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Robinson SL, McCort CD, Smirniotis C, Wintemute GJ, Laqueur HS. Purchaser, firearm, and retailer characteristics associated with crime gun recovery: a longitudinal analysis of firearms sold in California from 1996 to 2021. Inj Epidemiol 2024; 11:8. [PMID: 38409066 PMCID: PMC10898164 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00491-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/17/2024] [Indexed: 02/28/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Firearm violence is a major cause of death and injury in the United States. Tracking the movement of firearms from legal purchase to use in crimes can help inform prevention of firearm injuries and deaths. The last state-wide studies analyzing crime gun recoveries used data from over 20 years ago; thus, an update is needed. METHODS We used data for 5,247,348 handgun and 2,868,713 long gun transactions and law enforcement recoveries from California crime gun recovery (2010-2021) and California's Dealer Records of Sales records. Covariates included characteristics of dealership sales, firearms and their transactions, and purchaser's demographic characteristics, purchasing history, criminal history (from firearm purchaser criminal history records), and neighborhood socioeconomic status. Analyses for handguns and long guns was conducted separately. In multivariable analysis, we included correlates into a Cox proportional hazard model accounting for left truncation and clustering between the same firearm, purchaser, dealerships, and geographic location. Covariates that remained significant (P < 0.05) were retained. For handguns, we evaluated associations of violent and weapons crimes separately. In supplementary analyses, we examined interactions by purchasers' race and ethnicity. RESULTS In total, 38,441 handguns (0.80%) and 6,806 long guns (0.24%) were recovered in crimes. A firearm dealer's sales volume, percent of transactions that were denials, pawns, pawn redemptions, and firearms that became crime guns were each positively associated with firearm recovery in crime. Handguns that were inexpensive, larger caliber, and that had been reported lost or stolen were positively associated with recovery in crimes. Purchaser characteristics associated with crime gun recovery included: being younger, female, Black, Hispanic, Native American or Pacific Islander, or other race/ethnicity (vs white), having previous arrests, living in close proximity to the firearm dealership, and living in a more socially vulnerable census tract. Associations with race and ethnicity were modified by previous infraction-only arrests. CONCLUSIONS This study confirms that many previously studied correlates of firearm recovery are still relevant today. We were able to expand on previous research by examining novel associations including purchasers' criminal history and previous firearm transaction history. These results provide evidence that can be used to disrupt firearm use in crimes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sonia L Robinson
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Colette Smirniotis
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Hannah S Laqueur
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
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2
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Schleimer JP, Pear VA, McCort CD, Shev AB, De Biasi A, Tomsich E, Buggs S, Laqueur HS, Wintemute GJ. Unemployment and Crime in US Cities During the Coronavirus Pandemic. J Urban Health 2022; 99:82-91. [PMID: 35084658 PMCID: PMC8793820 DOI: 10.1007/s11524-021-00605-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/10/2021] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Unemployment and violence both increased during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States (US), but no studies to our knowledge have examined their association. Using data for 16 US cities from January 2018 to July 2020, we estimated the association between acute changes in unemployment during the coronavirus pandemic and violent and acquisitive crime. We used negative binomial regression models and parametric g-computation to estimate average differences in crime incidents if the highest and lowest levels of unemployment observed in each city had been sustained across the exposure period (March-July 2020), compared with observed unemployment in each city-month. During the pandemic, the percentage of the adult population who were unemployed was 8.1 percentage points higher than expected, on average. Increases in unemployment were associated with increases in firearm violence and homicide. For example, we estimated an average increase of 3.3 firearm violence incidents (95% CI: - 0.2, 6.7) and 2.0 homicides (95% CI: - 0.2, 3.9) per city-month from March to July 2020 if all cities experienced their highest versus observed level of unemployment. There was no association between unemployment and aggravated assault or any acquisitive crime. Findings suggest that the sharp rise in unemployment during the pandemic may have contributed to increases in firearm violence and homicide, but not other crime. Additional research is needed on mechanisms of association, generalizability, and modifying factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia P Schleimer
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.
