Prediction models for hospital readmissions in patients with heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Comparison of machine learning and conventional statistical modeling for predicting readmission following acute heart failure hospitalization

INTRODUCTION

Developing accurate models for predicting the risk of 30-day readmission is a major healthcare interest. Evidence suggests that models developed using machine learning (ML) may have better discrimination than conventional statistical models (CSM), but the calibration of such models is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To compare models developed using ML with those developed using CSM to predict 30-day readmission for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular causes in HF patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 10,919 patients with HF (> 18 years) discharged alive from a hospital or emergency department (2004-2007) in Ontario, Canada. The study sample was randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 2:1 ratio. CSMs to predict 30-day readmission were developed using Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards regression (treating death as a competing risk), and the ML algorithm employed random survival forests for competing risks (RSF-CR). Models were evaluated in the validation set using both discrimination and calibration metrics.

RESULTS

In the validation sample of 3602 patients, RSF-CR (c-statistic=0.620) showed similar discrimination to the Fine-Gray competing risk model (c-statistic=0.621) for 30-day cardiovascular readmission. In contrast, for 30-day noncardiovascular readmission, the Fine-Gray model (c-statistic=0.641) slightly outperformed the RSF-CR model (c-statistic=0.632). For both outcomes, The Fine-Gray model displayed better calibration than RSF-CR using calibration plots of observed vs predicted risks across the deciles of predicted risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Fine-Gray models had similar discrimination but superior calibration to the RSF-CR model, highlighting the importance of reporting calibration metrics for ML-based prediction models. The discrimination was modest in all readmission prediction models regardless of the methods used.

Nursing Variables Predicting Readmissions in Patients With a High Risk: A Scoping Review

Unplanned readmission endangers patient safety and increases unnecessary healthcare expenditure. Identifying nursing variables that predict patient readmissions can aid nurses in providing timely nursing interventions that help patients avoid readmission after discharge. We aimed to provide an overview of the nursing variables predicting readmission of patients with a high risk. The authors searched five databases-PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Scopus-for publications from inception to April 2023. Search terms included "readmission" and "nursing records." Eight studies were included for review. Nursing variables were classified into three categories-specifically, nursing assessment, nursing diagnosis, and nursing intervention. The nursing assessment category comprised 75% of the nursing variables; the proportions of the nursing diagnosis (25%) and nursing intervention categories (12.5%) were relatively low. Although most variables of the nursing assessment category focused on the patients' physical aspect, emotional and social aspects were also considered. This study demonstrated how nursing care contributes to patients' adverse outcomes. The findings can assist nurses in identifying the essential nursing assessment, diagnosis, and interventions, which should be provided from the time of patients' admission. This can mitigate preventable readmissions of patients with a high risk and facilitate their safe transition from an acute care setting to the community.

Trends in fluid overload-related hospitalisations among patients with diabetes mellitus The impact of chronic kidney disease

Introduction

Fluid overload is a known complication in patients with diabetes mellitus, particularly those with cardiovascular and/or chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study investigates the impact of fluid overload on healthcare utilisation and its association with diabetes-related complications.

Method

Electronic medical records from the SingHealth Diabetes Registry (2013-2022) were analysed. Hospitalisations due to fluid overload were identified using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) discharge codes. Trends were examined using Joinpoint regression, and associations were assessed with generalised estimating equation models.

Results

Over a period of 10 years, 259,607 individuals treated at primary care clinics and tertiary hospitals were studied. The incidence of fluid overload-related hospitalisations decreased from 2.99% (n=2778) in 2013 to 2.18% (n=2617) in 2017. However, this incidence increased from 2.42% (n=3091) in 2018 to 3.71% (n=5103) in 2022. The strongest associations for fluid overload-related hospitalisation were found with CKD stages G5 (odds ratio [OR] 6.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.26-6.99), G4 (OR 5.55, 95% CI 5.26-5.86) and G3b (OR 3.18, 95% CI 3.02-3.35), as well as with ischaemic heart disease (OR 3.97, 95% CI 3.84-4.11), acute myocardial infarction (OR 3.07, 95% CI 2.97-3.18) and hypertension (OR 3.90, 95% CI 3.45-4.41). Additionally, the prevalence of stage G5 CKD among patients with fluid overload increased between 2018 and 2022.

Conclusion

Our study revealed a significant increase in fluid overload-related hospitalisations and extended lengths of stay, likely driven by severe CKD. This underscores an urgent need for initiatives aimed at slowing CKD progression and reducing fluid overload-related hospitalisations in diabetes patients.

Automation tools to support undertaking scoping reviews

OBJECTIVE

This paper describes several automation tools and software that can be considered during evidence synthesis projects and provides guidance for their integration in the conduct of scoping reviews.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

The guidance presented in this work is adapted from the results of a scoping review and consultations with the JBI Scoping Review Methodology group.

RESULTS

This paper describes several reliable, validated automation tools and software that can be used to enhance the conduct of scoping reviews. Developments in the automation of systematic reviews, and more recently scoping reviews, are continuously evolving. We detail several helpful tools in order of the key steps recommended by the JBI's methodological guidance for undertaking scoping reviews including team establishment, protocol development, searching, de-duplication, screening titles and abstracts, data extraction, data charting, and report writing. While we include several reliable tools and software that can be used for the automation of scoping reviews, there are some limitations to the tools mentioned. For example, some are available in English only and their lack of integration with other tools results in limited interoperability.

