Spatial patterns and temporal tendency of mortality related to Chagas disease in an endemic area of northeastern Brazil

Spatio-temporal distribution of hospitalizations for chronic Chagas disease and risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality and surgical intervention in Chile

Chagas disease (CD) is a neglected parasitic zoonotic disease that affects over 6 million people worldwide. We conducted a retrospective study to analyze the spatiotemporal trends and risk factors for hospitalization rates of CD with cardiac and digestive diagnoses in Chile. We used the Mann-Kendall analysis for temporal trends, Global Moran's Index, and Local Indicators of Spatial Association to identify spatial autocorrelation, and regression models to determine the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality and surgical intervention. Between 2010 and 2020, a total of 654 hospitalizations were reported, corresponding to 527 individuals. The hospitalization rate steadily decreased over the years (t = -0.636; p = 0.009). The Global Moran's I for the study period showed a positive spatial autocorrelation for hospitalization municipality and for residence municipality of CD patients (I = 0.25, p<0.001 and I = 0.45, p<0.001 respectively), indicating a clustering of hospitalizations in northern municipalities. The most frequent diagnosis was a chronic CD with digestive system involvement (55.8%) followed by a chronic CD with heart involvement (44.2%). The highest percentage of hospital discharges was observed among males (56.9%) and in the 60-79 age group (52.7%). In-hospital mortality risk was higher with increasing age (OR = 1.04), and in patients with cardiac involvement (OR = 2.3), whereas factors associated with the risk of undergoing a surgical intervention were sex (OR = 1.6) and diagnosis of CD with digestive involvement (OR = 4.4). The findings of this study indicate that CD is still a significant public health burden in Chile. Efforts should focus on improving access to timely diagnoses and treatment, reducing disease progression and hospitalization burden, and supporting clinicians in preventing complications and deaths.

Reduced HIV/AIDS diagnosis rates and increased AIDS mortality due to late diagnosis in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected global health, leading to the suspension of numerous routine healthcare services and posing challenges in efforts to control other diseases, such as HIV/AIDS. This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV/AIDS diagnoses and mortality rates in Brazil during 2020 and 2021. The percentage change was calculated to determine whether there was an increase or decrease in HIV/AIDS diagnoses and mortality, considering the average numbers from the last 5 years. Additionally, a Joinpoint regression model and an interrupted time series analysis were applied to assess time trends before and after the onset of the pandemic. Lastly, choropleth maps were prepared. We observed a reduction of 22.4% (2020) and 9.8% (2021) in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS in Brazil. Conversely, there was a significant increase in the percentage change of late diagnosis of AIDS deaths in 2020 (6.9%) and 2021 (13.9%), with some states showing an increase of over 87%. Decreasing time trends in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS were identified before the pandemic in Brazil, especially in the Southeast and South regions, and then time trends stabilized after including the pandemic years. Along with the dissemination of COVID-19, there was a reduction in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS and an increase in late diagnosis AIDS deaths, signaling a serious impact of the pandemic on HIV/AIDS control strategies in Brazil. Therefore, we highlight the need for continuous efforts to control both diseases, that is, maintaining regular health services even in crisis situations.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Diagnosis of Tuberculosis in Brazil: Is the WHO End TB Strategy at Risk?

Background: In 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the “post-2015 End TB strategy”, that aims to end the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted global public health and the strict measures to control the coronavirus spread can affect the management of other diseases, such as TB. Herein, we aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of TB in Brazil, during 2020.

Methods: We carried out an ecological and population-based study, using spatial analysis techniques. The variables used were the new cases of TB, pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), and also baciloscopy-positive (BP) cases in Brazil between 2015 and 2020. The percentage of changes (% change) was calculated to verify if there was an increase or decrease of TB cases in 2020, along with time trend analyses given by Joinpoint regression model. Also, interrupted time series analyses were used to assess the trend of TB diagnosis before and after the onset of the COVID-19 in Brazil. Spatial distribution maps were elaborated, considering the % change of each Brazilian state.