| | - Veronica A Pear
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Aaron B Shev
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Alaina De Biasi
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Elizabeth Tomsich
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Shani Buggs
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Hannah S Laqueur
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
- California Firearm Violence Research Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
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3
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Schleimer JP, Buggs SA, McCort CD, Pear VA, Biasi AD, Tomsich E, Shev AB, Laqueur HS, Wintemute GJ. Neighborhood Racial and Economic Segregation and Disparities in Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Am J Public Health 2022; 112:144-153. [PMID: 34882429 PMCID: PMC8713621 DOI: 10.2105/ajph.2021.306540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Objectives. To describe associations between neighborhood racial and economic segregation and violence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. For 13 US cities, we obtained zip code-level data on 5 violence outcomes from March through July 2018 through 2020. Using negative binomial regressions and marginal contrasts, we estimated differences between quintiles of racial, economic, and racialized economic segregation using the Index of Concentration at the Extremes as a measure of neighborhood privilege (1) in 2020 and (2) relative to 2018 through 2019 (difference-in-differences). Results. In 2020, violence was higher in less-privileged neighborhoods than in the most privileged. For example, if all zip codes were in the least privileged versus most privileged quintile of racialized economic segregation, we estimated 146.2 additional aggravated assaults (95% confidence interval = 112.4, 205.8) per zip code on average across cities. Differences over time in less-privileged zip codes were greater than differences over time in the most privileged for firearm violence, aggravated assault, and homicide. Conclusions. Marginalized communities endure endemically high levels of violence. The events of 2020 exacerbated disparities in several forms of violence. Public Health Implications. To reduce violence and related disparities, immediate and long-term investments in low-income neighborhoods of color are warranted. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):144-153. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306540).
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia P Schleimer
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
| | - Shani A Buggs
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
| | - Christopher D McCort
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
| | - Veronica A Pear
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
| | - Alaina De Biasi
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
| | - Elizabeth Tomsich
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
| | - Aaron B Shev
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
| | - Hannah S Laqueur
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- All authors are with the Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, and the California Firearm Violence Research Center
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Schleimer JP, McCort CD, Tomsich EA, Pear VA, De Biasi A, Buggs S, Laqueur HS, Shev AB, Wintemute GJ. Physical Distancing, Violence, and Crime in US Cities during the Coronavirus Pandemic. J Urban Health 2021; 98:772-776. [PMID: 34845654 PMCID: PMC8629337 DOI: 10.1007/s11524-021-00593-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Violent crime increased and most property crime decreased in many United States (US) cities during the coronavirus pandemic. Using negative binomial regressions, we examined the association between physical distancing (a central coronavirus containment strategy) and crime within 16 large cities (in 12 US states and the District of Columbia) through July 2020. Physical distancing was measured with aggregated smartphone data and defined as the average change in the percentage of the population staying completely at home. Outcome data were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive and city open data portals. In multivariable models, increases in the percentage of the population staying home were associated with decreases in reported incidents of aggravated assault, interpersonal firearm violence, theft, rape, and robbery, and increases in arson, burglary, and motor vehicle theft. Results suggest that changes in the frequency of interpersonal interactions affected crime during the coronavirus pandemic. More research is needed on the specificity of these assocations and their underlying mechanisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia P Schleimer
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA. .,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA.
