Exercise programmes to prevent falls among older adults: modelling health gain, cost-utility and equity impacts

Economic evaluations of fall prevention exercise programs: a systematic review

Objective

To investigate cost-effectiveness and costs of fall prevention exercise programmes for older adults.

Design

Systematic review.

Data sources

Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, National Institute for Health Research Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment database, Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, Research Papers in Economics and EconLit (inception to May 2022).

Eligibility criteria for study selection

Economic evaluations (trial-based or model-based) and costing studies investigating fall prevention exercise programmes versus no intervention or usual care for older adults living in the community or care facilities, and reporting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for fall-related outcomes or quality-adjusted life years (QALY, expressed as cost/QALY) and/or intervention costs.

Results

31 studies were included. For community-dwelling older adults (21 economic evaluations, 6 costing studies), results ranged from more effective and less costly (dominant) interventions up to an ICER of US$279 802/QALY gained and US$11 986/fall prevented (US$ in 2020). Assuming an arbitrary willingness-to-pay threshold (US$100 000/QALY), most results (17/24) were considered cost-effective (moderate certainty). The greatest value for money (lower ICER/QALY gained and fall prevented) appeared to accrue for older adults and those with high fall risk, but unsupervised exercise appeared to offer poor value for money (higher ICER/QALY). For care facilities (two economic evaluations, two costing studies), ICERs ranged from dominant (low certainty) to US$35/fall prevented (moderate certainty). Overall, intervention costs varied and were poorly reported.

Conclusions

Most economic evaluations investigated fall prevention exercise programmes for older adults living in the community. There is moderate certainty evidence that fall prevention exercise programmes are likely to be cost-effective. The evidence for older adults living in care facilities is more limited but promising.

PROSPERO registration number

PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020178023.

Effectiveness of a complex intervention of group-based nutrition and physical activity to prevent frailty in pre-frail older adults (SUPER): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The increasing prevalence of frailty with age is becoming a public health priority in countries with ageing populations. Pre-frailty presents a window of opportunity to prevent the development of frailty in community-dwelling older adults. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of a complex intervention that combined a nutrition-based intervention and a physical activity intervention, along with the effectiveness of each intervention individually, to reduce physical frailty in pre-frail older adults over 2 years.

METHODS

In this single-blind, 2 x 2 factorial, randomised, controlled trial, we recruited pre-frail community-dwelling older adults in Aotearoa New Zealand via mail through general medical practices. To be eligible, participants had to be pre-frail according to self-reported FRAIL scores of 1 or 2, aged 75 years or older (or 60 years or older for Māori and Pacific Peoples), not terminally ill or with advanced dementia as judged by a general practitioner, able to stand, medically safe to participate in low-intensity exercise, and able to use kitchen utensils safely. Participants were randomly allocated to receive an 8-week Senior Chef programme (SC group), a 10-week Steady As You Go programme (SAYGO group), a 10-week combined SC and SAYGO intervention (combined group), or a 10-week social programme (control group), using computer-generated block randomisation administered through an electronic data capture system by local study coordinators. Assessors were masked to group allocation for all assessments. SC is a group-based nutrition education and cooking class programme (3 h weekly), SAYGO is a group-based strength and balance exercise programme (1 h weekly), and the social control programme was a seated, group socialising activity (once a week). Masked assessors ascertained Fried frailty scores at baseline, end of intervention, and at 6, 12, and 24 months after the programme. The primary outcome was change in Fried frailty score at 2 years. Intention-to-treat analyses were completed for all randomised participants, and all participants who had a high (≥75%) adherence were analysed per protocol. This study is registered at ANZCTR, ACTRN12614000827639.

FINDINGS

Between May 12, 2016 and April 9, 2018, we assessed 2678 older adults for eligibility, of whom 468 (17%) consented and completed baseline assessment, with a mean age of 80·3 years (SD 5·1) and a mean Fried score of 1·9 (1·2); 59% were women. We randomly allocated these participants into the four groups: 117 in the SC group, 118 in the SAYGO group, 118 in the combined group, and 115 in the control group; 318 participants attended the 24-month follow-up: 89 in the SC group, 78 in the SAYGO group, 73 in the combined group, and 78 in the control group. At the 24-month follow-up, there were no differences in mean Fried scores between the intervention groups and the control group. No adverse events were reported.

