Trends in malaria prevalence and health related socioeconomic inequality in rural western Kenya: results from repeated household malaria cross-sectional surveys from 2006 to 2013

Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries

Deforestation, landscape dynamics, and socioeconomic factors within the tropical Americas, Africa, and Asia may have different impacts on malaria incidence. To evaluate how these drivers affect malaria incidence at the global and regional scale, we collected malaria incidence rates from 2000 to 2019 from 67 tropical countries, along with forest loss, land use change types, and socioeconomic elements. LASSO regression, linear mixed effect modeling, and k-fold cross validation were used to create and evaluate the models. Regionality plays a role in the significance of varying risk factors. The Tropical Americas model had the highest coefficient of determination (marginal R2 = 0.369), while the Africa model showed the highest predictive accuracy with only a 17.4% error rate. Strong associations between tree cover loss (β = -4037.73, p < 0.001) and percentage forest area (β = 5373.18, p = 0.012) in Africa, and percent of key biodiversity areas under protection (β = 496.71, p < 0.001; β = 1679.20, p < 0.001) in the tropical Americas and Asia with malaria incidence indicates that malaria risk should be considered during conservation policy development, and recommends that individual approaches to policy and investment be considered when implementing malaria interventions on different spatial scales.

Impact of 1,7-malaria reactive community-based testing and response (1,7-mRCTR) approach on malaria prevalence in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Progress in malaria control has stalled in recent years and innovative surveillance and response approaches are needed to accelerate malaria control and elimination efforts in endemic areas of Africa. Building on a previous China-UK-Tanzania pilot study on malaria control, this study aimed to assess the impact of the 1,7-malaria Reactive Community-Based Testing and Response (1,7-mRCTR) approach implemented over two years in three districts of Tanzania.

METHODS

The 1,7-mRCTR approach provides community-based malaria testing via rapid diagnostic tests and treatment in villages with the highest burden of malaria incidence based on surveillance data from health facilities. We used a difference-in-differences quasi-experimental design with linear probability models and two waves of cross-sectional household surveys to assess the impact of 1,7-mRCTR on malaria prevalence. We conducted sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our results, examined how intervention effects varied in subgroups, and explored alternative explanations for the observed results.

RESULTS

Between October 2019 and September 2021, 244,771 community-based malaria rapid tests were completed in intervention areas, and each intervention village received an average of 3.85 rounds of 1-7mRCTR. Malaria prevalence declined from 27.4% at baseline to 11.7% at endline in the intervention areas and from 26.0% to 16.0% in the control areas. 1,7-mRCTR was associated with a 4.5-percentage-point decrease in malaria prevalence (95% confidence interval: - 0.067, - 0.023), equivalent to a 17% reduction from the baseline. In Rufiji, a district characterized by lower prevalence and where larviciding was additionally provided, 1,7-mRCTR was associated with a 63.9% decline in malaria prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

The 1,7-mRCTR approach reduced malaria prevalence. Despite implementation interruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain challenges, the study provided novel evidence on the effectiveness of community-based reactive approaches in moderate- to high-endemicity areas and demonstrated the potential of South-South cooperation in tackling global health challenges.

A comparison of the attractiveness of flowering plant blossoms versus attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) in western Kenya

Attractive Targeted Sugar Baits (ATSB) have been demonstrated to result in significant reductions in malaria vector numbers in areas of scarce vegetation cover such as in Mali and Israel, but it is not clear whether such an effect can be replicated in environments where mosquitoes have a wide range of options for sugar resources. The current study evaluated the attractiveness of the predominant flowering plants of Asembo Siaya County, western Kenya in comparison to an ATSB developed by Westham Co. Sixteen of the most common flowering plants in the study area were selected and evaluated for relative attractiveness to malaria vectors in semi-field structures. Six of the most attractive flowers were compared to determine the most attractive to local Anopheles mosquitoes. The most attractive plant was then compared to different versions of ATSB. In total, 56,600 Anopheles mosquitoes were released in the semi-field structures. From these, 5150 mosquitoes (2621 males and 2529 females) of An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. gambiae were recaptured on the attractancy traps. Mangifera indica was the most attractive sugar source for all three species while Hyptis suaveolens and Tephrosia vogelii were the least attractive plants to the mosquitoes. Overall, ATSB version 1.2 was significantly more attractive compared to both ATSB version 1.1 and Mangifera indica. Mosquitoes were differentially attracted to various natural plants in western Kenya and ATSB. The observation that ATSB v1.2 was more attractive to local Anopheles mosquitoes than the most attractive natural sugar source indicates that this product may be able to compete with natural sugar sources in western Kenya and suggests this product may have the potential to impact mosquito populations in the field.

