Microbial evolution. Global epistasis makes adaptation predictable despite sequence-level stochasticity

Evolution of evolvability in rapidly adapting populations

Mutations can alter the short-term fitness of an organism, as well as the rates and benefits of future mutations. While numerous examples of these evolvability modifiers have been observed in rapidly adapting microbial populations, existing theory struggles to predict when they will be favoured by natural selection. Here we develop a mathematical framework for predicting the fates of genetic variants that modify the rates and benefits of future mutations in linked genomic regions. We derive analytical expressions showing how the fixation probabilities of these variants depend on the size of the population and the diversity of competing mutations. We find that competition between linked mutations can dramatically enhance selection for modifiers that increase the benefits of future mutations, even when they impose a strong direct cost on fitness. However, we also find that modest direct benefits can be sufficient to drive evolutionary dead ends to fixation. Our results suggest that subtle differences in evolvability could play an important role in shaping the long-term success of genetic variants in rapidly evolving microbial populations.

Extreme positive epistasis for fitness in monosomic yeast strains

The loss of a single chromosome in a diploid organism halves the dosage of many genes and is usually accompanied by a substantial decrease in fitness. We asked whether this decrease simply reflects the joint damage caused by individual gene dosage deficiencies. We measured the fitness effects of single heterozygous gene deletions in yeast and combined them for each chromosome. This predicted a negative growth rate, that is, lethality, for multiple monosomies. However, monosomic strains remained alive and grew as if much (often most) of the damage caused by single mutations had disappeared, revealing an exceptionally large and positive epistatic component of fitness. We looked for functional explanations by analyzing the transcriptomes. There was no evidence of increased (compensatory) gene expression on the monosomic chromosomes. Nor were there signs of the cellular stress response that would be expected if monosomy led to protein destabilization and thus cytotoxicity. Instead, all monosomic strains showed extensive upregulation of genes encoding ribosomal proteins, but in an indiscriminate manner that did not correspond to their altered dosage. This response did not restore the stoichiometry required for efficient biosynthesis, which probably became growth limiting, making all other mutation-induced metabolic defects much less important. In general, the modular structure of the cell leads to an effective fragmentation of the total mutational load. Defects outside the module(s) currently defining fitness lose at least some of their relevance, producing the epiphenomenon of positive interactions between individually negative effects.

Efficient epistasis inference via higher-order covariance matrix factorization

Epistasis can profoundly influence evolutionary dynamics. Temporal genetic data, consisting of sequences sampled repeatedly from a population over time, provides a unique resource to understand how epistasis shapes evolution. However, detecting epistatic interactions from sequence data is technically challenging. Existing methods for identifying epistasis are computationally demanding, limiting their applicability to real-world data. Here, we present a novel computational method for inferring epistasis that significantly reduces computational costs without sacrificing accuracy. We validated our approach in simulations and applied it to study HIV-1 evolution over multiple years in a data set of 16 individuals. There we observed a strong excess of negative epistatic interactions between beneficial mutations, especially mutations involved in immune escape. Our method is general and could be used to characterize epistasis in other large data sets.

Environment-independent distribution of mutational effects emerges from microscopic epistasis

Predicting how new mutations alter phenotypes is difficult because mutational effects vary across genotypes and environments. Recently discovered global epistasis, in which the fitness effects of mutations scale with the fitness of the background genotype, can improve predictions, but how the environment modulates this scaling is unknown. We measured the fitness effects of ~100 insertion mutations in 42 strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae in six laboratory environments and found that the global epistasis scaling is nearly invariant across environments. Instead, the environment tunes one global parameter, the background fitness at which most mutations switch sign. As a consequence, the distribution of mutational effects is predictable across genotypes and environments. Our results suggest that the effective dimensionality of genotype-to-phenotype maps across environments is surprisingly low.

Patterns of Fitness and Gene Expression Epistasis Generated by Beneficial Mutations in the rho and rpoB Genes of Escherichia coli during High-Temperature Adaptation

Epistasis is caused by genetic interactions among mutations that affect fitness. To characterize properties and potential mechanisms of epistasis, we engineered eight double mutants that combined mutations from the rho and rpoB genes of Escherichia coli. The two genes encode essential functions for transcription, and the mutations in each gene were chosen because they were beneficial for adaptation to thermal stress (42.2 °C). The double mutants exhibited patterns of fitness epistasis that included diminishing returns epistasis at 42.2 °C, stronger diminishing returns between mutations with larger beneficial effects and both negative and positive (sign) epistasis across environments (20.0 °C and 37.0 °C). By assessing gene expression between single and double mutants, we detected hundreds of genes with gene expression epistasis. Previous work postulated that highly connected hub genes in coexpression networks have low epistasis, but we found the opposite: hub genes had high epistasis values in both coexpression and protein-protein interaction networks. We hypothesized that elevated epistasis in hub genes reflected that they were enriched for targets of Rho termination but that was not the case. Altogether, gene expression and coexpression analyses revealed that thermal adaptation occurred in modules, through modulation of ribonucleotide biosynthetic processes and ribosome assembly, the attenuation of expression in genes related to heat shock and stress responses, and with an overall trend toward restoring gene expression toward the unstressed state.

Spindle architecture constrains karyotype evolution

The eukaryotic cell division machinery must rapidly and reproducibly duplicate and partition the cell's chromosomes in a carefully coordinated process. However, chromosome numbers vary dramatically between genomes, even on short evolutionary timescales. We sought to understand how the mitotic machinery senses and responds to karyotypic changes by using a series of budding yeast strains in which the native chromosomes have been successively fused. Using a combination of cell biological profiling, genetic engineering and experimental evolution, we show that chromosome fusions are well tolerated up until a critical point. Cells with fewer than five centromeres lack the necessary number of kinetochore-microtubule attachments needed to counter outward forces in the metaphase spindle, triggering the spindle assembly checkpoint and prolonging metaphase. Our findings demonstrate that spindle architecture is a constraining factor for karyotype evolution.

Environmental memory alters the fitness effects of adaptive mutations in fluctuating environments

Evolution in a static laboratory environment often proceeds via large-effect beneficial mutations that may become maladaptive in other environments. Conversely, natural settings require populations to endure environmental fluctuations. A sensible assumption is that the fitness of a lineage in a fluctuating environment is the time average of its fitness over the sequence of static conditions it encounters. However, transitions between conditions may pose entirely new challenges, which could cause deviations from this time average. To test this, we tracked hundreds of thousands of barcoded yeast lineages evolving in static and fluctuating conditions and subsequently isolated 900 mutants for pooled fitness assays in 15 environments. Here we find that fitness in fluctuating environments indeed often deviates from the time average, leading to fitness non-additivity. Moreover, closer examination reveals that fitness in one component of a fluctuating environment is often strongly influenced by the previous component. We show that this environmental memory is especially common for mutants with high variance in fitness across tested environments. We use a simple mathematical model and whole-genome sequencing to propose mechanisms underlying this effect, including lag time evolution and sensing mutations. Our results show that environmental fluctuations impact fitness and suggest that variance in static environments can explain these impacts.

