Recent Sea-Level Contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

Navigating sustainable horizons: exploring the dynamics of financial stability, green growth, renewable energy, technological innovation, financial inclusion, and soft infrastructure in shaping sustainable development

This paper examines sustainable development, which employs an integrated approach to tackle environmental, social, and economic challenges. It provides a theoretical underpinning by examining sustainable development's inception, fundamental tenets, and conceptual structures. This study highlights the interdependence of social equity, economic prosperity, and environmental conservation, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach. Quantitative methodology is utilized in this study, and the dependent variable is sustainable development. Financial risk, green growth, technological innovation, renewable energy, financial inclusion, and soft infrastructure are all independent variables. The analysis is predicated on secondary data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and World Development Indicators databases spanning 2004 to 2019. An entropy-weighted method used for the green growth index is a metric that enhances the precision of variable indicators. Cointegration, correlation, VIF, cross-sectional dependency, and stationarity tests are among the diagnostic tests that inform the selection of methods for the panel data set. It is determined that fully modified ordinary least squares is the suitable technique. The findings suggest statistically significant positive correlations among greenhouse gases, financial inclusion, and soft infrastructure. Conversely, significant negative correlations exist between financial risk, green growth, renewable energy, and technological innovation. An estimated 55% long-run variance is present. The study's key finding is that financial risk has an adverse effect on sustainable development, while an impactful relationship where increased green growth is linked to decreased GHG emissions. This association is notably significant. Results show that renewable energy has a negative coefficient and significant negative impact on greenhouse gases, showing an active relation to enhancing sustainable development. In contrast, financial inclusion has a significant positive effect on sustainable development. The implications imply that providing incentives to institutions engaged in alternative energy, precisely renewable sources, could positively impact the environment. Government policies and funding regulations oriented toward sustainable development are indispensable for environmental sustainability. Government policies and incentives are pivotal in advancing an environmentally conscious and sustainable future. This study's contribution lies in elucidating the positive correlation between government interventions and promoting renewable energy adoption, thereby paving the way for a greener tomorrow.

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

June–July Temperature Reconstruction of Kashmir Valley from Tree Rings of Himalayan Pindrow Fir

The Himalaya is one of the major mountain ecosystems that is most likely to be impacted by climate change. The main drawback in understanding climate change in the remote Himalayan ecosystems is the lack of long-term instrumental climate records. Reconstructing past climates from tree-rings offers a useful proxy for adding data to the instrumental climate records. In this study, climatically sensitive tree-rings of Himalayan fir (Abies pindrow) were used for reconstruction of mean June–July temperatures of Kashmir valley. Total ring-width chronology was built from 60 tree-ring cores growing near the higher altitudinal limits of the species. The radial growth showed a strong positive response to growing season temperature. The strong response of site chronology to mean June–July temperatures was used for reconstruction purposes. Mean June–July temperatures of Kashmir valley were reconstructed since 1773 from residual site chronology. Though the reconstruction did not show any strong long-term trend, on a centennial-scale, 20th-century summers were the warmest with a mean annual summer temperature of 22.99 °C. Seven of the warmest years and five of the warmest decades were seen in the 20th century. The reconstruction for 1773–2012 showed 23 extreme hot summers above the hot threshold of a 23.47 °C mean temperature and 19 extreme cold years below the cold threshold of a 22.46 °C mean summer temperature. The cold years in the reconstruction did not coincide with known volcanic eruptions. This reconstruction will help in providing a better understanding of regional climate change.

A new sea-level record for the Neogene/Quaternary boundary reveals transition to a more stable East Antarctic Ice Sheet

Sea-level rise resulting from the instability of polar continental ice sheets represents a major socioeconomic hazard arising from anthropogenic warming, but the response of the largest component of Earth's cryosphere, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), to global warming is poorly understood. Here we present a detailed record of North Atlantic deep-ocean temperature, global sea-level, and ice-volume change for ∼2.75 to 2.4 Ma ago, when atmospheric partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) ranged from present-day (>400 parts per million volume, ppmv) to preindustrial (<280 ppmv) values. Our data reveal clear glacial-interglacial cycles in global ice volume and sea level largely driven by the growth and decay of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. Yet, sea-level values during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 101 (∼2.55 Ma) also signal substantial melting of the EAIS, and peak sea levels during MIS G7 (∼2.75 Ma) and, perhaps, MIS G1 (∼2.63 Ma) are also suggestive of EAIS instability. During the succeeding glacial-interglacial cycles (MIS 100 to 95), sea levels were distinctly lower than before, strongly suggesting a link between greater stability of the EAIS and increased land-ice volumes in the Northern Hemisphere. We propose that lower sea levels driven by ice-sheet growth in the Northern Hemisphere decreased EAIS susceptibility to ocean melting. Our findings have implications for future EAIS vulnerability to a rapidly warming world.

