Ice volume and sea level during the last interglacial

A Late Pleistocene coastal ecosystem in French Guiana was hyperdiverse relative to today

Warmer temperatures and higher sea level than today characterized the Last Interglacial interval [Pleistocene, 128 to 116 thousand years ago (ka)]. This period is a remarkable deep-time analog for temperature and sea-level conditions as projected for 2100 AD, yet there has been no evidence of fossil assemblages in the equatorial Atlantic. Here, we report foraminifer, metazoan (mollusks, bony fish, bryozoans, decapods, and sharks among others), and plant communities of coastal tropical marine and mangrove affinities, dating precisely from a ca. 130 to 115 ka time interval near the Equator, at Kourou, in French Guiana. These communities include ca. 230 recent species, some being endangered today and/or first recorded as fossils. The hyperdiverse Kourou mollusk assemblage suggests stronger affinities between Guianese and Caribbean coastal waters by the Last Interglacial than today, questioning the structuring role of the Amazon Plume on tropical Western Atlantic communities at the time. Grassland-dominated pollen, phytoliths, and charcoals from younger deposits in the same sections attest to a marine retreat and dryer conditions during the onset of the last glacial (ca. 110 to 50 ka), with a savanna-dominated landscape and episodes of fire. Charcoals from the last millennia suggest human presence in a mosaic of modern-like continental habitats. Our results provide key information about the ecology and biogeography of pristine Pleistocene tropical coastal ecosystems, especially relevant regarding the-widely anthropogenic-ongoing global warming.

Past volcanic activity predisposes an endemic threatened seabird to negative anthropogenic impacts

Humans are regularly cited as the main driver of current biodiversity extinction, but the impact of historic volcanic activity is often overlooked. Pre-human evidence of wildlife abundance and diversity are essential for disentangling anthropogenic impacts from natural events. Réunion Island, with its intense and well-documented volcanic activity, endemic biodiversity, long history of isolation and recent human colonization, provides an opportunity to disentangle these processes. We track past demographic changes of a critically endangered seabird, the Mascarene petrel Pseudobulweria aterrima, using genome-wide SNPs. Coalescent modeling suggested that a large ancestral population underwent a substantial population decline in two distinct phases, ca. 125,000 and 37,000 years ago, coinciding with periods of major eruptions of Piton des Neiges. Subsequently, the ancestral population was fragmented into the two known colonies, ca. 1500 years ago, following eruptions of Piton de la Fournaise. In the last century, both colonies declined significantly due to anthropogenic activities, and although the species was initially considered extinct, it was rediscovered in the 1970s. Our findings suggest that the current conservation status of wildlife on volcanic islands should be firstly assessed as a legacy of historic volcanic activity, and thereafter by the increasing anthropogenic impacts, which may ultimately drive species towards extinction.

Influence of reef isostasy, dynamic topography, and glacial isostatic adjustment on sea-level records in Northeastern Australia

Understanding sea level during the peak of the Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) is important for assessing future ice-sheet dynamics in response to climate change. The coasts and continental shelves of northeastern Australia (Queensland) preserve an extensive Last Interglacial record in the facies of coastal strandplains onland and fossil reefs offshore. However, there is a discrepancy, amounting to tens of meters, in the elevation of sea-level indicators between offshore and onshore sites. Here, we assess the influence of geophysical processes that may have changed the elevation of these sea-level indicators. We modeled sea-level change due to dynamic topography, glacial isostatic adjustment, and isostatic adjustment due to coral reef loading. We find that these processes caused relative sea-level changes on the order of, respectively, 10 m, 5 m, and 0.3 m. Of these geophysical processes, the dynamic topography predictions most closely match the tilting observed between onshore and offshore sea-level markers.

Higher sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial weakened the South Asian monsoon

Understanding the drivers of South Asian monsoon intensity is pivotal for improving climate forecasting under global warming scenarios. Solar insolation is assumed to be the dominant driver of monsoon variability in warm climate regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data. We report a South Asian monsoon rainfall record spanning the last ∼130 kyr in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river catchment. Our multiproxy data reveal that the South Asian monsoon was weaker during the Last Interglacial (130 to 115 ka)—despite higher insolation—than during the Holocene (11.6 ka to present), thus questioning the widely accepted model assumption. Our work implies that Indian Ocean warming may increase the occurrence of severe monsoon failures in South Asia.

