Coping with winter bed crises. New surveillance systems might help

Forecasting national and regional influenza-like illness for the USA

Health planners use forecasts of key metrics associated with influenza-like illness (ILI); near-term weekly incidence, week of season onset, week of peak, and intensity of peak. Here, we describe our participation in a weekly prospective ILI forecasting challenge for the United States for the 2016-17 season and subsequent evaluation of our performance. We implemented a metapopulation model framework with 32 model variants. Variants differed from each other in their assumptions about: the force-of-infection (FOI); use of uninformative priors; the use of discounted historical data for not-yet-observed time points; and the treatment of regions as either independent or coupled. Individual model variants were chosen subjectively as the basis for our weekly forecasts; however, a subset of coupled models were only available part way through the season. Most frequently, during the 2016-17 season, we chose; FOI variants with both school vacations and humidity terms; uninformative priors; the inclusion of discounted historical data for not-yet-observed time points; and coupled regions (when available). Our near-term weekly forecasts substantially over-estimated incidence early in the season when coupled models were not available. However, our forecast accuracy improved in absolute terms and relative to other teams once coupled solutions were available. In retrospective analysis, we found that the 2016-17 season was not typical: on average, coupled models performed better when fit without historically augmented data. Also, we tested a simple ensemble model for the 2016-17 season and found that it underperformed our subjective choice for all forecast targets. In this study, we were able to improve accuracy during a prospective forecasting exercise by coupling dynamics between regions. Although reduction of forecast subjectivity should be a long-term goal, some degree of human intervention is likely to improve forecast accuracy in the medium-term in parallel with the systematic consideration of more sophisticated ensemble approaches.

A Novel Method to Identify the Start and End of the Winter Surge in Demand for Pediatric Intensive Care in Real Time

OBJECTIVE

Implementation of winter surge management in intensive care is hampered by the annual variability in the start and duration of the winter surge. We aimed to develop a real-time monitoring system that could identify the start promptly and accurately predict the end of the winter surge in a pediatric intensive care setting.

DESIGN

We adapted a method from the stock market called "Bollinger bands" to compare current levels of demand for pediatric intensive care services to thresholds based on medium-term average demand. Algorithms to identify the start and end of the surge were developed using Bollinger bands and pragmatic considerations. The method was applied to a specific pediatric intensive care service: the North Thames Children's Acute Transport Service using eight winters of data (2005-2012) to tune the algorithms and one winter to test the final method (2013/2014).

SETTING

A regional specialized pediatric retrieval service based in London, United Kingdom.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The optimal Bollinger band thresholds were 1.2 and 1 SDs above and below a 41-day moving average of demand, respectively. A simple linear model was found to predict the end of the surge and overall surge demand volume as soon as the start had been identified. Applying the method to the validation winter of 2013/2014 showed excellent performance, with the surge identified from November 18, 2013, to January 4, 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and tested a novel method to identify the start and predict the end of the winter surge in emergency demand for pediatric intensive care.

Increased emergency department chief complaints of fever identified the influenza (H1N1) pandemic before outpatient symptom surveillance

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a sentinel clinic network or an emergency department (ED) was more timely in identifying the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic.

METHODS

All reasons for presenting to the adult regional medical ED were coded online by admission secretaries, without the aid of medical personnel. Increased influenza activity defined by weekly chief complaints of fever was compared with activity defined by the Israel Center for Disease Control (viral surveillance as well as a large sentinel clinic network).

RESULTS

Influenza activity during the pandemic increased in the ED 2 weeks before outpatient sentinel clinics. During the pandemic, maximal ED activity was much higher than in previous seasons. Maximal activity during the past 5 years correlated with the timeliness of the chief complaint of fever in identifying the onset of epidemics.

CONCLUSION

Chief complaint of fever in the ED can be a sensitive marker of increased influenza activity and might replace the use of sentinel clinics.

