Using a system dynamics model to study the obesity transition by socioeconomic status in Colombia at the country, regional and department levels

Understanding the dynamics of the obesity transition associated with physical activity, sedentary lifestyle, and consumption of ultra-processed foods in Colombia

OBJECTIVE

We investigate the obesity transition at the country- and regional-levels, by age, gender, and socioeconomic status (SES) and its relationship to three health behavior attributes, including physical activity (PA), sedentary activities (ST), and consumption of ultra-processed foods (CUPF) within the urban population of Colombia, from 20,010 to 2050.

METHODS

The study is informed by cross-sectional data from ENSIN survey. We used these data to develop a system dynamics model that simulates the dynamics of obesity by body mass index (BMI) categories, gender, and SES. This model also uses a conservative co-flow structure for three health-related behaviors (PA, ST, and CUPF).

RESULTS

At the national level, our results indicate that the burden of obesity is shifting towards populations with lower SES as the gross domestic product (GDP) increases, particularly women aged 20-59 years with lower SES. Among this group of women, the highest burden of obesity is among those who do not meet the PA, ST and CUPF recommendations. At the regional level, our findings suggest that the regions are at different stages in the obesity transition.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of obesity is shifting towards women with lower SES as GDP increases at the national level and across several regions. This obesity transition is paralleled by a high prevalence of women from low SES groups who do not meet the minimum recommendations for PA, CUPF, and ST. Our findings can be used by decision-makers to inform age- and SES- specific policies seeking to tackle the obesity.

Exploring the potential of meeting adolescent girls' nutrient needs in urban Colombia using food-based recommendations

During adolescence, many young people gain greater food choice agency but also become increasingly exposed and susceptible to environmental pressures that influence their food choices. This coincides with increased nutritional needs, especially for girls. In urban Colombia, adolescent diets are often high in undesirable foods and low in nutritious foods, contributing to overweight and micronutrient deficiencies. This study aimed to explore the potential of improving diet quality using food-based recommendations (FBRs) within the parameters of local food systems and adolescents' existing dietary patterns to inform context-specific programmatic responses to malnutrition. We applied linear programming analysis to dietary data from 13- to 20-year-old girls in Medellin to identify problem nutrients, local micronutrient sources, and promising FBRs. Iron and, to a lesser extent, calcium targets were difficult to meet using optimized diets based on local foods, especially for 13- to 17-year-olds. High habitual consumption of foods with excessive salt, fat, or sugar provided >5% of micronutrients in optimized diets. Otherwise, significant micronutrient sources included legumes, meat, dairy, bread, potatoes, and fruit. FBRs met targets for 10 micronutrients but only 32%-39% recommended nutrient intake for iron. FBRs, including occasionally consumed foods and supplements, met all intake targets for less cost, indicating a need to increase access to nutrient-dense products.

Small area vulnerability, household food insecurity and child malnutrition in Medellin, Colombia: results from a repeated cross-sectional study

Background

Malnutrition and food insecurity might be driven not only by individual factors but also by contextual conditions, such as area-level deprivation or vulnerability. This study aimed to analyze the association between area-level vulnerability and i) household food insecurity and ii) malnutrition in children in Medellin, Colombia, during the years 2017 and 2018.

Methods

We obtained data from two different sources: the Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) and the nutrition surveillance system of Medellin. The main outcomes were food insecurity in households with children and anthropometric indicators for children under five. The main predictor was area-level vulnerability. Mixed effects Poisson regression with robust standard errors models were conducted to test the association of quintiles of deprivation with each outcome.

Findings

Households with children living in areas with the highest deprivation had 1.9 times the prevalence of food insecurity as compared to those living in areas with the lowest deprivation (PR 1.91, 95% CI 1.42-2.57). Similar results were observed for underweight/risk of underweight (PR 1.26, 95% CI 1.11-1.42), stunting/risk of stunting (PR 1.36, 95% CI 1.22-1.53) and stunting (PR 1.93 95% CI 1.55-2.39) among children under five. We found no consistent associations with wasting/risk of wasting or excess weight/risk of overweight across quintiles of deprivation.

Interpretation

This study sheds light on the role of area-level vulnerability on malnutrition in children in Medellin, Colombia, showing a pattern of increasing prevalence of food insecurity, underweight and stunting by quintile of deprivation.

Funding

Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+) and Centre for Global Health Inequalities Research (CHAIN).

Cardiovascular disease prevention capacity in Colombian local health departments

Prevention capacity of local health organisations is associated with the performance and outcomes in public health. In Colombia, where cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality, there is limited knowledge about the capacity of local health departments to prevent this condition. Efforts are needed to address problems, potential solutions and expected outcomes regarding cardiovascular disease. In this study, a conceptual model for cardiovascular disease prevention capacity in Colombian local health departments was developed, a questionnaire based on this model was validated, the overall cardiovascular disease prevention capacity in a subsample of these organisations was measured, and the association between cardiovascular disease prevention capacity and political, population, and organisational factors was examined. Once the acceptable performance of the questionnaire was verified, variability in cardiovascular prevention capacity was found among a subsample of local health departments. Furthermore, this study provides primary evidence regarding the association between the size of local health departments and overall cardiovascular disease prevention capacity in Colombia. Future studies should focus on measuring this capacity on a larger scale and developing, implementing, and evaluating interventions aimed at strengthening cardiovascular prevention capacity in Colombian local jurisdictions.

