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Mokhtari A, Pang H, Santillana Farakos S, Davidson GR, Williams EN, Van Doren JM. Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Free Chlorine during Washing of Fresh-Cut Leafy Greens on Escherichia coli O157:H7 Cross-Contamination and Risk of Illness. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2022; 42:966-988. [PMID: 34528270 PMCID: PMC9544649 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2021] [Revised: 08/06/2021] [Accepted: 08/13/2021] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Addition of chlorine-based antimicrobial substances to fresh-cut leafy green wash water is done to minimize microbial cross-contamination during processing. We developed the FDA Leafy Green Risk Assessment Model (FDA-LGRAM) to quantify the impact of free chlorine concentration in wash water during fresh-cut lettuce processing on the extent of water-mediated cross-contamination between shredded lettuce and the associated risk of illness due to exposure to Escherichia coli O157:H7. At different contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads, the model compared the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness per serving between: (1) a scenario where fresh-cut lettuce was packaged without washing; and (2) scenarios involving washing fresh-cut lettuce with different levels of free chlorine (0 ppm, 5 ppm, 10 ppm, 15 ppm, and 20 ppm) prior to packaging. Our results indicate that the free chlorine level in wash water has a substantial impact on the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness associated with E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce. Results showed that the required level of free chlorine that can minimize water-mediated cross-contamination and reduce the corresponding risk of illness depended on contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads. Our model also indicated that the pathogen inactivation rate in wash water via free chlorine was a key model parameter that had a significant impact on the extent of cross-contamination during washing and the predicted associated risk of illness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amir Mokhtari
- Food and Drug AdministrationCenter for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition5001 Campus DriveCollege ParkMaryland20740USA
| | - Hao Pang
- Food and Drug AdministrationCenter for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition5001 Campus DriveCollege ParkMaryland20740USA
| | - Sofia Santillana Farakos
- Food and Drug AdministrationCenter for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition5001 Campus DriveCollege ParkMaryland20740USA
| | - Gordon R. Davidson
- Food and Drug AdministrationCenter for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition5001 Campus DriveCollege ParkMaryland20740USA
| | - Elizabeth Noelia Williams
- Food and Drug AdministrationCenter for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition5001 Campus DriveCollege ParkMaryland20740USA
| | - Jane M. Van Doren
- Food and Drug AdministrationCenter for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition5001 Campus DriveCollege ParkMaryland20740USA
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Madamba T, Moreira RG, Castell‐Perez E, Banerjee A, Silva D. Agent‐based simulation of cross‐contamination of
Escherichia coli
O157
:
H7
on lettuce during processing and temperature fluctuations during storage in a produce facility. Part 2: Model implementation. J FOOD PROCESS ENG 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/jfpe.13983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Tonderai Madamba
- Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department Texas A&M University College Station Texas USA
| | - Rosana G. Moreira
- Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department Texas A&M University College Station Texas USA
| | - Elena Castell‐Perez
- Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department Texas A&M University College Station Texas USA
| | - Amarnath Banerjee
- Industrial and Systems Engineering Department Texas A&M University College Station Texas USA
| | - Dilma Silva
- Computer Science and Engineering Department Texas A&M University College Station Texas USA
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Assessing the Food Safety Risk Posed by Birds Entering Leafy Greens Fields in the US Southwest. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17238711. [PMID: 33255193 PMCID: PMC7727694 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17238711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2020] [Revised: 11/17/2020] [Accepted: 11/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