Addressing and anticipating future South Asian monsoon changes under continuing global warming is of critical importance for the food security and socioeconomic well-being of one-quarter of the world’s population. However, climate model projections show discrepancies in future monsoon variability in South Asian monsoon domains, largely due to our still limited understanding of the monsoon response to warm climate change scenarios. Particularly, climate models are largely based on the assumption that higher solar insolation causes higher rainfall during similar warm climatic regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data for different interglacial periods. Here, we compare Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability during the Last Interglacial and Holocene using a sedimentary leaf wax δD and δ¹³C record from the northern Bay of Bengal, representing the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (G-B-M) river catchment. In combination with a seawater salinity record, our results show that ISM intensity broadly follows summer insolation on orbital scales, but ISM intensity during the Last Interglacial was lower than during the Holocene despite higher summer insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations. We argue that sustained warmer sea surface temperature in the equatorial and tropical Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial increased convective rainfall above the ocean but dampened ISM intensity on land. Our study demonstrates that besides solar insolation, internal climatic feedbacks also play an important role for South Asian monsoon variability during warm climate states. This work can help to improve future climate model projections and highlights the importance of understanding controls of monsoonal rainfall under interglacial boundary conditions.

Environmental Niche Dynamics of Blue Grama (Bouteloua gracilis) Ecotypes in Northern Mexico: Genetic Structure and Implications for Restoration Management

Understanding the genetic structure adopted by natural populations and its relation to environmental adaptation is critical for the success of restoration programs. We evaluated the genetic structure and temporal environmental niche dynamics of blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis) in 48 populations. The genetic evaluation was performed through amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) molecular markers. The maximum entropy method was used to model the past, present, and future environmental niches of the three clusters derived from the genetic analysis. The environmental niches of the three genetic clusters showed dynamic overlaps and isolations during the last interglacial and glacial maximum. The paleoclimatic events, which occurred during those periods, may have reinforced genetic exchange among populations and affected their genetic structure. Genetic clusters also presented different environmental niches in the present. Thus, they can be considered as three distinct ecotypes and restoration programs must be carried out using local germplasm from each environmental niche to increase their chance of success. Based on the environmental niches of the genetic clusters, changes are expected in the near and mid-century future. Therefore, climate change must be considered for species conservation management and future restoration programs.

Abrupt climate changes in the last two deglaciations simulated with different Northern ice sheet discharge and insolation

There were significant differences between the last two deglaciations, particularly in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic warming in the deglaciations and the following interglacials. Here, we present transient simulations of deglaciation using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model for the last two deglaciations focusing on the impact of ice sheet discharge on climate changes associated with the AMOC in the first part, and the sensitivity studies using a Northern Hemisphere ice sheet model in the second part. We show that a set of abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation, including Bolling–Allerod warming, the Younger Dryas, and onset of the Holocene were simulated with gradual changes of both ice sheet discharge and radiative forcing. On the other hand, penultimate deglaciation, with the abrupt climate change only at the beginning of the last interglacial was simulated when the ice sheet discharge was greater than in the last deglaciation by a factor of 1.5. The results, together with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet model experiments suggest the importance of the transient climate and AMOC responses to the different orbital forcing conditions of the last two deglaciations, through the mechanisms of mass loss of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet and meltwater influx to the ocean.

Phylogeography of Otaria flavescens (Carnivora: Pinnipedia): unravelling genetic connectivity at the southernmost limit of its distribution

The Pleistocene glacial period shaped the current genetic structure of numerous species. The last glacial dynamics has been proposed to have split the South American sea lion, Otaria flavescens, into two Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs), one on each side of the continent. However, previous studies have not provided genetic information on colonies found along 3000 km of coastline of the southernmost limit of the species distribution, where gene flow could occur. We conducted an exhaustive phylogeographical analysis of O. flavescens using a mtDNA marker, including, for the first time, data from colonies living south of latitude 45° S, in the Argentinian provinces of Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego. Our results indicated the presence of five Conservation Units across the distribution range of O. flavescens and suggest that the Patagonian population must have expanded about 150 000 BP. We found evidence for gene flow across the entire species range, supporting a scenario of secondary contact in Tierra del Fuego where representatives of the oldest lineages coexist. The presence of gene flow between oceans leads us to reject the assumption of complete reciprocal monophyly for mtDNA between the presumed ESUs, suggesting that the species constitutes a single Evolutionarily Significant Unit.

