A meta-analysis of cardiac electrophysiology computational models

Optimization framework for patient-specific modeling under uncertainty

Estimating a patient-specific computational model's parameters relies on data that is often unreliable and ill-suited for a deterministic approach. We develop an optimization-based uncertainty quantification framework for probabilistic model tuning that discovers model inputs distributions that generate target output distributions. Probabilistic sampling is performed using a surrogate model for computational efficiency, and a general distribution parameterization is used to describe each input. The approach is tested on seven patient-specific modeling examples using CircAdapt, a cardiovascular circulatory model. Six examples are synthetic, aiming to match the output distributions generated using known reference input data distributions, while the seventh example uses real-world patient data for the output distributions. Our results demonstrate the accurate reproduction of the target output distributions, with a correct recreation of the reference inputs for the six synthetic examples. Our proposed approach is suitable for determining the parameter distributions of patient-specific models with uncertain data and can be used to gain insights into the sensitivity of the model parameters to the measured data.

Models of the cardiac L-type calcium current: A quantitative review

The L-type calcium current (I CaL ) plays a critical role in cardiac electrophysiology, and models ofI CaL are vital tools to predict arrhythmogenicity of drugs and mutations. Five decades of measuring and modelingI CaL have resulted in several competing theories (encoded in mathematical equations). However, the introduction of new models has not typically been accompanied by a data-driven critical comparison with previous work, so that it is unclear which model is best suited for any particular application. In this review, we describe and compare 73 published mammalianI CaL models and use simulated experiments to show that there is a large variability in their predictions, which is not substantially diminished when grouping by species or other categories. We provide model code for 60 models, list major data sources, and discuss experimental and modeling work that will be required to reduce this huge list of competing theories and ultimately develop a community consensus model ofI CaL . This article is categorized under: Cardiovascular Diseases > Computational Models Cardiovascular Diseases > Molecular and Cellular Physiology.

Computational cardiac physiology for new modelers: Origins, foundations, and future

Mathematical models of the cardiovascular system have come a long way since they were first introduced in the early 19th century. Driven by a rapid development of experimental techniques, numerical methods, and computer hardware, detailed models that describe physical scales from the molecular level up to organs and organ systems have been derived and used for physiological research. Mathematical and computational models can be seen as condensed and quantitative formulations of extensive physiological knowledge and are used for formulating and testing hypotheses, interpreting and directing experimental research, and have contributed substantially to our understanding of cardiovascular physiology. However, in spite of the strengths of mathematics to precisely describe complex relationships and the obvious need for the mathematical and computational models to be informed by experimental data, there still exist considerable barriers between experimental and computational physiological research. In this review, we present a historical overview of the development of mathematical and computational models in cardiovascular physiology, including the current state of the art. We further argue why a tighter integration is needed between experimental and computational scientists in physiology, and point out important obstacles and challenges that must be overcome in order to fully realize the synergy of experimental and computational physiological research.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Perspective on the Importance of Parameter Identifiability

There is an inherent tension in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) between the need to incorporate mathematical descriptions of complex physiology and drug targets with the necessity of developing robust, predictive and well-constrained models. In addition to this, there is no “gold standard” for model development and assessment in QSP. Moreover, there can be confusion over terminology such as model and parameter identifiability; complex and simple models; virtual populations; and other concepts, which leads to potential miscommunication and misapplication of methodologies within modeling communities, both the QSP community and related disciplines. This perspective article highlights the pros and cons of using simple (often identifiable) vs. complex (more physiologically detailed but often non-identifiable) models, as well as aspects of parameter identifiability, sensitivity and inference methodologies for model development and analysis. The paper distills the central themes of the issue of identifiability and optimal model size and discusses open challenges.

POD-Enhanced Deep Learning-Based Reduced Order Models for the Real-Time Simulation of Cardiac Electrophysiology in the Left Atrium

The numerical simulation of multiple scenarios easily becomes computationally prohibitive for cardiac electrophysiology (EP) problems if relying on usual high-fidelity, full order models (FOMs). Likewise, the use of traditional reduced order models (ROMs) for parametrized PDEs to speed up the solution of the aforementioned problems can be problematic. This is primarily due to the strong variability characterizing the solution set and to the nonlinear nature of the input-output maps that we intend to reconstruct numerically. To enhance ROM efficiency, we proposed a new generation of non-intrusive, nonlinear ROMs, based on deep learning (DL) algorithms, such as convolutional, feedforward, and autoencoder neural networks. In the proposed DL-ROM, both the nonlinear solution manifold and the nonlinear reduced dynamics used to model the system evolution on that manifold can be learnt in a non-intrusive way thanks to DL algorithms trained on a set of FOM snapshots. DL-ROMs were shown to be able to accurately capture complex front propagation processes, both in physiological and pathological cardiac EP, very rapidly once neural networks were trained, however, at the expense of huge training costs. In this study, we show that performing a prior dimensionality reduction on FOM snapshots through randomized proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) enables to speed up training times and to decrease networks complexity. Accuracy and efficiency of this strategy, which we refer to as POD-DL-ROM, are assessed in the context of cardiac EP on an idealized left atrium (LA) geometry and considering snapshots arising from a NURBS (non-uniform rational B-splines)-based isogeometric analysis (IGA) discretization. Once the ROMs have been trained, POD-DL-ROMs can efficiently solve both physiological and pathological cardiac EP problems, for any new scenario, in real-time, even in extremely challenging contexts such as those featuring circuit re-entries, that are among the factors triggering cardiac arrhythmias.

Characterization of the Electrophysiologic Remodeling of Patients With Ischemic Cardiomyopathy by Clinical Measurements and Computer Simulations Coupled With Machine Learning

Rationale

Patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICMP) are at high risk for malignant arrhythmias, largely due to electrophysiological remodeling of the non-infarcted myocardium. The electrophysiological properties of the non-infarcted myocardium of patients with ICMP remain largely unknown.

Objectives

To assess the pro-arrhythmic behavior of non-infarcted myocardium in ICMP patients and couple computational simulations with machine learning to establish a methodology for the development of disease-specific action potential models based on clinically measured action potential duration restitution (APDR) data.

Methods and Results

We enrolled 22 patients undergoing left-sided ablation (10 ICMP) and compared APDRs between ICMP and structurally normal left ventricles (SNLVs). APDRs were clinically assessed with a decremental pacing protocol. Using genetic algorithms (GAs), we constructed populations of action potential models that incorporate the cohort-specific APDRs. The variability in the populations of ICMP and SNLV models was captured by clustering models based on their similarity using unsupervised machine learning. The pro-arrhythmic potential of ICMP and SNLV models was assessed in cell- and tissue-level simulations. Clinical measurements established that ICMP patients have a steeper APDR slope compared to SNLV (by 38%, p < 0.01). In cell-level simulations, APD alternans were induced in ICMP models at a longer cycle length compared to SNLV models (385–400 vs 355 ms). In tissue-level simulations, ICMP models were more susceptible for sustained functional re-entry compared to SNLV models.

Conclusion

Myocardial remodeling in ICMP patients is manifested as a steeper APDR compared to SNLV, which underlies the greater arrhythmogenic propensity in these patients, as demonstrated by cell- and tissue-level simulations using action potential models developed by GAs from clinical measurements. The methodology presented here captures the uncertainty inherent to GAs model development and provides a blueprint for use in future studies aimed at evaluating electrophysiological remodeling resulting from other cardiac diseases.

