Scoring system to improve cost effectiveness of open access endoscopy

Open access upper gastrointestinal endoscopy: a 2-year experience from 2001 to 2003

BACKGROUND

The role of open access endoscopy in detecting serious diseases like malignancy and peptic ulcers is debated. We participated in an open access endoscopy service and this study details our experience.

METHODS

The Cancer Society of Kashmir provided an open access upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy service in Kashmir between 2001 and 2003. The records of patients who underwent endoscopy were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 1,000 endoscopies were performed over a two-year period (average >40 endoscopies per month). Two-thirds of endoscopies were normal. Gastric (n = 30) and esophageal (n = 42) tumors were seen in 7.2 % of patients. The other common abnormality detected was peptic ulcer. No complications were reported during or immediately after the procedure.

CONCLUSION

Open access upper GI endoscopy is a viable service option that can become more widely available.

WITHDRAWN: Initial management strategies for dyspepsia

BACKGROUND

This review considers management strategies (combinations of initial investigation and empirical treatments) for dyspeptic patients. Dyspepsia was defined to include both epigastric pain and heartburn.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effectiveness, acceptability, and cost effectiveness of the following initial management strategies for patients presenting with dyspepsia (a) Initial pharmacological therapy (including endoscopy for treatment failures). (b) Early endoscopy. (c) Testing for Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori )and endoscope only those positive. (d) H. pylori eradication therapy with or without prior testing.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Trials were located through electronic searches and extensive contact with trialists.

SELECTION CRITERIA

All randomised controlled trials of dyspeptic patients presenting in primary care.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Data were collected on dyspeptic symptoms, quality of life and use of resources. An individual patient data meta-analysis of health economic data was conducted

MAIN RESULTS

Twenty-five papers reporting 27 comparisons were found. Trials comparing proton pump inhibitors (PPI) with antacids (three trials) and histamine H2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) (three trials), early endoscopy with initial acid suppression (five trials), H. pylori test and endoscope versus usual management (three trials), H. pylori test and treat versus endoscopy (six trials), and test and treat versus acid suppression alone in H. pylori positive patients (four trials), were pooled. PPIs were significantly more effective than both H2RAs and antacids. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were; for PPI compared with antacid 0.72 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.80), PPI compared with H2RA 0.63 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.85). Results for other drug comparisons were either absent or inconclusive. Initial endoscopy was associated with a small reduction in the risk of recurrent dyspeptic symptoms compared with H. pylori test and treat (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.96), but was not cost effective (mean additional cost of endoscopy US$401 (95% CI $328 to 474). Test and treat may be more effective than acid suppression alone (RR 0.59 95% CI 0.42 to 0.83).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Proton pump inhibitor drugs (PPIs) are effective in the treatment of dyspepsia in these trials which may not adequately exclude patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). The relative efficacy of histamine H2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) and PPIs is uncertain. Early investigation by endoscopy or H. pylori testing may benefit some patients with dyspepsia but is not cost effective as part of an overall management strategy.

Limited value of alarm features in the diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal malignancy: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alarm features such as dysphagia, weight loss, or anemia raise concern of an upper gastrointestinal malignancy in patients with dyspepsia. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of alarm features in predicting malignancy by performing a metaanalysis based on the published literature.

METHODS

English-language studies were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, and CINAHL. Cohort studies that measured alarm features and compared them with the endoscopic findings were included. Studies were screened for inclusion by 2 authors who independently extracted the data. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were calculated by comparing the alarm feature with the endoscopic diagnosis. The summary receiver operating characteristic curve method was used to summarize test characteristics across studies. Individual alarm features were also assessed when the study report permitted.

RESULTS

Eighty-three of 2600 studies met the initial screening criteria; 15 met inclusion criteria after detailed review. These 15 studies evaluated a total of 57,363 patients, of whom 458 (.8%) had cancer. The sensitivity of alarm symptoms varied from 0% to 83% with considerable heterogeneity between studies. The specificity also varied significantly from 40% to 98%. A clinical diagnosis made by a physician was very specific (range, 97%-98%) but not very sensitive (range, 11%-53%).

CONCLUSIONS

Alarm features have limited predictive value for an underlying malignancy. Their use in dyspepsia management strategies needs further refinement and study.

Initial management strategies for dyspepsia

BACKGROUND

This review considers management strategies (combinations of initial investigation and empirical treatments) for dyspeptic patients. Dyspepsia was defined to include both epigastric pain and heartburn.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effectiveness, acceptability, and cost effectiveness of the following initial management strategies for patients presenting with dyspepsia: (a) Initial pharmacological therapy (including endoscopy for treatment failures). (b) Early endoscopy. (c) Testing for Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori )and endoscope only those positive. (d) H. pylori eradication therapy with or without prior testing.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Trials were located through electronic searches and extensive contact with trialists.

