Reassessment of the cadmium toxicological reference value for use in human health assessments of foods

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) developed an oral toxicological reference value (TRV) for characterizing potential health concerns from dietary exposure to cadmium (Cd). The development of the TRV leveraged the FDA's previously published research including (1) a systematic review for adverse health effects associated with oral Cd exposure and (2) a human physiological based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model adapted from Kjellstrom and Nordberg (1978) for use in reverse dosimetry applied to the U.S. population. Adverse effects of Cd on the bone and kidney are associated with similar points of departure (PODs) of approximately 0.50 μg Cd/g creatinine for females aged 50-60 based on available epidemiologic data. We also used the upper bound estimate of the renal cortical concentration (50 μg/g Cd) occurring in the U.S. population at 50 years of age as a POD. Based on the output from our reverse dosimetry PBPK Model, a range of 0.21-0.36 μg/kg bw/day was developed for the TRV. The animal data used for the animal TRV derivation (0.63-1.8 μg/kg bw/day) confirms biological plausibility for both the bone and kidney endpoints.

Quantitative risk assessment-epidemic curve prediction model for leafy green outbreak investigation

The objective of this study was to leverage quantitative risk assessment to investigate possible root cause(s) of foodborne illness outbreaks related to Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC O157) infections in leafy greens in the United States. To this end, we developed the FDA leafy green quantitative risk assessment epidemic curve prediction model (FDA-LG QRA-EC) that simulated the lettuce supply chain. The model was used to predict the number of reported illnesses and the epidemic curve associated with lettuce contaminated with STEC O157 for a wide range of scenarios representing various contamination conditions and facility processing/sanitation practices. Model predictions were generated for fresh-cut and whole lettuce, quantifying the differing impacts of facility processing and home preparation on predicted illnesses. Our model revealed that the timespan (i.e., number of days with at least one reported illness) and the peak (i.e., day with the most predicted number of reported illnesses) of the epidemic curve of a STEC O157-lettuce outbreak were not strongly influenced by facility processing/sanitation practices and were indications of contamination pattern among incoming lettuce batches received by the facility or distribution center. Through comparisons with observed number of illnesses from recent STEC O157-lettuce outbreaks, the model identified contamination conditions on incoming lettuce heads that could result in an outbreak of similar size, which can be used to narrow down potential root cause hypotheses.

Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, and Campylobacter spp. in raw milk in the United States between 2000 and 2019: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Raw (unpasteurized) milk is available for sale and direct human consumption within some states in the United States (US); it cannot be sold or distributed in interstate commerce. Raw milk may contain pathogenic microorganisms that, when consumed, may cause illness and sometimes may result in death. No comprehensive review for prevalence and levels of the major bacterial pathogens in raw milk in the US exists. The objective of the present research was to systematically review the scientific literature published from 2000 to 2019 to estimate the prevalence and levels of Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), and Campylobacter spp. in raw milk in the US. Peer-reviewed studies were retrieved systematically from PubMed®, Embase®, and Web of Science^TM. The unique complete nonduplicate references were uploaded into the Health Assessment Work Collaborative (HAWC). Based on the selection criteria, twenty studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) was used for statistical analyses, specifically, random effects meta-analyses were used to synthesize raw bulk tank milk (BTM) and milk filters (MF) data. Data from studies using culture and non-culture-based detection methods were included. Forest plots generated in CMA (Biostat, Englewood, NJ) were used to visualize the results. The average prevalence (event rate) of L. monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., STEC, and Campylobacter spp. in raw BTM in the US was estimated at 4.3% (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 2.8-6.5%), 3.6% (95% CIs, 2.0-6.2%), 4.3% (95% CIs, 2.4-7.4%), and 6.0% (95% CIs, 3.2-10.9%), respectively. Estimated prevalence was generally larger in MF than in BTM. There was not enough data to perform a meta-analysis for the prevalence or levels of pathogens in raw milk from retail establishments or other milk categories.

Leveraging risk assessment for foodborne outbreak investigations: The Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model

Root cause analysis can be used in foodborne illness outbreak investigations to determine the underlying causes of an outbreak and to help identify actions that could be taken to prevent future outbreaks. We developed a new tool, the Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model (QRA-EC), to assist with these goals and applied it to a case study to investigate and illustrate the utility of leveraging quantitative risk assessment to provide unique insights for foodborne illness outbreak root cause analysis. We used a 2019 Salmonella outbreak linked to melons as a case study to demonstrate the utility of this model (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2019). The model was used to evaluate the impact of various root cause hypotheses (representing different contamination sources and food safety system failures in the melon supply chain) on the predicted number and timeline of illnesses. The predicted number of illnesses varied by contamination source and was strongly impacted by the prevalence and level of Salmonella contamination on the surface/inside of whole melons and inside contamination niches on equipment surfaces. The timeline of illnesses was most strongly impacted by equipment sanitation efficacy for contamination niches. Evaluations of a wide range of scenarios representing various potential root causes enabled us to identify which hypotheses, were likely to result in an outbreak of similar size and illness timeline to the 2019 Salmonella melon outbreak. The QRA-EC framework can be adapted to accommodate any food-pathogen pairs to provide insights for foodborne outbreak investigations.