Calibration of ionic and cellular cardiac electrophysiology models

Cardiac electrophysiology models are among the most mature and well-studied mathematical models of biological systems. This maturity is bringing new challenges as models are being used increasingly to make quantitative rather than qualitative predictions. As such, calibrating the parameters within ion current and action potential (AP) models to experimental data sets is a crucial step in constructing a predictive model. This review highlights some of the fundamental concepts in cardiac model calibration and is intended to be readily understood by computational and mathematical modelers working in other fields of biology. We discuss the classic and latest approaches to calibration in the electrophysiology field, at both the ion channel and cellular AP scales. We end with a discussion of the many challenges that work to date has raised and the need for reproducible descriptions of the calibration process to enable models to be recalibrated to new data sets and built upon for new studies. This article is categorized under: Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods Physiology > Mammalian Physiology in Health and Disease Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Cellular Models.

Computational translation of drug effects from animal experiments to human ventricular myocytes

Using animal cells and tissues as precise measuring devices for developing new drugs presents a long-standing challenge for the pharmaceutical industry. Despite the very significant resources that continue to be dedicated to animal testing of new compounds, only qualitative results can be obtained. This often results in both false positives and false negatives. Here, we show how the effect of drugs applied to animal ventricular myocytes can be translated, quantitatively, to estimate a number of different effects of the same drug on human cardiomyocytes. We illustrate and validate our methodology by translating, from animal to human, the effect of dofetilide applied to dog cardiomyocytes, the effect of E-4031 applied to zebrafish cardiomyocytes, and, finally, the effect of sotalol applied to rabbit cardiomyocytes. In all cases, the accuracy of our quantitative estimates are demonstrated. Our computations reveal that, in principle, electrophysiological data from testing using animal ventricular myocytes, can give precise, quantitative estimates of the effect of new compounds on human cardiomyocytes.

Reducing complexity and unidentifiability when modelling human atrial cells

Mathematical models of a cellular action potential (AP) in cardiac modelling have become increasingly complex, particularly in gating kinetics, which control the opening and closing of individual ion channel currents. As cardiac models advance towards use in personalized medicine to inform clinical decision-making, it is critical to understand the uncertainty hidden in parameter estimates from their calibration to experimental data. This study applies approximate Bayesian computation to re-calibrate the gating kinetics of four ion channels in two existing human atrial cell models to their original datasets, providing a measure of uncertainty and indication of potential issues with selecting a single unique value given the available experimental data. Two approaches are investigated to reduce the uncertainty present: re-calibrating the models to a more complete dataset and using a less complex formulation with fewer parameters to constrain. The re-calibrated models are inserted back into the full cell model to study the overall effect on the AP. The use of more complete datasets does not eliminate uncertainty present in parameter estimates. The less complex model, particularly for the fast sodium current, gave a better fit to experimental data alongside lower parameter uncertainty and improved computational speed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

An audit of uncertainty in multi-scale cardiac electrophysiology models

Models of electrical activation and recovery in cardiac cells and tissue have become valuable research tools, and are beginning to be used in safety-critical applications including guidance for clinical procedures and for drug safety assessment. As a consequence, there is an urgent need for a more detailed and quantitative understanding of the ways that uncertainty and variability influence model predictions. In this paper, we review the sources of uncertainty in these models at different spatial scales, discuss how uncertainties are communicated across scales, and begin to assess their relative importance. We conclude by highlighting important challenges that continue to face the cardiac modelling community, identifying open questions, and making recommendations for future studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Reducing complexity and unidentifiability when modelling human atrial cells

Mathematical models of a cellular action potential (AP) in cardiac modelling have become increasingly complex, particularly in gating kinetics, which control the opening and closing of individual ion channel currents. As cardiac models advance towards use in personalized medicine to inform clinical decision-making, it is critical to understand the uncertainty hidden in parameter estimates from their calibration to experimental data. This study applies approximate Bayesian computation to re-calibrate the gating kinetics of four ion channels in two existing human atrial cell models to their original datasets, providing a measure of uncertainty and indication of potential issues with selecting a single unique value given the available experimental data. Two approaches are investigated to reduce the uncertainty present: re-calibrating the models to a more complete dataset and using a less complex formulation with fewer parameters to constrain. The re-calibrated models are inserted back into the full cell model to study the overall effect on the AP. The use of more complete datasets does not eliminate uncertainty present in parameter estimates. The less complex model, particularly for the fast sodium current, gave a better fit to experimental data alongside lower parameter uncertainty and improved computational speed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Genetic algorithm-based personalized models of human cardiac action potential

We present a novel modification of genetic algorithm (GA) which determines personalized parameters of cardiomyocyte electrophysiology model based on set of experimental human action potential (AP) recorded at different heart rates. In order to find the steady state solution, the optimized algorithm performs simultaneous search in the parametric and slow variables spaces. We demonstrate that several GA modifications are required for effective convergence. Firstly, we used Cauchy mutation along a random direction in the parametric space. Secondly, relatively large number of elite organisms (6-10% of the population passed on to new generation) was required for effective convergence. Test runs with synthetic AP as input data indicate that algorithm error is low for high amplitude ionic currents (1.6±1.6% for IKr, 3.2±3.5% for IK1, 3.9±3.5% for INa, 8.2±6.3% for ICaL). Experimental signal-to-noise ratio above 28 dB was required for high quality GA performance. GA was validated against optical mapping recordings of human ventricular AP and mRNA expression profile of donor hearts. In particular, GA output parameters were rescaled proportionally to mRNA levels ratio between patients. We have demonstrated that mRNA-based models predict the AP waveform dependence on heart rate with high precision. The latter also provides a novel technique of model personalization that makes it possible to map gene expression profile to cardiac function.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Two Human Atrial Cardiac Cell Models Using Gaussian Process Emulators

Biophysically detailed cardiac cell models reconstruct the action potential and calcium dynamics of cardiac myocytes. They aim to capture the biophysics of current flow through ion channels, pumps, and exchangers in the cell membrane, and are highly detailed. However, the relationship between model parameters and model outputs is difficult to establish because the models are both complex and non-linear. The consequences of uncertainty and variability in model parameters are therefore difficult to determine without undertaking large numbers of model evaluations. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate how sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using Gaussian process emulators can be used for a systematic and quantitive analysis of biophysically detailed cardiac cell models. We selected the Courtemanche and Maleckar models of the human atrial action potential for analysis because these models describe a similar set of currents, with different formulations. In our approach Gaussian processes emulate the main features of the action potential and calcium transient. The emulators were trained with a set of design data comprising samples from parameter space and corresponding model outputs, initially obtained from 300 model evaluations. Variance based sensitivity indices were calculated using the emulators, and first order and total effect indices were calculated for each combination of parameter and output. The differences between the first order and total effect indices indicated that the effect of interactions between parameters was small. A second set of emulators were then trained using a new set of design data with a subset of the model parameters with a sensitivity index of more than 0.1 (10%). This second stage analysis enabled comparison of mechanisms in the two models. The second stage sensitivity indices enabled the relationship between the L-type Ca 2+ current and the action potential plateau to be quantified in each model. Our quantitative analysis predicted that changes in maximum conductance of the ultra-rapid K + channel I Kur would have opposite effects on action potential duration in the two models, and this prediction was confirmed by additional simulations. This study has demonstrated that Gaussian process emulators are an effective tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of biophysically detailed cardiac cell models.

