Network meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to prevent falls in children under age 5 years

Contribution of the Technical Efficiency of Public Health Programs to National Trends and Regional Disparities in Unintentional Childhood Injury in Japan

To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, strengthening investments in health service inputs has been widely emphasized, but less attention has been paid to tackling variation in the technical efficiency of services. In this study, we estimated the technical efficiency of local public health programs for the prevention of unintentional childhood injury and explored its contribution to national trend changes and regional health disparities in Japan. Efficiency scores were estimated based on the Cobb-Douglas and translog production functions using a true fixed effects model in a stochastic frontier analysis to account for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity across prefectures. Using public data sources, we compiled panel data from 2001 to 2017 for all 47 prefectures in Japan. We treated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as the output, coverage rates of public health programs as inputs, and caregivers' capacity and environmental factors as constraints. To investigate the contribution of efficiency to trend changes and disparities in output, we calculated the predicted DALYs with several measures of inefficiency scores (2001 average, yearly average, and prefecture-year-specific estimates). In the translog model, mean efficiency increased from 0.62 in 2001 to 0.85 in 2017. The efficiency gaps among prefectures narrowed until 2007 and then remained constant until 2017. Holding inefficiency score constant, inputs and constraints contributed to improvements in average DALYs and widened regional gaps. Improved efficiency over the years further contributed to improvements in average DALYs. Efficiency improvement in low-output regions and stagnated improvement in high-output regions offset the trend of widening regional health disparities. Similar results were obtained with the Cobb-Douglas model. Our results demonstrated that assessing the inputs, constraints, output, and technical efficiency of public health programs could provide policy leverage relevant to region-specific conditions and performance to achieve health promotion and equity.

Using threshold analysis to assess the robustness of public health intervention recommendations from network meta-analyses: application to accident prevention in households with children under five

Background

In the appraisal of clinical interventions, complex evidence synthesis methods, such as network meta-analysis (NMA), are commonly used to investigate the effectiveness of multiple interventions in a single analysis. The results from a NMA can inform clinical guidelines directly or be used as inputs into a decision-analytic model assessing the cost-effectiveness of the interventions. However, there is hesitancy in using complex evidence synthesis methods when evaluating public health interventions. This is due to significant heterogeneity across studies investigating such interventions and concerns about their quality.

Threshold analysis has been developed to help assess and quantify the robustness of recommendations made based on results obtained from NMAs to potential limitations of the data. Developed in the context of clinical guidelines, the method may prove useful also in the context of public health interventions. In this paper, we illustrate the use of the method in public health, investigating the effectiveness of interventions aiming to increase the uptake of accident prevention behaviours in homes with children aged 0–5.

Methods

Two published random effects NMAs were replicated and carried out to assess the effectiveness of several interventions for increasing the uptake of accident prevention behaviours, focusing on the safe storage of other household products and stair gates outcomes. Threshold analysis was then applied to the NMAs to assess the robustness of the intervention recommendations made based on the results from the NMAs.

Results

The results of the NMAs indicated that complex intervention, including Education, Free/low-cost equipment, Fitting equipment and Home safety inspection, was the most effective intervention at promoting accident prevention behaviours for both outcomes. However, the threshold analyses highlighted that the intervention recommendation was robust for the stair gate outcome, but not robust for the safe storage of other household items outcome.

Conclusions

In our case study, threshold analysis allowed us to demonstrate that there was some discrepancy in the intervention recommendation for promoting accident prevention behaviours as the recommendation was robust for one outcome but not the other. Therefore, caution should be taken when considering such interventions in practice for the prevention of poisonings in homes with children aged 0–5. However, there can be some confidence in the use of this intervention in practice to promote the possession of stair gates to prevent falls in homes with children under 5. We have illustrated the potential benefit of threshold analysis in the context of public health and, therefore, encourage the use of the method in practice as a sensitivity analysis for NMA of public health interventions.

