Changes in the dynamics of dengue incidence in South and Central America are possibly due to cross-population immunity after Zika virus epidemics

Efficacy and safety of Butantan-DV in participants aged 2-59 years through an extended follow-up: results from a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3, multicentre trial in Brazil

BACKGROUND

A single-dose dengue vaccine that protects individuals across a wide age range and regardless of dengue serostatus is an unmet need. We assessed the safety and efficacy of the live, attenuated, tetravalent Butantan-dengue vaccine (Butantan-DV) in adults, adolescents, and children. We previously reported the primary and secondary efficacy and safety endpoints in the initial 2 years of follow-up. Here we report the results through an extended follow-up period, with an average of 3·7 years of follow-up.

METHODS

In this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3, multicentre trial in Brazil, healthy participants (aged 2-59 years) who had not previously received a dengue vaccine were enrolled and randomly assigned 2:1 (stratified by age 18-59 years, 7-17 years, and 2-6 years) using a central electronic randomisation system to receive 0·5 mL of Butantan-DV (containing approximately 103 plaque-forming units of each of the four vaccine virus strains) or placebo, administered subcutaneously. Syringes containing vaccine or placebo were prepared by an unmasked trial pharmacist who was not involved in any subsequent participant assessments; other site staff and the participants remained unaware of the group allocations. Vaccine efficacy was calculated with the accrual of virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) cases (by RT-PCR) at least 28 days after vaccination up until the cutoff (at least 2 years of follow-up from the last participant enrolled). The primary endpoint was vaccine efficacy against VCD after day 28 by any dengue virus (DENV) serotype regardless of dengue serostatus at baseline in the per-protocol population. The primary and secondary safety endpoints up until day 21 were previously reported; secondary safety endpoints include the frequency of unsolicited vaccine-related adverse events after day 22. Safety analyses were done on all participants as treated. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02406729) and is ongoing.

FINDINGS

Of 16 363 participants assessed for eligibility, 16 235 were randomly assigned between Feb 22, 2016, and July 5, 2019, and received single-dose Butantan-DV (10 259 participants) or placebo (5976 participants). 16 162 participants (Butantan-DV n=10 215; placebo n=5947) were included in the per-protocol population and 16 235 (Butantan-DV n=10 259; placebo n=5976) in the safety population. At the data cutoff (July 13, 2021), participants had 2-5 years of follow-up (mean 3·7 years [SD 1·0], median 4·0 years [IQR 3·2-4·5]). 356 VCD cases were captured through the follow-up (128 in the vaccine group and 228 in the placebo group). Vaccine efficacy against VCD caused by any DENV serotype was 67·3% (95% CI 59·4-73·9); cases caused by DENV-3 or DENV-4 were not observed. The proportions of participants who had serious adverse events were similar between treatment groups (637 [6·2%] in the vaccine group and 395 [6·6%] in the placebo group) up until the cutoff.

INTERPRETATION

A single dose of Butantan-DV was generally well tolerated and efficacious against symptomatic VCD (caused by DENV-1 and DENV-2) for a mean of 3·7 years. These findings support the continued development of Butantan-DV to prevent dengue disease in children, adolescents, and adults regardless of dengue serostatus.

FUNDING

Instituto Butantan and Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Dengue hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality changes in trend in Ecuador: a nationwide study from 2015 to 2022

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to analyze dengue hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality trends in Ecuador, along with sociodemographic factors influencing adverse outcomes.

