Predicting skin cancer in organ transplant recipients: development of the SUNTRAC screening tool using data from a multicenter cohort study

[Translated article] Risk of Skin Cancer Associated with Disease-Modifying Therapies in Multiple Sclerosis: A Comprehensive Evidence Review

The use of disease-modifying therapies (DMT) has led to a paradigm shift in the management of multiple sclerosis. A comprehensive narrative review was conducted through an extensive literature search including Medline and Google Scholar to elucidate the link between DMT and the propensity of cutaneous malignancies. Sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor modulators, such as fingolimod and siponimod are associated with a higher risk of basal cell carcinoma (BCC), but not squamous cell carcinoma, or melanoma. The associated physiopathological mechanisms are not fully understood. Alemtuzumab and cladribine show isolated associations with skin cancer. Regarding other DMT, no increased risk has ever been found. Given the evidence currently available, it is of paramount importance to advocate for necessary dermatological assessments that should be individualized to the risk profile of each patient. Nonetheless, additional prospective studies are still needed to establish efficient dermatological follow-up protocols.

The "Personalising Actinic Keratosis Treatment for Immunocompromised Patients" (IM-PAKT) Project: An Expert Panel Opinion

Actinic keratosis (AK) is an intraepithelial condition characterized by the development of scaly, erythematous lesions after repeated exposure to ultraviolet radiation. Significant immunosuppression is a risk factor for the development of AK and subsequent lesion progression to squamous cell carcinoma. Immunocompromised patients (ICPs), particularly organ transplant recipients, often have more advanced or complex AK presentations and an increased risk of skin carcinomas versus non-ICPs with AK, making lesions more difficult to treat and resulting in worse treatment outcomes. The recent "Personalising Actinic Keratosis Treatment" (PAKT) consensus reported that delivering patient-centric care may play a role in supporting better clinical outcomes and patient satisfaction with treatments for chronic dermatologic conditions such as AK, which require repeated cycles of treatment. Additionally, currently published guidance and recommendations were considered by the PAKT panel to be overly broad for managing ICPs with their unique and complex needs. Therefore, the "Personalising Actinic Keratosis Treatment for Immunocompromised Patients" (IM-PAKT) panel was established to build upon general recommendations from the PAKT consensus. The panel identified current gaps in guidance for AK care in ICPs, offered practical care approaches based on typical ICP scenarios, and highlighted the need to adapt AK management to optimize care and improve treatment outcomes in ICPs. In particular, dermatologists should establish collaborative and transparent relationships with patients' multidisciplinary teams to enhance overall care for patients' comorbidities: given their increased risk of progression to malignancy, earlier assessments/interventions and frequent follow-ups are vital.The panel also developed a novel "triage" tool outlining effective treatment follow-up and disease surveillance plans tailored to patients' risk profiles, guided by current clinical presentation and relevant medical history. Additionally, we present the panel's expert opinion on three fictional ICP scenarios to explain their decision-making process for assessing and managing typical ICPs that they may encounter in clinical practice.

Outcomes in solid organ transplant recipients with a pretransplant diagnosis of melanoma

Melanoma causes significant morbidity in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs). Melanomas diagnosed before transplantation can recur with intensive immunosuppression, but outcomes have not been well studied. We evaluated 901 non-Hispanic White SOTRs with a pretransplant melanoma identified using linked transplant and cancer registry data in the United States. Most pretransplant melanomas were invasive (60.7%), and the median time from diagnosis to transplantation was 5.1 years. After transplantation, 41 SOTRs developed a new invasive melanoma, corresponding to 9-fold increased risk compared with the general population (standardized incidence ratio, 9.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.6-12). Twenty-two SOTRs died from melanoma after transplantation, corresponding to 52-fold increased risk (standardized mortality ratio, 52; 95% CI, 33-79). Risk factors for posttransplant melanoma included age at transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.86; 95% CI, 1.24-6.60; for age 55+ vs <55 years) and maintenance immunosuppression with cyclosporine/azathioprine (adjusted HR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.08-5.90). Melanoma mortality was strongly elevated after a posttransplant melanoma diagnosis (HR, 35.6; 95% CI, 14.0-90.4; adjusted for cyclosporine/azathioprine maintenance therapy and calendar year of transplantation). In conclusion, SOTRs with a pretransplant melanoma are at risk of adverse melanoma-related outcomes after transplantation. These findings support thorough dermatologic evaluation prior to transplantation and frequent posttransplant surveillance.

