Elite Junior Throwers Unlikely to Remain at the Top Level in the Senior Category

Mitigating against relative age effects in youth Track & Field: Validating corrective adjustment procedures across multiple events

OBJECTIVES

With the aim to better identify talented Track & Field performance development, this study estimated the relationships between chronological (decimal) age with 60-m sprint, high jump, triple jump, and pole vault performance. Then, to mitigate against expected Relative Age Effects (RAEs), Corrective Adjustment Procedures (CAPs) were applied to an independent sample.

DESIGN

Mixed-longitudinal design examining public data between 2005 and 2019.

METHODS

The performances of 5339 Italian sprinters and jumpers (53.1 %) spanning 11.01-17.99 years of age were examined, with trendlines between chronological age and performance established. Related to an independent sample (N = 40,306; female 45.5 %), trendlines were then utilised to apply CAPs and adjust individual performance. Considering raw and adjusted performance data, RAE distributions were examined for the top 25 % and 10 % performers.

RESULTS

For all male and female events, quadratic models best summarised the relationships between chronological age and performance (R2 = 0.74-0.89). When examining independent athletes in similar event, RAEs were more pronounced in males (Cramer's V = 0.35-0.14) than females (Cramer's V = 0.29-0.07). For both sexes, RAE magnitude decreased with age and increased according to performance level (i.e., Top25%-Top10%). However, following CAP applications, RAEs were reduced or removed within annual age groups and performance levels.

CONCLUSIONS

With RAEs prevalent across Italian youth Track & Field events, findings validate CAPs as a strategy to account for the influence of relative age differences on athletic performance. CAPs help establish a more equitable strategy for performance evaluation and could help improve the efficacy of long-term athlete development programming.

Performance pathways in elite middle- and long-distance track and field athletes: The influence of a successful youth

OBJECTIVES

There is limited information on the performance progression of athletics endurance athletes from junior-to-senior status and the determinants of success in adulthood. This study aimed to quantify the youth-to-senior transition rate, the likelihood of success and the relationship between youth and senior performance amongst world-class athletes competing in middle- and long-distance disciplines.

DESIGN

Retrospective design examining public data between 2000 and 2019.

METHODS

The performances of 4678 international athletes (45.3 % female) were analysed. World's all-time top 50 athletes were identified for U18 and Senior categories (age ≥ 20 years). Youth-to-senior transition rate and transition probabilities were calculated. Correlations between best U18 and Senior performances were determined to assess the stability of the performance.

RESULTS

The youth-to-senior transition rate for top U18 athletes was low for males and females (~19 % and 21 %). Nevertheless, the probability of transition to a top senior was ~7 times higher for top U18 athletes than for non-top U18 athletes. The correlations between youth and senior best performances were low-to-high.

CONCLUSIONS

Few top U18 athletes maintained top world ranking status during their senior careers. Still, they are more likely to become top senior athletes than those who did not perform at the top level in U18. The association between youth and senior performance is stronger when comparing the same discipline or when athletes competed over longer distances in their senior compared to U18 career. Being a successful youth athlete may represent a small advantage for future success, however, it does not guarantee advancement to the senior top level.

Is There a Relative Age Effect among the Most Successful Track and Field Athletes?

The prevalence of the Relative Age Effect (RAE) was studied among medalists from the World Athletics Championships at U18, U20 and Senior age groups and from the Olympic Games from 2000 to 2022. The specific events examined were the 100, 200, 400, 800, 1500, and 3000/5000 m, the long jump, the triple jump, the high jump and the pole vault. Dates of birth from 1,858 outdoor track and field athletes were analysed and further divided into four groups according to the quartile of birth. The RAE was found to be widespread among athletes of both sexes in U18 and U20 age groups in all examined disciplines. There was no difference between the most successful U18 and U20 athletes (p = 0.52). Among senior athletes of both sexes, this effect was not detected and the number of "late-born" athletes in this age group was higher than athletes born in the first three quarters. The prevalence of the RAE across the four groups of events was found in U18 and U20 age groups. Additionally, within each age group, the difference among events was statistically significant. In most successful track and field athletes, the RAE is only significant in U18 and U20 age groups. In senior athletes, the number of "late-born" athletes is significant while RAE disappears. These data may be considered when assessing the athletic potential of an individual athlete.

