Clinical navigation for beginners: the clinical utility and safety of the Paramedic Pathfinder

The Safety INdEx of Prehospital On Scene Triage (SINEPOST) study: The development and validation of a risk prediction model to support ambulance clinical transport decisions on-scene

One of the main problems currently facing the delivery of safe and effective emergency care is excess demand, which causes congestion at different time points in a patient’s journey. The modern case-mix of prehospital patients is broad and complex, diverging from the traditional ‘time critical accident and emergency’ patients. It now includes many low-acuity patients and those with social care and mental health needs. In the ambulance service, transport decisions are the hardest to make and paramedics decide to take more patients to the ED than would have a clinical benefit. As such, this study asked the following research questions: In adult patients attending the ED by ambulance, can prehospital information predict an avoidable attendance? What is the simulated transportability of the model derived from the primary outcome? A linked dataset of 101,522 ambulance service and ED ambulance incidents linked to their respective ED care record from the whole of Yorkshire between 1st July 2019 and 29th February 2020 was used as the sample for this study. A machine learning method known as XGBoost was applied to the data in a novel way called Internal-External Cross Validation (IECV) to build the model. The results showed great discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.81 (95%CI 0.79–0.83) and excellent calibration with an O:E ratio was 0.995 (95% CI 0.97–1.03), with the most important variables being a patient’s mobility, their physiological observations and clinical impression with psychiatric problems, allergic reactions, cardiac chest pain, head injury, non-traumatic back pain, and minor cuts and bruising being the most important. This study has successfully developed a decision-support model that can be transformed into a tool that could help paramedics make better transport decisions on scene, known as the SINEPOST model. It is accurate, and spatially validated across multiple geographies including rural, urban, and coastal. It is a fair algorithm that does not discriminate new patients based on their age, gender, ethnicity, or decile of deprivation. It can be embedded into an electronic Patient Care Record system and automatically calculate the probability that a patient will have an avoidable attendance at the ED, if they were transported. This manuscript complies with the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement (Moons KGM, 2015).

The Prevalence and Characteristics of Non-Transports in a Provincial Emergency Medical Services System: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) provide patients with out-of-hospital care, but not all patients are transported to the hospital. Non-transport represents an often undefined yet potentially significant risk for poor clinical outcomes. Few North American studies have quantified this risk.

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of non-transport and 48-h adverse event (composite of relapse responses that resulted in transport or death) and to identify characteristics associated with either outcome.

METHODS

An analysis of pooled cross-sectional, population-based administrative data from the provincial EMS electronic charting system in 2014 was conducted. Determination of non-transport was based on recorded call outcome. The data were searched by patient identifiers to determine the 48-h adverse event rate. Paramedic-documented patient, operational, and environmental characteristics were included in the logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 74,293 emergency responses, 14,072 (18.9%) were non-transport and, of those, 798 (5.6%) resulted in a 48-h adverse event. The characteristics statistically significantly and independently associated with non-transport and 48-h adverse event were younger age (odds ratio [OR] 1.72; 99.9% confidence interval [CI] 1.46-2.02), nonspecific paramedic clinical impression (OR 5; 99.9% CI 4.48-5.57), more than 7 comorbidities (OR 0.47; 99.9% CI 0.42-0.53), and incident location (jail) (OR 2.88; 99.9% CI 2.22-3.74).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides an estimate of prevalence of non-transports and 48-h adverse event in a provincial mixed rural-urban EMS system. The results of this study describe the scope of non-transport and present several characteristics associated with non-transport. Future study should examine the appropriateness of EMS responses and methods to mitigate risk of adverse event after non-transport.