In the US Southwest, it is common to observe birds in leafy green fields, though the risk they contribute to foodborne outbreaks remains unclear. In this study, we investigated and recorded the relationship between birds near leafy green fields and the risk for contaminated irrigation water or leafy green plants. We monitored the presence of birds for over two years and performed cloacal swab analysis for non-pathogenic Escherichia coli, E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonellaenterica, while also monitoring the incidence of other microbial indicators. We also assessed the risks from bird feces by performing observations in a commercial field reported with Salmonella positive samples and by analyzing the survival of foodborne pathogens in bird feces. Our results showed that most of the birds near the crop fields were resident small birds. We did not observe a correlation between the number of birds in sites and the incidence of indicator bacteria (e.g., coliforms, E. coli) in irrigation canal water, with the exception of one out of four sites where water flow was low or stagnant. Using walk-in-traps, 305 birds were captured and placed in short-term captivity to determine the presence of various bacteria. None of the birds tested positive for E. coli O157:H7 or Salmonella. However, nearly 40% of the birds captured were confirmed positive for non-pathogenic E. coli. We found no correlation between age (young, adult, unknown), gender (male, female, unknown) and the incidence of E. coli positive birds, but we observed significantly higher probability of incidence during October-December. The role of relative humidity and temperature on bacterial survival appeared to play a key role in the survival of Salmonella on the leaves of spinach plants in a commercial field. This was also confirmed in laboratory conditions where Salmonella inoculated in bird feces and exposed to 15 °C and 80% RH(Relative humidity) survived beyond 133 days, while at 26 °C and 40% RH, the organism was undetectable after 63 days. Our results suggest that local birds associated with leafy green fields likely pose a minimal impact of risk for food contamination, but also points out the need for increased analysis specifically for E. coli O157:H7. Furthermore, our study suggests the need for expanding research that addresses risks associated with large migratory birds, especially in areas where stagnated water sources would be used for overhead sprinkle irrigation.
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Kumar GD, Patel J, Ravishankar S. Contamination of spinach at germination: A route to persistence and environmental reintroduction by Salmonella. Int J Food Microbiol 2020; 326:108646. [PMID: 32413802 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2020.108646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2019] [Revised: 04/17/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
The effects of using contaminated seed and water on the persistence and internalization of Salmonella Newport in organic spinach cultivars- Lazio, Space, Emilia and Waitiki were studied. Seeds were contaminated by either immersing in a suspension of Salmonella and then sprouted or were sprouted in Salmonella contaminated water in the dark at 25 °C. After 5 days, germinated sprouts were analyzed for S. Newport population and internalization. Germinated sprouts were potted in soil and grown in a plant incubator for 4 weeks. Leaves, stems and roots were sampled for Salmonella population by plating on CHROMagar™. Plants surface-sterilized with chlorine were analyzed for internalized pathogen. Potting soil and water runoff were sampled for Salmonella after 4 weeks of plant growth. Contaminated seeds and irrigation water had S. Newport populations of 7.64±0.43 log CFU/g and 7.12±0.04 log CFU/ml, respectively. Sprouts germinated using contaminated water or seeds had S. Newport populations of 8.09±0.04 and 8.08±0.03 log CFU/g, respectively and had a Salmonella population that was significantly higher than other spinach tissues (P<0.05). Populations of S. Newport in leaves, stem and roots of spinach plants were as follows: contaminated seed- 2.82±1.69, 1.69±0.86, and 4.41±0.62 log CFU/ml; contaminated water- 3.56±0.90, 3.04±0.31, and 4.03±0.42 log CFU/ml of macerated tissue suspension, respectively. Internalization was observed in plants developing from contaminated seeds and in sprouts germinated using contaminated water. S. Newport populations of 2.82±0.70 log CFU/g and 1.76±0.46 log CFU/ml were recovered from soil and water runoff, respectively. The results indicate that contamination of spinach during germination can result in persistence, internalization and environmental reintroduction of Salmonella.
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Affiliation(s)
- Govindaraj Dev Kumar
- Center for Food Safety, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223, United States of America
| | - Jitendra Patel
- USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Henry A. Wallace Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD 20705, United States of America
| | - Sadhana Ravishankar
- School of Animal and Comparative Biomedical Sciences, University of Arizona, 1117 E. Lowell Street, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States of America.