Better safe than sorry: Evaluating the implementation process of a home-visitation intervention aimed at preventing unintentional childhood injuries in the hospital setting

Background

Child home injuries prevention interventions have rarely been implemented in hospitals. The SHABI program ("Keeping our Children Safe"; in Hebrew: "SHomrim Al BetIchut Yeladenu") recruits at-risk families arriving with child injury to the Emergency Department. Medical/nursing students conduct two home visits four months apart, providing safety equipment and guidance. One hundred thirty-five families had a first visit and 98 completed the second. Fifty percentage of families were ultra-Orthodox Jews, 11% Arab, and 28% had ≥3 preschool children. We investigated SHABI's implementation using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR).

Methods

Between May 2018 and March 2021 SHABI was implemented in the Emergency Department of a hospital in Israel's northern periphery, an area with high child injury rates. The Implementation process was examined through Emergency Department medical records and tracking registries, hospital management, nurses', and home visitors' meetings notes (n = 9), and a research diary. Hospital's inner setting and SHABI's characteristics were evaluated through interviews with hospital management, nurses, and home visitors 8 months after baseline (n = 18). Home visitors' characteristics were evaluated through interviews, post-visit questionnaire on challenges encountered (n = 233), families' perceptions of SHABI and home visitors' skills through telephone interviews (n = 212); and home visitors awareness of dangers at home (n = 8) baseline and 8 months later. Qualitative data were analyzed through explanatory content analysis according to CFIR constructs. Quantitative data were analyzed using X2 and Wilcoxon test for dependent subgroups.

Results

Despite alignment between SHABI and the hospital's mission, structural hospital-community disconnect prevented implementation as planned, requiring adaptation and collaboration with the medical school to overcome this barrier. Recruitment was included in the initial patient triage process but was only partially successful. Medical/nursing students were recruited as home visitors, and following training proved competent. Children were a distraction during the visits, but home visitors developed strategies to overcome this.

Conclusions

Injury prevention programs in hospitals have significant benefits. Identifying implementation barriers and facilitators allowed implementers to make adaptations and cope with the innovative implementation setting. Models of cooperation between hospital, community and other clinical settings should be further examined.

Parents' attitudes as mediators between knowledge and behaviours in unintentional injuries at home of children aged 0-3 in Shanghai, Eastern China: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

Parental behaviours are important in preventing unintentional injury at home among young children. Previous research showed an inconsistent relationship between knowledge and behaviours, indicating that the mechanisms may vary for different behaviours. This study aimed to examine the mediating roles of different attitudes in the mechanism of knowledge acting on different behaviours.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Eastern China.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were recruited using stratified community-based sampling. A total of 488 parents of children aged 0-3 years participated in the study and 476 (97.5%) valid questionnaires were recovered.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Parents' knowledge, attitudes (including injury attribution, preventability and responsibility) and behaviours (including supervision behaviours, risky behaviours and providing a safe home environment).

RESULTS

The results of mediation analysis showed that the mediator variables were different for different behaviours and that all associations were positive. Parents' knowledge (β 0.19, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.24) and attitude of injury attribution (β 0.37, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.46) were directly associated with risky behaviours. Attitude of preventability was directly associated with parents' supervision behaviour (β 0.27, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.40). Parents' attitude of preventability mediated the positive association between knowledge, attitudes of injury attribution and responsibility, and supervision behaviours, as well as providing a safe home environment. In addition, the occurrence of child injuries at home was directly associated with home environment (β -0.41, 95% CI -0.82 to -0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The current findings confirm that attitudes play varying mediating roles between knowledge and different behaviours. An important recommendation is that parents' attitudes, especially towards preventability and responsibility, need to be considered when health providers develop health education programmes targeted at improving parental supervision behaviours and providing a safe home environment.

Network Meta-Analysis Techniques for Synthesizing Prevention Science Evidence

Network meta-analysis is a popular statistical technique for synthesizing evidence from studies comparing multiple interventions. Benefits of network meta-analysis, over more traditional pairwise meta-analysis approaches, include evaluating efficacy/safety of interventions within a single framework, increased precision, comparing pairs of interventions that have never been directly compared in a trial, and providing a hierarchy of interventions in terms of their effectiveness. Network meta-analysis is relatively underutilized in prevention science. This paper therefore presents a primer of network meta-analysis for prevention scientists who wish to apply this method or to critically appraise evidence from publications using the method. We introduce the key concepts and assumptions of network meta-analysis, namely, transitivity and consistency, and demonstrate their applicability to the field of prevention science. We then illustrate the method using a network meta-analysis examining the comparative effectiveness of brief alcohol interventions for preventing hazardous drinking among college students. We provide data and code for all examples. Finally, we discuss considerations that are particularly relevant in network meta-analyses in the field of prevention, such as including non-randomized evidence.

