Testing for Periodicity of Extinction

Earth's interior dynamics drive marine fossil diversity cycles of tens of millions of years

The fossil record reveals that biotic diversity has fluctuated quasi-cyclically through geological time. However, the causal mechanisms of biotic diversity cycles remain unexplained. Here, we highlight a common, correlatable 36 ± 1 Myr (million years) cycle in the diversity of marine genera as well as in tectonic, sea-level, and macrostratigraphic data over the past 250 Myr of Earth history. The prominence of the 36 ± 1 Myr cycle in tectonic data favors a common-cause mechanism, wherein geological forcing mechanisms drive patterns in both biological diversity and the preserved rock record. In particular, our results suggest that a 36 ± 1 Myr tectono-eustatically driven sea-level cycle may originate from the interaction between the convecting mantle and subducting slabs, thereby pacing mantle-lithospheric deep-water recycling. The 36 ± 1 Myr tectono-eustatic driver of biodiversity is likely related to cyclic continental inundations, with expanding and contracting ecological niches on shelves and in epeiric seas.

Are Impact Craters and Extinction Episodes Periodic? Implications for Planetary Science and Astrobiology

A review of the results of published spectral analyses of the ages of terrestrial impact craters (58 analyses) and biotic extinction events (35 analyses) reveals that about 60% of the crater trials support a statistically significant cycle averaging ∼29.7 million years (My), and about 67% of the trials of extinction episodes found a significant cycle averaging ∼26.5 My. Cross-wavelet transform analysis of the records of craters and extinctions over the past 260 My shows a mutual ∼26 My cycle and a common phase, suggesting a connection. About 50% of the best-dated impact craters seem to occur in approximately nine pairs or clusters in the past 260 My, apparently carrying the signal of an ∼26- to 30-My cycle. It has been suggested that periodic modulation of impacts and extinctions might be related to periodic comet storms that follow the solar system's oscillations in and out of the galactic mid-plane. Problems arise, however, with regard to the compatibility of such periodic pulses of comet flux with the makeup of the steady-state Near Earth Object (NEO) population, the estimated long-term NEO cratering rates on the terrestrial planets, and the predicted small contribution of Oort Cloud-derived comets to the terrestrial cratering record. Asteroid storms may be possible, but at present there are no accepted mechanisms for creating an ∼30-My period in asteroid breakup events and impacts. Astrobiological implications arise if extra-solar habitable planets suffer similar cyclical or episodic catastrophic bombardment episodes affecting long-term biotic evolution on those planets. Other planetary systems might commonly have comet reservoirs, but they are less likely to contain an asteroid belt in the proper orbital position. Further, frequent impacts of ∼1-km diameter comets and asteroids could affect the establishment and longevity of technological civilizations, including our own.

Geologic constraints on the macroevolutionary history of marine animals

The causes of mass extinctions and the nature of taxonomic radiations are central questions in paleobiology. Several episodes of taxonomic turnover in the fossil record, particularly the major mass extinctions, are generally thought to transcend known biases in the geologic record and are widely interpreted as distinct macroevolutionary phenomena that require unique forcing mechanisms. Here, by using a previously undescribed compilation of the durations of sedimentary rock sequences, I compare the rates of expansion and truncation of preserved marine sedimentary basins to rates of origination and extinction among Phanerozoic marine animal genera. Many features of the highly variable record of taxonomic first and last occurrences in the marine animal fossil record, including the major mass extinctions, the frequency distribution of genus longevities, and short- and long-term patterns of genus diversity, can be predicted on the basis of the temporal continuity and quantity of preserved sedimentary rock. Although these results suggest that geologically mediated sampling biases have distorted macroevolutionary patterns in the fossil record, preservation biases alone cannot easily explain the extent to which the sedimentary record duplicates paleobiological patterns. Instead, these results suggest that the processes responsible for producing variability in the sedimentary rock record, such as plate tectonics and sea-level change, may have been dominant and consistent macroevolutionary forces throughout the Phanerozoic.

Identifying Phanerozoic extinction controls: statistical considerations and preliminary results

Two prominent patterns have been recognized in Phanerozoic extinction data: (1) a quasi-periodic distribution of extinction-intensity peaks, and (2) a linear, declining background extinction intensity gradient. Characterization and interpretation of both patterns are necessary to understand Phanerozoic extinction controls. The extinction-intensity peak spectrum has been variously interpreted as a reflection of the time-series of major sea-level regressions, continental flood-basalt province (CFBP) eruptions, and bolide impacts. In order to evaluate the level of association between these time-series and the Phanerozoic marine invertebrate extinction record statistically, a new Monte Carlo simulation strategy is presented. Results of simulation-based tests suggest that the time-series of major, eustatic sea-level regressions and CFBP eruption events have a statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05) association with Tatarian-Pliocene, stage-level, extinction intensity peaks. Associations between this peak series and the time-series of crater-producing bolide impacts do not appear significant at this level. A limited multicausal event scenario was also tested using the Monte Carlo method, and recognized the combination of sea-level regression and CFBP volcanism to be significantly associated with the largest extinction intensity peaks of the last 250 Ma. The background extinction-intensity gradient has been interpreted variously as: (1) an indicator of progressive improvement in extinction resistance through selection; (2) the by-product of an invasion of marginal (extinction-resistant) habitats; and (3) as a taxonomic-stratigraphical artefact. Results of subdivided linear trend analyses suggest that the background extinction-intensity gradient is largely confined to the Late Palaeozoic-Cenozoic interval. No statistically significant gradient is present in the most recent compilation of Early-Middle Palaeozoic data on marine, invertebrate extinctions. The timing of gradient initiation and extinction variance analyses suggest that reorganization of global carbon cycles and oceanographical circulation patterns in the Devonian-Early Carboniferous, and the evolutionary appearance of modern phytoplankton groups in the Late Triassic both had dramatic effects on the character of the extinction-intensity gradient.

J. John Sepkoski Jr. (1948-1999)

With Jack Sepkoski's sudden death from heart failure on May 1, 1999, paleontology lost one of its most important figures. In his 25–year career, Jack published more than 70 research articles, 15 of them in this journal, and an equal number of reviews, commentaries, and abstracts. He co-edited Paleobiology (1983–86), received the Schuchert Award (1983), and served as President of the Paleontological Society (1995–96). In 1997, he was elected to the Polish Academy of Sciences and in the same year received the Medal of the University of Helsinki. Further recognition would surely have followed but for his untimely death.

Molecular transfer of a species-specific behavior from Drosophila simulans to Drosophila melanogaster

Drosophila males modulate the interpulse intervals produced during their courtship songs. These song cycles, which are altered by mutations in the clock gene period, exhibit a species-specific variation that facilitates mating. We have used chimeric period gene constructs from Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila simulans in germline transformation experiments to map the genetic control of their song rhythm difference to a small segment of the amino acid encoding information within this gene.

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.