Public health determinants of child malaria mortality: a surveillance study within Siaya County, Western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Malaria deaths among children have been declining worldwide during the last two decades. Despite preventive, epidemiologic and therapy-development work, mortality rate decline has stagnated in western Kenya resulting in persistently high child malaria morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to identify public health determinants influencing the high burden of malaria deaths among children in this region.

METHODS

A total of 221,929 children, 111,488 females and 110,441 males, under the age of 5 years were enrolled in the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Center for Disease Control Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KEMRI/CDC HDSS) study area in Siaya County during the period 2003-2013. Cause of death was determined by use of verbal autopsy. Age-specific mortality rates were computed, and cox proportional hazard regression was used to model time to malaria death controlling for the socio-demographic factors. A variety of demographic, social and epidemiologic factors were examined.

RESULTS

In total 8,696 (3.9%) children died during the study period. Malaria was the most prevalent cause of death and constituted 33.2% of all causes of death, followed by acute respiratory infections (26.7%) and HIV/AIDS related deaths (18.6%). There was a marked decrease in overall mortality rate from 2003 to 2013, except for a spike in the rates in 2008. The hazard of death differed between age groups with the youngest having the highest hazard of death HR 6.07 (95% CI 5.10-7.22). Overall, the risk attenuated with age and mortality risks were limited beyond 4 years of age. Longer distance to healthcare HR of 1.44 (95% CI 1.29-1.60), l ow maternal education HR 3.91 (95% CI 1.86-8.22), and low socioeconomic status HR 1.44 (95% CI 1.26-1.64) were all significantly associated with increased hazard of malaria death among children.

CONCLUSIONS

While child mortality due to malaria in the study area in Western Kenya, has been decreasing, a final step toward significant risk reduction is yet to be accomplished. This study highlights residual proximal determinants of risk which can further inform preventive actions.

Altitude, not potential larval habitat availability, explains pronounced variation in Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in the western Kenya highlands

Progress in malaria control has stalled over the recent years. Knowledge on main drivers of transmission explaining small-scale variation in prevalence can inform targeted control measures. We collected finger-prick blood samples from 3061 individuals irrespective of clinical symptoms in 20 clusters in Busia in western Kenya and screened for Plasmodium falciparum parasites using qPCR and microscopy. Clusters spanned an altitude range of 207 meters (1077-1284 m). We mapped potential mosquito larval habitats and determined their number within 250 m of a household and distances to households using ArcMap. Across all clusters, P. falciparum parasites were detected in 49.8% (1524/3061) of individuals by qPCR and 19.5% (596/3061) by microscopy. Across the clusters, prevalence ranged from 26% to 70% by qPCR. Three to 34 larval habitats per cluster and 0-17 habitats within a 250m radius around households were observed. Using a generalized linear mixed effect model (GLMM), a 5% decrease in the odds of getting infected per each 10m increase in altitude was observed, while the number of larval habitats and their proximity to households were not statistically significant predictors for prevalence. Kitchen located indoors, open eaves, a lower level of education of the household head, older age, and being male were significantly associated with higher prevalence. Pronounced variation in prevalence at small scales was observed and needs to be taken into account for malaria surveillance and control. Potential larval habitat frequency had no direct impact on prevalence.

Ideational factors associated with consistent use of insecticide-treated nets: a multi-country, multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Using insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) every night, year-round is critical to maximize protection against malaria. This study describes sociodemographic, psychosocial, and household factors associated with consistent ITN use in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire and Sierra Leone.

