Cross-talk between antioxidant production and secondary metabolite biosynthesis under combined effects of ozone stress and nitrogen amendments: A case study of lemongrass

The present experiment was done to study the interactive effects of soil nitrogen (N) amendments and elevated ozone (O3) (N-O3) on a medicinal plant, lemongrass [Cymbopogon flexuosus (Steud.) (Wats.)]. The experiment used two doses of inorganic soil nitrogen (N1, recommended and N2, 1.5-times recommended dose) in open-top chambers under ambient and elevated (ambient + 15 ppb and ambient + 30 ppb) O3 conditions. To analyze various characteristics, samples were collected at 45 and 90 days after transplantation (DAT). Additionally, at 110 days after transplantation (DAT), the metabolite contents of the leaves and essential oils were analyzed. The present study aims to investigate the mechanistic approach involving the crosstalk between antioxidant production and secondary metabolite biosynthesis in lemongrass upon N-O3 interactions. The present experiment showed that N amendments can be an efficient measure to manage O3 injury in plants, along with ensuring a balance between primary and secondary metabolic pathways, thus sustaining the plant defense and production of bioactive compounds, simultaneously. Under N-O3, not only the Halliwell asada pathway was stimulated resulting in the increased activities and concentrations of antioxidant pools; the shikimate, phenylpropanoid and mevalonic acid pathways were also invigorated, producing more number and contents of secondary metabolites (SMs), compared with plants that were not treated with N doses. This study suggests that soil nitrogen amendments will improve the therapeutic qualities of lemongrass, along with the strengthening of its antioxidant machinery, upon exposure to O3 stress.

Compensating atmospheric adjustments reduce the volcanic forcing from Hunga stratospheric water vapor enhancement

The 2022 eruption of the Hunga submarine volcano injected an unprecedented volume of water vapor into the stratosphere, presenting a unique, natural experiment for ascertaining the influence of stratospheric water vapor within the global radiation budget. This study examines the radiative forcings of the Hunga stratospheric water vapor enhancement, comparing stratosphere-adjusted radiative forcing derived from offline methods to an effective radiative forcing derived from Earth System Model simulations. Assuming a uniform 2 parts per million mass mixing ratio increase of water vapor in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, we estimated the instantaneous, stratosphere-adjusted, and overall effective radiative forcing to be -0.04, 0.08, and 0.05 W m-2, respectively. The lower magnitude of the positive volcanic stratospheric water vapor effective radiative forcing is due to compensating effects from atmospheric adjustments. Ensemble simulations of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model suggest a surface warming of 0.05 K, affirming a limited influence on global mean surface temperature from the volcanic stratospheric water vapor injection.

Distribution and sea-to-air fluxes of nitrous oxide and methane from a seasonally hypoxic coastal zone in the southeastern Arabian Sea

The seasonal variability, pathways, and sea-to-air fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) in the coastal environment, where coastal upwelling and mudbanks co-exist are presented based on the monthly time-series measurements from November 2021 to December 2022. Upwelling-driven hypoxic water's shoreward propagation and persistence were the major factors controlling the N2O concentrations, while the freshwater influx and sedimentary fluxes modulate CH4 concentrations. The N2O concentrations were high during the southwest monsoon (up to 35 nM; 19 ± 8 nM)), followed by spring inter-monsoon (up to 19 nM; 10 ± 5 nM), and lowest during the northeast monsoon (up to 13 nM; 8 ± 2 nM), whereas the CH4 levels were high during the spring inter-monsoon (8.4 to 65 nM), followed by southwest monsoon (6.8 to 53.1 nM) and relatively lower concentrations during the northeast monsoon (3.3 to 32.6 nM). The positive correlations of excess N2O with Apparent Oxygen Utilisation (AOU) and the sum of nitrate and nitrite (NOx) indicate that nitrification is the primary source of N2O in the mudbank regime. The negative correlation of CH4 concentrations with salinity indicates considerable input of CH4 through freshwater influx. CH4 exhibited a highly significant positive correlation with Chlorophyll-a throughout the study period. Furthermore, it displayed a statistically significant positive correlation with phosphate (PO43-) during the northeast monsoon while a strong negative correlation with PO43- during the spring inter-monsoon, pointing towards the role of aerobic CH4 production pathways in the mudbank regime. N2O and CH4 exhibited a contrasting seasonal pattern of sea-to-air fluxes, characterised by the highest N2O fluxes during the southwest monsoon (hypoxia) (13 ± 10 μM m-2 d-1), followed by spring inter-monsoon (12 ± 16 μM m-2 d-1), and the lowest during the northeast monsoon (0.6 ± 3 μM m-2 d-1). Conversely, the highest sea-to-air fluxes of CH4 were noticed during the spring inter-monsoon (74 ± 56 μM m-2 d-1), followed by the southwest monsoon (45 ± 35 μM m-2 d-1), and the lowest values during the northeast monsoon (19 ± 16 μM m-2d-1). Long-term time-series measurements will be invaluable in understanding the longer-term impacts of climate-driven variability on marine biogeochemical cycles in dynamic nearshore systems.