SELECTION CRITERIA

All randomised controlled trials of dyspeptic patients presenting in primary care.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Data were collected on dyspeptic symptoms, quality of life and use of resources. An individual patient data meta-analysis of health economic data was conducted

MAIN RESULTS

Twenty-five papers reporting 27 comparisons were found. Trials comparing proton pump inhibitors (PPI) with antacids (three trials) and histamine H2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) (three trials), early endoscopy with initial acid suppression (five trials), H. pylori test and endoscope versus usual management (three trials), H. pylori test and treat versus endoscopy (six trials), and test and treat versus acid suppression alone in H. pylori positive patients (four trials), were pooled. PPIs were significantly more effective than both H2RAs and antacids. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were; for PPI compared with antacid 0.72 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.80), PPI compared with H2RA 0.63 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.85). Results for other drug comparisons were either absent or inconclusive. Initial endoscopy was associated with a small reduction in the risk of recurrent dyspeptic symptoms compared with H. pylori test and treat (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.96), but was not cost effective (mean additional cost of endoscopy US$401 (95% CI $328 to 474). Test and treat may be more effective than acid suppression alone (RR 0.59 95% CI 0.42 to 0.83).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Proton pump inhibitor drugs (PPIs) are effective in the treatment of dyspepsia in these trials which may not adequately exclude patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). The relative efficacy of histamine H2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) and PPIs is uncertain. Early investigation by endoscopy or H. pylori testing may benefit some patients with dyspepsia but is not cost effective as part of an overall management strategy.

[Prospective validation of a clinical scoring system for the diagnosis of organic dyspepsia]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Predictive symptomatic scoring models have been proposed to select patients with dyspepsia, who may be candidates to endoscopy. In a previous study performed by gastroentrologists from our group, we obtained three scales of symptoms to predict organic dyspepsia, peptic ulcer and esophagitis, respectively. Here we analyze the reproducibility of those scoring models of symptoms when used either by other gastroenterologists or general practitioners.

PATIENTS AND METHOD

It was a clinical prospective study of 230 patients from the Viladecans hospital area (120 from primary healthcare and 110 from the gastroenterologist's consultation). The three validation scales were performed in each patient. Then, we performed a diagnostic gastroscopy which allowed to classify patients into those with organic dyspepsia (ulcer, esophagitis, cancer) or those with functional dyspepsia. We calculated the overall predictive accuracy for the gastroenterologist and the general practitioner and for the three diagnoses (organic dyspepsia, ulcer or esophagitis) using the C statistic.

RESULTS

Discriminative capacities were 0.75 and 0.82 for organic dyspepsia, 0.78 and 0.86 for ulcer disease, and 0.78 and 0.82 for esophagitis, for the general practitioner and the gastroenterologist, respectively. In this validation study, the best cut-off value, namely the one combining good sensitivity and specificity, was found to be 7.

CONCLUSIONS

A correct predictive capacity of the symptomatic score models when used by other gastroenterologists or by primary healthcare practioners confirms its reproducibility and transferability. The use of predictive symptomatic score models in everyday clinical practice can allow to rationalize the referral for endoscopy in our local setting.

Accuracy of provisional diagnoses of dyspepsia in patients undergoing first endoscopy

BACKGROUND

This study assessed agreement between provisional and endoscopic diagnoses for patients with dyspepsia undergoing initial endoscopy, and examined variation between clinicians at 2 hospitals.

METHODS

This was a retrospective review of 423 consecutive patients.

RESULTS

Crude percentage agreement ranged from 55% to 97%. Kappa scores revealed poor agreement: peptic ulcers (0.11: 95% CI [0.05, 0.17]); gastroesophageal reflux disease (0.29: 95% CI [0.20, 0.38]); benign esophageal stricture (0.33: 95% CI [0.08, 0.58]); and cancer (0.12: 95% CI [-0.12, 0.36]). Positive and negative predictive values for cancer and benign esophageal stricture showed that agreement for a negative diagnosis was almost perfect, whereas agreement for a positive diagnosis was low. Only 17% of patients with cancer were given an accurate provisional diagnosis. Accuracy of diagnosis did not vary substantially between hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

Crude percentage agreement is misleading. Emphasis should be placed on better prediction of cancer, benign esophageal stricture, and peptic ulcer disease. Accuracy of provisional diagnosis in everyday practice is no worse than that found in prospective studies in which clinicians knew a priori that diagnoses would be scrutinized. The difficulty of predicting diagnoses supports increased reliance on endoscopy.

Management of uninvestigated and functional dyspepsia: a Working Party report for the World Congresses of Gastroenterology 1998

BACKGROUND

The management of dyspepsia is controversial.

METHODS

An international Working Party was convened in 1998 to review management strategies for dyspepsia and functional dyspepsia, based on a review of the literature and best clinical practice.

RESULTS

Dyspepsia, defined as pain or discomfort centred in the upper abdomen, can be managed with reassurance and over-the-counter therapy if its duration is less than 4 weeks on initial presentation. For patients with chronic symptoms, clinical evaluation depends on alarm features including patient age. The age cut off selected should depend on the age specific incidence when gastric cancer begins to increase, but in Western nations 50 years is generally an acceptable age threshold. In younger patients without alarm features, Helicobacter pylori test and treatment is the approach recommended because of its value in eliminating the peptic ulcer disease diathesis. If, after eradication of H. pylori, symptoms either are not relieved or rapidly recur, then an empirical trial of therapy is recommended. Similarly, in H. pylori-negative patients without alarm features, an empirical trial (with antisecretory or prokinetic therapy depending on the predominant symptom) for up to 8 weeks is recommended. If drugs fail, endoscopy should be considered because of its reassurance value although the yield will be low. In older patients or those with alarm features, prompt endoscopy is recommended. If endoscopy is non-diagnostic, gastric biopsies are recommended to document H. pylori status unless already known. While treatment of H. pylori is unlikely to relieve the symptoms of functional dyspepsia, the long-term benefits probably outweigh the risks and treatment can be considered on a case-by-case basis. In H. pylori-negative patients with documented functional dyspepsia, antisecretory or prokinetic therapy, depending on the predominant symptom, is reasonable, assuming reassurance and explanation are insufficient, unless patients have already failed this approach. Other treatment options include antidepressants, antispasmodics, visceral analgesics such as serotonin type 3 receptor antagonists, and behavioural or psychotherapy although these are all of uncertain efficacy. Long-term drug treatment in functional dyspepsia should be avoided; intermittent short courses of treatment as needed is preferred.