Automatic Extraction of Supraglacial Lakes in Southwest Greenland during the 2014–2018 Melt Seasons Based on Convolutional Neural Network

The mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has implications for global sea level rise, and surface meltwater is an important factor that affects the mass balance. Supraglacial lakes (SGLs), which are representative and identifiable hydrologic features of surface meltwater on GrIS, are a means of assessing surface ablation temporally and spatially. In this study, we have developed a robust method to automatically extract SGLs by testing the widely distributed SGLs area—in southwest Greenland (68°00′ N–70°00′ N, 48°00′ W–51°30′ W), and documented their dynamics from 2014 to 2018 using Landsat 8 OLI images. This method identifies water using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and then extracts SGLs with morphological and geometrical algorithms. CNN combines spectral and spatial features and shows better water identification results than the widely used adaptive thresholding method (Otsu), and two machine learning methods (Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM)). Our results show that the total SGLs area varied between 158 and 393 km2 during 2014 to 2018; the area increased from 2014 to 2015, then decreased and reached the lowest point (158.73 km2) in 2018, when the most limited surface melting was observed. SGLs were most active during the melt season in 2015 with a quantity of 700 and a total area of 393.36 km2. The largest individual lake developed in 2016, with an area of 9.30 km2. As for the elevation, SGLs were most active in the area, with the elevation ranging from 1000 to 1500 m above sea level, and SGLs in 2016 were distributed at higher elevations than in other years. Our work proposes a method to extract SGLs accurately and efficiently. More importantly, this study is expected to provide data support to other studies monitoring the surface hydrological system and mass balance of the GrIS.

Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and Mass

Fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation and mass occur over a variety of time scales, owing to changes in snowfall and ice flow. Here we disentangle these signals by combining 25 years of satellite radar altimeter observations and a regional climate model. From these measurements, patterns of change that are strongly associated with glaciological events emerge. While the majority of the ice sheet has remained stable, 24% of West Antarctica is now in a state of dynamical imbalance. Thinning of the Pine Island and Thwaites glacier basins reaches 122 m in places, and their rates of ice loss are now five times greater than at the start of our survey. By partitioning elevation changes into areas of snow and ice variability, we estimate that East and West Antarctica have contributed -1.1 ± 0.4 and +5.7 ± 0.8 mm to global sea level between 1992 and 2017.

Using TanDEM-X Pursuit Monostatic Observations with a Large Perpendicular Baseline to Extract Glacial Topography

Space-based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) applications have been widely used to monitor the cryosphere over past decades. Owing to temporal decorrelation, interferometric coherence often severely degrades on fast moving glaciers. TanDEM-X observations can overcome the temporal decorrelation because of their simultaneous measurements by two satellite constellations. In this study, we used the TanDEM-X pursuit monostatic mode with large baseline formation following a scientific phase timeline to develop highly precise topographic elevation models of the Petermann Glacier of Northwest Greenland. The large baseline provided the advantage of extracting topographic information over low relief areas, such as the surface of a glacier. As expected, coherent interferometric phases (>0.8) were well maintained over the glaciers, despite their fast movement, due to the nearly simultaneous TanDEM-X measurements. The height ambiguity, which was defined as the altitude difference corresponding to a 2π phase change of the flattened interferogram, of the dataset was 10.63 m, which was favorable for extracting topography in a low relief region. We validated the TanDEM-X derived glacial topography by comparing it to the SAR/Interferometric radar altimeter observations acquired by CryoSat-2 and the IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper laser altimeter measurements. Both observations showed very good correlation within a few meters of the offsets (−12.5~−3.1 m), with respect to the derived glacial topography. Routine TanDEM-X observations will be very useful to better understand the dynamics of glacial movements and topographic change.

Physical applications of GPS geodesy: a review

Geodesy, the oldest science, has become an important discipline in the geosciences, in large part by enhancing Global Positioning System (GPS) capabilities over the last 35 years well beyond the satellite constellation's original design. The ability of GPS geodesy to estimate 3D positions with millimeter-level precision with respect to a global terrestrial reference frame has contributed to significant advances in geophysics, seismology, atmospheric science, hydrology, and natural hazard science. Monitoring the changes in the positions or trajectories of GPS instruments on the Earth's land and water surfaces, in the atmosphere, or in space, is important for both theory and applications, from an improved understanding of tectonic and magmatic processes to developing systems for mitigating the impact of natural hazards on society and the environment. Besides accurate positioning, all disturbances in the propagation of the transmitted GPS radio signals from satellite to receiver are mined for information, from troposphere and ionosphere delays for weather, climate, and natural hazard applications, to disturbances in the signals due to multipath reflections from the solid ground, water, and ice for environmental applications. We review the relevant concepts of geodetic theory, data analysis, and physical modeling for a myriad of processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and discuss the extensive global infrastructure that has been built to support GPS geodesy consisting of thousands of continuously operating stations. We also discuss the integration of heterogeneous and complementary data sets from geodesy, seismology, and geology, focusing on crustal deformation applications and early warning systems for natural hazards.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data-provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