Why the lower stratosphere cools when the troposphere warms

Observational data have long suggested that in the tropics, when the troposphere locally warms, the lower stratosphere locally cools. Here, the observed anti-correlation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature is confirmed-the lower stratosphere cools by approximately 2 degrees per degree of warming in the mid-troposphere. This anti-correlation is explained through a recently proposed theory holding that there is a quasi-balanced response of the stratosphere to tropospheric heating [J. Lin, K. Emanuel, Tropospheric thermal forcing of the stratosphere through quasi-balanced dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci. (2024).]. The local-scale anti-correlation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature also holds when considering climate change-where the troposphere has been anomalously warming relative to the zonal mean, the lower stratosphere has been anomalously cooling, and vice versa. This suggests that zonally asymmetries in tropospheric temperature trends will be reflected in that of the lower stratospheric temperature trends. The zonally asymmetric trends are also found to be comparable in magnitude to the mean temperature trends in the lower stratosphere, highlighting the importance of the pattern of warming. The results and proposed theory suggest that in addition to forcing via wave-dissipation, the lower stratosphere can also be subject to direct forcing by the troposphere, through quasi-steady, quasi-balanced dynamics.

Considering intentional stratospheric dehydration for climate benefits

We introduce a climate intervention strategy focused on decreasing water vapor (WV) concentrations near the tropopause and in the stratosphere to increase outbound longwave radiation. The mechanism is the targeted injection of ice-nucleating particles (INP) in air supersaturated with respect to ice at high altitudes in the tropical entryway to the stratosphere. Ice formation in this region is a critical control of stratospheric WV. Recent airborne in situ data indicate that targeting only a small fraction of air parcels in the region would be sufficient to achieve substantial removal of water. This "intentional stratospheric dehydration" (ISD) strategy would not counteract a large fraction of the forcing from carbon dioxide but may contribute to a portfolio of climate interventions by acting with different time and length scales of impact and risk than other interventions that are already under consideration. We outline the idea, its plausibility, technical hurdles, and side effects to be considered.

Recent decreasing precipitation and snowmelt reduce the floods around the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

Understanding and managing mountain floods has become increasingly urgent, with global climate change and human activities exacerbating flood risk. However, flood research in Tianshan Mountains, a typical flood-prone mountainous region in China, is still insufficient. Here, we customized a set of flood research methods based on rainstorms and extreme snowmelt events, including a new flood counting method that comprehensively considered the frequency and magnitude of floods and the methods of flood classification and change attribution. We found that floods around the Chinese Tianshan Mountains (CTM) increased from 2014 to 2016 but decreased rapidly from 2016 to 2021, with storm floods, snowmelt floods, and mixed floods accounting for 38.3 %, 26.5 %, and 34.6 % of total flood events, respectively. The variation of floods was most significantly correlated with the average and extreme precipitation, followed by the temperature-driven average snowmelt change. Furthermore, atmospheric circulation anomalies and water vapor input from the western boundary of CTM caused decreasing precipitation and storm floods. Meanwhile, the warming hiatus also greatly impacted declining flood frequency. Notably, flood frequency is projected to rebound soon because of the rising precipitation and temperature, infrastructure aging, and reservoir abandonment, implying the present flood decline unsustainable. Our research develops a strategy to investigate short-term flood anomalies under climate oscillations around the CTM, providing insights into flood research and prevention in global mountainous regions.

Stratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research.

Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K-1. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv K-1) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.

Optical observations of thunderstorms from the International Space Station: recent results and perspectives

The International Space Station (ISS) is in the lowest available orbit at ~400 km altitude, bringing instruments as close to the atmosphere as possible from the vantage point of space. The orbit inclination is 51.6°, which brings the ISS over all the low- and mid-latitude regions of the Earth and at all local times. It is an ideal platform to observe deep convection and electrification of thunderstorms, taken advantage of by the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Atmosphere Space Interaction Monitor (ASIM) experiments. In the coming years, meteorological satellites in geostationary orbit (~36,000 km altitude) will provide sophisticated cloud and lightning observations with almost complete coverage of the Earth's thunderstorm regions. In addition, Earth-observing satellite instruments in geostationary- and low-Earth orbit (LEO) will measure more atmospheric parameters at a higher resolution than we know today. The new infrastructure in space offers an opportunity to advance our understanding of the role of thunderstorms in atmospheric dynamics and climate change. Here, we discuss how observations from the ISS or other LEO platforms with instruments that view the atmosphere at slanted angles can complement the measurements from primarily nadir-oriented instruments of present and planned missions. We suggest that the slanted viewing geometry from LEO may resolve the altitude of electrical activity and the cloud structure where they occur, with implications for modelling thunderstorms' effects on the atmosphere's radiative properties and climate balance.

Resolving the 21st century temperature trends of the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere with satellite observations

Historically, observational information about atmospheric temperature has been limited due to a lack of suitable measurements. Recent advances in satellite observations provide new insight into the fine structure of the free atmosphere, with the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere comprising essential components of the climate system. This is a prerequisite for understanding the complex processes of this part of the atmosphere, which is also known to have a large impact on surface climate. With unprecedented resolution, latest climate observations reveal a dramatic warming of the atmosphere. The tropical upper troposphere has already warmed about 1 K during the first two decades of the 21st century. The tropospheric warming extends into the lower stratosphere in the tropics and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes, forming a prominent hemispheric asymmetry in the temperature trend structure. Together with seasonal trend patterns in the stratosphere, this indicates a possible change in stratospheric circulation.

Water vapor injection into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai

Large volcanic eruptions, although rare events, can influence the chemistry and the dynamics of the stratosphere for several years after the eruption. Here we show that the eruption of the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai on 15 January 2022 injected at least 50 teragrams of water vapor directly into the stratosphere. This event raised the amount of water vapor in the developing stratospheric plume by several orders of magnitude and possibly increased the amount of global stratospheric water vapor by more than 5%. This extraordinary eruption may have initiated an atmospheric response different from that of previous well-studied large volcanic eruptions.

