Reliability and validity of the Netherlands Triage Standard in emergency care settings: a case scenario study

Emergency Department Triage, Transfer Times, and Hospital Mortality of Patients Admitted to the ICU: A Retrospective Replication and Continuation Study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to provide new insights into the impact of emergency department (ED) to ICU time on hospital mortality, stratifying patients by academic and nonacademic teaching (NACT) hospitals, and considering Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-IV probability and ED-triage scores.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study (2009-2020) using data from the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation registry. Patients directly admitted from the ED to the ICU were included from four academic and eight NACT hospitals. Odds ratios (ORs) for mortality associated with ED-to-ICU time were estimated using multivariable regression, both crude and after adjusting for and stratifying by APACHE-IV probability and ED-triage scores.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 28,455 patients were included. The median ED-to-ICU time was 1.9 hours (interquartile range, 1.2-3.1 hr). No overall association was observed between ED-to-ICU time and hospital mortality after adjusting for APACHE-IV probability ( p = 0.36). For patients with an APACHE-IV probability greater than 55.4% (highest quintile) and an ED-to-ICU time greater than 3.4 hours the adjusted OR (ORs adjApache ) was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.00-1.54; p < 0.05) as compared with the reference category (< 1.1 hr). In the academic hospitals, the ORs adjApache for ED-to-ICU times of 1.6-2.3, 2.3-3.4, and greater than 3.4 hours were 1.21 (1.01-1.46), 1.21 (1.00-1.46), and 1.34 (1.10-1.64), respectively. In NACT hospitals, no association was observed ( p = 0.07). Subsequently, ORs were adjusted for ED-triage score (ORs adjED ). In the academic hospitals the ORs adjED for ED-to-ICU times greater than 3.4 hours was 0.98 (0.81-1.19), no overall association was observed ( p = 0.08). In NACT hospitals, all time-ascending quintiles had ORs adjED values of less than 1.0 ( p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with the highest APACHE-IV probability at academic hospitals, a prolonged ED-to-ICU time was associated with increased hospital mortality. We found no significant or consistent unfavorable association in lower APACHE-IV probability groups and NACT hospitals. The association between longer ED-to-ICU time and higher mortality was not found after adjustment and stratification for ED-triage score.

Predicting sepsis-related mortality and ICU admissions from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives with acute infections: A cohort study of linked routine care databases

BACKGROUND

General practitioners (GPs) often assess patients with acute infections. It is challenging for GPs to recognize patients needing immediate hospital referral for sepsis while avoiding unnecessary referrals. This study aimed to predict adverse sepsis-related outcomes from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using linked routine care databases from out-of-hours GP cooperatives, general practices, hospitals and mortality registration. We included adult patients with complaints possibly related to an acute infection, who were assessed (clinic consultation or home visit) by a GP from a GP cooperative between 2017-2019. We used telephone triage information to derive a risk prediction model for sepsis-related adverse outcome (infection-related ICU admission within seven days or infection-related death within 30 days) using logistic regression, random forest, and neural network machine learning techniques. Data from 2017 and 2018 were used for derivation and from 2019 for validation.

RESULTS

We included 155,486 patients (median age of 51 years; 59% females) in the analyses. The strongest predictors for sepsis-related adverse outcome were age, type of contact (home visit or clinic consultation), patients considered ABCD unstable during triage, and the entry complaints"general malaise", "shortness of breath" and "fever". The multivariable logistic regression model resulted in a C-statistic of 0.89 (95% CI 0.88-0.90) with good calibration. Machine learning models performed similarly to the logistic regression model. A "sepsis alert" based on a predicted probability >1% resulted in a sensitivity of 82% and a positive predictive value of 4.5%. However, most events occurred in patients receiving home visits, and model performance was substantially worse in this subgroup (C-statistic 0.70).

CONCLUSION

Several patient characteristics identified during telephone triage of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives were associated with sepsis-related adverse outcomes. Still, on a patient level, predictions were not sufficiently accurate for clinical purposes.