CONCLUSION

The management of dyspepsia recommended is based on current best evidence but must be tailored to local factors such as practice setting, the background prevalence of H. pylori and structural disease, and costs.

How should new-onset dyspepsia be managed in general and specialist practice?

Managing patients with new-onset dyspeptic symptoms represents a real challenge in clinical decision-making. The major controversy has been over the optimal management strategy of patients with new-onset dyspeptic symptoms who do not present with alarm symptoms. Since unaided clinical diagnosis is unreliable, proposed management strategies have included empirical treatment algorithms, computer-assisted predictive score models and Helicobacter pylori-based strategies such as test-and-scope or test-and-treat algorithms. Endoscopy remains the diagnostic 'gold standard', and the management should ideally be based on endoscopic diagnosis. Because of economic constraints and increasing waiting lists, this is not possible. When precise and comprehensive guidelines have been formulated, future patients will probably be managed in primary care by a Helicobacter test-and-treat policy, leaving only empirical treatment failures for specialist evaluation.

Managing dyspepsia: what do we know and what do we need to know?

OBJECTIVE

The conceptual revolution concerning the role of Helicobacter pylori in the pathogenesis of peptic ulcer disease has raised the larger question of how to integrate this new information into the management of patients with dyspepsia. The aim of this research was to critically evaluate current knowledge about dyspepsia and its management.

METHODS

Relevant articles on dyspepsia were identified from MEDLINE searches and from the bibliographies of identified articles. Studies that contained information on the prevalence of dyspepsia, endoscopic findings, and evaluations of alternative management strategies were reviewed.

RESULTS

By coupling H. pylori serological testing with clinical factors such as age and nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug use, strategies have been developed that identify patients with organic disease. Although the use of these strategies can reduce the volume of endoscopies, their effects on dyspepsia symptoms are unknown. Computerized decision analysis models have been used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies. The indirect evidence obtained from these models suggests that empiric therapy, guided by H. pylori testing, may be the preferred approach. However, the models have been hampered by the lack of information concerning dyspepsia symptoms, the primary health outcome of the majority of patients seen in primary practice settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently, the knowledge needed to integrate H. pylori tests and antimicrobial therapies into the management of patients with dyspepsia in primary practice settings has not been developed. A pressing need exists for a randomized controlled trial to evaluate alternative management strategies. In conducting such a trial, valid, reliable instruments for measuring dyspepsia will be needed.

Open access gastroscopy findings are unrelated to the use of aspirin and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs

This study aims to determine whether priority should be given to patients taking non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or aspirin when selecting which dyspeptic patients to refer for open access gastroscopy. A total of 8156 patients underwent gastroscopy, all of whom had upper gastrointestinal symptoms. Patients taking NSAIDs or aspirin showed no significant differences in the frequency of ulcer disease when age-matched groups were compared. Although NSAIDs and aspirin are frequently implicated in gastrointestinal bleeding in the elderly, patients referred for investigation of dyspepsia show no increase in major endoscopic pathology.

Management in general practice of patients with persistent dyspepsia. A decision analysis

To determine whether an empirical drug treatment strategy (empirical group) instead of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy followed by treatment (conventional group) in patients with persistent dyspepsia increases appropriate use of endoscopy facilities, we did a decision analysis based on data found in the literature. We estimated the percentage of patients having an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in 1 year, the percentage of patients with symptom relief, and the average medical costs per patient for both groups. In the empirical group, fewer patients (38%) had upper gastrointestinal endoscopies compared with the conventional group. Furthermore, an additional 5% of patients in the empirical group experienced symptom relief, and the average medical costs per patient were estimated to be 8% less in this group when compared with the patients in the conventional treatment group. The proposed empirical drug treatment strategy for patients with persistent dyspepsia results in the performance of fewer diagnostic upper gastrointestinal endoscopies per year with greater effectiveness compared with upper gastrointestinal endoscopy followed by treatment.

Predicting endoscopic diagnosis in the dyspeptic patient. The value of predictive score models

BACKGROUND

Score models to predict endoscopic diagnosis in dyspepsia may compensate for the unreliable clinical diagnosis. This study aimed to construct and test score models designed to predict diagnosis in dyspepstic patients managed in primary care.

METHODS

Three models to predict organic dyspepsia, major dyspepsia, or peptic ulcer were constructed by regression analysis of clinical data from 1026 consecutive dyspeptic patients referred for endoscopy. The models were tested in 207 patients in primary care, who were potential candidates for endoscopy. Validation experiments were analysed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

Significant losses of predictive power were found for all models when applied to primary care patients, and no model could be used as a reliable decision support instrument in primary care.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive score models developed in patients referred for endoscopy are not reliable when applied to patients in primary care who are potential candidates for endoscopy. Future models should be constructed and validated in unselected primary care populations.