The Safety INdEx of Prehospital On Scene Triage (SINEPOST) study: the development and validation of a risk prediction model to support ambulance clinical transport decisions on-scene-a protocol

BACKGROUND

Demand for both the ambulance service and the emergency department (ED) is rising every year and when this demand is excessive in both systems, ambulance crews queue at the ED waiting to hand patients over. Some transported ambulance patients are 'low-acuity' and do not require the treatment of the ED. However, paramedics can find it challenging to identify these patients accurately. Decision support tools have been developed using expert opinion to help identify these low acuity patients but have failed to show a benefit beyond regular decision-making. Predictive algorithms may be able to build accurate models, which can be used in the field to support the decision not to take a low-acuity patient to an ED.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

All patients in Yorkshire who were transported to the ED by ambulance between July 2019 and February 2020 will be included. Ambulance electronic patient care record (ePCR) clinical data will be used as candidate predictors for the model. These will then be linked to the corresponding ED record, which holds the outcome of a 'non-urgent attendance'. The estimated sample size is 52,958, with 4767 events and an EPP of 7.48. An XGBoost algorithm will be used for model development. Initially, a model will be derived using all the data and the apparent performance will be assessed. Then internal-external validation will use non-random nested cross-validation (CV) with test sets held out for each ED (spatial validation). After all models are created, a random-effects meta-analysis will be undertaken. This will pool performance measures such as goodness of fit, discrimination and calibration. It will also generate a prediction interval and measure heterogeneity between clusters. The performance of the full model will be updated with the pooled results.

DISCUSSION

Creating a risk prediction model in this area will lead to further development of a clinical decision support tool that ensures every ambulance patient can get to the right place of care, first time. If this study is successful, it could help paramedics evaluate the benefit of transporting a patient to the ED before they leave the scene. It could also reduce congestion in the urgent and emergency care system.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study was retrospectively registered with the ISRCTN: 12121281.

Alternatives to direct emergency department conveyance of ambulance patients: a scoping review of the evidence

Background

The role of ambulance services is shifting, due in part to more intermediate, non-urgent patients who do not require direct emergency department conveyance, yet who cannot be safely left at home alone. Evidence surrounding the safety, effectiveness and efficiency of alternate care routes is not well known.

Methods

This scoping review sought to identify all studies that examined alternate routes of care for the non-urgent “intermediate” patient, as triaged on scene. Search terms for the sample (ambulances, paramedics, etc.) and intervention (e.g. referrals, alternate care route, non-conveyance) were combined. Articles were systematically searched using four databases and grey literature sources (February 2020). Independent researchers screened title-abstract and full text stages.

Results

Of 16,037 records, 41 examined alternate routes of care after triage by the on-scene paramedic. Eighteen articles considered quantitative patient data, 12 studies provided qualitative perspectives while 11 were consensus or opinion-based articles. The benefits of alternative schemes are well-recognised by patients, paramedics and stakeholders and there is supporting evidence for a positive impact on patient-centered care and operational efficiency. Challenges to successful use of schemes included: patient safety resulting from incorrect triage decisions, inadequate training, lack of formal partnerships between ambulance and supporting services, and insufficient evidence to support safe implementation or continued use. Studies often inaccurately defined success using proxies for patient safety (e.g. decision comparisons, rates of secondary contact). Finally, patients expressed willingness for such schemes but their preference must be better understood.

Conclusions

This broad summary offers initial support for alternate routes of care for intermediate, non-urgent patients. Even so, most studies lacked methodologically rigorous evidence and failed to evaluate safe patient outcomes. Some remedies appear to be available such as formal triage pathways, targeted training and organisational support, however there is an urgent need for more research and dissemination in this area.

Piloting data linkage in a prospective cohort study of a GP referral scheme to avoid unnecessary emergency department conveyance

Background

UK Ambulance services are under pressure to safely stream appropriate patients away from the Emergency Department (ED). Even so, there has been little evaluation of patient outcomes. We investigated differences between patients who are conveyed directly to ED after calling 999 and those referred by an ambulance crew to a novel GP referral scheme.

Methods

This was a prospective study comparing patients from two cohorts, one conveyed directly to the ED (n = 4219) and the other referred to a GP by the on-scene paramedic (n = 321). To compare differences in patient outcomes, we include follow-up data of a smaller subset of each cohort (up to n = 150 in each) including hospital admission, history of long-term illness, previous ED attendance, length of stay, hospital investigations, internal transfers, 30-day re-admission and 10-month mortality.