METHODS

Cross-sectional household surveys employed similar sampling procedures, data collection tools, and methods in three countries. The survey sample was nationally representative in Côte d'Ivoire, representative of the North and Far North regions in Cameroon, and representative of Bo and Port Loko districts in Sierra Leone. Analysis used multilevel logistic regression and sociodemographic, ideational, and household independent variables among households with at least one ITN to identify correlates of consistent ITN use, defined as sleeping under an ITN every night the preceding week.

FINDINGS

Consistent ITN use in Côte d'Ivoire was 65.4%, 72.6% in Cameroon, and 77.1% in Sierra Leone. While several sociodemographic and ideational variables were correlated with consistent ITN use, these varied across countries. Multilevel logistic regression results showed perceived self-efficacy to use ITNs and positive attitudes towards ITN use were variables associated with consistent use in all three countries. The perception of ITN use as a community norm was positively linked with consistent use in Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire but was not significant in Sierra Leone. Perceived vulnerability to malaria was positively linked with consistent use in Cameroon and Sierra Leone but negatively correlated with the outcome in Côte d'Ivoire. Household net sufficiency was strongly and positively associated with consistent use in all three countries. Finally, the findings revealed strong clustering at the household and enumeration area (EA) levels, suggesting similarities in net use among respondents of the same EA and in the same household.

CONCLUSIONS

There are similarities and differences in the variables associated with consistent ITN use across the three countries and several ideational variables are significant. The findings suggest that a social and behaviour change strategy based on the ideation model is relevant for increasing consistent ITN use and can inform specific strategies for each context. Finally, ensuring household net sufficiency is essential.

Natural sugar feeding rates of Anopheles mosquitoes collected by different methods in western Kenya

Attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) are a potential vector control tool that exploits the sugar-feeding behaviour of mosquitoes. We evaluated the sugar-feeding behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes as part of baseline studies for cluster randomised controlled trials of ATSBs. Mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors from two villages in western Kenya using prokopack aspirations, malaise tent traps and ultraviolet (UV) light traps. Individual mosquitoes were subjected to the cold anthrone test to assess the presence of sugar. Overall, 15.7% of collected mosquitoes had fed on natural sugar sources. By species and sex, the proportion sugar-fed was 41.3% and 27.7% in male and female Anopheles funestus, 27.2% and 12.8% in male and female An. arabiensis, and 9.7% and 8.3% in male and female An. coustani, respectively. Sugar-feeding was higher in unfed than blood-fed mosquitoes and higher in male than gravid mosquitoes. Anopheles mosquitoes obtained sugar meals from natural sources during all physiological stages, whether they rest indoors or outdoors. These findings offer a potential avenue to exploit for the control of mosquitoes, particularly with the advent of ATSBs, which have been shown to reduce mosquito densities in other regions.

Malaria vaccine: The lasting solution to malaria burden in Africa

Malaria is one of the deadliest infectious diseases in Africa. Many measures have been taken over the past few years to reduce the burden of malaria on public health following the recommendation of WHO, still, malaria has continued to rake devastation in Africa. Combating malaria in Africa has grown into an international concern. The eradication of malaia is a long-standing goal of public health initiatives globally. The development of vaccines will go a long way to provide the required immunity needed for the people living with malaria or vulnerable to malaria. It is imperative that a vaccine should be produced and rolled out for use, especially during the time of the COVID-19 pandemic when attention is given to mitigating the impact of the pandemic on public health. The malaria vaccine will reduce the number of hospital admission for malaria illness among children and other age groups. Africa will need to build strong innovations to overcome country-specific challenges in vaccination drive, human resources, and supply chain management. Accelerating education, sensitization, diagnosis, and eradication through joint efforts of the government, healthcare professionals and general population will help to prevent the dual synchronous epidemic of COVID-19 and Malaria in Africa.

Evaluation of the protective efficacy of a spatial repellent to reduce malaria incidence in children in western Kenya compared to placebo: study protocol for a cluster-randomized double-blinded control trial (the AEGIS program)

Background

Spatial repellents are widely used for prevention of mosquito bites and evidence is building on their public health value, but their efficacy against malaria incidence has never been evaluated in Africa. To address this knowledge gap, a trial to evaluate the efficacy of Mosquito Shield™, a spatial repellent incorporating transfluthrin, was developed for implementation in Busia County, western Kenya where long-lasting insecticidal net coverage is high and baseline malaria transmission is moderate to high year-round.

