Characterising the costs of the Global Polio Laboratory Network: a survey-based analysis

Prevalence of Non-Polio Enteroviruses in the Sewage of Guangzhou City, China, from 2013 to 2021

Continuous surveillance of enteroviruses (EVs) in urban domestic sewage can timely reflect the circulation of EVs in the environment and crowds, and play a predictive and early warning role in EV-related diseases. To better understand the long-term epidemiological trends of circulating EVs and EV-related diseases, we conducted a 9-year (2013 to 2021) surveillance study of non-polio EVs (NPEVs) in urban sewage in Guangzhou city, China. After concentrating and isolating the viruses from the sewage samples, NPEVs were detected and molecular typing was performed. Twenty-one different NPEV serotypes were identified. The most isolated EVs were echovirus 11 (E11), followed by coxsackievirus (CV) B5, E6, and CVB3. EV species B prevailed in sewage samples, but variations in the annual frequency of different serotypes were also observed in different seasons, due to spatial and temporal factors. E11 and E6 were detected continuously before 2017, and the number of isolates was relatively stable during the surveillance period. However, after their explosive growth in 2018 and 2019, their numbers suddenly decreased significantly. CVB3 and CVB5 had alternating trends; CVB5 was most frequently detected in 2013 to 2014 and 2017 to 2018, while CVB3 was most frequently detected in 2015 to 2016 and 2020 to 2021. Phylogenetic analysis showed that at least two different transmission chains of CVB3 and CVB5 were prevalent in Guangzhou City. Our results show that in the absence of a comprehensive and systematic EV-related disease surveillance system in China, environmental surveillance is a powerful and effective tool to strengthen and further investigate the invisible transmission of EVs in the population. IMPORTANCE This study surveilled urban sewage samples from north China for 9 years to monitor enteroviruses. Samples were collected, processed, and viral identification and molecular typing were performed. We detected 21 different non-polio enteroviruses (NPEVs) with yearly variations in prevalence and peak seasons. In addition, this study is very important for understanding the epidemiology of EVs during the COVID-19 pandemic, as the detection frequency and serotypes of EVs in sewage changed considerably around 2020. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature because our results strongly suggest that environmental surveillance is an exceptionally important tool, which can be employed to detect and monitor organisms of public health concern, which would otherwise be missed and under-reported by case-based surveillance systems alone.

Polio by the Numbers - A Global Perspective

BACKGROUND

Investments in national immunization programs and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) have resulted in substantial reductions in paralytic polio worldwide. However, cases prevented because of investments in immunization programs and GPEI remain incompletely characterized.

METHODS

Using a global model that integrates polio transmission, immunity, and vaccine dynamics, we provide estimates of polio incidence and numbers of paralytic cases prevented. We compare the results with reported cases and estimates historically published by the World Health Organization.

RESULTS

We estimate that the existence and use of polio vaccines prevented 5 million cases of paralytic polio between 1960-1987 and 24 million cases worldwide for 1988-2021 compared to a counterfactual world with no polio vaccines. Since the 1988 resolution to eradicate polio, our estimates suggest GPEI prevented 2.5 to 6 million cases of paralytic polio compared to counterfactual worlds without GPEI that assume different levels of intensity of polio vaccine use in routine immunization programs.

DISCUSSION

Analysis of historical cases provides important context for understanding and communicating the benefits of investments made in polio eradication. Prospective studies will need to explore the expected benefits of future investments, the outcomes of which will depend on whether and when polio is globally eradicated.

Polio health economics: assessing the benefits and costs of polio, non-polio, and integrated activities of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

Background: Investments made by countries and donors to support polio eradication and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) over the past 35 years provided financial support for significant health interventions beyond the prevention of polio. Prior economic analyses that sought to quantify the economic benefits of some interventions encountered insufficient data and evidence associated with non-polio-specific activities. The 2022-2026 GPEI Strategic Plan explicitly identified integration and gender equity as funded mandates that must move forward in parallel with polio eradication, but these goals remain vaguely defined from a health economic perspective. Methods: To ensure unambiguous and full accounting for all financial investments in the GPEI, polio eradication, and other desirable objectives, we identify the health economic analysis methods and inputs needed to ensure transparent financial accountability and cost-effective use of funds. Results: Sufficient inputs and methods exist to characterize the health and economic benefits of polio-specific activities, but we identified the need for additional information and method development for some non-polio-specific and cost-sharing activities. Donors who seek to support non-polio-specific objectives as part of the GPEI may want to provide dedicated support financing for which it may be difficult to apply typical health economic criteria and to expect net health and/or net economic benefits. Conclusions: Given the mixture of funding sources provided to the GPEI, which includes support by governments and private donors, we recommend that the GPEI separately account for financial needs that represent necessities for polio eradication from those used for other stated objectives. An added layer of specificity that identifies all funds according to each activity, the accountable party and/or parties, and the associated measurable health or other outcome(s), will enable improved health economic analyses and reporting to donors who seek to track returns on their investments.

Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023

Background

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Strategic Plan for 2019-2023 includes commitments to monitor the quality of immunization campaigns using lot quality assurance sampling surveys (LQAS) and to support poliovirus surveillance in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Methods

We analyzed LQAS and poliovirus surveillance data between 2016 and 2020, which included both acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) case-based detection and the continued expansion of environmental surveillance (ES). Using updated estimates for unit costs, we explore the costs of different options for future poliovirus monitoring and surveillance for Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Results

The relative value of the information provided by campaign quality monitoring and surveillance remains uncertain and depends on the design, implementation, and performance of the systems. Prospective immunization campaign quality monitoring (through LQAS) and poliovirus surveillance will require tens of millions of dollars each year for the foreseeable future for Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Conclusions

LQAS campaign monitoring as currently implemented in Pakistan and Afghanistan provides limited and potentially misleading information about immunization quality. AFP surveillance in Pakistan and Afghanistan provides the most reliable evidence of transmission, whereas ES provides valuable supplementary information about the extent of transmission in the catchment areas represented at the time of sample collection.

Disease Surveillance Investments and Administration: Limits to Information Value in Pakistan Polio Eradication

In Pakistan, annual poliovirus investment decisions drive quantities of supplemental immunization campaigns districts receive. In this article, we assess whether increased spending on poliovirus surveillance is associated with greater likelihood of correctly identifying districts at high risk of polio with assignment of an elevated "risk ranking." We reviewed programmatic documents from Pakistan for the period from 2012-2017, recording whether districts had been classified as "high risk" or "low risk" in each year. Through document review, we developed a decision tree to describe the ranking decisions. Then, integrating data from the World Health Organization and Global Polio Eradication Initiative, we constructed a Bayesian decision network reflecting investments in polio surveillance and immunization campaigns, surveillance metrics, disease incidence, immunization rates, and occurrence of polio cases. We test these factors for statistical association with the outcome of interest-a change in risk rank between the beginning and the end of the one-year time period. We simulate different spending scenarios and predict their impact on district risk ranking in future time periods. We find that per district spending increases are associated with increased identification of cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). However, the low specificity of AFP investment and the largely invariant ranking of district risk means that even large increases in surveillance spending are unlikely to promote major changes in risk rankings at the current stage of the Pakistan polio eradication campaign.

Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners engaged modelers during the past nearly 20 years to support strategy and policy discussions and decisions, and to provide estimates of the risks, costs, and benefits of different options for managing the polio endgame. Limited efforts to date provided insights related to the validation of the models used for GPEI strategy and policy decisions. However, modeling results only influenced decisions in some cases, with other factors carrying more weight in many key decisions. In addition, the results from multiple modeling groups do not always agree, which supports selection of some strategies and/or policies counter to the recommendations from some modelers but not others. This analysis reflects on our modeling, and summarizes our premises and recommendations, the outcomes of these recommendations, and the implications of key limitations of models with respect to polio endgame strategy. We briefly review the current state of the GPEI given epidemiological experience as of early 2020, which includes failure of the GPEI to deliver on the objectives of its 2013-2018 strategic plan despite full financial support. Looking ahead, we provide context for why the GPEI strategy of global oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to end all cases of poliomyelitis looks infeasible given the current state of the GPEI and the failure to successfully stop all transmission of serotype 2 live polioviruses within four years of the April-May 2016 coordinated cessation of serotype 2 OPV use in routine immunization.

Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication

INTRODUCTION

Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

AREAS COVERED

This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

EXPERT OPINION

Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation

Surveillance for poliovirus during the polio endgame remains uncertain. Building on prior modeling of the potential for undetected poliovirus transmission for conditions like those in Pakistan and Afghanistan, we use a hypothetical model to explore several key characteristics of the poliovirus environmental surveillance (ES) system (e.g., number and quality of sites, catchment sizes, and sampling frequency) and characterize their impacts on the time required to reach high (i.e., 95%) confidence about no circulation (CNC95%) following the last detected case of serotype 1 wild poliovirus. The nature and quality of the existing and future acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance and ES system significantly impact the estimated CNC95% for places like Pakistan and Afghanistan. The analysis illustrates the tradeoffs between number of sites, sampling frequency, and catchments sizes, and suggests diminishing returns of increasing these three factors beyond a point that depends on site quality and the location of sites. Limitations in data quality and the hypothetical nature of the model reduce the ability to assess the extent to which actual ES systems offer benefits that exceed their costs. Thus, although poliovirus ES may help to reduce the time required to reach high confidence about the absence of undetected circulation, the effect strongly depends on the ability to establish effective ES sites in high-risk areas. The costs and benefits of ES require further analysis.