Candida albicans' inorganic phosphate transport and evolutionary adaptation to phosphate scarcity

Phosphorus is essential in all cells' structural, metabolic and regulatory functions. For fungal cells that import inorganic phosphate (Pi) up a steep concentration gradient, surface Pi transporters are critical capacitators of growth. Fungi must deploy Pi transporters that enable optimal Pi uptake in pH and Pi concentration ranges prevalent in their environments. Single, triple and quadruple mutants were used to characterize the four Pi transporters we identified for the human fungal pathogen Candida albicans, which must adapt to alkaline conditions during invasion of the host bloodstream and deep organs. A high-affinity Pi transporter, Pho84, was most efficient across the widest pH range while another, Pho89, showed high-affinity characteristics only within one pH unit of neutral. Two low-affinity Pi transporters, Pho87 and Fgr2, were active only in acidic conditions. Only Pho84 among the Pi transporters was clearly required in previously identified Pi-related functions including Target of Rapamycin Complex 1 signaling, oxidative stress resistance and hyphal growth. We used in vitro evolution and whole genome sequencing as an unbiased forward genetic approach to probe adaptation to prolonged Pi scarcity of two quadruple mutant lineages lacking all 4 Pi transporters. Lineage-specific genomic changes corresponded to divergent success of the two lineages in fitness recovery during Pi limitation. Initial, large-scale genomic alterations like aneuploidies and loss of heterozygosity eventually resolved, as populations gained small-scale mutations. Severity of some phenotypes linked to Pi starvation, like cell wall stress hypersensitivity, decreased in parallel to evolving populations' fitness recovery in Pi scarcity, while severity of others like membrane stress responses diverged from Pi scarcity fitness. Among preliminary candidate genes for contributors to fitness recovery, those with links to TORC1 were overrepresented. Since Pi homeostasis differs substantially between fungi and humans, adaptive processes to Pi deprivation may harbor small-molecule targets that impact fungal growth, stress resistance and virulence.

Environment-independent distribution of mutational effects emerges from microscopic epistasis

Predicting how new mutations alter phenotypes is difficult because mutational effects vary across genotypes and environments. Recently discovered global epistasis, where the fitness effects of mutations scale with the fitness of the background genotype, can improve predictions, but how the environment modulates this scaling is unknown. We measured the fitness effects of ~100 insertion mutations in 42 strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae in six laboratory environments and found that the global-epistasis scaling is nearly invariant across environments. Instead, the environment tunes one global parameter, the background fitness at which most mutations switch sign. As a consequence, the distribution of mutational effects is predictable across genotypes and environments. Our results suggest that the effective dimensionality of genotype-to-phenotype maps across environments is surprisingly low.

The loci of environmental adaptation in a model eukaryote

While the underlying genetic changes have been uncovered in some cases of adaptive evolution, the lack of a systematic study prevents a general understanding of the genomic basis of adaptation. For example, it is unclear whether protein-coding or noncoding mutations are more important to adaptive evolution and whether adaptations to different environments are brought by genetic changes distributed in diverse genes and biological processes or concentrated in a core set. We here perform laboratory evolution of 3360 Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations in 252 environments of varying levels of stress. We find the yeast adaptations to be primarily fueled by large-effect coding mutations overrepresented in a relatively small gene set, despite prevalent antagonistic pleiotropy across environments. Populations generally adapt faster in more stressful environments, partly because of greater benefits of the same mutations in more stressful environments. These and other findings from this model eukaryote help unravel the genomic principles of environmental adaptation.

A simple rule for predicting function of microbial communities

Microbial communities perform many important functions, such as carbon sequestration, decomposition, pathogen resistance, etc., but quantitatively predicting functions of new communities remains a major challenge. In this issue of Cell, Diaz-Colunga et al. report a new simple statistical regularity that enables such predictions.

Global epistasis and the emergence of function in microbial consortia

The many functions of microbial communities emerge from a complex web of interactions between organisms and their environment. This poses a significant obstacle to engineering microbial consortia, hindering our ability to harness the potential of microorganisms for biotechnological applications. In this study, we demonstrate that the collective effect of ecological interactions between microbes in a community can be captured by simple statistical models that predict how adding a new species to a community will affect its function. These predictive models mirror the patterns of global epistasis reported in genetics, and they can be quantitatively interpreted in terms of pairwise interactions between community members. Our results illuminate an unexplored path to quantitatively predicting the function of microbial consortia from their composition, paving the way to optimizing desirable community properties and bringing the tasks of predicting biological function at the genetic, organismal, and ecological scales under the same quantitative formalism.

Biophysical principles predict fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants

SARS-CoV-2 employs its spike protein's receptor binding domain (RBD) to enter host cells. The RBD is constantly subjected to immune responses, while requiring efficient binding to host cell receptors for successful infection. However, our understanding of how RBD's biophysical properties contribute to SARS-CoV-2's epidemiological fitness remains largely incomplete. Through a comprehensive approach, comprising large-scale sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the identification of a fitness function based on binding thermodynamics, we unravel the relationship between the biophysical properties of RBD variants and their contribution to viral fitness. We developed a biophysical model that uses statistical mechanics to map the molecular phenotype space, characterized by dissociation constants of RBD to ACE2, LY-CoV016, LY-CoV555, REGN10987, and S309, onto an epistatic fitness landscape. We validate our findings through experimentally measured and machine learning (ML) estimated binding affinities, coupled with infectivity data derived from population-level sequencing. Our analysis reveals that this model effectively predicts the fitness of novel RBD variants and can account for the epistatic interactions among mutations, including explaining the later reversal of Q493R. Our study sheds light on the impact of specific mutations on viral fitness and delivers a tool for predicting the future epidemiological trajectory of previously unseen or emerging low-frequency variants. These insights offer not only greater understanding of viral evolution but also potentially aid in guiding public health decisions in the battle against COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Spindle architecture constrains karyotype in budding yeast

The eukaryotic cell division machinery must rapidly and reproducibly duplicate and partition the cell's chromosomes in a carefully coordinated process. However, chromosome number varies dramatically between genomes, even on short evolutionary timescales. We sought to understand how the mitotic machinery senses and responds to karyotypic changes by using a series of budding yeast strains in which the native chromosomes have been successively fused. Using a combination of cell biological profiling, genetic engineering, and experimental evolution, we show that chromosome fusions are well tolerated up until a critical point. Cells with fewer than five centromeres lack the necessary number of kinetochore-microtubule attachments needed to counter outward forces in the metaphase spindle, triggering the spindle assembly checkpoint and prolonging metaphase. Our findings demonstrate that spindle architecture is a constraining factor for karyotype evolution.