Developing a condition-specific measure of health for patients with dyspepsia and ulcer-related symptoms

A patient-administered instrument for dyspepsia and symptoms suggestive of duodenal or gastric ulcer, based on the type of questions asked when taking a patient's history, was developed and tested using the following steps: literature reviews, devising the questions, testing the responses to the questions using factor analysis and internal consistency, assessing test-retest reliability, and validating the questionnaire by comparing patient responses to the SF-36 health survey questionnaire. The main sample consisted of 135 patients referred to an outpatient clinic with dyspepsia, and 152 patients in general practice who were not referred to a specialist. The final instrument produced a Cronbach's alpha of 0.72 and an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.69. Patient scores on the dyspepsia questionnaire had small to moderate correlations with the SF-36 health survey, the largest correlation being with the SF-36 scale of pain. Patient scores were significantly related to general practitioner perceptions of symptom severity, family history of gastric ulcer disease, and whether the patient was referred. The questions asked in taking a clinical history from a patient with dyspepsia and other symptoms suggestive of ulcer disease can be used to construct a valid and reliable measure of the effect of dyspepsia on health.

Role of Helicobacter pylori in gastrointestinal disease: implications for primary care of a revolution in management of dyspepsia

The majority of patients with dyspepsia are managed in general practice. However, most of the literature on Helicobacter pylori and its association with gastrointestinal disease has originated from secondary care. This review summarizes the role of H pylori in dyspepsia from the perspective of primary care and suggests a new strategy for the management of dyspeptic patients in this setting. Recent meta-analyses and consensus statements have supported the use of eradication therapy as first-line treatment of peptic ulceration. Studies from primary care have supported the use of eradication therapy in patients who have H pylori related peptic ulcer disease and require long-term H2-antagonist medication, on both clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness grounds. Of the many regimens proposed for the eradication of H pylori, the best evidence supports a triple combination of bismuth, metronidazole and tetracycline. Regimens using proton pump inhibitors may be more acceptable to patients but lack good evidence from trials. Use of a positive serum enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay for H pylori antibodies as a criterion for endoscopic investigation has been shown to result in a 23% reduction in endoscopic workload. Further research should answer questions of importance to general practitioners, such as the role of eradication therapy in patients with nonulcer dyspepsia and the effectiveness of eradication of H pylori in the prevention of gastric cancer.

What happens to patients following open access gastroscopy? An outcome study from general practice

BACKGROUND

Open access gastroscopy allows general practitioners to request a gastroscopy without prior referral to a specialist. The effect of open access gastroscopy upon patient management is poorly explored. Most studies have been hospital based and have focused on diagnostic yields and on means of tightening requests to reduce inefficient use. A user evaluation can only be made by measuring outcomes in primary care.

AIM

A study was undertaken to determine the impact of open access gastroscopy in general practice and in particular, the value of a normal result.

METHOD

All general practices in South Tees District Health Authority were asked to participate. Any of their patients who had had open access gastroscopy in the year prior to July 1990 were identified from the hospital computer and their general practitioner notes examined. Patient management during the year prior to the open access gastroscopy was compared with the year after. The main outcome measures were: detection rate and grade of lesion, change in graded score of prescribed drugs, consultation rate for dyspepsia and non-dyspepsia problems, and further hospital referral and investigations. Outcomes among those with normal and abnormal gastroscopy results were compared.

RESULTS

The study sample comprised 715 patients, 36% of whom had a normal gastroscopy result, 34% a major abnormality and 26% a minor abnormality (4% of patients had miscellaneous diagnoses). It was found that 39% of all patients, and 60% of those with normal findings on open access gastroscopy had their drug treatment stopped or reduced in grade after the investigation. Of those with a major endoscopic abnormality 58% increased their treatment score. Consultations for dyspepsia in the year before and after gastroscopy fell by 57% overall among those with a normal gastroscopy result, by 37% among those with a minor finding and by 33% in those with a major finding. There was a 21% fall in consultations for all reasons among those with a normal gastroscopy result but those with a minor abnormality had a 23% increase in non-dyspepsia consultations. Of all patients 19% were referred to hospital subsequently.

CONCLUSION

Open access gastroscopy has a major effect upon patient management in general practice, and a normal endoscopy result has an important an impact as an abnormal one. Open access gastroscopy is associated with a rationalization of drug therapy, reduced consultations and a low hospital referral rate.

Predicting NSAID related ulcers--assessment of clinical and pathological risk factors and importance of differences in NSAID

Although ulcers are often associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) little is known about the feasibility of predicting their development in patients taking NSAIDs. In addition, the ulcerogenic potentials of the newer NSAIDs, taken on long term basis, have not been compared with those of more established preparations. The aim of this study was to identify the clinical and pathological characteristics of patients at a higher risk of NSAID induced ulcers, measure the ulcerogenic potential of a variety of NSAIDs, and test the effect of these potentials on the predictability of ulceration. Altogether 190 long term NSAID users were studied. The presence of abdominal complaints, previous history of ulcers, arthritis related physical disability, anaemia, gastritis, and Helicobacter pylori status were all assessed as possible risk factors. NSAIDs were classified into established drugs (group I), and newer agents (group II). Group I included naproxen, indomethacin, diclofenac, ketoprofen, piroxicam, and flurbiprofen. Group II included fenbufen, nabumetone, ibuprofen, etodolac, azapropazone, and tiaprofenic acid. Of 63 ulcers identified in the study group, 51 (81%) were seen in group I NSAID patients (51 of 132, 39%) compared with 12 ulcers in group II (12 of 58, 21%), p < 0.02; estimated relative risk (ERR): 2.41). In group I, 25 ulcers were found in 38 patients with abdominal pain (25 of 38, 66%, p < 0.01, ERR: 5.03); 18 in 25 (72%) patients with a previous history of ulcers (p < 0.001, ERR: 5.77), 26 in 44 (59%) patients with debilitating arthritis (p < 0.001, ERR 3.64), and 35 in 73 (48%) patients with H pylori associated gastritis (p < 0.01, ERR: 2.48). The presence of these factors in group II patients did not influence the risk of ulceration. Group I NSAIDs were more likely to be associated with chemical gastritis and to intensify H pylori related damage. Although silent ulcers are not uncommon in patients taking NSAIDs, recognition of the risk factors might helps predict a significant number (up to 81%), especially in those receiving group I NSAIDs.

