Association between population prevalence of smoking and incidence of meningococcal disease in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands between 1975 and 2009: a population-based time series analysis

Mapping local variation in household overcrowding across Africa from 2000 to 2018: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Household overcrowding is a serious public health threat associated with high morbidity and mortality. Rapid population growth and urbanisation contribute to overcrowding and poor sanitation in low-income and middle- income countries, and are risk factors for the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, and antimicrobial resistance. Many countries do not have adequate surveillance capacity to monitor household overcrowding. Geostatistical models are therefore useful tools for estimating household overcrowding. In this study, we aimed to estimate household overcrowding in Africa between 2000 and 2018 by combining available household survey data, population censuses, and other country-specific household surveys within a geostatistical framework.

METHODS

We used data from household surveys and population censuses to generate a Bayesian geostatistical model of household overcrowding in Africa for the 19-year period between 2000 and 2018. Additional sociodemographic and health-related covariates informed the model, which covered 54 African countries.

FINDINGS

We analysed 287 surveys and population censuses, covering 78 695 991 households. Spatial and temporal variability arose in household overcrowding estimates over time. In 2018, the highest overcrowding estimates were observed in the Horn of Africa region (median proportion 62% [IQR 57-63]); the lowest regional median proportion was estimated for the north of Africa region (16% [14-19]). Overall, 474·4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 250·1 million-740·7 million) people were estimated to be living in overcrowded conditions in Africa in 2018, a 62·7% increase from the estimated 291·5 million (180·8 million-417·3 million) people who lived in overcrowded conditions in the year 2000. 48·5% (229·9 million) of people living in overcrowded conditions came from six African countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya), with a combined population of 538·3 million people.

INTERPRETATION

This study incorporated survey and population censuses data and used geostatistical modelling to estimate continent-wide overcrowding over a 19-year period. Our analysis identified countries and areas with high numbers of people living in overcrowded conditions, thereby providing a benchmark for policy planning and the implementation of interventions such as in infectious disease control.

FUNDING

UK Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk Factors for Contracting Invasive Meningococcal Disease and Related Mortality: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To describe risk factors (RFs) and quantify their effects in invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) and associated mortality across all age groups based on the available published literature.

METHODS

A systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted via MEDLINE® and Embase. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two independent reviewers. Associations between RFs and outcomes were quantified via a meta-analysis (MA).

RESULTS

Seventy-four studies (date range 1950 - 2018) were included in the SLR. Statistically significant RFs for contracting IMD identified from the SLR (within-study) included previous IMD infection and young age (0 - 4 years). MA indicated that significant RFs for contracting IMD (11 studies) were: HIV-positive status, passive smoke exposure, and crowded living space. In the MA for IMD-related mortality risk (11 studies), age 25 - 45 years (vs. 0 - 5 years) and serogroup C (vs. serogroup B) were significantly associated with increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Previous findings of higher risk for IMD contraction with smoke exposure and crowded living conditions in children/adolescents have been extended by this SLR/MA to all age groups. We provide strong evidence for higher risk of IMD in HIV-positive individuals, and confirm previous findings of higher IMD-related mortality risk in adults aged 25 - 45.

Introducing the Disease Outbreak Resilience Index (DORI) Using the Demographic and Health Surveys Data from sub-Saharan Africa

Although most studies on disease emergencies underscore the need for household readiness for shocks associated with disease outbreaks, no study to date has provided a holistic measure for profiling households based on their readiness toward disease outbreaks. This paper introduces a novel Disease Outbreak Resilience Index (DORI) using a multidimensional approach that draws on the Alkire-Foster methodology. DORI measures disease outbreak resilience in four dimensions: (a) water and hygiene, (b) physical distancing, (c) energy and communication, and (d) economic security and resilience. The paper details the development of DORI and its use by presenting findings from ten countries in sub-Saharan Africa using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program. In addition to serving as a resilience index, we illustrate how DORI can be used to produce a disease outbreak vulnerability index (DOVI). As a versatile index, the indicators under each dimension can be tailored to meet country- and region-specific contexts based on indicators appropriate to each context.

Environmental burden of disease from unsafe and substandard housing, New Zealand, 2010-2017

Objective

To assess the burden of disease related to unsafe and substandard housing conditions in New Zealand from 2010 to 2017.

Methods

We focused on substandard housing conditions most relevant for New Zealand homes: crowding, cold, damp or mould, and injury hazards linked to falls. We estimated the population attributable fraction using existing estimates of the population exposed and exposure–response relationships of health disorders associated with each housing condition. We used government hospitalization data, no-fault accident insurance claims and mortality data to estimate the annual disease burden from the most severe cases, as well as the resulting costs to the public sector in New Zealand dollars (NZ$). Using value of a statistical life measures, we estimated the indirect cost of deaths.