Cumulative incidence and risk factors for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma metastases in organ transplant recipients: The Skin Care in Organ Transplant Patients in Europe-International Transplant Skin Cancer Collaborative metastases study, a prospective multicenter study

INTRODUCTION

Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are believed to have an increased risk of metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), but reliable data are lacking regarding the precise incidence and associated risk factors.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort study, including 19 specialist dermatology outpatient clinics in 15 countries, patient and tumor characteristics were collected using standardized questionnaires when SOTRs presented with a new cSCC. After a minimum of 2 years of follow-up, relevant data for all SOTRs were collected. Cumulative incidence of metastases was calculated by the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Fine and Gray models were used to assess multiple risk factors for metastases.

RESULTS

Of 514 SOTRs who presented with 623 primary cSCCs, metastases developed in 37 with a 2-year patient-based cumulative incidence of 6.2%. Risk factors for metastases included location in the head and neck area, local recurrence, size > 2 cm, clinical ulceration, poor differentiation grade, perineural invasion, and deep invasion. A high-stage tumor that is also ulcerated showed the highest risk of metastasis, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of 46.2% (31.9%-68.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

SOTRs have a high risk of cSCC metastases and well-established clinical and histologic risk factors have been confirmed. High-stage, ulcerated cSCCs have the highest risk of metastasis.

Cumulative incidence and timing of subsequent cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas stratified for patients with organ transplantation and hematologic malignancies: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is lack of nationwide data on the cumulative incidence and timing of subsequent cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas (cSCCs) among patients with a first cSCC.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the cumulative incidence and timing of subsequent cSCCs.

METHODS

Patients with a first cSCC in 2007/2008 from the Netherlands Cancer Registry were linked to the Netherlands Pathology Registry for subsequent cSCCs and the Netherlands Organ Transplant Registry. Cumulative incidence function curves were calculated for subsequent cSCCs and stratified for immune status.

RESULTS

Among the 12,345 patients, second to sixth cSCC occurred in 4325, 2010, 1138, 739, and 501 patients, with median time intervals of 1.4, 1.2, 0.9, 0.6, and 0.5 years after the previous cSCC, respectively. The cumulative incidence of a subsequent cSCC at 5 years increased from 28% to 67% for the second to sixth cSCC. For solid organ transplant recipients, the cumulative incidences increased from 74% to 92% and from 41% to 64% for patients with hematologic malignancy.

LIMITATIONS

Only histopathologically confirmed cSCCs were included.

CONCLUSION

The risk of a subsequent cSCC steeply rises with the number of prior cSCCs and immune status, while the time interval decreases. This can support more informed decisions about follow-up management.

Risk Factors and Innovations in Risk Assessment for Melanoma, Basal Cell Carcinoma, and Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Skin cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer globally and is preventable. Various risk factors contribute to different types of skin cancer, including melanoma, basal cell carcinoma, and squamous cell carcinoma. These risk factors encompass both extrinsic, such as UV exposure and behavioral components, and intrinsic factors, especially involving genetic predisposition. However, the specific risk factors vary among the skin cancer types, highlighting the importance of precise knowledge to facilitate appropriate early diagnosis and treatment for at-risk individuals. Better understanding of the individual risk factors has led to the development of risk scores, allowing the identification of individuals at particularly high risk. These advances contribute to improved prevention strategies, emphasizing the commitment to mitigating the impact of skin cancer.

