Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium

High-resolution reconstruction of April-September precipitation and major extreme droughts in China over the past ∼530 years

Extreme drought events have increased, causing serious losses and damage to the social economy under current warming conditions. However, short-term meteorological data limit our understanding and projection of these extremes. With the accumulation of proxy data, especially tree-ring data, large-scale precipitation field reconstruction has provided opportunities to explore underlying mechanisms further. Using point-by-point regression, we reconstructed the April-September precipitation field in China for the past ∼530 years on the basis of 590 proxy records, including 470 tree-ring width chronologies and 120 drought/flood indices. Our regression models explained average 50% of the variance in precipitation. In the statistical test on calibration and verification, our models passed the significance level that assured reconstruction quality. The reconstruction data performed well, showing consistency and better quality than previously reported reconstructions. The first three leading modes of variability in the reconstruction revealed the main distribution modes of precipitation over China. Wet/drought and extremely wet/drought years accounted for 12.81%/10.92% (68 years/58 years) and 1.69%/3.20% (9 years/17 years) of the past ∼530 years in China, respectively. Major extreme drought events can be identified explicitly in our reconstruction. The detailed features of the Chongzhen Great Drought (1637-1643), the Wanli Great Drought (1585-1590), and the Ding-Wu Great Famine (1874-1879), indicated the existence of potentially different underlying mechanisms that need further exploration. Although further improvements can be made for remote uninhabited areas and large deserts, our gridded reconstruction of April-September precipitation in China over the past ∼530 years can provide a solid database for studies on the attribution of climate change and the mechanism of extreme drought events.

Tree-ring widths of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr reveal variability of winter half-year precipitation on the north-south transition zone in central China over the past 220 years

Long-term, high-resolution regional drought records contribute to understanding the impacts of drought on environmental and social systems in central China. Here, we develop a regional tree-ring width chronology of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr from the northern slope of Funiu Mountains on the north-south transition zone in central China. Monthly correlation analyses showed that temperature and humidity in current May and June are main limiting factors on tree growth. Despite that, the highest correlation with tree growth was found to be precipitation from previous December to current June (PreDJ, 0.718, p < 0.001), which was chosen for reconstruction. The reconstructed PreDJ revealed six drought periods and five wet periods over the past 220 years, and the recent dry spell would likely to continue. Spectral analyses indicated that the reconstructed PreDJ was closely related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, 2-7a) and 35a climatic oscillation of Bruckner, and was also affected by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Wavelet analyses showed that the quasi-cycle of 2-7a persisted over the past 220 years and strengthened after the 1980s, and the QBO signals appeared from the 1860s to 1970s and wear off thereafter, and 35a cycle only appeared during 1820-1920. Spatial analysis found that the reconstructed PreDJ had good spatial representation of precipitation in the central-eastern China. Therefore, the results of this study provide reliable information for understanding long-term drought impacts on environmental conditions and socioeconomic development in central China.

Anthropogenic warming is a key climate indicator of rising urban fire activity in China

China, one of the most populous countries in the world, has suffered the highest number of natural disaster-related deaths from fire. On local scales, the main causes of urban fires are anthropogenic in nature. Yet, on regional to national scales, little is known about the indicators of large-scale co-varying urban fire activity in China. Here, we present the China Fire History Atlas (CFHA), which is based on 19 947 documentary records and represents fires in urban areas of China over the twentieth century (1901-1994). We found that temperature variability is a key indicator of urban fire activity in China, with warmer temperatures being correlated with more urban fires, and that this fire-temperature relationship is seasonally and regionally explicit. In the early twentieth century, however, the fire-temperature relationship was overruled by war-related fires in large urban areas. We further used the fire-temperature relationship and multiple emissions scenarios to project fire activity across China into the twenty-first century. Our projections show a distinct increase in future urban fire activity and fire-related economic loss. Our findings provide insights into fire-climate relationships in China for densely-populated areas and on policy-relevant time scales and they contribute spatial coverage to efforts to improve global fire models.

Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty's capital in 1644 CE

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period. However, the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear. Here, we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from 1576 to 1593 CE and from 1624 to 1643 CE in northern China, which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing. Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim, which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China, but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures. This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Niña-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China, as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas. These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century

Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought and heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, the lack of independent spatial reconstructions of both soil moisture and temperature limits the potential to identify these events in the past and to place them in a long-term context. We develop the Western North American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), a data-independent 0.5° gridded reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures back to the 16th century. Our evaluation of the WNATA with existing hydroclimate reconstructions reveals an increasing association between maximum temperature and drought severity in recent decades, relative to the past five centuries. The synthesis of these paleo-reconstructions indicates that the amplification of the modern WNA megadrought by increased temperatures and the frequency and spatial extent of compound hot and dry conditions in the 21st century are likely unprecedented since at least the 16th century.

Multi-century (635-year) spring season precipitation reconstruction from northern Pakistan revealed increasing extremes

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region is experiencing rapid climate change with adverse impacts in multiple sectors. To put recent climatic changes into a long-term context, here we reconstructed the region's climate history using tree-ring width chronologies of climate-sensitive Cedrus deodara and Pinus gerardiana. Growth-climate analysis reveals that the species tree-growth is primarily limited by moisture stress during or preceding the growing season, as indicated by a positive relationship between the chronology and precipitation and scPDSI, and a negative one with temperature. We have reconstructed 635 years (1384-2018 CE) of February-June precipitation using a robust climate reconstruction model that explains about 53% variance of the measured precipitation data. Our reconstruction shows several dry and wet episodes over the reconstruction period along with an increase in extreme precipitation events during recent centuries or years. Long, very wet periods were observed during the following years: 1392-1393, 1430-1433, 1456-1461, 1523-1526, 1685-1690, 1715-1719, 1744-1748, 1763-1767, 1803-1806, 1843-1846, 1850-1855, 1874-1876, 1885-1887, 1907-1909, 1921-1925, 1939-1944, and 1990-1992, while long dry periods were observed during the following years: 1398-1399, 1464-1472, 1480-1484, 1645-1649, 1724-1727, 1782-1786, 1810-1814, 1831-1835, 1879-1881, 1912-1918, 1981-1986, 1998-2003, and 2016-2018 CE. We found predominantly short-term periodicity cycles of 2.0, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6-2.7, 2.9, 3.3, 4.8, 8.1-8.3, and 9.4-9.6 years in our reconstruction. Spatial correlation analyses reveal that our reconstruction is an effective representation of the precipitation variability in the westerly climate-dominated areas of Pakistan and adjacent regions. In addition to the influence of regional circulation systems like western disturbances, we found possible teleconnections between the precipitation variability in northern Pakistan and broader-scale climate modes or phases like AMO and ENSO. The study also highlights the prospects of tree-ring application to explore linkages between western disturbance, increasing intensity and frequency of extreme climate events, and analysis of long-term atmospheric circulation over the western Himalayan region.