Varying Effect of a Randomized Toddler Home Safety Promotion Intervention Trial by Initial Home Safety Problems

OBJECTIVES

Toddlers are vulnerable to unintentional injuries. A safety intervention targeting low-income families of toddlers, was effective at improving home safety. The current study examined whether the effect varies by initial home safety problems.

METHODS

277 mother-toddler dyads recruited in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States during 2007-2010 were randomized into safety promotion (n = 91) or attention-control groups (n = 186). Observers rated participants' homes with a 9-item safety problem checklist at baseline, and at 6- and 12-months follow-up. Initial home safety problems were categorized as multiple (≥ 4 problems) and none/few (< 4). Linear mixed models assessed the moderating effect with a three-way interaction (time, intervention, and initial safety problems).

RESULTS

At 12 months, the intervention effect was stronger among families with multiple initial problems than no/few initial problems, with a reduction of 1.55 more problems among the families with multiple problems, compared to the families with no/few problems (b = - 1.55, SE = 0.62, p = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions targeting families with multiple safety problems may be more effective than universal programming.

Environmental change interventions to prevent unintentional home injuries among children in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Unintentional home injury is an important cause of death and disability among children, especially those living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This systematic review aimed to synthesize evidence about the effectiveness of environmental interventions to prevent unintentional child injury and/or reduce injury hazards in the home in LMICs.

METHODS

Seven electronic databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and controlled before and after (CBA) studies published up to 1 April 2018. Potentially eligible citations were screened by title and abstract and full texts of studies obtained. Synthesis was reported narratively, and where possible, meta-analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

Four studies met the inclusion criteria: One CBA study reported changes in injury incidence, and three RCTs reported changes in frequency of home hazards. In one study, child resistant containers were found effective in reducing the incidence of paraffin ingestion by 47% during and by 50% postintervention. A meta-analysis of two trials found that home inspection, safety education and safety devices reduced postintervention mean scores for poisoning hazards [mean difference (MD) -0.77; 95% CI [-1.36, -0.19]] and burn-related unsafe practices (MD -0.37; 95% CI [-0.66, -0.09]) but not for falls or electrical and paraffin burn hazards. A single trial found that home inspection and safety education reduced the postintervention mean scores for fall hazards (MD -0.5; 95% CI [-0.66, -0.33]) but not for ingestion hazards.

CONCLUSION

There is limited evidence that environmental change interventions reduce child injuries but evidence that they reduce some home hazards. More evidence is needed to determine if altering the physical home environment by removing potential hazards reduces injuries in LMICs.

Reducing unintentional injuries in under fives: Development and testing of a mobile phone app

BACKGROUND

Unintentional injuries are a leading cause of preventable death and a major cause of ill health and disability in children under 5 years of age. A health promotion mobile phone application, "Grow up Safely" (GUS), was developed to support parents and carers in reducing unintentional injuries in this population of children.

METHODS

A prototype of the mobile application was developed to deliver health education on unintentional injury prevention linked to stages of child development. In order to explore the usability of the app and refine its content, three focus groups were conducted with 15 mothers. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

The majority of participants reported previous use of health apps, mainly related to pregnancy and recommended by health professionals. The app was considered user-friendly and easy to navigate. Participants in two focus groups found the app informative and offered new information, and they would consider using it. Participants in the "young mum's" group considered the advice to be "common sense" but found the language too complex. All participants commented that further development of push-out notifications and endorsement by a reputable source would increase their engagement with the app.

CONCLUSION

The GUS mobile phone app, aimed at reducing unintentional injuries in children under five, was supported by mothers as a health promotion app. They would consider downloading it, particularly if recommended by a health professional or endorsed by a reputable organization. Further development is planned with push-out notifications and wider feasibility testing to engage targeted groups, such as young mothers, fathers, and other carers.

