Development and validation of two clinical prediction models to inform clinical decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery for degenerative disorders and rehabilitation following surgery: protocol for a prospective observational study

Predictors of poor outcome following lumbar spinal fusion surgery: a prospective observational study to derive two clinical prediction rules using British Spine Registry data

PURPOSE

Lumbar spinal fusion surgery (LSFS) is common for lumbar degenerative disorders. The objective was to develop clinical prediction rules to identify which patients are likely to have a favourable outcome to inform decisions regarding surgery and rehabilitation.

METHODS

A prospective observational study recruited 600 (derivation) and 600 (internal validation) consecutive adult patients undergoing LSFS for degenerative lumbar disorder through the British Spine Registry. Definition of good outcome (6 weeks, 12 months) was reduction in pain intensity (Numerical Rating Scale, 0-10) and disability (Oswestry Disability Index, ODI 0-50) > 1.7 and 14.3, respectively. Linear and logistic regression models were fitted and regression coefficients, Odds ratios and 95% CIs reported.

RESULTS

Lower BMI, higher ODI and higher leg pain pre-operatively were predictive of good disability outcome, higher back pain was predictive of good back pain outcome, and no previous surgery and higher leg pain were predictive of good leg pain outcome; all at 6 weeks. Working and higher leg pain were predictive of good ODI and leg pain outcomes, higher back pain was predictive of good back pain outcome, and higher leg pain was predictive of good leg pain outcome at 12 months. Model performance demonstrated reasonable to good calibration and adequate/very good discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

BMI, ODI, leg and back pain and previous surgery are important considerations pre-operatively to inform decisions for surgery. Pre-operative leg and back pain and work status are important considerations to inform decisions for management following surgery. Findings may inform clinical decision making regarding LSFS and associated rehabilitation.

C-reactive protein to lymphocyte ratio as a new biomarker in predicting surgical site infection after posterior lumbar interbody fusion and instrumentation

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the potential of C-reactive protein to lymphocyte count ratio (CLR) for the prediction of surgical site infection (SSI) following posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) and the instrumentation of lumbar degenerative diseases.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we considered patients with a lumbar degenerative disease diagnosis surgically treated by the instrumented PLIF procedure from 2015 to 2021. Patient data, including postoperative early SSI and other perioperative variables, were collected from their respective hospitalization electronic medical records. The receiver operator characteristic curve was constructed to determine the optimal cut-off value for CLR, and the ability to predict SSI was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC). According to the cut-off value, patients were dichotomized with high- or low-CLR, and between-group differences were compared using univariate analysis. The independent impact of CLR on predicting SSI was investigated by multivariate logistics regression analysis.

Results

A total of 773 patients were included, with 26 (3.4%) developing an early SSI post-operation. The preoperative CLR was 11.1 ± 26.1 (interquartile range, 0.4–7.5), and the optimal cut-off was 2.1, corresponding to a sensitivity of 0.856, a specificity of 0.643, and an AUC of 0.768 (95% CI, 0.737–0.797). CLR demonstrated a significantly improved prediction ability than did lymphocyte count (P = 0.021) and a similar ability to predict an infection as C-response protein (P = 0.444). Patients with a high CLR had a significantly higher SSI incidence than those with a low CLR (7.6% vs. 0.8%, P < 0.001). After adjustment for numerous confounding factors, CLR ≥ 2.1 was associated with an 11.16-fold increased risk of SSI, along with other significant variables, i.e., diabetes, preoperative waiting time, and surgical duration.

Conclusion

A high CLR exhibited an improved ability to predict incident SSI and was associated with a substantially increased risk of SSI following instrumented PLIF. After better-design studies verified this finding, CLR could potentially be a beneficial tool in surgical management.