Tree-rings stable isotope (δ18O and δ2H) based 368 years long term precipitation reconstruction of South Eastern Kashmir Himalaya

The hydroclimatic variability in Kashmir Himalaya is influenced by the western disturbances and the Indian Summer Monsoon. To investigate long-term hydroclimatic variability, 368 years tree-ring oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) extending from 1648 to 2015 CE were analysed. These isotopic ratios are calculated using five core samples of Himalayan silver fir (Abies pindrow) collected from the south-eastern region of Kashmir valley. The relationship between the long and short periodicity components of δ18O and δ2H suggested that physiological processes had a minimum effect on the tree-ring stable isotopes in Kashmir Himalaya. The δ18O chronology was developed based on the average of five-individual tree-ring δ18O time series covering the time span of 1648-2015 CE. The climate response analysis revealed the strongest and most significant negative correlation between tree ring δ18O and precipitation amount from the previous year's December to current year's August (D2Apre). The reconstructed D2Apre (D2Arec) explains precipitation variability from 1671 to 2015 CE and is supported by historical and other proxy-based hydroclimatic records. The reconstruction has two distinguishing features: first, it is characterized by stable wet conditions during the last phase of Little Ice Age (LIA) i.e., from 1682 to 1841 CE; and second, the southeast Kashmir Himalaya had experienced drier conditions as compared to recent and historical period with intense pluvial events since 1850. The present reconstruction shows, there have been more extreme dry events than extreme wet events since 1921. A tele-connection is observed between D2Arec and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the Westerly region.

The Western Himalayan fir tree ring record of soil moisture in Pakistan since 1855

Data on historical soil moisture is crucial for assessing and responding to droughts that commonly occur in climate change-affected countries. The Himalayan temperate forests in Pakistan are particularly at risk of climate change. Developing nations lack the means to gather surface soil moisture (SSM) information. Tree rings are one way to bridge this gap. Here, we employed dendrochronological methods on climate-sensitive tree rings from Abies pindrow to reconstruct the SSM in the Western Himalayan mountain region of Pakistan from 1855 to 2020. December (r = 0.41), May (r = 0.40), and June (r = 0.65) SSMs were found to be the limiting factors for A. pindrow growth. However, only the June SSM showed reconstruction possibility (coefficient of efficiency = 0.201 and reduction of error = 0.325). Over the studied period, we found 6 years (wet year) when June SSM was above the threshold of 32.04 (mean + 2 δ) and 1 year (dry year) when June SSM was below the threshold of 21.28 (mean - 2 δ). It was revealed that 1921 and 1917 were the driest and wettest SSM of all time, with means of 19.34 and 36.49, respectively. Our study shows that winter soil moisture is critical for the growing season in the context of climate change. Climate change has broad impacts on tree growth in the Western Himalayas. This study will assist various stakeholders in understanding and managing local and regional climate change.

Carbon sink and source function of Eastern Himalayan forests: implications of change in climate and biotic variables

Forests serve as a sink and source of carbon and play a substantial role in regional and global carbon cycling. The Himalayan forests act as climate regulators of the Hindukush region, which is experiencing climate change at a high pace, and a proper understanding of these systems is necessary to mitigate this problem. We hypothesize that the variance of abiotic factors and vegetation will influence the carbon sink and source function of the different forest types of the Himalayas. Carbon sequestration was computed from the increment of carbon stocks estimated allometrically using Forest Survey of India equations, and soil CO₂ flux was determined by the alkali absorption method. The carbon sequestration rate and CO₂ flux by the different forests exhibited a negative relation. The carbon sequestration rate was highest with minimum emission in the temperate forest, while the tropical forest recorded the least sequestration and maximum carbon flux rate. The Pearson correlation test between carbon sequestration and tree species richness and diversity revealed a positive-significant influence but negative relation with climatic factors. An analysis of variance indicated significant seasonal differences between the rate of soil carbon emissions due to variations in the forest. A multivariate regression analysis of the monthly soil CO₂ emission rate shows high variability (85%) due to fluctuations of climatic variables in the Eastern Himalayan forests. Results of the present study revealed that the carbon sink and source function of forests respond to changes in forest types, climatic variables, and edaphic factors. Tree species and soil nutrient content influenced carbon sequestration, while shifts in climatic factors influenced soil CO₂ emission rate. Increased temperature and rainfall may further change the soil quality by enhancing soil CO₂ emission and reducing soil organic carbon, thereby impacting this region's carbon sink and source function. Enhancing tree diversity in the forests of this region may be beneficial for retarding this impact.

A 2.5° × 2.5° gridded drought/flood grades dataset for eastern China during the last millennium

Hydroclimate reconstruction for the last millennium is essential to understand the differences in hydroclimate extremes and their causes under cold/warm conditions. In this study, the first gridded drought/flood grades (D/F grades) dataset in eastern China (EC) during the last millennium was generated. This D/F grades dataset mainly consisted of two components. The first section was created by interpolating drought/flood grades from 1500 to 2000 using the angular distance weight method. Sampling error estimates were employed to assess the effects of the interpolated dataset. The second section for the D/F grades dataset during 960-1500 was generated by constructing best subset regression models using selected tree-ring chronologies in the United States through atmospheric teleconnection. The validation parameters of the calibration equations were also derived, including the adjusted R², predicted R², RE, and CE. This dataset provides critical support for investigating the characteristics and causes of hydroclimate extremes in EC at various spatiotemporal scales, as well as the relationship with climate modes, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and East Asia Summer Monsoon.

Maximum July-August temperatures for the middle of the southern Tien Shan inferred from tree-ring latewood maximum densities

Long-term temperature reconstructions are urgently needed to prolong meteorological climatic data, which are too short to evaluate the anthropogenic effect on climate change since the Industrial Revolution. The maximum latewood chronology (MXD) of Picea schrenkiana in the middle of the southern Tien Shan was established, and it showed a strong correlation with the mean maximum temperature of the current July to August (T_maxJA), with r = 0.773 (p < 0.001, 1959-2016), which implies that a high temperature in the late growing season could increase the cell wall thickness and lead to high latewood density. Then, the T_maxJA of the middle of the southern Tien Shan was reconstructed over the period of 1720-2018. Three MXD chronologies from Kyrgyzstan significantly correlated with our T_maxJA reconstruction at the interannual scale, and they also showed similar variations on decadal scales. None of these MXD series showed a warming trend in the past century, which was also found in several MXD series from different regions of the world. Spatial correlation analysis revealed that our T_maxJA reconstruction showed significant correlations with that in eastern Asia, southern Europe, and north-western Africa, forming a teleconnection called the Silk Road Pattern. However, moving correlation analysis between our T_maxJA reconstruction and Hokkaido temperature series indicated that this teleconnection was unstable in the past 3 centuries. The volcanic eruptions from the mid-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere showed a stronger cooling effect than those from the Southern Hemisphere and the low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The summer North Atlantic Oscillation was also shown to affect the temperature in the Tien Shan to a certain extent.