Methods

This trial is designed as a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded clinical trial. Sixty clusters will be randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive spatial repellent or placebo. A total of 6120 children aged ≥6 months to 10 years of age will be randomly selected from the study clusters, enrolled into an active cohort (baseline, cohort 1, and cohort 2), and sampled monthly to determine time to first infection by smear microscopy. Each cohort following the implementation of the intervention will be split into two groups, one to estimate direct effect of the spatial repellent and the other to estimate degree of diversion of mosquitoes and malaria transmission to unprotected persons. Malaria incidence in each cohort will be estimated and compared (primary indicator) to determine benefit of using a spatial repellent in a high, year-round malaria transmission setting. Mosquitoes will be collected monthly using CDC light traps to determine if there are entomological correlates of spatial repellent efficacy that may be useful for the evaluation of new spatial repellents. Quarterly human landing catches will assess behavioral effects of the intervention.

Discussion

Findings will serve as the first cluster-randomized controlled trial powered to detect spatial repellent efficacy to reduce malaria in sub-Saharan Africa where transmission rates are high, insecticide-treated nets are widely deployed, and mosquitoes are resistant to insecticides. Results will be submitted to the World Health Organization Vector Control Advisory Group for assessment of public health value towards an endorsement to recommend inclusion of spatial repellents in malaria control programs.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.govNCT04766879. Registered February 23, 2021.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06196-x.

The burden of influenza among Kenyan pregnant and postpartum women and their infants, 2015–2020

Background

In tropical Africa, data about influenza‐associated illness burden are needed to assess potential benefits of influenza vaccination among pregnant women. We estimated the incidence of influenza among pregnant women and their infants in Siaya County, Kenya.

Methods

We enrolled women at <31 weeks of gestation and conducted weekly follow‐up until 6‐month postpartum to identify acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs). We defined ARI among mothers as reported cough, rhinorrhoea or sore throat and among infants as maternal‐reported cough, difficulty breathing, rhinorrhoea or clinician diagnosis of respiratory illness. We collected nasal/nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs from mothers/infants with ARI and tested for influenza A and B using molecular assays. We calculated antenatal incidence of laboratory‐confirmed influenza among mothers and postnatal incidence among mothers and infants.

Results

During June 2015 to May 2020, we analysed data from 3,026 pregnant women at a median gestational age of 16 weeks (interquartile range [IQR], 13, 18) and followed 2,550 infants. Incidence of laboratory‐confirmed influenza during pregnancy (10.3 episodes per 1,000 person‐months [95% confidence interval {CI} 8.6–11.8]) was twofold higher than in the postpartum period (4.0 [95% CI 2.6–5.5]; p < 0.01). Incidence was significantly higher among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)‐infected pregnant women (15.6 [95% CI 11.0–20.6] vs. 9.1 [95% CI 7.5–10.8]; p < 0.01). Incidence among young infants was 4.4 (95% CI 3.0–5.9) and similar among HIV‐exposed and HIV‐unexposed infants.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest a substantial burden of influenza illnesses during pregnancy, with a higher burden among HIV‐infected mothers. Kenyan authorities should consider the value of vaccinating pregnant women, especially if HIV infected.

Malaria infection and severe disease risks in Africa

The relationship between community prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum and the burden of severe, life-threatening disease remains poorly defined. To examine the three most common severe malaria phenotypes from catchment populations across East Africa, we assembled a dataset of 6506 hospital admissions for malaria in children aged 3 months to 9 years from 2006 to 2020. Admissions were paired with data from community parasite infection surveys. A Bayesian procedure was used to calibrate uncertainties in exposure (parasite prevalence) and outcomes (severe malaria phenotypes). Each 25% increase in prevalence conferred a doubling of severe malaria admission rates. Severe malaria remains a burden predominantly among young children (3 to 59 months) across a wide range of community prevalence typical of East Africa. This study offers a quantitative framework for linking malaria parasite prevalence and severe disease outcomes in children.