A Comparison of Methods for Forecasting Emergency Department Visits for Respiratory Illness Using Telehealth Ontario Calls

Objectives: Anticipating increases in hospital emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory illness could help time interventions such as opening flu clinics to reduce surges in ED visits. Five different methods for estimating ED visits for respiratory illness from Telehealth Ontario calls are compared, including two non-linear modeling methods. Daily visit estimates up to 14 days in advance were made at the health unit level for all 36 Ontario health units.

Methods: Telehealth calls from June 1, 2004 to March 14, 2006 were included. Estimates generated by regression, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), Numerical Methods for Subspace State Space Identification (N4SID), Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS), and Parallel Cascade Identification (PCI) were compared to the actual number of ED visits for respiratory illness identified from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) database. Model predictor variables included Telehealth Ontario calls and upcoming holidays/weekends. Models were fit using the first 304 days of data and prediction accuracy was measured over the remaining 348 days.

Results: Forecast accuracy was significantly better (p<0.0001) for the 12 Ontario health units with a population over 400,000 (75% of the Ontario population) than for smaller health units. Compared to regression, FOS produced better estimates (p=0.03) while there was no significant improvement for PCI-based estimates. FOS, PCI, EWMA and N4SID performed worse than regression over the remaining smaller health units.

Conclusion: Telehealth can be used to estimate ED visits for respiratory illness at the health unit level. Non-linear modeling methods produced better estimates than regression in larger health units.

Increased complaints of fever in the emergency room can identify influenza epidemics

BACKGROUND

In developing countries, it may be easier to use the reasons why patients come to the emergency room (ER) instead of sentinel practices to identify influenza epidemics.

METHODS

We studied the reasons why adult patients present to the ER in order to attempt to predict increased hospital activity as a result of influenza. The daily frequency of presenting symptoms during the 30 days of maximal influenza activity was compared to the other days of the study period (335 days).

RESULTS

During the influenza period, more patients presented with fever, syncope or near syncope, cough, asthma attack, and paralysis than on the days outside of this period. On 50% of the days, eight or more patients presented with fever, an 8.36 (95% CI=4.6-15.19) higher frequency than during the rest of the year. During the subsequent year, days with excess presentations by patients with a principal complaint of fever predicted increased hospital activity due to influenza with no false-positive periods.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that an increase in the number of patients presenting to the ER complaining of fever can identify increased hospital influenza activity.

The impact of home hospitalization on healthcare costs of exacerbations in COPD patients

Home-hospitalization (HH) improves clinical outcomes in selected patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) admitted at the emergency room due to an exacerbation, but its effects on healthcare costs are poorly known. The current analysis examines the impact of HH on direct healthcare costs, compared to conventional hospitalizations (CH). A randomized controlled trial was performed in two tertiary hospitals in Barcelona (Spain). A total of 180 exacerbated COPD patients (HH 103 and CH 77) admitted at the emergency room were studied. In the HH group, a specialized respiratory nurse delivered integrated care at home. The average direct cost per patient was significantly lower for HH than for CH, with a difference of euro 810 (95% CI, euro 418-1,169) in the mean cost per patient. The magnitude of monetary savings attributed to HH increased with the severity of the patients considered eligible for the intervention.

Reasons patients present to the emergency department might change during epidemics and be a valuable component of a disease surveillance system

We hypothesize that the frequency of reasons patients present to the emergency department will change during epidemics and might be a valuable component of a disease surveillance system. We found support for this hypothesis over a two-year period with high frequency days of fever clustering during two periods of increased hospital influenza activity, but not during any other period during the two-years. This methodology appears to be superior to the previous use of triage nurses defining patients with symptom complexes. Such a system could result in online monitoring, be independent of the medical personnel (use of admission secretary), and might be able to identify various epidemics including increased hospital disease activity due to bio-terror attacks, influenza, and food poisoning. This would have important implications for limiting the spread of disease and for the acute planning of distribution of medical resources. Studies are warranted in various settings to determine whether or not changes in the daily frequencies of reasons patients present to the ED will allow identification of epidemics.