Cadet and Junior Performance Is Associated With Senior's World Championship and Olympics Achievement in Judo

Purpose: We determined whether cadet and junior Judo World Championship participation and medal achievement would predict senior performance at World Championship (WC) and Olympic Games (OG). Methods: We analyzed retrospectively a total of 7780 athletes who competed at the OG and WC in the cadet, junior, and senior between 2009 and 2021. Results: There was an increase in the probability of winning a medal in the senior category (WC and OG, and only WC) ranged from 4.3 to 4.5 for medal-winning cadets compared to non-medalists and this probability remained around 3.3-3.8 for medalists in the male and 5.3-5.4 for the female medalists in cadet WC. Moreover, the chance of winning a medal in the senior category (WC and OG) was 8.1-8.5 times greater for medalists when compared to non-medalists in the junior WC. In turn, the probability of winning a medal in the senior (WC) was 1.5-1.7 times greater for athletes who did not compete in the junior WC. In the OG, the probability of winning a medal was 3.5 greater times for medalists when compared to non-medalists at cadet and junior WC. Conclusion: Thus, being a cadet or junior WC medalist increases the probability of winning a senior WC or an Olympic medal.

Prospective and Retrospective Analysis of the Sporting Success of Elite Spanish High and Long Jumpers

The aim of the present study was to analyze the sporting progression from U14 to senior categories of elite Spanish high and long jumpers. For prospective analysis, 300 athletes ranked top 20 at U14 were analyzed (153 female and 147 male). For retrospective analysis, 64 athletes ranked in the top 20 in the senior category were included (21 female and 43 male). Ranking positions were registered in each of the seasons where they presented records. Only 6.3% (19) of athletes who reached the top 20 at U14 became successful senior athletes [4.7% (14) of athletes maintained top 20 status throughout their sporting careers from U14 to senior]. The transition rate from U14 to U16 (35.7%) was the most severe drop down in consecutive categories (after this, it ranged from 47.8 to 66.7%). Of the senior top 20 athletes (64), most of them were already ranked top 20 at U16 (59.4%, 38), at U18 (62.5%, 40), at U20 (70.3%, 45) and at U23 (78.1%, 50). Nevertheless, only 34.4% (22) were top 20 when they were U14 athletes. Transition rates in the top 20 senior athletes ranged from 86.7 to 95.5%. Around one out of four (26.6%, 17) of the top 20 senior athletes maintained top 20 status throughout their sporting careers from U14 to the senior category. Although early success is not a good predictor of senior success, successful senior athletes excelled early on and were able to remain in top rankings throughout their sporting careers of national elite jumpers.

International selection and competition in youth sport: pin the tail on the donkey or targeted intervention?

Across sporting contexts, there is growing debate surrounding the utility of junior international age group selection in sport. In this regard, there has been considerable focus on the age of selection, with the low conversion of athletes from junior to senior international level often used to critique the efficiency of such programmes. In this perspective article, we argue that there is a need for a more nuanced consideration of the effectiveness of international age groups in talent systems. We begin this perspective article with a synthesis of the literature pertaining to junior to senior transitions in sport, followed by the implications and opportunity cost presented by international age groups. We argue for a more contextual evaluation of international age groups relative to the performance aims of a talent system, the need for manipulation of challenge dynamics, and the resource costs of doing so (e.g., providing developmental challenges for those who have early advantage, or spreading resource amongst greater numbers for broader impact). We suggest that talent systems evaluate the opportunity cost presented by international age groups, with decisions based upon individual strategic context.