Sea-level trends across The Bahamas constrain peak last interglacial ice melt

During the last interglacial (LIG) period, global mean sea level (GMSL) was higher than at present, likely driven by greater high-latitude insolation. Past sea-level estimates require elevation measurements and age determination of marine sediments that formed at or near sea level, and those elevations must be corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). However, this GIA correction is subject to uncertainties in the GIA model inputs, namely, Earth's rheology and past ice history, which reduces precision and accuracy in estimates of past GMSL. To better constrain the GIA process, we compare our data and existing LIG sea-level data across the Bahamian archipelago with a suite of 576 GIA model predictions. We calculated weights for each GIA model based on how well the model fits spatial trends in the regional sea-level data and then used the weighted GIA corrections to revise estimates of GMSL during the LIG. During the LIG, we find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 1.2 m higher than today, and it is very unlikely (5% probability) to have exceeded 5.3 m. Estimates increase by up to 30% (decrease by up to 20%) for portions of melt that originate from the Greenland ice sheet (West Antarctic ice sheet). Altogether, this work suggests that LIG GMSL may be lower than previously assumed.

Genetic structure and temporal environmental niche dynamics of sideoats grama [Bouteloua curtipendula (Michx.) Torr.] populations in Mexico

In the past years, several plant breeding programs have been done to select outstanding genotypes of sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula) for restoration purposes. Such programs have been focused mainly on agronomic traits; however, little attention has been paid to the genetic structure and environmental adaptation of the selected genotypes. Thus, in this study we evaluated the genetic structure of 85 sideoats grama populations in Mexico. In addition, we modeled the past, present and future environmental niche of the genetic clusters of this species. Ninety sideoats grama populations were genetically analyzed through AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms) markers. The environmental niche of the population clusters was modeled by using the maximum entropy method. The genetic analysis separated the populations into two genetically different clusters (p = 0.0003). The differentiation of these lineages can be partially explained by the paleoclimatic events experienced during the last interglacial and glacial maximums. Consequently, the genetic clusters have different environmental niche at the present time. Suitability areas for the distribution of Cluster I are mainly located in the central part of the country while the environmental niche of Cluster II is located in the semiarid region, close to the mountain range of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Thus, selection and restoration programs with sideoats grama must be carried out using local germplasm from each environmental niche. Given the environmental niche of both genetic clusters will suffer changes in the near and mid-century future, climate change must be considered for genotypes selection and restoration programs.

Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

Geodetic, seismic, and geological evidence indicates that West Antarctica is underlain by low-viscosity shallow mantle. Thus, as marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated during past interglacials, or will retreat in the future, exposed bedrock will rebound rapidly and flux meltwater out into the open ocean. Previous studies have suggested that this contribution to global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is small and occurs slowly. We challenge this notion using sea level predictions that incorporate both the outflux mechanism and complex three-dimensional viscoelastic mantle structure. In the case of the last interglacial, where the GMSL contribution from WAIS collapse is often cited as ~3 to 4 meters, the outflux mechanism contributes ~1 meter of additional GMSL change within ~1 thousand years of the collapse. Using a projection of future WAIS collapse, we also demonstrate that the outflux can substantially amplify GMSL rise estimates over the next century.

Infrastructure Is Key to Make Cities Sustainable

Infrastructure is all around us: under, above, even inside our built and natural landscapes. Sometimes hidden, sometimes visible. The flows that course through them make our cities, economies, and lives possible. Cities could not even exist without infrastructure. Life is endowed with more possibilities by infrastructure. The centrality of infrastructure is pervasive. Worldwide, cities embrace infrastructure for economic competitiveness, well-being, access, environmental protection and knowledge creation. As cities are crucibles that concentrate the human condition, infrastructures are conduits that enable that concentration and empower human achievement. As infrastructures shape almost every aspect of daily life, this article assays the various ways it currently makes places both less sustainable and resilient, as well as more so, and how we can minimise the former and optimise the latter.