Spatiotemporal Variation of Land Surface Temperature in Henan Province of China from 2003 to 2021

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key parameter closely related to various land surface processes and surface-atmosphere interactions. Analysis of spatiotemporal variation of time-series LST may provide useful information to understand eco-climatic characteristics. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of LST and its trend characteristics in Henan Province were examined based on MODIS LST products from 2003 to 2021. In addition, the influences of land cover types, Nighttime Light data (NTL) and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) on LST variation were analyzed. The results indicated that: (i) The LST showed slight and rapid decreasing trend for 2004–2010 and 2018–2020, respectively, whereas an obvious increasing and slight increasing trend occurred for 2010–2013 and 2014–2018. In terms of spatial pattern, high-temperature, and sub-high-temperature were mainly distributed in the central part of the province with higher level of industrialization and urbanization at the annual, spring, summer, and daytime scales. While in fall, winter, and the nighttime, the spatial distribution of LST exhibited decreased trend from the southern part to the northern part of the province, the largest Standard Deviation (STD) was observed in summer. (ii) The interannual variation rate of LST was 0.08 °C/Y. The increasing trend mainly occurred in urban and built-up areas. At the seasonal scales, the rising rate decreased sequentially in the order of fall, winter, spring, and summer. In addition, the rising rate in the daytime was higher than that in the nighttime. (iii) LST increased along with the expansion of urban and built-up lands, except in winter. At the annual scales, 84.69% of areas with NTL data exhibited a positive correlation with LST, and NDMI in the western part with high elevation presented a significantly positive correlation to LST, while a significantly negative correlation occurred in urban and built-up areas. The cooling effect of NDMI on LST in the daytime was greater than that in the nighttime. In cropland areas, LST showed a non-significant correlation with NDMI at the annual scale, and a significantly negative correlation with NDMI in spring, summer, and fall. The influence mechanism of cropland on the variation of LST at different timescales needs to be further explored. These findings might provide some hints to understand climate change and its causes in the province.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Hydration of the Stratosphere

Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H₂O, SO₂, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO₂ and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H₂O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H₂O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H₂O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H₂O.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Hydration of the Stratosphere

Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H₂O, SO₂, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO₂ and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H₂O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H₂O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H₂O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H₂O.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Hydration of the Stratosphere

Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H₂O, SO₂, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO₂ and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H₂O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H₂O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H₂O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H₂O.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Hydration of the Stratosphere

Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H₂O, SO₂, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO₂ and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H₂O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H₂O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H₂O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H₂O.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Hydration of the Stratosphere

Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H₂O, SO₂, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO₂ and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H₂O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H₂O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H₂O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H₂O.

Large Amounts of Water Vapor Were Injected into the Stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai Volcano Eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (Tonga) injected only small amount of SO2 into the stratosphere, while our analyses of the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements show that a massive amount of water vapor was directly injected into the stratosphere by the Tonga eruption, which is probably due to its submarine volcanic activity. The Tonga eruption injected a total amount of 139 ± 8 Tg of water vapor into the stratosphere and resulted in an increase of 8.9 ± 0.5% in the global stratospheric water vapor. Analyses also show that the uppermost altitude impacted by Tonga reached the 1 hPa level (~47.6 km). Additionally, the maximum hydration region for increased water vapor is at 38–17 hPa (~22.2–27 km), where the water vapor mixing ratio increased by 6–8 ppmv during the three months after the Tonga eruption. The enhanced stratospheric water vapor has great potential to influence the global radiation budget as well as ozone loss.

FENGYUN-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager Layered Precipitable Water Vapor Products’ Comprehensive Evaluation Based on Quality Control System

A physical retrieval algorithm has been developed for deriving the layered precipitable water vapor (LPWs) product from infrared radiances of the Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) onboard FengYun-4A (FY-4A), the first of the new generation of Chinese geostationary weather satellites (FengYun-4, or FY-4 Series). The FY-4A AGRI LPWs are evaluated with different types of reference datasets based on Quality Control System (QCS), including those from Himawari-8 AHI (Advanced Himawari Imager), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), Radiosonde, ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5), NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis and CMA (China Meteorological Administration) forecast product from global medium range numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. QCS is one of the important components of FY-4A ground segment, which mainly focuses on the satellite products’ evaluation and validation. It is found that the AGRI LPW product has a good agreement with different evaluating sources and the quality is favorable and stable. With the capability of frequent (5-min interval) observations over the East Asia and Western Pacific regions, the AGRI LPW products can be used to investigate the atmospheric temporal and spatial variations in the pre-landfall environment for typhoons. The QCS is a useful tool to monitor, evaluate, and validate the AGRI LPW products.

Review: The Effects of Supersonic Aviation on Ozone and Climate

When working towards regulation of supersonic aviation, a comprehensive understanding of the global climate effect of supersonic aviation is required in order to develop future regulatory issues. Such research requires a comprehensive overview of existing scientific literature having explored the climate effect of aviation. This review article provides an overview on earlier studies assessing the climate effects of supersonic aviation, comprising non-CO2 effects. An overview on the historical evaluation of research focussing on supersonic aviation and its environmental impacts is provided, followed by an overview on concepts explored and construction of emission inventories. Quantitative estimates provided for individual effects are presented and compared. Subsequently, regulatory issues related to supersonic transport are summarised. Finally, requirements for future studies, e.g., in emission scenario construction or numerical modelling of climate effects, are summarised and main conclusions discussed.