Physical fitness and motor competence performance characteristics of Chinese elite youth athletes from four track and field throwing disciplines-a cross-sectional study

Purpose: For systematic athletic training and targeted talent development, it is essential to know the physical fitness and motor competencies of top athletes in detail. However, it can be difficult to identify differences in performance requirements and thus to provide adequate support, especially for sports that at first glance appear to have similar demands-such as track and field throwing disciplines. Therefore, the aim of the study was to examine the physical fitness and motor competence of top athletes from different throwing disciplines and to check whether the athletes' performance parameters match the specific requirements of the respective sport. Methods: The study involved 289 male youth athletes (aged 14-18 years) across four distinct throwing disciplines: shot put (n = 101), hammer throw (n = 16), discus throw (n = 63), and javelin throw (n = 109). The performance evaluation comprised three anthropometric measurements and twelve motor performance prerequisites applicable to the throwing disciplines. Discriminant analysis and neural networks (Multilayer Perceptron) were implemented to determine the possibility of distinguishing among athletes from the four sports. Results: The study's findings indicate that in male throwing athletes, disparities in general physical fitness and motor proficiency assessments discern the majority of talented young athletes based on their specific sport (discriminant analysis: 68.2%; multilayer perceptron analysis: 72.2%). This remains applicable irrespective of the classification method employed. Discus throwers possessed a height advantage, while shot putters and hammer throwers exhibited superior arm strength. Javelin throwers displayed better explosive strength and sprinting speed. Except for the hammer throwers, all events demonstrated a high level of explosive power in the medicine ball forward or backward throw test, which was especially crucial for shot put and discus athletes. Conclusion: The significance of physical fitness and motor competence tests in identifying and transferring talented athletes in track and field throwing disciplines has been affirmed. Using linear and non-linear classification methods, most athletes could be assigned to their correct sport. However, this also shows that slightly different training and talent identification is required for each of these sports. Furthermore, non-linear analysis methods can provide useful support for the development processes in junior competitive sports.

Junior to senior transition pathway in Italian Football: The rocky road to the top is not determined by youth national team's selections

Football is a popular sport, but little is known about the youth-to-senior transition rates in elite players, particularly in large and successful countries. This study aims to investigate the youth-to-senior transition rate in the Italian national football team, both prospectively and retrospectively, and to explore if Relative Age Effects (RAEs) affect this transition. Data from 885 players selected in youth and senior Italian national teams between 2000 and 2021 were included in the study. For each player, the birthdate and the number of selection in Under 16, 17, 19, 21 and senior team was considered. The transition rate was determined by the number of youth players competing in the Senior National team (and vice versa), whilst birth quarter (Q) distributions with a chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Prospectively, the transition rate increased as age increased (i.e., from ~20% in U16 to ~50% in U19). Retrospectively, less than 10-20% of youth players were subsequently selected for the senior team. Data revealed a skewed birth date distribution in all age groups, and the RAEs magnitude decreased when age increased (i.e., ORs for Q1 vs Q4 was ~ 9 in U16 and ~ 1.7 in senior teams). Nevertheless, the RAE magnitude was smaller for successfully transitioned players. In conclusion, most players in the senior team were not previously selected for youth teams suggesting that junior international experience may not be a prerequisite for later success. Moreover, while the birthdate strongly influences the selection of youth national teams, its impact is less evident in the youth-to-senior transition.

Relative age effect reversal on the junior-to-senior transition in world-class athletics

The relative age effect (RAE) is a selection bias resulting from the interaction between the selected dates and birthdates. Nevertheless, the impact of birthdate on the junior-to-senior transition in international track and field is unclear. This study aimed to quantify the RAE's magnitude and test if birthdate affects the junior-to-senior transition rate. The birthdate and performances of 5,766 sprinters (female: 51.0%) and 5,863 jumpers (female: 45.9%) were collected. Elite athletes (operationally defined as the World's all-time Top 200, 100 and 50 athletes) were identified according to Under 18 and Senior categories. Skewed quartile distributions were observed in the Under 18 (effect size ranged = 0.15-0.10) but not in the Senior category. RAE magnitude increased according to performance level (i.e., from Top 200 to Top 50) and was higher in males than females. Relatively younger athletes showed significantly higher transition rates with a higher chance of maintaining top level in the senior category (odds ratio (OR) ~ 1.64). The probability of maintaining success was lower for sprinters than jumpers (OR ~ 0.70), influenced by decade of birth and continental place but similar for male and female athletes. Data corroborate that relatively younger athletes are disadvantaged in the junior category but advantaged when transitioning to the senior category.