Oceanic forcing of penultimate deglacial and last interglacial sea-level rise

Sea-level histories during the two most recent deglacial-interglacial intervals show substantial differences^1-3 despite both periods undergoing similar changes in global mean temperature^4,5 and forcing from greenhouse gases⁶. Although the last interglaciation (LIG) experienced stronger boreal summer insolation forcing than the present interglaciation⁷, understanding why LIG global mean sea level may have been six to nine metres higher than today has proven particularly challenging². Extensive areas of polar ice sheets were grounded below sea level during both glacial and interglacial periods, with grounding lines and fringing ice shelves extending onto continental shelves⁸. This suggests that oceanic forcing by subsurface warming may also have contributed to ice-sheet loss^9-12 analogous to ongoing changes in the Antarctic^13,14 and Greenland¹⁵ ice sheets. Such forcing would have been especially effective during glacial periods, when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) experienced large variations on millennial timescales¹⁶, with a reduction of the AMOC causing subsurface warming throughout much of the Atlantic basin^9,12,17. Here we show that greater subsurface warming induced by the longer period of reduced AMOC during the penultimate deglaciation can explain the more-rapid sea-level rise compared with the last deglaciation. This greater forcing also contributed to excess loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the LIG, causing global mean sea level to rise at least four metres above modern levels. When accounting for the combined influences of penultimate and LIG deglaciation on glacial isostatic adjustment, this excess loss of polar ice during the LIG can explain much of the relative sea level recorded by fossil coral reefs and speleothems at intermediate- and far-field sites.

A revised Holocene coral sea-level database from the Florida reef tract, USA

The coral reefs and mangrove habitats of the south Florida region have long been used in sea-level studies for the western Atlantic because of their broad geographic extent and composition of sea-level tracking biota. The data from this region have been used to support several very different Holocene sea-level reconstructions (SLRs) over the years. However, many of these SLRs did not incorporate all available coral-based data, in part because detailed characterizations necessary for inclusion into sea-level databases were lacking. Here, we present an updated database comprised of 303 coral samples from published sources that we extensively characterized for the first time. The data were carefully screened by evaluating and ranking the visual taphonomic characteristics of every dated sample within the database, which resulted in the identification of 134 high-quality coral samples for consideration as suitable sea-level indicators. We show that our database largely agrees with the most recent SLR for south Florida over the last ∼7,000 years; however, the early Holocene remains poorly characterized because there are few high-quality data spanning this period. Suggestions to refine future Holocene SLRs in the region are provided including filling spatial and temporal data gaps of coral samples, particularly from the early Holocene, as well as constructing a more robust peat database to better constrain sea-level variability during the middle to late Holocene. Our database and taphonomic-ranking protocol provide a framework for researchers to evaluate data-selection criteria depending on the robustness of their sea-level models.

Genetic diversity of a widespread annual killifish from coastal Tanzania

Background

African annual killifishes (Nothobranchius spp.) are adapted to seasonally desiccating habitats (ephemeral pools), surviving dry periods as dormant eggs. Given their peculiar life history, geographic aspects of their diversity uniquely combine patterns typical for freshwater taxa (river basin structure and elevation gradient) and terrestrial animals (rivers acting as major dispersal barriers). However, our current knowledge on fine-scale inter-specific and intra-specific genetic diversity of African annual fish is limited to a single, particularly dry region of their distribution (subtropical Mozambique). Using a widespread annual killifish from coastal Tanzania and Kenya, we tested whether the same pattern of genetic divergence pertains to a wet equatorial region in the centre of Nothobranchius distribution.

Results

In populations of Nothobranchius melanospilus species group across its range, we genotyped a part of mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI) gene (83 individuals from 22 populations) and 10 nuclear microsatellite markers (251 individuals from 16 populations). We found five lineages with a clear phylogeographic structure but frequent secondary contact. Mitochondrial lineages were largely congruent with main population genetic clusters identified on microsatellite markers. In the upper Wami basin, populations are isolated as a putative Nothobranchius prognathus, but include also a population from a periphery of the middle Ruvu basin. Other four lineages (including putative Nothobranchius kwalensis) coexisted in secondary contact zones, but possessed clear spatial pattern. Main river channels did not form apparent barriers to dispersal. The most widespread lineage had strong signal of recent population expansion.

Conclusions

We conclude that dispersal of a Nothobranchius species from a wet part of the genus distribution (tropical lowland) is not constrained by main river channels and closely related lineages frequently coexist in secondary contact zones. We also demonstrate contemporary connection between the Ruvu and Rufiji river basins. Our data do not provide genetic support for existence of recently described cryptic species from N. melanospilus complex, but cannot resolve this issue.

Agreement between reconstructed and modeled boreal precipitation of the Last Interglacial

The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG.

