Clinical and laboratory predictors of 30-day mortality in severe acute malnourished children with severe pneumonia

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Under-five mortality remains concentrated in resource-poor countries. Post-discharge mortality is becoming increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to overall child mortality. With a substantial recent expansion of research and novel data synthesis methods, this study aims to update the current evidence base by providing a more nuanced understanding of the burden and associated risk factors of pediatric post-discharge mortality after acute illness.

Methods

Eligible studies published between January 1, 2017 and January 31, 2023, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. Studies published before 2017 were identified in a previous review and added to the total pool of studies. Only studies from countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index with a post-discharge observation period greater than seven days were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies. Studies were grouped by patient population, and 6-month post-discharge mortality rates were quantified by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, pooled risk factor estimates, and pooled post-discharge Kaplan-Meier survival curves. PROSPERO study registration: #CRD42022350975.

Findings

Of 1963 articles screened, 42 eligible articles were identified and combined with 22 articles identified in the previous review, resulting in 64 total articles. These articles represented 46 unique patient cohorts and included a total of 105,560 children. For children admitted with a general acute illness, the pooled risk of mortality six months post-discharge was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.5%-5.4%, I2 = 94.2%, n = 11 studies, 34,457 children), and the pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2%-7.7%, I2 = 98.7%, n = 12 studies, 63,307 children). Among disease subgroups, severe malnutrition (12.2%, 95% CI: 6.2%-19.7%, I2 = 98.2%, n = 10 studies, 7760 children) and severe anemia (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.2%-9.1%, I2 = 93.3%, n = 9 studies, 7806 children) demonstrated the highest 6-month post-discharge mortality estimates. Diarrhea demonstrated the shortest median time to death (3.3 weeks) and anemia the longest (8.9 weeks). Most significant risk factors for post-discharge mortality included unplanned discharges, severe malnutrition, and HIV seropositivity.

Interpretation

Pediatric post-discharge mortality rates remain high in resource-poor settings, especially among children admitted with malnutrition or anemia. Global health strategies must prioritize this health issue by dedicating resources to research and policy innovation.

Funding

No specific funding was received.

Prevalence and impact of malnutrition on outcomes and mortality of under-five years children with pneumonia: a study from Upper Egypt

Malnutrition has adverse impacts on under-five children with pneumonia. The purpose of this study was to address the prevalence and impact of malnutrition on under-five years children with pneumonia, admitted to a tertiary large children hospital in Upper Egypt. This study is a prospective case-control study. All under-five children diagnosed with pneumonia who were admitted to Assiut University Children's Hospital (AUCH) from January 1st to December 31st, 2021, were enrolled. Based on their nutritional assessment, the studied participants were classified into 2 groups: (1): Children with pneumonia and with nutritional deficiency considered as cases, and (2): Children with pneumonia and without nutritional deficiency considered as controls. Three hundred-fifty cases and 154 control subjects were enrolled, respectively. 93.4%, 31.1%, and 61.7% of the cases had underweight, stunting, and wasting, respectively. Among those cases, there were significant differences between survivors and non-survivors with regard to some clinicodemographic factors, laboratory parameters, and anthropometric parameters. Lack of compulsory vaccination, presence of sepsis, and blood transfusion (OR 2.874, 95% CI 0.048 - 2.988, p = 0.004, 2.627, 0.040 - 2.677, p = 0.009, and 4.108, 0.134 - 3.381, p < 0.001, respectively) were significant independent predictors for mortality among malnourished children with pneumonia.    Conclusion: Malnutrition has a high prevalence in under-five children with pneumonia in our locality. It has adverse effects on the outcomes and in-hospital mortality of those children. Lack of compulsory vaccination, presence of sepsis, and blood transfusion were significant independent predictors of mortality in malnourished children with pneumonia. Larger multicenter studies are warranted. What is Known: • Malnutrition has adverse impacts on under-five children with pneumonia. • Malnutrition could be a reason for in-hospital mortality among under-five children with pneumonia. What is New: • Malnutrition has a high prevalence in under-five children with pneumonia in Upper Egypt, with its adverse effects on the outcomes and mortality of those children. • Lack of vaccination, presence of sepsis, and blood transfusion are significant independent predictors of mortality in malnourished children with pneumonia in Upper Egypt.

The Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) Can Predict Sepsis's Presence and Severity in Malnourished Infants-A Single Center Experience

Sepsis represents one of the leading causes of death in newborns and infants, and prompt diagnosis is essential for achieving favorable outcomes. Regarding malnourished children with concurrent infection, most studies have focused, besides blood culture, on C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. Because malnutrition has a deleterious effect on cellular immune competence, the present study characterized the acute-phase response, including hematological indices, in response to sepsis. Among the examined laboratory biomarkers, procalcitonin and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were the most accurate discriminators between sepsis patients and those with bacterial infection. Moreover, these two parameters showed a gradual increase between sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock patients (p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis of the sepsis group revealed positive correlations of NLR with prolonged ICU stay (<0.001), acute organ dysfunction (0.038), mechanical ventilation (<0.001), and fatality (<0.001). In summary, our results suggest that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio can be used as an auxiliary diagnostic index in discriminating the presence and severity of bacterial sepsis in malnourished infants.