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Elizabeth A Tomsich
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Veronica A Pear
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Alaina De Biasi
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Shani Buggs
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Hannah S Laqueur
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Aaron B Shev
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.,California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
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5
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Schleimer JP, McCort CD, Shev AB, Pear VA, Tomsich E, De Biasi A, Buggs S, Laqueur HS, Wintemute GJ. Firearm purchasing and firearm violence during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States: a cross-sectional study. Inj Epidemiol 2021; 8:43. [PMID: 34225798 PMCID: PMC8256207 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-021-00339-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Firearm violence is a significant public health problem in the United States. A surge in firearm purchasing following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic may have contributed to an increase in firearm violence. We sought to estimate the state-level association between firearm purchasing and interpersonal firearm violence during the pandemic. Methods Cross-sectional study of the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia from January 2018 through July 2020. Data were obtained from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (a proxy for firearm purchasing) and the Gun Violence Archive. Using negative binomial regression models, we estimated the association between cumulative excess firearm purchases in March through July 2020 (measured as the difference between observed rates and those expected from autoregressive integrated moving average models) and injuries (including nonfatal and fatal) from intentional, interpersonal firearm violence (non-domestic and domestic violence). Results We estimated that there were 4.3 million excess firearm purchases nationally from March through July 2020 and a total of 4075 more firearm injuries than expected from April through July. We found no relationship between state-level excess purchasing and non-domestic firearm violence, e.g., each excess purchase per 100 population was associated with a rate ratio (RR) of firearm injury from non-domestic violence of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.50–1.02) in April; 0.99 (95% CI: 0.72–1.25) in May; 1.10 (95% CI: 0.93–1.32) in June; and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.85–1.12) in July. Excess firearm purchasing within states was associated with an increase in firearm injuries from domestic violence in April (RR: 2.60; 95% CI: 1.32–5.93) and May (RR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.19–2.91), though estimates were sensitive to model specification. Conclusions Nationwide, firearm purchasing and firearm violence increased substantially during the first months of the coronavirus pandemic. At the state level, the magnitude of the increase in purchasing was not associated with the magnitude of the increase in firearm violence. Increases in purchasing may have contributed to additional firearm injuries from domestic violence in April and May. Results suggest much of the rise in firearm violence during our study period was attributable to other factors, indicating a need for additional research. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40621-021-00339-5.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia P Schleimer
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA. .,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Aaron B Shev
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Veronica A Pear
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Elizabeth Tomsich
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Alaina De Biasi
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Shani Buggs
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Hannah S Laqueur
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.,University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
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6
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Schleimer JP, McCort CD, Shev AB, Pear VA, Tomsich E, De Biasi A, Buggs S, Laqueur HS, Wintemute GJ. Firearm purchasing and firearm violence during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States: a cross-sectional study. Inj Epidemiol 2021; 8:43. [PMID: 34225798 DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.02.20145508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 05/23/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Firearm violence is a significant public health problem in the United States. A surge in firearm purchasing following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic may have contributed to an increase in firearm violence. We sought to estimate the state-level association between firearm purchasing and interpersonal firearm violence during the pandemic. METHODS Cross-sectional study of the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia from January 2018 through July 2020. Data were obtained from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (a proxy for firearm purchasing) and the Gun Violence Archive. Using negative binomial regression models, we estimated the association between cumulative excess firearm purchases in March through July 2020 (measured as the difference between observed rates and those expected from autoregressive integrated moving average models) and injuries (including nonfatal and fatal) from intentional, interpersonal firearm violence (non-domestic and domestic violence). RESULTS We estimated that there were 4.3 million excess firearm purchases nationally from March through July 2020 and a total of 4075 more firearm injuries than expected from April through July. We found no relationship between state-level excess purchasing and non-domestic firearm violence, e.g., each excess purchase per 100 population was associated with a rate ratio (RR) of firearm injury from non-domestic violence of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.50-1.02) in April; 0.99 (95% CI: 0.72-1.25) in May; 1.10 (95% CI: 0.93-1.32) in June; and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.85-1.12) in July. Excess firearm purchasing within states was associated with an increase in firearm injuries from domestic violence in April (RR: 2.60; 95% CI: 1.32-5.93) and May (RR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.19-2.91), though estimates were sensitive to model specification. CONCLUSIONS Nationwide, firearm purchasing and firearm violence increased substantially during the first months of the coronavirus pandemic. At the state level, the magnitude of the increase in purchasing was not associated with the magnitude of the increase in firearm violence. Increases in purchasing may have contributed to additional firearm injuries from domestic violence in April and May. Results suggest much of the rise in firearm violence during our study period was attributable to other factors, indicating a need for additional research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia P Schleimer
