Can Science Help Resolve the Controversy on the Origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic?

The harms of promoting the lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 origins without evidence

Science is humanity's best insurance against threats from nature, but it is a fragile enterprise that must be nourished and protected. The preponderance of scientific evidence indicates a natural origin for SARS-CoV-2. Yet, the theory that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in and escaped from a lab dominates media attention, even in the absence of strong evidence. We discuss how the resulting anti-science movement puts the research community, scientific research, and pandemic preparedness at risk.

A Critical Analysis of the Evidence for the SARS-CoV-2 Origin Hypotheses

When humans experience a new, devastating viral infection such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), significant challenges arise. How should individuals as well as societies respond to the situation? One of the primary questions concerns the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that infected and was transmitted efficiently among humans, resulting in a pandemic. At first glance, the question appears straightforward to answer. However, the origin of SARS-CoV-2 has been the topic of substantial debate primarily because we do not have access to some relevant data. At least two major hypotheses have been suggested: a natural origin through zoonosis followed by sustained human-to-human spread or the introduction of a natural virus into humans from a laboratory source. Here, we summarize the scientific evidence that informs this debate to provide our fellow scientists and the public with the tools to join the discussion in a constructive and informed manner. Our goal is to dissect the evidence to make it more accessible to those interested in this important problem. The engagement of a broad representation of scientists is critical to ensure that the public and policy-makers can draw on relevant expertise in navigating this controversy.

Virology under the Microscope-a Call for Rational Discourse

Viruses have brought humanity many challenges: respiratory infection, cancer, neurological impairment and immunosuppression to name a few. Virology research over the last 60+ years has responded to reduce this disease burden with vaccines and antivirals. Despite this long history, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented attention to the field of virology. Some of this attention is focused on concern about the safe conduct of research with human pathogens. A small but vocal group of individuals has seized upon these concerns - conflating legitimate questions about safely conducting virus-related research with uncertainties over the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The result has fueled public confusion and, in many instances, ill-informed condemnation of virology. With this article, we seek to promote a return to rational discourse. We explain the use of gain-of-function approaches in science, discuss the possible origins of SARS-CoV-2 and outline current regulatory structures that provide oversight for virological research in the United States. By offering our expertise, we - a broad group of working virologists - seek to aid policy makers in navigating these controversial issues. Balanced, evidence-based discourse is essential to addressing public concern while maintaining and expanding much-needed research in virology.

Virology under the Microscope-a Call for Rational Discourse

Viruses have brought humanity many challenges: respiratory infection, cancer, neurological impairment and immunosuppression to name a few. Virology research over the last 60+ years has responded to reduce this disease burden with vaccines and antivirals. Despite this long history, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented attention to the field of virology. Some of this attention is focused on concern about the safe conduct of research with human pathogens. A small but vocal group of individuals has seized upon these concerns - conflating legitimate questions about safely conducting virus-related research with uncertainties over the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The result has fueled public confusion and, in many instances, ill-informed condemnation of virology. With this article, we seek to promote a return to rational discourse. We explain the use of gain-of-function approaches in science, discuss the possible origins of SARS-CoV-2 and outline current regulatory structures that provide oversight for virological research in the United States. By offering our expertise, we - a broad group of working virologists - seek to aid policy makers in navigating these controversial issues. Balanced, evidence-based discourse is essential to addressing public concern while maintaining and expanding much-needed research in virology.

Virology under the Microscope-a Call for Rational Discourse

Viruses have brought humanity many challenges: respiratory infection, cancer, neurological impairment and immunosuppression to name a few. Virology research over the last 60+ years has responded to reduce this disease burden with vaccines and antivirals. Despite this long history, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented attention to the field of virology. Some of this attention is focused on concern about the safe conduct of research with human pathogens. A small but vocal group of individuals has seized upon these concerns - conflating legitimate questions about safely conducting virus-related research with uncertainties over the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The result has fueled public confusion and, in many instances, ill-informed condemnation of virology. With this article, we seek to promote a return to rational discourse. We explain the use of gain-of-function approaches in science, discuss the possible origins of SARS-CoV-2 and outline current regulatory structures that provide oversight for virological research in the United States. By offering our expertise, we - a broad group of working virologists - seek to aid policy makers in navigating these controversial issues. Balanced, evidence-based discourse is essential to addressing public concern while maintaining and expanding much-needed research in virology.

Meta-analysis to explain unknown causes of the origins of SARS-COV-2

New Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious illness that has generated a pandemic crisis worldwide. One of the fundamental questions in science and society is how SARS-CoV-2 has been originated to design best practices directed to prevent and/or to cope with future hazardous pathogens. The study confronts this question here developing a meta-analysis, which endeavors to explain, whenever possible, unknown sources of the SARS-CoV-2. Findings suggest that the natural spillover of novel viral agents that generate more than 6.00 M deaths worldwide in about two years (such as, SARS-CoV-2 from February 2020 to March 2022) has a remote probability of occurrence (using an analogy with the probability of natural disasters generating a lot of fatalities), whereas science advances on hazardous viral agents and consequential lab accident have a (higher) probability of occurrence (about 13-20% like in manifold lab accidents). The findings of this meta-analysis suggest the vital role of improving the technical guidelines of biosafety at all levels in laboratories during the development of scientific research of experimental virology on hazardous pathogens to minimize risks of pandemic threats in environment and human society.