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Jeamsripong S, Chase JA, Jay-Russell MT, Buchanan RL, Atwill ER. Experimental In-Field Transfer and Survival of Escherichia coli from Animal Feces to Romaine Lettuce in Salinas Valley, California. Microorganisms 2019; 7:microorganisms7100408. [PMID: 31569566 PMCID: PMC6843402 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms7100408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2019] [Revised: 09/23/2019] [Accepted: 09/26/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
This randomized controlled trial characterized the transfer of E. coli from animal feces and/or furrow water onto adjacent heads of lettuce during foliar irrigation, and the subsequent survival of bacteria on the adaxial surface of lettuce leaves. Two experiments were conducted in Salinas Valley, California: (1) to quantify the transfer of indicator E. coli from chicken and rabbit fecal deposits placed in furrows to surrounding lettuce heads on raised beds, and (2) to quantify the survival of inoculated E. coli on Romaine lettuce over 10 days. E. coli was recovered from 97% (174/180) of lettuce heads to a maximal distance of 162.56 cm (5.33 ft) from feces. Distance from sprinklers to feces, cumulative foliar irrigation, and lettuce being located downwind of the fecal deposit were positively associated, while distance from fecal deposit to lettuce was negatively associated with E. coli transference. E. coli exhibited decimal reduction times of 2.2 and 2.5 days when applied on the adaxial surface of leaves within a chicken or rabbit fecal slurry, respectively. Foliar irrigation can transfer E. coli from feces located in a furrow onto adjacent heads of lettuce, likely due to the kinetic energy of irrigation droplets impacting the fecal surface and/or impacting furrow water contaminated with feces, with the magnitude of E. coli enumerated per head of lettuce influenced by the distance between lettuce and the fecal deposit, cumulative application of foliar irrigation, wind aspect of lettuce relative to feces, and time since final irrigation. Extending the time period between foliar irrigation and harvest, along with a 152.4 cm (5 ft) no-harvest buffer zone when animal fecal material is present, may substantially reduce the level of bacterial contamination on harvested lettuce.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saharuetai Jeamsripong
- Western Center for Food Safety, University of California, Davis, CA 95618, USA (M.T.J.-R.)
- Research Unit in Microbial Food Safety and Antimicrobial Resistance, Department of Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
| | - Jennifer A. Chase
- Western Center for Food Safety, University of California, Davis, CA 95618, USA (M.T.J.-R.)
| | - Michele T. Jay-Russell
- Western Center for Food Safety, University of California, Davis, CA 95618, USA (M.T.J.-R.)
| | - Robert L. Buchanan
- Center of Food Safety and Security Systems, College of Agricultural and Natural Resources, University of Maryland, MD 20742, USA;
| | - Edward R. Atwill
- Research Unit in Microbial Food Safety and Antimicrobial Resistance, Department of Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
- Correspondence:
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7
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Zoellner C, Al-Mamun MA, Grohn Y, Jackson P, Worobo R. Postharvest Supply Chain with Microbial Travelers: a Farm-to-Retail Microbial Simulation and Visualization Framework. Appl Environ Microbiol 2018; 84:e00813-18. [PMID: 29959243 PMCID: PMC6102990 DOI: 10.1128/aem.00813-18] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Accepted: 06/18/2018] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Fresh produce supply chains present variable and diverse conditions that are relevant to food quality and safety because they may favor microbial growth and survival following contamination. This study presents the development of a simulation and visualization framework to model microbial dynamics on fresh produce moving through postharvest supply chain processes. The postharvest supply chain with microbial travelers (PSCMT) tool provides a modular process modeling approach and graphical user interface to visualize microbial populations and evaluate practices specific to any fresh produce supply chain. The resulting modeling tool was validated with empirical data from an observed tomato supply chain from Mexico to the United States, including the packinghouse, distribution center, and supermarket locations, as an illustrative case study. Due to data limitations, a model-fitting exercise was conducted to demonstrate the calibration of model parameter ranges for microbial indicator populations, i.e., mesophilic aerobic microorganisms (quantified by aerobic plate count and here termed APC) and total coliforms (TC). Exploration and analysis of the parameter space refined appropriate parameter ranges and revealed influential parameters for supermarket indicator microorganism levels on tomatoes. Partial rank correlation coefficient analysis determined that APC levels in supermarkets were most influenced by removal due to spray water washing and microbial growth on the tomato surface at postharvest locations, while TC levels were most influenced by growth on the tomato surface at postharvest locations. Overall, this detailed mechanistic dynamic model of microbial behavior is a unique modeling tool that complements empirical data and visualizes how postharvest supply chain practices influence the fate of microbial contamination on fresh produce.IMPORTANCE Preventing the contamination of fresh produce with foodborne pathogens present in the environment during production and postharvest handling is an important food safety goal. Since studying foodborne pathogens in the environment is a complex and costly endeavor, computer simulation models can help to understand and visualize microorganism behavior resulting from supply chain activities. The postharvest supply chain with microbial travelers (PSCMT) model, presented here, provides a unique tool for postharvest supply chain simulations to evaluate microbial contamination. The tool was validated through modeling an observed tomato supply chain. Visualization of dynamic contamination levels from harvest to the supermarket and analysis of the model parameters highlighted critical points where intervention may prevent microbial levels sufficient to cause foodborne illness. The PSCMT model framework and simulation results support ongoing postharvest research and interventions to improve understanding and control of fresh produce contamination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claire Zoellner
