Decision making in the face of uncertainty: the challenge of emerging infectious diseases

Perceived uncertainty stress and its predictors among residents in China during the COVID-19 pandemic

The prevalence of and risk factors for uncertainty stress among residents during the COVID-19 pandemic remain unclear. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted to explore and identify the risk factors for high perceived uncertainty stress among the general public in China during the COVID-19 outbreak. Information about the respondents' socioeconomic characteristics, knowledge of and attitudes towards COVID-19, perceived uncertainty stress, social capital, anxiety, and depressive symptoms was collected and analysed. Among the 1205 respondents, 45.3% (546) reported a high level of uncertainty stress. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that anxiety (β=3.871,P<0.001) and depression symptoms (β=2.458, P<0.001), family residence (in towns or rural areas) (β=0.947, P<0.001), lack of support for local epidemic control strategies (β=1.253, P<0.001), worry about the pandemic (β=1.191, P<0.001), and symptoms of weakness among family members (β=1.525, P=0.002) were positively associated with perceived uncertainty stress. Cognitive social capital (β=-0.883, P<0.001) and social networks (β=-0.726, P<0.001) were negatively, but social participation (β=0.714, P<0.001) was positively associated with perceived uncertainty stress. Our findings identify factors associated with a higher level of uncertainty stress and should be helpful in the consideration of effective policies and interventions for uncertainty stress during the initial phases of public health emergencies.

Zika Virus and the Safety of Blood Supply in Brazil: A Retrospective Epidemiological Evaluation

The potential for transfusion transmission of dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) has raised concerns about the safety of the blood supply in endemic areas. In this study, nucleic acid testing (NAT) for ZIKV, DENV, and CHIKV RNA was performed in asymptomatic blood donor samples in the city of Campinas, located in the southeast region of Brazil (1962 in 2015 and 1775 in 2016). The prevalence of reactive NAT was 0.15% in 2015 and 0.62% in 2016 for dengue, 0.05% in 2015 and 0.17% in 2016 for Zika, and 0% in both years for chikungunya. These results demonstrate the weakness of the clinical interview in screening these blood donors. Furthermore, positivity for ZIKV was detected in March 2015, 1 year before the first reported cases in the region. These data attest the feasibility of using donor samples held in library as a tool for retrospective epidemiological evaluation, which is particularly interesting considering emerging pathogens, for which data on their spread and penetrance are initially scarce.