The modulation of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon relationship over the past half-millennium

Monsoon precipitation affects natural and social systems in East Asia, one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Monsoon precipitation variability is strongly influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and may be related to the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, a collective understanding of the long-term PDO-ENSO-monsoon relationship remains limited because related studies are almost exclusively based on short instrumental records. Although paleoclimate proxies for PDO and ENSO are currently available, there is a lack of high-quality proxies for East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation. Moreover, the strengthening of the ENSO-EASM relationship since the 1970s has raised the question of anthropogenic impact. Reconstructing EASM precipitation is thus crucial to understanding its variability under natural and anthropogenic forcings. In this study, we addressed these challenges using tree ring oxygen isotopes of red cypress (Chamaecyparis formosensis Matsum), a long-lived endemic tree species in Taiwan. We developed an annual-resolved and well-validated EASM precipitation proxy from 1533 CE to 2011 which explained 49 % of the variance in instrumental precipitation. In comparison with multiple paleoclimate proxies, we revealed that PDO persistently modulated the ENSO-EASM relationship over the past half-millennium. The ENSO-EASM relationship was enhanced during the positive PDO phases and dynamically weakened during the negative PDO phases, notably in the early-17th, 18th, and early to mid-20th centuries. The strengthened relationship since the 1970s concurred with an unusually high PDO and ENSO and fell within its natural variability. Nevertheless, as the amplitude of the PDO is predicted to weaken under warming, the modulation effects may become less predictable.

Variability in the minimum temperature over two centuries in the overlap region between the fringe of the Asian westerly region and the temperate continental-monsoon climate transition zone

The overlap region between the eastern fringe of the Asian westerly region and the temperate continental-monsoon climate transition zone is sensitive to climate changes and is characterized by fragile ecosystems. Uncovering the long-term historical climate variability patterns in this region is necessary. A standardized tree-ring width chronology was constructed based on the tree-ring samples collected from four representative tree species in four typical areas in the overlap region, and the 203- to 343-year annual mean minimum temperature series in the overlap region were reconstructed. The reconstructed series overlapped well with extreme climate events and low-temperature periods recorded in historical data. Therefore, the reconstructed model is stable and reliable. As suggested by the reconstructed series, the annual average minimum temperature in the overlap region changes sharply from east to west, and the periodicity change in the overlap region shows a trend of gradually weakening from the east and west ends to the middle. In the nineteenth century, the high-latitude area was in the high-temperature period, and the entire overlap region experienced significant low-temperature periods lasting 20-45 years until the 1950s. The western part had an earlier low-temperature period start time, a longer cooling duration, and a slower cooling rate than the central part. The overlap region experienced a significant warming period in approximately the last half-century, with temperatures increasing faster in the western and eastern parts than in the central part. The temperature variability in the overlap region was more intense in the last two centuries, with shorter periodicities and a larger proportion of cold periods. The central and western parts of the Asian westerly region, the mid- to high-latitude regions of the transition zone, and the overlap region experienced significant low-temperature periods or drastic cooling trends (the Little Ice Age) in the first half of the nineteenth century and significant warming trends afterwards due to global warming. The influences of these changes may have been exacerbated by the westerly circulation. The results of this study provide new insights into the use of dendroclimatology to extract temperature series in the Asian westerly region and the transition zone and a reference for research on global climate change.

Nonstationary footprints of ENSO in the Mekong River Delta hydrology

The Mekong River Delta (MRD) is an essential agricultural area for the worldwide rice supply. Floods and droughts triggered by El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) have been threatening sustenance in the MRD. Sustainable food supplies require understanding the response of the MRD hydrology to the changing ENSO behaviour in recent decades. Here, we reconstructed the annual rainfall maxima in the MRD using the oceanic paleoclimate proxy from coral skeletons and compared them with ENSO indexes. Annual minima of coral-based seawater oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O_sw) correlated with annual rainfall maxima, which allowed to extend rainfall data from 1924 to the recent. The annual rainfall maxima based on δ¹⁸O_sw negatively correlated with the central Pacific El Niño index. This suggested that La Niña and central Pacific El Niño events lead to heavy and light rainy seasons. The heavy rainy season had more serious impacts in recent decades, which likely increases the flood risk. In contrast, the frequency and rainfall amount of the light rainy season has not changed significantly, although a catastrophic drought has hit the MRD. Our finding concludes that the impact of the ENSO event on MRD hydrology is inconsistent in the past century.

Reconstructed eight-century streamflow in the Tibetan Plateau reveals contrasting regional variability and strong nonstationarity

Short instrumental streamflow records in the South and East Tibetan Plateau (SETP) limit understanding of the full range and long-term variability in streamflow, which could greatly impact freshwater resources for about one billion people downstream. Here we reconstruct eight centuries (1200-2012 C.E.) of annual streamflow from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas in five headwater regions across the SETP. We find two regional patterns, including northern (Yellow, Yangtze, and Lancang-Mekong) and southern (Nu-Salween and Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra) SETP regions showing ten contrasting wet and dry periods, with a dividing line of regional moisture regimes at ~32°-33°N identified. We demonstrate strong temporal nonstationarity in streamflow variability, and reveal much greater high/low mean flow periods in terms of duration and magnitude: mostly pre-instrumental wetter conditions in the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra and drier conditions in other rivers. By contrast, the frequency of extreme flows during the instrumental periods for the Yangtze, Nu-Salween, and Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra has increased by ~18% relative to the pre-instrumental periods.

Protracted Indian monsoon droughts of the past millennium and their societal impacts

Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period (ca. since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region's current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.

Warming-induced drought leads to tree growth decline in subtropics: Evidence from tree rings in central China

Subtropical forests provide diverse ecosystem services to human society. However, how subtropical tree species respond to climate change is still unclear. Using a dendrochronological method, we studied the radial growth patterns and species-specific responses of four main tree species in subtropical China to recent warming and drought. Results showed that the long-term drought caused by global warming and reduced precipitation since 1997 had resulted in the growth decline of Pinus massoniana, Castanea henryi and Castanopsis eyrei but not for Liquidambar formosana. Four species had similar sensitivities to the previous year and the current year, which is probably due to the carryover effect and temporal autocorrelation of climate data. Tree growth was positively correlated with growing season precipitation and relative humidity while negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit. The negative relationship of tree radial growth with temperatures in the previous and current summer and the positive correlation with precipitation gradually strengthened after 1997. Therefore, we highlighted that drought-induced tree decline in subtropical forests is probably a common phenomenon, and it needed to verify by more tree-ring studies on a large scale. The species-specific responses of tree radial growth to climate change are not obvious, but they still should be considered in regional carbon balance and forest dynamics. Considering future climate change, species that are more drought tolerant should be considered as potential plantation species.

