Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations

Stochastic paleoclimatology: Modeling the EPICA ice core climate records

We analyze and model the stochastic behavior of paleoclimate time series and assess the implications for the coupling of climate variables during the Pleistocene glacial cycles. We examine 800 kiloyears of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and temperature proxy data from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome-C ice core, which are characterized by 100 ky glacial cycles overlain by fluctuations across a wide range of timescales. We quantify this behavior through multifractal time-weighted detrended fluctuation analysis, which distinguishes near-red-noise and white-noise behavior below and above the 100 ky glacial cycle, respectively, in all records. This allows us to model each time series as a one-dimensional periodic nonautonomous stochastic dynamical system, and assess the stability of physical processes and the fidelity of model-simulated time series. We extend this approach to a four-variable model with intervariable coupling terms, which we interpret in terms of possible interrelationships among the four time series. Within the framework of our coupling coefficients, we find that carbon dioxide and temperature act to stabilize each other and methane and nitrous oxide, whereas the latter two destabilize each other and carbon dioxide and temperature. We also compute the response function for each pair of variables to assess the model performance by comparison to the data and confirm the model predictions regarding stability amongst variables. Taken together, our results are consistent with glacial pacing dominated by carbon dioxide and temperature that is modulated by terrestrial biosphere feedbacks associated with methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

Towards High CO2 Conversions Using Cu/Zn Catalysts Supported on Aluminum Fumarate Metal-Organic Framework for Methanol Synthesis

Green methanol is a viable alternative for the storage of hydrogen and may be produced from captured anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide. The latter was hydrogenated over Cu-ZnO catalysts supported on an aluminum fumarate metal-organic framework (AlFum MOF). The catalysts, prepared via slurry phase impregnation, were assessed for thermocatalytic hydrogenation of CO2 to methanol. PXRD, FTIR, and SBET exhibited a decrease in crystallinity of the AlFum MOF support after impregnation with Cu-Zn active sites. SEM, SEM-EDS, and TEM revealed that the morphology of the support is preserved after metal loading, where H2-TPR confirmed the presence of active sites for hydrogen uptake. The catalysts exhibited good activity, with a doubling in Cu and Zn loading over the AlFum MOF, resulting in a 4-fold increase in CO2 conversions from 10.8% to 45.6% and an increase in methanol productivity from 34.4 to 56.5 gMeOH/Kgcat/h. The catalysts exhibited comparatively high CO selectivity and high yields of H2O, thereby favoring the reverse water-gas shift reaction. The selectivity of the catalysts towards methanol was found to be 12.9% and 6.9%. The performance of the catalyst supported on AlFum MOF further highlights the potential use of MOFs as supports in the heterogeneous thermocatalytic conversion of CO2 to value-added products.

Thermocatalytic Hydrogenation of CO2 to Methanol Using Cu-ZnO Bimetallic Catalysts Supported on Metal–Organic Frameworks

The thermocatalytic hydrogenation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to methanol is considered as a potential route for green hydrogen storage as well as a mean for utilizing captured CO2, owing to the many established applications of methanol. Copper–zinc bimetallic catalysts supported on a zirconium-based UiO-66 metal–organic framework (MOF) were prepared via slurry phase impregnation and benchmarked against the promoted, co-precipitated, conventional ternary CuO/ZnO/Al2O3 (CZA) catalyst for the thermocatalytic hydrogenation of CO2 to methanol. A decrease in crystallinity and specific surface area of the UiO-66 support was observed using X-ray diffraction and N2-sorption isotherms, whereas hydrogen-temperature-programmed reduction and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy revealed the presence of copper active sites after impregnation and thermal activation. Other characterisation techniques such as scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and thermogravimetric analysis were employed to assess the physicochemical properties of the resulting catalysts. The UiO-66 (Zr) MOF-supported catalyst exhibited a good CO2 conversion of 27 and 16% selectivity towards methanol, whereas the magnesium-promoted CZA catalyst had a CO2 conversion of 31% and methanol selectivity of 24%. The prepared catalysts performed similarly to a CZA commercial catalyst which exhibited a CO2 conversion and methanol selectivity of 30 and 15%. The study demonstrates the prospective use of Cu-Zn bimetallic catalysts supported on MOFs for direct CO2 hydrogenation to produce green methanol.

