranking of MARV falling below that for MERS-CoV, due to this parameter disproportionately affecting the risk of introduction from the trade route over human travel.

A Generic Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for the Entry of Bat-Borne Zoonotic Viruses into the European Union

Bat-borne viruses have been linked to a number of zoonotic diseases; in 2014 there have been human cases of Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Ebola virus in West and Central Africa. Here we describe a model designed to provide initial quantitative predictions of the risk of entry of such viruses to European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) through four routes: human travel, legal trade (e.g. fruit and animal products), live animal movements and illegal importation of bushmeat. The model utilises available datasets to assess the movement via these routes between individual countries of the world and EU MSs. These data are combined with virus specific data to assess the relative risk of entry between EU MSs. As a case study, the model was parameterised for NiV. Scenario analyses showed that the selection of exporting countries with NiV and potentially contaminated trade products were essential to the accuracy of all model outputs. Uncertainty analyses of other model parameters identified that the model expected number of years to an introduction event within the EU was highly susceptible to the prevalence of NiV in bats. The relative rankings of the MSs and routes, however, were more robust. The UK, the Netherlands and Germany were consistently the most likely points of entry and the ranking of most MSs varied by no more than three places (maximum variation five places). Legal trade was consistently the most likely route of entry, only falling below human travel when the estimate of the prevalence of NiV in bats was particularly low. Any model-based calculation is dependent on the data available to feed into the model and there are distinct gaps in our knowledge, particularly in regard to various pathogen/virus as well as host/bat characteristics. However, the strengths of this model lie in the provision of relative comparisons of risk among routes and MSs. The potential for expansion of the model to include other routes and viruses and the possibility of rapid parameterisation demonstrates its potential for use in an outbreak situation.

Could Bat Cell Temperature and Filovirus Filament Length Explain the Emergence of Ebola Virus in Mammals? Predictions of a Thermodynamic Model

The host reservoir of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) remains elusive. One suggestion is that EBOV emerges in mammals when the precursor virus jumps from mayflies (or other riverine insects) to insectivorous bats. However, this does not fit with the current view that filoviruses cannot infect arthropods. Here, it is first argued that the evidence that arthropods are refractory is not definitive. Second, it is proposed that a combination of filovirus filament length and the high temperature (~42°C) experienced by an insect virus ingested by a flying bat, together with the large number of insects eaten by bats (e.g. during an ephemeral mass emergence of mayflies), facilitate jumping the species barrier. The length of a filovirus filament is related to the number of genome copies (GC). Predictions from a preliminary thermodynamic model developed here suggest that filament length could greatly affect EBOV infectivity to mammalian cells with infectivity peaking for filaments of a certain length. Importantly, the infectivity to mammals of even short filaments may be more than one million-fold higher than that for the single GC virion. Third, it is proposed that at the high temperature within the bat, the phospholipid phosphatidylserine in the virus envelope promotes filament formation through fusion of single GC particles within the ingested insect, thus hugely increasing their infectivity to bats. Forth, according to the thermodynamic model, increasing the temperature from 27°C (insect cell temperature at average air temperature in Guinea, West Africa) to 42°C (bat) could increase the affinity of the filaments for bat cells by 1-2 orders of magnitude, while having no effect on the binding affinity of the single GC virions. The thermodynamic model developed here is supported by the counterintuitive observation that high glycoprotein densities on the EBOV surface reduce its infectivity in contrast to other viruses such as HIV.

Hyalomma ticks on northward migrating birds in southern Spain: Implications for the risk of entry of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus to Great Britain

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a zoonotic virus transmitted by Hyalomma ticks, the immature stages of which may be carried by migratory birds. In this study, a total of 12 Hyalomma ticks were recovered from five of 228 migratory birds trapped in Spring, 2012 in southern Spain along the East Atlantic flyway. All collected ticks tested negative for CCHFV. While most birds had zero Hyalomma ticks, two individuals had four and five ticks each and the statistical distribution of Hyalomma tick counts per bird is over-dispersed compared to the Poisson distribution, demonstrating the need for intensive sampling studies to avoid underestimating the total number of ticks. Rates of tick exchange on migratory birds during their northwards migration will affect the probability that a Hyalomma tick entering Great Britain is positive for CCHFV. Drawing on published data, evidence is presented that the latitude of a European country affects the probability of entry of Hyalomma ticks on wild birds. Further data on Hyalomma infestation rates and tick exchange rates are required along the East Atlantic flyway to further our understanding of the origin of Hyalomma ticks (i.e., Africa or southern Europe) and hence the probability of entry of CCHFV into GB.