Stable isotope approaches and opportunities for improving plant conservation

Successful conservation of threatened species and ecosystems in a rapidly changing world requires scientifically sound decision-making tools that are readily accessible to conservation practitioners. Physiological applications that examine how plants and animals interact with their environment are now widely used when planning, implementing and monitoring conservation. Among these tools, stable-isotope physiology is a potentially powerful, yet under-utilized cornerstone of current and future conservation efforts of threatened and endangered plants. We review the underlying concepts and theory of stable-isotope physiology and describe how stable-isotope applications can support plant conservation. We focus on stable isotopes of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and nitrogen to address plant ecophysiological responses to changing environmental conditions across temporal scales from hours to centuries. We review examples from a broad range of plant taxa, life forms and habitats and provide specific examples where stable-isotope analysis can directly improve conservation, in part by helping identify resilient, locally adapted genotypes or populations. Our review aims to provide a guide for practitioners to easily access and evaluate the information that can be derived from stable-isotope signatures, their limitations and how stable isotopes can improve conservation efforts.

A Framework on Analyzing Long-Term Drought Changes and Its Influential Factors Based on the PDSI

Drought is one of the most frequent and most widespread natural disasters worldwide, significantly impacting agricultural production and the ecological environment. An investigation of long-term drought changes and its influencing factors provides not only an understanding of historical droughts but also a scientific basis for the protection of future water resources. This study investigated the temporal characteristics of drought in a study site located in the center of Southwest China (SWC) over a 700-year period (AD 1300–2005) using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The linkage between drought and its influencing factors is discussed. An algorithm based on the random forest (RF) method was proposed to analyze the dynamic influence of the factors on drought. We also examined the linkages between the demise of two dynasties and historical drought events. The results showed that the study site was a drought-prone area in the study period and experienced a non-significant drying trend in all centuries, except for the 17th century; a total of 232 droughts were detected in the study site from AD 1300–2005. The wavelet spectrum of the PDSI series showed the existence of 4-, 8-, 16-, 32-, and 128-year-periods. A strong correlation existed between the sunspot numbers and the PDSI. The correlation of the period between the PDSI and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) series in the same frequency domain was weak, while the ENSO exhibited a strong interaction with the PDSI in some time periods. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and PDSI had no resonance period in the low-frequency region, but there was a period of 80–130 years in the high-frequency region. The relative rates of influence of the ENSO, sunspot numbers, and PDO during AD 1700–1996 were 38.40%, 31.81%, and 29.8%, respectively. However, the mechanism of the interaction between droughts and the influential factors is complex, and the dominant factor changed over time. The analysis of long-term drought changes based on the PDSI series may provide clues to understand the development of historical events.

Proxy Response Heterogeneity to the Indian Monsoon During Last Millennium in the Himalayan Region

We reviewed the available climate records for the past 2 millennia based on the analyzed sediment and speleothem archives from different regions of South Asia. Speleothem records from the core-monsoon regions of the Indian sub-continent have revealed the Little Ice Age (LIA) as a climatically dry phase, whereas the same from the western and central Himalaya recorded LIA as wet. Moreover, the sediment-derived vegetation proxy records [pollen-spores and stable organic carbon isotope (δ13Corg)] from the western Himalaya also reported LIA as a dry phase. Heterogeneous results by different proxies during LIA enhanced our interest to understand the response of the proxies toward the primary precipitation sources, Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and winter westerly disturbances (WDs), over the Himalaya. We emphasize that in the Himalayan region, the vegetation predominantly responds to the ISM dynamics, whereas speleothem also captures the WD effect.

Climate-Growth Relationships of Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) at Mt. Shiren in Climatic Transition Zone, Central China

Simple Summary

Tree rings are widely used in global change research based on the accurate dating capabilities, climate sensitivity and wide distribution of samples. In the context of global warming, the response of tree growths in north–south transition zones to climate change is one of the hot issues in Dendroecology. The research results found that trees’ growth had different responses to May–June temperature and precipitation on the north and south of the mountain. Therefore, we analyzed the relationship between tree ring and a regional hydrothermal composite factor and reconstructed its variation. The variations agree with other drought series and represent the drought variation in central and eastern monsoon regions, and may provide better understanding of drought variation and service for agricultural production.

Abstract

Tree ring data from the southern boundary of Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) distribution where is the southern warm temperate margin, the paper analyzes the response of climate factors along north–south direction to tree growth. The results show that temperature and precipitation in May–June and relative moisture from March to June are main limiting factors on trees growth; however, the temperature in the south of the mountains and the moisture in the north of the mountains have relatively greater influence on trees’ growth. Additionally, we also found that the regional scPDSI_MJ (that is scPDSI in May–June) was the most significant and stable factor limiting tree growth to be used for reconstruction. The reconstructed scPDSI_MJ revealed that there were 29 extremely dry years and 30 extremely wet years during 1801–2016, and it could represent the drought variation in central and eastern monsoon region. The variation exists in good agreement with the reconstructed PDSI for Mt. Shennong and the drought/wetness series in Zhengzhou. Further research found that the droughts of May–June in central China were mainly impacted by local temperature and moisture (including precipitation, soil moisture, potential evaporation and water pressure), and then by the northern Pacific Ocean and the northern Atlantic Ocean. These results may provide better understanding of May–June drought variation and service for agricultural production in central China.

Climate-catchment-soil control on hydrological droughts in peninsular India

Most land surface system models and observational assessments ignore detailed soil characteristics while describing the drought attributes such as growth, duration, recovery, and the termination rate of the event. With the national-scale digital soil maps available for India, we assessed the climate-catchment-soil nexus using daily observed streamflow records from 98 sites in tropical rain-dominated catchments of peninsular India (8–25° N, 72–86° E). Results indicated that climate-catchment-soil properties may control hydrological drought attributes to the tune of 14–70%. While terrain features are dominant drivers for drought growth, contributing around 50% variability, soil attributes contribute ~ 71.5% variability in drought duration. Finally, soil and climatic factors together control the resilience and termination rate. The most relevant climate characteristics are potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, rainfall, and temperature; temperature and soil moisture are dominant controls for streamflow drought resilience. Among different soil properties, soil organic carbon (SOC) stock could resist drought propagation, despite low-carbon soils across the Indian subcontinent. The findings highlight the need for accounting feedback among climate, soil, and topographical properties in catchment-scale drought propagations.

