Cost-based optimization of the stopping threshold for local disease surveillance during progressive eradication of tuberculosis from New Zealand wildlife

A scoping review on bovine tuberculosis highlights the need for novel data streams and analytical approaches to curb zoonotic diseases

Zoonotic diseases represent a significant societal challenge in terms of their health and economic impacts. One Health approaches to managing zoonotic diseases are becoming more prevalent, but require novel thinking, tools and cross-disciplinary collaboration. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one example of a costly One Health challenge with a complex epidemiology involving humans, domestic animals, wildlife and environmental factors, which require sophisticated collaborative approaches. We undertook a scoping review of multi-host bTB epidemiology to identify trends in species publication focus, methodologies, and One Health approaches. We aimed to identify knowledge gaps where novel research could provide insights to inform control policy, for bTB and other zoonoses. The review included 532 articles. We found different levels of research attention across episystems, with a significant proportion of the literature focusing on the badger-cattle-TB episystem, with far less attention given to tropical multi-host episystems. We found a limited number of studies focusing on management solutions and their efficacy, with very few studies looking at modelling exit strategies. Only a small number of studies looked at the effect of human disturbances on the spread of bTB involving wildlife hosts. Most of the studies we reviewed focused on the effect of badger vaccination and culling on bTB dynamics with few looking at how roads, human perturbations and habitat change may affect wildlife movement and disease spread. Finally, we observed a lack of studies considering the effect of weather variables on bTB spread, which is particularly relevant when studying zoonoses under climate change scenarios. Significant technological and methodological advances have been applied to bTB episystems, providing explicit insights into its spread and maintenance across populations. We identified a prominent bias towards certain species and locations. Generating more high-quality empirical data on wildlife host distribution and abundance, high-resolution individual behaviours and greater use of mathematical models and simulations are key areas for future research. Integrating data sources across disciplines, and a "virtuous cycle" of well-designed empirical data collection linked with mathematical and simulation modelling could provide additional gains for policy-makers and managers, enabling optimised bTB management with broader insights for other zoonoses.

Effect of epidemic diseases on wild animal conservation

Under the background of global species extinction, the impact of epidemic diseases on wild animal protection is increasingly prominent. Here, we review and synthesize the literature on this topic, and discuss the relationship between diseases and biodiversity. Diseases usually reduce species diversity by decreasing or extinction of species populations, but also accelerate species evolution and promote species diversity. At the same time, species diversity can regulate disease outbreaks through dilution or amplification effects. The synergistic effect of human activities and global change is emphasized, which further aggravates the complex relationship between biodiversity and diseases. Finally, we emphasize the importance of active surveillance of wild animal diseases, which can protect wild animals from potential diseases, maintain population size and genetic variation, and reduce the damage of diseases to the balance of the whole ecosystem and human health. Therefore, we suggest that a background survey of wild animal populations and their pathogens should be carried out to assess the impact of potential outbreaks on the population or species level. The mechanism of dilution and amplification effect between species diversity and diseases of wild animals should be further studied to provide a theoretical basis and technical support for human intervention measures to change biodiversity. Most importantly, we should closely combine the protection of wild animals with the establishment of an active surveillance, prevention, and control system for wild animal epidemics, in an effort to achieve a win-win situation between wild animal protection and disease control.

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

Chew-cards can accurately index invasive rat densities in Mariana Island forests

Rats (Rattus spp.) are likely established on 80–90% of the world’s islands and represent one of the most damaging and expensive biological invaders. Effective rat control tools exist but require accurate population density estimates or indices to inform treatment timing and effort and to assess treatment efficacy. Capture-mark-recapture data are frequently used to produce robust density estimates, but collecting these data can be expensive, time-consuming, and labor-intensive. We tested a potentially cheaper and easier alternative, chew-cards, as a count-based (quantitative) index of invasive rat densities in tropical forests in the Mariana Islands, an archipelago in the western North Pacific Ocean. We trialed chew-cards in nine forest grids on two Mariana Islands by comparing the proportion of cards chewed to capture-mark-recapture density estimates and manipulated rat densities to test whether the relationship was retained. Chew-card counts were positively correlated with rat capture-mark-recapture density estimates across a range of rat densities found in the region. Additionally, the correlation between the two sampling methods increased with the number of days chew-cards were deployed. Specifically, when chew-cards were deployed for five nights, a 10% increase in the proportion of cards chewed equated to an estimated increase in rat density of approximately 2.4 individuals per ha (R2 = 0.74). Chew-cards can provide a valid index of rat densities in Mariana Island forests and are a cheaper alternative to capture-mark-recapture sampling when relative differences in density are of primary interest. New cost-effective monitoring tools can enhance our understanding and management of invaded islands while stretching limited resources further than some conventional approaches, thus improving invasive species management on islands.