Drivers for emerging issues in animal and plant health

The history of agriculture includes many animal and plant disease events that have had major consequences for the sector, as well as for humans. At the same time, human activities beyond agriculture have often driven the emergence of diseases. The more that humans expand the footprint of the global population, encroach into natural habitats, alter these habitats to extract resources and intensify food production, as well as move animals, people and commodities along with the pathogens they carry, the greater the potential for pathogens and pests to spread and for infection to emerge or re-emerge. While essential to human well-being, producing food also plays a major role in disease dynamics. The risk of emergence of pests and pathogens has increased as a consequence of global changes in the way food is produced, moved and consumed. Climate change is likely to increase pressure on the availability of food and provide newly suitable conditions for invasive pests and pathogens. Human population displacements due to economic, political and humanitarian crises represent another set of potential drivers for emerging issues. The overlapping drivers of plant, animal and human disease emergence and environmental changes point towards the concept of 'One Health'. This paradigm underlines the urgent need to understand the influence of human behaviour and incorporate this understanding into our approach to emerging risks. For this, we face two major challenges. One is cultural; the second is methodological. We have to look at systems not under the narrow view of specific hazards but with a wider approach to system dynamics, and consider a broad spectrum of potential outcomes in terms of risk. In addition, we have to make sense of the vast amounts of data that are available in the modern age. This paper aims to help in preparing for the cultural and methodological shifts needed in our approach to emerging risks.

The challenge of using experimental infectivity data in risk assessment for Ebola virus: why ecology may be important

Analysis of published data shows that experimental passaging of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) in guinea pigs changes the risk of infection per plaque-forming unit (PFU), increasing infectivity to some species while decreasing infectivity to others. Thus, a PFU of monkey-adapted EBOV is 10(7) -fold more lethal to mice than a PFU adapted to guinea pigs. The first conclusion is that the infectivity of EBOV to humans may depend on the identity of the donor species itself and, on the basis of limited epidemiological data, the question is raised as to whether bat-adapted EBOV is less infectious to humans than nonhuman primate (NHP)-adapted EBOV. Wildlife species such as bats, duikers and NHPs are naturally infected by EBOV through different species giving rise to EBOV with different wildlife species-passage histories (heritages). Based on the ecology of these wildlife species, three broad 'types' of EBOV-infected bushmeat are postulated reflecting differences in the number of passages within a given species, and hence the degree of adaptation of the EBOV present. The second conclusion is that the prior species-transmission chain may affect the infectivity to humans per PFU for EBOV from individuals of the same species. This is supported by the finding that the related Marburg marburgvirus requires ten passages in mice to fully adapt. It is even possible that the evolutionary trajectory of EBOV could vary in individuals of the same species giving rise to variants which are more or less virulent to humans and that the probability of a given trajectory is related to the heritage. Overall the ecology of the donor species (e.g. dog or bushmeat species) at the level of the individual animal itself may determine the risk of infection per PFU to humans reflecting the heritage of the virus and may contribute to the sporadic nature of EBOV outbreaks.

Applications of omics approaches to the development of microbiological risk assessment using RNA virus dose-response models as a case study

T e in the amount of ‘omics’ data available and in our ability to interpret those data. The aim of this paper was to consider how omics techniques can be used to improve and refine microbiological risk assessment, using dose–response models for RNA viruses, with particular reference to norovirus through the oral route as the case study. The dose–response model for initial infection in the gastrointestinal tract is broken down into the component steps at the molecular level and the feasibility of assigning probabilities to each step assessed. The molecular mechanisms are not sufficiently well understood at present to enable quantitative estimation of probabilities on the basis of omics data. At present, the great strength of gene sequence data appears to be in giving information on the distribution and proportion of susceptible genotypes (for example due to the presence of the appropriate pathogen‐binding receptor) in the host population rather than in predicting specificities from the amino acid sequences concurrently obtained. The nature of the mutant spectrum in RNA viruses greatly complicates the application of omics approaches to the development of mechanistic dose–response models and prevents prediction of risks of disease progression (given infection has occurred) at the level of the individual host. However, molecular markers in the host and virus may enable more broad predictions to be made about the consequences of exposure in a population. In an alternative approach, comparing the results of deep sequencing of RNA viruses in the faeces/vomitus from donor humans with those from their infected recipients may enable direct estimates of the average probability of infection per virion to be made.

