The chicken or the egg? The value of longitudinal research in an increasingly diverse tobacco product landscape

National longitudinal tobacco product discontinuation rates among US youth from the PATH Study: 2013-2019 (waves 1-5)

OBJECTIVE

Determine longitudinal tobacco product discontinuation rates among youth (ages 12-17 years) in the USA between 2013 and 2019.

METHODS

The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study, was used to determine annual/biennial rates of tobacco product discontinuation behaviours among youth across 2013-2019: (1) discontinuing product use (transition from past 30-day use to no past 30-day use), (2) attempting to quit product use and (3) discontinuing product use among those who attempted to quit. Discontinuing use was evaluated separately for cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah, smokeless tobacco and any tobacco. Attempting to quit and discontinuing use among those who attempted were each evaluated for cigarettes and ENDS. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate linear and non-linear trends in rates across the study period.

RESULTS

Between 2013 and 2019, biennial rates of discontinuing tobacco product use among youth increased for cigarettes from 29% to 40%, increased for smokeless tobacco from 39% to 60%, and decreased for ENDS from 53% to 27%. By 2018/2019, rates of discontinuing use among attempters were 30% for those who used ENDS and 30% for those who smoked cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings show decreasing rates of discontinuing ENDS use among youth in the USA alongside the changing ENDS marketplace and increasing rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco use. Findings will serve as benchmarks against which future tobacco product discontinuation rates can be compared with evaluating impacts of subsequent tobacco regulatory policies, ENDS product development and public education campaigns.

Transitions between tobacco products: Correlates of changes in cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use among exclusive adult smokers and dual users in Mexico

This study examined transitions in tobacco products use among Mexican smokers and dual users. Data were analyzed from exclusive smokers (n = 2,946) and dual users (n = 1,643) recruited from an online consumer research panel and surveyed every-four months from November 2018 to April 2021. For exclusive smokers, estimated transitions were (time "t + 1" four months after prior survey): a) remain as exclusive smokers; b) dual use; c) exclusive e-cigarette use or quit both products. Among dual users, transitions analyzed were: a) remain as dual user; b) exclusive smoker; c) exclusive e-cigarette user or quit both products. Multinomial models regressed transitions at "t + 1" on time "t" for control variables. Most exclusive smokers (81%) remained as such, 12.6% transitioned to dual use, 2.3% to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 4% quitted both products. Exclusive smokers were more likely to transition to dual use if they recently attempted to quit (AOR = 1.45) or had partners/family or friends who used e-cigarettes (AOR = 2.47 & 2.56 respectively). Most dual users (74.8%) remained as dual users, 20.4% transitioned to exclusive smoking, 1.6% transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 3.2% quitted both products. Dual users were more likely to transition to exclusive smoking if they had lower educational attainment, recently attempted to quit e-cigarettes (AOR = 1.70). Having friends who use e-cigarettes (AOR = 0.29) and higher smoking dependence (AOR = 0.55) were associated with a lower likelihood of quitting. Recent quit attempts and e-cigarette use among close social network members may explain the short-term transitions, though longer follow-up is needed to assess sustained smoking cessation.

Characteristics differ based on usual cigar-type use among U.S. adults: Analysis from the tobacco use supplement to the current population survey

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Significant demographic heterogeneity was found based on usual cigar type.

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Males were more likely to use all types of cigars relative to non-use.

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Males were less likely to use cigarillos and filtered cigars relative to large cigars.

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Black adults had greater odds for using all types of cigars relative to non-use.

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Education, income, and other tobacco use also varied according to cigar type.

The tobacco products landscape is continually shifting, and there are concerns about the increased popularity of non-cigarette tobacco products, including cigars. This study examines characteristics associated with usual cigar-type use. Data are from the 2018–19 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association between sociodemographic characteristics and cigar-type use (i.e., large cigars, cigarillos, and little filtered cigars). Analyses also examined factors relative to large cigar use and further stratified by sex. Of 137,221 adults included in the study, 1467 used large cigars most often, 513 used cigarillos most often, 446 used little filtered cigars most often, and the remaining 134,795 did not use cigars. In adjusted models, males had greater odds for using all types of cigars relative to non-use. In contrast, males were less likely to use cigarillos (AOR 0.28, 95% CI 0.20–0.41) and filtered cigars (AOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.14–0.28) relative to large cigars. Black adults had greater odds of using all types of cigars relative to non-use, and cigarillos (AOR 3.55, 95% CI 2.47–5.08) and filtered cigars (AOR 2.50, 95% CI 1.70–3.68) relative to large cigars. Education, income, and other tobacco use also varied according to cigar type. Characteristics of those who usually use large cigars differed significantly from those who usually use cigarillos, little filtered cigars, or reported no cigar use.

Changes in Smoking and Vaping over 18 Months among Smokers and Recent Ex-Smokers: Longitudinal Findings from the 2016 and 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys

This descriptive study of smokers (smoked at least monthly) and recent ex-smokers (quit for ≤2 years) examined transitions over an 18 month period in their smoking and vaping behaviors. Data are from Waves 1 (W1: 2016) and 2 (W2: 2018) of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, a cohort study of adult (≥18+) smokers, concurrent users (smoke and vape), and recent ex-smokers from Australia, Canada, England, and the United States (US). Respondents (N = 5016) were classified according to their smoking and vaping status, which resulted in eight subgroups: (1) exclusive daily smokers (2) exclusive non-daily smokers; (3–6) concurrent users (subdivided into four groups by each combination of daily/non-daily smoking and daily/non-daily vaping); (7) ex-smokers who vape; (8) ex-smokers not vaping. The analyses focused first on describing changes between groups from W1 to W2. Second, transition outcomes were assessed based on changes in smoking and vaping between W1 and W2. Transitions focused on smoking were: no change in smoking (continued smoking at the same frequency); decreased smoking; increased smoking; discontinued smoking; relapsed (ex-smokers at W1 who were smoking at W2). Transitions focused on vaping were: initiated vaping; switched from smoking to vaping. Overall, this study found that the vast majority of smokers were smoking 18 months later. Non-daily smokers were more likely than daily smokers to have discontinued smoking (p < 0.0001) and to have switched to exclusive vaping (p = 0.034). Exclusive non-daily smokers were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have initiated vaping (p = 0.04). Among all W1 daily smokers, there were no differences in discontinued smoking between daily smokers who vaped (concurrent users) and exclusive daily smokers; however, concurrent users were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have decreased to non-daily smoking (p < 0.001) or to have switched to vaping by W2 (p < 0.001). Among all W1 non-daily smokers, there were no significant differences in increased smoking or discontinued smoking between concurrent users or exclusive smokers. Most ex-smokers remained abstinent from smoking, and there was no difference in relapse back to smoking between those who vaped and those who did not.