Exploring reasons for bed pressures in Winnipeg acute care hospitals

Hospital overcrowding has plagued Winnipeg and other Canadian cities for years. This study explored factors related to overcrowding. Hospital files were used to examine patterns of hospital use from fiscal years 1996/1997 to 1999/2000. Chart reviews were conducted to examine appropriateness of admissions and hospital stays during one pressure week. Results indicate that pressure periods in the hospital system were driven by an influx of older adults with influenza-associated respiratory illnesses. Moreover, examination of one specific pressure week showed that at least 100 beds were occupied by patients who likely did not require acute care. The chart review revealed that a substantial proportion of non-acute patient-days were spent awaiting home care, long-term care, or diagnostic testing services. These findings suggest future bed pressures might be prevented through influenza vaccination and an increase in the availability of--and timely transfer to--alternative levels of care.

Differences in COPD care among doctors who control the disease: general practitioner vs. pneumologist

AIM

To assess the role of doctors who patients report as responsible of their disease, in moderate-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), describing characteristics of patients and treatments use according to each type of doctor, and relating it to the way of access to hospital at the time of an exacerbation.

MATERIALS/PATIENTS AND METHODS

A systematic sample of 1:2 patients admitted for a COPD exacerbation during 1 year in four tertiary hospitals in the Barcelona area, Spain, was recruited. Information about health services was obtained by an administered questionnaire.

RESULTS

A total of 346 patients were recruited: mean age 69 (+/-9) years, percent of predicted FEV(1) of 35 (+/-16)%, PO(2) of 64 (+/-13)mmHg. At the time of admission, 17% of patients reported being controlled by a general practitioner (GP) and 56% by a pneumologist whereas 21% reported its COPD not being under the regular control of any doctor. Patients not controlled by a pneumologist did not suffer from milder COPD than the remaining, but were less likely to receive pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments and less likely to perform correctly the inhalation manoeuvres. During the course of the exacerbation 70% of patients reported a visit to a hospital emergency room department without a previous medical visit, this proportion being higher among those controlled by a pneumologist.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of control and variability in the patterns of care among patients controlled by different types of physicians are common in moderate-to-severe COPD patients admitted for a COPD exacerbation, despite the lack of differences in COPD severity. Medical control of COPD patients needs more investigation and a wider inclusion in international guidelines.

Sales of over-the-counter remedies as an early warning system for winter bed crises

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the pattern of emergency adult medical admissions during the winter period and the usefulness of sales of over-the-counter cough/cold remedies as a predictor of these.

METHODS

The databases of a single NHS trust acute unit and pharmacy outlets in its catchment area were analyzed retrospectively, comparing numbers of emergency admissions, ICD-10 discharge codes, local electronic point-of-sale (EPOS) and national sales data.

RESULTS

Over nine consecutive winter periods from 1992/3, peak admissions always occurred within a defined ten-day period from 29th December to 9th January. Emergency admissions increased significantly during this period (P = 0.0002). Pharmaceutical/retail data were available for three consecutive winters 1998/99, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001, none of which coincided with increased influenza activity nationally. Acute respiratory illness as defined by International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10) discharge coding did not appear to contribute to the increase in admissions at the peak. However, National and Local EPOS sales were positively correlated with admissions and the rate of EPOS sales exceeded an empiric threshold of 1000 units per week two weeks prior to the admissions peak in each year.

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency admissions over the winter period are increasing and can be expected within a period of only ten days each year. No firm relationship between acute respiratory illness and admissions could be defined but local EPOS data may give up to two weeks warning of the peak in admissions and merits further prospective evaluation.

Seasonal patterns of hospital use in Winnipeg: implications for managing winter bed crises

This study examined whether Winnipeg hospitals experience predictable "high-volume periods" in order to determine whether hospital overcrowding might be anticipated and, therefore, avoided. We found that high-volume periods among medical patients occurred during all but one year between 1987 and 1998. Most high-volume periods occurred during influenza seasons. Preventing such recurrent bed pressures requires a multi-faceted approach, involving preventive efforts to reduce hospital admissions (influenza vaccination) and alternatives to managing the hospital system.

