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Tesfaye S, Regassa F, Beyene G, Leta S, Paeshuyse J. Spatiotemporal analysis and forecasting of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia based on retrospective outbreak reports. Front Vet Sci 2024; 11:1277007. [PMID: 38532795 PMCID: PMC10964905 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1277007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/27/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Lumpy skin disease is a viral disease that affects cattle belonging to genus Capripoxvirus (Poxviridae) and lead to significant economic losses. Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate the distribution of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks and predict future patterns based on retrospective outbreak reports in Ethiopia. Methods Data were collected through direct communication with regional laboratories and a hierarchical reporting system from the Peasant Associations to Ministry of Agriculture. Time-series data for the LSD outbreaks were analyzed using classical additive time-series decomposition and STL decomposition. Four models (ARIMA, SARIMA, ETS, STLF) were also used to forecast the number of LSD outbreaks that occurred each month for the years (2021-2025) after the models' accuracy test was performed. Additionally, the space-time permutation model (STP) were also used to study retrospective space-time cluster analysis of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia. Results This study examined the geographical and temporal distribution of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia from 2008 to 2020, reporting a total of 3,256 LSD outbreaks, 14,754 LSD-positive cases, 7,758 deaths, and 289 slaughters. It also covered approximately 68% of Ethiopia's districts, with Oromia reporting the highest LSD outbreaks. In the LSD's temporal distribution, the highest peak was reported following the rainy season in September to December and its lowest peak in the dry months of April and May. Out of the four models tested for forecasting, the SARIMA (3, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0) [12] model performed well for the validation data, while the STLF+Random Walk had a robust prediction for the training data. Thus, the SARIMA and STLF+Random Walk models produced a more accurate forecast of LSD outbreaks between 2020 and 2025. From retrospective Space-Time Cluster Analysis of LSD, eight possible clusters were also identified, with five of them located in central part of Ethiopia. Conclusion The study's time series and ST-cluster analysis of LSD outbreak data provide valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of the disease in Ethiopia. These insights can aid in the development of effective strategies to control and prevent the spread of the disease and holds great potential for improving efforts to combat LSD in the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shimels Tesfaye
- Laboratory of Host–Pathogen Interaction, Department of Biosystems, Division of Animal and Human Health Engineering, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Fikru Regassa
- College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Gashaw Beyene
- Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Epidemiology Directorate, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Samson Leta
- Laboratory of Host–Pathogen Interaction, Department of Biosystems, Division of Animal and Human Health Engineering, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Jan Paeshuyse
- Laboratory of Host–Pathogen Interaction, Department of Biosystems, Division of Animal and Human Health Engineering, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
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Tweyongyere R, Nkamwesiga J, Etiang P, Mugezi I, Wamala H, Wasswa AT, Kamusiime M, Ainebyoona S, Abizera H, Mwiine FN, Muhanguzi D. Seroprevalence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in cattle from Karamoja region, North-eastern Uganda. BMC Vet Res 2024; 20:97. [PMID: 38461244 PMCID: PMC10924401 DOI: 10.1186/s12917-024-03938-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2023] [Accepted: 02/14/2024] [Indexed: 03/11/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia [CBPP] is a transboundary animal disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides [Mmm]. CBPP causes severe economic losses to livestock producers in sub-Saharan Africa mainly due to high mortality, morbidity, reduction in productivity as well as livestock trade restrictions. This study aimed at determining seroprevalence of Mmm in cattle from Karamoja region, north-eastern Uganda; data that are required to design and implement risk based CBPP control program. METHODS We randomly collected blood samples from 2,300 cattle spread across Karamoja region. Serum was extracted and screened for antibodies against Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides [Mmm] using the competitive enzyme linked immunosorbent assay [cELISA]. RESULTS A quarter [25.4%; 95% CI: 23.7-27.3] of the screened cattle [n = 2,300] were sero-positive for Mmm. Amudat and Kaabong districts recorded the lowest [12.3%] and highest [30.7%] Mmm seroprevalence respectively. Increasing age, overnight stay in cattle kraals and location [certain districts, villages, herds and sub counties] of the cattle herds, the factors that promote animal commingling, were the most significant risk factors of seroconversion with Mmm. CONCLUSION Results from this study indicated a higher seroprevalence of Mmm in Karamoja region cattle herds. This could be due to the increased frequency of CBPP outbreaks in recent years. To be effective, CBPP vaccination programs should target high risk herds along the international borders and other hotspot areas [e.g., parishes or sub counties] where cattle commingling is high.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert Tweyongyere
- College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, P.O.Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Joseph Nkamwesiga
- College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, P.O.Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Patrick Etiang
- Faculty of Agriculture and Animal Sciences, Busitema University, P.O.Box 236, Tororo, Uganda
| | - Israel Mugezi
- Department of Animal Health, Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries, P.O.Box 513, Entebbe, Uganda
- Department of Production, Trade and Tourism Planning, National Planning Authority, P.O.Box 21434, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Henry Wamala
- Mercy Corps Uganda, Clock Tower, P.O.Box 32021, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Auther Tamale Wasswa
- College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, P.O.Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda
- Mercy Corps Uganda, Clock Tower, P.O.Box 32021, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Solomon Ainebyoona
- College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, P.O.Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Harriet Abizera
- College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, P.O.Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Frank Norbert Mwiine
- College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, P.O.Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Dennis Muhanguzi
- College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, P.O.Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda.