Evolution repeats itself in replicate long-term studies in the wild

The extent to which evolution is repeatable remains debated. Here, we study changes over time in the frequency of cryptic color-pattern morphs in 10 replicate long-term field studies of a stick insect, each spanning at least a decade (across 30 years of total data). We find predictable "up-and-down" fluctuations in stripe frequency in all populations, representing repeatable evolutionary dynamics based on standing genetic variation. A field experiment demonstrates that these fluctuations involve negative frequency-dependent natural selection (NFDS). These fluctuations rely on demographic and selective variability that pushes populations away from equilibrium, such that they can reliably move back toward it via NFDS. Last, we show that the origin of new cryptic forms is associated with multiple structural genomic variants such that which mutations arise affects evolution at larger temporal scales. Thus, evolution from existing variation is predictable and repeatable, but mutation adds complexity even for traits evolving deterministically under natural selection.

WGCCRR: a web-based tool for genome-wide screening of convergent indels and substitutions of amino acids

Summary

Genome-wide analyses of proteincoding gene sequences are being employed to examine the genetic basis of adaptive evolution in many organismal groups. Previous studies have revealed that convergent/parallel adaptive evolution may be caused by convergent/parallel amino acid changes. Similarly, detailed analysis of lineage-specific amino acid changes has shown correlations with certain lineage-specific traits. However, experimental validation remains the ultimate measure of causality. With the increasing availability of genomic data, a streamlined tool for such analyses would facilitate and expedite the screening of genetic loci that hold potential for adaptive evolution, while alleviating the bioinformatic burden for experimental biologists. In this study, we present a user-friendly web-based tool called WGCCRR (Whole Genome Comparative Coding Region Read) designed to screen both convergent/parallel and lineage-specific amino acid changes on a genome-wide scale. Our tool allows users to replicate previous analyses with just a few clicks, and the exported results are straightforward to interpret. In addition, we have also included amino acid indels that are usually neglected in previous work. Our website provides an efficient platform for screening candidate loci for downstream experimental tests.

Availability and Implementation

The tool is available at: https://fishevo.xmu.edu.cn/.

Epistasis facilitates functional evolution in an ancient transcription factor

A protein's genetic architecture - the set of causal rules by which its sequence produces its functions - also determines its possible evolutionary trajectories. Prior research has proposed that the genetic architecture of proteins is very complex, with pervasive epistatic interactions that constrain evolution and make function difficult to predict from sequence. Most of this work has analyzed only the direct paths between two proteins of interest - excluding the vast majority of possible genotypes and evolutionary trajectories - and has considered only a single protein function, leaving unaddressed the genetic architecture of functional specificity and its impact on the evolution of new functions. Here, we develop a new method based on ordinal logistic regression to directly characterize the global genetic determinants of multiple protein functions from 20-state combinatorial deep mutational scanning (DMS) experiments. We use it to dissect the genetic architecture and evolution of a transcription factor's specificity for DNA, using data from a combinatorial DMS of an ancient steroid hormone receptor's capacity to activate transcription from two biologically relevant DNA elements. We show that the genetic architecture of DNA recognition consists of a dense set of main and pairwise effects that involve virtually every possible amino acid state in the protein-DNA interface, but higher-order epistasis plays only a tiny role. Pairwise interactions enlarge the set of functional sequences and are the primary determinants of specificity for different DNA elements. They also massively expand the number of opportunities for single-residue mutations to switch specificity from one DNA target to another. By bringing variants with different functions close together in sequence space, pairwise epistasis therefore facilitates rather than constrains the evolution of new functions.

Genome-scale analysis of interactions between genetic perturbations and natural variation

Interactions between genetic perturbations and segregating loci can cause perturbations to show different phenotypic effects across genetically distinct individuals. To study these interactions on a genome scale in many individuals, we used combinatorial DNA barcode sequencing to measure the fitness effects of 8046 CRISPRi perturbations targeting 1721 distinct genes in 169 yeast cross progeny (or segregants). We identified 460 genes whose perturbation has different effects across segregants. Several factors caused perturbations to show variable effects, including baseline segregant fitness, the mean effect of a perturbation across segregants, and interacting loci. We mapped 234 interacting loci and found four hub loci that interact with many different perturbations. Perturbations that interact with a given hub exhibit similar epistatic relationships with the hub and show enrichment for cellular processes that may mediate these interactions. These results suggest that an individual's response to perturbations is shaped by a network of perturbation-locus interactions that cannot be measured by approaches that examine perturbations or natural variation alone.

Unpredictability of the Fitness Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance Mutations Across Environments in Escherichia coli

The evolution of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria is a major public health concern, and antibiotic restriction is often implemented to reduce the spread of resistance. These measures rely on the existence of deleterious fitness effects (i.e. costs) imposed by AMR mutations during growth in the absence of antibiotics. According to this assumption, resistant strains will be outcompeted by susceptible strains that do not pay the cost during the period of restriction. The fitness effects of AMR mutations are generally studied in laboratory reference strains grown in standard growth environments; however, the genetic and environmental context can influence the magnitude and direction of a mutation's fitness effects. In this study, we measure how three sources of variation impact the fitness effects of Escherichia coli AMR mutations: the type of resistance mutation, the genetic background of the host, and the growth environment. We demonstrate that while AMR mutations are generally costly in antibiotic-free environments, their fitness effects vary widely and depend on complex interactions between the mutation, genetic background, and environment. We test the ability of the Rough Mount Fuji fitness landscape model to reproduce the empirical data in simulation. We identify model parameters that reasonably capture the variation in fitness effects due to genetic variation. However, the model fails to accommodate the observed variation when considering multiple growth environments. Overall, this study reveals a wealth of variation in the fitness effects of resistance mutations owing to genetic background and environmental conditions, which will ultimately impact their persistence in natural populations.