Risk-based surveillance of chronic wasting disease in semi-domestic reindeer

Reindeer pastoralism is a widespread practise across Fennoscandia and Russia. An outbreak of chronic wasting disease (CWD) among wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) poses a severe threat to the semi-domestic reindeer herding culture. Establishing surveillance is therefore key, but current models for surveillance of CWD are designed for wild cervids and rely on samples obtained from recreational hunters. Targeting animal groups with a higher infection probability is often used for more efficient disease surveillance. CWD has a long incubation period of 2-3 years, and the animals show clinical signs in the later stages of the infection i.e. 1-4 months prior to death. The semi-domestic reindeer are free-ranging most of the year, but during slaughtering in late fall, herders stress the animals in penned areas. This allows removal of animals with deviant behaviour or physical appearance, and such removals are likely to include animals in the clinical stages of CWD if the population is infected. In Norway, the semi-domestic reindeer in Filefjell is adjacent to a previously CWD infected wild population. We developed a risk-based surveillance method for this semi-domestic setting to establish the probability of freedom from infection over time, or enable early disease detection and mitigation. The surveillance scheme with a scenario tree using three risk categories (sample category, demographic group, and deviations in behaviour or physical appearance) was more effective and less invasive as compared to the surveillance method developed for wild reindeer. We also simulated how variation in susceptibility, incubation period and time for onset of clinical signs (linked to variation in the prion protein gene, PRNP) would potentially affect surveillance. Surveillance for CWD was mandatory within EU-member states with reindeer (2018-2020). The diversity of management systems and epidemiological settings will require the development of a set of surveillance systems suitable for each different context. Our surveillance model is designed for a population with a high risk of CWD introduction requiring massive sampling, while at the same time aiming to limit adverse effects to the populations in areas of surveillance.

Refining kill-trap networks for the control of small mammalian predators in invaded ecosystems

Population control of invasive mammal pests is an ongoing process in many conservation projects. In New Zealand, introduced wild domestic cats and mustelids have a severe impact on biodiversity, and methods to reduce and maintain predator populations to low levels have been developed involving poisoning and trapping. Such conservation efforts often run on limited funds, so ways to minimize costs while not compromising their effectiveness are constantly being sought. Here we report on a case example in a 150 km² area in the North Island, New Zealand, where high predator numbers were reduced by 70-80% in an initial ‘knockdown’ trapping program, using the full set of traps available in the fixed network and frequent checks, and then maintained at low density using maintenance trapping with less frequent checking. We developed and applied a simulation model of predator captures, based on trapping data, to investigate the effect on control efficacy of varying numbers of trap sites and numbers of traps per site. Included in the simulations were captures of other, non-target, introduced mammals. Simulations indicated that there are potentially significant savings to be made, at least in the maintenance phase of a long-term predator control programme, by first reducing the number of traps in large-scale networks without dramatically reducing efficacy, and then, possibly, re-locating traps according to spatial heterogeneity in observed captures of the target species.

Bayesian Assessment of the Accuracy of a PCR-Based Rapid Diagnostic Test for Bovine Tuberculosis in Swine

Infection with the Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) causes a disease referred to as bovine tuberculosis (bTB), which affects a wide range of mammal hosts. Many countries have implemented control and eradication plans that have resulted in variable levels of efficacy and success. Although bTB is a notifiable disease in Argentina, and a control plan that targets cattle herds has been in place for decades, M. bovis is still prevalent in cattle, swine, and certain wild species. The aim of the paper here was to assess the sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of PCR from tissue, which is a test for rapid M. bovis detection in swine. Bacteriological culture was also performed for comparison purposes. A Bayesian approach was applied to estimate the accuracy of the diagnostic tests, PCR and bacteriological culture, in 266 swine samples with bTB-like lesions recovered during routine official inspections at slaughterhouses. A one-population model, assuming conditional dependence between test results, and incorporating prior information on the performance of the tests obtained from the literature, was used to estimate the tests Se and Sp. The accuracy of the combined (in parallel) application of both tests was also estimated. The Se of the PCR (82.9%) was higher than the Se of the bacteriological culture (79.9%), whereas the Sp of both tests was similar (88.5 and 89.0%, respectively). Furthermore, when both techniques were assessed in parallel, the Se of the diagnostic system increased substantially (Se = 96.6%) with a moderate Sp loss (Sp = 78.8%; PPV = 92.8%; NPV = 89%). Results suggest that the PCR, or the combined application of bacteriological culture and PCR, may serve as an accurate diagnostic tool to confirm bTB in swine samples. Results here will help the design and implementation of effective surveillance strategies for the disease in swine of Argentina and other settings in which the disease is prevalent.