Risk of skin cancer associated with disease-modifying therapies in multiple sclerosis: a modern comprehensive evidence review

The use of disease-modifying therapies (DMT) has led to a paradigm shift in the management of multiple sclerosis. A comprehensive narrative review was conducted through an extensive literature search including Medline and Google Scholar to elucidate the link between DMT and the propensity of cutaneous malignancies. Sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor modulators, such as fingolimod and siponimod are associated with a higher risk of basal cell carcinoma (BCC), but not squamous cell carcinoma, or melanoma. The associated physiopathological mechanisms are not fully understood. Alemtuzumab and cladribine show isolated associations with skin cancer. Regarding other DMT, no increased risk has ever been found. Given the evidence currently available, it is of paramount importance to advocate for necessary dermatological assessments that should be individualized to the risk profile of each patient. Nonetheless, additional prospective studies are still needed to establish efficient dermatological follow-up protocols.

Assessing the Skin and UV Neoplasia Transplant Risk Assessment Calculator in an Irish cohort of thoracic organ transplant recipients

The Skin and UV Neoplasia Transplant Risk Assessment Calculator (SUNTRAC) is a tool that can be used to decide when to first screen for skin cancer in organ transplant recipients (OTRs). The objective of this study was to assess the applicability of this tool in thoracic OTRs. Based on data from patient files, the OTRs were categorized into four risk groups according to the SUNTRAC tool. The time of the first post-transplant skin cancer in each OTR was recorded. The proportion of OTRs with post-transplant skin cancer in the low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups was 0%, 28.3%, 58.3% and 100%, respectively. This positive correlation suggests that SUNTRAC can be used to determine when to first screen for skin cancer in heart and lung OTRs.

European consensus-based interdisciplinary guideline for invasive cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. Part 1: Diagnostics and prevention-Update 2023

Invasive cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is one of the most common cancers in white populations, accounting for 20% of all cutaneous malignancies. Overall, cSCC mostly has very good prognosis after treatment, with 5-year cure rates greater than 90%. Despite the overall favourable prognosis and the proportionally rare deaths, cSCC is associated with a high total number of deaths due to its high incidence. A collaboration of multidisciplinary experts from the European Association of Dermato-Oncology (EADO), the European Dermatology Forum (EDF), the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology (ESTRO), the European Union of Medical Specialists (UEMS), the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (EADV) and the European Organization of Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC), was formed to update recommendations on cSCC, based on current literature and expert consensus. Part 1 of the guidelines addresses the updates on classification, epidemiology, diagnosis, risk stratification, staging and prevention in immunocompetent as well as immunosuppressed patients.

Catastrophic Merkel Cell Carcinoma in a Liver Transplant Recipient

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare skin cancer, is difficult to diagnose, and carries a high mortality rate. Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR) are at a disproportionately increased risk of MCC and other malignancies due to chronic immunosuppression. We discuss the case of a 47-year-old woman with a remote history of liver transplant on chronic immunosuppression with tacrolimus for over a decade who presented for a third recurrence of MCC on her left forearm. This case report underscores the importance of a risk-stratified approach to regular dermatologic care and skin cancer screening in this vulnerable population.

Identification of Genetic Risk Factors for Keratinocyte Cancer in Immunosuppressed Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: A Case-Control Study