Convergent genetic adaptation of Escherichia coli in minimal media leads to pleiotropic divergence

Adaptation in an environment can either be beneficial, neutral or disadvantageous in another. To test the genetic basis of pleiotropic behaviour, we evolved six lines of E. coli independently in environments where glucose and galactose were the sole carbon sources, for 300 generations. All six lines in each environment exhibit convergent adaptation in the environment in which they were evolved. However, pleiotropic behaviour was observed in several environmental contexts, including other carbon environments. Genome sequencing reveals that mutations in global regulators rpoB and rpoC cause this pleiotropy. We report three new alleles of the rpoB gene, and one new allele of the rpoC gene. The novel rpoB alleles confer resistance to Rifampicin, and alter motility. Our results show how single nucleotide changes in the process of adaptation in minimal media can lead to wide-scale pleiotropy, resulting in changes in traits that are not under direct selection.

Correlated Allele Frequency Changes Reveal Clonal Structure and Selection in Temporal Genetic Data

In evolving populations where the rate of beneficial mutations is large, subpopulations of individuals with competing beneficial mutations can be maintained over long times. Evolution with this kind of clonal structure is commonly observed in a wide range of microbial and viral populations. However, it can be difficult to completely resolve clonal dynamics in data. This is due to limited read lengths in high-throughput sequencing methods, which are often insufficient to directly measure linkage disequilibrium or determine clonal structure. Here, we develop a method to infer clonal structure using correlated allele frequency changes in time-series sequence data. Simulations show that our method recovers true, underlying clonal structures when they are known and accurately estimate linkage disequilibrium. This information can then be combined with other inference methods to improve estimates of the fitness effects of individual mutations. Applications to data suggest novel clonal structures in an E. coli long-term evolution experiment, and yield improved predictions of the effects of mutations on bacterial fitness and antibiotic resistance. Moreover, our method is computationally efficient, requiring orders of magnitude less run time for large data sets than existing methods. Overall, our method provides a powerful tool to infer clonal structures from data sets where only allele frequencies are available, which can also improve downstream analyses.

Pathway Evolution Through a Bottlenecking-Debottlenecking Strategy and Machine Learning-Aided Flux Balancing

The evolution of pathway enzymes enhances the biosynthesis of high-value chemicals, crucial for pharmaceutical, and agrochemical applications. However, unpredictable evolutionary landscapes of pathway genes often hinder successful evolution. Here, the presence of complex epistasis is identifued within the representative naringenin biosynthetic pathway enzymes, hampering straightforward directed evolution. Subsequently, a biofoundry-assisted strategy is developed for pathway bottlenecking and debottlenecking, enabling the parallel evolution of all pathway enzymes along a predictable evolutionary trajectory in six weeks. This study then utilizes a machine learning model, ProEnsemble, to further balance the pathway by optimizing the transcription of individual genes. The broad applicability of this strategy is demonstrated by constructing an Escherichia coli chassis with evolved and balanced pathway genes, resulting in 3.65 g L-1 naringenin. The optimized naringenin chassis also demonstrates enhanced production of other flavonoids. This approach can be readily adapted for any given number of enzymes in the specific metabolic pathway, paving the way for automated chassis construction in contemporary biofoundries.

How microscopic epistasis and clonal interference shape the fitness trajectory in a spin glass model of microbial long-term evolution

The adaptive dynamics of evolving microbial populations takes place on a complex fitness landscape generated by epistatic interactions. The population generically consists of multiple competing strains, a phenomenon known as clonal interference. Microscopic epistasis and clonal interference are central aspects of evolution in microbes, but their combined effects on the functional form of the population's mean fitness are poorly understood. Here, we develop a computational method that resolves the full microscopic complexity of a simulated evolving population subject to a standard serial dilution protocol. Through extensive numerical experimentation, we find that stronger microscopic epistasis gives rise to fitness trajectories with slower growth independent of the number of competing strains, which we quantify with power-law fits and understand mechanistically via a random walk model that neglects dynamical correlations between genes. We show that increasing the level of clonal interference leads to fitness trajectories with faster growth (in functional form) without microscopic epistasis, but leaves the rate of growth invariant when epistasis is sufficiently strong, indicating that the role of clonal interference depends intimately on the underlying fitness landscape. The simulation package for this work may be found at https://github.com/nmboffi/spin_glass_evodyn.

The simplicity of protein sequence-function relationships

How complicated is the genetic architecture of proteins - the set of causal effects by which sequence determines function? High-order epistatic interactions among residues are thought to be pervasive, making a protein's function difficult to predict or understand from its sequence. Most studies, however, used methods that overestimate epistasis, because they analyze genetic architecture relative to a designated reference sequence - causing measurement noise and small local idiosyncrasies to propagate into pervasive high-order interactions - or have not effectively accounted for global nonlinearity in the sequence-function relationship. Here we present a new reference-free method that jointly estimates global nonlinearity and specific epistatic interactions across a protein's entire genotype-phenotype map. This method yields a maximally efficient explanation of a protein's genetic architecture and is more robust than existing methods to measurement noise, partial sampling, and model misspecification. We reanalyze 20 combinatorial mutagenesis experiments from a diverse set of proteins and find that additive and pairwise effects, along with a simple nonlinearity to account for limited dynamic range, explain a median of 96% of total variance in measured phenotypes (and >92% in every case). Only a tiny fraction of genotypes are strongly affected by third- or higher-order epistasis. Genetic architecture is also sparse: the number of terms required to explain the vast majority of variance is smaller than the number of genotypes by many orders of magnitude. The sequence-function relationship in most proteins is therefore far simpler than previously thought, opening the way for new and tractable approaches to characterize it.

Candida albicans' inorganic phosphate transport and evolutionary adaptation to phosphate scarcity

Phosphorus is essential in all cells' structural, metabolic and regulatory functions. For fungal cells that import inorganic phosphate (Pi) up a steep concentration gradient, surface Pi transporters are critical capacitators of growth. Fungi must deploy Pi transporters that enable optimal Pi uptake in pH and Pi concentration ranges prevalent in their environments. Single, triple and quadruple mutants were used to characterize the four Pi transporters we identified for the human fungal pathogen Candida albicans, which must adapt to alkaline conditions during invasion of the host bloodstream and deep organs. A high-affinity Pi transporter, Pho84, was most efficient across the widest pH range while another, Pho89, showed high-affinity characteristics only within one pH unit of neutral. Two low-affinity Pi transporters, Pho87 and Fgr2, were active only in acidic conditions. Only Pho84 among the Pi transporters was clearly required in previously identified Pi-related functions including Target of Rapamycin Complex 1 signaling and hyphal growth. We used in vitro evolution and whole genome sequencing as an unbiased forward genetic approach to probe adaptation to prolonged Pi scarcity of two quadruple mutant lineages lacking all 4 Pi transporters. Lineage-specific genomic changes corresponded to divergent success of the two lineages in fitness recovery during Pi limitation. In this process, initial, large-scale genomic alterations like aneuploidies and loss of heterozygosity were eventually lost as populations presumably gained small-scale mutations. Severity of some phenotypes linked to Pi starvation, like cell wall stress hypersensitivity, decreased in parallel to evolving populations' fitness recovery in Pi scarcity, while that of others like membrane stress responses diverged from these fitness phenotypes. C. albicans therefore has diverse options to reconfigure Pi management during prolonged scarcity. Since Pi homeostasis differs substantially between fungi and humans, adaptive processes to Pi deprivation may harbor small-molecule targets that impact fungal growth and virulence.