From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America

Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities). We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants' perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise. Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, 'healthy' scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of 'healthy' scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes. The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.

Observed magnitude and trends in socioeconomic and geographic area inequalities in obesity prevalence among non-pregnant women in Chad: evidence from three waves of Chad demographic and health surveys

BACKGROUND

While the prevalence of obesity is increasing worldwide, the growing rates of overweight and obesity in developing countries are disquieting. Obesity is widely recognized as a risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Available evidence on whether obesity has been more prevalent among higher or lower socioeconomic groups, across regions and urban-rural women's are inconsistent. This study examined magnitude of and trends in socioeconomic, urban-rural and sub-national region inequalities in obesity prevalence among non-pregnant women in Chad.

METHOD

Using cross-sectional data from Chad Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) conducted in 1996, 2004 and 2014; we used the World Health Organization (WHO) Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT) to analyze socio-economic, urban-rural and regional inequalities in obesity prevalence among non-pregnant women aged 15-49 years. Inequalities were assessed using four equity stratifiers namely wealth index, educational level, place of residence and subnational region. We presented inequalities using simple and complex as well as relative and absolute summary measures such as Difference (D), Population Attributable Risk (PAR), Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) and Ratio (R).

RESULTS

Though constant pattern overtime, both wealth-driven and place of residence inequality were observed in all three surveys by Difference measure and in the first and last surveys by Ratio measure. Similarly, including the recent survey (D = -2.80, 95% CI:-4.15, - 1.45, R = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.50) absolute (in 1996 & 2014 survey) and relative (in all three surveys) educational status inequality with constant pattern were observed. Substantial absolute (PAR = -2.2, 95% CI: - 3.21, - 1.34) and relative (PAF = - 91.9, 95% CI: - 129.58, - 54.29) regional inequality was observed with increasing and constant pattern by simple (D) and complex (PAR, PAF) measures.

CONCLUSION

The study showed socioeconomic and area-based obesity inequalities that disfavored women in higher socioeconomic status and residing in urban areas. Prevention of obesity prevalence should be government and stakeholders' priority through organizing the evidence, health promotion and prevention interventions for at risk population and general population.

Adolescent Obesity Modeling: A Framework of Socio-Economic Analysis on Public Health

Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling (SEM-Bayesian) was applied across different research areas to model the correlation between manifest and latent variables. The primary purpose of this study is to introduce a new framework of complexity to adolescent obesity modeling based on adolescent lifestyle through the application of SEM-Bayesian. The introduced model was designed based on the relationships among several factors: household socioeconomic status, healthy food intake, unhealthy food intake, lifestyle, body mass index (BMI) and body fat. One of the main contributions of this study is from considering both BMI and body fat as dependent variables. To demonstrate the reliability of the model, especially in terms of its fitting and accuracy, real-time data were extracted and analyzed across 881 adolescents from secondary schools in Tehran, Iran. The output of this study may be helpful for researchers who are interested in adolescent obesity modeling based on the lifestyle and household socioeconomic status of adolescents.

Time trends in socio-economic, urban-rural and regional disparities in prevalence of obesity among non-pregnant women in Lesotho: evidence from Lesotho demographic and health surveys (2004-2014)

BACKGROUND

The growing rates of obesity in developing countries are alarming. There is a paucity of evidence about disparities of obesity in Lesotho. This study examined socioeconomic and area-based inequalities in obesity among non-pregnant women in Lesotho.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the 2004, 2009 and 2014 Lesotho Demographic and Health Surveys (LDHS) and analyzed through the recently updated Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT) of the World Health Organization. Obesity prevalence was disaggregated by four equity stratifiers, namely education, wealth, residence and sub-national region. For each equity stratifier, simple and complex as well as relative and absolute summary measures were calculated. A 95% confidence interval was used to measure statistical significance of findings.

RESULTS

We noticed substantial wealth-driven (D = -21.10, 95% CI; - 25.94, - 16.26), subnational region (PAR = -11.82, 95%CI; - 16.09, - 7.55) and urban-rural (- 9.82, 95% CI; - 13.65, - 5.99) inequalities in obesity prevalence without the inequalities improved over time in all the studied years. However, we did not identify educational inequality in obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

Wealth-driven and geographical inequalities was identified in Lesotho in all the studied time periods while education related inequalities did not appear during the same time period. All population groups in the country need to be reached with interventions to reduce the burden of obesity in the country.