- Department of Food Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Mohammad Abdullah Al-Mamun
- Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Yrjo Grohn
- Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Peter Jackson
- Department of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Randy Worobo
- Department of Food Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
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Wang D, Huber A, Dunfield K, Murray K, Wu F, Warriner K. Comparative persistence of Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in loam or sandy loam soil amended with bovine or swine manure. Can J Microbiol 2018; 64:979-991. [PMID: 30148968 DOI: 10.1139/cjm-2018-0234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
The fate of Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in swine or dairy manure amended into sandy loam or loam soil under field conditions was studied. Soil was amended with manure inoculated with a Salmonella or E. coli O157:H7 cocktail, then transferred to 0.22 μm pore size membrane walled vials. The vials were then placed on the surface or at 15 cm depth in the test plots. Pathogen numbers, soil moisture, rainfall, and temperature were measured throughout the three trials (20-47 weeks duration) representing spring or fall application. Survival curves were characterized by having an initial rapid decline in pathogen numbers followed by a slower inactivation phase with an occasional increase in culturable cells. The CT99.9 values (time to reach a 3 log CFU reduction) varied from 2 to 120 days, with the most rapid decrease being observed on the surface of sandy loam soil. The persistence of pathogens is primarily governed by variations in moisture and temperature, although season of application along with manure and soil type also contribute. To generate more accurate predictive pathogen models, there is a need for laboratory-based trials to mirror the dynamic variation in temperature and soil moisture encountered within the natural environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Wang
- a Department of Food Science, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - A Huber
- b Soil Research Group, Guelph, ON N1H 2Y5, Canada
| | - K Dunfield
- c School of Environmental Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - K Murray
- a Department of Food Science, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - F Wu
- a Department of Food Science, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - K Warriner
- a Department of Food Science, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
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9
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Evaluation of meteorological factors associated with pre-harvest contamination risk of generic Escherichia coli in a mixed produce and dairy farm. Food Control 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.foodcont.2017.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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10
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Chapman B, Pintar K, Smith BA. Multi-Exposure Pathway Model to Compare Escherichia coli O157 Risks and Interventions. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2018; 38:392-409. [PMID: 28471504 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2016] [Revised: 03/09/2017] [Accepted: 03/14/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
The relative contributions of exposure pathways associated with cattle-manure-borne Escherichia coli O157:H7 on public health have yet to be fully characterized. A stochastic, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed to describe a hypothetical cattle farm in order to compare the relative importance of five routes of exposure, including aquatic recreation downstream of the farm, consumption of contaminated ground beef processed with limited interventions, consumption of leafy greens, direct animal contact, and the recreational use of a cattle pasture. To accommodate diverse environmental and hydrological pathways, existing QMRAs were integrated with novel and simplistic climate and field-level submodels. The model indicated that direct animal contact presents the greatest risk of illness per exposure event during the high pathogen shedding period. However, when accounting for the frequency of exposure, using a high-risk exposure-receptor profile, consumption of ground beef was associated with the greatest risk of illness. Additionally, the model was used to evaluate the efficacy of hypothetical interventions affecting one or more exposure routes; concurrent evaluation of multiple routes allowed for the assessment of the combined effect of preharvest interventions across exposure pathways-which may have been previously underestimated-as well as the assessment of the effect of additional downstream interventions. This analysis represents a step towards a full evaluation of the risks associated with multiple exposure pathways; future incorporation of variability associated with environmental parameters and human behaviors would allow for a comprehensive assessment of the relative contribution of exposure pathways at the population level.