Because of long-term immunosuppression, solid organ transplant recipients are at increased risk for keratinocyte cancer. We matched solid organ transplant patients (n = 150), cases with keratinocyte cancers and tumor-free controls, considering the most important risk factors for keratinocyte cancer in solid organ transplant recipients. Using whole exome data of germline DNA from this patient cohort, we identified several genetic loci associated with the occurrence of multiple keratinocyte cancers. We found one genome-wide significant association of a common single nucleotide polymorphism located in EXOC3 (rs72698504). In addition, we found several variants with a p-value of less than 10^-5 associated with the number of keratinocyte cancers. These variants were located in the genes CYB561, WASHC1, PITRM1-AS1, MUC8, ABI3BP, and THBS2-AS1. Using whole exome sequencing data, we performed groupwise tests for rare missense variants in our dataset and found robust associations (p < 10^-6, Burden Zeggini test) between MC1R, EPHA8, EPO, MYCT1, ADGRG3, and MGME1 and keratinocyte cancer. Thus, overall, we detected genes involved in pigmentation/UV protection, tumor suppression, immunomodulation, intracellular traffic, and response to UV as genetic risk factors for multiple keratinocyte cancers in solid organ transplant recipients. We also grouped selected genes to pathways and found a selection of genes involved in the "cellular response to UV" to be significantly associated with multiple keratinocyte cancers.

Comparison of Patient and Provider Practices between Bone Marrow and Solid Organ Transplantation Programs for Patient Education on Increased Risk of Skin Cancer

Patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy following transplantation are at risk for skin cancer owing to dampened tumor surveillance. As long-term immunotherapy is necessary to prevent graft rejection, transplantation providers and recipients are expected to perform regular surveillance for the development of suspicious lesions, and recipients are encouraged to practice preventative sun safe behaviors. No consensus exists regarding the timing of full body skin exams, and despite the well-established risk, patient education is not always prioritized. We investigated whether differences exist between bone marrow transplant (BMT) and organ transplant (OT) recipients and their providers regarding prevention and screening. We distributed surveys to adult and pediatric BMT and OT recipients, as well as their providers, at a single academic institution. Results were evaluated using the chi-square test. The survey results show that most BMT recipients (69%) and OT recipients (77%) were aware of their increased risk for skin cancer, but despite this knowledge, only 13% of patients overall reported using sunscreen, 29% reported reapplying sunscreen, and 48% reported wearing sun protective clothing. Most OT recipients (63%) reported never having a total body skin exam, whereas only 34% BMT recipients reported having a total body skin exam every 6 months (P = .006). BMT providers recommended a total body skin exam every 6 or 12 months (44.4% each), and OT providers recommended a total body skin exam every 12 months (58.3%). Only 11.1% of BMT providers and 8.3% of OT providers reported performing a total body skin exam at each visit. Despite results indicating widespread patient knowledge of skin cancer risk, most patients do not practice adequate prevention. Inclusion of a transplantation dermatologist in the care team or use of risk stratification tools by providers may help streamline timely referrals to Dermatology.

Skin Cancer Risk Prediction in Heart Transplant Recipients

OBJECTIVES

This study was undertaken to derive a risk prediction model for skin cancer utilizing the United Network for Organ Sharing database population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Of the 24734 adults (>18 years old) heart transplant recipients (2000-2015) in the United Network for Organ Sharing database, 2625 recipients developed skin cancer. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed; P values, hazard ratios, and confidence intervals were derived. The model was tested using receiver operating characteristics curves and area under the curves. MATLAB software (MathWorks) was used for analyses.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that White patients had a hazard ratio of 31.7 compared with Black patients (P < .001). Male patients had a hazard ratio of 2.52 (P < .001) compared with female patients. Malignancy at listing showed a hazard ratio of 1.77 (P < .001). Thymoglobulin had a hazard ratio of 1.19 (P = .005) compared with other induction agents. The receiver operating characteristic curves generated for 5 years, 8 years, and 10 years after transplant showed area under the curve values of 0.78, 0.77, and 0.76, respectively, in the training set and 0.75, 0.75, and 0.74, respectively, in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

Male sex, White ethnicity, older age, malignancy at the time of listing or at time of transplant, and thymoglobulin induction are major risk factors for skin cancers after transplant. This risk prediction model has a C statistic of 0.75. To our knowledge,this is the firsttime such a model has been generated for skin cancers in this population.