Modeling the risk of low bone mass and osteoporosis as a function of urinary cadmium in U.S adults aged 50-79 years

We developed an association model to estimate the risk of femoral neck low bone mass and osteoporosis from exposure to cadmium for women and men aged 50-79 in the U.S, as a function of the urinary cadmium (U-Cd) levels. We analyzed data from the NHANES 2005-2014 surveys and evaluated the relationship between U-Cd and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) using univariate and multivariate regression models with a combination of NHANES cycle, gender, age, smoking, race/ethnicity, height, body weight, body mass index, lean body mass, diabetes, kidney disease, physical activity, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, urinary lead, and prednisone intake as confounding variables. The regression coefficient between U-Cd and femoral neck BMD obtained with the best multivariate regression was used to develop an association model that can estimate the additional risk of low bone mass or osteoporosis in the population given a certain level of U-Cd. Results showed a linear relationship between U-Cd and BMD, conditional to body weight, where individuals with higher U-Cd had decreased BMD values. Our results do not support the hypothesis of a threshold for the effect of Cd on bone. Our model estimates that exposure to Cd results in an increase of 0.51 percentage points (CI95% 0.00, 0.92) of the population diagnosed with osteoporosis, compared to a theoretical absence of exposure. We estimate that 16% (CI95%: 0.00, 40%) of osteoporosis cases in the U.S. 50-79 aged population are a result of Cd exposure. This study presents the first continuous model estimating low bone mass and osteoporosis risk in the U.S. population given actual or potential changes in U-Cd levels. Our model will provide information to inform FDA's Closer to Zero initiative goal to reduce exposure to toxic elements.

Cadmium physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for forward and reverse dosimetry: Review, evaluation, and adaptation to the U.S. population

The goal of this study was to assess a cadmium (Cd) physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to evaluate Cd toxicological reference values (e.g. reference dose, tolerable intake, minimum risk level) adapted to the U.S. population. We reviewed and evaluated previously published Cd PBPK models and developed further adaptations to the 1978 Kjellström and Nordberg (KN) model. Specifically, we propose adaptations with updated U.S.-specific bodyweight, kidney weight and creatinine excretion models by using NHANES data as well as a stochastic PBPK model that provides credible intervals of uncertainty around mean populational estimates. We provide our model review and adaptations as well as present estimates from the newly adapted models using observed U.S. urinary Cd values as a function of gender and age and given dietary exposure as evaluated from NHANES/WWEIA and U.S. Total Diet Study data. Results show all newly adapted models provide acceptable mean estimates of urinary Cd in the U.S. The stochastic model provides credible intervals to further inform regulatory decision making. Validation of the estimated K-Cd concentration values was not possible as data for a representative population was not available. We developed a web-based tool implementing these models and other potential adaptations to facilitate PBPK model estimate comparisons.

Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Free Chlorine during Washing of Fresh-Cut Leafy Greens on Escherichia coli O157:H7 Cross-Contamination and Risk of Illness

Addition of chlorine-based antimicrobial substances to fresh-cut leafy green wash water is done to minimize microbial cross-contamination during processing. We developed the FDA Leafy Green Risk Assessment Model (FDA-LGRAM) to quantify the impact of free chlorine concentration in wash water during fresh-cut lettuce processing on the extent of water-mediated cross-contamination between shredded lettuce and the associated risk of illness due to exposure to Escherichia coli O157:H7. At different contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads, the model compared the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness per serving between: (1) a scenario where fresh-cut lettuce was packaged without washing; and (2) scenarios involving washing fresh-cut lettuce with different levels of free chlorine (0 ppm, 5 ppm, 10 ppm, 15 ppm, and 20 ppm) prior to packaging. Our results indicate that the free chlorine level in wash water has a substantial impact on the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness associated with E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce. Results showed that the required level of free chlorine that can minimize water-mediated cross-contamination and reduce the corresponding risk of illness depended on contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads. Our model also indicated that the pathogen inactivation rate in wash water via free chlorine was a key model parameter that had a significant impact on the extent of cross-contamination during washing and the predicted associated risk of illness.

Risk Assessment of Norovirus Illness from Consumption of Raw Oysters in the United States and in Canada

Human norovirus (NoV) is the leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States and Canada. Bivalve molluscan shellfish is one commodity commonly identified as being a vector of NoV. Bivalve molluscan shellfish are grown in waters that may be affected by contamination events, tend to bioaccumulate viruses, and are frequently eaten raw. In an effort to better assess the elements that contribute to potential risk of NoV infection and illness from consumption of bivalve molluscan shellfish, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services/Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Health Canada (HC), the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) collaborated to conduct a quantitative risk assessment for NoV in bivalve molluscan shellfish, notably oysters. This study describes the model and scenarios developed and results obtained to assess the risk of NoV infection and illness from consumption of raw oysters harvested from a quasi-steady-state situation. Among the many factors that influence the risk of NoV illness for raw oyster consumers, the concentrations of NoV in the influent (raw, untreated) and effluent (treated) of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) were identified to be the most important. Thus, mitigation and control strategies that limit the influence from human waste (WWTP outfalls) in oyster growing areas have a major influence on the risk of illness from consumption of those oysters.