Hydraulic jump dynamics above supercell thunderstorms

[Figure: see text].

Convective hydration of the stratosphere

[Figure: see text].

A 22-Year Evaluation of Convection Reaching the Stratosphere Over the United States

Stratosphere-reaching moist convection can significantly alter the dynamics, chemistry, and climate of the Earth system. This study seeks to add to the emerging understanding of the frequency, depth, and stratospheric impact of such events using 22 years (1996-2017) of ground-based radar observations in the contiguous United States. While most prior studies identify such storms using the temperature lapse-rate tropopause (LRT) as a troposphere-stratosphere boundary, this study is the first to identify convection that reaches into stratospheric air below the LRT (tropopause depressions, excluding folds) as well. It is found that tropopause depression (TD) overshooting and LRT overshooting occur at similar frequency over the United States, with TD overshooting being more episodic in nature than LRT overshooting. TD overshooting is also found more often throughout the cooler months of the year, while LRT overshooting dominates all overshooting in the summer months. Stratospheric residence of overshoot material, as estimated using trajectory calculations driven by large-scale winds, suggests that the vast majority of TD overshoot material does not remain in the stratosphere within 5 days downstream and rarely impacts altitudes more than 1 km above the LRT. Conversely, the majority of LRT overshoot material remains in the stratosphere downstream and routinely impacts altitudes >1 and >2 km above the tropopause.

On the response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic forcing

Anthropogenic forcing of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (GHG) and ozone-depleting substances has provided an unintended test of the robustness of current understanding of the physics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere, that is, the stratosphere and mesosphere. We explore this topic by examining how well anthropogenic changes can be simulated by modern, comprehensive numerical models. Specifically, we discuss the simulations of trends in global mean temperature; the development of the ozone hole and its impact on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere, both in the stratosphere and troposphere; trends in the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation; and the response of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to increasing burdens of CO₂ . We find that, in most of these cases, numerical simulation is able to reproduce observed changes and provide physical insights into the relevant mechanisms. Simulation of the QBO is on a less firm footing. Although many numerical models can now generate realistic QBOs, future projections of its behavior under the increasing burdens of GHG are inconsistent and even contradictory.

Identifying Outflow Regions of North American Monsoon Anticyclone-Mediated Meridional Transport of Convectively Influenced Air Masses in the Lower Stratosphere

We analyzed the effect of the North American monsoon anticyclone (NAMA) on the meridional transport of summertime cross-tropopause convective outflow by applying a trajectory analysis to a climatology of convective overshooting tops (OTs) identified in GOES satellite images, which covers the domain from 29°S to 68°N and from 205°W to 1.25°W for the time period of May to September, 2013. From this analysis, we identify seasonal development of geographically distinct outflow regions of convectively influenced air masses (CIAMs) from the NAMA circulation to the global stratosphere and quantify the associated meridional displacement of CIAMs. We find that prior to the development of the NAMA, the majority of CIAMs exit the study area in a southeastern region between 5°N and 35°N at 45°W (75.5% in May). During July and August, when the NAMA is strongest, two additional outflow regions develop that constitute the majority of outflow: 68.1% in a northeastern region between 35°N and 60°N at 45°W and 13.4% in a southwestern region between 5°N and 35°N at 145°W. The shift in the location of most CIAM outflow from the pre-NAMA southeastern region to NAMA-dependent northeastern and southwestern regions corresponds to a change in average meridional displacement of CIAMs from 3.3° northward in May to 24.5° northward in July and August. Meridional transport of CIAMs through persistent outflow regions from the NAMA circulation to the global stratosphere has the potential to impact global stratospheric composition beyond convective source regions.

A 13-year Trajectory-Based Analysis of Convection-Driven Changes in Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere Composition Over the United States

Moist convection frequently reaches the tropopause and alters the distribution and concentration of radiatively important trace gases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), but the overall impact of convection on regional and global UTLS composition remains largely unknown. To improve understanding of convection-driven changes in water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO) in the UTLS, this study utilizes 13 years of observations of satellite-based trace gas profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite and convection from the operational network of ground-based weather radars in the United States. Locations with and without convection identified via radar are matched with downstream MLS observations through three-dimensional, kinematic forward trajectories, providing two populations of trace gas observations for analysis. These populations are further classified as belonging to extratropical or tropical environments based on the tropopause pressure at the MLS profile location. Extratropical regions are further separated by tropopause type (single or double), revealing differing impacts. Results show that convection typically moistens the UT by up to 300% and the LS by up to 100%, largely reduces O3 by up to 40%, and increases CO by up to 50%. Changes in H2O and O3 are robust, with LS O3 reduced more by convection within tropical environments, where the median concentration decrease is 34% at ~2 km above tropopause, compared to 24% in extratropical environments. Quantification of CO changes from convection is less reliable due to differences being near the MLS measurement precision and accuracy.