Derivation and validation of a clinical prediction model for risk-stratification of children hospitalized with severe pneumonia in Bangladesh

Children with severe pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suffer from high rates of treatment failure despite appropriate World Health Organization (WHO)-directed antibiotic treatment. Developing a clinical prediction rule for treatment failure may allow early identification of high-risk patients and timely intervention to decrease mortality. We used data from two separate studies conducted at the Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) to derive and externally validate a clinical prediction rule for treatment failure of children hospitalized with severe pneumonia. The derivation dataset was from a randomized clinical trial conducted from 2018 to 2019, studying children aged 2 to 59 months hospitalized with severe pneumonia as defined by WHO. Treatment failure was defined by the persistence of danger signs at the end of 48 hours of antibiotic treatment or the appearance of any new danger signs within 24 hours of enrollment. We built a random forest model to identify the top predictors. The top six predictors were the presence of grunting, room air saturation, temperature, the presence of lower chest wall indrawing, the presence of respiratory distress, and central cyanosis. Using these six predictors, we created a parsimonious model with a discriminatory performance of 0.691, as measured by area under the receiving operating curve (AUC). We performed external validation using a temporally distinct dataset from a cohort study of 191 similarly aged children with severe acute malnutrition and pneumonia. In external validation, discriminatory performance was maintained with an improved AUC of 0.718. In conclusion, we developed and externally validated a parsimonious six-predictor model using random forest methods to predict treatment failure in young children with severe pneumonia in Bangladesh. These findings can be used to further develop and validate parsimonious and pragmatic prognostic clinical prediction rules for pediatric pneumonia, particularly in LMICs.

Physical Quality of Life of Sepsis Survivor Severely Malnourished Children after Hospital Discharge: Findings from a Retrospective Chart Analysis

BACKGROUND

Quality of life (QoL) among pediatric sepsis survivors in resource-limited countries is poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the QoL among sepsis survivors, by comparing them with non-sepsis survivors three months after hospital discharge.

METHODOLOGY

In this retrospective chart analysis with a case-control design, we compared children having sepsis and non-sepsis at hospital admission and during their post-hospitalization life, where the study population was derived from a hospital cohort of 405 severely malnourished children having pneumonia.

RESULTS

The median age (months, inter-quartile range) of the children having sepsis and non-sepsis was 10 (5, 17) and 9 (5, 18), respectively. Approximately half of the children among the sepsis survivors had new episodes of respiratory symptoms at home. Though death was significantly higher (15.8% vs. 2.7%, p ≤ 0.001) at admission among the sepsis group, deaths during post-hospitalization life (7.8% vs. 8.8%, p = 0.878) were comparable. A verbal autopsy revealed that before death, most of the children from the sepsis group had respiratory complaints, whereas gastrointestinal complaints were more common among the non-sepsis group.

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric sepsis is life-threatening both during hospitalization and post-discharge. The QoL after sepsis is compromised, including re-hospitalization and the development of new episodes of respiratory symptoms especially before death.

Intravenous Amoxicillin Plus Intravenous Gentamicin for Children with Severe Pneumonia in Bangladesh: An Open-Label, Randomized, Non-Inferiority Controlled Trial

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends intravenous (IV) ampicillin and gentamicin as first-line therapy to treat severe pneumonia in children under five years of age. Ampicillin needs to be administered at a six-hourly interval, which requires frequent nursing intervention and bed occupancy for 5-7 days, limiting its utility in resource-poor settings. We compared the efficacy of IV amoxicillin over IV ampicillin, which is a potential alternative drug in treating severe pneumonia in children between 2-59 months. We conducted an unblinded, randomized, controlled, non-inferiority trial in the Dhaka hospital of icddr,b from 1 January 2018 to 31 October 2019. Children from 2-59 months of age presenting with WHO defined severe pneumonia with respiratory danger signs were randomly assigned 1:1 to either 50 mg/kg ampicillin or 40 mg/kg amoxicillin per day with 7.5 mg/kg gentamicin. The primary outcome was treatment failure as per the standard definition of persistence of danger sign(s) of severe pneumonia beyond 48 h or deterioration within 24 h of therapy initiation. The secondary outcomes were: (i) time required for resolution of danger signs since enrolment, (ii) length of hospital stay, (iii) death during hospitalization, and (iv) rate of nosocomial infections. Among 308 enrolled participants, baseline characteristics were similar among the two groups. Sixty-two (20%) children ended up with treatment failure, 21 (14%) in amoxicillin, and 41 (27%) in ampicillin arm, which is statistically significant (relative risk [RR] 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.82; p = 0.004). We reported 14 deaths for serious adverse events, 4 (3%) and 10 (6%) among amoxicillin and ampicillin arm, respectively. IV amoxicillin and IV gentamicin combination is not inferior to combined IV ampicillin and IV gentamicin in treating severe pneumonia in under-five children in Bangladesh. Considering the less frequent dosing and more compliance, IV amoxicillin is a better choice for treating children with severe pneumonia in resource-limited settings.