Methanol Synthesis from CO2 Hydrogenation

In the future we will be phasing out the use of fossil fuels in favour of more sustainable forms of energy, especially solar derived forms such as hydroelectric, wind and photovoltaic. However, due to the variable nature of the latter sources which depend on time of day, and season of the year, we also need to have a way of storing such energy at peak production times for use in times of low production. One way to do this is to convert such energy into chemical energy, and the principal way considered at present is the production of hydrogen. Although this may be achieved directly in the future via photocatalytic water splitting, at present it is electrolytic production which dominates thinking. In turn, it may well be important to store this hydrogen in an energy dense liquid form such as methanol or ammonia. In this brief review it is emphasised that CO2 is the microscopic carbon source for current industrial methanol synthesis, operating through the surface formate intermediate, although when using CO in the feed, it is CO which is hydrogenated at the global scale. However, methanol can be produced from pure CO2 and hydrogen using conventional and novel types of catalysts. Examples of such processes, and of a demonstrator plant in construction, are given, which utilize CO2 (which would otherwise enter the atmosphere directly) and hydrogen which can be produced in a sustainable manner. This is a fast-evolving area of science and new ideas and processes will be developed in the near future.

Application of Signal Analysis to the Climate

The primary ingredient of the Anthropogenic Global Warming hypothesis, namely, the assumption that additional atmospheric carbon dioxide substantially raises the global temperature, is studied. This is done by looking at the data of temperature and CO2, both in the time domain and in the phase domain of periodic data. Bicentenary measurements are analyzed and a relaxation model is introduced in the form of an electronic equivalent circuit. The effects of this relaxation manifest themselves in delays in the time domain and correlated phase shifts in the phase domain. For extremely long relaxation time constants, the delay is maximally one-quarter period, which for the yearly-periodic signal means 3 months. This is not in line with the analyzed data, the latter showing delays of 9 (-3) months. These results indicate a reverse function of cause and effect, with temperature being the cause for atmospheric CO2 changes, rather than their effect. These two hypotheses are discussed on basis of literature, where it was also reported that CO2 variations are lagging behind temperature variations.

Synchronous change of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during the last deglacial warming

Understanding the role of atmospheric CO2 during past climate changes requires clear knowledge of how it varies in time relative to temperature. Antarctic ice cores preserve highly resolved records of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the past 800,000 years. Here we propose a revised relative age scale for the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the last deglacial warming, using data from five Antarctic ice cores. We infer the phasing between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature at four times when their trends change abruptly. We find no significant asynchrony between them, indicating that Antarctic temperature did not begin to rise hundreds of years before the concentration of atmospheric CO2, as has been suggested by earlier studies.

A field trial of nutrient stimulation of methanotrophs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from landfill cover soils

Landfills are among the major sources of anthropogenic methane (CH4) estimated to reach 40 x 10(9) kg per year worldwide by 2015 (IPCC, 2007). A 2 1/2-year field experiment was conducted at a closed landfill in western Michigan where methanotrophs, methane-consuming bacteria, were stimulated by nutrient addition to the soil without significantly increasing biogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) production. The effects of the nitrogen amendments (KNO3 and NH4Cl), phenylacetylene (a selective inhibitor of nitrifying bacteria that contribute to N2O production), and a canopy (to reduce direct water infiltration) on the vertical soil gas profiles of CH4, CO2, and O2 were measured in the top meter of the soil. Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes were calculated from the corresponding soil gas concentration gradients with respect to depth and a Millington-Quirk diffusivity coefficient in soil derived empirically from soil porosity, water content, and diffusivity coefficients in air from the literature. Methane flux estimates were as high as 218.4 g m(-2) day(-1) in the fall and 12.8 g/m(-2) day(-1) in the summer. During the spring and summer CH4 fluxes were reduced by more than half by adding KNO3 and NH4Cl into the soil as compared to control plots, while N2O fluxes increased substantially. The concurrent addition of phenylacetylene to the amendment decreased peak N2O production by half and the rate of peak methane oxidation by about one-third. The seasonal average methane and N2O flux data were extrapolated to estimate the reduction of CH4 and N2O fluxes into the atmosphere by nitrogen and inhibitor addition to the cover soils. The results suggest that such additions coupled with soil moisture management may provide a potential strategy to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from landfills.

IMPLICATIONS

The results of a 2 1/2-year study of effects of nutrient stimulation on methane oxidation in landfill cover soils demonstrates that nutrient addition does decrease methane emissions. The work further underscores the control which soil moisture exerts on methane oxidation. Water management is critical to the success of methane oxidation strategies.

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Global warming and carbon dioxide through sciences