Optimization Framework for Patient-Specific Cardiac Modeling

PURPOSE

Patient-specific models of the heart can be used to improve the diagnosis of cardiac diseases, but practical application of these models can be impeded by the computational costs and numerical uncertainties of fitting mechanistic models to clinical measurements from individual patients. Reliable and efficient tuning of these models within clinically appropriate error bounds is a requirement for practical deployment in the time-constrained environment of the clinic.

METHODS

We developed an optimization framework to tune parameters of patient-specific mechanistic models using routinely-acquired non-invasive patient data more efficiently than manual methods. We employ a hybrid particle swarm and pattern search optimization algorithm, but the framework can be readily adapted to use other optimization algorithms.

RESULTS

We apply the proposed framework to tune full-cycle lumped parameter circulatory models using clinical data. We show that our framework can be easily adapted to optimize cross-species models by tuning the parameters of the same circulation model to four canine subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

This work will facilitate the use of biomechanics and circulatory cardiac models in both clinical and research environments by ameliorating the tedious process of manually fitting the parameters.

Slow Delayed Rectifier Current Protects Ventricular Myocytes From Arrhythmic Dynamics Across Multiple Species: A Computational Study

BACKGROUND

The slow and rapid delayed rectifier K⁺ currents (I_Ks and I_Kr, respectively) are responsible for repolarizing the ventricular action potential (AP) and preventing abnormally long APs that may lead to arrhythmias. Although differences in biophysical properties of the 2 currents have been carefully documented, the respective physiological roles of I_Kr and I_Ks are less established. In this study, we sought to understand the individual roles of these currents and quantify how effectively each stabilizes the AP and protects cells against arrhythmias across multiple species.

METHODS

We compared 10 mathematical models describing ventricular myocytes from human, rabbit, dog, and guinea pig. We examined variability within heterogeneous cell populations, tested the susceptibility of cells to proarrhythmic behavior, and studied how I_Ks and I_Kr responded to changes in the AP.

RESULTS

We found that (1) models with higher baseline I_Ks exhibited less cell-to-cell variability in AP duration; (2) models with higher baseline I_Ks were less susceptible to early afterdepolarizations induced by depolarizing perturbations; (3) as AP duration is lengthened, I_Ks increases more profoundly than I_Kr, thereby providing negative feedback that resists excessive AP prolongation; and (4) the increase in I_Ks that occurs during β-adrenergic stimulation is critical for protecting cardiac myocytes from early afterdepolarizations under these conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Slow delayed rectifier current is uniformly protective across a variety of cell types. These results suggest that I_Ks enhancement could potentially be an effective antiarrhythmic strategy.

Rapid Characterization of hERG Channel Kinetics II: Temperature Dependence

Ion channel behavior can depend strongly on temperature, with faster kinetics at physiological temperatures leading to considerable changes in currents relative to room temperature. These temperature-dependent changes in voltage-dependent ion channel kinetics (rates of opening, closing, inactivating, and recovery) are commonly represented with Q₁₀ coefficients or an Eyring relationship. In this article, we assess the validity of these representations by characterizing channel kinetics at multiple temperatures. We focus on the human Ether-à-go-go-Related Gene (hERG) channel, which is important in drug safety assessment and commonly screened at room temperature so that results require extrapolation to physiological temperature. In Part I of this study, we established a reliable method for high-throughput characterization of hERG1a (Kv11.1) kinetics, using a 15-second information-rich optimized protocol. In this Part II, we use this protocol to study the temperature dependence of hERG kinetics using Chinese hamster ovary cells overexpressing hERG1a on the Nanion SyncroPatch 384PE, a 384-well automated patch-clamp platform, with temperature control. We characterize the temperature dependence of hERG gating by fitting the parameters of a mathematical model of hERG kinetics to data obtained at five distinct temperatures between 25 and 37°C and validate the models using different protocols. Our models reveal that activation is far more temperature sensitive than inactivation, and we observe that the temperature dependency of the kinetic parameters is not represented well by Q₁₀ coefficients; it broadly follows a generalized, but not the standardly-used, Eyring relationship. We also demonstrate that experimental estimations of Q₁₀ coefficients are protocol dependent. Our results show that a direct fit using our 15-s protocol best represents hERG kinetics at any given temperature and suggests that using the Generalized Eyring theory is preferable if no experimental data are available to derive model parameters at a given temperature.

Detecting undetectables: Can conductances of action potential models be changed without appreciable change in the transmembrane potential?

Mathematical models describing the dynamics of the cardiac action potential are of great value for understanding how changes to the system can disrupt the normal electrical activity of cells and tissue in the heart. However, to represent specific data, these models must be parameterized, and adjustment of the maximum conductances of the individual contributing ionic currents is a commonly used method. Here, we present a method for investigating the uniqueness of such resulting parameterizations. Our key question is: Can the maximum conductances of a model be changed without giving any appreciable changes in the action potential? If so, the model parameters are not unique and this poses a major problem in using the models to identify changes in parameters from data, for instance, to evaluate potential drug effects. We propose a method for evaluating this uniqueness, founded on the singular value decomposition of a matrix consisting of the individual ionic currents. Small singular values of this matrix signify lack of parameter uniqueness and we show that the conclusion from linear analysis of the matrix carries over to provide insight into the uniqueness of the parameters in the nonlinear case. Using numerical experiments, we quantify the identifiability of the maximum conductances of well-known models of the cardiac action potential. Furthermore, we show how the identifiability depends on the time step used in the observation of the currents, how the application of drugs may change identifiability, and, finally, how the stimulation protocol can be used to improve the identifiability of a model.

Resonant model-A new paradigm for modeling an action potential of biological cells

Organ level simulation of bioelectric behavior in the body benefits from flexible and efficient models of cellular membrane potential. These computational organ and cell models can be used to study the impact of pharmaceutical drugs, test hypotheses, assess risk and for closed-loop validation of medical devices. To move closer to the real-time requirements of this modeling a new flexible Fourier based general membrane potential model, called as a Resonant model, is developed that is computationally inexpensive. The new model accurately reproduces non-linear potential morphologies for a variety of cell types. Specifically, the method is used to model human and rabbit sinoatrial node, human ventricular myocyte and squid giant axon electrophysiology. The Resonant models are validated with experimental data and with other published models. Dynamic changes in biological conditions are modeled with changing model coefficients and this approach enables ionic channel alterations to be captured. The Resonant model is used to simulate entrainment between competing sinoatrial node cells. These models can be easily implemented in low-cost digital hardware and an alternative, resource-efficient implementations of sine and cosine functions are presented and it is shown that a Fourier term is produced with two additions and a binary shift.

Computational models in cardiology

The treatment of individual patients in cardiology practice increasingly relies on advanced imaging, genetic screening and devices. As the amount of imaging and other diagnostic data increases, paralleled by the greater capacity to personalize treatment, the difficulty of using the full array of measurements of a patient to determine an optimal treatment seems also to be paradoxically increasing. Computational models are progressively addressing this issue by providing a common framework for integrating multiple data sets from individual patients. These models, which are based on physiology and physics rather than on population statistics, enable computational simulations to reveal diagnostic information that would have otherwise remained concealed and to predict treatment outcomes for individual patients. The inherent need for patient-specific models in cardiology is clear and is driving the rapid development of tools and techniques for creating personalized methods to guide pharmaceutical therapy, deployment of devices and surgical interventions.