C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) in predicting surgical site infection (SSI) following instrumented posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF)

Identification of novel markers would contribute to the individualised risk assessment and development of a risk prediction model. This study aimed to investigate the role of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) in predicting surgical site infection (SSI) following instrumented posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) of lumbar degenerative diseases. This study enrolled patients who underwent PLIF and instrumentation for treatment of lumbar degenerative diseases between 2015 and 2020. Electronic medical records were inquired for data collection, with follow-up register for identifying SSI cases. The optimal cut-off for CAR was determined by constructing the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Patients with high- or low-CAR value were compared using the univariate analyses, and the association between CAR and the risk of SSI was investigated using multivariate logistics regression analysis. A total of 905 patients were enrolled, twenty-nine (3.2%) had developed an SSI with 72.4% occurring during index hospitalisation, and 11 (1.2%) had deep and 18 (2.0%) superficial SSIs. An SSI was associated with additional 10.7 days of index total hospital stay (P = .001). The CAR was 0-5.43 (median, 0.05), and the optimal cut-off was 0.09 and area under the curve was 0.720 (P < .001). 336 (37.1%) patients had a CAR ≥0.09 and 22 (6.5%) developed an SSI, with a crude risk of 5.6 relative to those with a low CAR. The multivariate analyses showed CAR ≥0.09 was associated with 8.06-fold increased risk of SSI, together with diabetes (P = .018), while hypertension was identified as a protective factor (OR, 0.34; 95%CI, 0.11-1.00, P = .049). High CAR is found to significantly predict the incident SSI following instrumented PLIF of lumbar degenerative diseases, and can be considered as a useful index in practice only after it is verified by future high-level evidences.

Development and validation of a clinical diagnostic model for pregnant women with renal colic in the emergency department in China: a protocol for a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Urolithiasis affects many people throughout their lives. Among the maternal population, although the morbidity of acute urolithiasis in pregnant women is unremarkable, it is the leading cause of hospitalisation during pregnancy. There is no effective clinical diagnostic tool to help doctors diagnose diseases. Our primary aim was to develop and validate a clinical prediction model based on statistical methods to predict the probability of having disease in pregnant women who visited the emergency department because of urolithiasis-induced colic.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will use multivariate logistic regression analysis to build a multivariate regression linear model. A receiver operating characteristic curve plot and calibration plot will be used to measure the discrimination value and calibration value of the model, respectively. We will also use least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis combined with logistic regression analysis to select predictors and construct the multivariate regression model. The model will be simplified to an application that has been reported before, and users will only need to enter their clinical parameters so that risk probability is automatically derived.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The review and approval documents of the clinical research ethics committee have been received from the ethics committee of our hospital (The Third Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University). We will disseminate research findings through presentations at scientific conferences and publication in peer-reviewed journals.

The Expanding Frontier of Outpatient Spine Surgery

BACKGROUND

In 2014, inpatient spinal fusion surgery had the highest aggregate cost of any inpatient surgery performed in the United States, costing 12 billion dollars. As the national health care system seeks to improve value-based care, there is increased motivation to perform surgery on an outpatient basis. To ensure improved patient outcomes with this transition, patient selection has become increasingly important to identify who would most benefit from outpatient spine fusion, for example. This demands an improved understanding of the demographics of patients who have been receiving outpatient spine fusion on which the spine surgery community can build to improve cost-effective care delivered.

METHODS

The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, State Ambulatory Surgery Databases, and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality databases were queried for demographic data regarding all-cause outpatient spine surgery between 2012 and 2014. Outpatient surgery volume was compared with inpatient surgery volume-which was provided by the State Inpatient Databases.

RESULTS

A total of 1,164,040 spine fusion procedures were identified between 2012 and 2014, of which 132,900 procedures were performed as outpatient surgery (11.4%). Of all fusion procedures amongst 18- to 44-year-old patients, 18.4% were outpatient. A larger proportion of white patients, rather than black or Hispanic patients, underwent ambulatory procedures (12.14% vs 9.53% vs 7.46%, respectively); 16.54% of spinal fusion procedures for patients with private insurance was performed on an outpatient basis. Based on patient income, 76% of all outpatient fusions were performed on patients who live in "not low" income ZIP codes.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a gradual trend toward performing more outpatient spinal fusion procedures over the studied period. This study has also revealed unique trends in the demographics of patients who have received outpatient spine fusion during this time.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3.

Risk-stratified and stepped models of care for back pain and osteoarthritis: are we heading towards a common model?