Factors Associated with Malaria Preventive Measures among Pregnant Women in Guinea

Background

Malaria control interventions have been scaled up, particularly those in pregnant women in Guinea. Despite that, coverage of key malaria preventive measure (MPM) indicators remains low. Therefore, it is vital to understand the reasons behind that, especially for the low coverage of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLIN).

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey in nine district hospitals in Guinea. Pregnant women received for delivery were interviewed to collect sociodemographic and obstetrical parameters. Associated factors with MPMs were investigated through univariate analysis and classification and regression tree (CART).

Results

A total of 2248 parturients participated in this study. Among pregnant women using mosquito nets (63.5% (61.4%, 65.5%)), only 41.2% (39.1%, 43.3%) had used it regularly during the last two weeks preceding delivery. Similarly, most pregnant women (57.9% (55.8%, 59.9%)) had received less than three doses of SP, and only a few pregnant women (23.9% (22.1%, 25.7%)) have benefited from full MPMs. Parturient's age, marital status, time spent in residence, place of residence, level of education, distance from home to the health centre, health conditions, occupation, head of the household's occupation, the presence of garbage and stagnant water in the neighbourhood, source of running water, and the number of pregnancies were significantly statistically associated with MPMs in pregnant women. However, the number of antenatal care visits (ANC), means of transportation used by the pregnant woman to accomplish ANCs, and stagnant water in the neighbourhood were the three preponderant factors.

Conclusion

The low coverage of SP and LLINs among pregnant women requires revitalising some strategies, especially improving ANC coverage and more efforts to reduce inequalities in access to those services due to sociodemographic status. Education on the benefits of these MPMs should also be emphasised.

Malaria rapid diagnostic test (HRP2/pLDH) positivity, incidence, care accessibility and impact of community WASH Action programme in DR Congo: mixed method study involving 625 households

Background

Malaria is one of the most prevalent and deadliest illnesses in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite recent gains made towards its control, many African countries still have endemic malaria transmission. This study aimed to assess malaria burden at household level in Kongo central province, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the impact of community participatory Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Action programme.

Methods

Mixed method research was conducted in two semi-rural towns, Mbanza-Ngungu (a WASH action site) and Kasangulu (a WASH control site) in DRC between 1 January 2017 through March 2018, involving 625 households (3,712 household members). Baseline and post-intervention malaria surveys were conducted with the use of World Bank/WHO Malaria Indicator Questionnaire. An action research consisting of a six-month study was carried out which comprised two interventions: a community participatory WASH action programme aiming at eliminating mosquito breeding areas in the residential environment and a community anti-malaria education campaign. The latter was implemented at both study sites. In addition, baseline and post-intervention malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) was performed among the respondents. Furthermore, a six-month hospital-based epidemiological study was conducted at selected referral hospitals at each site from 1 January through June 2017 to determine malaria trend.

Results

Long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) was the most commonly used preventive measure (55%); 24% of households did not use any measures. Baseline malaria survey showed that 96% of respondents (heads of households) reported at least one episode occurring in the previous six months; of them only 66.5% received malaria care at a health setting. In the Action Research, mean incident household malaria cases decreased significantly at WASH action site (2.3 ± 2.2 cases vs. 1.2 ± 0.7 cases, respectively; p < 0.05), whereas it remained unchanged at the Control site. Similar findings were observed with RDT results. Data collected from referral hospitals showed high malaria incidence rate, 67.4%. Low household income (ORa = 2.37; 95%CI: 1.05–3.12; p < 0.05), proximity to high risk area for malaria (ORa = 5.13; 95%CI: 2–29-8.07; p < 0.001), poor WASH (ORa = 4.10; 95%CI: 2.11–7.08; p < 0.001) were predictors of household malaria.

Conclusion

This research showed high prevalence of positive malaria RDT among the responders and high household malaria incidence, which were reduced by a 6-month WASH intervention. DRC government should scale up malaria control strategy by integrating efficient indoor and outdoor preventive measures and improve malaria care accessibility.