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Aaron B Shev
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Veronica A Pear
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Elizabeth Tomsich
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Alaina De Biasi
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Shani Buggs
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Hannah S Laqueur
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center at UC Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA
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Abstract
IMPORTANCE Little is known about nonfatal firearm injuries in the United States, and national estimates based on emergency department samples may not be accurate. OBJECTIVE To describe the incidence and distribution of nonfatal firearm injuries and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for firearm injuries by external cause of injury code within California overall and by race/ethnicity, including an assessment of trends over time and geographic variation within the state. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This serial cross-sectional study used complete statewide data for firearm-related mortality, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations among California residents from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2015, to analyze incidence, distribution, and CFRs of firearm injury. Data were analyzed from 2018 to 2019. EXPOSURES All individuals in California with a firearm injury based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision or International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes were included. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Counts and rates of nonfatal firearm injuries overall and stratified by external cause, sex, and race/ethnicity; total and clinical CFRs. Clinical CFR was calculated based on individuals treated in emergency departments or hospitals. RESULTS Over the study period, there were 81 085 firearm-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations among individuals with a mean (SD) age of 27.5 (11.9) years, 72 567 (89.6%) of whom were men. Nonfatal firearm injuries in California decreased by 38.1% between 2005 and 2015, driven by a 46.4% decrease in assaultive injuries. Self-inflicted injuries and unintentional injuries remained relatively stable. The overall CFR for firearm injuries increased from 27.6% in 2005 to 32.2% in 2015 for a relative increase of 20.7%, while the clinical CFR remained stable between 7.0% and 9.0%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These findings suggest that although the number of firearm injuries has decreased in California, the lethality of these injuries has not. Similar studies from other states could provide more information about these trends nationwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarabeth A. Spitzer
- Now with the Department of Surgery, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
| | - Veronica A. Pear
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento
| | - Christopher D. McCort
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento
| | - Garen J. Wintemute
- University of California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento
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8
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Pear VA, McCort CD, Li Y, Beckett L, Tancredi D, Studdert DM, Kass PH, Pierce GL, Braga AA, Wright MA, Laqueur HS, Kravitz-Wirtz N, Wintemute GJ. Armed and prohibited: characteristics of unlawful owners of legally purchased firearms. Inj Prev 2020; 27:145-149. [PMID: 32156740 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2019] [Revised: 01/21/2020] [Accepted: 01/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A substantial proportion of individuals who lawfully purchase firearms later become unlawful owners ('prohibited firearm owners'), usually following events associated with an increased risk for future violence. This high-risk population has not previously been described. We aimed to characterise all individuals in California's Armed and Prohibited Persons System (APPS), a statewide programme for recovering firearms from individuals who legally purchased them and later became prohibited from ownership. METHODS We used univariate and bivariate statistics to describe and compare prohibited firearm owners in APPS with a random sample of non-prohibited firearm owners in relation to age, sex, race/ethnicity and type of firearms owned as of 1 February 2015. We also characterised the geographical distribution of prohibited firearm owners and described their prohibitions. RESULTS Of the 18 976 prohibited firearm owners, most were men (93%), half were white (53%) and the mean age was 47 years. Prohibited firearm owners were more likely to be male and to be black or Hispanic people than non-prohibited owners. Both prohibited and non-prohibited firearm owners had an average of 2.6 firearms, mostly handguns. Nearly half (48%) of prohibited firearm owners had a felony conviction. Extrapolating from our findings, we estimated that there are approximately 100 000 persons in the USA who unlawfully maintained ownership of their firearms following a felony conviction. CONCLUSIONS Retention of firearms among persons who become lawfully prohibited from possessing them is common in California. Given the nationwide dearth of a programme to recover such weapons, this is likely true in other states as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veronica A Pear
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Yueju Li
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Davis, California, USA
| | - Laurel Beckett
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Davis, California, USA
| | - Daniel Tancredi
- Department of Pediatrics, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - David M Studdert
- Center for Health Policy, Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford Medicine, Stanford, California, USA.,Stanford Law School, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Philip H Kass
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Davis, California, USA
| | - Glenn L Pierce
- School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Anthony A Braga
- School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Mona A Wright
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Hannah S Laqueur
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Nicole Kravitz-Wirtz
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, California, USA