Results

Older individuals, females, and those with minor incidents were more likely to be referred to a GP than conveyed directly to ED. Of those patients referred to the GP, only 22.4% presented at ED within 30 days. These patients were more likely to be admitted then than were those initially conveyed directly to ED (59% vs 31%). Those conveyed to ED had a higher risk of death compared to those who were referred to the GP (HR: 2.59; 95% CI 1.14–5.89), however when analyses were restricted to those who presented at ED within 30 days, there was no difference in mortality risk (HR: 1.45; 95% CI 0.58–3.65).

Conclusions

Despite limited data and a small sample size, there were differences between patients conveyed directly to ED and those who were referred into GP care. Initial evidence suggests that referring individuals to a GP may provide an appropriate and safe alternative path of care. This pilot study demonstrated a need for larger scale, methodologically rigorous study to demonstrate the benefits of alternative conveyance schemes and recommend changes to the current system of urgent and emergency care.

Using vignettes to assess the accuracy and rationale of paramedic decisions on conveyance to the emergency department

INTRODUCTION

Paramedics make important decisions about whether a patient needs transport to hospital, or can be discharged on scene. These decisions require a degree of accuracy, as taking low acuity patients to the emergency department (ED) can support ambulance ramping. In contrast, leaving mid-high acuity patients on scene can lead to incidents and recontact. This study aims to investigate the accuracy of conveyance decisions made by paramedics when looking at real life patient scenarios with known outcomes. It also aims to explore how the paramedic made the decision.

METHODS

We undertook a prospective mixed method triangulation design. Six individual patient vignettes were created using linked ambulance and ED data. These were then presented in an online survey to paramedics in Yorkshire. Half the vignettes related to mid-high acuity attendances at the ED and the other half were low acuity. Vignettes were validated by a small expert panel. Participants were asked to determine the appropriate conveyance decision and to explain the rationale behind their decisions using a free-text box.

RESULTS

A total of 143 paramedics undertook the survey and 858 vignettes were completed. There was clear agreement between paramedics for transport decisions (ƙ = 0.63). Overall accuracy was 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.73). Paramedics were better at 'ruling in' the ED, with sensitivity of 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.92). The specificity of 'ruling out' the ED was 0.51 (95% CI 0.46-0.56). Text comments were focused on patient safety and risk aversion.

DISCUSSION

Paramedics make accurate conveyance decisions but are more likely to over-convey than under-convey, meaning that while decisions are safe they are not always appropriate. It is important that paramedics feel supported by the service to make safe and confident non-conveyance decisions. Reducing over-conveyance is a potential method of reducing demand in the urgent and emergency care system.

Joint Position Statement on Degree Requirements for Paramedics

The National Association of EMS Educators, the National EMS Management Association, and the International Association of Flight and Critical Care Paramedics believe the time has come for paramedics to be trained through a formal education process that culminates with an associate degree. Once implemented a degree requirement will improve the care delivered by paramedics and enhance paramedicine as a heath profession.

The ambulance nurse experiences of non-conveying patients

Aims and objectives

To explore ambulance nurses' (ANs) experiences of non‐conveying patients to alternate levels of care.

Background

Increases in ambulance utilisation and in the number of patients seeking ambulance care who do not require medical supervision or treatment during transport have led to increased nonconveyance (NC) and referral to other levels of care.

Design

A qualitative interview study was conducted using an inductive research approach.

Methods

The study was conducted in a region in the middle of Sweden during 2016–2017. Twenty nurses were recruited from the ambulance departments in the region. A conventional content analysis was used to analyse the interviews. The study followed the COREQ checklist.

Results

The ANs experienced NC as a complex and difficult task that carried a large amount of responsibility. They wanted to be professional, spend time with the patient and find the best solution for him or her. These needs conflicted with the ANs' desire to be available for assignments with a higher priority. The ANs could feel frustrated when they perceived that ambulance resources were being misused and when it was difficult to follow the NC guidelines.

Conclusion

If ANs are expected to nonconvey patients seeking ambulance care, they need a formal mandate, knowledge and access to primary health care.

Relevance to clinical practice

This study provides new knowledge regarding the work situation of ANs in relation to NC. These findings can guide future research and can be used by policymakers and ambulance organisations to highlight areas that need to evolve to improve patient care.