Increased atmospheric CO(2)-concentration is widely being considered as the main driving factor that causes the phenomenon of global warming. This paper attempts to shed more light on the role of atmospheric CO(2) in relation to temperature-increase and, more generally, in relation to Earth's life through the geological aeons, based on a review-assessment of existing related studies. It is pointed out that there has been a debate on the accuracy of temperature reconstructions as well as on the exact impact that CO(2) has on global warming. Moreover, using three independent sets of data (collected from ice-cores and chemistry) we perform a specific regression analysis which concludes that forecasts about the correlation between CO(2)-concentration and temperature rely heavily on the choice of data used, and one cannot be positive that indeed such a correlation exists (for chemistry data) or even, if existing (for ice-cores data), whether it leads to a "severe" or a "gentle" global warming. A very recent development on the greenhouse phenomenon is a validated adiabatic model, based on laws of physics, forecasting a maximum temperature-increase of 0.01-0.03 degrees C for a value doubling the present concentration of atmospheric CO(2). Through a further review of related studies and facts from disciplines like biology and geology, where CO(2)-change is viewed from a different perspective, it is suggested that CO(2)-change is not necessarily always a negative factor for the environment. In fact it is shown that CO(2)-increase has stimulated the growth of plants, while the CO(2)-change history has altered the physiology of plants. Moreover, data from palaeoclimatology show that the CO(2)-content in the atmosphere is at a minimum in this geological aeon. Finally it is stressed that the understanding of the functioning of Earth's complex climate system (especially for water, solar radiation and so forth) is still poor and, hence, scientific knowledge is not at a level to give definite and precise answers for the causes of global warming.

From the Cover: Antarctic climate signature in the Greenland ice core record

A numerical algorithm is applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) dust record from Greenland to remove the abrupt changes in dust flux associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) oscillations of the last glacial period. The procedure is based on the assumption that the rapid changes in dust are associated with large-scale changes in atmospheric transport and implies that D-O oscillations (in terms of their atmospheric imprint) are more symmetric in form than can be inferred from Greenland temperature records. After removal of the abrupt shifts the residual, dejumped dust record is found to match Antarctic climate variability with a temporal lag of several hundred years. It is argued that such variability may reflect changes in the source region of Greenland dust (thought to be the deserts of eastern Asia). Other records from this region and more globally also reveal Antarctic-style variability and suggest that this signal is globally pervasive. This provides the potential basis for suggesting a more important role for gradual changes in triggering more abrupt transitions in the climate system.

Evidence for last interglacial chronology and environmental change from Southern Europe

Establishing phase relationships between earth-system components during periods of rapid global change is vital to understanding the underlying processes. It requires records of each component with independent and accurate chronologies. Until now, no continental record extending from the present to the penultimate glacial had such a chronology to our knowledge. Here, we present such a record from the annually laminated sediments of Lago Grande di Monticchio, southern Italy. Using this record we determine the duration (17.70 +/- 0.20 ka) and age of onset (127.20 +/- 1.60 ka B.P.) of the last interglacial, as reflected by terrestrial ecosystems. This record also reveals that the transitions at the beginning and end of the interglacial spanned only approximately 100 and 150 years, respectively. Comparison with records of other earth-system components reveals complex leads and lags. During the penultimate deglaciation phase relationships are similar to those during the most recent deglaciation, peaks in Antarctic warming and atmospheric methane both leading Northern Hemisphere terrestrial warming. It is notable, however, that there is no evidence at Monticchio of a Younger Dryas-like oscillation during the penultimate deglaciation. Warming into the first major interstadial event after the last interglacial is characterized by markedly different phase relationships to those of the deglaciations, warming at Monticchio coinciding with Antarctic warming and leading the atmospheric methane increase. Diachroneity is seen at the end of the interglacial; several global proxies indicate progressive cooling after approximately 115 ka B.P., whereas the main terrestrial response in the Mediterranean region is abrupt and occurs at 109.50 +/- 1.40 ka B.P.

Stable Carbon Cycle-Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene

A record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations measured on the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome Concordia ice core extends the Vostok CO2 record back to 650,000 years before the present (yr B.P.). Before 430,000 yr B.P., partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 lies within the range of 260 and 180 parts per million by volume. This range is almost 30% smaller than that of the last four glacial cycles; however, the apparent sensitivity between deuterium and CO2 remains stable throughout the six glacial cycles, suggesting that the relationship between CO2 and Antarctic climate remained rather constant over this interval.

Greenhouse gas growth rates

We posit that feasible reversal of the growth of atmospheric CH(4) and other trace gases would provide a vital contribution toward averting dangerous anthropogenic interference with global climate. Such trace gas reductions may allow stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at an achievable level of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions, even if the added global warming constituting dangerous anthropogenic interference is as small as 1 degrees C. A 1 degrees C limit on global warming, with canonical climate sensitivity, requires peak CO(2) approximately 440 ppm if further non-CO(2) forcing is +0.5 W/m(2), but peak CO(2) approximately 520 ppm if further non-CO(2) forcing is -0.5 W/m(2). The practical result is that a decline of non-CO(2) forcings allows climate forcing to be stabilized with a significantly higher transient level of CO(2) emissions. Increased "natural" emissions of CO(2), N(2)O, and CH(4) are expected in response to global warming. These emissions, an indirect effect of all climate forcings, are small compared with human-made climate forcing and occur on a time scale of a few centuries, but they tend to aggravate the task of stabilizing atmospheric composition.