INTERPRETATION

The study did not find that the combined SC and SAYGO programme was effective in reducing frailty in pre-frail older adults. Although some short-term benefits were observed in each individual programme, there was no clear evidence of long-term impact. Further research is needed to evaluate combinations of group-based programmes for community-dwelling older adults to optimise their physical function.

FUNDING

Health Research Council New Zealand and Ageing Well Challenge (Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment).

Systematic review and critical methodological appraisal of community-based falls prevention economic models

BACKGROUND

Falls impose significant health and economic burdens on community-dwelling older persons. Decision modelling can inform commissioning of alternative falls prevention strategies. Several methodological challenges arise when modelling public health interventions including community-based falls prevention. This study aims to conduct a systematic review (SR) to: systematically identify community-based falls prevention economic models; synthesise and critically appraise how the models handled key methodological challenges associated with public health modelling; and suggest areas for further methodological research.

METHODS

The SR followed the 2021 PRISMA reporting guideline and covered the period 2003-2020 and 12 academic databases and grey literature. The extracted methodological features of included models were synthesised by their relevance to the following challenges: (1) capturing non-health outcomes and societal intervention costs; (2) considering heterogeneity and dynamic complexity; (3) considering theories of human behaviour and implementation; and (4) considering equity issues. The critical appraisal assessed the prevalence of each feature across models, then appraised the methods used to incorporate the feature. The methodological strengths and limitations stated by the modellers were used as indicators of desirable modelling practice and scope for improvement, respectively. The methods were also compared against those suggested in the broader empirical and methodological literature. Areas of further methodological research were suggested based on appraisal results.

RESULTS

46 models were identified. Comprehensive incorporation of non-health outcomes and societal intervention costs was infrequent. The assessments of heterogeneity and dynamic complexity were limited; subgroup delineation was confined primarily to demographics and binary disease/physical status. Few models incorporated heterogeneity in intervention implementation level, efficacy and cost. Few dynamic variables other than age and falls history were incorporated to characterise the trajectories of falls risk and general health/frailty. Intervention sustainability was frequently based on assumptions; few models estimated the economic/health returns from improved implementation. Seven models incorporated ethnicity- and severity-based subgroups but did not estimate the equity-efficiency trade-offs. Sixteen methodological research suggestions were made.

CONCLUSION

Existing community-based falls prevention models contain methodological limitations spanning four challenge areas relevant for public health modelling. There is scope for further methodological research to inform the development of falls prevention and other public health models.

Economic models of community-based falls prevention: a systematic review with subsequent commissioning and methodological recommendations

BACKGROUND

Falls impose significant health and economic burdens among older populations, making their prevention a priority. Health economic models can inform whether the falls prevention intervention represents a cost-effective use of resources and/or meet additional objectives such as reducing social inequities of health. This study aims to conduct a systematic review (SR) of community-based falls prevention economic models to: (i) systematically identify such models; (ii) synthesise and critically appraise modelling methods/results; and (iii) formulate methodological and commissioning recommendations.

METHODS

The SR followed PRISMA 2021 guideline, covering the period 2003-2020, 12 academic databases and grey literature. A study was included if it: targeted community-dwelling persons aged 60 and over and/or aged 50-59 at high falls risk; evaluated intervention(s) designed to reduce falls or fall-related injuries; against any comparator(s); reported outcomes of economic evaluation; used decision modelling; and had English full text. Extracted data fields were grouped by: (A) model and evaluation overview; (B) falls epidemiology features; (C) falls prevention intervention features; and (D) evaluation methods and outcomes. A checklist for falls prevention economic evaluations was used to assess reporting/methodological quality. Extracted fields were narratively synthesised and critically appraised to inform methodological and commissioning recommendations. The SR protocol is registered in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42021232147).

