COVID-19-related healthcare impacts: an uncontrolled, segmented time-series analysis of tuberculosis diagnosis services in Mozambique, 2017-2020

A critical analysis of the decreasing trends in tuberculosis cure indicators in Brazil, 2001-2022

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis cure indicators in Brazil.

METHODS

An ecological time-series study using administrative data of reported cases of the disease nationwide between 2001 and 2022. We estimated cure indicators for each federative unit (FU) considering individuals with pulmonary tuberculosis, tuberculosis-HIV coinfection, and those in tuberculosis retreatment. We used regression models using joinpoint regression for trend analysis, reporting the annual percentage change and the average annual percentage change.

RESULTS

For the three groups analyzed, we observed heterogeneity in the annual percentage change in the Brazilian FUs, with a predominance of significantly decreasing trends in the cure indicator in most FUs, especially at the end of the time series. When considering national indicators, an average annual percentage change of -0.97% (95% CI: -1.23 to -0.74) was identified for the cure of people with pulmonary tuberculosis, of -1.11% (95% CI: -1.42 to -0.85) for the cure of people with tuberculosis-HIV coinfection, and of -1.44% (95% CI: -1.62 to -1.31) for the cure of people in tuberculosis retreatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreasing trends of cure indicators in Brazil are concerning and underscore a warning to public authorities, as it points to the possible occurrence of other treatment outcomes, such as treatment discontinuity and death. This finding contradicts current public health care policies and requires urgent strategies aiming to promote follow-up of patients during tuberculosis treatment in Brazil.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in Indonesia: a nationwide longitudinal analysis of programme data

BACKGROUND

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in high-burden countries has not been adequately assessed. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national tuberculosis programme in Indonesia, in association with indicators of human development and health-system capacity across all 514 districts in 34 provinces.

METHODS

We did a nationwide longitudinal analysis to compare tuberculosis case notification, treatment coverage, and mortality rates in Indonesia before (2016-19) and during (2020-21) the COVID-19 pandemic. The following outcomes were assessed: the district-level quarterly reported tuberculosis case notification rate (number of all reported tuberculosis cases per 100 000 population), treatment coverage (proportion of tuberculosis patients who started treatment), and all-cause mortality rate in patients with tuberculosis (number of reported deaths per 100 000 population). District-level data on COVID-19 incidence and deaths, health-system capacity, and human development and sociodemographics were also analysed. Multilevel linear spline regression was done to assess quarterly time trends for the three outcomes.

FINDINGS

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the tuberculosis case notification rate declined by 26% (case notification rate ratio 0·74, 95% CI 0·72-0·77) and treatment coverage declined by 11% (treatment coverage ratio 0·89, 95% CI 0·88-0·90), but there was no significant increase in all-cause mortality (all-cause mortality rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·91-1·04) compared with the pre-pandemic period. In the second year of the pandemic, we observed a partial recovery of the case notification rate from Q1 to Q4 of 2021, a persistent decrease in treatment coverage, and a decrease in the all-cause mortality rate from Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021. The multivariable analysis showed that the reduction in the tuberculosis case notification rate was associated with a higher COVID-19 incidence rate (adjusted odds ratio 3·1, 95% CI 1·1-8·6, for the highest compared with the lowest group) and fewer GeneXpert machines for tuberculosis diagnosis (3·1, 1·0-9·4, for the lowest compared with the highest group) per 100 000 population. The reduction in tuberculosis treatment coverage was associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (adjusted odds ratio 11·7, 95% CI 1·5-93·4, for the highest compared with the lowest group), fewer primary health centres (10·6, 4·1-28·0, for the lowest compared with the middle-high group), and a very low number of doctors (0·3, 0·1-0·9, for the low-middle compared with the lowest group) per 100 000 population. No factors were shown to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality.

INTERPRETATION

The COVID-19 pandemic adversely and unevenly affected the national tuberculosis programme across Indonesia, with the greatest impacts observed in districts with the lowest health-system capacity. These disruptions could lead to an escalation in tuberculosis transmission in the coming years, warranting the need for intensified efforts to control tuberculosis and strengthen local health systems.