Findings

We estimated that illnesses attributable to household crowding accounted for 806 nights in hospital annually; cold homes for 1834 hospital nights; and dampness and mould for 36 649 hospital nights. Home injury hazards resulted in 115 555 annual accident claims. We estimated that direct public sector costs attributable to these housing conditions were approximately NZ$ 141 million (100 million United States dollars, US$) annually. We also estimated a total of 229 deaths annually attributable to adverse housing and the costs to society from these deaths at around NZ$ 1 billion (US$ 715 million).

Conclusion

Of the conditions assessed in this study, damp and mouldy housing accounted for a substantial proportion of the burden of disease in New Zealand. Improving people’s living conditions could substantially reduce total hospitalization costs and potentially improve quality of life.

Multiple Linear Regression Model of Meningococcal Disease in Ukraine: 1992-2015

Estimating the rates of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) from epidemiologic data remains critical for making public health decisions. In Ukraine, such estimations have not been performed. We used epidemiological data to develop a national database. These data were used to estimate the population susceptible to IMD and identify the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers of N. meningitidis using simple epidemiological models of meningococcal disease that may be used by the national policy makers. The goal was to create simple, easily understood analysis of patterns of the infection within Ukraine that would capture the major features of the infection dynamics. Studies used nationally reported data during 1992–2015. A logic model identified the prevalence of carriage and the proportion of the population susceptible to IMD as key drivers of IMD incidence. Multiple linear regression models for all ages (total population) and for children ≤14 years old were fit to national-level data. Linear models with the incidence of IMD as an outcome were highly associated with carriage and estimated susceptible population in both total population and children (R² = 0.994 and R² = 0.978, respectively). The susceptibility rate to IMD in the study total population averaged 0.0034 ± 0.0009% annually. At the national level, IMD can be characterized by the simple interaction between the prevalence of asymptomatic carriage and the proportion of the susceptible population. IMD association with prevalence rates of carriage and the proportion of susceptible population is sufficiently strong for national-level planning of intervention strategies for IMD.

Diversity of meningococci associated with invasive meningococcal disease in the Republic of Ireland over a 19 year period, 1996-2015

This study examined the capsular phenotype and genotype of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD)-associated Neisseria meningitidis recovered in the Republic of Ireland (RoI) between 1996 and 2015. This time period encompasses both pre- (when IMD was hyperendemic in the RoI) and post- meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine introduction. In total, 1327 isolates representing over one-third of all laboratory-confirmed cases of IMD diagnosed each epidemiological year (EY), were characterised. Serogroups B (menB) and C (menC) predominated throughout, although their relative abundance changed; with an initial increase in the proportion of menC in the late 1990s followed by their dramatic reduction post-MCC vaccine implementation and a concomitant dominance of menB, despite an overall decline in IMD incidence. While the increase in menC was associated with expansion of specific clonal-complexes (cc), cc11 and cc8; the dominance of menB was not. There was considerable variation in menB-associated cc with declines in cc41/44 and cc32, and increases in cc269 and cc461, contributing to a significant increase in the clonal diversity of menB isolates over the study. This increase in diversity was also displayed among the serosubtyping data, with significant declines in proportions of menB isolates expressing p1.4 and p1.15 antigens. These data highlight the changing diversity of IMD-associated meningococci since 1996 in the RoI and emphasise the need for on-going surveillance particularly in view of the recent introduction of a menB vaccine.

Overcrowding and health in two impoverished suburbs of Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

Rapid urbanization, unmatched by an associated supply of housing, has resulted in overcrowding in the cities of many developing countries, including in Johannesburg, South Africa. Household overcrowding has been associated with a range of ill-health outcomes, including acute respiratory infections and diarrhoeal diseases. The aim of this study was to describe the levels of household crowding, and examine associations with respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms in selected two low-income neighbourhoods in Johannesburg.

Methods

Questionnaire data from a panel study conducted over an 11-year period between 2006 and 2016 were extracted to conduct the analyses. Structured questionnaires, designed to collect information on housing conditions, socio-economic and health status were administered to adult representatives of households occupying the primary dwelling on pre-selected study sites.

Results

Over the 11-year study period, levels of overcrowding remained unchanged. Around 57.6% of dwellings in the study neighbourhoods were determined to be overcrowded in relation to international guidelines. Results from the multiple logistic regression analyses indicated that crowded dwellings were associated with elevated levels of acute respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms, as well as fever/chills.

Conclusion

Respondent perceptions varied from objective measures of overcrowding. Crowded dwellings were associated with elevated reports of acute respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms, as well as fever/chills.