Potential for introduction of bat-borne zoonotic viruses into the EU: a review

Bat-borne viruses can pose a serious threat to human health, with examples including Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Malaysia, and Marburg virus (MARV) in Africa. To date, significant human outbreaks of such viruses have not been reported in the European Union (EU). However, EU countries have strong historical links with many of the countries where NiV and MARV are present and a corresponding high volume of commercial trade and human travel, which poses a potential risk of introduction of these viruses into the EU. In assessing the risks of introduction of these bat-borne zoonotic viruses to the EU, it is important to consider the location and range of bat species known to be susceptible to infection, together with the virus prevalence, seasonality of viral pulses, duration of infection and titre of virus in different bat tissues. In this paper, we review the current scientific knowledge of all these factors, in relation to the introduction of NiV and MARV into the EU.

Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level

AIMS

To estimate qualitatively the probabilities of release (or entry) of Eurasian lineage H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into Great Britain (GB), the Netherlands and Italy through selected higher risk species of migratory water bird.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The probabilities of one or more release events of H5N1 HPAI per year (Pre(lease)) were estimated qualitatively for 15 avian species, including swans, geese, ducks and gulls, by assessing the prevalence of H5N1 HPAI in different regions of the world (weighted to 2009) and estimates of the total numbers of birds migrating from each of those regions. The release assessment accommodated the migration times for each species in relation to the probabilities of their surviving infection and shedding virus on arrival. Although the predicted probabilities of release of H5N1 per individual bird per year were low, very low or negligible, Pre(lease) was high for a few species reflecting the high numbers of birds migrating from some regions. Values of Pre(lease) were generally higher for the Netherlands than for GB, while ducks and gulls from Africa presented higher probabilities to Italy compared to the Netherlands and GB.

CONCLUSIONS

Bird species with high values of Pre(lease) in GB, the Netherlands and Italy generally originate from within Europe based on data for global prevalence of H5N1 between 2003 and 2009 weighted to 2009. Potential long-distance transfer of H5N1 HPAI from North Asia and Eurasia to GB, the Netherlands and Italy is limited to a few species and does not occur from South-East Asia, an area where H5N1 is endemic.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

The approach accommodates biogeographical conditions and variability in the estimated worldwide prevalence of the virus. The outputs of this release assessment can be used to inform surveillance activities through focusing on certain species and migratory pathways.

Epidemic threats to the European Union: expert views on six virus groups

In recent years, several animal disease epidemics have occurred within the European Union (EU). At the 4th Annual Meeting of the EPIZONE network (7-10 June 2010, St. Malo, France), an interactive session was run to elicit the opinions of delegates on a pre-defined list of epidemic threats to the EU. Responses from over 190 delegates, to questions relating to impact and likelihood, were used to rank six virus groups with respect to their perceived threat now (2010) and in 2020. The combined opinions of all delegates suggested that, from the pre-selected list of virus groups, foot-and-mouth disease and influenza are currently of most concern. Delegates thought that influenza would be less of a threat and zoonotic arboviruses would be more of a threat in 2020. Although the virus group rankings should not be taken as definitive, the results could be used in conjunction with experimental and field data, by scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders when assessing and managing risks associated with these virus groups.