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Kagawa RMC, Stewart S, Wright MA, Shev AB, Pear VA, McCort CD, Pallin R, Asif-Sattar R, Sohl S, Kass PH, Cerdá M, Gruenewald P, Studdert DM, Wintemute GJ. Association of Prior Convictions for Driving Under the Influence With Risk of Subsequent Arrest for Violent Crimes Among Handgun Purchasers. JAMA Intern Med 2020; 180:35-43. [PMID: 31566654 PMCID: PMC6777266 DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2019.4491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Alcohol use is a risk factor for firearm-related violence, and firearm owners are more likely than others to report risky drinking behaviors. OBJECTIVE To study the association between prior convictions for driving under the influence (DUI) and risk of subsequent arrest for violent crimes among handgun purchasers. DESIGN In this retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, 79 678 individuals were followed up from their first handgun purchase in 2001 through 2013. The study cohort included all legally authorized handgun purchasers in California aged 21 to 49 years at the time of purchase in 2001. Individuals were identified using the California Department of Justice (CA DOJ) Dealer's Record of Sale (DROS) database, which retains information on all legal handgun transfers in the state. EXPOSURES The primary exposure was DUI conviction prior to the first handgun purchase in 2001, as recorded in the CA DOJ Criminal History Information System. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prespecified outcomes included arrests for violent crimes listed in the Crime Index published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault), firearm-related violent crimes, and any violent crimes. RESULTS Of the study population (N=79 678), 91.0% were males and 68.9% were white individuals; the median age was 34 (range, 21-49) years. The analytic sample for multivariable models included 78 878 purchasers after exclusions. Compared with purchasers who had no prior criminal history, those with prior DUI convictions and no other criminal history were at increased risk of arrest for a Crime Index-listed violent crime (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.6; 95% CI, 1.7-4.1), a firearm-related violent crime (AHR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3-6.4), and any violent crime (AHR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.4-4.5). Among purchasers with a history of arrests or convictions for crimes other than DUI, associations specifically with DUI conviction remained. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study's findings suggest that prior DUI convictions may be associated with the risk of subsequent violence, including firearm-related violence, among legal purchasers of handguns. Although the magnitude was diminished, the risk associated with DUI conviction remained elevated even among those with a history of arrests or convictions for crimes of other types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rose M C Kagawa
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Susan Stewart
- Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento
| | - Mona A Wright
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Aaron B Shev
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Veronica A Pear
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Rocco Pallin
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Rameesha Asif-Sattar
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Sydney Sohl
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Philip H Kass
- Department of Population Health and Reproduction, School of Veterinary Medicine and Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
| | - Magdalena Cerdá
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis.,Department of Population Health, New York University, New York
| | - Paul Gruenewald
- Prevention Research Center, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Berkeley, California
| | - David M Studdert
- Stanford Law School, Stanford University, Stanford, California.,Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Garen J Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis
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10
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Laqueur HS, Kagawa RMC, McCort CD, Pallin R, Wintemute G. The impact of spikes in handgun acquisitions on firearm-related harms. Inj Epidemiol 2019; 6:35. [PMID: 31463175 PMCID: PMC6709554 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-019-0212-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2019] [Accepted: 07/10/2019] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Research has documented sharp and short-lived increases in firearm acquisitions immediately following high-profile mass shootings and specific elections, increasing exposure to firearms at the community level. We exploit cross-city variation in the estimated number of excess handgun acquisitions in California following the 2012 presidential election and the Sandy Hook school shooting 5 weeks later to assess whether the additional handguns were associated with increases in the rate of firearm-related harms at the city level. Methods We use a two-stage modeling approach. First, we estimate excess handguns as the difference between actual handgun acquisitions, as recorded in California’s Dealer Record of Sales, and expected acquisitions, as predicted by a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) time series model. We use Poisson regression models to estimate the effect of city-level excess handgun purchasing on city-level changes in rates of firearm mortality and injury. Results We estimate there were 36,142 excess handguns acquired in California in the 11 weeks following the election (95% prediction interval: 22,780 to 49,505); the Sandy Hook shooting occurred in week 6. We find city-level purchasing spikes were associated with higher rates of firearm injury in the 52 weeks post-election: a relative rate of 1.044 firearm injuries for each excess handgun per 1,000 people (95% CI: 1.000 to 1.089). This amounts to approximately 290 (95% CI: 0 to 616) additional firearm injuries (roughly a 4% increase) in California over the year. We do not detect statistically significant associations for shorter time windows or for firearm mortality. Conclusion This study provides evidence for an association between excess handgun acquisitions following high-profile events and firearm injury at the community level. This suggests that even marginal increases in handgun prevalence may be impactful. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s40621-019-0212-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah S Laqueur
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817 USA
| | - Rose M C Kagawa
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817 USA
| | - Christopher D McCort
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817 USA
| | - Rocco Pallin
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817 USA
| | - Garen Wintemute
- Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA 95817 USA
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