Predictors of smoking cessation: A longitudinal study in a large cohort of smokers

BACKGROUND

There are few studies on predictors of smoking cessation in general populations. We studied the smoking cessation rate in relation to several potential predictors, with special focus on respiratory and cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

Smokers (n = 4636) from seven centres in Northern Europe, born between 1945 and 1973, who answered a questionnaire in 1999-2001 (the RHINE study) were followed up with a new questionnaire in 2010-2012. Altogether 2564 answered the questionnaire and provided complete data on smoking. Cox regression analyses were performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

A total of 999 subjects (39%) stopped smoking during the study period. The smoking cessation rate was 44.9/1000 person-years. Smoking cessation was more common with increasing age, higher education and fewer years of smoking. Asthma, wheeze, hay fever, chronic bronchitis, diabetes and hypertension did not significantly predict smoking cessation, but smokers hospitalized for ischaemic heart disease during the study period were more prone to stopping smoking (HR 3.75 [2.62-5.37]).

CONCLUSIONS

Successful smoking cessation is common in middle-aged smokers, and is associated with few smoking years and higher education. A diagnosis of respiratory disease does not appear to motivate people to quit smoking, nor do known cardiovascular risk factors; however, an acute episode of ischaemic heart disease encouraged smoking cessation in our study population.

An OMV Vaccine Derived from a Capsular Group B Meningococcus with Constitutive FetA Expression: Preclinical Evaluation of Immunogenicity and Toxicity

Following the introduction of effective protein-polysaccharide conjugate vaccines against capsular group C meningococcal disease in Europe, meningococci of capsular group B remain a major cause of death and can result in debilitating sequelae. The outer membrane proteins PorA and FetA have previously been shown to induce bactericidal antibodies in humans. Despite considerable antigenic variation among PorA and FetA OMPs in meningococci, systematic molecular epidemiological studies revealed this variation is highly structured so that a limited repertoire of antigenic types is congruent with the hyperinvasive meningococcal lineages that have caused most of the meningococcal disease in Europe in recent decades. Here we describe the development of a prototype vaccine against capsular group B meningococcal infection based on a N. meningitidis isolate genetically engineered to have constitutive expression of the outer membrane protein FetA. Deoxycholate outer membrane vesicles (dOMVs) extracted from cells cultivated in modified Frantz medium contained 21.8% PorA protein, 7.7% FetA protein and 0.03 μg LPS per μg protein (3%). The antibody response to the vaccine was tested in three mouse strains and the toxicological profile of the vaccine was tested in New Zealand white rabbits. Administration of the vaccine, MenPF-1, when given by intramuscular injection on 4 occasions over a 9 week period, was well tolerated in rabbits up to 50 μg/dose, with no evidence of systemic toxicity. These data indicated that the MenPF-1 vaccine had a toxicological profile suitable for testing in a phase I clinical trial.

Epidemiology of bacterial meningitis in the USA from 1997 to 2010: a population-based observational study

BACKGROUND

Bacterial meningitis continues to be a substantial cause of morbidity and mortality, but the epidemiological trends after adjunctive dexamethasone recommendations are unknown in the USA. We aimed to describe the changing patterns among the most common bacterial causes in the USA after conjugate vaccination and to assess the association between adjunctive dexamethasone and mortality.

METHODS

For this population-based observational study, we searched information available from hospital discharges about incidence and inpatient mortality for the most important causes of community and nosocomial bacterial meningitis based on International Classification of Diseases coding across all hospitals in the USA between 1997 and 2010 with the HealthCare Cost Utilization Project (HCUP) network database. We calculated incidences according to US Census Bureau data and used a negative binomial regression model to evaluate the significance of changes over time. We assessed mortality from pneumococcus for three periods 1997-2001 (baseline), 2002-04 (transition years), and 2005-08 (after corticosteroid recommendations were available).

FINDINGS

Streptococcus pneumoniae incidence fell from 0·8 per 100 000 people in 1997, to 0·3 per 100 000 people by the end of 2010 (RR 0·3737, 95% CI 0·1825-0·7656). Mortality from pneumococcal meningitis decreased between 2005 (0·049 per 100 000 people) and 2008 (0·024 per 100 000 people) compared with between 2002 (0·073 per 100 000 people) and 2004 (0·063 per 100 000 people; RR 0·5720, 95% CI 0·4303-0·7582). The incidence of Neisseria meningitidis infection decreased from 0·721 per 100 000 people in 1997, to 0·123 per 100 000 people in 2010 (RR 0·1386, 95% CI 0·048-0·4284), which has placed this pathogen close to common bacterial causes of nosocomial meningitis such as staphylococcus and Gram-negative bacteria and to Haemophilus influenzae.

INTERPRETATION

S pneumoniae continues to be the leading identifiable cause of bacterial meningitis in the USA, but with a significant decrease in incidence and mortality associated with the introduction of conjugated vaccines and a mortality decrease that is associated with the introduction of recommendations for use of adjunctive dexamethasone for pneumococcal meningitis.

FUNDING

National Center for Research Resources.