FUNDING

Wellcome Africa Asia Programme Vietnam.

TRANSLATION

For the Bahasa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global-, Regional-, and National-Level Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Diagnoses, 2020-2021

Evaluating cross-country variability on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis (TB) may provide urgent inputs to control programs as countries recover from the pandemic. We compared expected TB notifications, modeled using trends in annual TB notifications from 2013-2019, with observed TB notifications to compute the observed to expected (OE) ratios for 170 countries. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to identify the covariates, out of 27 pandemic- and tuberculosis-relevant variables, that had the strongest explanatory power for log OE ratios. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 1.55 million (95% CI: 1.26-1.85, 21.0% [17.5-24.6%]) decrease in TB diagnoses in 2020 and a 1.28 million (0.90-1.76, 16.6% [12.1-21.2%]) decrease in 2021 at a global level. India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and China contributed the most to the global declines for both years, while sub-Saharan Africa achieved pre-pandemic levels by 2021 (OE ratio = 1.02 [0.99-1.05]). Age-stratified analyses revealed that the ≥ 65-year-old age group experienced greater relative declines in TB diagnoses compared with the under 65-year-old age group in 2020 (RR = 0.88 [0.81-0.96]) and 2021 (RR = 0.88 [0.79-0.98]) globally. Covariates found to be associated with all-age OE ratios in 2020 were age-standardized smoking prevalence in 2019 (β = 0.973 [0.957-990]), school closures (β = 0.988 [0.977-0.998]), stay-at-home orders (β = 0.993 [0.985-1.00]), SARS-CoV-2 infection rate (β = 0.991 [0.987-0.996]), and proportion of population ≥65 years (β = 0.971 [0.944-0.999]). Further research is needed to clarify the extent to which the observed declines in TB diagnoses were attributable to disruptions in health services, decreases in TB transmission, and COVID-19 mortality among TB patients.

Quality of routine data for monitoring nutrition and diarrhoea indicators of children under 5 in Mozambique: an ecological study over a 5-year period

BACKGROUND

Undernutrition and diarrhoea have a high burden in children under 5 in low/middle-income countries. Having data-driven quality health services for these two diseases is key in order to address the high burden of diseases; therefore, health systems must provide data to monitor, manage, plan and decide on policies at all levels of health services.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the quality of nutrition and diarrhoea routine data on children under 5 in Mozambique.

DESIGN

A longitudinal ecological study was implemented. Secondary data were used to assess the quality of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM), deworming and rotavirus vaccine indicators based on the data's completeness, presence of outliers and consistency, and seasonality analysis in the form of time series analysis was performed.

SETTING

We used monthly district-level count data from 2017 to 2021, from all health facilities, from the Mozambican health information system (Sistema de Informação de Saúde para Monitoria e Avaliação, or District Health Information System version 2).

RESULTS

The rotavirus vaccine indicators presented better completeness when compared with other indicators under analysis. Extreme outliers were observed for deworming and rotavirus vaccines, with a higher number of outliers in the Zambezia and Nampula Provinces. Better consistency over time was observed when analysing the period before the COVID-19 pandemic, for all of the indicators and across provinces. Indicators of MAM and MAM-recovered showed more consistency issues over time in both periods of 2017-2019 and 2018-2021. In terms of seasonality analysis, for the MAM and MAM-recovered indicators, lower variation was observed, and heterogeneous patterns were seen across provinces for the rotavirus vaccine, which had the most pronounced negative seasonality components in Maputo City.

CONCLUSION

Major deficits regarding the analysed quality indicators were observed for Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Tete, Manica, and Maputo City and Province.

What clinic closure reveals about care for drug-resistant TB: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

There have been calls for "person-centered" approaches to drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) care. In 2020, Charles James Hospital in South Africa, which incorporated person-centered care, was closed. Patients were referred mid-course to a centralized, tertiary hospital, providing an opportunity to examine person-centered DR-TB and HIV care from the perspective of patients who lost access to it.