Implementing a risk-risk analysis framework to evaluate the impact of food intake shifts on risk of illness: a case study with infant cereal

In food safety, process pathway risk assessments usually estimate the risk of illness from a single hazard and a single food and can inform food safety decisions and consumer advice. To evaluate the health impact of a potential change in diet, we need to understand not only the risk posed by the considered hazard and food but also the risk posed by the substitution food and other potential hazards. We developed a framework to provide decision-makers with a multi-faceted evaluation of the impact of dietary shifts on risk of illness. Our case study explored exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) and aflatoxins through consumption of infant cereals and the risk of developing lung, bladder and liver cancer over a lifetime. The estimated additional Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) in the U.S. from exposure to iAs and aflatoxin based on available contamination and consumption patterns of infant rice and oat cereal is 4,921 (CI 90% 414; 9,071). If all infant cereal consumers shift intake (maintaining equivalent serving size and frequency) to only consuming infant rice cereal, the predicted DALY increases to 6,942 (CI 90% 326; 12,931). If all infant cereal consumers shift intake to only consuming infant oat cereal, the predicted DALY decreases to 1,513 (CI 90% 312; 3,356). Changes in contaminant concentrations or percent consumers, that could occur in the future, also significantly impact the predicted risk. Uncertainty in these risk predictions is primarily driven by the dose-response models. A risk-risk analysis framework provides decision-makers with a nuanced understanding of the public health impact of dietary changes and can be applied to other food safety and nutrition questions.

A Predictive Model for Survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Generic E. coli in Soil Amended with Untreated Animal Manure

This study aimed at developing a predictive model that captures the influences of a variety of agricultural and environmental variables and is able to predict the concentrations of enteric bacteria in soil amended with untreated Biological Soil Amendments of Animal Origin (BSAAO) under dynamic conditions. We developed and validated a Random Forest model using data from a longitudinal field study conducted in mid-Atlantic United States investigating the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli in soils amended with untreated dairy manure, horse manure, or poultry litter. Amendment type, days of rain since the previous sampling day, and soil moisture content were identified as the most influential agricultural and environmental variables impacting concentrations of viable E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli recovered from amended soils. Our model results also indicated that E. coli O157:H7 and generic E. coli declined at similar rates in amended soils under dynamic field conditions.The Random Forest model accurately predicted changes in viable E. coli concentrations over time under different agricultural and environmental conditions. Our model also accurately characterized the variability of E. coli concentration in amended soil over time by providing upper and lower prediction bound estimates. Cross-validation results indicated that our model can be potentially generalized to other geographic regions and incorporated into a risk assessment for evaluating the risks associated with application of untreated BSAAO. Our model can be validated for other regions and predictive performance also can be enhanced when data sets from additional geographic regions become available.

Genetic diversity and profiles of genes associated with virulence and stress resistance among isolates from the 2010-2013 interagency Listeria monocytogenes market basket survey

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) was performed on 201 Listeria monocytogenes isolates recovered from 102 of 27,389 refrigerated ready-to-eat (RTE) food samples purchased at retail in U.S. FoodNet sites as part of the 2010-2013 interagency L. monocytogenes Market Basket Survey (Lm MBS). Core genome multi-locus sequence typing (cgMLST) and in-silico analyses were conducted, and these data were analyzed with metadata for isolates from five food groups: produce, seafood, dairy, meat, and combination foods. Six of 201 isolates, from 3 samples, were subsequently confirmed as L. welshimeri. Three samples contained one isolate per sample; mmong the 96 samples that contained two isolates per sample, 3 samples each contained two different strains and 93 samples each contained duplicate isolates. After 93 duplicate isolates were removed, the remaining 102 isolates were delineated into 29 clonal complexes (CCs) or singletons based on their sequence type. The five most prevalent CCs were CC155, CC1, CC5, CC87, and CC321. The Shannon's diversity index for clones per food group ranged from 1.49 for dairy to 2.32 for produce isolates, which were not significantly different in pairwise comparisons. The most common molecular serogroup as determined by in-silico analysis was IIa (45.6%), followed by IIb (27.2%), IVb (20.4%), and IIc (4.9%). The proportions of isolates within lineages I, II, and III were 48.0%, 50.0% and 2.0%, respectively. Full-length inlA was present in 89.3% of isolates. Listeria pathogenicity island 3 (LIPI-3) and LIPI-4 were found in 51% and 30.6% of lineage I isolates, respectively. Stress survival islet 1 (SSI-1) was present in 34.7% of lineage I isolates, 80.4% of lineage II isolates and the 2 lineage III isolates; SSI-2 was present only in the CC121 isolate. Plasmids were found in 48% of isolates, including 24.5% of lineage I isolates and 72.5% of lineage II isolates. Among the plasmid-carrying isolates, 100% contained at least one cadmium resistance cassette and 89.8% contained bcrABC, involved in quaternary ammonium compound tolerance. Multiple clusters of isolates from different food samples were identified by cgMLST which, along with available metadata, could aid in the investigation of possible cross-contamination and persistence events.