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Affiliation(s)
- B Chapman
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, ON, Canada
- University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - K Pintar
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - B A Smith
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, ON, Canada
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11
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Newell DG, La Ragione RM. Enterohaemorrhagic and other Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC): Where are we now regarding diagnostics and control strategies? Transbound Emerg Dis 2018; 65 Suppl 1:49-71. [PMID: 29369531 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12789] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2017] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Escherichia coli comprises a highly diverse group of Gram-negative bacteria and is a common member of the intestinal microflora of humans and animals. Generally, such colonization is asymptomatic; however, some E. coli strains have evolved to become pathogenic and thus cause clinical disease in susceptible hosts. One pathotype, the Shiga toxigenic E. coli (STEC) comprising strains expressing a Shiga-like toxin is an important foodborne pathogen. A subset of STEC are the enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), which can cause serious human disease, including haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). The diagnosis of EHEC infections and the surveillance of STEC in the food chain and the environment require accurate, cost-effective and timely tests. In this review, we describe and evaluate tests now in routine use, as well as upcoming test technologies for pathogen detection, including loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) and whole-genome sequencing (WGS). We have considered the need for improved diagnostic tools in current strategies for the control and prevention of these pathogens in humans, the food chain and the environment. We conclude that although significant progress has been made, STEC still remains an important zoonotic issue worldwide. Substantial reductions in the public health burden due to this infection will require a multipronged approach, including ongoing surveillance with high-resolution diagnostic techniques currently being developed and integrated into the routine investigations of public health laboratories. However, additional research requirements may be needed before such high-resolution diagnostic tools can be used to enable the development of appropriate interventions, such as vaccines and decontamination strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- D G Newell
- Department of Pathology and Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
| | - R M La Ragione
- Department of Pathology and Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
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12
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Identifying and modeling meteorological risk factors associated with pre-harvest contamination of Listeria species in a mixed produce and dairy farm. Food Res Int 2017; 102:355-363. [PMID: 29195959 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodres.2017.09.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2017] [Revised: 09/01/2017] [Accepted: 09/08/2017] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
This study sought to investigate the prevalence of Listeria species (including L. monocytogenes) in a mixed produce and dairy farm and to identify specific meteorological factors affecting Listeria spp. presence. Environmental samples were collected monthly from locations within the mixed farm over 14months and were analyzed for Listeria spp. Meteorological factors were evaluated for their association with the presence of Listeria spp. by using logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). The developed LR model identified wind speed and precipitation as significant risk factors (P<0.05), indicating higher wind speed at day 2 prior to sampling and higher average precipitation over the previous 25days before sampling increased the probability of isolation of Listeria spp. from the mixed farm. Results from RF revealed that average wind speed at day 2 prior to sampling and average precipitation in the previous 25days before sampling were the most important factors influencing the presence of Listeria spp., which supported the findings from LR. These findings indicate that the occurrence of Listeria spp. was influenced by wind speed and precipitation, suggesting run-off and wind-driven dust might be possible routes of pathogen transmission in mixed farms. The developed LR and RF models, with robust predictive performances as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, can be used to predict Listeria spp. contamination risk in a mixed farm under different weather conditions and can help with the evaluation of farm management practices and the development of control strategies aimed at reducing pre-harvest microbial contamination in a mixed farming system.
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