Characterizing Skin Cancer in Transplant Recipients by Fitzpatrick Skin Phototype

INTRODUCTION

Nearly half of organ transplants occur annually in patients with Fitzpatrick skin phototypes (Fitz type) III-VI. Organ transplant recipients (OTRs) are at risk for sequelae of chronic immunosuppression, of which skin cancer is common. As literature regarding skin cancer risk is largely conducted in OTRs with Fitz types I and II, we aimed to further characterize the incidence and risk factors for skin cancer in OTRs with higher Fitz types.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of OTRs with Fitz types III-VI evaluated by dermatology between 1 January 2012 and 1 June 2022. The primary outcome of this study was development of skin cancer post-transplant. Secondary outcomes included risk factors for skin cancer development. Data were analyzed using two-sample t-tests and Pearson's chi-squared.

RESULTS

Of 530 OTRs, 193 had Fitz type III or higher. Ten patients (5.18%) developed 87 skin cancers and one recurrence at a mean of 5.17 years posttransplant. Patients with skin cancer self-identified as Black (70%, p-value ≤ 0.001), male (70%, p-value ≤ 0.001), and kidney transplant recipients (70%, p-value ≤ 0.001), with a mean age of 58.20 years at transplant (p-value ≤ 0.001). Subjects with skin cancer were more likely to be former smokers (60%) and prescribed tacrolimus (p-value ≤ 0.001 each). Development of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (66, 75.86%) was most common, followed by basal cell carcinoma (17, 19.54%), and malignant melanoma (3, 3.45%). Skin cancer most often occurred on the face or scalp (60%, p-value = 0.027), though also developed in sun-protected sites (30%, p-value = 0.002). Verruca vulgaris was present in 10% of patients (p-value = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for skin cancer post-transplant differ in OTRs with higher Fitz types. Our results suggest that among OTRs who self-identified as Black, kidney recipients are at increased risk for skin cancer in non-sun-exposed regions. These cancers may be associated with human papillomavirus (HPV). Education is key for preventing morbidity and mortality secondary to skin cancer.

Interventions After First Post-Transplant Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Proposed Decision Framework

Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality after organ transplant. Many patients subsequently develop multiple CSCC following a first CSCC, and the risk of metastasis and death is significantly increased compared to the general population. Post-transplant CSCC represents a disease at the interface of dermatology and transplant medicine. Both systemic chemoprevention and modulation of immunosuppression are frequently employed in patients with multiple CSCC, yet there is little consensus on their use after first CSCC to reduce risk of subsequent tumors. While relatively few controlled trials have been undertaken, extrapolation of observational data suggests the most effective interventions may be at the time of first CSCC. We review the need for intervention after a first post-transplant CSCC and evidence for use of various approaches as secondary prevention, before discussing barriers preventing engagement with this approach and finally highlight areas for future research. Close collaboration between specialties to ensure prompt deployment of these interventions after a first CSCC may improve patient outcomes.

Genetic polymorphism in Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase chloride transport protein 6 (MTHFR CLCN6) gene is associated with keratinocyte skin cancer in a cohort of renal transplant recipients

Background

Renal transplant recipients (RTRs) are at increased risk of keratinocyte cancer (KC), especially cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC). Previous studies identified a genetic variant of the Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase (MTHFR) gene, C677T, which conferred a risk for diagnosis of cSCC in Irish RTRs.

Objective

We sought to find further genetic variation in MTHFR and overlap genes that may be associated with a diagnosis of KC in RTRs.

Methods

Genotyping of a combined RTR population (n = 821) from two centres, Ireland (n = 546) and the USA (n = 275), was performed. This included 290 RTRs with KC and 444 without. Eleven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the MTHFR gene and seven in the overlap gene MTHFR Chloride transport protein 6 (CLCN6) were evaluated and association explored by time to event analysis (from transplant to first KC) using Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Polymorphism at MTHFR CLCN6 (rs9651118) was significantly associated with KC in RTRs (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.17–1.91, p < 0.00061) and cSCC (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.14–2.34, p = 0.007). A separate SNP, MTHFR C677T, was also significantly associated with KC in the Irish population (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.05–1.63, p = 0.016), but not American RTRs.