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Substantial overlap between interventions and models of care for osteoarthritis and low back pain suggests potential for one common model, which may facilitate implementation.

The overall quality of care for musculoskeletal pain conditions is suboptimal, partly due to a considerable evidence-practice gap. In osteoarthritis and low back pain, structured models of care exist to help overcome that challenge. In osteoarthritis, focus is on stepped care models, where treatment decisions are guided by response to treatment, and increasingly comprehensive interventions are only offered to people with inadequate response to more simple care. In low back pain, the most widely known approach is based on risk stratification, where patients with higher predicted risk of poor outcome are offered more comprehensive care. For both conditions, the recommended interventions and models of care share many commonalities and there is no evidence that one model of care is more effective than the other. Limitations of existing models of care include a lack of integrated information on social factors, comorbid conditions, and previous treatment experience, and they do not support an interplay between health care, self-management, and community-based activities. Moving forwards, a common model across musculoskeletal conditions seems realistic, which points to an opportunity for reducing the complexity of implementation. We foresee this development will use big data sources and machine-learning methods to combine stepped and risk-stratified care and to integrate self-management support and patient-centred care to a greater extent in future models of care.

Predicting Patient-Centered Outcomes from Spine Surgery Using Risk Assessment Tools: a Systematic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this systematic review is to evaluate the current literature in patients undergoing spine surgery in the cervical, thoracic, and lumbar spine to determine the available risk assessment tools to predict the patient-centered outcomes of pain, disability, physical function, quality of life, psychological disposition, and return to work after surgery.

RECENT FINDINGS

Risk assessment tools can assist surgeons and other healthcare providers in identifying the benefit-risk ratio of surgical candidates. These tools gather demographic, medical history, and other pertinent patient-reported measures to calculate a probability utilizing regression or machine learning statistical foundations. Currently, much is still unknown about the use of these tools to predict quality of life, disability, and other factors following spine surgery. A systematic review was conducted using PRISMA guidelines that identified risk assessment tools that utilized patient-reported outcome measures as part of the calculation. From 8128 identified studies, 13 articles met inclusion criteria and were accepted into this review. The range of c-index values reported in the studies was between 0.63 and 0.84, indicating fair to excellent model performance. Post-surgical patient-reported outcomes were identified in the following categories (n = total number of predictive models): return to work (n = 3), pain (n = 9), physical functioning and disability (n = 5), quality of life (QOL) (n = 6), and psychosocial disposition (n = 2). Our review has synthesized the available evidence on risk assessment tools for predicting patient-centered outcomes in patients undergoing spine surgery and described their findings and clinical utility.

Development of screening tools to predict the risk of recurrence and related complications following anal fistula surgery: protocol for a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative recurrence and related complications are common and related to poor outcomes in patients with anal fistula (AF). Due to being associated with short-term and long-term cure rates, perioperative complications have received widespread attention following AF surgery. This study aims to identify a set of predictive factors to develop risk prediction models for recurrence and related complications following AF surgery. We plan to develop and validate risk prediction models, using information collected through a WeChat patient-reported questionnaire system combined with clinical, laboratory and imaging findings from the perioperative period until 3-6 months following AF surgery.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a prospective hospital-based cohort study using a linked database of collected health data as well as the follow-up outcomes for all adult patients who suffered from AF at a tertiary referral hospital in Shanghai, China. We will perform logistic regression models to predict anal fistula recurrence (AFR) as well as related complications (eg, wound haemorrhage, faecal impaction, urinary retention, delayed wound healing and unplanned hospitalisation) during and after AF surgery, and machine learning approaches will also be applied to develop risk prediction models. This prospective study aims to develop the first risk prediction models for AFR and related complications using multidimensional variables. These tools can be used to warn, motivate and empower patients to avoid some modifiable risk factors to prevent postoperative complications early. This study will also provide alternative tools for the early screening of high-risk patients with AFR and related complications, helping surgeons better understand the aetiology and outcomes of AF in an earlier stage.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Shuguang Hospital affiliated with Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine (approval number: 2019-699-54-01). The results of this study will be submitted to international scientific peer-reviewed journals or conferences in surgery, anorectal surgery or anorectal diseases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR1900025069; Pre-results.