The intensity and variability of symptoms in dyspepsia

During the waiting time for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy 165 patients with dyspepsia completed a questionnaire and a diary for daily measurements of the symptoms pain, heartburn, and global complaints. 23 patients (14%) had peptic ulcer disease (PUD), 18 oesophagitis (11%), and the rest were labelled nonulcer dyspepsia (NUD). NUD was further subdivided into ulcer-like, reflux-like, dysmotility, and essential NUD by means of predefined symptom profiles. 39 (24%) patients were on H2 receptor antagonist treatment. In general, the intensity of the daily symptoms was rather low, and except for a higher rating of heartburn in oesophagitis, there were no significant differences between PUD, oesophagitis, and NUD--treated or untreated. NUD patients with reflux-like dyspepsia had significantly more heartburn than the group with essential NUD; otherwise there were no differences between the subgroups of NUD. The individual daily ratings for abdominal pain, heartburn, and global symptoms varied by an average standard deviation of 64%, 97% and 47% of the mean values, respectively, and were independent of treatment or diagnoses. There was an approximately 40% probability that two successive days had different levels of symptoms. Only 10% of the patients showed stable symptoms, and the patients were completely symptom-free for 20% of the observation period. Symptoms in dyspepsia patients disclosed low intensity and high variability in this study. Such factors may be important sources of bias in clinical trials.

Improving the selection of patients for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy

A retrospective study was undertaken to investigate how endoscopies yielding positive findings differ a priori from those yielding negative findings: and how those judged 'helpful' (in the sense of influencing management) differ a priori from those judged 'unhelpful'. A total of 483 patients undergoing endoscopy was sampled and a wide range of data abstracted, including 48 patient characteristics available to the gastroenterologist at the time of the decision to perform endoscopy. Sixty nine per cent of endoscopies were positive. Multivariate statistical analysis identified four variables which taken together were strongly predictive of a positive endoscopy. The resulting mathematical formula correctly predicted the outcome of 76% of endoscopies. Eighty two per cent of the endoscopies were retrospectively classified by the gastroenterologists as helpful. Six variables were strongly predictive of a helpful endoscopy. The corresponding formula correctly predicted the finding of 84% of endoscopies. Comparison of the two analyses shows that the two sets of predictions differ substantially. Thus it is important that decision tools should be based not on the crude distinction between positive and negative, but on the more useful distinction between helpful and unhelpful in influencing management.

Prediction of major pathologic conditions in dyspeptic patients referred for endoscopy. A prospective validation study of a scoring system

This study aimed to validate the use of a decision support system previously developed on answers to a structured interview of dyspeptic outpatients and designed to identify patients at low risk of organic dyspepsia. We evaluated the performance of the scoring system in two cohorts of dyspeptic outpatients: 878 consecutive Danish patients (study group) referred for upper endoscopy and 1279 British patients whose results had previously been reported (validation group). Performance of the scoring system was analysed by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and comparison of loss in detection rate of organic dyspepsia, defined as cancer, ulcer, and complicated oesophagitis. The performance of the scoring system in the study group was less favourable over the entire span of cut-off points evaluated. This was reflected by a significant decrease in area under the ROC curve (65.1% versus 75.0%). The only cut-off point with an acceptable loss in detection rate (3.1%) led to a reduction in endoscopic activity of only 7.5%. Despite optimal working conditions the scoring system could not be used as a safe method of extracting dyspeptic patients with a low probability of organic dyspepsia. Before adopting a predictive scoring system, clinicians must evaluate its applicability in their own setting.

Provision of gastrointestinal endoscopy and related services for a district general hospital. Working Party of the Clinical Services Committee of the British Society of Gastroenterology

(1) The number of endoscopic examinations performed is rising. Epidemiological data and the workload of well developed units show that annual requirements per head of population are approaching: Upper gastrointestinal 1 in 100 Flexible sigmoidoscopy 1 in 500 Colonoscopy 1 in 500 ERCP 1 in 2000 (2) Open access endoscopy to general practitioners is desirable and increasingly sought. For a district general hospital serving a population of 250,000, this workload entails about 3500 procedures annually, performed during 10 half day routine sessions plus emergency work. (3) High standards of training and experience are needed by all staff, who must work in purpose built accommodation designed to promote efficient and safe practice. (4) The endoscopy unit should be adjacent to day care facilities and near the x ray department. There should be easy access to wards. (5) An endoscopy unit needs at least two endoscopy rooms; a fully ventilated cleaning/disinfection area; rooms for patient reception, preparation, and recovery; and accommodation for administration, storage, and staff amenities. (6) The service should be consultant based. At least 10 clinical sessions are required, made up of six or more consultant sessions and two to four clinical assistant, hospital practitioner, or staff specialist sessions. Each consultant should be expected to commit at least two sessions weekly to endoscopy. Extra consultant sessions may be needed to provide an efficient service. (7) A specially trained nursing sister (grade G or H) and five other endoscopy nurses are needed to care for the patients; their work may be supplemented by care assistants. (8) A new post of endoscopy department assistant (analogous to an operating department assistant) is proposed to maintain and prepare instruments, and to give technical assistance during procedures. (9) A full time secretary should be employed. Records, appointments, and audit should be computer based. (10) ERCP needs the collaboration of an interventional radiologist working with high quality x ray equipment in a specially prepared radiology screening room. This facility may need to serve more than one hospital. (11) A gastrointestinal measurement laboratory can conveniently be combined with the endoscopy unit. In some hospitals one or more gastrointestinal measurement technicians may staff this laboratory. (12) An endoscopy unit is a service department analogous to a radiology department. It needs an annual budget.