Assessment of Spectra of the Atmospheric Infrared Ultraspectral Sounder on GF-5 and Validation of Water Vapor Retrieval

Atmospheric Infrared Ultraspectral Sounder (AIUS) aboard the Chinese GaoFen-5 satellite was launched on 9 May 2018. It is the first hyperspectral occultation spectrometer in China. The spectral quality assessment of AIUS measurements at the full and representative spectral bands was presented by comparing the transmittance spectra of measurements with that of simulations. AIUS measurements agree well with simulations. Statistics show that more than 73% of the transmittance differences are within ±0.05 and more than 91% of the transmittance differences are within ±0.1. The spectral windows for O3, H2O, temperature, CO, CH4, and HCl were also analyzed. The comparison experiments indicate that AIUS data can provide reliable data for O3, H2O, temperature, CO, CH4, and HCl detection and dynamic monitoring. The H2O profiles were then retrieved from AIUS measurements, and the precision, resolution, and accuracy of the H2O profiles are discussed. The estimated precision is less than 1.3 ppmv (21%) below 57 km and about 0.9–2.4 ppmv (20–31%) at 60–90 km. The vertical resolution of H2O profiles is better than 5 km below 32 km and about 5–8 km at 35–85 km. Comparisons with MLS Level 2 products indicate that the mean H2O profiles of AIUS have a good agreement with those of MLS. The relative differences are mostly within ±10% at 16–75 km and about 10–15% at 16–20 km in 60∘–80∘ S. For 60∘–65 ∘ S in December, the relative differences are within ±5% between 22 km and 80 km. The H2O profiles retrieved from AIUS measurements are credible for scientific research.

Extreme Outliers in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Over North America Observed by MLS: Relation to Overshooting Convection Diagnosed From Colocated Aqua-MODIS Data

Convectively injected water vapor (H2O) in the North American (NA) summer lowermost stratosphere results in significant outliers in the 100-hPa H2O measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). MLS statistics from 15 years confirm that the NA region contains over 60% of global 100-hPa H2O > 12 ppmv, despite having only ∼1.8% of all MLS observations. A profile sampled in August 2019 stands out, withH 2 O = 26 . 3  ppmv, far exceeding the prior record and the median ∼4.5-ppmv abundance in NA. This particular outlier is associated with a large overshooting convective event (OCE) that spanned multiple U.S. states and persisted for several hours. Colocation of the MLS data over NA with cloud observations from Aqua's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reveals the unique character of this case, as only 2.3% of MLS profiles are as close to an OCE and only 0.024% of OCEs cover as large an area within a 500-km perimeter of a profile.

Evaluation of Water Vapor Radiative Effects Using GPS Data Series over Southwestern Europe

Water vapor radiative effects (WVRE) at surface in the long-wave (LW) and short-wave (SW) spectral ranges under cloud and aerosol free conditions are analyzed for seven stations in Spain over the 2007–2015 period. WVRE is calculated as the difference between the net flux obtained by two radiative transfer simulations; one with water vapor from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements and the other one without any water vapor (dry atmosphere). The WVRE in the LW ranges from 107.9 Wm 2 to 296.7 Wm − 2 , while in the SW it goes from − 64.9 Wm − 2 to − 6.0 Wm − 2 . The results show a clear seasonal cycle, which allows the classification of stations in three sub-regions. In general, for total (SW + LW) and LW WVRE, winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) values are lower than summer (JJA) and autumn (SON). However, in the case of SW WVRE, the weaker values are in winter and autumn, and the stronger ones in summer and spring. Positive trends for LW (and total) WVRE may partially explain the well-known increase of surface air temperatures in the study region. Additionally, negative trends for SW WVRE are especially remarkable, since they represent about a quarter of the contribution of aerosols to the strong brightening effect (increase of the SW radiation flux at surface associated with a reduction of the cloud cover and aerosol load) observed since the 2000s in the Iberian Peninsula, but with opposite sign, so it is suggested that water vapor could be partially masking the full magnitude of this brightening.

BeCOOL: A Balloon-Borne Microlidar System Designed for Cirrus and Convective Overshoot Monitoring

A balloon-borne microlidar has been built at LATMOS to monitor cirrus optical properties and convective overshoot topography during long duration flights in the lower tropical stratosphere. Weighting less than 7 kg in a reduced volume and consuming less than 10 W, it will be involved in the CNES-Strateole2 campaign. This instrument paves the way to the use of microlidar technology for planetary missions.

Identifying Source Regions and the Distribution of Cross-Tropopause Convective Outflow Over North America During the Warm Season

We analyzed the interaction between the North American monsoon anticyclone (NAMA) and summertime cross-tropopause convective outflow by applying a trajectory analysis to a climatology of convective overshooting tops (OTs) identified in GOES satellite images, which covers the domain from 29°S to 68°N and from 205 to 1.25°W for the time period of May through September 2013. With this analysis we identified seasonally, geographically, and altitude-dependent variability in NAMA strength and in cross-tropopause convection that control their interaction. We find that the NAMA has the strongest impact on the circulation of convectively influenced air masses in August. Over the entire time period examined the intertropical convergence zone contributes the majority of OTs with a larger fraction of total OTs at 370 K (on average 70%) than at 400 K (on average 52%). During August at 370 K, the convectively influenced air masses within the NAMA circulation, as determined by the trajectory analysis, are primarily sourced from the intertropical convergence zone (monthly average of 66.1%), while at 400 K the Sierra Madres and the Central United States combined constitute the dominant source region (monthly average of 44.1%, compared to 36.6% of the combined Intertropical Convergence Zone regions). When evaluating the impact of cross-tropopause convection on the composition and chemistry of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the effects of the NAMA on both the distribution of convective outflow and the residence time of convectively influenced air masses within the NAMA region must be considered.