Cross-cultural adaptation and validity of the Spanish fear-avoidance components scale and clinical implications in primary care

BACKGROUND

Pain-related fear-avoidance (FA) is a common problem affecting many patients with painful medical conditions. As there is great interest in the clinical importance of the relationship between FA and disability, several questionnaires have been developed to measure FA. The Fear-Avoidance Components Scale (FACS) is a recently developed patient-reported instrument that addresses critical issues not previously considered in previous FA-related questionnaires. The original English version of the FACS demonstrated good reliability, internal consistency, and construct, criterion, and predictive validity. Two factors were determined: General Fear Avoidance and Types of Activities That are Avoided. The aim of this study was to to translate the FACS into European-style Spanish (FACS-Sp), and validate its psychometric properties.

METHODS

This two-stage psychometric study included 330 subjects with various chronic musculoskeletal pain disorders. An initial translation and cross-cultural adaptation of the FACS, from English to Spanish, was performed. Then, critical psychometric properties were analysed, including internal consistency by Cronbach's α coefficients, structural validity from the Maximum Likelihood Extraction (MLE), and convergent validity by Pearson correlation with the Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI).

RESULTS

This study reports for the first time the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the FACS. Total scores ranged from 0 to 88 points, with a mean of 30.49 (±17.18). The FACS-Sp showed a high internal consistency for factor 1 (α = 0.902) and factor 2 (α = 0.88). Factor structure was two-dimensional and supported structural validity, accounting for 48.75% of the total variance. Convergent validity analysis found a significant Pearson correlation r = 0.414.

CONCLUSION

This study reports for the first time the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the FACS-Sp. Psychometric properties supported the validation of FACS-Sp and ensured the conceptual equivalence with the original English version. In primary care and chronic pain rehabilitation, FA assessment is crucial for clinical decision-making and treatment guidance. The FACS-Sp offers a new measure of FA in Spanish speaking populations. Future research on the FACS-Sp should evaluate test-retest reliability, treatment responsiveness and psychometric comparisons with other translated versions.

Cross-cultural adaptation and validity of the Spanish fear-avoidance components scale and clinical implications in primary care

BACKGROUND

Pain-related fear-avoidance (FA) is a common problem affecting many patients with painful medical conditions. As there is great interest in the clinical importance of the relationship between FA and disability, several questionnaires have been developed to measure FA. The Fear-Avoidance Components Scale (FACS) is a recently developed patient-reported instrument that addresses critical issues not previously considered in previous FA-related questionnaires. The original English version of the FACS demonstrated good reliability, internal consistency, and construct, criterion, and predictive validity. Two factors were determined: General Fear Avoidance and Types of Activities That are Avoided. The aim of this study was to to translate the FACS into European-style Spanish (FACS-Sp), and validate its psychometric properties.

METHODS

This two-stage psychometric study included 330 subjects with various chronic musculoskeletal pain disorders. An initial translation and cross-cultural adaptation of the FACS, from English to Spanish, was performed. Then, critical psychometric properties were analysed, including internal consistency by Cronbach's α coefficients, structural validity from the Maximum Likelihood Extraction (MLE), and convergent validity by Pearson correlation with the Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI).

RESULTS

This study reports for the first time the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the FACS. Total scores ranged from 0 to 88 points, with a mean of 30.49 (±17.18). The FACS-Sp showed a high internal consistency for factor 1 (α = 0.902) and factor 2 (α = 0.88). Factor structure was two-dimensional and supported structural validity, accounting for 48.75% of the total variance. Convergent validity analysis found a significant Pearson correlation r = 0.414.

CONCLUSION

This study reports for the first time the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the FACS-Sp. Psychometric properties supported the validation of FACS-Sp and ensured the conceptual equivalence with the original English version. In primary care and chronic pain rehabilitation, FA assessment is crucial for clinical decision-making and treatment guidance. The FACS-Sp offers a new measure of FA in Spanish speaking populations. Future research on the FACS-Sp should evaluate test-retest reliability, treatment responsiveness and psychometric comparisons with other translated versions.