CONCLUSION

This paper highlighted several useful automation tools and software programs to use in undertaking each step of a scoping review. This guidance has the potential to inform collaborative efforts aiming at the development of evidence informed, integrated automation tools and software packages for enhancing the conduct of high-quality scoping reviews.

Hospital Readmissions for Fluid Overload among Individuals with Diabetes and Diabetic Kidney Disease: Risk Factors and Multivariable Prediction Models

AIMS

Hospital readmissions due to recurrent fluid overload in diabetes and diabetic kidney disease can be avoided with evidence-based interventions. We aimed to identify at-risk patients who can benefit from these interventions by developing risk prediction models for readmissions for fluid overload in people living with diabetes and diabetic kidney disease.

METHODS

This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of 1,531 adults with diabetes and diabetic kidney disease hospitalized for fluid overload, congestive heart failure, pulmonary edema, and generalized edema between 2015 and 2017. The multivariable regression models for 30-day and 90-day readmission for fluid overload were compared with the LACE score for discrimination, calibration, sensitivity, specificity, and net reclassification index (NRI).

RESULTS

Readmissions for fluid overload within 30 days and 90 days occurred in 8.6% and 17.2% of patients with diabetes, and 8.2% and 18.3% of patients with diabetic kidney disease, respectively. After adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, clinical parameters, and medications, a history of alcoholism (HR 3.85, 95% CI: 1.41-10.55) and prior hospitalization for fluid overload (HR 2.50, 95% CI: 1.26-4.96) were independently associated with 30-day readmission in patients with diabetic kidney disease, as well as in individuals with diabetes. Additionally, current smoking, absence of hypertension, and high-dose intravenous furosemide were also associated with 30-day readmission in individuals with diabetes. Prior hospitalization for fluid overload (HR 2.43, 95% CI: 1.50-3.94), cardiovascular disease (HR 1.44, 95% CI: 1.03-2.02), eGFR ≤45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (HR 1.39, 95% CI: 1.003-1.93) was independently associated with 90-day readmissions in individuals with diabetic kidney disease. Additionally, thiazide prescription at discharge reduced 90-day readmission in diabetic kidney disease, while the need for high-dose intravenous furosemide predicted 90-day readmission in diabetes. The clinical and clinico-psychological models for 90-day readmission in individuals with diabetes and diabetic kidney disease had better discrimination and calibration than the LACE score. The NRI for the clinico-psychosocial models to predict 30- and 90-day readmissions in diabetes was 22.4% and 28.9%, respectively. The NRI for the clinico-psychosocial models to predict 30- and 90-day readmissions in diabetic kidney disease was 5.6% and 38.9%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The risk models can potentially be used to identify patients at risk of readmission for fluid overload for evidence-based interventions, such as patient education or transitional care programs to reduce preventable hospitalizations.

Early repeat hospitalization for fluid overload in individuals with cardiovascular disease and risks: a retrospective cohort study

AIMS

Fluid overload is a common manifestation of cardiovascular and kidney disease and a leading cause of hospitalizations. To identify patients at risk of recurrent severe fluid overload, we evaluated the incidence and risk factors associated with early repeat hospitalization for fluid overload among individuals with cardiovascular disease and risks.

METHODS

Single-center retrospective cohort study of 3423 consecutive adults with an index hospitalization for fluid overload between January 2015 and December 2017 and had cardiovascular risks (older age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, kidney disease, known cardiovascular disease), but excluded if lost to follow-up or eGFR < 15 ml/min/1.73 m2. The outcome was early repeat hospitalization for fluid overload within 30 days of discharge.

RESULTS

The mean age was 73.9 ± 11.6 years and eGFR was 54.1 ± 24.6 ml/min/1.73 m2 at index hospitalization. Early repeat hospitalization for fluid overload occurred in 291 patients (8.5%). After adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, clinical parameters during index hospitalization and medications at discharge, cardiovascular disease (adjusted odds ratio, OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.27-2.17), prior hospitalization for fluid overload within 3 months (OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.17-5.44), prior hospitalization for any cause in within 6 months (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.02-1.73) and intravenous furosemide use (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.10-2.28) were associated with early repeat hospitalization for fluid overload. Higher systolic BP on admission (OR 0.992, 95% 0.986-0.998) and diuretic at discharge (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.26-0.98) reduced early hospitalization for fluid overload.

CONCLUSION

Patients at-risk of early repeat hospitalization for fluid overload may be identified using these risk factors for targeted interventions.

Readmission After ACS: Burden, Epidemiology, and Mitigation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The past decade has brought increased efforts to better understand causes for ACS readmissions and strategies to minimize them. This review seeks to provide a critical appraisal of this rapidly growing body of literature.

RECENT FINDINGS

Prior to 2010, readmission rates for patients suffering from ACS remained relatively constant. More recently, several strategies have been implemented to mitigate this including improved risk assessment models, transition care bundles, and development of targeted programs by federal organizations and professional societies. These strategies have been associated with a significant reduction in ACS readmission rates in more recent years. With this, improvements in 30-day post-discharge mortality rates are also being appreciated. As we continue to expand our knowledge on independent risk factors for ACS readmissions, further strategies targeting at-risk populations may further decrease the rate of readmissions. Efforts to understand and reduce 30-day ACS readmission rates have resulted in overall improved quality of care for patients.