Forecasting demand of emergency care

This paper describes a model that can forecast the daily number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions in an acute hospital. Out of sample forecasts 32 day days in advance. have an RMS error of 3% of the mean number of beds used for emergency admissions. We find that the number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions is related to both air temperature and PHLS data on influenza like illnesses. We find that a period of high volatility, indicated by GARCH errors, will result in an increase in waiting times in the A&E Department. Furthermore. volatility gives more warning of waiting times in A&E than total bed occupancy.

Influenza diagnosis and treatment: a view from clinical practice

Influenza is a descriptive term for respiratory epidemic disease presenting with cough and fever. Influenza viruses are probably the most important of the pathogens that cause this condition. Clinical influenza occurs almost every winter in England and Wales and the outbreaks last 8-10 weeks. In recent years, influenza B virus outbreaks have occurred in January and February, whereas influenza H3N2 virus outbreaks have generally started long before Christmas. Influenza H3N2 virus outbreaks pressurize health service resources in winter more than influenza B viruses, that do not have the same impact in elderly people. Infections with influenza H1N1 viruses are also usually less severe in their impact than those with influenza H3N2 viruses, but, unlike influenza B viruses, influenza H1N1 viruses have a pandemic potential along with influenza H3N2 viruses. A diagnosis of respiratory infection in primary care is based on the presenting symptoms set within the context of the current pattern of consultations of patients with similar illness. Measurement of temperature, inspection of the throat and examination of the chest or ears add a little to the diagnostic process, but in general these procedures do not help in identifying the organism. However, if it is known that influenza viruses are circulating in the community, the probability of influenza as the cause is greatly increased, as was shown in clinical trials of neuraminidase antivirals. Maximum confusion occurs when respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza cocirculate. Although RSV infection can occur throughout the winter in young children, it assumes more of an epidemic character just before Christmas in children and possibly in adults just after. During seven of the last 20 winters, influenza has been prevalent around Christmas/New Year. In routine virological surveillance of influenza-like illness in the community during the winters of 1997, 1998 and 1999, ca. 30% of swab specimens yielded influenza viruses and 20% RSV. Given the limitations for routine surveillance, including variations in the interval between illness onset and specimen capture, the quality of swab, delays in transport, the growth properties of virus culture methods, etc., these figures probably underestimate the impact of both viruses in the community. The impact of influenza is considered against the background of total respiratory infections presenting to general practitioners over the last 10 years and some comparisons are made with the 1969 pandemic experience. Lessons relevant to pandemic planning are drawn. Current options for investigation and treatment are compared with those available in 1969. These include near-patient tests for assisting with diagnosis, widespread use of vaccination as a preventive in patients at increased risk, the availability of amantadine and the newer neuraminidase inhibitor antivirals and changes in the delivery of health care. Major advances in the understanding of influenza and improvements in investigation and treatment have taken place over the last 30 years. However, there are many obstacles before these can be translated into effective management of influenza sufferers and control of major epidemics.

Mortality during the winter flu epidemic--two cases of death associated with self-medication

We report two cases of mortality associated with the recent winter influenza outbreak. Both cases were associated with self-medication. In one case an elderly lady died from haemorrhagic duodenitis induced by over the counter ibuprofen. In the second case the lady died from the consequences of exceeding the recommended doses of paracetamol by combining doses of the generic product with proprietary flu-remedies and Tylex (paracetamol and codeine).

Update on influenza and other viral pneumonias

Major developments during the past 5 years concerning influenza prevention by vaccination and treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors are reviewed. These have been accompanied by increased media interest in related issues: pressures on hospital admissions, ethical concerns and controls on prescribing limiting professional autonomy. The new live attenuated influenza vaccines, adjuvanted vaccines and the emerging recombinant DNA vaccines are discussed. Recent information on neuraminidase inhibitor antivirals, surveillance for resistant viruses, the prospects for near patient tests (i.e. tests that can be used near the patient to improve immediate patient management or in the laboratory to give rapid feedback for physicians) and the clinical significance of other respiratory viruses are highlighted. The benefits of recent advances provide challenges for health care delivery and public acceptance as great as those involved in their scientific development.