Therapeutic trial in dyspepsia: its role in the primary care setting

Owing to the vast proportions of the dyspeptic patient population, it is not practicable to initiate diagnostic investigations immediately in every single patient who presents with dyspepsia. The risks associated with postponing definite diagnosis 4-8 weeks in dyspeptic patients aged less than 45 years are exceedingly small. Therefore, empiric therapeutic trial without a firm diagnosis is an acceptable alternative in those age groups. Those who recover during the course of the trial are spared the costs and inconvenience of invasive tests. Possible adverse consequences for the patients are minimized if the therapy covers those organic diseases that may cause complications (such as peptic ulcer and esophagitis). The concept of diagnosis-free therapeutic trials presupposes, however, that a sufficiently large number of patients are cured and that their need of investigation is permanently eliminated. If not, inevitable investigations are only postponed. In those patients the costs will thereby not only be the same as if early investigation had been carried out, but the total costs may in fact increase in a longer perspective owing to suboptimal management in the period before a firm diagnosis has been established. Thus, the ideal strategy would be to treat those who have a high probability of recovering during the ensuing 6-8 weeks and to investigate those in whom a prolonged course is anticipated. An empiric therapeutic trial must be followed by a thorough evaluation within 8 weeks.

Early detection of gastric cancer

OBJECTIVE

To see whether investigation of dyspeptic patients aged over 40 after their first consultation with the general practitioner would increase the proportions with early and operable gastric cancers.

DESIGN

Prospective study of gastric cancer in dyspeptic patients aged over 40 from a defined population.

SETTING

10 General practices (six in central Birmingham, four in Sandwell); the Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham; and Sandwell District General Hospital.

PATIENTS

2659 Patients aged 40 or over referred with dyspepsia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Increase in early and operable gastric cancers detected in middle aged patients with dyspepsia.

RESULTS

Disease was identified in 1992 patients (75%). Fifty seven were found to have gastric cancer, 36 being treated by potentially curative resection, including 15 with early cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The investigation of dyspeptic patients over 40 at first attendance can increase the proportion of early gastric cancers detected to 26% and the proportion of operable cases to 63%. Such a policy has the potential to reduce mortality from gastric cancer in the population.

The predictive value of history in dyspepsia

Symptomatic patients referred to an open-access upper gastrointestinal endoscopy completed a detailed, self-administered questionnaire aimed at assessing the predictive value of history in dyspepsia. Nine hundred and thirty patients were suitable for analysis. Of these, 29% were found to have organic dyspepsia. A substantial overlap of symptoms and demographic data was found among the various endoscopic diagnoses. Discriminating variables were identified by stepwise logistic regression analysis and included in predictive score models. Pain relieved by antacids, age above 40 years, previous peptic ulcer disease, male sex, symptoms provoked by berries, and night pain relieved by antacids and food were found to predict organic dyspepsia with a sensitivity and specificity of approximately 70%, when applied on the observed material. Similar probabilities were found for score models of peptic ulcer and esophagitis. In general, the low prevalence of organic diseases resulted in low positive and high negative predictive values. Accordingly, the main impact of the predictive models may be to reduce the number of negative endoscopies rather than to predict a precise diagnosis. Independent of disease category and age, 41% of the subjects expressed a fear of malignancy, emphasizing the value of reassurance from a negative endoscopy.

Effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs on dyspeptic symptoms

Images

Open access gastroscopy: too much to swallow?

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the proportion of endoscopic examinations with normal findings in patients referred for gastroscopy through hospital medical staff or directly by their general practitioner and to assess the likely effect of targeting endoscopy in older patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective audit of the gastroscopy practice of one consultant from 1986 to 1988 from information recorded on a standard form completed at the time of the examination, which contained details of patients, their endoscopic findings, and mode of referral (open access or clinic).

SETTING

One district general hospital.

PATIENTS

1545 Consecutive patients from primary catchment area attending for their first gastroscopy; 454 were referred through the outpatient clinic or by hospital colleagues (clinic group) and 1091 were accepted for endoscopy solely on their general practitioner's clinical diagnosis (open access group).

RESULTS

Similar numbers (about 40%) of examinations with normal findings were performed in each group, although in patients aged over 40 the proportion with normal findings was significantly higher in the clinic group (p less than 0.03). Endoscopic evidence of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, peptic ulceration, and gastroduodenal inflammation was equally common in each group; upper gastrointestinal malignancy, however, was significantly more common in patients referred through hospital doctors (5%, 23/454 v 2%, 22/1091 respectively; p less than 0.005) (although many of these patients had already been extensively investigated).

IMPLICATIONS

Open access gastroscopy does not increase the number of unnecessary examinations and should become more widely available. Targeting this service to patients aged over 40 would reduce the number of requests but increase the diagnostic yield.

