External validation of the GRACE risk score and the risk-treatment paradox in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events following acute myocardial infarction using electrocardiogram DETERMINE score

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity globally, with a high incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) post-primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). The DETERMINE score, derived from electrocardiographic (ECG) markers, has shown promise as a predictor of adverse outcomes, but its clinical utility requires further validation.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive value of the DETERMINE score for MACE and provide early clinical warnings for high-risk patients.

METHODS

This bidirectional cohort study included AMI patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between 2019 and 2023. The training cohort comprised 545 patients between January 2019 and January 2023, while the validation cohort consisted of 122 patients between February 2023 and July 2023. The primary endpoint was MACE within one-year post-PPCI. The relationship between the DETERMINE score and MACE was analyzed using Cox regression, trend tests, and restricted cubic splines to assess linear and nonlinear associations. Patients were stratified into risk groups based on tertiles or optimal cutoffs, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves compared MACE incidence across groups. Predictive accuracy was evaluated through time-dependent C-index, ROC curves, decision curve analysis, and calibration, and compared to other prognostic scores, including the Selvester, GRACE, and SYNTAX scores, as well as left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Subgroup analyses by sex, age, and culprit artery involvement were also conducted.

RESULTS

Cox multivariate regression indicated that the DETERMINE score was an independent risk factor for MACE (HR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.38-1.75, P < 0.001). Trend test and RCS showed a positive correlation and non-linear relationship between the DETERMINE score and MACE (P-trend < 0.001, P-overall < 0.001, P-nonlinear: 0.003). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that, in both the training and validation datasets, groups with a higher DETERMINE score showed a higher cumulative risk of MACE. The DETERMINE score outperformed traditional prognostic scores (Selvester, GRACE, SYNTAX) in terms of predictive accuracy, with an AUROC of 0.840 at 12 months in the training cohort. The score also provided a substantial clinical net benefit, particularly over longer follow-up periods. Subgroup analyses confirmed its predictive power across different demographics and clinical presentations.

CONCLUSION

The DETERMINE score has outstanding predictive power for MACE post-PPCI, which can guide the early identification of high-risk patients with poor prognosis of AMI in clinical practice.

Validation of machine learning-based risk stratification scores for patients with acute coronary syndrome treated with percutaneous coronary intervention

Aims

This study aimed to validate the machine learning-based Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) 3.0 score and PRAISE (Prediction of Adverse Events following an Acute Coronary Syndrome) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for predicting mortality.

Methods and results

Data of consecutive patients with ACS treated with PCI in a tertiary centre in the Netherlands between 2014 and 2021 were used for external validation. The GRACE 3.0 score for predicting in-hospital mortality was evaluated in 2759 patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) treated with PCI. The PRAISE score for predicting one-year mortality was evaluated in 4347 patients with ACS treated with PCI. Both risk scores were compared with the GRACE 2.0 score. The GRACE 3.0 score showed excellent discrimination [c-statistic 0.90 (95% CI 0.84, 0.94)] for predicting in-hospital mortality, with well-calibrated predictions (calibration-in-the large [CIL] -0.19 [95% CI -0.45, 0.07]). The PRAISE score demonstrated moderate discrimination [c-statistic 0.75 (95% CI 0.70, 0.80)] and overestimated the one-year risk of mortality [CIL -0.56 (95% CI -0.73, -0.39)]. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the GRACE 3.0 score offered improved risk prediction compared with the GRACE 2.0 score, while the PRAISE score did not.

Conclusion

This study in ACS patients treated with PCI provides suggestive evidence that the GRACE 3.0 score effectively predicts in-hospital mortality beyond the GRACE 2.0 score. The PRAISE score demonstrated limited potential for predicting one-year mortality risk. Further external validation studies in larger cohorts including patients without PCI are warranted.

