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Stewart SL, Kagawa RMC, Buggs SAL, Wright MA, Wintemute GJ. Drugs, guns, and violent crime in California. THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DRUG POLICY 2024; 127:104413. [PMID: 38640707 DOI: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2023] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 04/21/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is evidence linking use of controlled substances with perpetration of interpersonal violence. While the United States constitution protects the right to own a firearm, federal law prohibits firearm purchase and possession by persons believed to be at high risk for violence, including those who use controlled substances unlawfully. METHODS We report here the results of a 13-year prospective observational study on the risk of violent crime associated with a history of criminal drug charges in a cohort of 79,678 legal purchasers of handguns in California in 2001. The main outcomes were post-purchase charges for any violent crime, violent Crime Index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), and firearm-related violent crimes. The main exposure of interest was a history of pre-purchase charge(s) for drug-related offenses; we examined as a secondary exposure a history of marijuana-related charges. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards multiple events models. RESULTS We found that legal handgun purchasers in California with a history of drug-related charges, even those with marijuana charges only, had triple the risk of a post-purchase violent crime charge compared to purchasers with no criminal charges (drug charges only: aHR=2.9, 95 % CI 2.2-3.8; marijuana charges only: aHR=3.3, 95 % CI 1.8-6.0). In addition, a criminal history of drug charges only vs. no criminal history was associated with increased risk of one or more violent crime charges after the first post-purchase arrest event (aHR=1.6, 95 % CI 1.2-2.3). CONCLUSION It is incumbent on researchers and policy makers to understand the nature and causes of this risk in order to take effective steps towards mitigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan L Stewart
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, Medical Sciences 1-C, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
| | - Rose M C Kagawa
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817, USA
| | - Shani A L Buggs
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817, USA
| | - Mona A Wright
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817, USA
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Shev AB, Wright MA, Kagawa RMC, Wintemute GJ. Importance of categories of crime for predicting future violent crime among handgun purchasers in California. Inj Epidemiol 2023; 10:57. [PMID: 37941024 PMCID: PMC10634023 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-023-00462-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prohibiting the purchase and possession of firearms by those at risk of violence is an established approach to preventing firearm violence. Prior studies of legal purchasers have focused on convictions for specific crimes, such as violent misdemeanors and driving under the influence (DUI). We broaden that line of inquiry by investigating and comparing the associations between prior arrests for most categories of crime and subsequent arrest for violent offenses among legal handgun purchasers in California. METHODS In this longitudinal cohort study of 79,678 legal handgun purchasers in California in 2001, we group arrest charges prior to their first purchases in 2001 according to categories defined by the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Handbook. We use a gradient boosting machine to identify categories of offenses that are most important for predicting arrest for violent crime following firearm purchase. For each category identified, we then estimate the difference in risk of subsequent arrest for a violent offense using survival regression models. RESULTS We identified eight crime categories with high predictive importance: simple assaults, aggravated assaults, vehicle violations, weapon, other crimes, theft, drug abuse, and DUI. Compared to purchasers with no prior arrests, those with a prior arrest for any one of the eight important categories and no other categories were found to be at increased risk of arrest for a Crime Index-listed violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), with the greatest estimated risk corresponding to the simple assault UCR category (adjusted hazard ratio 4.0; 95% CI 2.8-5.9). Simple assault was also associated with the greatest risk for subsequent arrest for firearm violence (adjusted hazard ratio 4.6; 95% CI 2.4-9.0) and any violent offense (adjusted hazard ratio 3.7; 95% CI 2.7-5.0). CONCLUSION The findings of this study suggest that prior arrests for a broad array of crimes, both violent and non-violent, are associated with risk of subsequent violent crimes, including Crime Index-listed violent crimes and firearm violence, among legal purchasers of firearms. Current policies aimed at restricting access to firearms for individuals at increased risk of violence should be re-examined considering these findings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aaron B Shev
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
| | - Mona A Wright
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Rose M C Kagawa
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
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Tomsich EA, Schleimer J, Wright MA, Stewart SL, Wintemute GJ, Kagawa RMC. Intimate Partner Violence and Subsequent Violent Offending Among Handgun Purchasers. JOURNAL OF INTERPERSONAL VIOLENCE 2022; 37:NP21447-NP21475. [PMID: 34894835 DOI: 10.1177/08862605211057268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) often reoffend, and firearm access increases risk of severe injury or fatality. Prior research identifies an association between a history of violent misdemeanor convictions among handgun purchasers and increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent crime; the risk associated specifically with an IPV criminal history remains largely unexplored. The current study examined a cohort of 76,311 California adults who legally purchased a handgun in 2001 and followed them through 2013. Compared with purchasers who had no criminal history at the time of purchase, those with a history of only IPV (n = 178) charges were at increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent Crime Index crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-5.1), any violent crime (AHR, 3.2; 95% CI: 2.0-5.1), and an IPV crime (AHR, 5.2; 95% CI: 3.0-9.0). Purchasers with both IPV and non-IPV charges demonstrated the greatest risk of re-arrest relative to those with no criminal history. Despite the strength of the relationship between IPV and subsequent arrest, a small proportion of handgun purchasers with an IPV criminal history were re-arrested for firearm violence crimes, limiting application for risk assessment purposes. Results affirm prior research identifying IPV as a risk factor for future offending.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth A Tomsich