An Agent-Based Model for Pathogen Persistence and Cross-Contamination Dynamics in a Food Facility

We used an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework and developed a mathematical model to explain the complex dynamics of microbial persistence and spread within a food facility and to aid risk managers in identifying effective mitigation options. The model explicitly considered personal hygiene practices by food handlers as well as their activities and simulated a spatially explicit dynamic system representing complex interaction patterns among food handlers, facility environment, and foods. To demonstrate the utility of the model in a decision-making context, we created a hypothetical case study and used it to compare different risk mitigation strategies for reducing contamination and spread of Listeria monocytogenes in a food facility. Model results indicated that areas with no direct contact with foods (e.g., loading dock and restroom) can serve as contamination niches and recontaminate areas that have direct contact with food products. Furthermore, food handlers' behaviors, including, for example, hygiene and sanitation practices, can impact the persistence of microbial contamination in the facility environment and the spread of contamination to prepared foods. Using this case study, we also demonstrated benefits of an ABM framework for addressing food safety in a complex system in which emergent system-level responses are predicted using a bottom-up approach that observes individual agents (e.g., food handlers) and their behaviors. Our model can be applied to a wide variety of pathogens, food commodities, and activity patterns to evaluate efficacy of food-safety management practices and quantify contamination reductions associated with proposed mitigation strategies in food facilities.

Differences Among Incidence Rates of Invasive Listeriosis in the U.S. FoodNet Population by Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Pregnancy Status, 2008-2016

Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen that disproportionally affects pregnant females, older adults, and immunocompromised individuals. Using U.S. Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) surveillance data, we examined listeriosis incidence rates and rate ratios (RRs) by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and pregnancy status across three periods from 2008 to 2016, as recent incidence trends in U.S. subgroups had not been evaluated. The invasive listeriosis annual incidence rate per 100,000 for 2008-2016 was 0.28 cases among the general population (excluding pregnant females), and 3.73 cases among pregnant females. For adults ≥70 years, the annual incidence rate per 100,000 was 1.33 cases. No significant change in estimated listeriosis incidence was found over the 2008-2016 period, except for a small, but significantly lower pregnancy-associated rate in 2011-2013 when compared with 2008-2010. Among the nonpregnancy-associated cases, RRs increased with age from 0.43 (95% confidence interval: 0.25-0.73) for 0- to 14-year olds to 44.9 (33.5-60.0) for ≥85-year olds, compared with 15- to 44-year olds. Males had an incidence of 1.28 (1.12-1.45) times that of females. Compared with non-Hispanic whites, the incidence was 1.57 (1.18-1.20) times higher among non-Hispanic Asians, 1.49 (1.22-1.83) among non-Hispanic blacks, and 1.73 (1.15-2.62) among Hispanics. Among females of childbearing age, non-Hispanic Asian females had 2.72 (1.51-4.89) and Hispanic females 3.13 (2.12-4.89) times higher incidence than non-Hispanic whites. We observed a higher percentage of deaths among older patient groups compared with 15- to 44-year olds. This study is the first characterizing higher RRs for listeriosis in the United States among non-Hispanic blacks and Asians compared with non-Hispanic whites. This information for public health risk managers may spur further research to understand if differences in listeriosis rates relate to differences in consumption patterns of foods with higher contamination levels, food handling practices, comorbidities, immunodeficiencies, health care access, or other factors.

GenomeGraphR: A user-friendly open-source web application for foodborne pathogen whole genome sequencing data integration, analysis, and visualization

Food safety risk assessments and large-scale epidemiological investigations have the potential to provide better and new types of information when whole genome sequence (WGS) data are effectively integrated. Today, the NCBI Pathogen Detection database WGS collections have grown significantly through improvements in technology, coordination, and collaboration, such as the GenomeTrakr and PulseNet networks. However, high-quality genomic data is not often coupled with high-quality epidemiological or food chain metadata. We have created a set of tools for cleaning, curation, integration, analysis and visualization of microbial genome sequencing data. It has been tested using Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes data sets provided by NCBI Pathogen Detection (160,000 sequenced isolates in 2018). GenomeGraphR presents foodborne pathogen WGS data and associated curated metadata in a user-friendly interface that allows a user to query a variety of research questions such as, transmission sources and dynamics, global reach, and persistence of genotypes associated with contamination in the food supply and foodborne illness across time or space. The application is freely available (https://fda-riskmodels.foodrisk.org/genomegraphr/).

Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing

We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0-5-log₁₀ reduction in Salmonella) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15,400-248,000) cases/year. Risk reduction (by 5- to 7-fold) predicted from a 1-log₁₀ seed treatment alone was comparable to SIW testing alone, and each additional 1-log₁₀ seed treatment was predicted to provide a greater risk reduction than SIW testing. A 3-log₁₀ or a 5-log₁₀ seed treatment reduced the predicted cases/year to 139 (95% CI 33-448) or 1.4 (95% CI <1-4.5), respectively. Combined with SIW testing, a 3-log₁₀ or 5-log₁₀ seed treatment reduced the cases/year to 45 (95% CI 10-146) or <1 (95% CI <1-1.5), respectively. If the SIW coverage was less complete (i.e., less representative), a smaller risk reduction was predicted, e.g., a combined 3-log₁₀ seed treatment and SIW testing with 20% coverage resulted in an estimated 92 (95% CI 22-298) cases/year. Analysis of alternative scenarios using different assumptions for key model inputs showed that the predicted relative risk reductions are robust. This risk assessment provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the public health impact of various interventions in a sprout production system.

Infectious Dose of Listeria monocytogenes in Outbreak Linked to Ice Cream, United States, 2015

Listeriosis can occur in susceptible populations when products with low-level contamination are distributed widely.