Time to coronary catheterization in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome and high Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score

AIMS

Current guidelines recommend an early (<24 h) invasive coronary angiography (ICA) strategy in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) patients with Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score over 140. Evidence for this recommendation is based on older trials.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between 1 February 2016 and 31 July 2021, 1767 patients with a primary diagnosis of NSTE-ACS without indication for urgent ICA underwent ICA during index hospitalization. Six hundred and fifty-five patients underwent early invasive ICA (within 24 h) and 1112 underwent late ICA (between 24 h and 1 week). One hundred and seven patients had a GRACE risk score of 140 or above and 1660 had a GRACE risk score under 140. The primary composite outcome was all-cause mortality, stroke, and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI). Median time from admission to ICA was 13.3 h (IQR 6.0-20.6) for the early group and 59.9 h for the late group (IQR 23.5-96.3). There was no difference between the early and late ICA groups in the primary composite outcome [late catheterization >24 h hazard ratio 1.196, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.969-1.475, P -value 0.096]. A multivariable Cox regression model for the composite outcome revealed no difference between the early and late ICA groups (late catheterization >24 h hazard ratio 1.0735, 95% CI 0.862-1.327, P -value 0.512) with no effect for performing early ICA in patients with GRACE score over 140 (hazard ratio 1.291, 95% CI 0.910-1.831, P -value 0.151).

CONCLUSION

An early ICA strategy in patients with NSTE-ACS patients and GRACE risk score over 140, compared with late ICA, was not associated with improved composite outcome of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke at 1 year.

Prevalence and Impact of Frailty in Patients ≥70 Years Old with Acute Coronary Syndrome Referred for Coronary Angiography

INTRODUCTION

Elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have a higher risk of adverse cardiovascular events and may be frail but are underrepresented in clinical trials. Previous studies have proposed that frailty assessment is a better tool than chronological age, in assessing older patients' biological age, and may exceed conventional risk scores in predicting the prognosis. Therefore, we wanted to investigate the prevalence and impact on 12-month outcomes of frailty in patients ≥70 years with ACS referred for coronary angiography (CAG).

METHODS

Patients ≥70 years with ACS referred for CAG underwent frailty scoring with the clinical frailty scale (CFS). Patients were divided into three groups depending on their CFS: robust (1-3), vulnerable (4), and frail (5-9) and followed for 12 months.

RESULTS

Of 455 patients, 69 (15%) patients were frail, 79 (17%) were vulnerable, and 307 (68%) were robust. Frail patients were older (frail: 80.9 ± 5.7 years, vulnerable: 78.5 ± 5.5 years, and robust: 76.6 ± 4.9 years, p < 0.001) and less often treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (frail: 56.5%, vulnerable: 53.2%, and robust: 68.6%, p = 0.014). 12-month mortality was higher among frail patients (frail: 24.6%, vulnerable: 21.8%, and robust: 6.2%, p < 0.001). Frailty was associated with a higher mortality after adjustment for age, sex, comorbidities, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, and revascularisation (HR 2.67, 95% CI 1.30-5.50, p = 0.008). There was no difference between GRACE and CFS in predicting 12-month mortality (p = 0.893).

CONCLUSIONS

Fifteen percent of patients ≥70 years old with ACS referred for CAG are frail. Frail patients have significantly higher 12-month mortality. GRACE and CFS are similar in predicting 12-month mortality.

Modification of the GRACE Risk Score for Risk Prediction in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes

Importance

The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score, a guideline-recommended risk stratification tool for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), does not consider the extent of myocardial injury.

Objective

To assess the incremental predictive value of a modified GRACE score incorporating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) T at presentation, a surrogate of the extent of myocardial injury.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospectively designed longitudinal cohort study examined 3 independent cohorts of 9803 patients with ACS enrolled from September 2009 to December 2017; 2 ACS derivation cohorts (Heidelberg ACS cohort and Newcastle STEMI cohort) and an ACS validation cohort (SPUM-ACS study). The Heidelberg ACS cohort included 2535 and the SPUM-ACS study 4288 consecutive patients presenting with a working diagnosis of ACS. The Newcastle STEMI cohort included 2980 consecutive patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Data were analyzed from March to June 2023.

Exposures

In-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality risk estimates derived from an updated risk score that incorporates continuous hs-cTn T at presentation (modified GRACE).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The predictive value of continuous hs-cTn T and modified GRACE risk score compared with the original GRACE risk score. Study end points were all-cause mortality during hospitalization and at 30 days and 1 year after the index event.