Conclusions

We report the association of a SNP in the MTHFR overlap gene, CLCN6 and KC in a combined RTR population. While the exact function of CLCN6 is not known, it is proposed to be involved in folate availability. Future applications could include incorporation in a polygenic risk score for KC in RTRs to help identify those at increased risk beyond traditional risk factor assessment.

Nonallograft Complications of Lung Transplantation

Long-term exposure to immunosuppressive therapy may exacerbate pre-existing medical comorbidities or result in the development of new chronic medical conditions after lung transplantation. This article focuses on common nonallograft complications with the highest impact on short- and long-term outcomes after transplantation. These include diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, kidney disease (acute and chronic), and malignancy. We discuss evidence-based strategies for the prevention, diagnosis, and management of these nonallograft complications in this article.

Cohort and Nested Case-Control Study of Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients, by Medication

BACKGROUND

Knowledge is needed about squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) risk in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) using contemporary immunosuppressive regimens.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate risk of cSCC in relation to medications used by SOTRs.

METHODS

The cohort and nest case-control study included 3,308 SOTRs and 65,883 persons without transplantation during 2009-2019. Incident cSCC was identified from pathology data and medications from pharmacy data. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards analysis, with voriconazole examined as a time-dependent variable.

RESULTS

The annual incidence of cSCC was 1.69% in SOTRs and 0.30% in persons without transplantation. The adjusted HR of cSCC associated with lung transplant was 14.83 (CI 9.85-22.33) for lung and 6.53 to 10.69 for other organs. Risk in Latinx persons was higher than in other non-white groups. Among lung recipients, the HR was 1.14 for each month of voriconazole use (95% CI: 1.04-1.26). Azathioprine use for ≥7 months, relating to mycophenolate mofetil intolerance, was associated with 4.22-fold increased risk of cSCC (95% CI 1.90-9.40). Belatacept and other immunsuppressive medications were not associated with risk.

LIMITATIONS

The number of events was somewhat small.

CONCLUSIONS

Knowledge of risks and benefits in diverse patients can translate to care improvements.

Malignancies after pediatric solid organ transplantation

As life expectancy among pediatric solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) improves, the risk of comorbid conditions such as malignancy post-transplantation has also increased. SOTRs are at elevated risks of post-transplantation lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLDs), and skin and solid cancers. PTLDs typically occur early following transplantation, while skin and solid cancers frequently arise in young adulthood (25-40 years). By 30 years following transplantation, 26-41% of pediatric SOTRs have developed cancer. Different risk factors exist for PTLD, and skin and solid cancers, which are modified by cumulative immunosuppression, infections, transplanted organ, and the underlying disease process associated with initial organ failure (e.g., kidney failure). Optimal cancer treatment strategies depend on the specific cancer type, stage, and patient comorbidities. Immunosuppression reduction may be beneficial for certain cancers but must be considered against the risks of acute and chronic rejection and allograft loss. Lifestyle counseling regarding smoking avoidance and sun protection, as well as human papillomavirus vaccination, is an important aspect of cancer prevention. Currently, no cancer screening guidelines exist specifically for pediatric SOTRs. Adult population screening guidelines have not been validated in transplant populations. Therefore, an individualized approach should be taken to cancer screening for pediatric SOTRs, accounting for other cancer risk factors.

Risk Prediction Model for Basal Cell Carcinoma in Cardiac Allograft Recipients

BACKGROUND

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the second most common skin cancers in posttransplant patients. Long-term immunosuppression predisposes the patients to higher risk. This study was undertaken to develop a risk prediction model using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Heart transplant recipients (2000~2015) from the UNOS database were analyzed. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to screen the predictors associated with the development of BCC. Stepwise forward selection with Akaike information criterion was done to obtain the multivariate model. Area under the curve was derived from the receiver operating characteristics curve to assess the quality of the prediction model. A risk scoring system was developed to stratify patients into different risk groups, and the occurrence rates of posttransplant BCC among different groups were compared.