The relationship between the number of ingested Listeria monocytogenes cells in food and the likelihood of developing listeriosis is not well understood. Data from an outbreak of listeriosis linked to milkshakes made from ice cream produced in 1 factory showed that contaminated products were distributed widely to the public without any reported cases, except for 4 cases of severe illness in persons who were highly susceptible. The ingestion of high doses of L. monocytogenes by these patients infected through milkshakes was unlikely if possible additional contamination associated with the preparation of the milkshake is ruled out. This outbreak illustrated that the vast majority of the population did not become ill after ingesting a low level of L. monocytogenes but raises the question of listeriosis cases in highly susceptible persons after distribution of low-level contaminated products that did not support the growth of this pathogen.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Norovirus Transmission in Food Establishments: Evaluating the Impact of Intervention Strategies and Food Employee Behavior on the Risk Associated with Norovirus in Foods

We developed a quantitative risk assessment model using a discrete event framework to quantify and study the risk associated with norovirus transmission to consumers through food contaminated by infected food employees in a retail food setting. This study focused on the impact of ill food workers experiencing symptoms of diarrhea and vomiting and potential control measures for the transmission of norovirus to foods. The model examined the behavior of food employees regarding exclusion from work while ill and after symptom resolution and preventive measures limiting food contamination during preparation. The mean numbers of infected customers estimated for 21 scenarios were compared to the estimate for a baseline scenario representing current practices. Results show that prevention strategies examined could not prevent norovirus transmission to food when a symptomatic employee was present in the food establishment. Compliance with exclusion from work of symptomatic food employees is thus critical, with an estimated range of 75-226% of the baseline mean for full to no compliance, respectively. Results also suggest that efficient handwashing, handwashing frequency associated with gloving compliance, and elimination of contact between hands, faucets, and door handles in restrooms reduced the mean number of infected customers to 58%, 62%, and 75% of the baseline, respectively. This study provides quantitative data to evaluate the relative efficacy of policy and practices at retail to reduce norovirus illnesses and provides new insights into the interactions and interplay of prevention strategies and compliance in reducing transmission of foodborne norovirus.

Prevalence of Salmonella in 11 Spices Offered for Sale from Retail Establishments and in Imported Shipments Offered for Entry to the United States

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration conducted a survey to evaluate Salmonella prevalence and aerobic plate counts in packaged (dried) spices offered for sale at retail establishments in the United States. The study included 7,250 retail samples of 11 spice types that were collected during November 2013 to September 2014 and October 2014 to March 2015. No Salmonella-positive samples (based on analysis of 125 g) were found among retail samples of cumin seed (whole or ground), sesame seed (whole, not roasted or toasted, and not black), and white pepper (ground or cracked), for prevalence estimates of 0.00% with 95% Clopper and Pearson's confidence intervals of 0.00 to 0.67%, 0.00 to 0.70%, and 0.00 to 0.63%, respectively. Salmonella prevalence estimates (confidence intervals) for the other eight spice types were 0.19% (0.0048 to 1.1%) for basil leaf (whole, ground, crushed, or flakes), 0.24% (0.049 to 0.69%) for black pepper (whole, ground, or cracked), 0.56% (0.11 to 1.6%) for coriander seed (ground), 0.19% (0.0049 to 1.1%) for curry powder (ground mixture of spices), 0.49% (0.10 to 1.4%) for dehydrated garlic (powder, granules, or flakes), 0.15% (0.0038 to 0.83%) for oregano leaf (whole, ground, crushed, or flakes), 0.25% (0.03 to 0.88%) for paprika (ground or cracked), and 0.64% (0.17 to 1.6%) for red pepper (hot red pepper, e.g., chili, cayenne; ground, cracked, crushed, or flakes). Salmonella isolates were serotyped, and genomes were sequenced. Samples of these same 11 spice types were also examined from shipments of imported spices offered for entry to the United States from 1 October 2011 to 30 September 2015. Salmonella prevalence estimates (based on analysis of two 375-g composite samples) for shipments of imported spices were 1.7 to 18%. The Salmonella prevalence estimates for spices offered for sale at retail establishments for all of the spice types except dehydrated garlic and basil were significantly lower than estimates for shipments of imported spice offered for entry.

Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure?

Listeria monocytogenes is an important cause of foodborne illness hospitalization, fetal loss, and death in the United States. Listeriosis incidence rate varies significantly among population subgroups with pregnant women, older persons, and the Hispanic population having increased relative risks compared with the other subpopulations. Using estimated rates of listeriosis per subpopulation based on FoodNet data from 2004 to 2009, we evaluate the expected number of cases and incidence rates of listeriosis in the US population and the pregnant women subpopulation as the demographic composition changes over time with respect to ethnicity, pregnancy status, and age distribution. If the incidence rate per subpopulation is held constant, the overall US population listeriosis incidence rate would increase from 0.25 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19-0.34) in 2010 to 0.28 (95% CI: 0.22-0.38) in 2020 and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.25-0.43) in 2030, because of the changes in the population structure. Similarly, the pregnancy-associated incidence rate is expected to increase from 4.0 per 100,000 pregnant women (95% CI: 2.5-6.5) in 2010 to 4.1 (95% CI: 2.6-6.7) in 2020 and 4.4 (95% CI: 2.7-7.2) in 2030 as the proportion of Hispanic pregnant women increases. We further estimate that a reduction of 12% in the exposure of the US population to L. monocytogenes would be needed to maintain a constant incidence rate from 2010 to 2020 (current trend), assuming infectivity (strain virulence distribution and individual susceptibility) is unchanged. To reduce the overall US population incidence rate by one-third (Healthy People 2020 goal) would require a reduction in exposure (or infectivity) to L. monocytogenes of 48% over the same time period. Reduction/elimination in exposure of pregnant and Hispanic subpopulations alone could not meet this target. This information may be useful in setting public health targets, developing risk management options, and in interpreting trends in the public health burden of foodborne listeriosis in the United States.