Youth-to-senior transition in women's and girls' football: Towards a better understanding of relative age effects and gender-specific considerations

This study aimed to evaluate youth-to-senior transition and the relative age effect in Italian female football national teams. Birthdate data of 774 female players selected for Under 17 (N = 416), 19 (N = 265) and National Senior team (N = 93) were analysed. The youth-to-senior transition rate was determined by the number of youth players competing in the Senior National team (and vice versa), whilst birth quarter (Q) distributions with a chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Only 17.4% of youth players were able to be selected for the Senior National team, whereas 31.2% of the players reached the high-senior level without being selected for youth age groups. Data revealed a skewed birth date distribution in Under 17 and 19 teams (on average, Q1 = 35.6% vs Q4 = 18.5%) but not in the Senior National team. Youth players born in Q1 were two times more likely to be selected than in Q4. In Under 17, goalkeepers, defenders, and midfielders of Q1 players were overrepresented. However, Q4 players recorded higher conversion rates than Q1 (Q1 = 16.4% vs. Q4 = 25.0%). National youth experience may not be a prerequisite for being selected at the senior level. Moreover, this confers a higher probability of playing in the National Senior team than players not selected in youth rosters.

Two Is Better than One: Successful World-Class Sprinters Compete in Two Disciplines

We aimed to quantify the prevalence of track and field sprinters competing at a world-class level in more than one discipline, and we describe the career characteristics of single- and double-discipline athletes in terms of peak performance and the age of peak performance. The career performance of athletes ranked in the top 200 positions of the World Athletics database in the 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m were analyzed, i.e., 5514 career profiles (49.9% female). Using binomial proportion, we calculated how many competed in only one or more than one discipline. We also compared the peak performance and the age of peak performance of athletes who competed in one vs. more than one discipline. Independent of gender, about 50% of the athletes competing in the 100 m and 200 m also competed in the other discipline (i.e., 200 m and 100 m, respectively). Differently, only 20% of the athletes competing in the 400 m also competed in the 200 m. Sprinters competing in the 100-200 m and 200-400 m couples showed better peak performance than the sprinters competing in only one discipline. Many world-class sprinters compete in two disciplines, and the 100-200 m was the most prevalent couple. Our results also suggest that sprinters who compete in two disciplines may be advantaged compared to sprinters who compete in only one event.

Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater: Talent in Swimming Sprinting Events Might Be Hidden at Early Age

PURPOSE

This study aimed to describe the career performance progression of elite early- and later-success international swimmers competing in sprint events (ie, 50 and 100 m).

METHODS

The career performance trajectories of 6003 swimmers (50.9% females; 58,760 unique records) competing in the 4 swimming strokes were evaluated. Swimmers with early and later success were identified. The authors identified the top 50 all-time swimmers competing in junior career who did not reach the top 50 rankings in their senior career, and vice versa, and successful swimmers in both junior and senior career.

RESULTS

Early-success swimmers mainly achieved their peak performance before the age of 20 years and approximately 5-6 years before successful senior swimmers or approximately 3-4 years before successful swimmers both in junior and senior careers. The annual performance improvements of later-success swimmers were higher (about 1%-2%) until the age of 20 to 24 years, whereas early-success swimmers showed a performance stagnation at about 16 to 18 years in females and 19 to 20 years in males.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-success swimmers who achieved peak performance at a young age were unable to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood as they experienced a plateau in performance from the age of 20 years. The procedure of considering early performances solely for talent identification (and not the current rate of progression) might represent a limited approach for selecting future elite swimmers. Our results indicate that performance progression in the transition toward adult careers might be a strong indicator of performance potential.

Performance in youth track and field is associated with birth quartile. A register-based study among athletes in Norway from 10 years to senior level

Introduction

Earlier studies have demonstrated that the oldest in a competition class are more likely to succeed than the youngest, a phenomenon called relative age effect (RAE). Track and field give us an opportunity to investigate the advantage of being born early in the year based upon actual performance, since objective criteria are the performance indicators. Hence, the aim of the present study was to investigate the occurrence of RAE in Norwegian track and field athletes in events where physical capacity is important for success.

