Modelling the expected numbers of preclinical and clinical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Switzerland

Analysis of German BSE Surveillance Data: Estimation of the Prevalence of Confirmed Cases versus the Number of Infected, but Non-Detected, Cattle to Assess Confidence in Freedom from Infection

Quantitative risk assessments for Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) necessitate estimates for key parameters such as the prevalence of infection, the probability of absence of infection in defined birth cohorts, and the numbers of BSE-infected, but non-detected cattle entering the food chain. We estimated three key parameters with adjustment for misclassification using the German BSE surveillance data using a Gompertz model for latent (i.e., unobserved) age-dependent detection probabilities and a Poisson response model for the number of BSE cases for birth cohorts 1999 to 2015. The models were combined in a Bayesian framework. We estimated the median true BSE prevalence between 3.74 and 0.216 cases per 100,000 animals for the birth cohorts 1990 to 2001 and observed a peak for the 1996 birth cohort with a point estimate of 16.41 cases per 100,000 cattle. For birth cohorts ranging from 2002 to 2013, the estimated median prevalence was below one case per 100,000 heads. The calculated confidence in freedom from disease (design prevalence 1 in 100,000) was above 99.5% for the birth cohorts 2002 to 2006. In conclusion, BSE surveillance in the healthy slaughtered cattle chain was extremely sensitive at the time, when BSE repeatedly occurred in Germany (2000–2009), because the entry of BSE-infected cattle into the food chain could virtually be prevented by the extensive surveillance program during these years and until 2015 (estimated non-detected cases/100.000 [95% credible interval] in 2000, 2009, and 2015 are 0.64 [0.5,0.8], 0.05 [0.01,0.14], and 0.19 [0.05,0.61], respectively).

Biochemical typing of pathological prion protein in aging cattle with BSE

Background

The broad enforcement of active surveillance for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in 2000 led to the discovery of previously unnoticed, atypical BSE phenotypes in aged cattle that differed from classical BSE (C-type) in biochemical properties of the pathological prion protein. Depending on the molecular mass and the degree of glycosylation of its proteinase K resistant core fragment (PrP^res), mainly determined in samples derived from the medulla oblongata, these atypical cases are currently classified into low (L)-type or high (H)-type BSE. In the present study we address the question to what extent such atypical BSE cases are part of the BSE epidemic in Switzerland.

Results

To this end we analyzed the biochemical PrP^res type by Western blot in a total of 33 BSE cases in cattle with a minimum age of eight years, targeting up to ten different brain regions. Our work confirmed H-type BSE in a zebu but classified all other cases as C-type BSE; indicating a very low incidence of H- and L-type BSE in Switzerland. It was documented for the first time that the biochemical PrP^res type was consistent across different brain regions of aging animals with C-type and H-type BSE, i.e. independent of the neuroanatomical structure investigated.

Conclusion

Taken together this study provides further characteristics of the BSE epidemic in Switzerland and generates new baseline data for the definition of C- and H-type BSE phenotypes, thereby underpinning the notion that they indeed represent distinct prion disease entities.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy risk assessment: the UK experience

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom have mainly had the objective of determining the risks posed to humans from exposure to the causal agents associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease (vCJD). In this article, I examine 19 of these risk assessments published to date and consider how their results might be influenced by underlying model assumptions and methodology. Three separate aspects common to all the assessments are infective load estimation, exposure pathway identification, and risk estimation. These are each discussed in detail.

An evaluation of United Kingdom environmental bovine spongiform encephalopathy risk assessment

As a member of the group of diseases known as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has been causally associated with a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans. Given the many uncertainties on the transmission and persistence of TSE pathogens in the environment, quantitative assessment of risks to humans and animals continues to remain a public health issue. This paper reviews quantitative BSE risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom since 1997 to address the potential for human exposure and theoretical health risks through environmental pathways. The review focuses on how model assumptions and methodology may influence the results.

Age–period–cohort analysis of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Switzerland

Cattle born after animal-feed control measures were implemented in 1990 have become BSE cases in Switzerland, indicating sub-optimal effectiveness of these measures. To evaluate these measures, the incidence of BSE cases in Switzerland recorded through clinical case reporting from January 1991 to June 2000 (categorized into age groups and birth cohorts of 6-month duration) was analyzed by Poisson log-linear regression using an age-period-cohort model. The incidence was maximum in the cattle cohort born from October 1989 to March 1990, and dropped to zero in the cohort born from April to September 1991. A second peak was observed in a cohort born from April to September 1994. The first drop of incidence is interpreted as a result of initial implementation of the feed ban in 1990. The second peak might be related to exposure of cattle to feed intended for pigs and poultry.