Rethinking multiscale cardiac electrophysiology with machine learning and predictive modelling

We review some of the latest approaches to analysing cardiac electrophysiology data using machine learning and predictive modelling. Cardiac arrhythmias, particularly atrial fibrillation, are a major global healthcare challenge. Treatment is often through catheter ablation, which involves the targeted localised destruction of regions of the myocardium responsible for initiating or perpetuating the arrhythmia. Ablation targets are either anatomically defined, or identified based on their functional properties as determined through the analysis of contact intracardiac electrograms acquired with increasing spatial density by modern electroanatomic mapping systems. While numerous quantitative approaches have been investigated over the past decades for identifying these critical curative sites, few have provided a reliable and reproducible advance in success rates. Machine learning techniques, including recent deep-learning approaches, offer a potential route to gaining new insight from this wealth of highly complex spatio-temporal information that existing methods struggle to analyse. Coupled with predictive modelling, these techniques offer exciting opportunities to advance the field and produce more accurate diagnoses and robust personalised treatment. We outline some of these methods and illustrate their use in making predictions from the contact electrogram and augmenting predictive modelling tools, both by more rapidly predicting future states of the system and by inferring the parameters of these models from experimental observations.

Fitting two human atrial cell models to experimental data using Bayesian history matching

Cardiac cell models are potentially valuable tools for applications such as quantitative safety pharmacology, but have many parameters. Action potentials in real cardiac cells also vary from beat to beat, and from one cell to another. Calibrating cardiac cell models to experimental observations is difficult, because the parameter space is large and high-dimensional. In this study we have demonstrated the use of history matching to calibrate the maximum conductance of ion channels and exchangers in two detailed models of the human atrial action potential against measurements of action potential biomarkers. History matching is an approach developed in other modelling communities, based on constructing fast-running Gaussian process emulators of the model. Emulators were constructed from a small number of model runs (around 10²), and then run many times (>10⁶) at low computational cost, each time with a different set of model parameters. Emulator outputs were compared with experimental biomarkers using an implausibility measure, which took into account experimental variance as well as emulator variance. By repeating this process, the region of non-implausible parameter space was iteratively reduced. Both cardiac cell models were successfully calibrated to experimental datasets, resulting in sets of parameters that could be sampled to produce variable action potentials. However, model parameters did not occupy a small range of values. Instead, the history matching process exposed inputs that can co-vary across a wide range and still be consistent with a particular biomarker. We also found correlations between some biomarkers, indicating a need for better descriptors of action potential shape.

A Heart for Diversity: Simulating Variability in Cardiac Arrhythmia Research

In cardiac electrophysiology, there exist many sources of inter- and intra-personal variability. These include variability in conditions and environment, and genotypic and molecular diversity, including differences in expression and behavior of ion channels and transporters, which lead to phenotypic diversity (e.g., variable integrated responses at the cell, tissue, and organ levels). These variabilities play an important role in progression of heart disease and arrhythmia syndromes and outcomes of therapeutic interventions. Yet, the traditional in silico framework for investigating cardiac arrhythmias is built upon a parameter/property-averaging approach that typically overlooks the physiological diversity. Inspired by work done in genetics and neuroscience, new modeling frameworks of cardiac electrophysiology have been recently developed that take advantage of modern computational capabilities and approaches, and account for the variance in the biological data they are intended to illuminate. In this review, we outline the recent advances in statistical and computational techniques that take into account physiological variability, and move beyond the traditional cardiac model-building scheme that involves averaging over samples from many individuals in the construction of a highly tuned composite model. We discuss how these advanced methods have harnessed the power of big (simulated) data to study the mechanisms of cardiac arrhythmias, with a special emphasis on atrial fibrillation, and improve the assessment of proarrhythmic risk and drug response. The challenges of using in silico approaches with variability are also addressed and future directions are proposed.

Reproducible model development in the cardiac electrophysiology Web Lab

The modelling of the electrophysiology of cardiac cells is one of the most mature areas of systems biology. This extended concentration of research effort brings with it new challenges, foremost among which is that of choosing which of these models is most suitable for addressing a particular scientific question. In a previous paper, we presented our initial work in developing an online resource for the characterisation and comparison of electrophysiological cell models in a wide range of experimental scenarios. In that work, we described how we had developed a novel protocol language that allowed us to separate the details of the mathematical model (the majority of cardiac cell models take the form of ordinary differential equations) from the experimental protocol being simulated. We developed a fully-open online repository (which we termed the Cardiac Electrophysiology Web Lab) which allows users to store and compare the results of applying the same experimental protocol to competing models. In the current paper we describe the most recent and planned extensions of this work, focused on supporting the process of model building from experimental data. We outline the necessary work to develop a machine-readable language to describe the process of inferring parameters from wet lab datasets, and illustrate our approach through a detailed example of fitting a model of the hERG channel using experimental data. We conclude by discussing the future challenges in making further progress in this domain towards our goal of facilitating a fully reproducible approach to the development of cardiac cell models.

Comparing two sequential Monte Carlo samplers for exact and approximate Bayesian inference on biological models

Bayesian methods are advantageous for biological modelling studies due to their ability to quantify and characterize posterior variability in model parameters. When Bayesian methods cannot be applied, due either to non-determinism in the model or limitations on system observability, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to similar effect, despite producing inflated estimates of the true posterior variance. Owing to generally differing application domains, there are few studies comparing Bayesian and ABC methods, and thus there is little understanding of the properties and magnitude of this uncertainty inflation. To address this problem, we present two popular strategies for ABC sampling that we have adapted to perform exact Bayesian inference, and compare them on several model problems. We find that one sampler was impractical for exact inference due to its sensitivity to a key normalizing constant, and additionally highlight sensitivities of both samplers to various algorithmic parameters and model conditions. We conclude with a study of the O'Hara-Rudy cardiac action potential model to quantify the uncertainty amplification resulting from employing ABC using a set of clinically relevant biomarkers. We hope that this work serves to guide the implementation and comparative assessment of Bayesian and ABC sampling techniques in biological models.

Utilizing postmortem drug concentrations in mechanistic modeling and simulation of cardiac effects: a proof of concept study with methadone

Methadone-related poisoning has been found to be the leading and increasing cause of death among intoxication cases in several countries. Aside from respiratory depression, methadone is known to cause QT-prolongation, which may lead to sudden cardiac death. Concentrations in heart tissue should be more accurate for estimating cardiotoxic effects. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the effect of methadone on the QT-interval could be simulated and whether the concentrations in heart tissues allowed for better prediction of the Bazett corrected QT-interval (QTcB). A predictive performance study was conducted using the simulation platform Cardiac Safety Simulator to mimic five literature studies using their described study conditions. Both free and total plasma and heart concentrations were investigated using two different in silico models: the O'Hara-Rudy (ORD) model and the 10 Tusscher (TNNP) model. The results showed that the QTcB of methadone was best predicted either with total plasma using the TNNP model or with free plasma using the ORD model. The ORD model was highly sensitive to the total heart concentrations, resulting in overprediction of the QTcB. The TNNP model also overpredicted the QTcB, but to a lesser degree than the ORD model. Furthermore, due to a low baseline QTcB, the ORD model underpredicted the QTcB for both the free plasma and free heart concentrations. In conclusion, it is possible to simulate the cardiac effects of methadone, yet several elements influence the approach uncertainty including but not limited to biophysically details model of cardiac electrophysiology, exposure data, and input parameters.