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long--28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across termination III

The analysis of air bubbles from ice cores has yielded a precise record of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but the timing of changes in these gases with respect to temperature is not accurately known because of uncertainty in the gas age-ice age difference. We have measured the isotopic composition of argon in air bubbles in the Vostok core during Termination III (approximately 240,000 years before the present). This record most likely reflects the temperature and accumulation change, although the mechanism remains unclear. The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 +/- 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.

Forests, carbon and global climate

This review places into context the role that forest ecosystems play in the global carbon cycle, and their potential interactions with climate change. We first examine the natural, preindustrial carbon cycle. Every year forest gross photosynthesis cycles approximately one-twelfth of the atmospheric stock of carbon dioxide, accounting for 50% of terrestrial photosynthesis. This cycling has remained almost constant since the end of the last ice age, but since the Industrial Revolution it has undergone substantial disruption as a result of the injection of 480 PgC into the atmosphere through fossil-fuel combustion and land-use change, including forest clearance. In the second part of this paper we review this 'carbon disruption', and its impact on the oceans, atmosphere and biosphere. Tropical deforestation is resulting in a release of 1.7 PgC yr(-1) into the atmosphere. However, there is also strong evidence for a 'sink' for carbon in natural vegetation (carbon absorption), which can be explained partly by the regrowth of forests on abandoned lands, and partly by a global change factor, the most likely cause being 'fertilization' resulting from the increase in atmospheric CO(2). In the 1990s this biosphere sink was estimated to be sequestering 3.2 PgC yr(-1) and is likely to have substantial effects on the dynamics, structure and biodiversity of all forests. Finally, we examine the potential for forest protection and afforestation to mitigate climate change. An extensive global carbon sequestration programme has the potential to make a particularly significant contribution to controlling the rise in CO2 emissions in the next few decades. In the course of the whole century, however, even the maximum amount of carbon that could be sequestered will be dwarfed by the magnitude of (projected) fossil-fuel emissions. Forest carbon sequestration should only be viewed as a component of a mitigation strategy, not as a substitute for the changes in energy supply, use and technology that will be required if atmospheric CO(2) concentrations are to be stabilized.

Reading a CO2 signal from fossil stomata

The inverse relationship between atmospheric CO₂ and the stomatal index (proportion of epidermal cells that are stomata) of vascular land plant leaves has led to the use of fossil plant cuticles for determining ancient levels of CO₂ . In contemporary plants the stomatal index repeatedly shows a lower sensitivity atmospheric CO₂ levels above 340 ppm in the short term. These observations demonstrate that the phenotypic response is nonlinear and may place constraints on estimating higher-than-present palaeo-CO₂ levels in this way. We review a range of evidence to investigate the nature of this nonlinearity. Our new data, from fossil Ginkgo cuticles, suggest that the genotypic response of fossil Ginkgo closely tracks the phenotypic response seen in CO₂ enrichment experiments. Reconstructed atmospheric CO₂ values from fossil Ginkgo cuticles compare well with the stomatal ratio method of obtaining a quantitative CO₂ signal from extinct fossil plants, and independent geochemical modelling studies of the long-term carbon cycle. Although there is self-consistency between palaeobiological and geochemical CO₂ estimates, it should be recognized that the nonlinear response is a limitation of the stomatal approach to estimating high palaeo-CO₂ levels.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination

A record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, obtained from the Dome Concordia, Antarctica, ice core, reveals that an increase of 76 parts per million by volume occurred over a period of 6000 years in four clearly distinguishable intervals. The close correlation between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature indicates that the Southern Ocean played an important role in causing the CO2 increase. However, the similarity of changes in CO2 concentration and variations of atmospheric methane concentration suggests that processes in the tropics and in the Northern Hemisphere, where the main sources for methane are located, also had substantial effects on atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Dual modes of the carbon cycle since the Last Glacial Maximum

The most conspicuous feature of the record of past climate contained in polar ice is the rapid warming which occurs after long intervals of gradual cooling. During the last four transitions from glacial to interglacial conditions, over which such abrupt warmings occur, ice records indicate that the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere increased by roughly 80 to 100 parts per million by volume. But the causes of the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases are unclear. Here we present the stable-carbon-isotope composition (delta 13 CO2) of CO2 extracted from air trapped in ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica, from the Last Glacial Maximum to the onset of Holocene times. The global carbon cycle is shown to have operated in two distinct primary modes on the timescale of thousands of years, one when climate was changing relatively slowly and another when warming was rapid, each with a characteristic average stable-carbon-isotope composition of the net CO2 exchanged by the atmosphere with the land and oceans. delta 13 CO2 increased between 16.5 and 9 thousand years ago by slightly more than would be estimated to be caused by the physical effects of a 5 degrees C rise in global average sea surface temperature driving a CO2 efflux from the ocean, but our data do not allow specific causes to be constrained.