Past, present and future of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in France

The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic has been monitored in France since the end of 1990. The surveillance has been considerably enhanced since 2000, and today every cow aged 2 years or more is tested at the time of slaughter, culling or death. As of 1 May 2002, 613 native cases have been identified, 287 of them by the mandatory reporting system of suspect clinical cases or complementary programs, 213 by active surveillance of fallen stock and 113 by testing at the abattoir. The analysis of reported BSE cases shows a higher number of cases born between 1993 and 1995, which can be linked to a greater exposure at that time and to an increase in surveillance efficiency. When the clinical onset related to overexposure ends, the future trend of the BSE epidemic in France will depend on the efficiency of the control measures implemented since 1996. An indicator of this will be the number of BSE cases born among recent cohorts. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was described first in 1987 in Great Britain (Wells et al. 1987), where a huge epidemic started, and more than 180,000 cases have been detected since then in this country. A risk analysis undertaken in France in 1990, in part because of the amount of meat and bone meal (MBM) imported from Great Britain during the 1980s, led to the conclusion that BSE might have spread to France, and that sporadic cases might be observed (Savey et al. 1991). Epidemiological surveillance was therefore set up at the end of 1990, and control measures were taken to prevent the development of the disease. The trends in the number of BSE cases detected in France must be analyzed in the light of both the detection system and the control measures, as well as their changes over time.

Measuring health and disease: progress in analytical approaches

In this paper, Dr. Martin reviews the progress in analytical approaches used in veterinary medicine between the 1970s and today. The newer applications are used in such activities as monitoring/surveillance, analysis of observational study data, evaluation of tests in the absence of gold standards, the analysis of clustered data (including geographically clustered data) and modeling disease in populations. Future work will be more complex but will demand an increased emphasis on ways to enhance our biological understanding of the results of data analysis and modeling.

European Union's rapid TSE testing in adult cattle and sheep: implementation and results in 2001 and 2002

After the discovery of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), scientific advances quickly led to post-mortem tests to identify late-stage bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) disease. These were first used in Switzerland in 1999 for active BSE surveillance of a) fallen and emergency-slaughter bovines (risk stock) and b) 5% sample of routinely slaughtered cattle over 30 months of age. In 1999 and 2000, Switzerland's estimated 103 BSE positives per 1000000 adult cattle put it in the same BSE risk classification as UK and Portugal. In July 2000, the European Union's Scientific Steering Committee published its methodology (and first vetted results) for geographical BSE risk (GBR) assessment in cattle. Member states with no BSE cases found themselves, on rational assessment, classified as GBR III (BSE likely but not confirmed, or confirmed at a lower level). Because of Europe's thus highly assessed BSE risks, active BSE surveillance of adult cattle in all member states began in January 2001 using one of three validated post-mortem tests. Implementation was variable across member states in January to March 2001 but, where operational, active surveillance was typically achieved for around 13300 routinely slaughtered and 1000 risk stock per month per 1000000 adult cattle; BSE positive rates were 60 and 600 per 1000000 routinely slaughtered and risk cattle, respectively. By the second half of 2001, active BSE surveillance was operating reasonably in most member states, although anomalies persisted. Performance and results for July to December 2001 and for January to June 2002 are considered in detail. The BSE positive rate decreased substantially in UK, Portugal and Ireland between semesters, whereas Spain's rates increased for both routinely slaughtered and risk bovines. Based on 1450000 routinely slaughtered and 135000 risk stock as standard, France could have expected 153 BSE positives in July to December 2001 (109 in January to June 2002); Italy 154 (67); and Germany only 39 (48). When sample-based surveillance data were scaled up and combined with clinical BSE cases, Great Britain's BSE positives were estimated at around 400 per 1000000 adult cattle in 2002 compared with over 1000 per 1000000 adult cattle in 2000. Age distributions for cattle subject to active BSE surveillance have been underexploited. The major transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) which affects sheep and goats is scrapie. Passive surveillance of scrapie is associated with substantial under-reporting. Susceptibility to scrapie depends strongly on sheep genotype; but resistance to scrapie does not necessarily confer resistance of sheep to BSE. Because of uncertainty about the true prevalence of scrapie-infected adult sheep and concern that BSE in sheep may be missed, the European Union pre-empted its planned evaluation of rapid post-mortem TSE tests in sheep by requiring the rapid TSE testing of small ruminants from April 2002 with one of the three cattle-validated tests. Basic requirements for active TSE surveillance in sheep were: random sample of 6000 fallen sheep and of 60000 routinely slaughtered adult native sheep to be tested per member state by end March 2003. Lower surveillance targets were set for countries with under 1000000 adult sheep. Adequately to map scrapie-susceptible genotypes and identify resistant genotypes, a random sample of 500 routinely slaughtered native adult sheep was to be genotyped, together with each TSE rapid test positive adult sheep and two sets of three suitably sampled controls. By the end of August 2002, when 41% of the initial surveillance time had elapsed, only 20% of the European joint target for routinely slaughtered adult sheep had been completed, but that for fallen sheep was exceeded. Except in Ireland, the upper 95% confidence bound on TSE prevalence exceeded 500 per 1000000 routinely slaughtered adult sheep in reporting-compliant countries with more than 1000000 adult sheep. The UK, Greece, Italy and France were likely to approach the goal of 100 TSE rapid test positives on completion of their assigned first-year surveillance target for sheep. Results from the recommended genotyping of TSE positive adult sheep and controls for use in inferring differential TSE-positive susceptibility by genotype are awaited. Only by genotyping 5000-50000 TSE-positive adult sheep, a massive undertaking even on the European scale, will it become clear whether scrapie resistance is relative rather than absolute. This paper details Europe's quantitative evolution in TSE surveillance.