Qualitative study of paramedics' experiences of managing seizures: a national perspective from England

OBJECTIVES

The UK ambulance service is expected to now manage more patients in the community and avoid unnecessary transportations to hospital emergency departments (ED). Most people it attends who have experienced seizures have established epilepsy, have experienced uncomplicated seizures and so do not require the full facilities of an ED. Despite this, most are transported there. To understand why, we explored paramedics' experiences of managing seizures.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Semistructured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of paramedics from the English ambulance service. Interviews were transcribed and thematically analysed.

PARTICIPANTS

A diverse sample of 19 professionals was recruited from 5 different ambulance NHS trusts and the College of Paramedics.

RESULTS

Participants' confirmed how most seizure patients attended to do not clinically require an ED. They explained, however, that a number of factors influence their care decisions and create a momentum for these patients to still be taken. Of particular importance was the lack of access paramedics have to background medical information on patients. This, and the limited seizure training paramedics receive, meant paramedics often cannot interpret with confidence the normality of a seizure presentation and so transport patients out of precaution. The restricted time paramedics are expected to spend 'on scene' due to the way the ambulance services' performance is measured and that are few alternative care pathways which can be used for seizure patients also made conveyance likely.

CONCLUSIONS

Paramedics are working within a system that does not currently facilitate non-conveyance of seizure patients. Organisational, structural, professional and educational factors impact care decisions and means transportation to ED remains the default option. Improving paramedics access to medical histories, their seizure management training and developing performance measures for the service that incentivise care that is cost-effective for all of the health service might reduce unnecessary conveyances to ED.

Informing a Canadian paramedic profile: framing concepts, roles and crosscutting themes

BACKGROUND

Paramedicine is a rapidly evolving health profession with increasing responsibilities and contributions to healthcare. This rapid growth has left the profession with unclear professional and clinical boundaries. Existing defining frameworks may no longer align with the practice of paramedicine or expectations of the public. The purpose of this study was to explore the roles paramedics in Canada are to embody and that align with or support the rapid and ongoing evolution of the profession.

METHODS

We used a concurrent mixed methods study design involving a focused discourse analysis (i.e., analysis of language used to describe paramedics and paramedicine) of peer reviewed and grey literature (Phase 1) and in-depth one-on-one semi-structured interviews with key informants in Canadian paramedicine (Phase 2). Data from both methods were analyzed simultaneously throughout and after being merged using inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Saturation was reached after 99 national and international grey and peer reviewed publications and 20 in depth interviews with stakeholders representing six provinces, seven different service/agency types, 11 operational roles and seven provider roles. After merging both data sets three framing concepts, six roles and four crosscutting themes emerged that may be significant to both present-day practice and aspirational. Framing concepts, which provide context, include variable contexts or practice, embedded relationships and a health and social continuum. Roles include clinician, health and social advocate, team member, educator, professional and reflective practitioner. Crosscutting themes including patient safety, adaptability, compassion and communication appear to exist in all roles.

CONCLUSIONS

The paramedic profession is experiencing a shift that appears to deviate or at least place a tension on traditional views or models of practice. Underlying and evolving notions of practice are resulting in intended or actual clinical and professional boundaries that may require the profession to re-think how it is defined and/or shaped. Until these framing concepts, roles and crosscutting themes are fully understood, tested and operationalized, tensions between guiding frameworks and actual or intended practice may persist.

Which patients should be transported to the emergency department? A perpetual prehospital dilemma

OBJECTIVE

To examine the ability of paramedics to identify patients who could be managed in the community and to identify predictors that could be used to accurately identify patients who should be transported to EDs.

METHODS

Lower acuity patients who were assessed by paramedics in the Perth metropolitan area in 2013 were studied. Paramedics prospectively indicated on the patient care record if they considered that the patient could be treated in the community. The paramedic decisions were compared with actual disposition from the ED (discharge and admission), and the occurrence of subsequent events (ambulance request, ED visit, admission and death) for discharged patients at the scene was investigated. Decision tree analysis was used to identify predictors that were associated with hospital admission.