Impacts of climate-change-driven sea level rise on intertidal rocky reef habitats will be variable and site specific

Intertidal rocky reefs are complex and rich ecosystems that are vulnerable to even the smallest fluctuations in sea level. We modelled habitat loss associated with sea level rise for intertidal rocky reefs using GIS, high-resolution digital imagery, and LIDAR technology at fine-scale resolution (0.1 m per pixel). We used projected sea levels of +0.3 m, +0.5 m and +1.0 m above current Mean Low Tide Level (0.4 m). Habitat loss and changes were analysed for each scenario for five headlands in the Solitary Islands Marine Park (SIMP), Australia. The results indicate that changes to habitat extent will be variable across different shores and will not necessarily result in net loss of area for some habitats. In addition, habitat modification will not follow a regular pattern over the projected sea levels. Two of the headlands included in the study currently have the maximum level of protection within the SIMP. However, these headlands are likely to lose much of the habitat known to support biodiverse assemblages and may not continue to be suitable sanctuaries into the future. The fine-scale approach taken in this study thus provides a protocol not only for modelling habitat modification but also for future proofing conservation measures under a scenario of changing sea levels.

Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of Antarctic sea-level contribution

Recent estimates of Antarctica's present-day rate of ice-mass contribution to changes in sea level range from 31 gigatonnes a year (Gt yr(-1); ref. 1) to 246 Gt yr(-1) (ref. 2), a range that cannot be reconciled within formal errors. Time-varying rates of mass loss contribute to this, but substantial technique-specific systematic errors also exist. In particular, estimates of secular ice-mass change derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data are dominated by significant uncertainty in the accuracy of models of mass change due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Here we adopt a new model of GIA, developed from geological constraints, which produces GIA rates systematically lower than those of previous models, and an improved fit to independent uplift data. After applying the model to 99 months (from August 2002 to December 2010) of GRACE data, we estimate a continent-wide ice-mass change of -69 ± 18 Gt yr(-1) (+0.19 ± 0.05 mm yr(-1) sea-level equivalent). This is about a third to a half of the most recently published GRACE estimates, which cover a similar time period but are based on older GIA models. Plausible GIA model uncertainties, and errors relating to removing longitudinal GRACE artefacts ('destriping'), confine our estimate to the range -126 Gt yr(-1) to -29 Gt yr(-1) (0.08-0.35 mm yr(-1) sea-level equivalent). We resolve 26 independent drainage basins and find that Antarctic mass loss, and its acceleration, is concentrated in basins along the Amundsen Sea coast. Outside this region, we find that West Antarctica is nearly in balance and that East Antarctica is gaining substantial mass.

Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction

In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

Shifts in coastal Antarctic marine microbial communities during and after melt water-related surface stratification

Antarctic coastal waters undergo major physical alterations during summer. Increased temperatures induce sea-ice melting and glacial melt water input, leading to strong stratification of the upper water column. We investigated the composition of micro-eukaryotic and bacterial communities in Ryder Bay, Antarctic Peninsula, during and after summertime melt water stratification, applying community fingerprinting (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) and sequencing analysis of partial 18S and 16S rRNA genes. Community fingerprinting of the eukaryotic community revealed two major patterns, coinciding with a period of melt water stratification, followed by a period characterized by regular wind-induced breakdown of surface stratification. During the first stratified period, we observed depth-related differences in eukaryotic fingerprints while differences in bacterial fingerprints were weak. Wind-induced breakdown of the melt water layer caused a shift in the eukaryotic community from an Actinocyclus sp.- to a Thalassiosira sp.-dominated community. In addition, a distinct transition in the bacterial community was found, but with a few days' delay, suggesting a response to the changes in the eukaryotic community rather than to the mixing event itself. Sequence analysis revealed a shift from an Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria to a Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides-dominated community under mixed conditions. Our results show that melt water stratification and the transition to nonstabilized Antarctic surface waters may have an impact not only on micro-eukaryotic but also bacterial community composition.