Factors determining the pattern of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in the UK

Following the emergence of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) 6 years ago, and the gradual rise in clinical cases, there has been increased speculation regarding the overall magnitude of this epidemic in Great Britain. In this paper, we explore the epidemiological factors and uncertainties determining the scale of this epidemic in light of the most recent data on reported vCJD mortality. Our results demonstrate that, while the magnitude of the uncertainty has decreased dramatically since 1996, it is still not possible to predict with any degree of accuracy the final magnitude of this epidemic, with the 95% confidence interval for future cases being from 10 to 7000 deaths. However, short-term projections show that it is unlikely that a dramatic increase in case numbers will be observed in the next 2-5 years (95% confidence interval for 2 years: 10-80 cases, for 5 years: 10-200 cases). The results confirm significant age-dependent susceptibility/exposure to infection, with the likelihood profile demonstrating that those aged between 10 and 20 years are at highest risk of infection. We also demonstrate how projections based on onset data may be substantially biased, and explore the sensitivity of results to assumptions concerning the exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the incubation-period distribution.

Monitoring and analysis of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) testing in Denmark using statistical models

The evolution of monitoring and surveillance for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) from the phase of passive surveillance that began in the United Kingdom in 1988 until the present is described. Currently, surveillance for BSE in Europe consists of mass testing of cattle slaughtered for human consumption and cattle from certain groups considered to be at higher risk of having clinical or detectable BSE. The results of the ongoing BSE testing in Denmark have been analyzed using two statistical approaches: the "classical" frequentist and the Bayesian that is widely used in quantitative risk analysis. The analyses were intended to provide information for decision-makers, the media and the public as well as to provide inputs for future BSE surveillance models. The results to date suggest that the total number of BSE cases that will be found in Denmark in 2001 will not exceed 16.

Survey of laboratory findings in suspected cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Denmark from 1990 to 2000

A survey of the laboratory findings in suspected cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Denmark from 1 June 1990 to 31 December 2000 is presented. During this period BSE was a notifiable disease, and the heads of suspected cases were submitted according to the legislation on BSE. A total of 176 submissions were made, mostly from bovines with neurological disorders and mainly during the last 3 years of this period. Lesions or other laboratory findings consistent with severe neurological disorders were found in 115 cases. The most frequent diagnosis was encephalic listeriosis (35.8% of submissions) followed by other forms of inflammatory lesions. A wide range of lesions were diagnosed less prevalent. BSE was diagnosed twice. The first case occurred in an imported cow in 1992, while the second confirmed case was diagnosed in a native cow in February 2000. A marked increase in the number of submissions occurred following the detection of BSE in February 2000.