Electrophysiological properties of computational human ventricular cell action potential models under acute ischemic conditions

Acute myocardial ischemia is one of the main causes of sudden cardiac death. The mechanisms have been investigated primarily in experimental and computational studies using different animal species, but human studies remain scarce. In this study, we assess the ability of four human ventricular action potential models (ten Tusscher and Panfilov, 2006; Grandi et al., 2010; Carro et al., 2011; O'Hara et al., 2011) to simulate key electrophysiological consequences of acute myocardial ischemia in single cell and tissue simulations. We specifically focus on evaluating the effect of extracellular potassium concentration and activation of the ATP-sensitive inward-rectifying potassium current on action potential duration, post-repolarization refractoriness, and conduction velocity, as the most critical factors in determining reentry vulnerability during ischemia. Our results show that the Grandi and O'Hara models required modifications to reproduce expected ischemic changes, specifically modifying the intracellular potassium concentration in the Grandi model and the sodium current in the O'Hara model. With these modifications, the four human ventricular cell AP models analyzed in this study reproduce the electrophysiological alterations in repolarization, refractoriness, and conduction velocity caused by acute myocardial ischemia. However, quantitative differences are observed between the models and overall, the ten Tusscher and modified O'Hara models show closest agreement to experimental data.

Modeling an Excitable Biosynthetic Tissue with Inherent Variability for Paired Computational-Experimental Studies

To understand how excitable tissues give rise to arrhythmias, it is crucially necessary to understand the electrical dynamics of cells in the context of their environment. Multicellular monolayer cultures have proven useful for investigating arrhythmias and other conduction anomalies, and because of their relatively simple structure, these constructs lend themselves to paired computational studies that often help elucidate mechanisms of the observed behavior. However, tissue cultures of cardiomyocyte monolayers currently require the use of neonatal cells with ionic properties that change rapidly during development and have thus been poorly characterized and modeled to date. Recently, Kirkton and Bursac demonstrated the ability to create biosynthetic excitable tissues from genetically engineered and immortalized HEK293 cells with well-characterized electrical properties and the ability to propagate action potentials. In this study, we developed and validated a computational model of these excitable HEK293 cells (called “Ex293” cells) using existing electrophysiological data and a genetic search algorithm. In order to reproduce not only the mean but also the variability of experimental observations, we examined what sources of variation were required in the computational model. Random cell-to-cell and inter-monolayer variation in both ionic conductances and tissue conductivity was necessary to explain the experimentally observed variability in action potential shape and macroscopic conduction, and the spatial organization of cell-to-cell conductance variation was found to not impact macroscopic behavior; the resulting model accurately reproduces both normal and drug-modified conduction behavior. The development of a computational Ex293 cell and tissue model provides a novel framework to perform paired computational-experimental studies to study normal and abnormal conduction in multidimensional excitable tissue, and the methodology of modeling variation can be applied to models of any excitable cell.

One of the major challenges in trying to understand how arrhythmias can form in cardiac tissue is studying how the electrical activity of cardiac cells is affected by their surroundings. Current approaches have focused on studying cardiac cells in vitro and using computational models to elucidate the mechanisms behind experimental findings. However, tissue culture techniques are limited to working with neonatal, rather than adult, cells, and computational modeling of these cells has proven challenging. In this work, we have a developed a new approach for conducting paired experimental and computational studies by using a cell line engineered with the minimum machinery for excitability, and a computational model derived and validated directly from this cell line. In order to create a model that reproduces the diversity, rather than simply the average behavior, of experimental studies, we have incorporated a simple yet novel method of inherent variability, and explored what types of experimental variation must be incorporated into the model to recapitulate experimental findings. Using this new platform for paired experimental-computational studies with inherent variability, we will be able to study and better understand how changes in cardiac structure such as fibrosis and heterogeneity lead to conduction slowing, conduction failure, and arrhythmogenesis.

Using physiologically based models for clinical translation: predictive modelling, data interpretation or something in-between?

Heart disease continues to be a significant clinical problem in Western society. Predictive models and simulations that integrate physiological understanding with patient information derived from clinical data have huge potential to contribute to improving our understanding of both the progression and treatment of heart disease. In particular they provide the potential to improve patient selection and optimisation of cardiovascular interventions across a range of pathologies. Currently a significant proportion of this potential is still to be realised. In this paper we discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with this realisation. Reviewing the successful elements of model translation for biophysically based models and the emerging supporting technologies, we propose three distinct modes of clinical translation. Finally we outline the challenges ahead that will be fundamental to overcome if the ultimate goal of fully personalised clinical cardiac care is to be achieved.

Potassium channels in the heart: structure, function and regulation

This paper is the outcome of the fourth UC Davis Systems Approach to Understanding Cardiac Excitation-Contraction Coupling and Arrhythmias Symposium, a biannual event that aims to bring together leading experts in subfields of cardiovascular biomedicine to focus on topics of importance to the field. The theme of the 2016 symposium was 'K⁺ Channels and Regulation'. Experts in the field contributed their experimental and mathematical modelling perspectives and discussed emerging questions, controversies and challenges on the topic of cardiac K⁺ channels. This paper summarizes the topics of formal presentations and informal discussions from the symposium on the structural basis of voltage-gated K⁺ channel function, as well as the mechanisms involved in regulation of K⁺ channel gating, expression and membrane localization. Given the critical role for K⁺ channels in determining the rate of cardiac repolarization, it is hardly surprising that essentially every aspect of K⁺ channel function is exquisitely regulated in cardiac myocytes. This regulation is complex and highly interrelated to other aspects of myocardial function. K⁺ channel regulatory mechanisms alter, and are altered by, physiological challenges, pathophysiological conditions, and pharmacological agents. An accompanying paper focuses on the integrative role of K⁺ channels in cardiac electrophysiology, i.e. how K⁺ currents shape the cardiac action potential, and how their dysfunction can lead to arrhythmias, and discusses K⁺ channel-based therapeutics. A fundamental understanding of K⁺ channel regulatory mechanisms and disease processes is fundamental to reveal new targets for human therapy.

The Cardiac Electrophysiology Web Lab

Computational modeling of cardiac cellular electrophysiology has a long history, and many models are now available for different species, cell types, and experimental preparations. This success brings with it a challenge: how do we assess and compare the underlying hypotheses and emergent behaviors so that we can choose a model as a suitable basis for a new study or to characterize how a particular model behaves in different scenarios? We have created an online resource for the characterization and comparison of electrophysiological cell models in a wide range of experimental scenarios. The details of the mathematical model (quantitative assumptions and hypotheses formulated as ordinary differential equations) are separated from the experimental protocol being simulated. Each model and protocol is then encoded in computer-readable formats. A simulation tool runs virtual experiments on models encoded in CellML, and a website (https://chaste.cs.ox.ac.uk/WebLab) provides a friendly interface, allowing users to store and compare results. The system currently contains a sample of 36 models and 23 protocols, including current-voltage curve generation, action potential properties under steady pacing at different rates, restitution properties, block of particular channels, and hypo-/hyperkalemia. This resource is publicly available, open source, and free, and we invite the community to use it and become involved in future developments. Investigators interested in comparing competing hypotheses using models can make a more informed decision, and those developing new models can upload them for easy evaluation under the existing protocols, and even add their own protocols.