Characterizing anthropogenic methane sources in the Houston and Barnett Shale areas of Texas using the isotopic signature δ13C in CH4

Methane (CH₄) is an important greenhouse gas with its mixing ratio increasing in the global atmosphere. Identifying fingerprints of CH₄ emissions is critical to understanding potential impacts of various anthropogenic sources in the Greater Houston area (GHA) and extensive natural gas operations in the Barnett Shale area (BSA) of Texas. Stable carbon isotope ratios of CH₄ (δ¹³C_CH4) has been proposed to be a useful technique for differentiating individual CH₄ sources. Measurements of CH₄ mixing ratios and δ¹³C_CH4 were sampled using a mobile laboratory equipped with cavity ring-down spectrometers (CRDS). Areal CH₄ distributions and the background δ¹³C_CH4 signature were obtained from filtered ambient signals; -47.0‰ (GHA) and - 48.5‰ (BSA) were calculated. The fingerprint of thirty-three anthropogenic sources in the two study areas were sampled with forty-four δ¹³C analyses conducted. Repeated measurements indicated the natural variation of δ¹³C_CH4 signatures of individual CH₄ sources. An unexpected massive CH₄ fugitive leak was detected near the San Jacinto River Fleet site in Houston exhibiting an δ¹³C_CH4 value around -42‰. Our results and findings demonstrate the utility of δ¹³C_CH4for facilitating emission inventories and atmospheric modeling.

Plasmonic heterodyne spectrometry for resolving the spectral signatures of ammonia over a 1-4.5 THz frequency range

We present a heterodyne terahertz spectrometry platform based on plasmonic photomixing, which enables the resolution of narrow spectral signatures of gases over a broad terahertz frequency range. This plasmonic heterodyne spectrometer replaces the terahertz mixer and local oscillator of conventional heterodyne spectrometers with a plasmonic photomixer and a heterodyning optical pump beam, respectively. The heterodyning optical pump beam is formed by two continuous-wave, wavelength-tunable lasers with a broadly tunable terahertz beat frequency. This broadly tunable terahertz beat frequency enables spectrometry over a broad bandwidth, which is not restricted by the bandwidth limitations of conventional terahertz mixers and local oscillators. We use this plasmonic heterodyne spectrometry platform to resolve the spectral signatures of ammonia over a 1-4.5 THz frequency range.

The Influence of Gravity Waves on Ice Saturation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer over Darwin, Australia

Gravity waves (GWs) in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) can help dehydrate the lower stratosphere through rapid cooling events, but observational studies of GWs in the TTL are limited. Using a long-term, high-resolution radiosonde temperature dataset, an atmospheric state classification technique, and wavelet analysis, we characterize temperature perturbations generated by GWs in the TTL over Darwin, Australia across eight atmospheric states. We find a peak in GW power just above the tropical tropopause and a climatological maximum during peak monsoon season. While accounting for a chronic negative temperature bias near the tropical tropopause, we estimate that, in the upper troposphere, GWs impose a 2 K temperature perturbation during non-monsoon states and a 3 K temperature perturbation during the monsoon states, with corresponding values of 5 K and 6 K in the upper TTL. A 3 K negative temperature perturbation will lead to significant perturbations in relative humidity with respect to ice, which has implications for environmental ice number concentrations and TTL cloud fraction.

Discrepancies in vegetation phenology trends and shift patterns in different climatic zones in middle and eastern Eurasia between 1982 and 2015

Changes in vegetation phenology directly reflect the response of vegetation growth to climate change. In this study, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset from 1982 to 2015, we extracted start date of vegetation growing season (SOS), end date of vegetation growing season (EOS), and length of vegetation growing season (LOS) in the middle and eastern Eurasia region and evaluated linear trends in SOS, EOS, and LOS for the entire study area, as well as for four climatic zones. The results show that the LOS has significantly increased by 0.27 days/year, mostly due to a significantly advanced SOS (-0.20 days/year) and a slightly delayed EOS (0.07 days/year) over the entire study area from 1982 to 2015. The vegetation phenology trends in the four climatic zones are not continuous throughout the 34-year period. Furthermore, discrepancies in the shifting patterns of vegetation phenology trend existed among different climatic zones. Turning points (TP) of SOS trends in the Cold zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone occurred in the mid- or late 1990s. The advanced trends of SOS in the Cold zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone exhibited accelerated, stalled, and reversed patterns after the corresponding TP, respectively. The TP did not occurred in Cold-Temperate zone, where the SOS showed a consistent and continuous advance. TPs of EOS trends in the Cold zone, Cold-Temperate zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone occurred in the late 1980s or mid-1990s. The EOS in the Cold zone, Cold-Temperate zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone showed weak advanced or delayed trends after the corresponding TP, which were comparable with the delayed trends before the corresponding TP. The shift patterns of LOS trends were primarily influenced by the shift patterns of SOS trends and were also heterogeneous within climatic zones.

Large Anomalies in the Tropical Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) Trace Gases Observed during the Extreme 2015–16 El Niño Event by Using Satellite Measurements

It is well reported that the 2015–16 El Niño event is one of the most intense and long lasting events in the 21st century. The quantified changes in the trace gases (Ozone (O3), Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Water Vapour (WV)) in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region are delineated using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Atmosphere Infrared Radio Sounder (AIRS) satellite observations from June to December 2015. Prior to reaching its peak intensity of El Niño 2015–16, large anomalies in the trace gases (O3 and CO) were detected in the tropical UTLS region, which is a record high in the 21st century. A strong decrease in the UTLS (at 100 and 82 hPa) ozone (~200 ppbv) in July-August 2015 was noticed over the entire equatorial region followed by large enhancement in the CO (150 ppbv) from September to November 2015. The enhancement in the CO is more prevalent over the South East Asia (SEA) and Western Pacific (WP) regions where large anomalies of WV in the lower stratosphere are observed in December 2015. Dominant positive cold point tropopause temperature (CPT-T) anomalies (~5 K) are also noticed over the SEA and WP regions from the high-resolution Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Position System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) temperature profiles. These observed anomalies are explained in the light of dynamics and circulation changes during El Niño.