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Pecans in the United States

A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and in-shell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk.

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Almonds in the United States: The Impact of Preventive Treatment Levels

The presence of Salmonella on almonds continues to result in product-related outbreaks and recalls in the United States. In this study, the impact of microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) on the risk of human salmonellosis from the consumption of almond kernels in the United States was evaluated. An exposure model, including major steps in almond processing, was used to estimate prevalence and levels of contamination of Salmonella on almonds at the point of consumption. A Salmonella dose-response model and consumption data for almonds in the United States were used to assess risk of illness per serving and per year, quantifying variability and uncertainty separately. A 3-log reduction treatment resulted in a predicted mean risk of illness of two cases per year for almonds consumed as a core product not cooked at home (95% confidence interval [CI], one to four cases), one case per year for almonds consumed as an ingredient not cooked at home (95% CI, one to two cases), and less than one case per year for almonds consumed as an ingredient cooked at home (95% CI, 7 × 10-7 to 3 × 10-6 cases). A minimum 4-log reduction treatment resulted in an estimated mean risk of illness below one case per year in the United States. This study also includes an assessment of the risk of human salmonellosis as a result of an exceptional situation, which results in higher risk estimates compared with the baseline model. The exceptional situations modeled posttreatment resulted in estimates of mean risk that were not significantly affected by treatment level. Sensitivity analysis results showed initial Salmonella contamination level to be the factor with the most impact on risk per serving estimates, given a certain treatment level. The risk assessment also includes a simulation of the events that occurred in 2001. Treatment levels with a minimum 4-log microbial reduction would have been sufficient to prevent the outbreak cases. The uncertainty range in the estimates indicates that additional information is needed to make more precise predictions of this specific outbreak event.

Prevalence of Salmonella in Cashews, Hazelnuts, Macadamia Nuts, Pecans, Pine Nuts, and Walnuts in the United States

Nuts have been identified as a vector for salmonellosis. The objective of this project was to estimate the prevalence and contamination level of Salmonella in raw tree nuts (cashews, pecans, hazelnuts, macadamia nuts, pine nuts, and walnuts) at retail markets in the United States. A total of 3,656 samples of six types of tree nuts were collected from different types of retail stores and markets nationwide between October 2014 and October 2015. These samples were analyzed using a modified version of the Salmonella culture method from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Bacteriological Analytical Manual. Of the 3,656 samples collected and tested, 32 were culturally confirmed as containing Salmonella. These isolates represented 25 serotypes. Salmonella was not detected in pecans and in-shell hazelnuts. Salmonella prevalence estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) in cashews, shelled hazelnuts, pine nuts, walnuts, and macadamia nuts were 0.55% [0.15, 1.40], 0.35% [0.04, 1.20], 0.48% [0.10, 1.40], 1.20% [0.53, 2.40], and 4.20% [2.40, 6.90], respectively. The rates of Salmonella isolation from major or big chain supermarkets, small chain supermarkets, discount, variety, or drug stores, and online were 0.64% [0.38, 1.00], 1.60% [0.80, 2.90], 0.00% [0.00, 2.40], and 13.64% [2.90, 35.00], respectively (Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test: P = 0.02). The rates of Salmonella isolation for conventional and organic nuts were not significantly different. Of the samples containing Salmonella, 60.7% had levels less than 0.003 most probable number (MPN)/g. The highest contamination level observed was 0.092 MPN/g. The prevalence and levels of Salmonella in these tree nut samples were comparable to those previously reported for similar foods.

Distribution of Animal Drugs among Curd, Whey, and Milk Protein Fractions in Spiked Skim Milk and Whey

It is important to understand the partitioning of drugs in processed milk and milk products, when drugs are present in raw milk, in order to estimate the potential consumer exposure. Radioisotopically labeled erythromycin, ivermectin, ketoprofen, oxytetracycline, penicillin G, sulfadimethoxine, and thiabendazole were used to evaluate the distribution of animal drugs among rennet curd, whey, and protein fractions from skim cow milk. Our previous work reported the distribution of these same drugs between skim and fat fractions of milk. Drug distribution between curd and whey was significantly correlated (R² = 0.70) to the drug's lipophilicity (log P), with improved correlation using log D (R² = 0.95). Distribution of drugs was concentration independent over the range tested (20-2000 nM). With the exception of thiabendazole and ivermectin, more drug was associated with whey protein than casein on a nmol/g protein basis (oxytetracycline experiment not performed). These results provide insights into the distribution of animal drug residues, if present in cow milk, among milk fractions, with possible extrapolation to milk products.