A dynamical limit to evolutionary adaptation

Natural selection makes evolutionary adaptation possible even if the overwhelming majority of new mutations are deleterious. However, in rapidly evolving populations where numerous linked mutations occur and segregate simultaneously, clonal interference and genetic hitchhiking can limit the efficiency of selection, allowing deleterious mutations to accumulate over time. This can in principle overwhelm the fitness increases provided by beneficial mutations, leading to an overall fitness decline. Here, we analyze the conditions under which evolution will tend to drive populations to higher versus lower fitness. Our analysis focuses on quantifying the boundary between these two regimes, as a function of parameters such as population size, mutation rates, and selection pressures. This boundary represents a state in which adaptation is precisely balanced by Muller's ratchet, and we show that it can be characterized by rapid molecular evolution without any net fitness change. Finally, we consider the implications of global fitness-mediated epistasis and find that under some circumstances, this can drive populations toward the boundary state, which can thus represent a long-term evolutionary attractor.

Biophysical principles predict fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants

SARS-CoV-2 employs its spike protein's receptor binding domain (RBD) to enter host cells. The RBD is constantly subjected to immune responses, while requiring efficient binding to host cell receptors for successful infection. However, our understanding of how RBD's biophysical properties contribute to SARS-CoV-2's epidemiological fitness remains largely incomplete. Through a comprehensive approach, comprising large-scale sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the discovery of a fitness function based on binding thermodynamics, we unravel the relationship between the biophysical properties of RBD variants and their contribution to viral fitness. We developed a biophysical model that uses statistical mechanics to map the molecular phenotype space, characterized by binding constants of RBD to ACE2, LY-CoV016, LY-CoV555, REGN10987, and S309, onto a epistatic fitness landscape. We validate our findings through experimentally measured and machine learning (ML) estimated binding affinities, coupled with infectivity data derived from population-level sequencing. Our analysis reveals that this model effectively predicts the fitness of novel RBD variants and can account for the epistatic interactions among mutations, including explaining the later reversal of Q493R. Our study sheds light on the impact of specific mutations on viral fitness and delivers a tool for predicting the future epidemiological trajectory of previously unseen or emerging low frequency variants. These insights offer not only greater understanding of viral evolution but also potentially aid in guiding public health decisions in the battle against COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Genome-scale analysis of interactions between genetic perturbations and natural variation

Interactions between genetic perturbations and segregating loci can cause perturbations to show different phenotypic effects across genetically distinct individuals. To study these interactions on a genome scale in many individuals, we used combinatorial DNA barcode sequencing to measure the fitness effects of 7,700 CRISPRi perturbations targeting 1,712 distinct genes in 169 yeast cross progeny (or segregants). We identified 460 genes whose perturbation has different effects across segregants. Several factors caused perturbations to show variable effects, including baseline segregant fitness, the mean effect of a perturbation across segregants, and interacting loci. We mapped 234 interacting loci and found four hub loci that interact with many different perturbations. Perturbations that interact with a given hub exhibit similar epistatic relationships with the hub and show enrichment for cellular processes that may mediate these interactions. These results suggest that an individual's response to perturbations is shaped by a network of perturbation-locus interactions that cannot be measured by approaches that examine perturbations or natural variation alone.

The Pseudomonas aeruginosa Resistome: Permanent and Transient Antibiotic Resistance, an Overview

One of the most concerning characteristics of Pseudomonas aeruginosa is its low susceptibility to several antibiotics of common use in clinics, as well as its facility to acquire increased resistance levels. Consequently, the study of the antibiotic resistance mechanisms of this bacterium is of relevance for human health. For such a study, different types of resistance should be distinguished. The intrinsic resistome is composed of a set of genes, present in the core genome of P. aeruginosa, which contributes to its characteristic, species-specific, phenotype of susceptibility to antibiotics. Acquired resistance refers to those genetic events, such as the acquisition of mutations or antibiotic resistance genes that reduce antibiotic susceptibility. Finally, antibiotic resistance can be transiently acquired in the presence of specific compounds or under some growing conditions. The current article provides information on methods currently used to analyze intrinsic, mutation-driven, and transient antibiotic resistance in P. aeruginosa.

Environmental modulation of global epistasis in a drug resistance fitness landscape

Interactions between mutations (epistasis) can add substantial complexity to genotype-phenotype maps, hampering our ability to predict evolution. Yet, recent studies have shown that the fitness effect of a mutation can often be predicted from the fitness of its genetic background using simple, linear relationships. This phenomenon, termed global epistasis, has been leveraged to reconstruct fitness landscapes and infer adaptive trajectories in a wide variety of contexts. However, little attention has been paid to how patterns of global epistasis may be affected by environmental variation, despite this variation frequently being a major driver of evolution. This is particularly relevant for the evolution of drug resistance, where antimicrobial drugs may change the environment faced by pathogens and shape their adaptive trajectories in ways that can be difficult to predict. By analyzing a fitness landscape of four mutations in a gene encoding an essential enzyme of P. falciparum (a parasite cause of malaria), here we show that patterns of global epistasis can be strongly modulated by the concentration of a drug in the environment. Expanding on previous theoretical results, we demonstrate that this modulation can be quantitatively explained by how specific gene-by-gene interactions are modified by drug dose. Importantly, our results highlight the need to incorporate potential environmental variation into the global epistasis framework in order to predict adaptation in dynamic environments.