A Parsimonious Model of the Rabbit Action Potential Elucidates the Minimal Physiological Requirements for Alternans and Spiral Wave Breakup

Elucidating the underlying mechanisms of fatal cardiac arrhythmias requires a tight integration of electrophysiological experiments, models, and theory. Existing models of transmembrane action potential (AP) are complex (resulting in over parameterization) and varied (leading to dissimilar predictions). Thus, simpler models are needed to elucidate the "minimal physiological requirements" to reproduce significant observable phenomena using as few parameters as possible. Moreover, models have been derived from experimental studies from a variety of species under a range of environmental conditions (for example, all existing rabbit AP models incorporate a formulation of the rapid sodium current, INa, based on 30 year old data from chick embryo cell aggregates). Here we develop a simple "parsimonious" rabbit AP model that is mathematically identifiable (i.e., not over parameterized) by combining a novel Hodgkin-Huxley formulation of INa with a phenomenological model of repolarization similar to the voltage dependent, time-independent rectifying outward potassium current (IK). The model was calibrated using the following experimental data sets measured from the same species (rabbit) under physiological conditions: dynamic current-voltage (I-V) relationships during the AP upstroke; rapid recovery of AP excitability during the relative refractory period; and steady-state INa inactivation via voltage clamp. Simulations reproduced several important "emergent" phenomena including cellular alternans at rates > 250 bpm as observed in rabbit myocytes, reentrant spiral waves as observed on the surface of the rabbit heart, and spiral wave breakup. Model variants were studied which elucidated the minimal requirements for alternans and spiral wave break up, namely the kinetics of INa inactivation and the non-linear rectification of IK.The simplicity of the model, and the fact that its parameters have physiological meaning, make it ideal for engendering generalizable mechanistic insight and should provide a solid "building-block" to generate more detailed ionic models to represent complex rabbit electrophysiology.

Comparison of Detailed and Simplified Models of Human Atrial Myocytes to Recapitulate Patient Specific Properties

Computer studies are often used to study mechanisms of cardiac arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation (AF). A crucial component in these studies is the electrophysiological model that describes the membrane potential of myocytes. The models vary from detailed, describing numerous ion channels, to simplified, grouping ionic channels into a minimal set of variables. The parameters of these models, however, are determined across different experiments in varied species. Furthermore, a single set of parameters may not describe variations across patients, and models have rarely been shown to recapitulate critical features of AF in a given patient. In this study we develop physiologically accurate computational human atrial models by fitting parameters of a detailed and of a simplified model to clinical data for five patients undergoing ablation therapy. Parameters were simultaneously fitted to action potential (AP) morphology, action potential duration (APD) restitution and conduction velocity (CV) restitution curves in these patients. For both models, our fitting procedure generated parameter sets that accurately reproduced clinical data, but differed markedly from published sets and between patients, emphasizing the need for patient-specific adjustment. Both models produced two-dimensional spiral wave dynamics for that were similar for each patient. These results show that simplified, computationally efficient models are an attractive choice for simulations of human atrial electrophysiology in spatially extended domains. This study motivates the development and validation of patient-specific model-based mechanistic studies to target therapy.

Rabbit-specific computational modelling of ventricular cell electrophysiology: Using populations of models to explore variability in the response to ischemia

Computational modelling, combined with experimental investigations, is a powerful method for investigating complex cardiac electrophysiological behaviour. The use of rabbit-specific models, due to the similarities of cardiac electrophysiology in this species with human, is especially prevalent. In this paper, we first briefly review rabbit-specific computational modelling of ventricular cell electrophysiology, multi-cellular simulations including cellular heterogeneity, and acute ischemia. This mini-review is followed by an original computational investigation of variability in the electrophysiological response of two experimentally-calibrated populations of rabbit-specific ventricular myocyte action potential models to acute ischemia. We performed a systematic exploration of the response of the model populations to varying degrees of ischemia and individual ischemic parameters, to investigate their individual and combined effects on action potential duration and refractoriness. This revealed complex interactions between model population variability and ischemic factors, which combined to enhance variability during ischemia. This represents an important step towards an improved understanding of the role that physiological variability may play in electrophysiological alterations during acute ischemia.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology

KEY POINTS

Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools. We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome. We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community.

ABSTRACT

The Cardiac Physiome effort is one of the most mature and successful applications of mathematical and computational modelling for describing and advancing the understanding of physiology. After five decades of development, physiological cardiac models are poised to realise the promise of translational research via clinical applications such as drug development and patient-specific approaches as well as ablation, cardiac resynchronisation and contractility modulation therapies. For models to be included as a vital component of the decision process in safety-critical applications, rigorous assessment of model credibility will be required. This White Paper describes one aspect of this process by identifying and classifying sources of variability and uncertainty in models as well as their implications for the application and development of cardiac models. We stress the need to understand and quantify the sources of variability and uncertainty in model inputs, and the impact of model structure and complexity and their consequences for predictive model outputs. We propose that the future of the Cardiac Physiome should include a probabilistic approach to quantify the relationship of variability and uncertainty of model inputs and outputs.

Recent developments in using mechanistic cardiac modelling for drug safety evaluation

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Modelling and simulation can streamline decision making in drug safety testing.

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Computational cardiac electrophysiology is a mature technology with a long heritage.

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There are many challenges and opportunities in using in silico techniques in future.

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We discuss how models can be used at different stages of drug discovery.

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CiPA will combine screening platforms, human cell assays and in silico predictions.

On the tenth anniversary of two key International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) guidelines relating to cardiac proarrhythmic safety, an initiative aims to consider the implementation of a new paradigm that combines in vitro and in silico technologies to improve risk assessment. The Comprehensive In Vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA) initiative (co-sponsored by the Cardiac Safety Research Consortium, Health and Environmental Sciences Institute, Safety Pharmacology Society and FDA) is a bold and welcome step in using computational tools for regulatory decision making. This review compares and contrasts the state-of-the-art tools from empirical to mechanistic models of cardiac electrophysiology, and how they can and should be used in combination with experimental tests for compound decision making.

Improving cardiomyocyte model fidelity and utility via dynamic electrophysiology protocols and optimization algorithms

Mathematical models of cardiac electrophysiology are instrumental in determining mechanisms of cardiac arrhythmias. However, the foundation of a realistic multiscale heart model is only as strong as the underlying cell model. While there have been myriad advances in the improvement of cellular-level models, the identification of model parameters, such as ion channel conductances and rate constants, remains a challenging problem. The primary limitations to this process include: (1) such parameters are usually estimated from data recorded using standard electrophysiology voltage-clamp protocols that have not been developed with model building in mind, and (2) model parameters are typically tuned manually to subjectively match a desired output. Over the last decade, methods aimed at overcoming these disadvantages have emerged. These approaches include the use of optimization or fitting tools for parameter estimation and incorporating more extensive data for output matching. Here, we review recent advances in parameter estimation for cardiomyocyte models, focusing on the use of more complex electrophysiology protocols and global search heuristics. We also discuss future applications of such parameter identification, including development of cell-specific and patient-specific mathematical models to investigate arrhythmia mechanisms and predict therapy strategies.

Verification of cardiac mechanics software: benchmark problems and solutions for testing active and passive material behaviour

Models of cardiac mechanics are increasingly used to investigate cardiac physiology. These models are characterized by a high level of complexity, including the particular anisotropic material properties of biological tissue and the actively contracting material. A large number of independent simulation codes have been developed, but a consistent way of verifying the accuracy and replicability of simulations is lacking. To aid in the verification of current and future cardiac mechanics solvers, this study provides three benchmark problems for cardiac mechanics. These benchmark problems test the ability to accurately simulate pressure-type forces that depend on the deformed objects geometry, anisotropic and spatially varying material properties similar to those seen in the left ventricle and active contractile forces. The benchmark was solved by 11 different groups to generate consensus solutions, with typical differences in higher-resolution solutions at approximately 0.5%, and consistent results between linear, quadratic and cubic finite elements as well as different approaches to simulating incompressible materials. Online tools and solutions are made available to allow these tests to be effectively used in verification of future cardiac mechanics software.