Accuracy of Balloon Trajectory Forecasts in the Lower Stratosphere

This paper investigates the accuracy of simulated long-duration super-pressure balloon trajectories in the lower stratosphere. The observed trajectories were made during the (tropical) Pre-Concordiasi and (polar) Concordiasi campaigns in 2010, while the simulated trajectories are computed using analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System model. In contrast with the polar stratosphere situation, modelling accurate winds in the tropical lower stratosphere remains challenging for numerical weather prediction systems. The accuracy of the simulated tropical trajectories are quantified with the operational products of 2010 and 2016 in order to understand the impact of model physics and vertical resolution improvements. The median errors in these trajectories are large (typically ≳ 250 km after 24 h), with a significant negative bias in longitude, for both model versions. In contrast, using analyses in which the balloon-borne winds have been assimilated reduces the median error in the balloon position after 24 h to ∼60 km. For future campaigns, we describe operational strategies that take advantage of the geographic distribution and the episodic nature of large error events to anticipate the amplitude of error in trajectory forecasts. We finally stress the importance of a high vertical resolution in the model, given the intense shears encountered in the tropical lower stratosphere.

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

Comprehensive Characteristics of Summer Deep Convection over Tibetan Plateau and Its South Slope from the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory

Observational data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory during four summers (2014–2017) has been used to investigate deep convection systems (DCSs) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its south slope (SS). The frequency, geographical distribution diurnal variation, and vertical structure of DCSs over the TP and SS are compared among these two regions. The frequency of DCSs over the SS (0.98%) was far higher than over the TP (0.15%), suggesting that stronger DCSs occur to the east and south of the TP. The maximum number of DCS occurred in July and August. A clear diurnal variation in DCS was found over the whole region, DCSs over the TP and SS both have a greatest amplitude in the afternoon. The probability of DCSs from 1200 to 1800 local time (LT) was 76.3% and 44.1% over TP and SS respectively, whereas the probability of DCSs being generated from 2200 (LT) to 0600 on the next day LT was 0.03% and 33.1% over the TP and SS respectively. There was a very low frequency of DCSs over the TP during the night. Five special echo top heights were used to investigate the vertical structure of DCSs. DCSs over the TP were both weaker and smaller than those over the SS.

The influence of mixing on stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century

Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) due to climate change in the 21st century. However, the strength of this acceleration varies considerably among individual models, which constitutes a notable source of uncertainty for future climate projections. To shed more light upon the magnitude of this uncertainty and on its causes, we analyze the stratospheric mean age of air (AoA) of 10 climate projection simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-I), covering the period between 1960 and 2100. In agreement with previous multi-model studies, we find a large model spread in the magnitude of the AoA trend over the simulation period. Differences between future and past AoA are found to be predominantly due to differences in mixing (reduced aging by mixing and recirculation) rather than differences in residual mean transport. We furthermore analyze the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative strength of mixing for given residual mean transport, which was previously hypothesized to be a model constant. Here, the mixing efficiency is found to vary not only across models, but also over time in all models. Changes in mixing efficiency are shown to be closely related to changes in AoA and quantified to roughly contribute 10% to the long-term AoA decrease over the 21st century. Additionally, mixing efficiency variations are shown to considerably enhance model spread in AoA changes. To understand these mixing efficiency variations, we also present a consistent dynamical framework based on diffusive closure, which highlights the role of basic state potential vorticity gradients in controlling mixing efficiency and therefore aging by mixing.

The Simulation of Stratospheric Water Vapor over the Asian Summer Monsoon Region in CESM1(WACCM) Models

Previous observational studies have found a persistent maximum in stratospheric water vapor (SWV) in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) confined by the upper-level anticyclone over the Asian summer monsoon region. This study investigates the simulation of SWV in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). WACCM generally tends to simulate a SWV maximum over the central Pacific Ocean, but this bias is largely improved in the high vertical resolution version. The high vertical resolution model with increased vertical layers in the UTLS is found to have a less stratified UTLS over the central Pacific Ocean compared with the low vertical resolution model. It therefore simulates a steepened PV gradient over the central Pacific Ocean that better closes the upper-level anticyclone and confines the SWV within the enhanced transport barrier.

Understanding the Recent Global Surface Warming Slowdown: A Review

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted a recent 15-year period (1998–2012) when the rate of surface global warming was a factor of 4 smaller than the mean of the state-of-art climate model projections and than that observed in the previous three decades. When updated to include 2014 by Karl et al. using the new version of NOAA data, the observed warming trend is higher, but is still half or less, depending on dataset used, that of previous decades and the multi-model mean projections. This period is called a surface warming slowdown. Intense community efforts devoted to understanding this puzzling phenomenon—puzzling because atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation has not abated while surface warming slowed—have yielded insights on our climate system, and this may be an opportune time to take stock of what we have learned. Proposed explanations differ on whether it is forced by counteracting agents (such as volcanic and pollution aerosols and stratospheric water vapor) or is an internal variability, and if the latter, on which ocean basin is responsible (Pacific, Indian, or Atlantic Ocean). Here we critically review the observational records, their analyses and interpretations, and offer interpretations of model simulations, with emphasis on sorting through the rather confusing signals at the ocean’s surface, and reconciling them with the subsurface signals.