Preliminary Analysis of European Small Mammal Faunas of the Eemian Interglacial: Species Composition and Species Diversity at a Regional Scale

Small mammal remains obtained from the European localities dated to the Eemian (Mikulino) age have been analyzed for the first time at a regional scale based on the present biogeographical regionalization of Europe. The regional faunas dated to the warm interval in the first part of the Late Pleistocene display notable differences in fauna composition, species richness, and diversity indices. The classification of regional faunal assemblages revealed distinctive features of small mammal faunas in Eastern and Western Europe during the Eemian (=Mikulino, =Ipswichian) Interglacial. Faunas of the Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula, and Sardinia Island appear to deviate from the other regions. In the Eemian Interglacial, the maximum species richness of small mammals (≥40 species) with a relatively high proportion of typical forest species was recorded in Western and Central Europe and in the western part of Eastern Europe. The lowest species richness (5–14 species) was typical of island faunas and of those in the north of Eastern Europe. The data obtained make it possible to reconstruct the distribution of forest biotopes and open habitats (forest-steppe and steppe) in various regions of Europe. Noteworthy is a limited area of forests in the south and in the northeastern part of Europe. In these regions, it seems likely that under conditions of relatively high temperatures characteristic of the Last Interglacial and an insufficient moisture supply there could exist open forest stands or forest-steppe landscapes, as suggested by the presence of species indicative of forest-steppe and steppe north of the forest zone. The results obtained are useful in modeling changes in the mammal faunas as well as environmental changes in entire Europe due to global climatic changes (including the global warming recorded at present).

Tides in the Last Interglacial: insights from notch geometry and palaeo tidal models in Bonaire, Netherland Antilles

The study of past sea levels relies largely on the interpretation of sea-level indicators. Palaeo tidal notches are considered as one of the most precise sea-level indicators as their formation is closely tied to the local tidal range. We present geometric measurements of modern and palaeo (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e) tidal notches on Bonaire (southern Caribbean Sea) and results from two tidal simulations, using the present-day bathymetry and a palaeo-bathymetry. We use these two tools to investigate changes in the tidal range since MIS 5e. Our models show that the tidal range changes most significantly in shallow areas, whereas both, notch geometry and models results, suggest that steeper continental shelves, such as the ones bordering the island of Bonaire, are less affected to changes in tidal range in conditions of MIS 5e sea levels. We use our data and results to discuss the importance of considering changes in tidal range while reconstructing MIS 5e sea level histories, and we remark that it is possible to use hydrodynamic modelling and notch geometry as first-order proxies to assess whether, in a particular area, tidal range might have been different in MIS 5e with respect to today.

The disjunct pattern of the Neotropical harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Gonyleptidae) explained by climate-driven range shifts in the Quaternary: Paleodistributional and molecular evidence

The disjunct distribution of the harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Opiliones, Gonyleptidae) is used as a case study to test the hypothesis of a trans-Chaco Pleistocene paleobridge during range expansion stages. This would have temporarily connected humid regions (‘Mesopotamia’ in northeastern Argentina, and the ‘Yungas’ in the northwest, NWA) in the subtropical and temperate South American lowlands. The present study combines two independent approaches: paleodistributional reconstruction, using the Species Distribution Modeling method MaxEnt and projection onto Quaternary paleoclimates (6 kya, 21 kya, 130 kya), and phylogeographic analyses based on the cytochrome oxidase subunit I molecular marker. Models predict a maximal shrinkage during the warm Last Interglacial (130 kya), and the rise of the hypothesized paleobridge in the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kya), revealing that cold-dry stages (not warm-humid ones, as supposed) enabled the range expansion of this species. The disjunction was formed in the mid-Holocene (6 kya) and is intensified under current conditions. The median-joining network shows that NWA haplotypes are peripherally related to different Mesopotamian lineages; haplotypes from Santa Fe and Córdoba Provinces consistently occupy central positions in the network. According to the dated phylogeny, Mesopotamia-NWA expansion events would have occurred in the last glacial period, in many cases closely associated to the Last Glacial Maximum, with most divergence events occurring shortly thereafter. Only two (out of nine) NWA haplotypes are shared with Mesopotamian localities. A single, presumably relictual NWA haplotype was found to have diverged much earlier, suggesting an ancient expansion event not recoverable by the paleodistributional models. Different measures of sequence statistics, genetic diversity, population structure and history of demographic changes are provided. This research offers the first available evidence for the historical origin of NWA disjunct populations of a Mesopotamian harvestman.

Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic

As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ∼128-116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past "superstorms," they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

Arctic Ocean sea ice cover during the penultimate glacial and the last interglacial

Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades and climate scenarios suggest that sea ice may completely disappear during summer within the next about 50–100 years. Here we produce Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy records for the penultimate glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 6) and the subsequent last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e). The latter is a time interval when the high latitudes were significantly warmer than today. We document that even under such warmer climate conditions, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Our proxy reconstruction of the last interglacial sea ice cover is supported by climate simulations, although some proxy data/model inconsistencies still exist. During late Marine Isotope Stage 6, polynya-type conditions occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins, contradicting a giant Marine Isotope Stage 6 ice shelf that covered the entire Arctic Ocean.

Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades. Here, using biomarker records, the authors show that permanent sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean during the last interglacial, when high latitudes were warmer than present.

Genetic Patterns of Myrceugenia correifolia, a Rare Species of Fog-Dependent Forests of Mediterranean Chile: Is It a Climatic Relict?

Rare species frequently occur in areas with microclimatic conditions that are atypical for their regions, but that were more common in the past, and that probably have operated as climatic refugia for a long time. Myrceugenia correifolia is a rare arboreal species that grows in deep canyons and hilltops of the Coast Range of north-central Chile between 30° and 35°S. In the northern edge of its distribution M. correifolia grows in small patches of fog-dependent forest surrounding by xeric vegetation. These forest formations are thought to be remnants of an ancient and continuous rainforest that according to some authors became fragmented during aridization of the Neogene (Neogene relict) and to others during warm-dry cycles of the Pleistocene (glacial relicts). Here we asked whether the northernmost populations of M. correifolia are Neogene relicts, glacial relicts, or the result of a recent northward colonization. To answer this question we examined genetic diversity and population divergence of M. correifolia using microsatellite markers, tested various competing population history scenarios with an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method, and complemented these data with ecological niche modeling (ENM). We detected three genetic clusters with a distinctive latitudinal pattern (north, center, and south) and high levels of differentiation (F_ST = 0.36). Demographic inference supported an admixture event 31 kya between two populations that diverged from an ancient population 139 kya. The admixture time coincides with the beginning of a period of wet conditions in north-central Chile that extended from 33 to 19 kya and was preceded by dry and cold conditions. These results suggest that increased precipitation during glacial periods triggered northward expansion of the range of M. correifolia, with subsequent admixture between populations that remained separated during interglacial periods. Accordingly, ENM models showed that suitable habitats for M. correifolia in north-central Chile were larger and less fragmented during the Last Glacial Maximum than at present, suggesting that northernmost populations of this species are glacial relicts.

Detection of a dynamic topography signal in last interglacial sea-level records

Estimating minimum ice volume during the last interglacial based on local sea-level indicators requires that these indicators are corrected for processes that alter local sea level relative to the global average. Although glacial isostatic adjustment is generally accounted for, global scale dynamic changes in topography driven by convective mantle flow are generally not considered. We use numerical models of mantle flow to quantify vertical deflections caused by dynamic topography and compare predictions at passive margins to a globally distributed set of last interglacial sea-level markers. The deflections predicted as a result of dynamic topography are significantly correlated with marker elevations (>95% probability) and are consistent with construction and preservation attributes across marker types. We conclude that a dynamic topography signal is present in the elevation of last interglacial sea-level records and that the signal must be accounted for in any effort to determine peak global mean sea level during the last interglacial to within an accuracy of several meters.

A potential third Manta Ray species near the Yucatán Peninsula? Evidence for a recently diverged and novel genetic Manta group from the Gulf of Mexico

We present genetic and morphometric support for a third, distinct, and recently diverged group of Manta ray that appears resident to the Yucatán coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Individuals of the genus Manta from Isla Holbox are markedly different from the other described manta rays in their morphology, habitat preference, and genetic makeup. Herein referred to as the Yucatán Manta Ray, these individuals form two genetically distinct groups: (1) a group of mtDNA haplotypes divergent (0.78%) from the currently recognized Manta birostris and M. alfredi species, and (2) a group possessing mtDNA haplotypes of M. birostris and highly similar haplotypes. The latter suggests the potential for either introgressive hybridization between Yucatán Manta Rays and M. birostris, or the retention of ancestral M. birostris signatures among Yucatán Manta Rays. Divergence of the genetically distinct Yucatán Manta Ray from M. birostris appears quite recent (<100,000 YBP) following fit to an Isolation-with-Migration model, with additional support for asymmetrical gene flow from M. birostris into the Yucatán Manta Ray. Formal naming of the Yucatán Manta Ray cannot yet be assigned until an in-depth taxonomic study and further confirmation of the genetic identity of existing type specimens has been performed.