RESULTS

Forty-six models were identified. The most prevalent issue according to the checklist was non-incorporation of all-cause care costs. Based on general population, lifetime models conducting cost-utility analyses, seven interventions produced favourable ICERs relative to no intervention under the cost-effectiveness threshold of US$41,900 (£30,000) per QALY gained; of these, results for (1) combined multifactorial and environmental intervention, (2) physical activity promotion for women, and (3) targeted vitamin D supplementation were from validated models. Decision-makers should explore the transferability and reaches of interventions in their local settings. There was some evidence that exercise and home modification exacerbate existing social inequities of health. Sixteen methodological recommendations were formulated.

CONCLUSION

There is significant methodological heterogeneity across falls prevention models. This SR's appraisals of modelling methods should facilitate the conceptualisation of future falls prevention models. Its synthesis of evaluation outcomes, though limited to published evidence, could inform commissioning.

Cost-effectiveness of group-based exercise to prevent falls in elderly community-dwelling people

BACKGROUND

Clinical studies indicate that strength-balance training for active fall prevention can prevent fractures in older people. The present modelling study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of fall prevention exercise (FPE) provided to independently living older people compared to no intervention in Germany.

METHOD

We designed a Markov model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a group-based FPE-program provided to independently living people ≥75 years from the perspective of the German statutory health insurance (SHI). Input data was obtained from public databases, clinical trials and official statistics. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was presented as costs per avoided hip fracture. Additionally, we performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and, estimated monetary consequences for the SHI in a budget impact analysis (BIA).

RESULTS

For women, the costs per hip fracture avoided amounted to €52,864 (men: €169,805). Results of deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. According to the BIA, for the reimbursement of FPE additional costs of €3.0 million (women) and €7.8 million (men) are expected for the SHI.

CONCLUSIONS

Group-based FPE appears to be no cost-effective option to prevent fall-related hip fractures in independently living elderly. To allow a more comprehensive statement on the cost effectiveness of FPE fracture types other than hip should be increasingly evaluated in clinical trials.

Cost-Effectiveness of an Exercise Programme That Provided Group or Individual Training to Reduce the Fall Risk in Healthy Community-Dwelling People Aged 65-80: A Secondary Data Analysis

Research has demonstrated that some exercise programs are effective for reducing fall rates in community-dwelling older people; however, the literature is limited in providing clear recommendations of individual or group training as a result of economic evaluation. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the Otago Exercise Program (OEP) for reducing the fall risk in healthy, non-institutionalized older people. An economic evaluation of a multicenter, blinded, randomized, non-inferiority clinical trial was performed on 498 patients aged over 65 in primary care. Participants were randomly allocated to the treatment or control arms, and group or individual training. The program was delivered in primary healthcare settings and comprised five initial sessions, ongoing encouragement and support to exercise at home, and a reinforcement session after six months. Our hypothesis was that the patients who received the intervention would achieve better health outcomes and therefore need lower healthcare resources during the follow-up, thus, lower healthcare costs. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which used the timed up and go test results as an effective measure for preventing falls. The secondary outcomes included differently validated tools that assessed the fall risk. The cost per patient was USD 51.28 lower for the group than the individual sessions in the control group, and the fall risk was 10% lower when exercises had a group delivery. The OEP program delivered in a group manner was superior to the individual method. We observed slight differences in the incremental cost estimations when using different tools to assess the risk of fall, but all of them indicated the dominance of the intervention group. The OEP group sessions were more cost-effective than the individual sessions, and the fall risk was 10% lower.

Examining Equity Effects of Health Interventions in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aims to catalogue and describe published applications of equity-informative cost-effectiveness analysis (CEAs).

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched Medline for English-language, peer-reviewed CEAs published on or before August 2019. We included CEAs that evaluated 2 or more alternatives; explicitly mentioned equity as a consideration or decision-making principle; and applied an equity-informative CEA method to analyze or examine at least 1 equity criterion in an applied CEA. We extracted data on selected characteristics and analyzed reporting quality using the CHEERS checklist.