Network meta-analysis: users' guide for pediatricians

Background

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a powerful analytic tool that allows simultaneous comparison between several management/treatment alternatives even when direct comparisons of the alternatives (such as the case in which treatments are compared against placebo and have not been compared against each other) are unavailable. Though there are still a limited number of pediatric NMAs published, the rapid increase in NMAs in other areas suggests pediatricians will soon be frequently facing this new form of evidence summary.

Discussion

Evaluating the NMA evidence requires serial judgments on the creditability of the process of NMA conduct, and evidence quality assessment. First clinicians need to evaluate the basic standards applicable to any meta-analysis (e.g. comprehensive search, duplicate assessment of eligibility, risk of bias, and data abstraction). Then evaluate specific issues related to NMA including precision, transitivity, coherence, and rankings.

Conclusions

In this article we discuss how clinicians can evaluate the credibility of NMA methods, and how they can make judgments regarding the quality (certainty) of the evidence. We illustrate the concepts using recent pediatric NMA publications.

Comparative Effectiveness of Published Interventions for Elderly Fall Prevention: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Background: Falls are a major threat to older adults worldwide. Although various effective interventions have been developed, their comparative effectiveness remains unreported. Methods: A systematic review and network meta-analysis was conducted to determine the most effective interventions to prevent falls in community-dwelling adults aged 60 and over. Combined odds ratio (OR) and 95% credible interval (95% CrI) were calculated. Results: A total of 49 trials involving 27,740 participants and 9271 fallers were included. Compared to usual care, multifactorial interventions (MFI) demonstrated the greatest efficacy (OR: 0.64, 95% CrI: 0.53 to 0.77) followed by interventions combining education and exercise (EDU + EXC) (OR: 0.65, 95% CrI: 0.38 to 1.00) and interventions combining exercise and hazard assessment and modification (EXC + HAM) (OR: 0.66, 95% CrI: 0.40 to 1.04). The effect of medical care performed the worst (OR: 1.02, 95% CrI: 0.78 to 1.34). Model fit was good, inconsistency was low, and publication bias was considered absent. The overall quality of included trials was high. The pooled odds ratios and ranking probabilities remained relatively stable across all sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: MFI and exercise appear to be effective to reduce falls among older adults, and should be considered first as service delivery options. Further investigation is necessary to verify effectiveness and suitableness of the strategies to at-risk populations.

Keeping Children Safe: a multicentre programme of research to increase the evidence base for preventing unintentional injuries in the home in the under-fives

Background

Unintentional injuries among 0- to 4-year-olds are a major public health problem incurring substantial NHS, individual and societal costs. However, evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventative interventions is lacking.

Aim

To increase the evidence base for thermal injury, falls and poisoning prevention for the under-fives.

Methods

Six work streams comprising five multicentre case–control studies assessing risk and protective factors, a study measuring quality of life and injury costs, national surveys of children’s centres, interviews with children’s centre staff and parents, a systematic review of barriers to, and facilitators of, prevention and systematic overviews, meta-analyses and decision analyses of home safety interventions. Evidence from these studies informed the design of an injury prevention briefing (IPB) for children’s centres for preventing fire-related injuries and implementation support (training and facilitation). This was evaluated by a three-arm cluster randomised controlled trial comparing IPB and support (IPB+), IPB only (no support) and usual care. The primary outcome was parent-reported possession of a fire escape plan. Evidence from all work streams subsequently informed the design of an IPB for preventing thermal injuries, falls and poisoning.

Results

Modifiable risk factors for falls, poisoning and scalds were found. Most injured children and their families incurred small to moderate health-care and non-health-care costs, with a few incurring more substantial costs. Meta-analyses and decision analyses found that home safety interventions increased the use of smoke alarms and stair gates, promoted safe hot tap water temperatures, fire escape planning and storage of medicines and household products, and reduced baby walker use. Generally, more intensive interventions were the most effective, but these were not always the most cost-effective interventions. Children’s centre and parental barriers to, and facilitators of, injury prevention were identified. Children’s centres were interested in preventing injuries, and believed that they could prevent them, but few had an evidence-based strategic approach and they needed support to develop this. The IPB was implemented by children’s centres in both intervention arms, with greater implementation in the IPB+ arm. Compared with usual care, more IPB+ arm families received advice on key safety messages, and more families in each intervention arm attended fire safety sessions. The intervention did not increase the prevalence of fire escape plans [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) IPB only vs. usual care 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 1.49; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.41, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.20] but did increase the proportion of families reporting more fire escape behaviours (AOR IPB only vs. usual care 2.56, 95% CI 1.38 to 4.76; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.78, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.15). IPB-only families were less likely to report match play by children (AOR 0.27, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.94) and reported more bedtime fire safety routines (AOR for a 1-unit increase in the number of routines 1.59, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.31) than usual-care families. The IPB-only intervention was less costly and marginally more effective than usual care. The IPB+ intervention was more costly and marginally more effective than usual care.