RESULTS

There were 24,374 patients who received heart transplantation within this study period, and 1211 recipients have been reported with BCC. The multivariate model provides area under the curves at 5, 8, and 10 years posttransplant of 0.77, 0.76, and 0.76, respectively, in the derivation set and 0.75, 0.74, and 0.74, respectively, in the validation set. The predicted and observed probabilities of developing BCC in 5 years agree well across different risk groups. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated, which demonstrate significant differences between subjects in different risk groups.

CONCLUSION

A risk prediction model has been generated for the first time for BCC with a c-statistic of ≥0.74 in both derivation and validation sets, making it a good tool for risk stratification.

Risk prediction model for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in adult cardiac allograft recipients

BACKGROUND

Heart transplant recipients are at higher risk of developing skin cancer than the general population due to the long-term immunosuppression treatment. Cancer has been reported as one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality for patients after heart transplantation. Among different types of skin cancers, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is the most common one, which requires timely screening and better management.

AIM

To identify risk factors and predict the incidence of cSCC for heart transplant recipients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed adult heart transplant recipients between 2000 and 2015 extracted from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry. The whole dataset was randomly divided into a derivation set (80%) and a validation set (20%). Uni- and multivariate Cox regression were done to identify significant risk factors associated with the development of cSCC. Receiver operating charac-teristics curves were generated and area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the accuracy of the prediction model. Based on the selected risk factors, a risk scoring system was developed to stratify patients into different risk groups. A cumulative cSCC-free survival curve was generated using the Kaplan-Meier method for each group, and the log-rank test was done to compare the inter-group cSCC rates.

RESULTS

There were 23736 heart-transplant recipients during the study period, and 1827 of them have been reported with cSCC. Significant predictors of post-transplant cSCC were older age, male sex, white race, recipient and donor human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatch level, malignancy at listing, diagnosis with restrictive myopathy or hypertrophic myopathy, heart re-transplant, and induction therapy with OKT3 or daclizumab. The multivariate model was used to predict the 5-, 8- and 10-year incidence of cSCC and respectively provided AUC of 0.79, 0.78 and 0.77 in the derivation set and 0.80, 0.78 and 0.77 in the validation set. The risk scoring system assigned each patient with a risk score within the range of 0-11, based on which they were stratified into 4 different risk groups. The predicted and observed 5-year probability of developing cSCC match well among different risk groups. In addition, the log-rank test indicated significantly different cSCC-free survival across different groups.

CONCLUSION

A risk prediction model for cSCC among heart-transplant recipients has been generated for the first time. It offers a c-statistic of ≥ 0.77 in both derivation and validation sets.

Low participation in preventative health measures in a cohort of liver transplant recipients: A cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite high rates of infection and malignancy post-solid organ transplant, there are little data on patient participation in preventative health care.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of post-liver transplant patients to evaluate insight into transplant-associated infective and neoplastic risks, and receipt of vaccination and cancer surveillance in accordance with Australian and local institution-specific guidelines. Descriptive analyses were used to assess characteristics potentially influencing adherence.

RESULTS

Of 219 patients surveyed, adherence to bowel cancer surveillance was significantly reduced in those distant from transplantation compared with those recently transplanted (95.8% if transplanted ≤ 5 years ago vs. 68.3% if transplanted > 5 years ago, P < .001). Skin cancer surveillance participation with annual physician-directed examination was low (42.9%), particularly in younger patients (29.5% in < 50yo vs. 48.1% in ≥ 50yo, P = .01), who were also less adherent to vaccination recommendations (72.1% in < 50yo vs. 87.3% in ≥ 50yo, P = .008).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first analysis of preventative healthcare participation in a cohort of Australian liver transplant recipients, revealing concerning adherence to bowel and skin cancer surveillance recommendations. Major interventions to avoid preventable disease in this high-risk cohort are warranted.