Methods

All individual season best results from the register of The Norwegian Athletics Federation (n = 28 999) obtained in all competition classes from the age of 10 years to senior in both sexes on 60m and 600m from 2011 to 2020 were downloaded. One-way ANOVA and LSD post hoc analyses were used to analyze performance differences according to birth quartiles between athletes. Further, odds ratios (OR) were used to calculate the odds of being among the top-100 for athletes for those born in the first quartile of the year compared to the last.

Results

The RAE was present in several of the competition classes in sprint compared to middle-distance running, and in more male than female competition classes. Overall, the OR of being among the top-100 in one of the competition classes on 60m sprint when born in first quartile compared to last quartile was 2.88 [2.30–3.62] for males and 1.54 [1.26–1.89] for females.

Conclusion

Being born early in the year in events with high demand for specific physical capacities is an advantage in both sexes in most of the youngest competition classes. In males, the advantage of being born early in the year lasted longer in sprint than in middle-distance running, indicating that puberty affects performance in sprint and middle-distance running differently.

Successful Young Athletes Have Low Probability of Being Ranked Among the Best Senior Athletes, but This Is Higher When Compared to Their Less Successful Peers

Background

Contemporary research has shown that only a small proportion of high achieving young athletes continue to become successful senior athletes. However, there is a lack of empirical literature tracking the success of senior male and female athletes who were considered high achieving as a youth.

Hypothesis

Athletes of both sexes who are successful in youth categories (U18 and U20) are more likely to be successful senior athletes.

Conclusion

Data from 67,600 athletes were collated from the tilastopaja.org platform. The inclusion criteria for both genders were determined by top-100 ranking in the U18 and U20 age groups and progression to the top-100 as a senior athlete. Only 23.5% of successful track and field athletes (ranked in top-100) at U18 became a successful senior athlete, while 35.4% were from the U20 group. Girls ranked in the top-100 U18 and U20 categories are significantly more likely to be ranked in the top-100 as a senior when compared to boys. Although, being ranked in the top-50 at U18 and U20 significantly increases the probability of becoming a successful senior athlete when compared with less successful athletes at these age groups (p < 0.001). Notably, the majority (68.5%) of the most successful senior athletes were not ranked in the top-100 when in the U18 or U20 age groups. Only a small group of track and field athletes that are successful at U18 and U20 become successful at senior level. The most successful track and field youth athletes are significantly more likely to succeed as a senior athlete than their less successful peers, while girls are more likely to be successful than boys.

Youth International Experience Is a Limited Predictor of Senior Success in Football: The Relationship Between U17, U19, and U21 Experience and Senior Elite Participation Across Nations and Playing Positions

Athlete participation in youth international competitions is often regarded as crucial to the attainment of future success. However, the link between participation and performance in sports at youth levels and senior levels is unclear at best. To understand this relationship better we conducted two studies of male football players. In Study 1, we examined adult performance at the upper levels of football using a factor analysis and identified the characteristics that define what we termed a “Super Elite” level, which is the highest level of participation. This outcome measure was used in Study 2 to explore further the link between youth international experience and athletes' Super Elite experience. Overall, our results indicated that youth international experience is a limited predictor of participation at the Super Elite level of football. Participation at the U21 level was the strongest, most consistent predictor of Super Elite level participation. U17 participation was found to be either an insignificant or a negative predictor of subsequent participation in international football. The effect of U19 participation on later participation was partly significant, but weaker than the effect of U21 participation, and depended on the national context and the playing positions of the athletes. When looking at the effect of different youth career types, careers involving U21 international experience were the strongest predictors of later careers as Super Elite athletes. National governing bodies that want to ensure success in talent identification and development should therefore consider focusing fewer resources on youth international competitions in age categories before adulthood. A total of 1,482 players who had national football team experience at either the U17, U19, U21, or senior levels were included in our studies.

