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Horigan V, Gale P, Adkin A, Konold T, Cassar C, Spiropoulos J, Kelly L. Assessing the aggregated probability of entry of a novel prion disease agent into the United Kingdom. Microb Risk Anal 2020; 16:100134. [PMID: 32837979 PMCID: PMC7428426 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2020.100134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2020] [Revised: 07/06/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
In 2018 prion disease was detected in camels at an abattoir in Algeria for the first time. The emergence of prion disease in this species made it prudent to assess the probability of entry of the pathogen into the United Kingdom (UK) from this region. Potentially contaminated products were identified as evidenced by other prion diseases. The aggregated probability of entry of the pathogen was estimated as very high and high for legal milk and cheese imports respectively and very high, high and high for illegal meat, milk and cheese products respectively. This aggregated probability represents a qualitative assessment of the probability of one or more entry events per year into the UK; it gives no indication of the number of entry events per year. The uncertainty associated with these estimates was high due to the unknown variation in prevalence of infection in camels and an uncertain number and type of illegal products entering the UK. Potential public health implications of this pathogen are unknown although there is currently no evidence of zoonotic transmission of prion diseases other than bovine spongiform encephalopathy to humans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Verity Horigan
- Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UK
| | - Paul Gale
- Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UK
| | - Amie Adkin
- Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UK
| | - Timm Konold
- Department of Pathology, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UK
| | - Claire Cassar
- Department of Pathology, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UK
| | - John Spiropoulos
- Department of Pathology, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UK
| | - Louise Kelly
- Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Surrey, KT15 3NB, UK
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, 26 Richmond St, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
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