Results

Of 9450 included patients, 7313 (77.4%) were male, and the mean (SD) age at presentation was 64.2 (12.6) years. Using continuous rather than binary hs-cTn T conferred improved discrimination and reclassification compared with the original GRACE score (in-hospital mortality: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.835 vs 0.741; continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.208; 30-day mortality: AUC, 0.828 vs 0.740; NRI, 0.312; 1-year mortality: AUC, 0.785 vs 0.778; NRI, 0.078) in the derivation cohort. These findings were confirmed in the validation cohort. In the pooled population of 9450 patients, modified GRACE risk score showed superior performance compared with the original GRACE risk score in terms of reclassification and discrimination for in-hospital mortality end point (AUC, 0.878 vs 0.780; NRI, 0.097), 30-day mortality end point (AUC, 0.858 vs 0.771; NRI, 0.08), and 1-year mortality end point (AUC, 0.813 vs 0.797; NRI, 0.056).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, using continuous rather than binary hs-cTn T at presentation, a proxy of the extent of myocardial injury, in the GRACE risk score improved the mortality risk prediction in patients with ACS.

Conservative versus Invasive Strategy in Elderly Patients with Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Insights from the International POPular Age Registry

This registry assessed the impact of conservative and invasive strategies on major adverse clinical events (MACE) in elderly patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Patients aged ≥75 years with NSTEMI were prospectively registered from European centers and followed up for one year. Outcomes were compared between conservative and invasive groups in the overall population and a propensity score-matched (PSM) cohort. MACE included cardiovascular death, acute coronary syndrome, and stroke. The study included 1190 patients (median age 80 years, 43% female). CAG was performed in 67% (N = 798), with two-thirds undergoing revascularization. Conservatively treated patients had higher baseline risk. After propensity score matching, 319 patient pairs were successfully matched. MACE occurred more frequently in the conservative group (total population 20% vs. 12%, adjHR 0.53, 95% CI 0.37-0.77, p = 0.001), remaining significant in the PSM cohort (18% vs. 12%, adjHR 0.50, 95% CI 0.31-0.81, p = 0.004). In conclusion, an early invasive strategy was associated with benefits over conservative management in elderly patients with NSTEMI. Risk factors associated with ischemia and bleeding should guide strategy selection rather than solely relying on age.

Management of Coronary Artery Disease in Older Adults: Recent Advances and Gaps in Evidence

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is highly prevalent in older adults, yet its management remains challenging. Treatment choices are made complex by the frailty burden of older patients, a high prevalence of comorbidities and body composition abnormalities (e.g., sarcopenia), the complexity of coronary anatomy, and the frequent presence of multivessel disease, as well as the coexistence of major ischemic and bleeding risk factors. Recent randomized clinical trials and epidemiological studies have provided new data on optimal management of complex patients with CAD. However, frail older adults are still underrepresented in the literature. This narrative review aims to highlight the importance of assessing frailty as an aid to guide therapeutic decision-making and tailor CAD management to the specific needs of older adults, taking into account age-related pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic changes, polypharmacy, and potential drug interactions. We also discuss gaps in the evidence and offer perspectives on how best in the future to optimize the global strategy of CAD management in older adults.

Coronary Atherosclerotic Plaque Activity and Future Coronary Events

Importance

Recurrent coronary events in patients with recent myocardial infarction remain a major clinical problem. Noninvasive measures of coronary atherosclerotic disease activity have the potential to identify individuals at greatest risk.

Objective

To assess whether coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity as assessed by noninvasive imaging is associated with recurrent coronary events in patients with myocardial infarction.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective, longitudinal, international multicenter cohort study recruited participants aged 50 years or older with multivessel coronary artery disease and recent (within 21 days) myocardial infarction between September 2015 and February 2020, with a minimum 2 years' follow-up.

Intervention

Coronary 18F-sodium fluoride positron emission tomography and coronary computed tomography angiography.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Total coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity was assessed by 18F-sodium fluoride uptake. The primary end point was cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction but was expanded during study conduct to include unscheduled coronary revascularization due to lower than anticipated primary event rates.