Hodgkin-Huxley revisited: reparametrization and identifiability analysis of the classic action potential model with approximate Bayesian methods

As cardiac cell models become increasingly complex, a correspondingly complex 'genealogy' of inherited parameter values has also emerged. The result has been the loss of a direct link between model parameters and experimental data, limiting both reproducibility and the ability to re-fit to new data. We examine the ability of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to infer parameter distributions in the seminal action potential model of Hodgkin and Huxley, for which an immediate and documented connection to experimental results exists. The ability of ABC to produce tight posteriors around the reported values for the gating rates of sodium and potassium ion channels validates the precision of this early work, while the highly variable posteriors around certain voltage dependency parameters suggests that voltage clamp experiments alone are insufficient to constrain the full model. Despite this, Hodgkin and Huxley's estimates are shown to be competitive with those produced by ABC, and the variable behaviour of posterior parametrized models under complex voltage protocols suggests that with additional data the model could be fully constrained. This work will provide the starting point for a full identifiability analysis of commonly used cardiac models, as well as a template for informative, data-driven parametrization of newly proposed models.

Effects of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation-Induced Electrical Remodeling on Atrial Electro-Mechanics - Insights from a 3D Model of the Human Atria

Aims

Atrial stunning, a loss of atrial mechanical contraction, can occur following a successful cardioversion. It is hypothesized that persistent atrial fibrillation-induced electrical remodeling (AFER) on atrial electrophysiology may be responsible for such impaired atrial mechanics. This simulation study aimed to investigate the effects of AFER on atrial electro-mechanics.

Methods and Results

A 3D electromechanical model of the human atria was developed to investigate the effects of AFER on atrial electro-mechanics. Simulations were carried out in 3 conditions for 4 states: (i) the control condition, representing the normal tissue (state 1) and the tissue 2–3 months after cardioversion (state 2) when the atrial tissue recovers its electrophysiological properties after completion of reverse electrophysiological remodelling; (ii) AFER-SR condition for AF-remodeled tissue with normal sinus rhythm (SR) (state 3); and (iii) AFER-AF condition for AF-remodeled tissue with re-entrant excitation waves (state 4). Our results indicate that at the cellular level, AFER (states 3 & 4) abbreviated action potentials and reduced the Ca²⁺ content in the sarcoplasmic reticulum, resulting in a reduced amplitude of the intracellular Ca²⁺ transient leading to decreased cell active force and cell shortening as compared to the control condition (states 1 & 2). Consequently at the whole organ level, atrial contraction in AFER-SR condition (state 3) was dramatically reduced. In the AFER-AF condition (state 4) atrial contraction was almost abolished.

Conclusions

This study provides novel insights into understanding atrial electro-mechanics illustrating that AFER impairs atrial contraction due to reduced intracellular Ca²⁺ transients.

Filament Dynamics during Simulated Ventricular Fibrillation in a High-Resolution Rabbit Heart

The mechanisms underlying ventricular fibrillation (VF) are not well understood. The electrical activity on the heart surface during VF has been recorded extensively in the experimental setting and in some cases clinically; however, corresponding transmural activation patterns are prohibitively difficult to measure. In this paper, we use a high-resolution biventricular heart model to study three-dimensional electrical activity during fibrillation, focusing on the driving sources of VF: “filaments,” the organising centres of unstable reentrant scroll waves. We show, for the first time, specific 3D filament dynamics during simulated VF in a whole heart geometry that includes fine-scale anatomical structures. Our results suggest that transmural activity is much more complex than what would be expected from surface observations alone. We present examples of complex intramural activity, including filament breakup and reattachment, anchoring to the thin right ventricular apex; rapid transitions among various filament shapes; and filament lengths much greater than wall thickness. We also present evidence for anatomy playing a major role in VF development and coronary vessels and trabeculae influencing filament dynamics. Overall, our results indicate that intramural activity during simulated VF is extraordinarily complex and suggest that further investigation of 3D filaments is necessary to fully comprehend recorded surface patterns.

Clinical Diagnostic Biomarkers from the Personalization of Computational Models of Cardiac Physiology

Computational modelling of the heart is rapidly advancing to the point of clinical utility. However, the difficulty of parameterizing and validating models from clinical data indicates that the routine application of truly predictive models remains a significant challenge. We argue there is significant value in an intermediate step towards prediction. This step is the use of biophysically based models to extract clinically useful information from existing patient data. Specifically in this paper we review methodologies for applying modelling frameworks for this goal in the areas of quantifying cardiac anatomy, estimating myocardial stiffness and optimizing measurements of coronary perfusion. Using these indicative examples of the general overarching approach, we finally discuss the value, ongoing challenges and future potential for applying biophysically based modelling in the clinical context.

Computational analysis of the regulation of Ca(2+) dynamics in rat ventricular myocytes

Force-frequency relationships of isolated cardiac myocytes show complex behaviors that are thought to be specific to both the species and the conditions associated with the experimental preparation. Ca(2+) signaling plays an important role in shaping the force-frequency relationship, and understanding the properties of the force-frequency relationship in vivo requires an understanding of Ca(2+) dynamics under physiologically relevant conditions. Ca(2+) signaling is itself a complicated process that is best understood on a quantitative level via biophysically based computational simulation. Although a large number of models are available in the literature, the models are often a conglomeration of components parameterized to data of incompatible species and/or experimental conditions. In addition, few models account for modulation of Ca(2+) dynamics via β-adrenergic and calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) signaling pathways even though they are hypothesized to play an important regulatory role in vivo. Both protein-kinase-A and CaMKII are known to phosphorylate a variety of targets known to be involved in Ca(2+) signaling, but the effects of these pathways on the frequency- and inotrope-dependence of Ca(2+) dynamics are not currently well understood. In order to better understand Ca(2+) dynamics under physiological conditions relevant to rat, a previous computational model is adapted and re-parameterized to a self-consistent dataset obtained under physiological temperature and pacing frequency and updated to include β-adrenergic and CaMKII regulatory pathways. The necessity of specific effector mechanisms of these pathways in capturing inotrope- and frequency-dependence of the data is tested by attempting to fit the data while including and/or excluding those effector components. We find that: (1) β-adrenergic-mediated phosphorylation of the L-type calcium channel (LCC) (and not of phospholamban (PLB)) is sufficient to explain the inotrope-dependence; and (2) that CaMKII-mediated regulation of neither the LCC nor of PLB is required to explain the frequency-dependence of the data.

Human cardiac systems electrophysiology and arrhythmogenesis: iteration of experiment and computation

Human cardiac electrophysiology (EP) is a unique system for computational modelling at multiple scales. Due to the complexity of the cardiac excitation sequence, coordinated activity must occur from the single channel to the entire myocardial syncytium. Thus, sophisticated computational algorithms have been developed to investigate cardiac EP at the level of ion channels, cardiomyocytes, multicellular tissues, and the whole heart. Although understanding of each functional level will ultimately be important to thoroughly understand mechanisms of physiology and disease, cardiac arrhythmias are expressly the product of cardiac tissue-containing enough cardiomyocytes to sustain a reentrant loop of activation. In addition, several properties of cardiac cellular EP, that are critical for arrhythmogenesis, are significantly altered by cell-to-cell coupling. However, relevant human cardiac EP data, upon which to develop or validate models at all scales, has been lacking. Thus, over several years, we have developed a paradigm for multiscale human heart physiology investigation and have recovered and studied over 300 human hearts. We have generated a rich experimental dataset, from which we better understand mechanisms of arrhythmia in human and can improve models of human cardiac EP. In addition, in collaboration with computational physiologists, we are developing a database for the deposition of human heart experimental data, including thorough experimental documentation. We anticipate that accessibility to this human heart dataset will further human EP computational investigations, as well as encourage greater data transparency within the field of cardiac EP.