Horizon scanning for emergence of new viruses: from constructing complex scenarios to online games

Horizon scanning techniques can be developed to identify novel routes and sources for the emergence of viruses in the medium to long term. Central to horizon scanning is prediction of the complex scenarios through which viruses could emerge before they occur. One approach involves 'spidergrams' in which complex scenarios are generated by combining factors randomly selected from different categories of events. Spidergrams provide a framework for how different factors could interact, irrespective of the virus, and also enable testing of combinations not previously considered but which would be 'tested' in nature by a virus. The emergence of viruses through new routes is often related to changes, for example, in environmental and social factors, and the Internet will undoubtedly be used to identify long-term trends for consideration. In addition, online games may provide horizon scanners with suggestions for new routes and strategies that could be used by emerging viruses.

Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds

AIMS

To predict the risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in livestock in Europe introduced through immature Hyalomma marginatum ticks on migratory birds under current conditions and in the decade 2075-2084 under a climate-change scenario.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A spatial risk map of Europe comprising 14 282 grid cells (25 × 25 km) was constructed using three data sources: (i) ranges and abundances of four species of bird which migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe each spring, namely Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus), Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) and Common quail (Coturnix coturnix); (ii) UK Met Office HadRM3 spring temperatures for prediction of moulting success of immature H. marginatum ticks and (iii) livestock densities. On average, the number of grid cells in Europe predicted to have at least one CCHFV incursion in livestock in spring was 1·04 per year for the decade 2005-2014 and 1·03 per year for the decade 2075-2084. In general with the assumed climate-change scenario, the risk increased in northern Europe but decreased in central and southern Europe, although there is considerable local variation in the trends.

CONCLUSIONS

The absolute risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through ticks introduced by four abundant species of migratory bird (totalling 120 million individual birds) is very low. Climate change has opposing effects, increasing the success of the moult of the nymphal ticks into adults but decreasing the projected abundance of birds by 34% in this model.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

For Europe, climate change is not predicted to increase the overall risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through infected ticks introduced by these four migratory bird species.

The feasibility of developing a risk assessment for the impact of climate change on the emergence of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in livestock in Europe: a review

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is one of the most widespread of all medically important arboviruses with ticks of the Hyalomma spp. serving as the main vectors. Infection of livestock by CCHFV serves as a route of exposure to humans, as a reservoir of disease and as a route of importation. This study discusses the pathways and data requirements for a qualitative risk assessment for the emergence of CCHFV in livestock in Europe. A risk map approach is proposed based on layers that include the potential routes of release (e.g. by migrating birds carrying infected ticks) together with the main components for exposure, namely the distributions of the tick vectors, the small vertebrate host reservoirs and the livestock. A layer on landscape fragmentation serves as a surrogate for proximity of livestock to the tick cycle. Although the impact of climate change on the emergence of CCHF is not clear, comparing the distribution of risk factors in each layer currently with those predicted in the 2080s with climate change can be used to speculate how potential high-risk areas may shift. According to the risk pathway, transstadial and/or transovarial transmission in the tick vector are crucial for CCHFV spread. Vector competence and tick vector switching, however, remain critical factors for CCHFV colonization of new regions in Europe. The species of migratory bird is also an important consideration in the release assessment with greater abundance and biodiversity of ground-dwelling birds in southern Europe than in northern Europe.

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.

The infectivity of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy agent at low doses: the importance of phospholipid

The issue of whether the mechanism of infection is independent or co-operative for low doses of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) agent is critical for risk assessment. The susceptibility (and hence ID(50)) of individuals with the same prion protein (PrP) genotype may vary considerably with a small proportion being very susceptible. Assuming independent action, the incubation period (IP) would continue to increase until the dose is below the ID(50) of the most susceptible individuals in the experiment, at which point it would become constant. This may explain the observed increase in IP with decreasing dose below the apparent ID(50) in experiments with untreated TSE agent. In contrast, IPs for autoclaved or NaOH-treated TSE agent increase greatly at doses <ID(50) suggesting strong co-operative action, or even a threshold. It is proposed here that the unit of infectivity for prion disease is a nucleation seed comprised of PrP and host phospholipid (PL). PL would play a structural role through mediating protein/lipid interactions with PrP. Heating or alkali treatment destroys the PL breaking up the nucleation seeds, which require long IPs to reform at low doses. Replenishing those inactivated PLs with host PL would explain how the phenotypic effect of long IP at low dose is lost on subpassage. It is proposed here that strain thermostability is controlled by the nature and strength of the PrP/PL interactions, which are independent of the host PrP genotype. Although repeated oral exposure to low doses of scrapie is less harmful than a single large exposure, this effect may reflect interference by competition rather than diminished risks due to a co-operative effect, and is of little importance for 'one-off' low-dose environmental exposures.