Socioeconomic inequality in intermittent preventive treatment using Sulphadoxine pyrimethamine among pregnant women in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Intermittent preventive treatment using Sulphadoxine pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) for malaria prevention is recommended for all pregnant women in malaria endemic areas. However, there is limited evidence on the level of socioeconomic inequality in IPTp-SP use among pregnant women in Nigeria. Thus, this study aimed to determine the level of socioeconomic inequality in IPTp-SP use among pregnant women in Nigeria and to decompose it into its contributing factors.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis of Nigerian demographic and health survey of 2018 was conducted. A sample of 21,621 pregnant women aged between 15 and 49 years and had live birth in the previous 2 years before the survey were included in this analysis. The study participants were recruited based on a stratified two-stage cluster sampling method. Socioeconomic inequality was decomposed into its contributing factors by concentration index.

RESULT

Totally 63.6% of pregnant women took at least one dose of IPTp-SP prophylaxis. Among IPTp-SP users, 35.1% took one dose, 38.6% took two doses and 26.2% took three doses and more. Based on both concentration index of 0.180 (p-value = < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.176 to 0.183) and Erreyger's normalization concentration index 0.280 (p-value = < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.251 to 0.309), the IPTp-SP utilization was pro-rich. The largest contributors to the inequality in IPTp-SP uptake were wealth index (47.81%) and educational status (28.66%).

CONCLUSION

Our findings showed that IPTp-SP use was pro-rich in Nigeria. Wealth index and educational status were the factors that significantly contributed to the inequality. The disparities could be reduced through free IPTp service expansion by targeting pregnant women from low socioeconomic status.

Does communicable diseases (including COVID-19) may increase global poverty risk? A cloud on the horizon

Coronavirus epidemic can push millions of people in poverty. The shortage of healthcare resources, lack of sanitation, and population compactness leads to an increase in communicable diseases, which may increase millions of people add in a vicious cycle of poverty. The study used the number of factors that affect poverty incidence in a panel of 76 countries for a period of 2010-2019. The dynamic panel GMM estimates show that the causes of death by communicable diseases, chemical-induced carbon and fossil fuel combustion, and lack of access to basic hand washing facilities menace to increase poverty headcounts, whereas, an increase in healthcare expenditures substantially decreases poverty headcounts across countries. Further, the results show the U-shaped relationship between economic growth and poverty headcounts, as economic growth first decreases and later increase poverty headcount due to rising healthcare disparities among nations. The causality estimates show that lack of access to basic amenities lead to increase of communicable diseases including COVID-19 whereas chemical-induced carbon and fossil fuel emissions continue to increase healthcare expenditures and economic growth in a panel of selected countries. The rising healthcare disparities, regional conflicts, and public debt burden further 'hold in the hand' of communicable diseases that push millions of people in the poverty trap.

Characterizing the Spatial Determinants and Prevention of Malaria in Kenya

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3 is to ensure health and well-being for all at all ages with a specific target to end malaria by 2030. Aligned with this goal, the primary objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of utilizing local spatial variations to uncover the statistical relationships between malaria incidence rate and environmental and behavioral factors across the counties of Kenya. Two data sources are used-Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys of 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, and the national Malaria Indicator Survey of 2015. The spatial analysis shows clustering of counties with high malaria incidence rate, or hot spots, in the Lake Victoria region and the east coastal area around Mombasa; there are significant clusters of counties with low incidence rate, or cold spot areas in Nairobi. We apply an analysis technique, geographically weighted regression, that helps to better model how environmental and social determinants are related to malaria incidence rate while accounting for the confounding effects of spatial non-stationarity. Some general patterns persist over the four years of observation. We establish that variables including rainfall, proximity to water, vegetation, and population density, show differential impacts on the incidence of malaria in Kenya. The El-Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) event in 2015 was significant in driving up malaria in the southern region of Lake Victoria compared with prior time-periods. The applied spatial multivariate clustering analysis indicates the significance of social and behavioral survey responses. This study can help build a better spatially explicit predictive model for malaria in Kenya capturing the role and spatial distribution of environmental, social, behavioral, and other characteristics of the households.