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, 8789UC Davis Medical Center, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Julia Schleimer
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, 8789UC Davis Medical Center, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Mona A Wright
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, 8789UC Davis Medical Center, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Susan L Stewart
- Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, UC Davis Medical Center, 8789University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, 8789UC Davis Medical Center, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Rose M C Kagawa
- Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, UC Davis Medical Center, 8789University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
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Pallin R, Wright MA, Tomsich EA, Wintemute GJ, Stewart S, Kagawa RMC. Prior Drug-Related Criminal Charges and Risk for Intimate Partner Violence Perpetration Among Authorized Purchasers of Handguns in California. JOURNAL OF INTERPERSONAL VIOLENCE 2022; 37:NP23352-NP23373. [PMID: 35333106 DOI: 10.1177/08862605221078811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a considerable public health problem in the US, and evidence suggests that both drugs and firearms contribute to the risk of IPV and its severity. This study uses a retrospective, longitudinal cohort design to explore the association between past arrests, charges incurred in the legal process, and convictions for drug-related crimes, and risk of future arrest for IPV among legal handgun purchasers. The cohort included all legal purchasers of handguns in California in 2001 between the ages of 21 and 49 (n = 79,678), 156 of whom had pre-purchase drug charges and post-purchase IPV charges. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with age at time of handgun purchase, sex, and race/ethnicity, and an array of community characteristics as covariates. Over the study period (2001-2013), in comparison to handgun purchasers who had no charges or convictions prior to their index purchase, risk for future IPV arrest was increased for purchasers whose only prior charges were drug-related (aHR = 3.4 [95% CI: 2.4-4.9]) and purchasers who had both prior drug- and non-drug related charges (aHR = 4.9 [95% CI: 4.1-6.0]). The magnitude of the risk ratio was greater when multiple drug types were involved and when the person had been charged with both the use and sale of drugs. Our findings suggest that, among legal handgun purchasers, prior drug charges are associated with future risk of IPV arrests or convictions. Given the established link between firearm access and IPV severity and fatality, these findings may inform the development and enforcement of policies that reduce firearm access for those at elevated risk of perpetrating intimate partner violence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rocco Pallin
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, 8789University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Mona A Wright
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, 8789University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Elizabeth A Tomsich
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, 8789University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, 8789University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Susan Stewart
- Department of Population Health and Reproduction, School of Veterinary Medicine and Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, 8789University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Rose M C Kagawa
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, 8789University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
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Kagawa RMC, Stewart S, Wright MA, Shev AB, Pear VA, McCort CD, Pallin R, Asif-Sattar R, Sohl S, Kass PH, Cerdá M, Gruenewald P, Studdert DM, Wintemute GJ. Association of Prior Convictions for Driving Under the Influence With Risk of Subsequent Arrest for Violent Crimes Among Handgun Purchasers. JAMA Intern Med 2020; 180:35-43. [PMID: 31566654 PMCID: PMC6777266 DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2019.4491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Alcohol use is a risk factor for firearm-related violence, and firearm owners are more likely than others to report risky drinking behaviors. OBJECTIVE To study the association between prior convictions for driving under the influence (DUI) and risk of subsequent arrest for violent crimes among handgun purchasers. DESIGN In this retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, 79 678 individuals were followed up from their first handgun purchase in 2001 through 2013. The study cohort included all legally authorized handgun purchasers in California aged 21 to 49 years at the time of purchase in 2001. Individuals were identified using the California Department of Justice (CA DOJ) Dealer's Record of Sale (DROS) database, which retains information on all legal handgun transfers in the state. EXPOSURES The primary exposure was DUI conviction prior to the first handgun purchase in 2001, as recorded in the CA DOJ Criminal History Information System. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prespecified outcomes included arrests for violent crimes listed in the Crime Index published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault), firearm-related violent crimes, and any violent crimes. RESULTS Of the study population (N=79 678), 91.0% were males and 68.9% were white individuals; the median age was 34 (range, 21-49) years. The analytic sample for multivariable models included 78 878 purchasers after exclusions. Compared with purchasers who had no prior criminal history, those with prior DUI convictions and no other criminal history were at increased risk of arrest for a Crime Index-listed violent crime (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.6; 95% CI, 1.7-4.1), a firearm-related violent crime (AHR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3-6.4), and any violent crime (AHR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.4-4.5). Among purchasers with a history of arrests or convictions for crimes other than DUI, associations specifically with DUI conviction remained. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study's findings suggest that prior DUI convictions may be associated with the risk of subsequent violence, including firearm-related violence, among legal purchasers of handguns. Although the magnitude was diminished, the risk associated with DUI conviction remained elevated even among those with a history of arrests or convictions for crimes of other types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rose M C Kagawa