A rugged yet easily navigable fitness landscape

Fitness landscape theory predicts that rugged landscapes with multiple peaks impair Darwinian evolution, but experimental evidence is limited. In this study, we used genome editing to map the fitness of >260,000 genotypes of the key metabolic enzyme dihydrofolate reductase in the presence of the antibiotic trimethoprim, which targets this enzyme. The resulting landscape is highly rugged and harbors 514 fitness peaks. However, its highest peaks are accessible to evolving populations via abundant fitness-increasing paths. Different peaks share large basins of attraction that render the outcome of adaptive evolution highly contingent on chance events. Our work shows that ruggedness need not be an obstacle to Darwinian evolution but can reduce its predictability. If true in general, the complexity of optimization problems on realistic landscapes may require reappraisal.

Epistasis and pleiotropy shape biophysical protein subspaces associated with drug resistance

Protein space is a rich analogy for genotype-phenotype maps, where amino acid sequence is organized into a high-dimensional space that highlights the connectivity between protein variants. It is a useful abstraction for understanding the process of evolution, and for efforts to engineer proteins towards desirable phenotypes. Few mentions of protein space consider how protein phenotypes can be described in terms of their biophysical components, nor do they rigorously interrogate how forces like epistasis-describing the nonlinear interaction between mutations and their phenotypic consequences-manifest across these components. In this study, we deconstruct a low-dimensional protein space of a bacterial enzyme (dihydrofolate reductase; DHFR) into "subspaces" corresponding to a set of kinetic and thermodynamic traits [k_{cat}, K_{M}, K_{i}, and T_{m} (melting temperature)]. We then examine how combinations of three mutations (eight alleles in total) display pleiotropy, or unique effects on individual subspace traits. We examine protein spaces across three orthologous DHFR enzymes (Escherichia coli, Listeria grayi, and Chlamydia muridarum), adding a genotypic context dimension through which epistasis occurs across subspaces. In doing so, we reveal that protein space is a deceptively complex notion, and that future applications to bioengineering should consider how interactions between amino acid substitutions manifest across different phenotypic subspaces.

Patterns and evolutionary consequences of pleiotropy

Pleiotropy refers to the phenomenon of one gene or one mutation affecting multiple phenotypic traits. While the concept of pleiotropy is as old as Mendelian genetics, functional genomics has finally allowed the first glimpses of the extent of pleiotropy for a large fraction of genes in a genome. After describing conceptual and operational difficulties in quantifying pleiotropy and the pros and cons of various methods for measuring pleiotropy, I review empirical data on pleiotropy, which generally show an L-shaped distribution of the degree of pleiotropy (i.e., the number of traits affected) with most genes having low pleiotropy. I then review the current understanding of the molecular basis of pleiotropy. The rest of the review discusses evolutionary consequences of pleiotropy, focusing on advances in topics including the cost of complexity, regulatory vs. coding evolution, environmental pleiotropy and adaptation, evolution of ageing and other seemingly harmful traits, and evolutionary resolution of pleiotropy.

Deconstructing taxa x taxa xenvironment interactions in the microbiota: A theoretical examination

A major objective of microbial ecology is to identify how the composition of microbial taxa shapes host phenotypes. However, most studies focus on pairwise interactions and ignore the potentially significant effects of higher-order microbial interactions.Here, we quantify the effects of higher-order interactions among taxa on host infection risk. We apply our approach to an in silico dataset that is built to resemble a population of insect hosts with gut-associated microbial communities at risk of infection from an intestinal parasite across a breadth of nutrient environmental contexts.We find that the effect of higher-order interactions is considerable and can change appreciably across environmental contexts. Furthermore, we show that higher-order interactions can stabilize community structure thereby reducing host susceptibility to parasite invasion.Our approach illustrates how incorporating the effects of higher-order interactions among gut microbiota across environments can be essential for understanding their effects on host phenotypes.

Evolution of haploid and diploid populations reveals common, strong, and variable pleiotropic effects in non-home environments

Adaptation is driven by the selection for beneficial mutations that provide a fitness advantage in the specific environment in which a population is evolving. However, environments are rarely constant or predictable. When an organism well adapted to one environment finds itself in another, pleiotropic effects of mutations that made it well adapted to its former environment will affect its success. To better understand such pleiotropic effects, we evolved both haploid and diploid barcoded budding yeast populations in multiple environments, isolated adaptive clones, and then determined the fitness effects of adaptive mutations in 'non-home' environments in which they were not selected. We find that pleiotropy is common, with most adaptive evolved lineages showing fitness effects in non-home environments. Consistent with other studies, we find that these pleiotropic effects are unpredictable: they are beneficial in some environments and deleterious in others. However, we do find that lineages with adaptive mutations in the same genes tend to show similar pleiotropic effects. We also find that ploidy influences the observed adaptive mutational spectra in a condition-specific fashion. In some conditions, haploids and diploids are selected with adaptive mutations in identical genes, while in others they accumulate mutations in almost completely disjoint sets of genes.

Oncogenic context shapes the fitness landscape of tumor suppression

Tumors acquire alterations in oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes in an adaptive walk through the fitness landscape of tumorigenesis. However, the interactions between oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes that shape this landscape remain poorly resolved and cannot be revealed by human cancer genomics alone. Here, we use a multiplexed, autochthonous mouse platform to model and quantify the initiation and growth of more than one hundred genotypes of lung tumors across four oncogenic contexts: KRAS G12D, KRAS G12C, BRAF V600E, and EGFR L858R. We show that the fitness landscape is rugged-the effect of tumor suppressor inactivation often switches between beneficial and deleterious depending on the oncogenic context-and shows no evidence of diminishing-returns epistasis within variants of the same oncogene. These findings argue against a simple linear signaling relationship amongst these three oncogenes and imply a critical role for off-axis signaling in determining the fitness effects of inactivating tumor suppressors.

Mutational hotspots lead to robust but suboptimal adaptive outcomes in certain environments

The observed mutational spectrum of adaptive outcomes can be constrained by many factors. For example, mutational biases can narrow the observed spectrum by increasing the rate of mutation at isolated sites in the genome. In contrast, complex environments can shift the observed spectrum by defining fitness consequences of mutational routes. We investigate the impact of different nutrient environments on the evolution of motility in Pseudomonas fluorescens Pf0-2x (an engineered non-motile derivative of Pf0-1) in the presence and absence of a strong mutational hotspot. Previous work has shown that this mutational hotspot can be built and broken via six silent mutations, which provide rapid access to a mutation that rescues swimming motility and confers the strongest swimming phenotype in specific environments. Here, we evolved a hotspot and non-hotspot variant strain of Pf0-2x for motility under nutrient-rich (LB) and nutrient-limiting (M9) environmental conditions. We observed the hotspot strain consistently evolved faster across all environmental conditions and its mutational spectrum was robust to environmental differences. However, the non-hotspot strain had a distinct mutational spectrum that changed depending on the nutrient environment. Interestingly, while alternative adaptive mutations in nutrient-rich environments were equal to, or less effective than, the hotspot mutation, the majority of these mutations in nutrient-limited conditions produced superior swimmers. Our competition experiments mirrored these findings, underscoring the role of environment in defining both the mutational spectrum and the associated phenotype strength. This indicates that while mutational hotspots working in concert with natural selection can speed up access to robust adaptive mutations (which can provide a competitive advantage in evolving populations), they can limit exploration of the mutational landscape, restricting access to potentially stronger phenotypes in specific environments.