METHODS

The impact of transfer was explored through qualitative interviews performed using standard methods. Analysis involved grounded theory; interviews were assessed for theme and content.

RESULTS

After switching to the centralized site, patients reported being unsatisfied with losing access to a single clinic and pharmacy where DR-TB, HIV and chronic disease care were integrated. Patients also reported a loss of care continuity; at the decentralized site there was a single, familiar clinician whereas the centralized site had multiple, changing clinicians and less satisfactory communication. Additionally, patients reported more disease-related stigma and less respectful treatment, noting the loss of a "special place" for DR-TB treatment.

CONCLUSION

By focusing on a DR-TB clinic closure, we uncovered aspects of person-centered care that were critical to people living with DR-TB and HIV. These perspectives can inform how care for DR-TB is operationalized to optimize treatment retention and effectiveness.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department attendances for pediatric injuries in Mozambique's central hospitals: an interrupted time series and a comparison within the restriction periods between 2019 and 2020

Objectives

Hospital-based studies indicate that restriction measures imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic have affected the number and characteristics of pediatric injuries. However, few studies have been conducted in resource-poor countries. This study aimed to determine whether injury-related emergency department (ED) attendances in Mozambique were affected during the restriction periods in 2020 and how the pattern of injury changed.

Methods

Mozambique faced two restriction periods in 2020. An interrupted time series was applied to weekly data of pediatric injuries from the ED records of four central hospitals in Mozambique in 2019 and 2020. Weekly numbers of injuries were modeled using a Poisson regression model to estimate the effect of COVID-19 restrictions on trends over calendar time. Then, for each restriction period, differences in injury mechanisms, severity, need for surgery, and intensive care unit (ICU) attendances were compared between 2019 and 2020.

Results

During the 76 weeks preceding the restrictions, there was a stable trend in ED attendances. The weekly number dropped by 48.7% after implementation of the first restrictions. By the end of 2020, the weekly numbers were back to the levels observed before the restrictions. Road traffic injuries (RTIs) and falls dropped during the first restriction period and RTIs and burns during the second. There was an increase of 80% in ICU attendances in all periods of 2020 at three hospitals during the first and second restriction periods.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 restrictions yielded a reduction in the weekly number of pediatric injuries seen at Mozambique's central hospitals, above all RTIs and falls. The drop reflects reductions in visits most importantly for RTIs, falls, and burns, but was accompanied by an increase in the proportion of ICU cases. This effect was not maintained when the restrictions were relaxed. Whether this reflects reduced exposure to injury or hesitancy to seek care remains to be determined.

Level of evidence

Level III, retrospective study with up to two negative criteria.

COVID-19 impacts on healthcare access in sub-Saharan Africa: an overview

This overview aimed to describe the situation of healthcare access in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic. A PubMed^® search from March 31, 2020, to August 15, 2022, selected 116 articles. Healthcare access and consequences of COVID-19 were assessed based on comparisons with months before its onset or an identical season in previous years. A general reduction of healthcare delivery, associated with the decline of care quality, and closure of many specialty services were reported. The impact was heterogeneous in space and time, with an increase in urban areas at the beginning of the pandemic (March-June 2020). The return to normalcy was gradual from the 3^rd quarter of 2020 until the end of 2021. The impact of COVID-19 on the health system and its use was attributed to (a) conjunctural factors resulting from government actions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic (containment, transportation restrictions, closures of businesses, and places of entertainment or worship); (b) structural factors related to the disruption of public and private facilities and institutions, in particular, the health system; and (c) individual factors linked to the increase in costs, impoverishment of the population, and fear of contamination or stigmatization, which discouraged patients from going to health centers. They have caused considerable socio-economic damage. Several studies emphasized some adaptability of the healthcare offer and resilience of the healthcare system, despite its unpreparedness, which explained a return to normal activities as early as 2022 while the COVID-19 epidemic persisted. There appears to be a strong disproportion between the moderate incidence and severity of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, and the dramatic impact on healthcare access. Several articles make recommendations for lowering the socioeconomic consequences of future epidemics to ensure better management of health issues.