Risk Factors for Keratinocyte Carcinoma in Recipients of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplants

Importance

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (alloHCT) is known to increase the risk for keratinocyte carcinoma. The extent to which host characteristics, including pigmentary phenotype and UV radiation exposure, contribute is unknown.

Objective

To identify and validate independent risk factors for keratinocyte carcinoma after alloHCT, including those associated with the transplant and the host.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study analyzed a consecutive sample of alloHCT recipients from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2014, at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota (n = 872) and University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Cleveland, Ohio (n = 147). Participants from the Mayo Clinic were randomly allocated (2:1) into discovery (n = 581) and validation (n = 291) cohorts. Time to first keratinocyte carcinoma and information about transplant- and host-associated risk factors were extracted. A multivariate keratinocyte carcinoma risk model was created using a stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression model with P ≤ .05 for entry that incorporated all covariates that were individually statistically significant at α = 0.05 in the discovery cohort. The risk model was first internally validated using the Mayo Clinic validation cohort and then externally validated using the independent cohort of alloHCT recipients at University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center. Data were analyzed from March 13, 2018, to June 12, 2019.

Exposures

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was time to development of the first cutaneous keratinocyte carcinoma after alloHCT; secondary outcome, time to development of the first individual basal and/or squamous cell carcinoma after alloHCT.

Results

Of the 872 alloHCT recipients identified in the Mayo Clinic cohort (520 men [59.6%]; mean [SD] age, 48.3 [12.6] years), 95 (10.9%) developed keratinocyte carcinoma after alloHCT during 5349 person-years of follow-up. Of the 147 alloHCT recipients in the exernal validation cohort (86 men [58.5%]; mean [SD] age, 47.9 [17.5] years), 18 (12.2%) developed keratinocyte carcinoma after alloHCT in 880 person-years of follow up. Risk factors independently associated with keratinocyte carcinoma after alloHCT included age (hazard ratio [HR] per 10 years, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.21-2.42), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (HR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.20-5.09), clinically photodamaged skin (HR, 3.47; 95% CI, 1.87-6.41), and history of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.41-5.91). Harrell concordance statistics were 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72-0.90) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.74-0.98) for internal and external validation of the keratinocyte carcinoma risk model, respectively.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found validated independent risk factors for keratinocyte carcinoma after alloHCT that are enriched with host- compared with transplant-associated risk factors. These findings highlight the importance of assessing host-associated risk factors for keratinocyte carcinoma in patients eligible for alloHCT. Future studies should examine whether keratinocyte carcinoma risk stratification before alloHCT may inform long-term surveillance strategies.

Post-transplant malignancies in pediatric organ transplant recipients

The majority of cancer diagnoses in pediatric solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are post-transplantation lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLD) or skin cancers. However, pediatric SOTRs are also at significantly elevated risk for multiple other solid and hematological cancers. The risks of specific cancers vary by transplanted organ, underlying disease, and immunosuppression factors. More than one-quarter of pediatric SOTRs develop cancer within 30 years of transplantation and their risk of solid cancer is 14 times greater than the general population. Pediatric SOTRs are at significantly higher risk of cancer-associated death. Improving patient survival among pediatric SOTRs puts them at risk of adult epithelial cancers associated with environmental carcinogenic exposures. Vaccination against oncogenic viruses and avoidance of excessive immunosuppression may reduce the risk of solid cancers following transplantation. Patient and family education regarding photoprotection is an essential component of skin cancer prevention. There is significant variability in cancer screening recommendations for SOTRs and general population approaches are typically not validated for transplant populations. An individualized approach to cancer screening should be developed based on estimated cancer risk, patient life expectancy, and screening test performance.