Conditionally unutilized proteins and their profound effects on growth and adaptation across microbial species

Protein synthesis is an important determinant of microbial growth and response that demands a high amount of metabolic and biosynthetic resources. Despite these costs, microbial species from different taxa and habitats massively synthesize proteins that are not utilized in the conditions they currently experience. Based on resource allocation models, recent studies have begun to reconcile the costs and benefits of these conditionally unutilized proteins (CUPs) in the context of varying environmental conditions. Such massive synthesis of CUPs is crucial to consider in different areas of modern microbiology, from the systematic investigation of cell physiology, via the prediction of evolution in laboratory and natural environments, to the rational design of strains in biotechnology applications.

Strong environmental memory revealed by experimental evolution in static and fluctuating environments

Evolution in a static environment, such as a laboratory setting with constant and uniform conditions, often proceeds via large-effect beneficial mutations that may become maladaptive in other environments. Conversely, natural settings require populations to endure environmental fluctuations. A sensible assumption is that the fitness of a lineage in a fluctuating environment is the time-average of its fitness over the sequence of static conditions it encounters. However, transitions between conditions may pose entirely new challenges, which could cause deviations from this time-average. To test this, we tracked hundreds of thousands of barcoded yeast lineages evolving in static and fluctuating conditions and subsequently isolated 900 mutants for pooled fitness assays in 15 environments. We find that fitness in fluctuating environments indeed often deviates from the expectation based on static components, leading to fitness non-additivity. Moreover, closer examination reveals that fitness in one component of a fluctuating environment is often strongly influenced by the previous component. We show that this environmental memory is especially common for mutants with high variance in fitness across tested environments, even if the components of the focal fluctuating environment are excluded from this variance. We employ a simple mathematical model and whole-genome sequencing to propose mechanisms underlying this effect, including lag time evolution and sensing mutations. Our results demonstrate that environmental fluctuations have large impacts on fitness and suggest that variance in static environments can explain these impacts.

Cooperative assembly confers regulatory specificity and long-term genetic circuit stability

A ubiquitous feature of eukaryotic transcriptional regulation is cooperative self-assembly between transcription factors (TFs) and DNA cis-regulatory motifs. It is thought that this strategy enables specific regulatory connections to be formed in gene networks between otherwise weakly interacting, low-specificity molecular components. Here, using synthetic gene circuits constructed in yeast, we find that high regulatory specificity can emerge from cooperative, multivalent interactions among artificial zinc-finger-based TFs. We show that circuits "wired" using the strategy of cooperative TF assembly are effectively insulated from aberrant misregulation of the host cell genome. As we demonstrate in experiments and mathematical models, this mechanism is sufficient to rescue circuit-driven fitness defects, resulting in genetic and functional stability of circuits in long-term continuous culture. Our naturally inspired approach offers a simple, generalizable means for building high-fidelity, evolutionarily robust gene circuits that can be scaled to a wide range of host organisms and applications.

A dynamical limit to evolutionary adaptation

Natural selection makes evolutionary adaptation possible even if the overwhelming majority of new mutations are deleterious. However, in rapidly evolving populations where numerous linked mutations occur and segregate simultaneously, clonal interference and genetic hitchhiking can limit the efficiency of selection, allowing deleterious mutations to accumulate over time. This can in principle overwhelm the fitness increases provided by beneficial mutations, leading to an overall fitness decline. Here, we analyze the conditions under which evolution will tend to drive populations to higher versus lower fitness. Our analysis focuses on quantifying the boundary between these two regimes, as a function of parameters such as population size, mutation rates, and selection pressures. This boundary represents a state in which adaptation is precisely balanced by Muller's ratchet, and we show that it can be characterized by rapid molecular evolution without any net fitness change. Finally, we consider the implications of global fitness-mediated epistasis, and find that under some circumstances this can drive populations towards the boundary state, which can thus represent a long-term evolutionary attractor.

Long-range linkage effects in adapting sexual populations

In sexual populations, closely-situated genes have linked evolutionary fates, while genes spaced far in genome are commonly thought to evolve independently due to recombination. In the case where evolution depends essentially on supply of new mutations, this assumption has been confirmed by mathematical modeling. Here I examine it in the case of pre-existing genetic variation, where mutation is not important. A haploid population with [Formula: see text] genomes, [Formula: see text] loci, a fixed selection coefficient, and a small initial frequency of beneficial alleles [Formula: see text] is simulated by a Monte-Carlo algorithm. When the number of loci, L, is larger than a critical value of [Formula: see text] simulation demonstrates a host of linkage effects that decrease neither with the distance between loci nor the number of recombination crossovers. Due to clonal interference, the beneficial alleles become extinct at a fraction of loci [Formula: see text]. Due to a genetic background effect, the substitution rate varies broadly between loci, with the fastest value exceeding the one-locus limit by the factor of [Formula: see text] Thus, the far-situated parts of a long genome in a sexual population do not evolve as independent blocks. A potential link between these findings and the emergence of new Variants of Concern of SARS-CoV-2 is discussed.

Long-term evolution of proliferating cells using the eVOLVER platform

Experimental evolution using fast-growing unicellular organisms is a unique strategy for deciphering the principles and mechanisms underlying evolutionary processes as well as the architecture and wiring of basic biological functions. Over the past decade, this approach has benefited from the development of powerful systems for the continuous control of the growth of independently evolving cultures. While the first devices compatible with multiplexed experimental evolution remained challenging to implement and required constant user intervention, the recently developed eVOLVER framework represents a fully automated closed-loop system for laboratory evolution assays. However, it remained difficult to maintain and compare parallel evolving cultures in tightly controlled environments over long periods of time using eVOLVER. Furthermore, a number of tools were lacking to cope with the various issues that inevitably occur when conducting such long-term assays. Here we present a significant upgrade of the eVOLVER framework, providing major modifications of the experimental methodology, hardware and software as well as a new stand-alone protocol. Altogether, these adaptations and improvements make the eVOLVER a versatile and unparalleled set-up for long-term experimental evolution.