[Impact of COVID-19 on public health in sub-Saharan Africa]

Objective

This work aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare supply in sub-Saharan Africa except South Africa.

Method

A search through PubMed® between April 2020 and August 2022 selected 135 articles. The impact of COVID-19 was assessed on comparisons with the months prior to the onset of COVID-19 or an identical season in previous years.

Results

The decline of health services, associated with a reduction in their quality, and the closure of specialized health units have been reported. Many control programs and public health interventions have been interrupted, with the risk of an increase of the corresponding diseases. Social disorganization has generated mental health issues among the population, including health personnel. The impact was heterogeneous in space and time. The main causes were attributed to containment measures (transport restrictions, trade closures) and the lack of human and material resources. The increase in costs, in addition to the impoverishment of the population, and the fear of being contaminated or stigmatized have discouraged patients from going to health centres. The studies mention the gradual return to normal after the first epidemic wave and the resilience of the healthcare system.

Conclusion

Several articles make recommendations aimed at reducing the impact of future epidemics: support for community workers, training of health workers and reorganization of services to improve the reception and care of patients, technological innovations (use of telephones, drones, etc.) and better information monitoring.

Early effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health service disruption in Mozambique

This article is part of the Research Topic 'Health Systems Recovery in the Context of COVID-19 and Protracted Conflict'.

Introduction

After the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, more than 184 million cases and 4 million deaths had been recorded worldwide by July 2021. These are likely to be underestimates and do not distinguish between direct and indirect deaths resulting from disruptions in health care services. The purpose of our research was to assess the early impact of COVID-19 in 2020 and early 2021 on maternal and child healthcare service delivery at the district level in Mozambique using routine health information system data, and estimate associated excess maternal and child deaths.

Methods

Using data from Mozambique's routine health information system (SISMA, Sistema de Informação em Saúde para Monitoria e Avaliação), we conducted a time-series analysis to assess changes in nine selected indicators representing the continuum of maternal and child health care service provision in 159 districts in Mozambique. The dataset was extracted as counts of services provided from January 2017 to March 2021. Descriptive statistics were used for district comparisons, and district-specific time-series plots were produced. We used absolute differences or ratios for comparisons between observed data and modeled predictions as a measure of the magnitude of loss in service provision. Mortality estimates were performed using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

Results

All maternal and child health care service indicators that we assessed demonstrated service delivery disruptions (below 10% of the expected counts), with the number of new users of family planing and malaria treatment with Coartem (number of children under five treated) experiencing the largest disruptions. Immediate losses were observed in April 2020 for all indicators, with the exception of treatment of malaria with Coartem. The number of excess deaths estimated in 2020 due to loss of health service delivery were 11,337 (12.8%) children under five, 5,705 (11.3%) neonates, and 387 (7.6%) mothers.

Conclusion

Findings from our study support existing research showing the negative impact of COVID-19 on maternal and child health services utilization in sub-Saharan Africa. This study offers subnational and granular estimates of service loss that can be useful for health system recovery planning. To our knowledge, it is the first study on the early impacts of COVID-19 on maternal and child health care service utilization conducted in an African Portuguese-speaking country.

Inequalities in the impact of COVID-19-associated disruptions on tuberculosis diagnosis by age and sex in 45 high TB burden countries

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis remains a major public health priority and is the second leading cause of mortality from infectious disease worldwide. TB case detection rates are unacceptably low for men, the elderly and children. Disruptions in TB services due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated these and other inequalities.