A concise guide to developing and using quantitative models in conservation management

Quantitative models are powerful tools for informing conservation management and decision-making. As applied modeling is increasingly used to address conservation problems, guidelines are required to clarify the scope of modeling applications and to facilitate the impact and acceptance of models by practitioners. We identify three key roles for quantitative models in conservation management: (a) to assess the extent of a conservation problem; (b) to provide insights into the dynamics of complex social and ecological systems; and, (c) to evaluate the efficacy of proposed conservation interventions. We describe 10 recommendations to facilitate the acceptance of quantitative models in conservation management, providing a basis for good practice to guide their development and evaluation in conservation applications. We structure these recommendations within four established phases of model construction, enabling their integration within existing workflows: (a) design (two recommendations); (b) specification (two); (c) evaluation (one); and (d) inference (five). Quantitative modeling can support effective conservation management provided that both managers and modelers understand and agree on the place for models in conservation. Our concise review and recommendations will assist conservation managers and modelers to collaborate in the development of quantitative models that are fit-for-purpose, and to trust and use these models appropriately while understanding key drivers of uncertainty.

Evaluating the effects of landscape structure on the recovery of an invasive vertebrate after population control

CONTEXT

Effective landscape control of invasive species is context-dependent due to the interplay between the landscape structure, local population dynamics, and metapopulation processes. We use a modelling approach incorporating these three elements to explore the drivers of recovery of populations of invasive species after control.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to improve our understanding of the factors influencing the landscape-level control of invasive species.

METHODS

We focus on the case study of invasive brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) control in New Zealand. We assess how 13 covariates describing the landscape, patch, and population features influence the time of population recovery to a management density threshold of two possums/ha. We demonstrate the effects of those covariates on population recovery under three scenarios of population growth: logistic growth, strong Allee effects, and weak Allee effects.

RESULTS

Recovery times were rapid regardless of the simulated population dynamics (average recovery time < 2 years), although populations experiencing Allee effects took longer to recover than those growing logistically. Our results indicate that habitat availability and patch area play a key role in reducing times to recovery after control, and this relationship is consistent across the three simulated scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The control of invasive possum populations in patchy landscapes would benefit from a patch-level management approach (considering each patch as an independent management unit), whereas simple landscapes would be better controlled by taking a landscape-level view (the landscape as the management unit). Future research should test the predictions of our models with empirical data to refine control operations.

Roll-Back Eradication of Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) From Wildlife in New Zealand: Concepts, Evolving Approaches, and Progress

The New Zealand government and agricultural industries recently jointly adopted the goal of nationally eradicating bovine tuberculosis (TB) from livestock and wildlife reservoirs by 2055. Only Australia has eradicated TB from a wildlife maintenance host. Elsewhere the disease is often self-sustaining in a variety of wildlife hosts, usually making eradication an intractable problem. The New Zealand strategy for eradicating TB from wildlife is based on quantitative assessment using a Bayesian “Proof of Freedom” framework. This is used to assess the probability that TB has been locally eradicated from a given area. Here we describe the framework (the concepts, methods and tools used to assess TB freedom and how they are being applied and updated). We then summarize recent decision theory research aimed at optimizing the balance between the risk of falsely declaring areas free and the risk of overspending on disease management when the disease is already locally extinct. We explore potential new approaches for further optimizing the allocation of management resources, especially for places where existing methods are impractical or expensive, including using livestock as sentinels. We also describe how the progressive roll-back of locally eradicated areas scales up operationally and quantitatively to achieve and confirm eradication success over the entire country. Lastly, we review the progress made since the framework was first formally adopted in 2011. We conclude that eradication of TB from New Zealand is feasible, and that we are well on the way to achieving this outcome.