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of a Cardiac Cell Model Using a Gaussian Process Emulator

Models of electrical activity in cardiac cells have become important research tools as they can provide a quantitative description of detailed and integrative physiology. However, cardiac cell models have many parameters, and how uncertainties in these parameters affect the model output is difficult to assess without undertaking large numbers of model runs. In this study we show that a surrogate statistical model of a cardiac cell model (the Luo-Rudy 1991 model) can be built using Gaussian process (GP) emulators. Using this approach we examined how eight outputs describing the action potential shape and action potential duration restitution depend on six inputs, which we selected to be the maximum conductances in the Luo-Rudy 1991 model. We found that the GP emulators could be fitted to a small number of model runs, and behaved as would be expected based on the underlying physiology that the model represents. We have shown that an emulator approach is a powerful tool for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in cardiac cell models.

Computer Modelling for Better Diagnosis and Therapy of Patients by Cardiac Resynchronisation Therapy

Mathematical or computer models have become increasingly popular in biomedical science. Although they are a simplification of reality, computer models are able to link a multitude of processes to each other. In the fields of cardiac physiology and cardiology, models can be used to describe the combined activity of all ion channels (electrical models) or contraction-related processes (mechanical models) in potentially millions of cardiac cells. Electromechanical models go one step further by coupling electrical and mechanical processes and incorporating mechano-electrical feedback. The field of cardiac computer modelling is making rapid progress due to advances in research and the ever-increasing calculation power of computers. Computer models have helped to provide better understanding of disease mechanisms and treatment. The ultimate goal will be to create patient-specific models using diagnostic measurements from the individual patient. This paper gives a brief overview of computer models in the field of cardiology and mentions some scientific achievements and clinical applications, especially in relation to cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT).

Cell-specific cardiac electrophysiology models

The traditional cardiac model-building paradigm involves constructing a composite model using data collected from many cells. Equations are derived for each relevant cellular component (e.g., ion channel, exchanger) independently. After the equations for all components are combined to form the composite model, a subset of parameters is tuned, often arbitrarily and by hand, until the model output matches a target objective, such as an action potential. Unfortunately, such models often fail to accurately simulate behavior that is dynamically dissimilar (e.g., arrhythmia) to the simple target objective to which the model was fit. In this study, we develop a new approach in which data are collected via a series of complex electrophysiology protocols from single cardiac myocytes and then used to tune model parameters via a parallel fitting method known as a genetic algorithm (GA). The dynamical complexity of the electrophysiological data, which can only be fit by an automated method such as a GA, leads to more accurately parameterized models that can simulate rich cardiac dynamics. The feasibility of the method is first validated computationally, after which it is used to develop models of isolated guinea pig ventricular myocytes that simulate the electrophysiological dynamics significantly better than does a standard guinea pig model. In addition to improving model fidelity generally, this approach can be used to generate a cell-specific model. By so doing, the approach may be useful in applications ranging from studying the implications of cell-to-cell variability to the prediction of intersubject differences in response to pharmacological treatment.

Mathematical models of cardiac cell electrophysiology are widely used as predictive and illuminatory tools, but have been developed for decades using a suboptimal process. The models are typically constructed by manual adjustment of parameters to fit simple data and therefore often underperform when used to predict complex behavior such as arrhythmias. We present a novel method of model parameterization using automated optimization and dynamically rich fitting data and then demonstrate that this approach is better at finding the “real” model of a cell. Application of the method to cardiac myocytes leads to cell-specific models, which may enable well-controlled studies of both cellular- and subject-level population heterogeneity in disease propensity and response to therapies.

Uncertainty quantification of fast sodium current steady-state inactivation for multi-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology

Perhaps the most mature area of multi-scale systems biology is the modelling of the heart. Current models are grounded in over fifty years of research in the development of biophysically detailed models of the electrophysiology (EP) of cardiac cells, but one aspect which is inadequately addressed is the incorporation of uncertainty and physiological variability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the identification and characterisation of the uncertainty in model parameters derived from experimental data, and the computation of the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. It is a necessary tool for establishing the credibility of computational models, and will likely be expected of EP models for future safety-critical clinical applications. The focus of this paper is formal UQ of one major sub-component of cardiac EP models, the steady-state inactivation of the fast sodium current, INa. To better capture average behaviour and quantify variability across cells, we have applied for the first time an 'individual-based' statistical methodology to assess voltage clamp data. Advantages of this approach over a more traditional 'population-averaged' approach are highlighted. The method was used to characterise variability amongst cells isolated from canine epi and endocardium, and this variability was then 'propagated forward' through a canine model to determine the resultant uncertainty in model predictions at different scales, such as of upstroke velocity and spiral wave dynamics. Statistically significant differences between epi and endocardial cells (greater half-inactivation and less steep slope of steady state inactivation curve for endo) was observed, and the forward propagation revealed a lack of robustness of the model to underlying variability, but also surprising robustness to variability at the tissue scale. Overall, the methodology can be used to: (i) better analyse voltage clamp data; (ii) characterise underlying population variability; (iii) investigate consequences of variability; and (iv) improve the ability to validate a model. To our knowledge this article is the first to quantify population variability in membrane dynamics in this manner, and the first to perform formal UQ for a component of a cardiac model. The approach is likely to find much wider applicability across systems biology as current application domains reach greater levels of maturity.

Quantifying inter-species differences in contractile function through biophysical modelling

Animal models and measurements are frequently used to guide and evaluate clinical interventions. In this context, knowledge of inter-species differences in physiology is crucial for understanding the limitations and relevance of animal experimental assays for informing clinical applications. Extensive effort has been put into studying the structure and function of cardiac contractile proteins and how differences in these translate into the functional properties of muscles. However, integrating this knowledge into a quantitative description, formalising and highlighting inter-species differences both in the kinetics and in the regulation of physiological mechanisms, remains challenging. In this study we propose and apply a novel approach for the quantification of inter-species differences between mouse, rat and human. Assuming conservation of the fundamental physiological mechanisms underpinning contraction, biophysically based computational models are fitted to simulate experimentally recorded phenotypes from multiple species. The phenotypic differences between species are then succinctly quantified as differences in the biophysical model parameter values. This provides the potential of quantitatively establishing the human relevance of both animal-based experimental and computational models for application in a clinical context. Our results indicate that the parameters related to the sensitivity and cooperativity of calcium binding to troponin C and the activation and relaxation rates of tropomyosin/crossbridge binding kinetics differ most significantly between mouse, rat and human, while for example the reference tension, as expected, shows only minor differences between the species. Hence, while confirming expected inter-species differences in calcium sensitivity due to large differences in the observed calcium transients, our results also indicate more unexpected differences in the cooperativity mechanism. Specifically, the decrease in the unbinding rate of calcium to troponin C with increasing active tension was much lower for mouse than for rat and human. Our results also predicted crossbridge binding to be slowest in human and fastest in mouse.