Responses to Climate Change of Maximum Latewood Density from Larix speciosa Cheng et Law and Abies delavayi Franch. in the Northwest of Yunnan Province, China

Tree-ring density has been used for climate-response analysis and climate reconstruction for many species. However, our knowledge of wood density for the responses of different species to climate remains very limited and inconclusive. To determine the relationship between maximum latewood density (MXD) and climate for deciduous and evergreen coniferous species, MXD chronologies were developed from Larix speciosa Cheng et Law and Abies delavayi Franch. growing at 3200–3300 m a.s.l. in Gongshan county, northwestern Yunnan, in China. Significant positive correlations with late summer mean temperature were found for the MXD chronologies of both species. However, the highest correlation occurred in August–September for L. speciosa (r = 0.551, p < 0.01) and in September–October for A. delavayi (r = 0.575, p < 0.01), which may be associated with the physiological habits of trees. Linear model can describe relationships between late-summer temperature and MXD index for L. speciosa (MXD = 0.0506T8–9 − 0.0509, R2 = 30.3%) and A. delavay (MXD = 0.0317T9–10 + 0.4066, R2 = 33.0%). The composite chronology from the two species can reveal a late summer temperature (August−October) signal with the explained variance 32.2% for its response model. However, in dry areas and or at high altitudes close to upper tree line, the responses of wood densities to climate require further investigation for deciduous and evergreen coniferous species.

GDP effects of pandemics: a historical perspective

The paper estimates dynamic effects of pandemics on GDP per capita with local projections, controlling for the effects of wars and weather conditions, using a novel dataset that covers 33 countries and stretches back to the thirteenth century. On average, pandemics are found to have prolonged and highly statistically significant effects on GDP per capita-a pandemic killing 1% of the population tends to increase GDP per capita by approx. 0.3% after about 20 years. The study of a more detailed dataset available for the UK reveals that this results mainly from an increase in per capita land and a disproportionate impact of pandemics on low-productivity workers, while monetary expansion, institutional change and innovation could also play some role. At the same time, the effects of pandemics are found to vary with scale and across time and countries, with positive effects present following the Black Death and the Spanish flu pandemics, especially in Northern Europe. This suggests that only the largest and most unexpected pandemics have a positive impact on income.

Dendrochronology-Based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Reconstruction in the Qinling Mountains, North-Central China

Larix chinensis Beissn., as a native, dominant and climate-sensitive coniferous species at Mount Taibai timberline, Qinling mountains, is rarely disturbed by anthropogenic activities; thus, it is an ideal proxy for the investigation of climate change or vegetation evolution. In this study, we applied dendrochronological methods to the L. chinensis tree-ring series from Mt. Taibai and investigated the relationships between tree-ring widths and NDVI/climate factors using Pearson correlation analysis. On the basis of the remarkable positive correlations (r = 0.726, p < 0.01, n = 23) between local July normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) and tree-ring width indices, the regional 146-year annual maximum vegetation density was reconstructed using a regression model. The reconstructed NDVI series tracked the observed data well, as the trans-function accounted for 52.8% of observed NDVI variance during AD 1991–2013. After applying an 11-year moving average, five dense vegetation coverage periods and six sparse vegetation coverage periods were clearly presented. At a decadal scale, this reconstruction was reasonably and negatively correlated with a nearby historical-record-based dryness/wetness index (DWI), precisely verifying that local vegetation cover was principally controlled by hydrothermal variations. Spectral analysis unveiled the existence of 2–3-year, 2–4-year, 5–7-year and 7–11-year cycles, which may potentially reflect the connection between local NDVI evolution and larger-scale circulations, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and solar activity. This study is of great significance for providing a long-term perspective on the dynamics of vegetation cover in the Qinling mountains, and could help to guide expectations of future forest variations.

Multi–Proxy Reconstruction of Drought Variability in China during the Past Two Millennia

Drought imposes serious challenges to ecosystems and societies and has plagued mankind throughout the ages. To understand the long-term trend of drought in China, a series of annual self-calibrating Palmer drought severity indexes (scPDSI), which is a semi-physical drought index based on the land surface water balance, were reconstructed during AD 56~2000. Multi-proxy records of tree-ring width and stalagmite oxygen isotope δ18O were used for this reconstruction, along with random forest regression. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the reconstruction results were analyzed, and comparisons were made with previous studies. Results showed that (1) China witnessed a drought-based state during the past 2000 years (mean value of scPDSI was −0.3151), with an average annual drought area of 85,000 km2; 4 wetting periods, i.e., the Han Dynasty (AD 56~220), the Tang Dynasty (AD 618~907), the Ming Dynasty (AD 1368~1644), and the Qing Dynasty (AD 1644~1912); and 2 drying periods, i.e., the Era of Disunity (AD 221~580) and the Song Dynasty (AD 960~1279). (2) Three different alternating fluctuation dry-wet modes (i.e., interannual, multidecadal, and centennial scales) in China were all significantly (p-value < 0.001) correlated with the amplitude and frequency of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. (3) According to the spatial models disassembled from the rotated empirical orthogonal function, China was divided into nine dry-wet regions: northwestern China, Xinjiang, southwestern China, southeastern China, the Loess plateau, central China, southwestern Tibet, eastern China, and northeastern China. (4) The random forest (RF) was found to be accurate and stable for the reconstruction of drought variability in China compared with linear regression.

Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Variations in Subalpine Firs from the Western Himalaya Capture Spring Season Temperature Signals

We analyzed the tree-rings δ18O of Abies spectabilis (fir) growing at the subalpine treeline ecotone in the Magguchatti valley. The valley is located in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) dominated region of western Himalaya and also receives snow precipitation derived by westerly disturbances (WDs) during the winter months. The 60 year developed (1960–2019 CE) tree-ring δ18O chronology revealed a strong positive correlation with the temperature of late winter and spring months (February to April). Strong negative correlations are also apparent for snowcover, soilmoisture, and relative humidity for the same spring season. Our findings partly contrast the significant correlation results of tree-ring δ18O with summer precipitation and drought indices recorded from other summer monsoon-dominated regions in the Himalayas. The spatial correlation analyses with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and climate parameters showed subdued signals of tropical Pacific at the site, but with a shift to more moisture influx from the Arabian Sea during the last two decades. Moreover, a significant negative correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation further justifies the strongly captured spring temperature and snowcover signals and the weak effect of summer precipitation in fir trees. A temperature rising trend during the latter half of the 20th century and the elevation effect are taken as important factors controlling the moisture source at the treeline ecotone zones.

A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation

The potential for explosive volcanism to affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been debated since the 1980s. Several observational studies, based largely on tree-ring proxies, have since found support for a positive ENSO phase in the year following large eruptions. In contrast, recent coral data from the heart of the tropical Pacific suggest no uniform ENSO response to explosive volcanism over the last millennium. Here we leverage paleoclimate data assimilation to integrate both tree-ring and coral proxies into a reconstruction of ENSO state, and re-appraise this relationship. We find only a weak statistical association between volcanism and ENSO, and identify the selection of volcanic events as a key variable to the conclusion. We discuss the difficulties of conclusively establishing a volcanic influence on ENSO by empirical means, given the myriad factors affecting the response, including the spatiotemporal details of the forcing and ENSO phase preconditioning.