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Nkamwesiga J, Lumu P, Nalumenya DP, Korennoy F, Roesel K, Wieland B, Perez A, Kiara H, Muhanguzi D. Seroprevalence and risk factors of Peste des petits ruminants in different production systems in Uganda. Prev Vet Med 2023; 221:106051. [PMID: 37918209 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Revised: 09/20/2023] [Accepted: 10/15/2023] [Indexed: 11/04/2023]
Abstract
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious and fatal disease of mostly domestic goats and sheep. First reported in Uganda in 2007, the extent of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) exposure, geographical distribution and risk factors of its transmission and spread are not clearly understood. In this study, we used cluster random sampling methodology to select study villages from three districts representing three different production systems along Uganda's "cattle corridor". Between October and December 2022, 2520 goat and sheep serum samples were collected from 252 households with no history of PPR vaccination in the past one year. The household heads were interviewed to assess possible risk factors of PPRV transmission using a structured questionnaire. The serum samples were screened with a commercial competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) for PPRV antibodies. The determined overall true seroprevalence of PPRV was 27.3% [95% CI: 25.4-29.1]. The seroprevalence of PPRV antibodies in different production systems was 44.1% [95% CI: 40.6-47.7], 31.7% [95% CI: 28.4-35.0] and 6.1% [95% CI: 4.4-7.9] for pastoral, agropastoral and mixed crop-livestock production systems respectively. A mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression model revealed strong statistical evidence of association between female animals and PPRV antibody seropositivity compared to males [OR= 2.45, 95% CI: 1.7-3.5, p < 0.001]. The likelihood of being PPRV antibody seropositive significantly increased with increasing small ruminant age. Animals older than 3 years were more than three times as likely to be PPRV seropositive compared to animals aged under 1 year [OR= 3.41, 95% CI: 2.39-4.85, p < 0.001]. There was no statistical evidence of association between small ruminant species and PPRV antibody seropositivity (p = 0.423). Village flocks that interacted with neighboring flocks daily during grazing (IRR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.19-2.13) and watering around swamps (IRR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.19-2.13) were highly correlated with increased number of PPRV seropositive animals as compared to flocks that were more restricted in grazing and watered around other water sources other than swamps. Flocks from pastoral and agropastoral production systems were more than 10 times more likely to have seropositive animals than mixed crop-livestock flocks. Targeting PPR control interventions (vaccination and livestock movement control) to pastoral and agro-pastoral small ruminant production systems that are very prone to PPR incursions is recommended to prevent PPRV spread to low-risk smallholder mixed crop-livestock production systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Nkamwesiga
- Dahlem Research School of Biomedical Sciences, Department of Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
| | - Paul Lumu
- Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - David Paul Nalumenya
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources, and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Fedor Korennoy
- Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), Vladimir, Russia
| | | | - Barbara Wieland
- Institute of Virology and Immunology (IVI), Switzerland; Department of Infectious Diseases and Pathobiology (DIP), University of Bern, Switzerland
| | - Andres Perez
- College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States
| | - Henry Kiara
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Dennis Muhanguzi
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources, and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
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Nizeyimana G, Vudriko P, Erume J, Mubiru F, Eneku W, Biryomumaisho S, Mwebe R, Arinaitwe E, Ademun R, Atim S, Ayebazibwe C, Muhanguzi D, Tweyongyere R. Spatio-temporal analysis of sheep and goat pox outbreaks in Uganda during 2011-2022. BMC Vet Res 2023; 19:224. [PMID: 37891597 PMCID: PMC10612334 DOI: 10.1186/s12917-023-03788-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sheep and goat pox (SGP) caused by sheep poxvirus (SPV) and goat poxvirus (GPV) respectively; are transboundary and World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH)-notifiable viral diseases. There is barely any coherent information about the distribution and prevalence of SGP for Uganda. We therefore conducted this study to describe the temporal and spatial distribution of SGP suspected outbreaks in Uganda for the period 2011-2020 as well as serologically confirm presence of SGP antibodies in suspected SGP outbreaks reported in 2021-2022. RESULTS Thirty-seven [37] SGP outbreaks were reported across the country during the study period. North-eastern region [that comprises of Karamoja region] had the highest number of outbreaks [n = 17, 45%]; followed by Central [n = 9, 2.4%], Northern [n = 8, 2.2%] and Western region [n = 3, 0.08%]. Reports from district veterinary personnel indicate that the prevalence of; and mortality rate and case fatality rate associated with SGP were 0.06%, 0.02% and 32% respectively. There was a steady increase in the number of reported SGP outbreaks [x̄ = 4] over the study period. Seropositivity of SGPV antibodies in outbreak sheep and goats that were investigated during the study period [2021-2022] was [n = 41, 27%, 95 CI;] CONCLUSION: Our analyses of SGPV passive and active reports indicate that SGP is present in Uganda with a decade long average of four outbreaks per annum. During this period, about a third of all SGPV-clinically infected animals died. SPG is therefore a major constraint to small ruminant health and productivity in Uganda. Introduction of animals from infected herds and breach in farm biosecurity were the most important predictors of SGP outbreaks. In addition to the already existing SGP commercial vaccines, small ruminant screening for SGPV before introducing them to naïve herds and ensuring on farm biosecurity should be part of the SGP control tool pack for Ugandan small ruminant farmers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerald Nizeyimana