Ocean mixing and ice-sheet control of seawater 234U/238U during the last deglaciation

Seawater ²³⁴U/²³⁸U provides global-scale information about continental weathering and is vital for marine uranium-series geochronology. Existing evidence supports an increase in ²³⁴U/²³⁸U since the last glacial period, but the timing and amplitude of its variability has been poorly constrained. Here we report two seawater ²³⁴U/²³⁸U records based on well-preserved deep-sea corals from the low-latitude Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Atlantic ²³⁴U/²³⁸U started to increase before major sea-level rise and overshot the modern value by 3 per mil during the early deglaciation. Deglacial ²³⁴U/²³⁸U in the Pacific converged with that in the Atlantic after the abrupt resumption of Atlantic meridional overturning. We suggest that ocean mixing and early deglacial release of excess ²³⁴U from enhanced subglacial melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have driven the observed ²³⁴U/²³⁸U evolution.

Pleistocene phylogeography and cryptic diversity of a tiger beetle, Calomera littoralis, in North-Eastern Mediterranean and Pontic regions inferred from mitochondrial COI gene sequences

Background. Calomera littoralis is a Palearctic species, widely distributed in Europe; inhabiting predominantly its Atlantic, Mediterranean and Black Sea coastlines. Methods. Its phylogeography on the Balkan Peninsula and on the north-western Black Sea coast was inferred using a 697 bp long portion of the mitochondrial COI gene, amplified from 169 individuals collected on 43 localities. Results. The results revealed two genetically divergent groups/lineages, the southern one inhabiting both the Balkan Peninsula and the Pontic Region and the northern one found exclusively in the Pontic Region. Species delimitation based on DNA barcoding gap suggested an interspecific level of divergence between these groups. Multivariate analysis of eight male and female morphometric traits detected no difference between the groups, implying they may represent cryptic species. The Bayesian time-calibrated reconstruction of phylogeny suggested that the lineages diverged ca. 2.3 Ma, in early Pleistocene. Discussion. The presence of the two genetically divergent groups results most likely from contemporary isolation of the Pontic basin from the Mediterranean that broke the continuous strip of coastal habitats inhabited by C. littoralis. Demographic analyses indicated that both lineages have been in demographic and spatial expansion since ca. 0.15 Ma. It coincides with the terminal stage of MIS-6, i.e., Wartanian/Saalian glaciation, and beginning of MIS-5e, i.e., Eemian interglacial, during which, due to eustatic sea level rise, a wide connection between Mediterranean and the Pontic basin was re-established. This, along with re-appearance of coastal habitats could initiate north-east expansion of the southern lineage and its secondary contact with the northern one. The isolation of the Pontic basin from the Mediterranean during the Weichselian glaciation most likely did not have any effect on their phylogeography.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records.

Tropical Atlantic temperature seasonality at the end of the last interglacial

The end of the last interglacial period, ~118 kyr ago, was characterized by substantial ocean circulation and climate perturbations resulting from instabilities of polar ice sheets. These perturbations are crucial for a better understanding of future climate change. The seasonal temperature changes of the tropical ocean, however, which play an important role in seasonal climate extremes such as hurricanes, floods and droughts at the present day, are not well known for this period that led into the last glacial. Here we present a monthly resolved snapshot of reconstructed sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean for 117.7±0.8 kyr ago, using coral Sr/Ca and δ¹⁸O records. We find that temperature seasonality was similar to today, which is consistent with the orbital insolation forcing. Our coral and climate model results suggest that temperature seasonality of the tropical surface ocean is controlled mainly by orbital insolation changes during interglacials.

The last interglacial has been suggested as a test bed for models developed for future climate prediction, yet many climatic parameters remain unknown. Here, the authors present a precisely dated fossil coral and show that temperature seasonality in the southern Caribbean Sea 118 ka was similar to today.

A stagnation event in the deep South Atlantic during the last interglacial period

During the last interglacial period, global temperatures were ~2°C warmer than at present and sea level was 6 to 8 meters higher. Southern Ocean sediments reveal a spike in authigenic uranium 127,000 years ago, within the last interglacial, reflecting decreased oxygenation of deep water by Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Unlike ice age reductions in AABW, the interglacial stagnation event appears decoupled from open ocean conditions and may have resulted from coastal freshening due to mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet. AABW reduction coincided with increased North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, and the subsequent reinvigoration in AABW coincided with reduced NADW formation. Thus, alternation of deep water formation between the Antarctic and the North Atlantic, believed to characterize ice ages, apparently also occurs in warm climates.

Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet's dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to -134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 10(6) km(3) greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka(-1) punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5-14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y(-1) (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100-150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15-20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

Coastal structure, sea-level changes and vertical motion of the land in the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean basin is an important area of the Earth for studying the interplay between geodynamic processes and landscape evolution affected by tectonic, glacio-hydro-isostatic and eustatic factors. We focus on determining vertical deformations and relative sea-level change of the coastal zone utilizing geological, archaeological, historical and instrumental data, and modelling. For deformation determinations on recent decadal to centennial time scales, seismic strain analysis based on about 6000 focal mechanisms, surface deformation analysis based on some 850 continuous GPS stations, and 57 tide gauge records were used. Utilizing data from tectonically stable areas, reference surfaces were established to separate tectonic and climate (eustatic) signals throughout the basin for the last 20 000 years. Predominant Holocene subsidence (west coast of Italy, northern Adriatic sea, most of Greece and Turkey are areas at risk of flooding owing to relative sea-level rise), uplift (local areas in southwestern Italy and southern Greece) or stability (northwestern and central western Mediterranean and Levant area) were determined. Superimposed on the long trends, the coasts are also impacted by sudden extreme events such as recurring large storms and numerous, but unpredictable tsunamis caused by the high seismicity of parts of the basins.

Supplementary material:

A table of locations and timings of the largest tsunamis in the Mediterranean during the last 5660 years BP is available at http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/SUP18757.

A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise

During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Warm climates of the past--a lesson for the future?

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10-11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled 'Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?', brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.

How warm was the last interglacial? New model-data comparisons

A Community Climate System Model, Version 3 (CCSM3) simulation for 125 ka during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is compared to two recent proxy reconstructions to evaluate surface temperature changes from modern times. The dominant forcing change from modern, the orbital forcing, modified the incoming solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere, resulting in large positive anomalies in boreal summer. Greenhouse gas concentrations are similar to those of the pre-industrial (PI) Holocene. CCSM3 simulates an enhanced seasonal cycle over the Northern Hemisphere continents with warming most developed during boreal summer. In addition, year-round warming over the North Atlantic is associated with a seasonal memory of sea ice retreat in CCSM3, which extends the effects of positive summer insolation anomalies on the high-latitude oceans to winter months. The simulated Arctic terrestrial annual warming, though, is much less than the observational evidence, suggesting either missing feedbacks in the simulation and/or interpretation of the proxies. Over Antarctica, CCSM3 cannot reproduce the large LIG warming recorded by the Antarctic ice cores, even with simulations designed to consider observed evidence of early LIG warmth in Southern Ocean and Antarctica records and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Comparisons with a HadCM3 simulation indicate that sea ice is important for understanding model polar responses. Overall, the models simulate little global annual surface temperature change, while the proxy reconstructions suggest a global annual warming at LIG (as compared to the PI Holocene) of approximately 1(°)C, though with possible spatial sampling biases. The CCSM3 SRES B1 (low scenario) future projections suggest high-latitude warmth similar to that reconstructed for the LIG may be exceeded before the end of this century.

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core

Efforts to extract a Greenland ice core with a complete record of the Eemian interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) have until now been unsuccessful. The response of the Greenland ice sheet to the warmer-than-present climate of the Eemian has thus remained unclear. Here we present the new North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling ('NEEM') ice core and show only a modest ice-sheet response to the strong warming in the early Eemian. We reconstructed the Eemian record from folded ice using globally homogeneous parameters known from dated Greenland and Antarctic ice-core records. On the basis of water stable isotopes, NEEM surface temperatures after the onset of the Eemian (126,000 years ago) peaked at 8 ± 4 degrees Celsius above the mean of the past millennium, followed by a gradual cooling that was probably driven by the decreasing summer insolation. Between 128,000 and 122,000 years ago, the thickness of the northwest Greenland ice sheet decreased by 400 ± 250 metres, reaching surface elevations 122,000 years ago of 130 ± 300 metres lower than the present. Extensive surface melt occurred at the NEEM site during the Eemian, a phenomenon witnessed when melt layers formed again at NEEM during the exceptional heat of July 2012. With additional warming, surface melt might become more common in the future.