Findings: Data analyses showed a reduction in the diagnosis of TB (−8.3%) and PTB (−8.1%) in Brazil after the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic. Likewise, 22 states depicted a reduction in TB diagnosis. An expressive reduction of BP cases (−17.1%) was also observed. Interestingly, interrupted time series analysis showed decline in TB and PTB diagnoses from March 2020. Spatial analyses revealed that all states had a progressive reduction of TB, PTB and PB cases, from March on, with the highest percentages of reduction in December (−100% to −75%).

Interpretation: Taken together, our analyses demonstrated a reduction in TB diagnosis after the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its regions, signaling a serious impact on the WHO “End TB Strategy” global plan.

Chagas Disease-Related Mortality in Spain, 1997 to 2018

Background. Chagas disease (CD) is associated with excess mortality in infected people in endemic countries, but little information is available in non-endemic countries. The aim of the study was to analyze mortality in patients admitted to the hospital with CD in Spain. Methods. A retrospective, observational study using the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database. We used the CD diagnostic codes of the 9th and 10th International Classification of Diseases to retrieve CD cases from the national public registry from 1997 to 2018. Results. Of the 5022 hospital admissions in people with CD, there were 56 deaths (case fatality rate (CFR) 1.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8%, 1.4%), 20 (35.7%) of which were considered directly related to CD. The median age was higher in those who died (54.5 vs. 38 years; p < 0.001). The CFR increased with age, peaking in the 70–79-year (7.9%, odds ratio (OR) 6.27, 95% CI 1.27, 30.90) and 80–89-year (16.7%, OR 14.7, 95% CI 2.70, 79.90) age groups. Men comprised a higher proportion of those who died compared to survivors (50% vs. 22.6%; p < 0.001). Non-survivors were more likely to have neoplasms (19.6% vs. 3.4%; p < 0.001), heart failure (17.9% vs. 7.2%; p = 0.002), diabetes (12.5% vs. 3.7%; p = 0.001), chronic kidney failure (8.9% vs. 1.6%; p < 0.001), and HIV (8.9% vs. 0.8%; p < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, the variables associated with mortality were age (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.07), male sex (aOR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03, 3.14), cancer (aOR: 4.84, 95% CI 2.13, 11.22), and HIV infection (aOR 14.10 95% CI 4.88, 40.73). Conclusions. The case fatality rate of CD hospitalization was about 1%. The mortality risk increased with age, male sex, cancer, and HIV infection.

Levels and trends in Chagas disease-related mortality in Brazil, 2000-2019

Chagas disease remains an important public health problem with high morbidity and mortality in several Latin American countries. This nationwide population-based ecological study analyzes the epidemiological characteristics and time trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in Brazil, 2000-2019. We included all deaths reported in Brazil in which Chagas disease was mentioned in the death certificate either as an underlying or associated cause of death (multiple causes of death). Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) were calculated and time trends analysis was performed using joinpoint regression models. In the study period, a total of 22,663,092 deaths were recorded in Brazil. Chagas disease was identified in 122,291 deaths (0.54%), 94.788 (77.5%) as an underlying cause and 27,503 (22.5%) as an associated cause. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 3.22 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.14-3.30). Chronic Chagas disease with cardiac involvement was the predominant clinical presentation mentioned. The highest mortality rates were observed in males, age group ≥80 years, black race/skin color, schooling 1-3 years of study, and residents in the Central-West region. Age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant declining trend at the national level in the period (Average Annual Percent Change: -3.1%; 95% CI: -3.3; -3.0), with different local patterns and a more pronounced reduction in important endemic areas in the past. The findings show that, despite a consistent decline in mortality rates in Brazil over the study period, Chagas disease remains an important and neglected cause of death in the country, showing a marked regional variation that has social and health care implications. In addition to the control measures for disease transmission, it is necessary to guarantee access, coverage, and quality of health care to Chagas disease patients, seeking to prevent the occurrence of severe forms and deaths from the disease.