RESULTS

Fifty-four articles identified through a search and bibliography reviews met the inclusion criteria. All articles were published on or after 2010, with 80% published after 2015. Most studies evaluated primary prevention interventions in disease areas such as cancer, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular disease. Equity impact analysis alone was the most common equity-informative CEA (56%), followed by equity impact analysis with financial protection effects (30%). At least 11 different equity criteria have been used in equity-informative CEAs; socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity were used most frequently. Seventy-eight percent of studies reported finding "greater value" in an intervention after examining its distributional effects.

CONCLUSION

The number of equity-informative CEAs is increasing, and the wide range of equity criteria, diseases, interventions, settings, and populations represented suggests that broad application of these methods is feasible but will require further refinement. Inclusion of equity into CEAs may shift the value of evaluated interventions and can provide crucial additional information for decision makers.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Therapeutic Tai Ji Quan Fall Prevention Intervention for Older Adults at High Risk of Falling

BACKGROUND

Data on the cost-effectiveness of proven fall prevention exercise interventions are limited. We aimed to establish the cost-effectiveness of Tai Ji Quan: Moving for Better Balance (TJQMBB) compared with a conventional exercise intervention for older adults at high risk of falling.

METHODS

We conducted a trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis involving 670 older adults who had a history of falling or impaired mobility. Participants received one of three interventions-TJQMBB, multimodal exercise, or stretching exercise (control)-each of which was implemented twice weekly for 24 weeks. The primary cost-effectiveness measure was the incremental cost per additional fall prevented, comparing TJQMBB and multimodal exercise to Stretching and TJQMBB to multimodal exercise, with a secondary measure of incremental cost per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The intervention was conducted between February 2015 and January 2018, and cost-effectiveness was estimated from a health care system perspective over a 6-month time horizon.

RESULTS

The total cost to deliver the TJQMBB intervention was $202,949 (an average of $906 per participant); for multimodal exercise, it was $223,849 ($1,004 per participant); and for Stretching, it was $210,468 ($903 per participant). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios showed that the multimodal exercise was cost-effective ($850 per additional fall prevented; $27,614 per additional QALY gained) relative to Stretching; however, TJQMBB was the most economically dominant strategy (ie, having lower cost and being clinically more efficacious) compared with multimodal and stretching exercises with regard to cost per additional fall prevented and per additional QALY gained. TJQMBB had a 100% probability of being cost-effective, relative to Stretching, at a threshold of $500 per each additional fall prevented and $10,000 per additional QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results when extreme cases, medical costs only, and missing data were considered.

CONCLUSIONS

Among community-dwelling older adults at high risk for falls, TJQMBB is a cost-effective means of reducing falls compared with conventional exercise approaches.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02287740).

Cataract surgery for falls prevention and improving vision: modelling the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness in a high-income country

AIM

To estimate the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness of cataract surgery when expedited as a falls prevention strategy (reducing the waiting time for surgery by 12 months) and as a routine procedure.

METHODS

An established injurious falls model designed for the New Zealand (NZ) population (aged 65+ years) was adapted. Key parameters relating to cataracts were sourced from the literature and the NZ Ministry of Health. A health system perspective with discounting at 3% was used.

RESULTS

Expedited cataract surgery for 1 year of incident cases was found to generate a total 240 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 161 to 360) at net health system costs of NZ$2.43 million (95% UI 2.02 to 2.82 million) over the remaining lifetimes of the surgery group. This intervention was cost-effective by widely accepted standards with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of NZ$10 600 (US$7540) (95% UI NZ$6030 to NZ$15 700) per QALY gained. The level of cost-effectiveness did not vary greatly by sex, ethnicity and previous fall history, but was higher for the 65-69 age group compared with the oldest age group of 85-89 years (NZ$7000 vs NZ$14 200 per QALY gained). Comparing cataract surgery with no surgery, the ICER was even more favourable at NZ$4380 (95% UI 2410 to 7210) per QALY. Considering only the benefits for vision improvement and excluding the benefits of falls prevention, it was still favourable at NZ$9870 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Expedited cataract surgery appears very cost-effective. Routine cataract surgery is itself very cost-effective, and its value appears largely driven by the falls prevention benefits.