The relation of price of antiretroviral drugs and foreign assistance with coverage of HIV treatment in Africa: retrospective study

Cost-effectiveness of CRAG-LFA screening for cryptococcal meningitis among people living with HIV in Uganda

Background

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) constitutes a significant source of mortality in resource-limited regions. Cryptococcal antigen (CRAG) can be detected in the blood before onset of meningitis. We sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of implementing CRAG screening using the recently developed CRAG lateral flow assay in Uganda compared to current practice without screening.

Methods

A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare two strategies for cryptococcal prevention among people living with HIV with CD4 < 100 in Uganda: No cryptococcal screening vs. CRAG screening with WHO-recommended preemptive treatment for CRAG-positive patients. The model was constructed to reflect primary HIV clinics in Uganda, with a cohort of HIV-infected patients with CD4 < 100 cells/uL. Primary outcomes were expected costs, DALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We evaluated varying levels of programmatic implementation in secondary analysis.

Results

CRAG screening was considered highly cost-effective and was associated with an ICER of $6.14 per DALY averted compared to no screening (95% uncertainty range: $-20.32 to $36.47). Overall, implementation of CRAG screening was projected to cost $1.52 more per person, and was projected to result in a 40% relative reduction in cryptococcal-associated mortality. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, CRAG screening was cost-effective in 100% of scenarios and cost saving (ie cheaper and more effective than no screening) in 30% of scenarios. Secondary analysis projected a total cost of $651,454 for 100% implementation of screening nationally, while averting 1228 deaths compared to no screening.

Conclusion

CRAG screening for PLWH with low CD4 represents excellent value for money with the potential to prevent cryptococcal morbidity and mortality in Uganda.

Affordability of adult HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries: modelling price determinants for a better insight of the market functioning

Introduction

This study aims to provide a landscape of the global antiretroviral (ARV) market by analyzing the transactional data on donor-funded ARV procurement between 2003 and 2015, and the ARV price determinants.

Design

The data were obtained from the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) managed by the AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service of the WHO, and it consists of information that covers approximately 80% of the total donor-funded adult ARV transactions procurement.

Methods

ExWorks prices and procured quantities were standardized according to the guidelines in terms of yearly doses. Descriptive statistics on quantities and prices show the main trends of the ARV market. Ordinary least squares estimation was carried out for the whole sample, then stratified according to the type of supplier (originator and generic) and controlled for time and geographical fixed-effects. Given that analyses were carried out on a public dataset on ARV transactional prices from the GPRM, ethics are respected and consent was not necessary.

Results

Originator medicines are on average the least expensive in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where at the same time, generic medicines are on average the most expensive. By contrast, originator medicines are the most expensive in Europe and Central Asia, and generic medicines are the least expensive. In fact, the data suggest mixed strategies by ARV suppliers to exploit opportunities for profit maximization and to adapt to the specific conditions of market competition in each region. Our results also suggest that the expiration of patents is not sufficient to boost additional developments in generic competition (at least in the ARV market) and that formal or informal agreements between generic firms may de facto slow down or even reverse long-term trends towards price decreases.

Conclusions

Our findings provide an improved understanding of the ARV market that can help countries strengthen policy measures to increase their bargaining power in price negotiations and the use of TRIPS flexibilities, with a special emphasis on negotiations with generic manufacturers.

Past and Future Performance: PEPFAR in the Landscape of Foreign Aid for Health

This review traces the course of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) as a foreign aid program. It illustrates how the epidemiologic and geopolitical environments of the early 2000s influenced PEPFAR's early directions and contributed to its successes. In addition to scaling up infrastructure and care delivery platforms, PEPFAR led to large increases in the number of people receiving antiretroviral therapy and reductions in mortality. These successes, in turn, have brought its principal challenges-its outsized budget, narrow focus, and problem of entitlement-into sharp relief. PEPFAR's recent evolution, then, has been in response to these challenges. This review suggests that PEPFAR's early formulation as an emergency response relieved it from a need to articulate clear goals, and that this freedom is now leading to new challenges as it struggles to identify priorities in the face of expectations to do more with a flat budget.

HIV development assistance and adult mortality in Africa

CONTEXT

The effect of global health initiatives on population health is uncertain. Between 2003 and 2008, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the largest initiative ever devoted to a single disease, operated intensively in 12 African focus countries. The initiative's effect on all-cause adult mortality is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether PEPFAR was associated with relative changes in adult mortality in the countries and districts where it operated most intensively.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Using person-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we conducted cross-country and within-country analyses of adult mortality (annual probability of death per 1000 adults between 15 and 59 years old) and PEPFAR's activities. Across countries, we compared adult mortality in 9 African focus countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia) with 18 African nonfocus countries from 1998 to 2008. We performed subnational analyses using information on PEPFAR's programmatic intensity in Tanzania and Rwanda. We employed difference-in-difference analyses with fixed effects for countries and years as well as personal and time-varying area characteristics.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Adult all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

We analyzed information on 1 538 612 adults, including 60 303 deaths, from 41 surveys in 27 countries, 9 of them focus countries. In 2003, age-adjusted adult mortality was 8.3 per 1000 adults in the focus countries (95% CI, 8.0-8.6) and 8.5 per 1000 adults (95% CI, 8.3-8.7) in the nonfocus countries. In 2008, mortality was 4.1 per 1000 (95% CI, 3.6-4.6) in the focus countries and 6.9 per 1000 (95% CI, 6.3-7.5) in the nonfocus countries. The adjusted odds ratio of mortality among adults living in focus countries compared with nonfocus countries between 2004 and 2008 was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.72-0.99; P = .03). Within Tanzania and Rwanda, the adjusted odds ratio of mortality for adults living in districts where PEPFAR operated more intensively was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.97; P = .02) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.56-0.99; P = .04), respectively, compared with districts where it operated less intensively.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2004 and 2008, all-cause adult mortality declined more in PEPFAR focus countries relative to nonfocus countries. It was not possible to determine whether PEPFAR was associated with mortality effects separate from reductions in HIV-specific deaths.