Evolvability-enhancing mutations in the fitness landscapes of an RNA and a protein

Can evolvability-the ability to produce adaptive heritable variation-itself evolve through adaptive Darwinian evolution? If so, then Darwinian evolution may help create the conditions that enable Darwinian evolution. Here I propose a framework that is suitable to address this question with available experimental data on adaptive landscapes. I introduce the notion of an evolvability-enhancing mutation, which increases the likelihood that subsequent mutations in an evolving organism, protein, or RNA molecule are adaptive. I search for such mutations in the experimentally characterized and combinatorially complete fitness landscapes of a protein and an RNA molecule. I find that such evolvability-enhancing mutations indeed exist. They constitute a small fraction of all mutations, which shift the distribution of fitness effects of subsequent mutations towards less deleterious mutations, and increase the incidence of beneficial mutations. Evolving populations which experience such mutations can evolve significantly higher fitness. The study of evolvability-enhancing mutations opens many avenues of investigation into the evolution of evolvability.

Analysis of Genome-Wide Mutational Dependence in Naturally Evolving Mycobacterium tuberculosis Populations

Pathogenic microorganisms are in a perpetual struggle for survival in changing host environments, where host pressures necessitate changes in pathogen virulence, antibiotic resistance, or transmissibility. The genetic basis of phenotypic adaptation by pathogens is difficult to study in vivo. In this work, we develop a phylogenetic method to detect genetic dependencies that promote pathogen adaptation using 31,428 in vivo sampled Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomes, a globally prevalent bacterial pathogen with increasing levels of antibiotic resistance. We find that dependencies between mutations are enriched in antigenic and antibiotic resistance functions and discover 23 mutations that potentiate the development of antibiotic resistance. Between 11% and 92% of resistant strains harbor a dependent mutation acquired after a resistance-conferring variant. We demonstrate the pervasiveness of genetic dependency in adaptation of naturally evolving populations and the utility of the proposed computational approach.

Identifying Targets of Selection in Laboratory Evolution Experiments

Adaptive evolution navigates a balance between chance and determinism. The stochastic processes of mutation and drift generate phenotypic variation; however, once mutations reach an appreciable frequency in the population, their fate is governed by the deterministic action of selection, enriching for favorable genotypes and purging the less-favorable ones. The net result is that replicate populations will traverse similar-but not identical-pathways to higher fitness. This parallelism in evolutionary outcomes can be leveraged to identify the genes and pathways under selection. However, distinguishing between beneficial and neutral mutations is challenging because many beneficial mutations will be lost due to drift and clonal interference, and many neutral (and even deleterious) mutations will fix by hitchhiking. Here, we review the best practices that our laboratory uses to identify genetic targets of selection from next-generation sequencing data of evolved yeast populations. The general principles for identifying the mutations driving adaptation will apply more broadly.

Epistasis and evolution: recent advances and an outlook for prediction

As organisms evolve, the effects of mutations change as a result of epistatic interactions with other mutations accumulated along the line of descent. This can lead to shifts in adaptability or robustness that ultimately shape subsequent evolution. Here, we review recent advances in measuring, modeling, and predicting epistasis along evolutionary trajectories, both in microbial cells and single proteins. We focus on simple patterns of global epistasis that emerge in this data, in which the effects of mutations can be predicted by a small number of variables. The emergence of these patterns offers promise for efforts to model epistasis and predict evolution.

Transient mutation bias increases the predictability of evolution on an empirical genotype-phenotype landscape

Predicting how a population will likely navigate a genotype-phenotype landscape requires consideration of selection in combination with mutation bias, which can skew the likelihood of following a particular trajectory. Strong and persistent directional selection can drive populations to ascend toward a peak. However, with a greater number of peaks and more routes to reach them, adaptation inevitably becomes less predictable. Transient mutation bias, which operates only on one mutational step, can influence landscape navigability by biasing the mutational trajectory early in the adaptive walk. This sets an evolving population upon a particular path, constraining the number of accessible routes and making certain peaks and routes more likely to be realized than others. In this work, we employ a model system to investigate whether such transient mutation bias can reliably and predictably place populations on a mutational trajectory to the strongest selective phenotype or usher populations to realize inferior phenotypic outcomes. For this we use motile mutants evolved from ancestrally non-motile variants of the microbe Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25, of which one trajectory exhibits significant mutation bias. Using this system, we elucidate an empirical genotype-phenotype landscape, where the hill-climbing process represents increasing strength of the motility phenotype, to reveal that transient mutation bias can facilitate rapid and predictable ascension to the strongest observed phenotype in place of equivalent and inferior trajectories. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Evolutionary repeatability of emergent properties of ecological communities

Most species belong to ecological communities where their interactions give rise to emergent community-level properties, such as diversity and productivity. Understanding and predicting how these properties change over time has been a major goal in ecology, with important practical implications for sustainability and human health. Less attention has been paid to the fact that community-level properties can also change because member species evolve. Yet, our ability to predict long-term eco-evolutionary dynamics hinges on how repeatably community-level properties change as a result of species evolution. Here, we review studies of evolution of both natural and experimental communities and make the case that community-level properties at least sometimes evolve repeatably. We discuss challenges faced in investigations of evolutionary repeatability. In particular, only a handful of studies enable us to quantify repeatability. We argue that quantifying repeatability at the community level is critical for approaching what we see as three major open questions in the field: (i) Is the observed degree of repeatability surprising? (ii) How is evolutionary repeatability at the community level related to repeatability at the level of traits of member species? (iii) What factors affect repeatability? We outline some theoretical and empirical approaches to addressing these questions. Advances in these directions will not only enrich our basic understanding of evolution and ecology but will also help us predict eco-evolutionary dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Global epistasis on fitness landscapes

Epistatic interactions between mutations add substantial complexity to adaptive landscapes and are often thought of as detrimental to our ability to predict evolution. Yet, patterns of global epistasis, in which the fitness effect of a mutation is well-predicted by the fitness of its genetic background, may actually be of help in our efforts to reconstruct fitness landscapes and infer adaptive trajectories. Microscopic interactions between mutations, or inherent nonlinearities in the fitness landscape, may cause global epistasis patterns to emerge. In this brief review, we provide a succinct overview of recent work about global epistasis, with an emphasis on building intuition about why it is often observed. To this end, we reconcile simple geometric reasoning with recent mathematical analyses, using these to explain why different mutations in an empirical landscape may exhibit different global epistasis patterns-ranging from diminishing to increasing returns. Finally, we highlight open questions and research directions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.