Sea ice protects the embryos of the Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri from oxidative damage due to naturally enhanced levels of UV-B radiation

The ‘ozone hole’ has caused an increase in ultraviolet B radiation (UV-B, 280–320 nm) penetrating Antarctic coastal marine ecosystems, however the direct effect of this enhanced UV-B on pelagic organisms remains unclear. Oxidative stress, the in vivo production of reactive oxygen species to levels high enough to overcome anti-oxidant defences, is a key outcome of exposure to solar radiation, yet to date few studies have examined this physiological response in Antarctic marine species in situ or in direct relation to the ozone hole. To assess the biological effects of UV-B, in situ experiments were conducted at Cape Armitage in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica (77.06°S, 164.42°E) on the common Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri Meissner (Echinoidea) over two consecutive 4-day periods in the spring of 2008 (26–30 October and 1–5 November). The presence of the ozone hole, and a corresponding increase in UV-B exposure, resulted in unequivocal increases in oxidative damage to lipids and proteins, and developmental abnormality in embryos of S. neumayeri growing in open waters. Results also indicate that embryos have only a limited capacity to increase the activities of protective antioxidant enzymes, but not to levels sufficient to prevent severe oxidative damage from occurring. Importantly, results show that the effect of the ozone hole is largely mitigated by sea ice coverage. The present findings suggest that the coincidence of reduced stratospheric ozone and a reduction in sea ice coverage may produce a situation in which significant damage to Antarctic marine ecosystems may occur.

Contemporary sea level rise

Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

Diversity and dynamics of Antarctic marine microbial eukaryotes under manipulated environmental UV radiation

In the light of the predicted global climate change, it is essential that the status and diversity of polar microbial communities is described and understood. In the present study, molecular tools were used to investigate the marine eukaryotic communities of Prydz Bay, Eastern Antarctica, from November 2002 to January 2003. Additionally, we conducted four series of minicosm experiments, where natural Prydz Bay communities were incubated under six different irradiation regimes, in order to investigate the effects of natural UV radiation on marine microbial eukaryotes. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and 18S rRNA gene sequencing revealed a eukaryotic Shannon diversity index averaging 2.26 and 2.12, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis of 472 sequenced clones revealed 47 phylotypes, belonging to the Dinophyceae, Stramenopiles, Choanoflagellidae, Ciliophora, Cercozoa and Metazoa. Throughout the studied period, three communities were distinguished: a postwinter/early spring community comprising dinoflagellates, ciliates, cercozoans, stramenopiles, viridiplantae, haptophytes and metazoans; a dinoflagellate-dominated community; and a diatom-dominated community that developed after sea ice breakup. DGGE analysis showed that size fraction and time had a strong shaping effect on the community composition; however, a significant contribution of natural UV irradiance towards microeukaryotic community composition could not be detected. Overall, dinoflagellates dominated our samples and their diversity suggests that they fulfill an important role in Antarctic coastal marine ecosystems preceding ice breakup as well as between phytoplankton bloom events.

Empirical Retrieval of Surface Melt Magnitude from Coupled MODIS Optical and Thermal Measurements over the Greenland Ice Sheet during the 2001 Ablation Season

Accelerated ice flow near the equilibrium line of west-central Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been attributed to an increase in infiltrated surface melt water as a response to climate warming. The assessment of surface melting events must be more than the detection of melt onset or extent. Retrieval of surface melt magnitude is necessary to improve understanding of ice sheet flow and surface melt coupling. In this paper, we report on a new technique to quantify the magnitude of surface melt. Cloud-free dates of June 10, July 5, 7, 9, and 11, 2001 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily reflectance Band 5 (1.230-1.250μm) and surface temperature images rescaled to 1km over western Greenland were used in the retrieval algorithm. An optical-thermal feature space partitioned as a function of melt magnitude was derived using a one-dimensional thermal snowmelt model (SNTHERM89). SNTHERM89 was forced by hourly meteorological data from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) at reference sites spanning dry snow, percolation, and wet snow zones in the Jakobshavn drainage basin in western GIS. Melt magnitude or effective melt (E-melt) was derived for satellite composite periods covering May, June, and July displaying low fractions (0-1%) at elevations greater than 2500m and fractions at or greater than 15% at elevations lower than 1000m assessed for only the upper 5 cm of the snow surface. Validation of E-melt involved comparison of intensity to dry and wet zones determined from QSCAT backscatter. Higher intensities (> 8%) were distributed in wet snow zones, while lower intensities were grouped in dry zones at a first order accuracy of ∼ ±2%.

Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O. It can also be a sink for CO(2) through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH(4) consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N(2)O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH(4) and N(2)O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint.

Glaciers Dominate Eustatic Sea-Level Rise in the 21st Century

Ice loss to the sea currently accounts for virtually all of the sea-level rise that is not attributable to ocean warming, and about 60% of the ice loss is from glaciers and ice caps rather than from the two ice sheets. The contribution of these smaller glaciers has accelerated over the past decade, in part due to marked thinning and retreat of marine-terminating glaciers associated with a dynamic instability that is generally not considered in mass-balance and climate modeling. This acceleration of glacier melt may cause 0.1 to 0.25 meter of additional sea-level rise by 2100.