A commentary on recent water safety initiatives in the context of water utility risk management

Over the last decade, suppliers of drinking water have recognised the limitations of relying solely on end-product monitoring to ensure safe water quality and have sought to reinforce their approach by adopting preventative strategies where risks are proactively identified, assessed and managed. This is leading to the development of water safety plans; structured 'route maps' for managing risks to water supply, from catchment to consumer taps. This paper reviews the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) procedure on which many water safety plans are based and considers its appropriateness in the context of drinking water risk management. We examine water safety plans in a broad context, looking at a variety of monitoring, optimisation and risk management initiatives that can be taken to improve drinking water safety. These are cross-compared using a simple framework that facilitates an integrated approach to water safety. Finally, we look at how risk management practices are being integrated across water companies and how this is likely to affect the future development of water safety plans.

BSE risk assessments in the UK: a risk tradeoff?

Risk assessments for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) should be based on the group risk and not the median individual risk. The group risk is calculated from the arithmetic mean risk, which in the case of dorsal root ganglia, is a factor of 50-fold higher than the median. For environmental routes, the arithmetic mean exposure is sufficient for risk assessment, while for food-borne routes failure to accommodate the variation in exposures to individuals across the UK population could overestimate the group risk considerably. Ignoring prion destruction by cooking could overestimate the food-borne risks still further. The recent estimate for the arithmetic mean cow-to-man species barrier of 4000 does not take into accounts either of these factors and thus may be too high. Until evidence for a threshold dose is demonstrated, public health scientists should avoid assessing safety on the basis of a 'minimum infective dose'. The incubation period observed in cattle-feeding studies, when completed, would continue to increase with decreasing dose below the ID50if there is a threshold or co-operative effect. The question is raised of whether fears over BSE in drinking water contributed to the spread of foot-and-mouth disease across the UK in 2001; a risk tradeoff.

Matrix effects, nonuniform reduction and dispersion in risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157

AIMS

To assess the importance of the variation (or spatial heterogeneity) in the doses of Escherichia coli O157 ingested by individuals when estimating the group risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Exposure scenarios, which differed in how the same total number of E. coli O157 cells were distributed across a group of persons were simulated and the risks of illness in the population estimated using available dose-response data. Differences in the degree of spatial heterogeneity within routes such as direct contact with sheep faeces, consumption of hamburgers and drinking water could affect the magnitude of the predicted risk by over 1000-fold and contribute to an apparent matrix effect. The effect of barriers, such as cooking, on the spatial heterogeneity of E. coli O157 cells remaining in undercooked hamburgers affects the magnitude of the risk by eightfold. Furthermore, a 100-fold reduction in E. coli O157 concentrations by cooking may reduce the risk of illness from consumption of the burgers by only 12-fold (and not the 100-fold perhaps expected).

CONCLUSIONS

The development of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) models for E. coli O157 requires information on the degree of dispersion of faeces within routes such as the environment, food and water, so that the proportion of persons actually exposed to faeces, and hence pathogen, can be quantified. The effect of dispersion is greater for pathogens for which there is greater variation in susceptibility within the population.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

In terms of public health protection, minimizing the dispersion of cattle/sheep faeces reduces the risks to humans by confining exposure to fewer individuals. For MRA, estimating the reduction in risk by a treatment process, e.g. cooking, is complicated by spatial heterogeneity. Regional differences in dispersion (e.g. because of rainfall) may contribute to regional differences in the observed attack rate.