- Department of Pharmacy Clinical and Comparative Medicine, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Resources, College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Patrick Vudriko
- Department of Pharmacy Clinical and Comparative Medicine, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Resources, College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Joseph Erume
- Department of Bimolecular and Bio Lab Sciences, School of Biosecurity, Biotechnology and Laboratory Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Frank Mubiru
- Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Wilfred Eneku
- Department of Pharmacy Clinical and Comparative Medicine, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Resources, College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Savino Biryomumaisho
- Department of Pharmacy Clinical and Comparative Medicine, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Resources, College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Robert Mwebe
- National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Centre, Directorate of Animal Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Eugene Arinaitwe
- National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Centre, Directorate of Animal Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Rose Ademun
- National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Centre, Directorate of Animal Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Stella Atim
- National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Centre, Directorate of Animal Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Chrisostom Ayebazibwe
- Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Dennis Muhanguzi
- Department of Bimolecular and Bio Lab Sciences, School of Biosecurity, Biotechnology and Laboratory Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Robert Tweyongyere
- Department of Pharmacy Clinical and Comparative Medicine, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Resources, College of Veterinary Medicine Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
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Yessenbayev K, Mukhanbetkaliyev Y, Yessembekova G, Kadyrov A, Sultanov A, Bainiyazov A, Bakishev T, Nkamwesiga J, Korennoy F, Abdrakhmanov S. Simulating the Spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Kazakhstan Using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model. Transbound Emerg Dis 2023. [DOI: 10.1155/2023/7052175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/30/2023]
Abstract
In this study, we simulated the potential spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) between small ruminant (SR) farms in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) in case of the disease’s introduction into the country. The simulation was based on actual data on the location and population of SR farms in the RK using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). The NAADSM employs the stochastic simulations of the between-farm disease spread predicated on the SIR compartmental epidemic model. The most important epidemiological indicators of PPR, demography of SR farms, and livestock management characteristics in the RK were used for model parameterization. This article considers several scenarios for the initial introduction of PPR into the territory of Kazakhstan, based on previously identified high-risk regions and varying sizes of initially infected farms. It is demonstrated that the duration and size of the outbreak do not depend on the size of initially infected farms but rather depend on the livestock concentration and number of farms in the affected area. This implies that the outbreak may affect the largest number of farms in the case of introduction of the disease into farms in southern Kazakhstan. However, even in the most unfavorable scenario, the total number of affected farms does not exceed 2.4% of all SR farms in the RK. The size of the affected area is, in most cases, no larger than an averaged 2-level administrative division’s size, which suggests the scale of a local epidemic. The chosen model provides ample opportunity to study the impact of different control and prevention measures on the spread of PPR as well as to assess the potential economic damage.
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Urbanization and Habitat Characteristics Associated with the Occurrence of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Africa. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14158978] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
As a highly contagious viral disease, peste des petits ruminants (PPR) can cause severe socio-economic impacts in developing countries due to its threat to sheep and goat production. Previous studies have identified several risk factors for PPR at the individual or herd level. However, only a few studies explored the impacts of landscape factors on PPR risk, particularly at a regional scale. Moreover, risk factor analyses in Africa usually focused on sub-Saharan Africa while neglecting northern Africa. Based on regional occurrence data during 2006–2018, we here explored and compared the risk factors, with a focus on factors related to ruminant habitats, for the occurrence of PPR in sub-Saharan and northern Africa. Our results demonstrated different risk factors in the two regions. Specifically, habitat fragmentation was negatively correlated with PPR occurrence in sub-Saharan Africa, while positively correlated with PPR occurrence in northern Africa. Moreover, urbanization showed a positive association with PPR occurrence in sub-Saharan Africa. Our study is among the first, to our knowledge, to compare the risk factors for PPR in sub-Saharan and northern Africa and contributes to a better understanding of the effects of habitat characteristics on PPR occurrence at a regional scale.
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