METHODS

This study included 31,616 dengue hospitalizations in Ecuador during 2015-2022, of which 115 (0.36%) died. Data were extracted from national hospital registries. Age adjusted rates were calculated, and for the analysis of changes in trend, a Joinpoint regression was performed. Multivariate binary and multinomial logistic regressions were performed for assessing sociodemographic factors influencing dengue adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

During 2015-2022, the mean age adjusted dengue hospitalization rate was 22.3 per 100,000 inhabitants with 49.41% annual decrease during 2015-2017 and 31.73% annual increase during 2017-2022 with higher rates in 2020 with 31.61, 2021 with 34.42, and 2022 with 25.81. The mean dengue in-hospital mortality rate was 0.08, mortality rates did not show significant changes during 2015-2022. Higher probability of death was observed in ages ≥50 years and ethnic minorities. People living in rural areas exhibited a 64% higher risk for complicated dengue hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

It was observed as an important accomplishment in Ecuador's ongoing efforts to improve healthcare regarding dengue. 0.36% of dengue hospitalizations ended in death which is below the recommended 1%. The increase in dengue hospitalizations in Ecuador during recent years remains a concern. The COVID-19 pandemic might have influenced dengue prevention and vector control to be neglected leading to an increase in cases.

Live, Attenuated, Tetravalent Butantan-Dengue Vaccine in Children and Adults

BACKGROUND

Butantan-Dengue Vaccine (Butantan-DV) is an investigational, single-dose, live, attenuated, tetravalent vaccine against dengue disease, but data on its overall efficacy are needed.

METHODS

In an ongoing phase 3, double-blind trial in Brazil, we randomly assigned participants to receive Butantan-DV or placebo, with stratification according to age (2 to 6 years, 7 to 17 years, and 18 to 59 years); 5 years of follow-up is planned. The objectives of the trial were to evaluate overall vaccine efficacy against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue of any serotype occurring more than 28 days after vaccination (the primary efficacy end point), regardless of serostatus at baseline, and to describe safety up to day 21 (the primary safety end point). Here, vaccine efficacy was assessed on the basis of 2 years of follow-up for each participant, and safety as solicited vaccine-related adverse events reported up to day 21 after injection. Key secondary objectives were to assess vaccine efficacy among participants according to dengue serostatus at baseline and according to the dengue viral serotype; efficacy according to age was also assessed.

RESULTS

Over a 3-year enrollment period, 16,235 participants received either Butantan-DV (10,259 participants) or placebo (5976 participants). The overall 2-year vaccine efficacy was 79.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 70.0 to 86.3) - 73.6% (95% CI, 57.6 to 83.7) among participants with no evidence of previous dengue exposure and 89.2% (95% CI, 77.6 to 95.6) among those with a history of exposure. Vaccine efficacy was 80.1% (95% CI, 66.0 to 88.4) among participants 2 to 6 years of age, 77.8% (95% CI, 55.6 to 89.6) among those 7 to 17 years of age, and 90.0% (95% CI, 68.2 to 97.5) among those 18 to 59 years of age. Efficacy against DENV-1 was 89.5% (95% CI, 78.7 to 95.0) and against DENV-2 was 69.6% (95% CI, 50.8 to 81.5). DENV-3 and DENV-4 were not detected during the follow-up period. Solicited systemic vaccine- or placebo-related adverse events within 21 days after injection were more common with Butantan-DV than with placebo (58.3% of participants, vs. 45.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

A single dose of Butantan-DV prevented symptomatic DENV-1 and DENV-2, regardless of dengue serostatus at baseline, through 2 years of follow-up. (Funded by Instituto Butantan and others; DEN-03-IB ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02406729, and WHO ICTRP number, U1111-1168-8679.).

Convergent trends and spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico and Central America