Comparative evaluation of direct plating and most probable number for enumeration of low levels of Listeria monocytogenes in naturally contaminated ice cream products

A precise and accurate method for enumeration of low level of Listeria monocytogenes in foods is critical to a variety of studies. In this study, paired comparison of most probable number (MPN) and direct plating enumeration of L. monocytogenes was conducted on a total of 1730 outbreak-associated ice cream samples that were naturally contaminated with low level of L. monocytogenes. MPN was performed on all 1730 samples. Direct plating was performed on all samples using the RAPID'L.mono (RLM) agar (1600 samples) and agar Listeria Ottaviani and Agosti (ALOA; 130 samples). Probabilistic analysis with Bayesian inference model was used to compare paired direct plating and MPN estimates of L. monocytogenes in ice cream samples because assumptions implicit in ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression analyses were not met for such a comparison. The probabilistic analysis revealed good agreement between the MPN and direct plating estimates, and this agreement showed that the MPN schemes and direct plating schemes using ALOA or RLM evaluated in the present study were suitable for enumerating low levels of L. monocytogenes in these ice cream samples. The statistical analysis further revealed that OLS linear regression analyses of direct plating and MPN data did introduce bias that incorrectly characterized systematic differences between estimates from the two methods.

Distribution of Animal Drugs between Skim Milk and Milk Fat Fractions in Spiked Whole Milk: Understanding the Potential Impact on Commercial Milk Products

Seven animal drugs [penicillin G (PENG), sulfadimethoxine (SDMX), oxytetracycline (OTET), erythromycin (ERY), ketoprofen (KETO), thiabendazole (THIA), and ivermectin (IVR)] were used to evaluate the drug distribution between milk fat and skim milk fractions of cow milk. More than 90% of the radioactivity was distributed into the skim milk fraction for ERY, KETO, OTET, PENG, and SDMX, approximately 80% for THIA, and 13% for IVR. The distribution of drug between milk fat and skim milk fractions was significantly correlated to the drug's lipophilicity (partition coefficient, log P, or distribution coefficient, log D, which includes ionization). Data were fit with linear mixed effects models; the best fit was obtained within this data set with log D versus observed drug distribution ratios. These candidate empirical models serve for assisting to predict the distribution and concentration of these drugs in a variety of milk and milk products.

Electron affinity of trans-2-C4F8 from electron attachment-detachment kinetics

Electron attachment and detachment kinetics of 2-C(4)F(8) were studied over the temperature range 298-487 K with a flowing-afterglow Langmuir-probe apparatus. Only parent anions were formed in the attachment process throughout this temperature range. At the highest temperatures, thermal electron detachment of the parent anions is important. Analysis of the 2-C(4)F(8) gas showed an 82/18 mixture of trans/cis isomers. The kinetic data at the higher temperatures were used to determine the electron affinity EA(trans-2-C(4)F(8)) = 0.79 +/- 0.06 eV after making some reasonable assumptions. The same quantity was calculated using the G3(MP2) compound method, yielding 0.74 eV. The kinetic data were not sufficient to establish a reliable value for EA(cis-2-C(4)F(8)), but G3(MP2) calculations give a value 0.017 eV greater than that for trans-2-C(4)F(8). MP2 and density functional theory were used to study the structural properties of the neutral and anion isomers.

Observation of dihalide elimination upon electron attachment to oxalyl chloride and oxalyl bromide, 300-550 K

Rate coefficients have been measured for electron attachment to oxalyl chloride [ClC(O)C(O)Cl] and oxalyl bromide [BrC(O)C(O)Br] in He gas at 133 Pa pressure over the temperature range of 300-550 K. With oxalyl chloride, the major ion product of attachment is Cl2(-) at all temperatures (66% at 300 K); its importance increases slightly as temperature increases. Two other product ions formed are Cl- (18% at 300 K) and the phosgene anion CCl2O- (16% at 300 K) and appear to arise from a common mechanism. With oxalyl bromide, the Br2(-) channel represents almost half of the ion product of attachment, independent of temperature. Br- accounts for the remainder. For oxalyl chloride, the attachment rate coefficient is small [(1.8 +/- 0.5) x 10(-8) cm3 s(-1) at 300 K], and increases with temperature. The attachment rate coefficient for oxalyl bromide [(1.3 +/- 0.4) x 10(-7) cm3 s(-1) at 300 K] is nearly collisional and increases only slightly with temperature. Stable parent anions C2Cl2O2(-) and C2Br2O2(-) and adduct anions Cl- (C2Cl2O2) and Br- (C2Br3O2) were observed but are not primary attachment products. G2 and G3 theories were applied to determine geometries of products and energetics of the electron attachment and ion-molecule reactions studied. Electron attachment to both oxalyl halide molecules leads to a shorter C-C bond and longer C-Cl bond in the anions formed. Trans and gauche conformers of the neutral and anionic oxalyl halide species have similar energies and are more stable than the cis conformer, which lies 100-200 meV higher in energy. For C2Cl2O2, C2Cl2O2(-), and C2Br2O2(-), the trans conformer is the most stable conformation. The calculations are ambiguous as to the oxalyl bromide geometry (trans or gauche), the result depending on the theoretical method and basis set. The cis conformers for C2Cl2O2 and C2Br2O2 are transition states. In contrast, the cis conformers of the anionic oxalyl halide molecules are stable, lying 131 meV above trans-C2Cl2O2(-) and 179 meV above trans-C2Br2O2(-). Chien et al. [J. Phys. Chem. A 103, 7918 (1999)] and Kim et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 122, 234313 (2005)] found that the potential energy surface for rotation about the C-C bond in C2Cl2O2 is "extremely flat." Our computational data indicate that the analogous torsional surfaces for C2Br2O2, C2Cl2O2(-), and C2Br2O2(-) are similarly flat. The electron affinity of oxalyl chloride, oxalyl bromide, and phosgene were calculated to be 1.91 eV (G3), and 2.00 eV (G2), and 1.17 eV (G3), respectively.