Appearance and re-appearance of zoonotic disease during the pandemic period: Long-term monitoring and analysis of zoonosis is crucial to confirm the animal origin of SARS-CoV-2 and monkeypox virus

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, along with the SARS-CoV-2 infection, another zoonotic origin virus emerged: monkeypox virus. Researchers are trying to screen the wild animals to pinpoint the exact origin of these viruses in both cases. For SARS-CoV-2, scientists who were studying the zoonotic transfer of the virus are currently divided along four distinct lines: the first group suspects the pangolin as the source of the SARS-CoV-2 virus; the second one is the bat origin of the virus; the third group includes both the pangolins and bat, and fourth group informed about the origin of several other animals. Similarly, scientists have noted significant host ranges of the virus for the monkeypox virus, such as monkeys, chimpanzees, rodents, prairie dogs, etc. Therefore, we should understand some essential points of the zoonosis of these two important viruses, such as animal origin, natural reservoir, intermediate hosts, virus spillover events (spillover time, and frequency of infecting the one host to another or reservoir to human), etc. We appeal for long-term monitoring through the teamwork of scientists involving the fields of wildlife biology, veterinary medicine,molecular biology, virology, health science, and computational biology. It is essential to create an integrated multi-national scientific task force with adequate funding from all countries originating in the regions of these two viruses. It could explore the mechanisms involving not only the SARS-CoV-2 and monkeypox virus origin, host range, and all spillover events of these viruses but also the future outbreak of wildlife-based epidemics.

Capturing a Crucial ‘Disorder-to-Order Transition’ at the Heart of the Coronavirus Molecular Pathology—Triggered by Highly Persistent, Interchangeable Salt-Bridges

The COVID-19 origin debate has greatly been influenced by genome comparison studies of late, revealing the emergence of the Furin-like cleavage site at the S1/S2 junction of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (FLCSSpike) containing its 681PRRAR685 motif, absent in other related respiratory viruses. Being the rate-limiting (i.e., the slowest) step, the host Furin cleavage is instrumental in the abrupt increase in transmissibility in COVID-19, compared to earlier onsets of respiratory viral diseases. In such a context, the current paper entraps a ‘disorder-to-order transition’ of the FLCSSpike (concomitant to an entropy arrest) upon binding to Furin. The interaction clearly seems to be optimized for a more efficient proteolytic cleavage in SARS-CoV-2. The study further shows the formation of dynamically interchangeable and persistent networks of salt-bridges at the Spike–Furin interface in SARS-CoV-2 involving the three arginines (R682, R683, R685) of the FLCSSpike with several anionic residues (E230, E236, D259, D264, D306) coming from Furin, strategically distributed around its catalytic triad. Multiplicity and structural degeneracy of plausible salt-bridge network archetypes seem to be the other key characteristic features of the Spike–Furin binding in SARS-CoV-2, allowing the system to breathe—a trademark of protein disorder transitions. Interestingly, with respect to the homologous interaction in SARS-CoV (2002/2003) taken as a baseline, the Spike–Furin binding events, generally, in the coronavirus lineage, seems to have preference for ionic bond formation, even with a lesser number of cationic residues at their potentially polybasic FLCSSpike patches. The interaction energies are suggestive of characteristic metastabilities attributed to Spike–Furin interactions, generally to the coronavirus lineage, which appears to be favorable for proteolytic cleavages targeted at flexible protein loops. The current findings not only offer novel mechanistic insights into the coronavirus molecular pathology and evolution, but also add substantially to the existing theories of proteolytic cleavages.

Cross-sectional genomic perspective of epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2: A pan India study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has posed unforeseen circumstances and throttled major economies worldwide. India has witnessed two waves affecting around 31 million people representing 16% of the cases globally. To date, the epidemic waves have not been comprehensively investigated to understand pandemic progress in India.

OBJECTIVE

Here, we aim for pan Indian cross-sectional evolutionary analysis since inception of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

High quality genomes, along with their collection date till 26th July 2021, were downloaded. Whole genome-based phylogeny was obtained. Further, the mutational analysis was performed using SARS-CoV-2 first reported from Wuhan (NC_045512.2) as reference.

RESULTS

Based on reported cases and mutation rates, we could divide the Indian epidemic into seven phases. The average mutation rate for the pre-first wave was <11, which elevated to 17 in the first wave and doubled in the second wave (∼34). In accordance with mutation rate, VOCs and VOIs started appearing in the first wave (1.5%), which dominated the second (∼96%) and post-second wave (100%). Nation-wide mutational analysis depicted >0.5 million mutation events with four major mutations in >19,300 genomes, including two mutations in coding (spike (D614G), and NSP 12b (P314L) of rdrp), one silent mutation (NSP3 F106F) and one extragenic mutation (5' UTR 241).

CONCLUSION

Whole genome-based phylogeny could demarcate post-first wave isolates from previous ones by point of diversification leading to incidences of VOCs and VOIs in India. Such analysis is crucial in the timely management of pandemic.