BACKGROUND

Aedes-borne arboviruses cause both seasonal epidemics and emerging outbreaks with a significant impact on global health. These viruses share mosquito vector species, often infecting the same host population within overlapping geographic regions. Thus, comparative analyses of the virus evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics across spatial and temporal scales could reveal convergent trends.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Focusing on Mexico as a case study, we generated novel chikungunya and dengue (CHIKV, DENV-1 and DENV-2) virus genomes from an epidemiological surveillance-derived historical sample collection, and analysed them together with longitudinally-collected genome and epidemiological data from the Americas. Aedes-borne arboviruses endemically circulating within the country were found to be introduced multiple times from lineages predominantly sampled from the Caribbean and Central America. For CHIKV, at least thirteen introductions were inferred over a year, with six of these leading to persistent transmission chains. For both DENV-1 and DENV-2, at least seven introductions were inferred over a decade.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results suggest that CHIKV, DENV-1 and DENV-2 in Mexico share evolutionary and epidemiological trajectories. The southwest region of the country was determined to be the most likely location for viral introductions from abroad, with a subsequent spread into the Pacific coast towards the north of Mexico. Virus diffusion patterns observed across the country are likely driven by multiple factors, including mobility linked to human migration from Central towards North America. Considering Mexico's geographic positioning displaying a high human mobility across borders, our results prompt the need to better understand the role of anthropogenic factors in the transmission dynamics of Aedes-borne arboviruses, particularly linked to land-based human migration.

Arbovirus detection in synanthropic mosquitoes from the Brazilian Amazon and in mosquito saliva using Flinders Technology Associates cards

Although arbovirus transmission and identifying target vectors may provide a baseline for planning disease control strategies, there are many gaps in knowledge regarding these mosquitoes and viral species in urban, rural, or sylvatic habitats in the Brazilian Amazon. Our goal was to screen for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in synanthropic mosquitoes and with Flinders Technology Associates (FTA) cards using insect saliva. Mosquitoes were caught using ovitraps and aspirators in the city of Porto Velho, Rondônia, Brazil. Honey-baited FTA cards were placed in mosquito cages for 15 days; whole mosquitoes and FTA cards were analysed for viral RNA using RT-qPCR assays. One pool of Aedes aegypti females was found to be infected with the Zika virus and one male mosquito was infected with dengue-4, suggesting natural vertical/venereal transmission. Our study also reported evidence of vertical/venereal transmission of ZIKV in Culex quinquefasciatus males for the first time in the Brazilian Amazon, and the feasibility of using FTA cards to detect arboviruses in the saliva of field-collected mosquitoes. Vertical/venereal transmission of viruses by atypical mosquito species reinforces the need for combined viral and entomological screening in arbovirus surveillance programs.

Democratizing Public Health: Participatory Policymaking Institutions, Mosquito Control, and Zika in the Americas

The Zika virus is a mosquito-borne virus spread primarily by Aedes mosquitoes. Zika cases have been detected throughout the mosquito's range, with an epidemic occurring from 2015 to 2017 in Brazil. Many Zika cases are mild or asymptomatic, but infections in pregnant women can cause microcephaly in children, and a small percentage of cases result in Guillan-Barré syndrome. There is currently little systematic information surrounding the municipal spread of the Zika Virus in Brazil. This article uses coarsened exact matching with negative binomial estimation and ordinary least squares estimation to assess the determinants of Zika incidence across the ~280,000 cases confirmed and recorded by Brazil's Ministry of Health in 2016 and 2017. These data come from Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests in Brazil and have not been published. We use data on the universe of individual Zika cases in Brazil and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to examine the virus at the municipal level across 5570 municipalities and construct a unique, unusually rich dataset covering daily Zika transmission. Additionally, our dataset includes corresponding local data on democratic governance, mosquito control efforts, and environmental conditions to estimate their relationship to Zika transmission. The results demonstrate that the presence of subnational democratic, participatory policymaking institutions and high levels of local state capacity are associated with low rates of Zika contraction. These models control for local healthcare spending and economic conditions, among other factors, that also influence Zika contraction rates. In turn, these findings provide a better understanding of what works for local health governance and mosquito control and makes important data public so that scholars and practitioners can perform their own analyses. Stronger models of Zika transmission will then inform mosquito abatement efforts across the Global South, as well as provide a blueprint for combatting Dengue fever, which is also transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes.

Effects of public health emergencies of international concern on disease control: a systematic review

Objectives

To assess the accumulated knowledge of the effects of public health emergencies of international concern on disease control and local health systems, and contribute to a better understanding of their effects on health programs and systems.