RESULTS

In total, 57 183 patients were transported to the ED, and 10 204 patients were discharged at the scene by paramedics. Paramedics identified 2717 patients who could potentially be treated in the community among those who were transported to the ED. Of these, 1455 patients (53.6%) were admitted to hospital. For patients discharged at the scene, those who were indicated as suitable for community care were more likely to experience subsequent events than those who were not. The decision tree found that two predictors (age and aetiology) were associated with hospital admission. Overall discriminative power of the decision tree was poor; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.686.

CONCLUSION

Lower acuity patients who could be treated in the community were not accurately identified by paramedics. This process requires further evaluation.

Paramedic Checklists do not Accurately Identify Post-ictal or Hypoglycaemic Patients Suitable for Discharge at the Scene

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy and safety of two pre-defined checklists to identify prehospital post-ictal or hypoglycemic patients who could be discharged at the scene.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of lower acuity, adult patients attended by paramedics in 2013, and who were either post-ictal or hypoglycemic, was conducted. Two self-care pathway assessment checklists (one each for post-ictal and hypoglycemia) designed as clinical decision tools for paramedics to identify patients suitable for discharge at the scene were used. The intention of the checklists was to provide paramedics with justification to not transport a patient if all checklist criteria were met. Actual patient destination (emergency department [ED] or discharge at the scene) and subsequent events (eg, ambulance requests) were compared between patients who did and did not fulfill the checklists. The performance of the checklists against the destination determined by paramedics was also assessed.

RESULTS

Totals of 629 post-ictal and 609 hypoglycemic patients were identified. Of these, 91 (14.5%) and 37 (6.1%) patients fulfilled the respective checklist. Among those who fulfilled the checklist, 25 (27.5%) post-ictal and 18 (48.6%) hypoglycemic patients were discharged at the scene, and 21 (23.1%) and seven (18.9%) were admitted to hospital after ED assessment. Amongst post-ictal patients, those fulfilling the checklist had more subsequent ambulance requests (P=.01) and ED attendances with seizure-related conditions (P=.04) within three days than those who did not. Amongst hypoglycemic patients, there were no significant differences in subsequent events between those who did and did not meet the criteria. Paramedics discharged five times more hypoglycemic patients at the scene than the checklist predicted with no significant differences in the rate of subsequent events. Four deaths (0.66%) occurred within seven days in the hypoglycemic cohort, and none of them were attributed directly to hypoglycemia.

CONCLUSIONS

The checklists did not accurately identify patients suitable for discharge at the scene within the Emergency Medical Service. Patients who fulfilled the post-ictal checklist made more subsequent health care service requests within three days than those who did not. Both checklists showed similar occurrence of subsequent events to paramedics' decision, but the hypoglycemia checklist identified fewer patients who could be discharged at the scene than paramedics actually discharged. Reliance on these checklists may increase transportations to ED and delay initiation of appropriate treatment at a hospital. Tohira H , Fatovich D , Williams TA , Bremner A , Arendts G , Rogers IR , Celenza A , Mountain D , Cameron P , Sprivulis P , Ahern T , Finn J . Paramedic checklists do not accurately identify post-ictal or hypoglycaemic patients suitable for discharge at the scene. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):282-293.

What evidence is there on the effectiveness of different models of delivering urgent care? A rapid review

Background

In 2013 NHS England set out its strategy for the development of an emergency and urgent care system that is more responsive to patients’ needs, improves outcomes and delivers clinically excellent and safe care. Knowledge about the current evidence base on models for provision of safe and effective urgent care, and the gaps in evidence that need to be addressed, can support this process.

Objective

The purpose of the evidence synthesis is to assess the nature and quality of the existing evidence base on delivery of emergency and urgent care services and identify gaps that require further primary research or evidence synthesis.

Data sources

MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and the Web of Science.

Methods

We have conducted a rapid, framework-based, evidence synthesis approach. Five separate reviews linked to themes in the NHS England review were conducted. One general and five theme-specific database searches were conducted for the years 1995–2014. Relevant systematic reviews and additional primary research papers were included and narrative assessment of evidence quality was conducted for each review.