It has been argued that volcanic eruptions can influence the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the strength of this relationship is not well known. Here, the authors use paleoclimate data assimilation methods to study the linkage over the last millennium and find that there is only a weak association between volcanism and ENSO.

Heterogeneous isotope effects decouple conifer leaf and branch sugar δ18O and δ13C

Isotope ratios of tree-ring cellulose are a prominent tool to reconstruct paleoclimate and plant responses to environmental variation. Current models for cellulose isotope ratios assume a transfer of the environmental signals recorded in bulk leaf water to carbohydrates and ultimately into stem cellulose. However, the isotopic signal of carbohydrates exported from leaf to branch may deviate from mean leaf values if spatial heterogeneity in isotope ratios exists in the leaf. We tested whether the isotopic heterogeneity previously observed along the length of a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) leaf water was preserved in photosynthetic products. We observed an increase in both sugar and bulk tissue δ¹⁸O values along the needle, but the increase in carbohydrate δ¹⁸O values was dampened relative to the trend observed in leaf water. In contrast, δ¹³C values of both sugar and bulk organic matter were invariant along the needle. Phloem-exported sugar measured in the branch below the needles did not match whole-needle values of δ¹⁸O or δ¹³C. Instead, there was a near-constant offset observed between the branch and needle sugar δ¹³C values, while branch δ¹⁸O values were most similar to δ¹⁸O values observed for sugar at the base of the needle. The observed offset between the branch and needle sugar δ¹⁸O values likely arises from partial isotope oxygen exchange between sugars and water during phloem loading and transport. An improved understanding of the conditions producing differential δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O isotope effects between branch phloem and needle sugars could improve tree-ring-based climate reconstructions.

Regional and Local Impacts of the ENSO and IOD Events of 2015 and 2016 on the Indian Summer Monsoon—A Bhutan Case Study

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a vital role in the livelihoods and economy of those living on the Indian subcontinent, including the small, mountainous country of Bhutan. The ISM fluctuates over varying temporal scales and its variability is related to many internal and external factors including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In 2015, a Super El Niño occurred in the tropical Pacific alongside a positive IOD in the Indian Ocean and was followed in 2016 by a simultaneous La Niña and negative IOD. These events had worldwide repercussions. However, it is unclear how the ISM was affected during this time, both at a regional scale over the whole ISM area and at a local scale over Bhutan. First, an evaluation of data products comparing ERA5 reanalysis, TRMM and GPM satellite, and GPCC precipitation products against weather station measurements from Bhutan, indicated that ERA5 reanalysis was suitable to investigate ISM change in these two years. The reanalysis datasets showed that there was disruption to the ISM during this period, with a late onset of the monsoon in 2015, a shifted monsoon flow in July 2015 and in August 2016, and a late withdrawal in 2016. However, this resulted in neither a monsoon surplus nor a deficit across both years but instead large spatial-temporal variability. It is possible to attribute some of the regional scale changes to the ENSO and IOD events, but the expected impact of a simultaneous ENSO and IOD events are not recognizable. It is likely that 2015/16 monsoon disruption was driven by a combination of factors alongside ENSO and the IOD, including varying boundary conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, and more. At a local scale, the intricate topography and orographic processes ongoing within Bhutan further amplified or dampened the already altered ISM.

Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years

The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (>40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered waves of human migration and societal transformation in northern China, which contributed to the alteration of spatial pattern of ancient civilizations.

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium–BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

A July-August relative humidity record in North China since 1765 AD reconstructed from tree-ring cellulose δ18O

Since the late 1970s, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has shown a significant weakening trend, and sustained drought has occurred across North China. Placing recent climate changes in the paleoclimatic context can better understand the EASM variations. Four δ¹⁸O sequences based on tree-ring cellulose of Chinese pine were developed from Mt. Beiwudang, North China, covering a period from 1700 to 2013. Based on a climatic response analysis, a transfer function was designed to reconstruct the relative humidity from July to August (RH_JA hereafter). The RH_JA spans from 1765 to 2013 and explains 49% (R²_adj = 48%) of the instrumental variance during the calibration period (1961-2013, r = - 0.70, p < 0.0001). The RH_JA is mainly influenced by precipitation in the summer rainy season and reflect EASM variations. Spatial representation analysis indicates that RH_JA represents the dry/wet variations across North China. At the interannual scale, RH_JA records many extreme dry/wet events, among which the events in 1876-1878, 1900, and the 1920s are extensive droughts. Those events correspond well to ENSO events, plus further correlation and periodicity analysis indicate that RH_JA contains ENSO signals. At the interdecadal scale, RH_JA shows a decreasing trend and unprecedented low values from 1981 to 2013, suggesting that the weakening of EASM since the late 1970s is unprecedented in the past 249 years. Similarly, the significantly correlating region in the spatial correlation analysis, covering the Meiyu/Baiu/Changma rainfall belt and India, have also undergone a climatic shift since the late 1970s according to previous papers.

Decoding the dramatic hundred-year water level variations of a typical great lake in semi-arid region of northeastern Asia

Lakes in arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing dramatic variations in water level and volume, which has caused severe ecological and social problems. Long-term study of the lake dynamics in arid/semi-arid regions could provide particular insights into the mechanisms driving lake variations, while hydro-meteorological data were usually limited in these regions, especially before the instrumental period. In the present study, we focused on a typical great lake - Hulun Lake in semi-arid region in northern China, simulated the hydrological processes from 1904 to 2016 using SWAT model, CRUNCEP7 reanalysis data, and sparse records of lake level during 1900s-1950s, and investigated the mechanisms driving the dramatic variations of the lake at the hundred-year time scale. Results illustrated that the simplified Penman equation by Valiantzas (2006) could reproduce the evaporation dynamics of Hulun Lake, with monthly R² being 0.93-0.95. The long-term simulation since 1904 reproduced runoff dynamics, which were consistent with the dramatic variations of lake level over hundred years. The largest water level increase (~5.0 m in 1950s) and decrease (~4.5 m in 2000s) during 1904-2016 were jointly affected by river runoff, lake evaporation, and precipitation into the lake. Both the positive/negative phase and the multi-decadal trend of PDO clearly influenced the hydrological cycle of Hunlun Lake, especially for the period of 1904-1950 with low lake levels. Overall, the present study provided a methodology for investigating the hundred-year hydrological processes for lakes in semi-arid regions in northeastern Asia.

