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Torres-Fernandez D, Dalsuco J, Bramugy J, Bassat Q, Varo R. Innovative strategies for the surveillance, prevention, and management of pediatric infections applied to low-income settings. Expert Rev Anti Infect Ther 2024; 22:413-422. [PMID: 38739471 DOI: 10.1080/14787210.2024.2354839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Infectious diseases still cause a significant burden of morbidity and mortality among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There are ample opportunities for innovation in surveillance, prevention, and management, with the ultimate goal of improving survival. AREAS COVERED This review discusses the current status in the use and development of innovative strategies for pediatric infectious diseases in LMICs by focusing on surveillance, diagnosis, prevention, and management. Topics covered are: Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling as a technique to accurately ascertain the cause of death; Genetic Surveillance to trace the pathogen genomic diversity and emergence of resistance; Artificial Intelligence as a multidisciplinary tool; Portable noninvasive imaging methods; and Prognostic Biomarkers to triage and risk stratify pediatric patients. EXPERT OPINION To overcome the specific hurdles in child health for LMICs, some innovative strategies appear at the forefront of research. If the development of these next-generation tools remains focused on accessibility, sustainability and capacity building, reshaping epidemiological surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment in LMICs, can become a reality and result in a significant public health impact. Their integration with existing healthcare infrastructures may revolutionize disease detection and surveillance, and improve child health and survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Torres-Fernandez
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Jessica Dalsuco
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Justina Bramugy
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Quique Bassat
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
- ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys, Barcelona, Spain
- Pediatrics Department, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Rosauro Varo
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
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Bellizzi S, Letchford N, Adib K, Probert WJ, Hancock P, Alsawalha L, Santoro A, Profili MC, Aguas R, Popescu C, Al Ariqi L, White L, Hayajneh W, Obeidat N, Nabeth P. Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan. Emerg Infect Dis 2023; 29:1738-1746. [PMID: 37610124 PMCID: PMC10461658 DOI: 10.3201/eid2909.221493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/24/2023] Open
Abstract
We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of 4 physical distancing strategies on reducing COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Jordan during March 2020-January 2021: no physical distancing; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed once a week; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed twice a week; and a permanent physical distancing intervention. Modeling showed that the fourth strategy would be most effective in reducing cases and deaths; however, this approach was only marginally beneficial to reducing COVID-19 disease compared with an intermittently enforced physical distancing intervention. Scenario-based model influenced policy-making and the evolution of the pandemic in Jordan confirmed the forecasting provided by the modeling exercise and helped confirm the effectiveness of the policy adopted by the government of Jordan.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - William J.M. Probert
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Penelope Hancock
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Lora Alsawalha
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Alessio Santoro
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Maria C. Profili
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Ricardo Aguas
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Christian Popescu
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Lubna Al Ariqi
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Lisa White
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Wail Hayajneh
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Nathir Obeidat
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Pierre Nabeth
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
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Chang SL, Nguyen QD, Martiniuk A, Sintchenko V, Sorrell TC, Prokopenko M. Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0001427. [PMID: 37068078 PMCID: PMC10109475 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2022] [Accepted: 03/20/2023] [Indexed: 04/18/2023]
Abstract
We modelled emergence and spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia between December 2021 and June 2022. This pandemic stage exhibited a diverse epidemiological profile with emergence of co-circulating sub-lineages of Omicron, further complicated by differences in social distancing behaviour which varied over time. Our study delineated distinct phases of the Omicron-associated pandemic stage, and retrospectively quantified the adoption of social distancing measures, fluctuating over different time periods in response to the observable incidence dynamics. We also modelled the corresponding disease burden, in terms of hospitalisations, intensive care unit occupancy, and mortality. Supported by good agreement between simulated and actual health data, our study revealed that the nonlinear dynamics observed in the daily incidence and disease burden were determined not only by introduction of sub-lineages of Omicron, but also by the fluctuating adoption of social distancing measures. Our high-resolution model can be used in design and evaluation of public health interventions during future crises.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sheryl L Chang
- Centre for Complex Systems, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Westmead, NSW, Australia
| | - Quang Dang Nguyen
- Centre for Complex Systems, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | - Vitali Sintchenko
- Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Westmead, NSW, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology - Public Health, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW, Australia
- Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research, NSW Health Pathology, Westmead, NSW, Australia
| | - Tania C Sorrell
- Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Westmead, NSW, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Mikhail Prokopenko
- Centre for Complex Systems, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Westmead, NSW, Australia
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