Land application of treated sewage sludge: quantifying pathogen risks from consumption of crops

AIMS

To predict the number of humans in the UK infected through consumption of root crops grown on agricultural land to which treated sewage sludge has been applied in accordance with the current regulations and guidance (Safe Sludge Matrix).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Quantitative risk assessments based on the source, pathway, receptor approach are developed for seven pathogens, namely salmonellas, Listeria monocytogenes, campylobacters, Escherichia coli O157, Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia, and enteroviruses. Using laboratory data for pathogen destruction by mesophilic anaerobic digestion, and not extrapolating experimental data for pathogen decay in soil to the full 30-month harvest interval specified by the Matrix, predicts 50 Giardia infections per year, but less than one infection per year for the other six pathogens. Assuming linear decay in the soil, a 12-month harvest interval eliminates the risks from all seven pathogens; the highest predicted being one infection of C. parvum in the UK every 45 years. Computer simulations show that a protective effect from binding of pathogens to particulate matter could potentially exaggerate the observed rate of decay in experimental systems.

CONCLUSIONS

The results confirm, assuming pathogens behave according to our current understanding, that the risks to humans from consumption of vegetable crops are remote. Furthermore the harvest intervals stipulated by the Safe Sludge Matrix compensate for potential lapses in the operational efficiency of sludge treatment.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

The models demonstrate the huge potential impact of decay in the soil over the 12/30-month intervals specified by the Matrix, although lack of knowledge on the exact nature of soil decay processes is a source of uncertainty. The models enable the sensitivity of the predicted risks to changes in the operational efficiency of sewage sludge treatment to be assessed.

Risks to farm animals from pathogens in composted catering waste containing meat

Uncooked meat may contain animal pathogens, including bovine spongiform encephalopathy, foot-and-mouth disease virus, African swine fever virus and classical swine fever virus, and to prevent outbreaks of these diseases in farm animals, the disposal of meat from catering waste is controlled under the Animal By-Products Regulations. This paper estimates the risks to farm animals of grazing land on to which compost, produced by the composting of catering waste containing meat, has been applied. The factors controlling the level of risk are the separation of the meat at source, the efficiency of the composting process, and the decay and dilution of the pathogens in soil. The net pathogen destruction by the composting process is determined largely by the degree of bypass, and to accommodate the possibility of large joints or even whole carcases being discarded uncooked to catering waste, a time/temperature condition of 60 degrees C for two days is recommended. Where data are lacking, worst-case assumptions have been applied. According to the model, classical swine fever virus constitutes the highest risk, but the assessment shows that a two-barrier composting approach, together with a two-month grazing ban, reduces the risk to one infection in pigs every 190 years in England and Wales. This work defined the operational conditions for the composting of catering waste as set out in the Animal By-Products Regulations 2003 (SI 1482).

Using event trees to quantify pathogen levels on root crops from land application of treated sewage sludge

AIMS

To quantify the incremental exposure of root crops, at point of harvest, to enteric pathogens from sewage sludge applied to agricultural land according to current regulations and guidance (Safe Sludge Matrix).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A quantitative risk assessment based on the Source-Pathway-Receptor approach is developed for Cryptosporidium and salmonellas. Event trees are constructed to model the partitioning of pathogens present in raw sewage into sludge at the sewage treatment works and to model to the pathways by which root crops may be exposed to those pathogens after treatment and land application of the sludge. The main barriers are sewage sludge treatment, and decay and dilution of the pathogens in the soil. The exposures are expressed in terms of the arithmetic mean. This represents the total loading and accommodates fluctuations not only in the levels of pathogens present in sewage but also in the removal efficiencies by the various barriers. One source of uncertainty is the degree of by-pass of sludge treatment at operational scale.

CONCLUSIONS

The models predict that land application of sewage sludge treated by conventional processes (achieving 2-log removal) increases the exposures of root crops to salmonellas and Cryptosporidium oocysts by counts of 0.070 and 0.033 kg(-1), respectively. These predictions are based on decay periods in the soil of 5 and 12 weeks, respectively, and are therefore worst case in not allowing for the full extent of no harvesting periods. A Monte Carlo simulation predicts that 0.01% of 1-kg batches contained > 50 salmonellas and demonstrates that, for risk assessment, it is acceptable to use the arithmetic mean exposure directly in the dose-response curve.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

The predicted numbers of pathogens on root crops at point of harvest provide a basis for modelling the excess risks to humans consuming such crops. The approach underpins scientifically the Safe Sludge Matrix.