METHODS

We modelled trends in age- and sex- disaggregated case notifications for all forms of new and relapse TB reported to the World Health Organization for 45 high TB, TB/HIV and MDR-TB burden countries from 2013 to 2019. We compared trend predicted notifications to observed notifications in 2020 to estimate the number of people with TB likely to have missed or delayed diagnosis. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) of missed or delayed TB diagnosis for children (aged < 15 years) or the elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) compared to adults (aged 15-64 years) and women compared to men (both aged ≥ 15 years) using a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

An estimated 195,449 children (95% confidence interval, CI: 189,673-201,562, 37.8% of an expected 517,168), 1,126,133 adults (CI: 1,107,146-1,145,704, 21.8% of an expected 5,170,592) and 235,402 elderly (CI: 228,108-243,202, 28.5% of an expected 826,563) had a missed or delayed TB diagnosis in 2020. This included 511,546 women (CI: 499,623-523,869, 22.7%, of an expected 2,250,097) and 863,916 men (CI: 847,591-880,515, 23.0% of an expected 3,763,363). There was no evidence globally that the risk of having TB diagnosis missed or delayed was different for children and adults (RR: 1.09, CI: 0.41-2.91), the elderly and adults (RR: 1.40, CI: 0.62-3.16) or men and women (RR: 0.59, CI: 0.25-1.42). However, there was evidence of disparities in risk by age and/or sex in some WHO regions and in most countries.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence at an aggregate global level of any difference by age or sex in the risk of disruption to TB diagnosis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in many countries, disruptions in TB services have been greater for some groups than others. It is important to recognise these context-specific inequalities when prioritising key populations for catch-up campaigns.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Case Notification and Treatment Outcomes in Eswatini

Objectives: We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis (TB) case notification and treatment outcomes in Eswatini.

Methods: A comparative retrospective cohort study was conducted using TB data from eight facilities. An interrupted time series analysis, using segmented Poisson regression was done to assess the impact of COVID-19 on TB case notification comparing period before (December 2018-February 2020, n = 1,560) and during the pandemic (March 2020–May 2021, n = 840). Case notification was defined as number of TB cases registered in the TB treatment register. Treatment outcomes was result assigned to patients at the end of treatment according to WHO rules.

Results: There was a significant decrease in TB case notification (IRR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.60–0.83) and a significant increase in death rate among registrants during the pandemic (21.3%) compared to pre-pandemic (10.8%, p < 0.01). Logistic regression indicated higher odds of unfavorable outcomes (death, lost-to-follow-up, and not evaluated) during the pandemic than pre-pandemic (aOR 2.91, 95% CI: 2.17–3.89).

Conclusion: COVID-19 negatively impacted TB services in Eswatini. Eswatini should invest in strategies to safe-guard the health system against similar pandemics.

Impact of COVID-19 on Tuberculosis Indicators in Brazil: A Time Series and Spatial Analysis Study

Background: We aimed to visualize and classify the time series of COVID-19, tuberculosis (TB) notification, and TB outcomes (cure, treatment abandonment, and death), verify the impact of the new coronavirus pandemic on these indices in Brazil, and verify the presence of spatial autocorrelation between COVID-19 and TB. Methods: This was an ecological time series study that considered TB and COVID-19 cases. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) was used to trace the temporal trend, Prais–Winsten was used to classify the temporal trend, Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to verify the impact of COVID-19 on TB rates, and the Bivariate Moran Index (Global and Local) was used to verify the spatial autocorrelation of events. Results: Brazil and its macro-regions showed an increasing temporal trend for the notification of TB in the pre-pandemic period. Only the Northeast Region showed a decreasing temporal trend for cured cases. For treatment abandonment, all regions except for the Northeast showed an increasing temporal trend, and regarding death, Brazil and the Northeast Region showed an increasing temporal trend. With the ITS, COVID-19 caused a decline in TB notification rates and TB outcome rates. With the global spatial analysis, it was possible to identify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the notification rate of COVID-19 and the TB notification rate and deaths. With the local analysis, it was possible to map the Brazilian municipalities and classify them according to the relationship between the rates of both diseases and space. Conclusions: COVID-19 influenced the follow-up of and adherence to TB treatment and intensified social vulnerability and, consequently, affected the notification of TB since the relationship between the disease and social determinants of health is already known. The restoration and strengthening of essential services for the prevention and detection of cases and treatment of TB in endemic environments such as Brazil have been oriented as a priority in the global health agenda.