Validation of a self-administered urological questionnaire

Self-administered questionnaires are widely used in clinical practice and as an aid to research. However, their reliability as a means of eliciting symptoms of urological disease has not been established. A questionnaire designed to elicit symptoms of urological disease was validated in 120 patients (36 out-patients, 27 in-patients and 57 community patients). All found the questionnaire acceptable and the completion rate was 99%. Only 3 of 648 answers were changed on the test-retest analysis. Consistency, as assessed by a comparison of responses by clinician and patient, was satisfactory in 11 of 15 questions relating to urological symptoms and the questionnaire successfully identified a high risk group of patients from the community requiring further urological evaluation. The need to include results of a preliminary validation study when reporting results obtained by a self-administered questionnaire is emphasised.

Outcome and benefits of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in the elderly

Presenting symptoms, physical findings and treatment were reviewed in 70 patients over 65 years old who underwent oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy in the Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast, during an 18-month period. Most frequent indications for the procedure were epigastric pain, retrosternal pain or haematemesis. Physical signs were present in only 54%. Abnormal endoscopic findings were detected in 97%. The majority of patients responded to subsequent treatment. It was not possible to identify clinical features associated with major gastrointestinal pathology, which aided selection of those subgroups of elderly patients who would most benefit from endoscopy.

A model-based system to determine the relative value of different variables in a diagnostic system using Bayes theorem

A model system is described which simulates the presenting features of cases of vaginal discharge. This system was used to examine the effects of removing individual clinical features on the overall efficiency of diagnosis by Bayes theorem. The diagnostic efficiency was significantly reduced by elimination of inflammation, of a frothy discharge, or of a curdy discharge. Elimination of more than one significant factor further reduced the number of correct diagnoses, but elimination of more than one non-significant factor made no obvious difference. The most significant clinical feature was presence of inflammation; elimination of this feature had a substantial effect on the diagnosis of gardnerella, viral, gonorrhoea and foreign body. Elimination of two of the variables (bloodstaining and odour) which did not influence overall diagnostic efficiency nevertheless had a substantial effect on the diagnosis of neoplasms and foreign bodies. It is proposed that a simulation of this type is of potential practical value in determining a minimum subset of clinical features for diagnostic systems involving Bayes theorem.

Do young patients with dyspepsia need investigation?

During 1986, 1386 patients with simple dyspepsia were referred by general practitioners for endoscopy (686) or double-contrast barium meal examination (700) at Leicester General Hospital. 618 (45%) were under the age of 45 years. Abnormal findings were more common in older than younger dyspeptic patients (58% vs 40% at endoscopy, 69% vs 25% by barium meal). Malignant disorders were diagnosed in 5% at endoscopy and 3% at barium meal, but in no patient under 45 years old. The incidence of malignant disorders at endoscopy was analysed for the 6 years 1980-86. Of 707 cases identified, only 13 (1.8%) occurred in patients under 45 years old; all 13 had symptoms suggesting pathology more serious than simple dyspepsia. It can be concluded that young patients with simple dyspepsia are overinvestigated. A majority can be treated safely with antacids and/or histamine receptor type 2 antagonists.

Cimetidine responders in non-ulcer dyspepsia

The effect of cimetidine and placebo was examined in 123 patients with non-ulcer dyspepsia (NUD) by means of a 12-day multi-crossover model with 5 regular interchanges between cimetidine and placebo. The evaluation of effect in individual patients was based on the number of times cimetidine was associated with less symptoms than the preceding or following placebo period. If cimetidine had no effect, the probability of being defined as a cimetidine responder was 25%. In general, cimetidine was associated with less symptoms than placebo (p less than 0.0001). Forty patients were identified as cimetidine responders (R) and the remaining patients were termed non-responders (NR). Symptoms compatible with gastroesophageal reflux were significantly more frequent in R than in NR, whereas the opposite was true for symptoms of the irritable colon syndrome. The ability of symptoms selected by stepwise logistic regression to predict response to cimetidine showed at best a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of about 65%. No differences were found between R and NR with regard to acid secretion, endoscopic and histologic findings, or the result of an acid perfusion test. The present study supports the existence of a subgroup of cimetidine responders among patients with NUD characterized by symptoms suggestive of gastroesophageal reflux disease in the absence of confirmatory objective evidence.

Endoscopy: its diagnostic role in dyspepsia

Fibreoptic endoscopy is now recognised as the most reliable diagnostic technique for establishing the cause of upper gastro-intestinal symptoms. However, in the UK the demand for endoscopic diagnosis far outstrips our ability to meet it and in this article an attempt is made to define how one can limit this demand so that a high diagnostic yield can be anticipated.

Some points on the use of 'independent Bayes' to diagnose acute abdominal pain

This paper outlines some of the difficulties encountered when using independent Bayes as a statistical decision aid for acute abdominal pain. Methods of reducing the resultant problems are suggested. Restriction of the number of facets in the system reduces violation of the simplifying assumption of symptom independence without adversely affecting efficiency. Introduction of a realistic utility structure is investigated as is the potential transportability of the decision aid. Generalizations of the results are discussed and potential uses of medical decision aids are considered.

Use of an open-access gastroscopy service by a general practice: findings and subsequent specialist referral rate

An analysis of 102 open-access gastroscopy requests from one general practice over 38 months showed that the detection rate of abnormalities was 58%. Even though no predetermined investigation criteria were used these results compare favourably with gastroscopy findings generally and are superior to the detection rate of lesions using barium meals. Only 12% of the patients who underwent gastroscopy required subsequent referral to a consultant. This represents a major benefit, hitherto undocumented, of an open-access gastroscopy service. Considerations of accuracy, safety and cost effectiveness coupled with the availability of efficacious drugs appear to favour the case for open-access gastroscopy for general practitioners.