Methods

This was a systematic review of published and gray literature (in English, Portuguese, or Spanish). Electronic databases (BVS/LILACS, PubMed, and SciELO) and Google Scholar were searched. Search terms were: COVID-19 OR H1N1 OR Ebola OR Zika OR poliomyelitis AND (outbreaks OR epidemics) AND (public health systems OR public health surveillance).

Results

A total of 3 508 studies were retrieved, of which 31 met the inclusion criteria. The studies addressed the effects of the emergencies on: communicable diseases notification systems; malaria, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, poliomyelitis, and malaria surveillance, control, and treatment; microcephaly; dengue; and vaccinations. The populations affected by the emergencies experienced reduced health services, which included fewer health visits, failures in the diagnostic chain, decrease in vaccination, and increased incidence or underreporting of notifiable diseases.

Conclusions

Socioeconomic inequity is a determinant of the effects of public health emergencies of international concern within affected populations. The diversion of resources and attention from health authorities disproportionately affects vulnerable populations and can lead, over time, to a weakening of health systems. The analysis of the effects of public health emergencies is important for the development of new protocols that can better respond to future crises.

Impact of Infectious Disease on Humans and Our Origins

On May 16, 2020, the Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny organized the symposium “Impact of Infectious Disease on Humans and Our Origins”. The symposium aimed to gather experts on infectious diseases in one place and discuss the interrelationship between different pathogens and humans in an evolutionary context. The talks discussed topics including SARS-CoV-2, dengue and Zika, the notion of human-specific diseases, streptococci, microbiome in the human reproductive tract, Salmonella enterica, malaria, and human immunological memory.

Epidemiologic History and Genetic Diversity Origins of Chikungunya and Dengue Viruses, Paraguay

Paraguay has been severely affected by emergent Zika and chikungunya viruses, and dengue virus is endemic. To learn more about the origins of genetic diversity and epidemiologic history of these viruses in Paraguay, we deployed portable sequencing technologies to strengthen genomic surveillance and determine the evolutionary and epidemic history of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses). Samples stored at the Paraguay National Central Laboratory were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. Among 33 virus genomes generated, we identified 2 genotypes of chikungunya and 2 serotypes of dengue virus that circulated in Paraguay during 2014–2018; the main source of these virus lineages was estimated to be Brazil. The evolutionary history inferred by our analyses precisely matched the available travel history of the patients. The genomic surveillance approach used was valuable for describing the epidemiologic history of arboviruses and can be used to determine the origins and evolution of future arbovirus outbreaks.

Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.

Zika and dengue incidence in the Americas declined in 2017–2018, but dengue resurged in 2019 in Brazil. This study uses epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to show that the decline of dengue may be explained by protective immunity from pre-exposure to ZIKV and/or DENV in prior years.

A prospective, multicentre, cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue illness in households from selected communities in Brazil (2014-2018)

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the incidence of dengue infection across geographically distinct areas of Brazil.

METHODS

This prospective, household-based, cohort study enrolled participants in five areas and followed them up for up to 4 years (2014-2018). Dengue seroprevalence was assessed at each scheduled visit. Suspected dengue cases were identified through enhanced passive and active surveillance. Acute symptomatic dengue infection was confirmed through reverse-transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction in combination with an antigenic assay (non-structural protein 1) and serology.

RESULTS

Among 3300 participants enrolled, baseline seroprevalence was 76.2%, although only 23.3% of participants reported a history of dengue. Of 1284 suspected symptomatic dengue cases detected, 50 (3.9%) were laboratory-confirmed. Based on 8166.5 person-years (PY) of follow-up, the incidence of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic infection (primary endpoint) was 6.1 per 1000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.5, 8.1). Incidence varied substantially in different years (1.8-7.4 per 1000 PY). The incidence of inapparent primary dengue infection was substantially higher: 41.7 per 1000 PY (95% CI: 31.1, 54.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings, highlighting that the incidence of dengue infection is underestimated in Brazil, will inform the design and implementation of future dengue vaccine trials.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01751139.