June–July Temperature Reconstruction of Kashmir Valley from Tree Rings of Himalayan Pindrow Fir

The Himalaya is one of the major mountain ecosystems that is most likely to be impacted by climate change. The main drawback in understanding climate change in the remote Himalayan ecosystems is the lack of long-term instrumental climate records. Reconstructing past climates from tree-rings offers a useful proxy for adding data to the instrumental climate records. In this study, climatically sensitive tree-rings of Himalayan fir (Abies pindrow) were used for reconstruction of mean June–July temperatures of Kashmir valley. Total ring-width chronology was built from 60 tree-ring cores growing near the higher altitudinal limits of the species. The radial growth showed a strong positive response to growing season temperature. The strong response of site chronology to mean June–July temperatures was used for reconstruction purposes. Mean June–July temperatures of Kashmir valley were reconstructed since 1773 from residual site chronology. Though the reconstruction did not show any strong long-term trend, on a centennial-scale, 20th-century summers were the warmest with a mean annual summer temperature of 22.99 °C. Seven of the warmest years and five of the warmest decades were seen in the 20th century. The reconstruction for 1773–2012 showed 23 extreme hot summers above the hot threshold of a 23.47 °C mean temperature and 19 extreme cold years below the cold threshold of a 22.46 °C mean summer temperature. The cold years in the reconstruction did not coincide with known volcanic eruptions. This reconstruction will help in providing a better understanding of regional climate change.

Global hydroclimatic response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last millennium

Future large tropical volcanic eruptions will induce global hydroclimatic changes, superimposed on anthropogenic climate change. Understanding how volcanic eruptions affect global hydroclimate is therefore critically important. Tejedor et al. use a new paleoclimatic product, which combines information from high-resolution proxies and climate models, to estimate volcanic impacts on hydroclimate over the last millennium. They find that past eruptions caused severe drying in tropical Africa and across Central Asia and the Middle East and significantly wetter conditions over Oceania and the South American monsoon region, some of which persisted for a decade or longer. These proxy-based findings suggest that, relative to estimates from a state-of-the-art climate model, much larger and persistent hydroclimatic changes are possible across regions of important socioeconomic activity.

Large tropical volcanic eruptions can affect the climate of many regions on Earth, yet it is uncertain how the largest eruptions over the past millennium may have altered Earth’s hydroclimate. Here, we analyze the global hydroclimatic response to all the tropical volcanic eruptions over the past millennium that were larger than the Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991. Using the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), we find that these large volcanic eruptions tended to produce dry conditions over tropical Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East and wet conditions over much of Oceania and the South American monsoon region. These anomalies are statistically significant, and they persisted for more than a decade in some regions. The persistence of the anomalies is associated with southward shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We compare the PHYDA results with the stand-alone model response of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)-Last Millennium Ensemble. We find that the proxy-constrained PHYDA estimates are larger and more persistent than the responses simulated by CESM. Understanding which of these estimates is more realistic is critical for accurately characterizing the hydroclimate risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change

A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.

High Rainfall Inhibited Soil Respiration in an Asian Monsoon Forest in Taiwan

Soil respiration represents the second largest carbon flux, next to photosynthesis of the terrestrial biosphere, and thus plays a dual role in regional and global carbon cycles. However, soil respiration in Asian monsoon forests with high rainfall has rarely been studied. In this study, we continuously measured soil respiration using a 12-channel automated chamber system in a 61-year-old Japanese cedar forest in central Taiwan with annual rainfall greater than 2500 mm. A 4-year (2011–2014) continuous half-hourly dataset was used to quantify the influences of soil temperature and moisture, especially rainfall events, on both total soil respiration (Rs) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The annual mean Rs was approximately 10.8 t C ha−1 (ranging from 10.7 to 10.9) t C ha−1, with Rh contributing approximately 74.6% (ranging from 71.7% to 80.2%). Large seasonal variations in both Rs and Rh were primarily controlled by soil temperature. Over 45.8% of total annual rainfall amounts were provided by strong rainfall events (over 50 mm), and over 40% of rainfall events occurred during summers between 2012 and 2014. These strong rainfall events caused rainwater to enter soil pores and cover the soil surface, which resulted in limited soil microorganism activity and, consequently, restricted CO2 production. The mean Q10 values were 2.38 (ranging from 1.77 to 2.65) and 2.02 (ranging from 1.71 to 2.34) for Rs and Rh, respectively. The Q10 values in this study, which were lower than in global forest ecosystems, may imply that the interannual Rs values observed in this study that were caused by high rainfall were less temperature-dependent than the Rs levels in global forest ecosystems. Both Rs and Rh were negatively correlated with soil moisture, which indicated that the soil moisture levels in the studied forest were usually under saturated conditions. These results also provide the lack of data for respiration in the Asian monsoon region under high-rainfall conditions.

The role of tropical volcanic eruptions in exacerbating Indian droughts

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871-2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Niña conditions, further enhancing Indian droughts. Using climate-model simulations of the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption, we show that eruption induced an El Niño like warming in the central Pacific for two consecutive years due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption. This El Niño like warming in the central Pacific led to a precipitation reduction in the Indian region. In addition, solar dimming caused by the volcanic plume in 2011 reduced Indian rainfall.

Abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over inner East Asia beyond the tipping point

Unprecedented heatwave-drought concurrences in the past two decades have been reported over inner East Asia. Tree-ring-based reconstructions of heatwaves and soil moisture for the past 260 years reveal an abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over this region. Enhanced land-atmosphere coupling, associated with persistent soil moisture deficit, appears to intensify surface warming and anticyclonic circulation anomalies, fueling heatwaves that exacerbate soil drying. Our analysis demonstrates that the magnitude of the warm and dry anomalies compounding in the recent two decades is unprecedented over the quarter of a millennium, and this trend clearly exceeds the natural variability range. The "hockey stick"-like change warns that the warming and drying concurrence is potentially irreversible beyond a tipping point in the East Asian climate system.

Oxygen Isotopes in Tree Rings from Greenland: A New Proxy of NAO

We present the first Greenlandic tree ring oxygen isotope record (δ18OGTR), derived from four birch trees collected from the Qinguadalen Valley in southwestern Greenland in 1999. Our δ18O record spans from 1950–1999 and is significantly and positively correlated with winter ice core δ18O from southern Greenland. δ18OGTR records are positively correlated with southwestern Greenland January–August mean temperatures. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstructions have been developed from a variety of proxies, but never with Greenlandic tree rings, and our δ18OGTR record is significantly correlated with NAO (r = −0.64), and spatial correlations with sea-level pressure indicate a classic NAO pressure seesaw pattern. These results may facilitate a longer NAO reconstruction based on long time series of tree ring δ18O records from Greenland, provided that subfossil wood can be found in areas vacated by melting glaciers.