Relative age effect in French alpine skiing: Problem and solution

This study aims to identify the potential bias of the relative age effect (RAE) in French alpine skiers and to propose a mathematical correction adjustment for such a bias. All performances and birthdates of skiers on the national and international circuit were collected from the 2004 up to 2019. A goodness-of-fit chi-square test and the residuals were used to study the distribution of birth trimesters in youth competitors. A linear relationship between the distribution of performances and the months obtains a calibration coefficient allowing to rebalance the performance by considering the effect of RAE. Individuals born at the beginning of the year are over-represented in the elite young selections in all disciplines for both genders. A coefficient based on the relationship between month of birth and performance adjusts individual performance and cancels out the effect of RAE. The results show that RAE is present in French alpine skiing. We present a method allowing to consider the effect of the RAE in the performances realized in each gender and discipline. This method allows coaches to have a more objective opinion on performance and to reduce selection bias.

Small Relative Age Effect Appears in Professional Female Italian Team Sports

The relative age effect (RAE) concerns those (dis)advantages and outcomes resulting from an interaction between the dates of selection and birthdates. Although this phenomenon is well known in a male context, limited data are available in female sports. Thus, the aim of this study was to quantify the prevalence and magnitude of the RAE in a female Italian context at the professional level in basketball, soccer, and volleyball. A total of 1535 birthdates of elite senior players were analyzed overall and separately between early and late career stages. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests were applied to investigate the RAE in each sport. An asymmetry in birthdates was observed in all sports (Crammer's V ranged = 0.10-0.12). Players born close to the beginning of the year were 1.62 and 1.61 times more likely to reach first and second Italian divisions of soccer and volleyball, respectively, than those born in the last part of the year. A small over-representation of female athletes born close to the beginning of the year is evident at the senior professional level in all Italian investigated team sports. In soccer, this trend was more evident in the first stage of a senior career.

Corrective procedures remove relative age effect from world-class junior sprinters

This retrospective study investigated whether corrective adjustment procedures can remove the relative age effect (RAE) from world-class junior sprinters at the beginning of their career. A total of 2,918 male and 3,029 female athletes competing in sprint races (100 m, 200 m, and 400 m) of the World Athletics lists between 2000 and 2018 were considered. Longitudinal quadratic trendline equations across ages 16-25 yrs were calculated considering athletes' exact age and respective performance. Corrective adjustment calculations from the estimated longitudinal quadratic equations were applied at 16 yrs and 17 yrs. RAE was investigated for the whole sample and top-level athletes (i.e., first Top50 and Top100) considering the uncorrected and corrected performance. Moderate to large RAE was observed in Top50 and Top100 at 16 yrs. Differently, a lower RAE was observed at 17 yrs. When re-examining the data using the corrective adjustment calculations, the RAE disappeared in all sprint events and both genders at 16 yrs, while a more equal distribution was observed at 17 yrs. Corrective adjustment procedures can remove or at least reduce the RAE in world-class sprinters. Applying simple equations based on exact age might improve the accuracy of performance evaluation and talent identification in international track and field sprint competitions.

Being a top swimmer during the early career is not a prerequisite for success: A study on sprinter strokes

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the junior-to-senior successful transition rate in sprint swimming events in elite European performers.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of publicly available competition data collected between 2004 and 2019.

METHODS

The yearly performance of 6631 European swimmers (females = 41.8% of the sample) competing in 50 and 100 m freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were included in the analysis. The junior-to-senior transition rate was determined as the number of elite junior athletes who maintained their elite status in adulthood. To investigate how the definition of elite may affect the calculation of the transition rate, we operationally defined elite athletes as those ranked in the all-time top 10, 25, 50, and 100 in their category. We also calculated the correlation between junior and senior performances.

RESULTS

The average transition rates ranged, depending on the age of reference, from 10 to 26% in males and from 23 to 33% in females. The transition rate for the top 100 junior swimmers was greater than that for the top 10 swimmers. In general, swimmers who swam 50 m showed a slightly lower transition rate compared with those that swam 100 m. Depending on the age of reference, low-to-moderate correlations were observed between junior and senior peak performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Most elite junior athletes did not maintain the elite level in adulthood. Except for athletes in the last year of the junior category (18 years for males and 17 years for females), junior performances were poorly correlated with senior performances.