Prospective testing of a scoring system designed to improve case selection for upper gastrointestinal investigation

A recently described scoring system designed to assess the individual risk of finding serious pathology in patients referred for upper gastrointestinal investigation has been prospectively tested in 1279 patients undergoing first-time endoscopy and 321 patients undergoing radiologic examination. The scoring system has been confirmed to give a reasonable prediction of the likelihood of finding serious pathology in two hospitals with differing endoscopic practice, and also to be applicable to patients attending for radiology. The system works best at defining a low-risk group (score less than 412, 26% of total) in which the incidence of serious pathology was 3%. All cases of malignancy (n = 55) occurred in patients scoring greater than 464 (50% of total). A simple table is described that allows for the easy calculation of score at a glance without the use of a computer. We believe that this scoring system, which can be implemented in seconds, is the simplest yet described and that it could prove to be a useful educational aid.

The role of a questionnaire and four biochemical markers to detect cancer risk in a symptomatic population

The roles of a self-completed symptom questionnaire and four biochemical markers of disease were assessed to determine risk for gastric and colorectal cancer from within a hospital population and a random population. Eight-six patients with cancer, 168 subjects with benign conditions of the stomach and large bowel and 720 individuals from the community at large were investigated. Multivariate analyses of the questionnaire and biochemical data were performed individually and in combination using a data set comprising 54 cancer subjects, 80 patients with benign disease and 200 random individuals. The most favourable predictive equation derived was then applied to the remaining data set to determine its efficacy. In the primary analyses the questionnaire data identified 32 (60%) cancers successfully and using the biochemical markers alone 36 (67%) patients were also correctly classified as cancer bearing. However, the combination of the questionnaire and marker data improved the sensitivity for cancer to 50 cancers detected (92%) (P less than 0.02). Using the predictive equation from this combination of data to identify risk in the second data set 28/32 (88%) cancers were correctly identified with only an 11% false positive rate. An 18 month follow-up for the non-cancer group has to date revealed only one cancer (ca. pancreas). In this limited study, multivariate analysis of questionnaire and biochemical marker data does successfully identify individuals at "high risk' of harbouring gastric or colorectal cancer within a symptomatic population and may have a role in determining priority for investigation for a symptomatic individual.

Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy--a view from general practice

An open-access upper gastrointestinal endoscopy service for general practitioners is described. Between July 1981 and May 1985, 391 endoscopies were performed on 354 patients. In contrast to the results of other studies, demand for endoscopy and the pick-up rate for major lesions has remained steady, and the number of requests for barium meals has fallen by almost a quarter. Major lesions - cancer, gastric and duodenal ulcers and severe oesophagitis - were found in 33% of patients. Oesophagitis accounted for 28% of positive endoscopies and 18% of positive endoscopies in patients with barium negative dyspepsia. With scarce resources there may, however, be a case for ;selective' access to upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in the future.

Clinical prediction rules. Applications and methodological standards

The objective of clinical prediction rules is to reduce the uncertainty inherent in medical practice by defining how to use clinical findings to make predictions. Clinical prediction rules are derived from systematic clinical observations. They can help physicians identify patients who require diagnostic tests, treatment, or hospitalization. Before adopting a prediction rule, clinicians must evaluate its applicability to their patients. We describe methodological standards that can be used to decide whether a prediction rule is suitable for adoption in a clinician's practice. We applied these standards to 33 reports of prediction rules; 42 per cent of the reports contained an adequate description of the prediction rules, the patients, and the clinical setting. The misclassification rate of the rule was measured in only 34 per cent of reports, and the effects of the rule on patient care were described in only 6 per cent of reports. If the objectives of clinical prediction rules are to be fully achieved, authors and readers need to pay close attention to basic principles of study design.

Validation of a self administered questionnaire to elicit gastrointestinal symptoms

Self administered questionnaires are becoming popular investigative tools in medical research, yet few reports state the extent of methods used to validate these questionnaires before their general use. A pilot study was therefore carried out to validate a 41 item questionnaire for use in a population screening study for gastrointestinal disease. Participants in the study comprised 69 population controls, 40 patients with benign disease, and 35 patients with gastrointestinal cancer. Acceptability, ease of completion, reliability, and reproducibility of the questionnaire were all assessed. Only one subject refused to complete the questionnaire. Ninety six per cent of the questions were completed by each subject and only one response in 1440 was altered in the reproducibility study. The questionnaire disclosed symptoms similar to those elicited by a clinician and highlighted unreported gastrointestinal symptoms in the control group. Three questions were found to be unreliable and were altered before the questionnaire was put into general use. It is concluded that a pilot study to validate a new questionnaire is simple to perform and necessary to identify unreliable questions.

Can preliminary screening of dyspeptic patients allow more effective use of investigational techniques?

A total of 1041 patients with undiagnosed dyspepsia were interviewed to determine whether they required investigation for organic disease. The interviewer, a research assistant without medical qualifications, used a standard data sheet. The information obtained was analysed by computer, and, according to the results, patients were predicted to be at high, medium, or low risk. They were then followed up and the final diagnosis was compared with the risk predicted by computer. Patients predicted to be at low risk had a 10% chance of having ulcer disease and a 0.3% chance of having cancer, whereas patients predicted to be at high risk had a 20% chance of having ulcer disease and a 10% chance of having cancer. Appropriate preliminary screening of patients with acute dyspepsia can separate a group at low risk who will require investigation only if their symptoms do not resolve and a group at high risk requiring urgent outpatient consultation.