Results

Among 2684 patients screened, 995 were eligible, 712 attended for imaging, and 704 completed an interpretable scan and comprised the study population. The mean (SD) age of participants was 63.8 (8.2) years, and most were male (601 [85%]). Total coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity was identified in 421 participants (60%). After a median follow-up of 4 years (IQR, 3-5 years), 141 participants (20%) experienced the primary end point: 9 had cardiac death, 49 had nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 83 had unscheduled coronary revascularizations. Increased coronary plaque activity was not associated with the primary end point (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95% CI, 0.89-1.76; P = .20) or unscheduled revascularization (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.64-1.49; P = .91) but was associated with the secondary end point of cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (47 of 421 patients with high plaque activity [11.2%] vs 19 of 283 with low plaque activity [6.7%]; HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.07-3.10; P = .03) and all-cause mortality (30 of 421 patients with high plaque activity [7.1%] vs 9 of 283 with low plaque activity [3.2%]; HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.15-5.12; P = .02). After adjustment for differences in baseline clinical characteristics, coronary angiography findings, and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score, high coronary plaque activity was associated with cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.00-3.10; P = .05) but not with all-cause mortality (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 0.90-4.49; P = .09).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of patients with recent myocardial infarction, coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity was not associated with the primary composite end point. The findings suggest that risk of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction in patients with elevated plaque activity warrants further research to explore its incremental prognostic implications.

Patient-oriented risk score for predicting death 1 year after myocardial infarction: the SweDen risk score

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to derive, based on the SWEDEHEART registry, and validate, using the Western Denmark Heart registry, a patient-oriented risk score, the SweDen score, which could calculate the risk of 1-year mortality following a myocardial infarction (MI).

METHODS

The factors included in the SweDen score were age, sex, smoking, diabetes, heart failure and statin use. These were chosen a priori by the SWEDEHEART steering group based on the premise that the factors were information known by the patients themselves. The score was evaluated using various statistical methods such as time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves of the linear predictor, area under the curve metrics, Kaplan-Meier survivor curves and the calibration slope.

RESULTS

The area under the curve values were 0.81 in the derivation data and 0.76 in the validation data. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed similar patient profiles across datasets. The calibration slope was 1.03 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.08) in the validation data using the linear predictor from the derivation data.

CONCLUSIONS

The SweDen risk score is a novel tool created for patient use. The risk score calculator will be available online and presents mortality risk on a colour scale to simplify interpretation and to avoid exact life span expectancies. It provides a validated patient-oriented risk score predicting the risk of death within 1 year after suffering an MI, which visualises the benefit of statin use and smoking cessation in a simple way.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic models in Southeast Asian populations with acute myocardial infarction

Background

The cultural and genetic diversity of the Southeast Asian population has contributed to distinct cardiovascular disease risks, incidence, and prognosis compared to the Western population, thereby raising concerns about the accuracy of predicted risks of existing prognostic models.

Objectives

We aimed to evaluate the predictive performances of validated, recalibrated, and developed prognostic risk prediction tools used in the Southeast Asian population with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) events for secondary events

Methods

We searched MEDLINE and Cochrane Central databases until March 2022. We included prospective and retrospective cohort studies that exclusively evaluated populations in the Southeast Asian region with a confirmed diagnosis of an AMI event and evaluated for risk of secondary events such as mortality, recurrent AMI, and heart failure admission. The CHARMS and PRISMA checklists and PROBAST for risk of bias assessment were used in this review.

Results

We included 7 studies with 11 external validations, 3 recalibrations, and 3 new models from 4 countries. Both short- and long-term outcomes were assessed. Overall, we observed that the external validation studies provided a good predictive accuracy of the models in the respective populations. The pooled estimate of the C-statistic in the Southeast Asian population for GRACE risk score is 0.83 (95%CI 0.72–0.90, n = 6 validations) and for the TIMI risk score is 0.80 (95%CI: 0.772–0.83, n = 5 validations). Recalibrated and new models demonstrated marginal improvements in discriminative values. However, the method of predictive accuracy measurement in most studies was insufficient thereby contributing to the mixed accuracy effect. The evidence synthesis was limited due to the relatively low quality and heterogeneity of the available studies.

Conclusion

Both TIMI and GRACE risk scores demonstrated good predictive accuracies in the population. However, with the limited strength of evidence, these results should be interpreted with caution. Future higher-quality studies spanning various parts of the Asian region will help to understand the prognostic utility of these models better.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?%20RecordID=228486.