Extreme climate historical variation based on tree-ring width record in the Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have caused serious impacts on the service functions of terrestrial ecosystems and the production and life of human society in recent years. The warm nights (TN90p) variable of the 26 extreme climate indicators was the main factor controlling the tree radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) in the Tianshan Mountains region based on the responses of tree-ring width in the 5 sample sites. Therefore, TN90p in the growth season from May to September (TN90p_5-9) during 1735-2016 was reconstructed on the basis of the time stability of the growth-climate relationships. The interpretation rate of variance of the reconstructed equation was 45.4% (R²_adj = 44.4%, F = 45.7). The reconstruction showed four relatively high TN90p_5-9 historic intervals (1747-1798, 1856-1872, 1906-1951, and 2002-2016) and four low intervals (1735-1747, 1798-1856, 1872-1900, and 1951-2002). The occurrence frequency of extreme high values was higher than that of extreme low values during the reconstruction period of 1735-2016. The extreme values of reconstruction were consistent with historical droughts and large-scale volcanic eruptions, indicating that the reconstruction series had high accuracy. Multi-window spectral periodic analysis and spatial correlation analysis revealed that TN90p_5-9 variation in the study area was affected by large-scale sea-air stress factors. In particular, the TN90p_5-9 obtained by using R/S analysis (rescaled range analysis) will continue to show an upward trend in the relative period of time in the future. This trend will lead to a further decrease in the radial growth of trees and even trigger forest death events.

Seven centuries of reconstructed Brahmaputra River discharge demonstrate underestimated high discharge and flood hazard frequency

The lower Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh and Northeast India often floods during the monsoon season, with catastrophic consequences for people throughout the region. While most climate models predict an intensified monsoon and increase in flood risk with warming, robust baseline estimates of natural climate variability in the basin are limited by the short observational record. Here we use a new seven-century (1309-2004 C.E) tree-ring reconstruction of monsoon season Brahmaputra discharge to demonstrate that the early instrumental period (1956-1986 C.E.) ranks amongst the driest of the past seven centuries (13th percentile). Further, flood hazard inferred from the recurrence frequency of high discharge years is severely underestimated by 24-38% in the instrumental record compared to previous centuries and climate model projections. A focus on only recent observations will therefore be insufficient to accurately characterise flood hazard risk in the region, both in the context of natural variability and climate change.

Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO-Indian monsoon coupling

Coupling of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions.

Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century

South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

The Role of El Niño in Driving Drought Conditions over the Last 2000 Years in Thailand

Irregular climate events frequently occur in Southeast Asia due to the numerous climate patterns combining. Thailand sits at the confluence of these interactions, and consequently experiences major hydrological events, such as droughts. Proxy data, speleothem records, lake sediment sequences and tree ring chronologies were used to reconstruct paleo drought conditions. These trends were compared with modelled and historic El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data to assess if the ENSO climate phenomena is causing droughts in Thailand. Drought periods were found to occur both during El Niño events and ENSO neutral conditions. This indicates droughts are not a product of one climate pattern, but likely the result of numerous patterns interacting. There is uncertainty regarding how climate patterns will evolve under climate change, but changes in amplitude and variability could potentially lead to more frequent and wider reaching hydrological disasters. It is vital that policies are implemented to cope with the resulting social and economic repercussions, including diversification of crops and reorganisation of water consumption behaviour in Thailand.

A tree-ring δ18O based reconstruction of East Asia summer monsoon over the past two centuries

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) exhibits considerable decadal variations since the late 20th century. Efforts to examine long-term behaviors and dynamics of the EASM are impeded largely due to the shortness of instrumental meteorological records. So far, reconstructions of the EASM with annual resolution from its core regions remain limited. We conduct the first 200-year robust EASM reconstruction based on tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O records derived from Pinus massoniana trees growing in the middle Yangtze River basin, one of the core EASM areas. The δ¹⁸O chronology accounts for 46.2% of the actual variation in an index of the EASM from 1948 to 2014. The reconstructed EASM indicates that the monsoon intensity was below average before the 1950s, peaked in the 1950s-1970s, and then began to decline. The reconstructed EASM is negatively correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this teleconnection is dynamic through time, i.e. enhanced (reduced) ENSO variability coheres with strong (weak) EASM-ENSO connections. In addition, despite high ENSO variability since the 1980s, the EASM-ENSO relationship weakened possibly due to anthropogenic impact, particularly aerosol emissions.

A 338-year tree-ring oxygen isotope record from Thai teak captures the variations in the Asian summer monsoon system

A 338-year oxygen isotope record from teak tree-ring cellulose collected from Mae Hong Son province in northwestern Thailand was presented. The tree-ring series preserves the isotopic signal of the regional wet season rainfall and relative humidity. Tree-ring δ¹⁸O correlates strongly with regional rainfall from May to October, showing coherent variations over large areas in Southeast Asia. We reconstructed the summer monsoon season (May to October) rainfall based on a linear regression model that explained 35.2% of the actual rainfall variance. Additionally, we found that in the 19^th century, there was a remarkable drought during many years that corresponded to regional historic drought events. The signals of the June to September Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for the period between 1948 and 2009 were clearly found. Spatial correlations and spectral analyses revealed a strong impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tree-ring δ¹⁸O. However, ENSO influenced the tree-ring δ¹⁸O more strongly in the 1870-1906, 1907-1943, and 1944-1980 periods than in the 1981-2015 period, which corresponded to periods of weaker and stronger ISM intensity.

Climatic change in southern Kazakhstan since 1850 C.E. inferred from tree rings

Although global warming is an indisputable fact, there is still uncertainty about how climate change will occur at regional levels. Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world. To best manage this country's limited water resources, socio-economic development and environmental protection, a solid understanding of regional climate change impacts is needed. In this study, tree-ring width and δ¹³C chronologies were established based on 99 tree-ring samples of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) collected in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Climate response analysis between the tree-ring chronologies and climate data indicates that summer mean temperature is the strongest climate signal recorded by tree-ring δ¹³C. We reconstructed temperature change in southern Kazakhstan since 1850 C.E. using the tree-ring δ¹³C_corr chronology. The results show that the temperatures in southern Kazakhstan have risen at a rate of about 0.27 °C per decade over the past 166 years. However, the rate has increased by as much as 0.44 °C per decade over the past 30 years. Analyses of temperature and precipitation data show that the climate has alternated between warm-dry and cold-humid periods over the past 166 years. The extreme droughts of 1879, 1917 and 1945 were caused by the combination of continuously high temperatures and reduced precipitation.

A 241-Year Cryptomeria fortune Tree-Ring Chronology in Humid Subtropical China and Its Linkages with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Humid subtropical China is an “oasis” relative to other dry subtropics of the world due to the prevailing of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Although many long climate sensitive tree-rings have been published to understand the historical climate change over various regions in China, long tree-ring chronologies in humid subtropical China are rare due to the difficulty to find old growth trees. This study established a tree-ring chronology spanning from 1776 to 2016 from Cryptomeria fortunei Hooibrenk ex Otto et Dietr in Liancheng area of humid subtropical China, which is also currently the longest chronology in Fujian province. Similar to the climate-growth relationships in neighboring regions, our tree-ring chronology is limited by cold temperature in winter and spring and drought in summer. In addition, a drought stress before the growing season also played a role in limiting the growth of our tree rings. Our climate sensitive tree rings showed different correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in different periods, possibly via modulation of the EASM.