Evaluating the utility of national-scale data to estimate the local risk of foot-and-mouth disease in endemic regions

Epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Thailand from 2011 to 2018

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important animal diseases hindering livestock production in Thailand. In this study, a temporal and spatial analysis at the subdistrict level was performed on FMD outbreak reports in Thailand from 2011 to 2018. Risk factors associated with FMD outbreaks were furthermore investigated using generalized estimating equations. The results showed that the incidence of FMD outbreaks was the highest in 2016 and was affected by season, with a peak in FMD outbreaks occurring in the rainy-winter season, during October to December. FMD outbreaks were mostly distributed in small clusters within a few subdistricts. Some high-risk areas with repeated outbreaks were detected in the central regions. Risk factors, including the increase of subdistrict's size of the dairy population, beef population or pig population, the low percentage of forest area, subdistricts in the provinces adjacent to Malaysia, the presence of a livestock market and the occurrence of an FMD outbreak in a neighbouring subdistrict in the previous month significantly increased the odds of having an FMD outbreak. The increase in proximity to the nearest subdistrict with an FMD outbreak in the previous month decreased the odds of having FMD outbreaks. This study helped to identify high-risk areas and periods of FMD outbreaks in Thailand. Together with the identified risk factors, its results can be used to optimize the FMD control programme in Thailand and in other countries having a similar livestock industry and FMD situation.

Detection of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in the Absence of Clinical Disease in Cattle and Buffalo in South East Asia

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is widespread throughout much of the world, including parts of South East Asia. Surveillance is often limited in endemic areas, relying predominantly on passive outbreak reporting. As part of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE)'s South East Asia and China Foot-and-Mouth Disease Project (SEACFMD), field sampling was performed to help understand evidence of widespread virus exposure observed in previous studies. Serum and dry mucosal swabs were collected to evaluate the presence of FMDV RNA on the nasal, oral, and dorsal nasopharyngeal mucosal surfaces of 262 healthy cattle (n = 84 in Laos; n = 125 in Myanmar) and buffalo (n = 48 in Laos; n = 5 in Myanmar) immediately following slaughter in three slaughterhouses. Swabs and serum were tested by the OIE/FAO World Reference Laboratory for foot-and-mouth disease (WRLFMD) using pan-serotypic real-time reverse transcription-PCR (rRT-PCR) and serum was evaluated using the FMD PrioCHECK non-structural protein (NSP) ELISA. In total, 7.3% of animals had detectable FMDV RNA in one or more of the three sites including 5.3% of nasopharyngeal swabs, 2.3% of oral swabs, and 1.5% of nasal swabs. No FMDV RNA was detected in serum. Overall, 37.8% of animals were positive for NSP antibodies, indicating likely past natural exposure to FMDV. Results were comparable for Laos and Myanmar, and for both cattle and buffalo, and were not significantly different between age groups. Detectable FMDV RNA present on the oral and nasal mucosa of clinically-healthy large ruminants in Laos and Myanmar demonstrates the importance of sampling asymptomatic animals as part of surveillance, and may indicate that subclinical infection plays a role in the epidemiology of FMD in these countries.

Estimating foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence in central Myanmar: Comparison of village headman and farmer disease reports with serological findings

The impacts of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on food security in developing countries are difficult to quantify due to the scarcity of accurate data on the prevalence and incidence of affected villages. This is partly due to resource constraints as well as the logistical challenges of conducting regular diagnostic testing in remote locations. In this study, we used descriptive analysis and latent class analysis (LCA) models to analyse data collected during a field survey of 160 villages in central Myanmar in the Mandalay and Sagaing Regions over the 2012-2016 time period. We evaluated the performance of verbal reports made by village householders and headmen against serological data to retrospectively determine the FMD-infection status of our study area and to identify factors contributing to under-reporting. Blood samples were collected from approximately 30 cattle per village in both the 6- to 18-month age range and over 18-month age range to distinguish between recent and historic exposure. Village householders were asked to identify pictures of FMD-affected cattle amongst pictures of cattle affected with other common endemic diseases to assess the accuracy of their verbal reporting. The serological results confirmed that FMD is endemic in central Myanmar with village-level seroprevalence estimated at 56% for animals 6-18 months of age and 80% when all age groups were considered together. Most village householders were familiar with the clinical signs of FMD-affected cattle (72%). Based on the results from the LCA models, the village headman had a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 75% for identifying FMD outbreaks in their village, whereas individual householders had a higher sensitivity and lower specificity of 80% and 56%, respectively. The level of disagreement between the different sources was correlated with the total number of cattle in the village and may potentially be worse in villages where endemic FMD may have led to a high level of natural immunity in cattle and subsequent masking of clinical signs. However, other regional effects such as the intensity of FMD extension efforts cannot be ruled out. Overall, the results suggest that verbal reports of FMD outbreaks from village headmen may be a useful tool to integrate into active FMD surveillance programmes in developing countries.