Electron attachment to POCl3: Measurement and theoretical analysis of rate constants and branching ratios as a function of gas pressure and temperature, electron temperature, and electron energy

Two experimental techniques, electron swarm and electron beam, have been applied to the problem of electron attachment to POCl3, with results indicating that there is a competition between dissociation of the resonant POCl3-* state and collisional stabilization of the parent anion. In the electron beam experiment at zero electron energy, the fragment ion POCl2- is the dominant ion product of attachment (96%), under single-collision conditions. Small amounts (approximately 2% each) of POCl3- and Cl- were observed. POCl3- and POCl2- ion products were observed only at zero electron energy, but higher-energy resonances were recorded for POCl-, Cl-, and Cl2- ion products. In the electron swarm experiment, which was carried out in 0.4-7 Torr of He buffer gas, the parent anion branching ratio increased significantly with pressure and decreased with temperature. The electron attachment rate constant at 297 K was measured to be (2.5+/-0.6)x10(-7) cm3 s(-1), with ion products POCl2- (71%) and POCl3- (29%) in 1 Torr of He gas. The rate constant decreased as the electron temperature was increased above 1500 K. Theory is developed for (a) the unimolecular dissociation of the nascent POCl3-* and (b) a stepladder collisional stabilization mechanism using the average energy transferred per collision as a parameter. These ideas were then used to model the experimental data. The modeling showed that D0 o(Cl-POCl2-) and EA(POCl3) must be the same within +/-0.03 eV.

Electron attachment and detachment, and the electron affinities of C5F5N and C5HF4N

Rate constants have been measured for electron attachment to C5F5N (297-433 K) and to 2, 3, 5, 6-C5HF4N (303 K) using a flowing-afterglow Langmuir-probe apparatus (at a He gas pressure of 133 Pa). In both cases only the parent anion was formed in the attachment process. The attachment rate constants measured at room temperature are 1.8 +/- 0.5 X 10(-7) and 7 +/- 3 X 10(-10) cm(-3) s(-1), respectively. Rate constants were also measured for thermal electron detachment from the parent anions of these molecules. For C5F5N- detachment is negligible at room temperature, but increases to 2530 +/- 890 s(-1) at 433 K. For 2, 3, 5, 6-C5HF4N-, the detachment rate at 303 K was 520 +/- 180 s(-1). The attachment/detachment equilibrium yielded experimental electron affinities EA(C5F5N)=0.70 +/- 0.05 eV and EA(2, 3, 5, 6-C5HF4N)=0.40 +/- 0.08 eV. Electronic structure calculations were carried out for these molecules and related C5HxF5-xN using density-functional theory and the G3(MP2)//B3LYP compound method. The EAs are found to decrease by 0.25 eV, on average, with each F substitution by H. The calculated EAs are in good agreement with the present experimental results.

Electron attachment and detachment: Electron affinities of isomers of trifluoromethylbenzonitrile

Rate constants for electron attachment to the three isomers of trifluoromethylbenzonitrile [(CF(3))(CN)C(6)H(4), or TFMBN] were measured over the temperature range of 303-463 K in a 133-Pa He buffer gas, using a flowing-afterglow Langmuir-probe apparatus. At 303 K, the measured attachment rate constants are 9.0 x 10(-8) (o-TFMBN), 5.5 x 10(-8) (m-TFMBN), and 8.9 x 10(-8) cm(3) s(-1) (p-TFMBN), estimated accurate to +/-25%. The attachment process formed only the parent anion in all three cases. Thermal electron detachment was observed for all three anion isomers, and rate constants for this reverse process were also measured. From the attachment and detachment results, the electron affinities of the three isomers of TFMBN were determined to be 0.70(o-TFMBN), 0.67(m-TFMBN), and 0.83 eV (p-TFMBN), all +/-0.05 eV. G3(MP2) [Gaussian-3 calculations with reduced Møller-Plesset orders (MP2)] calculations were carried out for the neutrals and anions. Electron affinities derived from these calculations are in good agreement with the experimental values.

Direct measurement of the thermal rate coefficient for electron attachment to ozone in the gas phase, 300-550 K: implications for the ionosphere

Attachment of thermal electrons to O3 was studied in 133 Pa He between 300-550 K; the process is extremely inefficient. The rate coefficient increases sharply with temperature from 0.9 to 5 x 10(-11) cm(3) s(-1) (+/-30%) and comparison to kinetic energy measurements suggests internal energy can drive the reaction. These determinations account for competing processes of diffusion, recombination, and electron detachment reactions, and imply that no significant zero-energy resonance cross section exists, contradicting recent electron-beam results that call for substantial revision of ionospheric models.