Augmenting GPS IWV estimations using spatio-temporal cloud distribution extracted from satellite data

Water vapor (WV) is the most variable greenhouse gas in the troposphere, therefore investigation of its spatio-temporal distribution and motion is of great importance in meteorology and climatology studies. Here, we suggest a new strategy for augmenting integrated water vapor (IWV) estimations using both remote sensing satellites and global positioning system (GPS) tropospheric path delays. The strategy is based first on the ability to estimate METEOSAT-10 7.3 µm WV pixel values by extracting the mathematical dependency between the IWV amount calculated from GPS zenith wet delays (ZWD) and the METEOSAT-10 data. We then use the surface temperature differences between ground station measurements and METEOSAT-10 10.8 µm infra-red (IR) channel to identify spatio-temporal cloud distribution structures. As a last stage, the identified cloud features are mapped into the GPS-IWV distribution map when preforming the interpolation between adjusted GPS station inside the network. The suggested approach improves the accuracy of estimated regional IWV maps, in comparison with radiosonde data, thus enables to obtain the total water amount at the atmosphere, both in the form of clouds and vapor. Mean and root mean square (RMS) difference between the GPS-IWV estimations, using the spatio-temporal clouds distribution, and radiosonde data are reduced from 1.77 and 2.81 kg/m² to 0.74 and 2.04 kg/m², respectively. Furthermore, by improving the accuracy of the estimated regional IWV maps distribution it is possible to increase the accuracy of regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) platforms.

The Impact of Cloud Radiative Effects on the Tropical Tropopause Layer Temperatures

A single-column radiative-convective model (RCM) is a useful tool to investigate the physical processes that determine the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperature structures. Previous studies on the TTL using the RCMs, however, omitted the cloud radiative effects. In this study, we examine the impact of cloud radiative effects on the simulated TTL temperatures using an RCM. We derive the cloud radiative effects based on satellite observations, which show heating rates in the troposphere but cooling rates in the stratosphere. We find that the cloud radiative effect warms the TTL by as much as 2 K but cools the lower stratosphere by as much as −1.5 K, resulting in a thicker TTL. With (without) considering cloud radiative effects, we obtain a convection top of ≈167 hPa (≈150 hPa) with a temperature of ≈213 K (≈209 K), and a cold point at ≈87 hPa (≈94 hPa) with a temperature of ≈204 K (≈204 K). Therefore, the cloud radiative effects widen the TTL by both lowering the convection-top height and enhancing the cold-point height. We also examine the impact of TTL cirrus radiative effects on the RCM-simulated temperatures. We find that the TTL cirrus warms the TTL with a maximum temperature increase of ≈1.3 K near 110 hPa.

Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic "fingerprint" predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth's climate.

Evaluation of Parameterized Convective Transport of Trace Gases in Simulation of Storms Observed During the DC3 Field Campaign

Deep convective transport of surface moisture and pollution from the planetary boundary layer to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere affects the radiation budget and climate. This study uses cloud-parameterized Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry simulations to analyze the subgrid deep convective transport of CO at 12- and 36-km horizontal resolution in supercell and mesoscale convective systems observed during the 2012 Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry field campaign and compares the simulation results with aircraft measurements and cloud-resolved simulations. The best Weather Research and Forecasting simulation of these storms was obtained with the use of the Grell-Freitas convective scheme. The default Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry subgrid convective transport scheme was replaced with a scheme to compute convective transport within the Grell-Freitas subgrid cumulus parameterization, which resulted in improved transport simulations. We examined the CO tendencies due to subgrid- and grid-scale convective transport. Results showed that the subgrid convective transport started earlier than the grid-scale convective transport. The subgrid-scale convective transport reached its maximum during the hour prior to the formation of the grid-scale constant-altitude detrainment layer. After that, both the subgrid- and grid-scale convective transport began to decrease. The subgrid-scale convective transport played a more significant role in the supercell case than the mesoscale convective system case. Subgrid contribution reached ~90% at the beginning of the storm and decreased to ~30% (17%) for the 36-km (12-km) domain 4 hr later.

Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5°C Paris target

Solar geoengineering refers to deliberately reducing net radiative forcing by reflecting some sunlight back to space, in order to reduce anthropogenic climate changes; a possible such approach would be adding aerosols to the stratosphere. If future mitigation proves insufficient to limit the rise in global mean temperature to less than 1.5°C above preindustrial, it is plausible that some additional and limited deployment of solar geoengineering could reduce climate damages. That is, these approaches could eventually be considered as part of an overall strategy to manage the risks of climate change, combining emissions reduction, net-negative emissions technologies and solar geoengineering to meet climate goals. We first provide a physical-science review of current research, research trends and some of the key gaps in knowledge that would need to be addressed to support informed decisions. Next, since few climate model simulations have considered these limited-deployment scenarios, we synthesize prior results to assess the projected response if solar geoengineering were used to limit global mean temperature to 1.5°C above preindustrial in an overshoot scenario that would otherwise peak near 3°C. While there are some important differences, the resulting climate is closer in many respects to a climate where the 1.5°C target is achieved through mitigation alone than either is to the 3°C climate with no geoengineering. This holds for both regional temperature and precipitation changes; indeed, there are no regions where a majority of models project that this moderate level of geoengineering would produce a statistically significant shift in precipitation further away from preindustrial levels.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.