Repopulating the Countryside: A 1980 Census Trend

Analyzing and interpreting spatial and temporal variability of the United States county population distributions using Taylor's law

We study the spatial and temporal variation of the human population in the United States (US) counties from 1790 to 2010, using an ecological scaling pattern called Taylor's law (TL). TL states that the variance of population abundance is a power function of the mean population abundance. Despite extensive studies of TL for non-human populations, testing and interpreting TL using data on human populations are rare. Here we examine three types of TL that quantify the spatial and temporal variation of US county population abundance. Our results show that TL and its quadratic extension describe the mean-variance relationship of county population distribution well. The slope and statistics of TL reveal economic and demographic trends of the county populations. We propose TL as a useful statistical tool for analyzing human population variability. We suggest new ways of using TL to select and make population projections.

Energy and Urban Form

Studies of the relationship between urban form and energy use have used scenarios to examine the relative energy efficiency of three spatial configurations of urban systems: centralization, multinucleation, and sprawl. Their results have been contradictory. This article develops a human ecological critique of these studies by examining the events included in each scenario. The results suggest that these contradictions are more apparent than real: Multinucleation is the most energy-efficient urban form. They also suggest that energy may now be a relatively weak determinant of urban form.

The ascendancy of Amblyomma americanum as a vector of pathogens affecting humans in the United States

Until the 1990s, Amblyomma americanum was regarded primarily as a nuisance species, but a tick of minor importance as a vector of zoonotic pathogens affecting humans. With the recent discoveries of Ehrlichia chaffeensis, Ehrlichia ewingii, and "Borrelia lonestari," the public health relevance of lone star ticks is no longer in question. During the next 25 years, the number of cases of human disease caused by A. americanum-associated pathogens will probably increase. Based on current trajectories and historic precedents, the increase will be primarily driven by biological and environmental factors that alter the geographic distribution and intensity of transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Sociologic and demographic changes that influence the likelihood of highly susceptible humans coming into contact with infected lone star ticks, in addition to advances in diagnostic capabilities and national surveillance efforts, will also contribute to the anticipated increase in the number of recognized cases of disease.

Rural-urban differences in psychiatric status and functioning among clients with severe mental illness

Studies of clients with severe mental illness (SMI) typically focus on individuals in larger urban areas. Less is known about clients in rural and smaller urban areas. Here we compare the psychiatric status, home and community activities of daily living, and social and vocational functioning of 1600 adult clients with SMI from 18 small-city and rural Wisconsin counties. Rural clients are less likely to have a diagnosis of schizophrenia or organic brain syndrome; have higher levels of general pathology, including more belligerent, bizarre, nervous, and depressive behaviors; and engage in fewer vocational activities than urban clients.

"Dying villages", "counterurbanization" and the urban field--a Canadian perspective

"This paper will review major theories on ¿rural-urban-turnaround' and the phenomenon of ¿dying villages'. It will then trace the evolution of one small settlement, Wroxeter, Ontario to describe and explain the factors that transformed it from the ¿most ghosted town in Ontario'...into a community experiencing both population growth and diversification in its economy. The Wroxeter experience will be evaluated against evidence from comparative case studies in the literature. Finally, conclusions from these studies will be weighted against those in contemporary studies of rural population turnaround, counterurbanization, rural renaissance, the urban field, and functional change in settlement systems. Idiographic findings at the local level will be compared with the conclusions of aggregate statistical studies and their nomothetic implications."

Migration and labour supply in New England

The author links changes in regional employment with demographic changes in New England during the relative economic boom that occurred in the region during the 1980s. It is noted that during this period, "New England had a very slow rate of natural population growth. The relatively high rate of growth in jobs coupled with the relatively stable population has produced labour shortages in parts of the region. It is demonstrated that the labour supply has become dependent on migrants from other regions. If the economic expansion continues, the region must significantly increase its net migration gains. If immigration to the region remains sluggish, the revival will be short-lived." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 428).

Monitoring the metropolitanization process

Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950–1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950–1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.

Heterogeneity and the implied dynamics of regional growth rates: Was the nonmetropolitan turnaround an artifact of aggregation?

The spatial units of analysis employed in urban and regional research display considerable internal heterogeneity in terms of the social, demographic, and economic variables used to describe them. One implication of this has been overlooked in the literature, namely, that aggregate rates may have an implicit dynamic of change. Differential internal rates modify the composition of the aggregate, changing the relative importance of subareas in determining the aggregate rate. To demonstrate this, methods for decomposing the change in growth rates due to heterogeneity are developed and applied to nonmetropolitan growth rates between 1950 and 1980. Internal heterogeneity was found to be an important, and sometimes even a dominant, component of change. Furthermore, the analysis sheds considerable light on the reasons for the changes in aggregate rates that marked the nonmetropolitan turnaround.

Unravelling the population turnaround in rural Canada

"This paper attempts to unravel the rural population turnaround in Canada through a disaggregation and analysis of rural growth rates by (1) two decades, 1961-71 and 1971-81, (2) the farm and non-farm components of rural population, (3) provincially based regions, and (4) area types based on proximity to urban centres. Following a discussion of the various definitional and boundary-matching issues arising from the use of the Census of Canada, results are presented in tabular and map form. Although rural growth rates did in all likelihood exceed urban rates in the 1970s, the extent of this turnaround is undoubtedly exaggerated in the census data, primarily because of definitional and reclassification effects. Moreover, setting aside data-related anomalies, there is strong evidence that much of this rural population growth was in fact 'spillover' from urban centres." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams: 1935–1980

Results based on an analysis of migration streams involving the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors and covering a longer time interval than previously possible indicate that efforts to describe changes in the volume of movements connecting these sectors could benefit from greater attention to other related streams as well as existing patterns of population concentration. The metropolitanization process continues but is now being affected substantially by regional redistribution trends. Regional differentials in the size of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams are declining but are still substantial, so an equilibrium balance between the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors will probably not occur in the immediate future.

Recent changes in the pace of population deconcentration in Britain

"This paper uses the official annual population estimates to examine changes in the scale of urban-rural shift in the distribution of the British population since the 1960s. These reveal that the level of population deconcentration at regional and more local scales stood at its highest at the beginning of the 1970s and that since the mid 1970s the rate of population loss experienced by London and several other large cities has diminished markedly. An analysis of the components of population change reveals that trends in net migration have been primarily responsible, though generally reinforced by trends in natural change rates. It is concluded that...most of [the 1970s] featured the downwave of a longer cycle of decentralisation which had its origins at least as early as the first half of the 1960s."

Urban-rural migration in Australia: a process view of the turnaround

"This paper summarizes the evidence for the existence of a trend toward population deconcentration in Australia at the macro and meso (national and state) levels. It seeks to relate processes of population dynamics identified at macro, meso and micro levels to several hypotheses which have been put forward to explain the turnaround. A preliminary explanatory model which links causal mechanisms operating at different levels of the spatial and urban hierarchy is outlined."