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Susan Stewart
- Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento
| | - Mona A Wright
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Aaron B Shev
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Veronica A Pear
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Rocco Pallin
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Rameesha Asif-Sattar
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Sydney Sohl
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Philip H Kass
- Department of Population Health and Reproduction, School of Veterinary Medicine and Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Magdalena Cerdá
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis.,Department of Population Health, New York University, New York
| | - Paul Gruenewald
- Prevention Research Center, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Berkeley, California
| | - David M Studdert
- Stanford Law School, Stanford University, Stanford, California.,Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
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Laqueur H, Kagawa RMC, Wright M, Wintemute GJ. Alcohol-Related Crimes And Risk Of Arrest For Intimate Partner Violence Among California Handgun Purchasers. Health Aff (Millwood) 2019; 38:1719-1726. [DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00608] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Laqueur
- Hannah Laqueur is an assistant professor of emergency medicine at the University of California (UC) Davis, in Sacramento
| | - Rose M. C. Kagawa
- Rose M. C. Kagawa is an assistant professor of emergency medicine at UC Davis
| | - Mona Wright
- Mona Wright is a research analyst in the Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis
| | - Garen J. Wintemute
- Garen J. Wintemute is the Baker-Teret Chair in Violence Prevention and a professor of emergency medicine at the UC Davis. He directs the UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program and the University of California Firearm Violence Research Center
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Prior Arrest, Substance Use, Mental Disorder, and Intent-Specific Firearm Injury. Am J Prev Med 2018; 55:298-307. [PMID: 30122213 DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2018.04.041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2017] [Revised: 03/10/2018] [Accepted: 04/09/2018] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Substance use, mental disorders, and arrest are markers of increased firearm injury risk. It is unclear how these markers vary by intent. Examining these interrelated factors together can clarify their associations with assault-related, self-inflicted, unintentional, and legal intervention firearm injuries, informing intent-specific interventions. METHODS In 2017-2018, 2-year diagnosis and arrest histories of intent-specific firearm injury cases were compared with those of unintentionally injured motor vehicle collision passenger controls. Fatal and nonfatal firearm and motor vehicle collision injury records in Seattle (2010-2014) were linked to statewide hospitalization and arrest records. Multinomial logistic regression models compared odds of prior arrest, substance use, and mental disorder diagnoses among intent-specific firearm injury cases relative to controls, adjusting for age, race, and gender. RESULTS A total of 763 cases and 335 controls were identified. Unintentional and self-inflicted cases did not differ significantly from controls in arrest history. Legal intervention cases resembled assault-related cases in their arrest history, and self-inflicted cases in their hospitalization history. The legal intervention cases were more likely than controls to have a prior felony arrest (OR=7.72, 95% CI=2.63, 20.97), and diagnoses involving alcohol (OR=4.06, 95% CI=1.04, 15.84); cannabis (OR=11.00, 95% CI=1.01, 119.36); depression/anxiety (OR=7.22, 95% CI=1.89, 27.67); psychosis (OR=6.99, 95% CI=1.35, 36.24); or conduct disorder (OR=22.01, 95% CI=1.44, 335.93). CONCLUSIONS Individuals with intent-specific firearm injuries have distinct patterns of prior substance use, mental disorder, and arrest. Many injuries occur after a series of encounters with institutions meant to help individuals during crises that can fail to provide longer-term solutions.
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Wintemute GJ, Wright MA, Castillo-Carniglia A, Shev A, Cerdá M. Firearms, alcohol and crime: convictions for driving under the influence (DUI) and other alcohol-related crimes and risk for future criminal activity among authorised purchasers of handguns. Inj Prev 2017; 24:68-72. [DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2016-042181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2016] [Revised: 12/14/2016] [Accepted: 12/30/2016] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Firearm violence frequently involves alcohol, but there are no studies of misuse of alcohol and risk for future violence among firearm owners. We examined the association between prior convictions for alcohol-related crimes, chiefly driving under the influence (DUI), and risk of subsequent arrest among 4066 individuals who purchased handguns in California in 1977. During follow-up through 1991, 32.8% of those with prior alcohol-related convictions and 5.7% of those with no prior criminal history were arrested for a violent or firearm-related crime; 15.9% and 2.7%, respectively, were arrested for murder, rape, robbery or aggravated assault. Prior alcohol-related convictions were associated with a fourfold to fivefold increase in risk of incident arrest for a violent or firearm-related crime, a relative increase greater than that seen for age, sex or prior violence. Prior convictions for alcohol-related crime may be an important predictor of risk for future criminal activity among purchasers of firearms.
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