Results

The review was completed in 6 months. In total, 45 systematic reviews and 102 primary research studies have been included across all five reviews. The key findings for each review are as follows: (1) demand – there is little empirical evidence to explain increases in demand for urgent care; (2) telephone triage – overall, these services provide appropriate and safe decision-making with high patient satisfaction, but the required clinical skill mix and effectiveness in a system is unclear; (3) extended paramedic roles have been implemented in various health settings and appear to be successful at reducing the number of transports to hospital, making safe decisions about the need for transport and delivering acceptable, cost-effective care out of hospital; (4) emergency department (ED) – the evidence on co-location of general practitioner services with EDs indicates that there is potential to improve care. The attempt to summarise the evidence about wider ED operations proved to be too complex and further focused reviews are needed; and (5) there is no empirical evidence to support the design and development of urgent care networks.

Limitations

Although there is a large body of evidence on relevant interventions, much of it is weak, with only very small numbers of randomised controlled trials identified. Evidence is dominated by single-site studies, many of which were uncontrolled.

Conclusions

The evidence gaps of most relevance to the delivery of services are (1) a requirement for more detailed understanding and mapping of the characteristics of demand to inform service planning; (2) assessment of the current state of urgent care network development and evaluation of the effectiveness of different models; and (3) expanding the current evidence base on existing interventions that are viewed as central to delivery of the NHS England plan by assessing the implications of increasing interventions at scale and measuring costs and system impact. It would be prudent to develop a national picture of existing pilot projects or interventions in development to support decisions about research commissioning.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme.

The Role of Emergency Medical Services in Geriatrics: Bridging the Gap between Primary and Acute Care

Caring for older adults is a major function of emergency medical services (EMS). Traditional EMS systems were designed to treat single acute conditions; this approach contrasts with best practices for the care of frail older adults. Care might be improved by the early identification of those who are frail and at highest risk for adverse outcomes. Paramedics are well positioned to play an important role via a more thorough evaluation of frailty (or vulnerability). These findings may inform both pre-hospital and subsequent emergency department (ED) based decisions. Innovative programs involving EMS, the ED, and primary care could reduce the workload on EDs while improving patient access to care, and ultimately patient outcomes. Some frail older adults will benefit from the resources and specialized knowledge provided by the ED, while others may be better helped in alternative ways, usually in coordination with primary care. Discerning between these groups is a challenge worthy of further inquiry. In either case, care should be timely, with a focus on identifying emergent or acute care needs, frailty evaluation, mobility assessments, identifying appropriate goals for treatment, promoting functional independence, and striving to have the patient return to their usual place of residence if this can be done safely. Paramedics are uniquely positioned to play a larger role in the care of our aging population. Improving paramedic education as it pertains to geriatrics is a critical next step.

The Epidemiology of Prehospital Emergency Responses for Older Adults in a Provincial EMS System

OBJECTIVES

Societal aging is expected to impact the use of emergency medical services (EMS). Older adults are known as high users of EMS. Our primary objective was to quantify the rate of EMS use by older adults in a Canadian provincial EMS system. Our secondary objective was to compare those transported to those not transported.

METHODS

We analysed data from a provincial EMS database for emergency responses between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2010 and included all older adults (≥65 years) requesting EMS for an emergency call. We described EMS use in relation to age, sex, and resources.

RESULTS

There were 30,653 emergency responses for older adults in 2010, representing close to 50% of the emergency call volume and an overall response rate of 202.8 responses per 1,000 population 65 years and older. The mean age was 79.9±8.5 years for those 57.3% who were female. The median paramedic-determined Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS) score was 3 and the mean on-scene time was 24.2 minutes. Non-transported calls (12.3%) for the elderly involved predominantly (54.9%) female patients of similar mean age (78.3 years) but lower acuity (CTAS 5) and longer average on-scene times (32.6 minutes).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed the increasingly high rate of EMS use with age to be consistent with other industrialized populations. The low-priority and non-transport calls by older adults consumed considerable resources in this provincial system and might be the areas most malleable to meet the challenges facing EMS systems.