The effect of drinking water treatment on the spatial heterogeneity of micro-organisms: implications for assessment of treatment efficiency and health risk

The effect of drinking water treatment (ferric coagulation, floc blanket clarification, rapid sand filtration) on the spatial heterogeneity of five species of micro-organism was studied at pilot scale. It was found that the spatial heterogeneity of vegetative bacteria (namely total coliform and heterotrophic (22 degrees C; 3 d) bacteria) was little affected by treatment. Indeed, counts of total coliform bacteria within 500 l volumes of treated water were Poisson distributed (i.e. showed minimum variation). In contrast, treatment appeared to increase the spatial heterogeneity (or clustering) of both aerobic spores indigenous to the raw water and Bacillus subtilis var niger spores added to the raw water. Furthermore, B. subtilis var niger spores added to the raw water were detected in the treated water 25 h after termination of spiking to the raw water. The effect on C. parvum oocysts added to the raw water could not be determined because few oocysts broke through treatment into the treated water. Indeed oocyst removals of 5-6 logs were apparent. "Species-specific" differences in the removal ratios were also demonstrated. It is concluded that audits for treatment processes based on single 100 ml "spot" samples for spores will tend to over-estimate the net spore removal and hence underestimate the public health risk. Spatial heterogeneity of counts in treated water contributes to explaining why no "ideal" surrogate has been identified for treatment plant performance.

Towards a quantitative risk assessment for BSE in sewage sludge

AIMS

The aim is to determine the risk of transmission of BSE to humans and cattle through the application of sewage sludge to agricultural land.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A quantitative risk assessment based on the Source-Pathway-Receptor approach is developed. Central to the model is the estimation of the arithmetic mean concentration of BSE agent in sewage sludge. The main sources of uncertainty in the risk assessment are the degree to which sewage sludge treatment destroys BSE agent, whether there is a threshold dose for initiation of BSE infection in cattle, and most importantly, the amount of brain and spinal cord material which enters the sewer from the abattoir. Assuming 1% of brain and spinal cord is lost to the sewer from abattoirs, the model predicts a risk of BSE transmission of 7.1 x 10(-5) cow(-1) year(-1) for cattle grazing on land to which sewage sludge has been applied.

CONCLUSION

The risks to humans through consumption of vegetable crops are acceptably low. Although the risks to cattle are higher, because of higher exposure to soil and greater susceptibility, the model demonstrates that sewage sludge alone cannot sustain the BSE epidemic in the UK cattle herd. Furthermore, the model suggests that recycling of BSE agent through sewage sludge will not sustain endemic levels of BSE in the UK cattle herd.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

The conclusions are consistent with the findings from epidemiological studies which so far have not detected horizontal transmission of BSE (which would include transmission from contaminated pastures). The model demonstrates the importance of containment of brain and spinal cord within the abattoir.

Quantitative BSE risk assessment: relating exposures to risk

There is currently no epidemiological evidence to identify the route(s) of transmission of BSE from cattle to humans, although consumption of infected bovine offals, prior to their use being banned in human food in late 1989, is the most likely source. Quantitative risk assessment methods have been applied to estimate the risks through various potential routes of exposure to BSE, including those from environmental disposal of BSE-infected residues. The risks predicted for the consumption of beef-on-the-bone and for the drinking of water from an aquifer potentially contaminated with effluent from a cattle rendering plant are similar at 10(-9) and 10(-8) person-1 year-1, respectively. It is suggested here that while the risks predicted for beef-on-the-bone are realistic, the risks through drinking water could be over-estimated by a factor of about 10(20). First, the risk assessment methodology does not take into account the very different natures of the exposure. Thus, through beef-on-the-bone an unfortunate consumer may ingest a high dose (approaching an ID50) in a single exposure, while because of dilution in water, drinking water consumers would never be exposed to high doses, even cumulatively over the period of a human lifetime. Second, the risk assessment for drinking water does not allow for the possibility of a threshold effect such that a minimum number of BSE prions is needed to initiate infection. It is concluded that direct comparisons of predicted risks from BSE should be avoided unless the natures of the exposure are similar. Information on whether there is a threshold effect is more critical for quantitative BSE risk assessment through environmental routes of exposure than the exact magnitude of the cow-to-man species barrier.