Limitations

Our case–control studies demonstrate associations between modifiable risk factors and injuries but not causality. Some injury cost estimates are imprecise because of small numbers. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were limited by the quality of the included studies, the small numbers of studies reporting outcomes and significant heterogeneity, partly explained by differences in interventions. Network meta-analysis (NMA) categorised interventions more finely, but some variation remained. Decision analyses are likely to underestimate cost-effectiveness for a number of reasons. IPB implementation varied between children’s centres. Greater implementation may have resulted in changes in more fire safety behaviours.

Conclusions

Our studies provide new evidence about the effectiveness of, as well as economic evaluation of, home safety interventions. Evidence-based resources for preventing thermal injuries, falls and scalds were developed. Providing such resources to children’s centres increases their injury prevention activity and some parental safety behaviours.

Future work

Further randomised controlled trials, meta-analyses and NMAs are needed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home safety interventions. Further work is required to measure NHS, family and societal costs and utility decrements for childhood home injuries and to evaluate complex multicomponent interventions such as home safety schemes using a single analytical model.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN65067450 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01452191.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full inProgramme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 5, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A randomised safety promotion intervention trial among low-income families with toddlers

BACKGROUND

Toddler-aged children are vulnerable to unintentional injuries, especially those in low-income families.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effectiveness of an intervention grounded in social cognitive theory (SCT) on the reduction of home safety problems among low-income families with toddlers.

METHODS

277 low-income mother-toddler dyads were randomised into a safety promotion intervention (n=91) or an attention-control group (n=186). Mothers in the safety promotion intervention group received an eight-session, group-delivered safety intervention targeting fire prevention, fall prevention, poison control and car seat use, through health education, goal-setting and social support. Data collectors observed participants' homes and completed a nine-item checklist of home safety problems at study enrolment (baseline), 6 and 12 months after baseline. A total score was summed, with high scores indicating more problems. Linear mixed models compared the changes over time in home safety problems between intervention and control groups.

RESULTS

The intent-to-treat analysis indicated that the safety promotion intervention group significantly reduced safety problems to a greater degree than the attention-control group at the 12-month follow-up (between-group difference in change over time β=-0.54, 95% CI -0.05 to -1.03, p=0.035), with no significant differences at the 6-month follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

A safety promotion intervention built on principles of SCT has the potential to promote toddlers' home safety environment. Future studies should examine additional strategies to determine whether better penetration/compliance can produce more clinically important improvement in home safety practices.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02615158; post-results.

Country level economic disparities in child injury mortality

BACKGROUND

Injuries are a neglected cause of child mortality globally and the burden is unequally distributed in resource poor settings. The aim of this study is to explore the share and distribution of child injury mortality across country economic levels and the correlation between country economic level and injuries.

METHODS

All-cause and injury mortality rates per 100,000 were extracted for 187 countries for the 1-4 age group and under 5s from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Countries were grouped into four economic levels. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was used to determine correlation with injury mortality.

RESULTS

For all regions and country economic levels, the share of injuries in all-cause mortality was greater when considering the 1-4 age group than under 5s, ranging from 36.6% in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries to 10.6% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Except for Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a graded association between country economic level and 1-4 injury mortality across regions, with all low-income countries having the highest rates. Except for the two regions with the highest overall injury mortality rates, there is a significant negative correlation between GDP and injury mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern Europe/Central Asia, Asia East/South-East and Pacific and North Africa/ Middle East.

CONCLUSIONS

Child injury mortality is unevenly distributed across regions and country economic level to the detriment of poorer countries. A significant negative correlation exists between GDP and injury in all regions, exception for the most resource poor where the burden of injuries is highest.