Targeted screening of high-risk cattle populations for BSE to augment mandatory reporting of clinical suspects

In Switzerland, the first case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was diagnosed in November 1990. Case numbers peaked in 1995, with a total of 352 BSE cases identified by 30 April 2000. Reporting of clinically suspect cattle is currently the most commonly used method world-wide to detect BSE cases. The effectiveness of mandatory reporting depends on a variety of factors; for other diseases passive surveillance underestimates the incidence of clinical cases. The efficiency of passive surveillance systems for BSE will remain unknown until screening tests able to identify clinically affected cattle have been applied in several countries. This paper provides the first detailed description of a targeted screening programme for BSE. Two populations of cows >24 months of age were included in the targeted screening: (i) cows found dead or culled on site where the carcass was submitted to rendering (fallen stock) and (ii) cows with health-related problems unfit for routine slaughter that were slaughtered under emergency procedures (emergency slaughter). Between 1992 and 1999, on average 81 clinical BSE suspects per year were reported to the veterinary authorities (passive surveillance), of which 43% were confirmed with BSE. A total of 30 clinical cases were captured by passive surveillance and an additional 20 BSE cases detected by targeted screening between May 1999 and April 2000. The odds of finding a BSE case was 49 times higher in the fallen stock and 58 times higher in emergency-slaughtered cattle when compared to passive surveillance. The targeted screening of fallen stock and emergency-slaughtered cattle considerably increased the number of detected cases in this 12-month period. Targeted-screening cases were on average 4 months younger than the clinical suspect cases. In conclusion, post-mortem testing of fallen stock and emergency-slaughtered cows >24 months for BSE is an important active surveillance element within a total surveillance system that principally is based on mandatory reporting of clinical suspect cases. Without ante-mortem screening tests to detect BSE-infected cattle during the incubation period, a combination of effectively functioning passive and active BSE surveillance strategies might be the only approach to assess the BSE situation reliably in a given country or region - and it is necessary to substantiate claims of freedom from the disease.

Prion diseases of humans and animals: their causes and molecular basis

Prion diseases are transmissible neurodegenerative conditions that include Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and scrapie in animals. Prions appear to be composed principally or entirely of abnormal isoforms of a host-encoded glycoprotein, prion protein. Prion propagation involves recruitment of host cellular prion protein, composed primarily of alpha-helical structure, into a disease specific isoform rich in beta-sheet structure. The existence of multiple prion strains has been difficult to explain in terms of a protein-only infections agent, but recent studies suggest that strain specific phenotypes can be encoded by different prion protein conformations and glycosylation patterns. The ability of a protein to encode phenotypic information has important biological implications. The appearance of a novel human prion disease, variant CJD, and the clear experimental evidence that it is caused by exposure to BSE has highlighted the need to understand the molecular basis of prion propagation, pathogenesis, and the barriers limiting intermammalian transmission. It is unclear if a large epidemic of variant CJD will occur in the years ahead.

Recent developments in the pathogenesis, diagnosis, and therapy of prion diseases

Prions continue to pose a formidable challenge to life sciences. While human prion diseases are still rare, the incidence of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom is increasing exponentially - raising fears that it might develop into a major epidemic. This disease is likely to represent the result of human infection with bovine prions. Therefore, understanding how prions replicate and damage the brain, and how their action may be possibly counteracted, has become a major public health issue. Here I examine some current hypotheses concerning the links between bovine and human prion diseases, and the mechanisms by which prions reach and damage the central nervous system after having entered the body at extracerebral sites.

Prions: health scare and biological challenge

Although human prion diseases are rare, the incidence of 'new variant' Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom is increasing exponentially. Given that this disease is probably the result of infection with bovine prions, understanding how prions replicate--and how to counteract their action--has become a central issue for public health. What are the links between the bovine and human prion diseases, and how do prions reach and damage the central nervous system?

Surveillance of BSE

The current method used to identify suspect BSE cases is based on reporting cattle displaying clinical signs compatible with BSE. The reporting of such cases is dependent on the ability of farmers and veterinarians to recognise the disease symptoms and on the willingness to report such cases. Furthermore, it depends on the stage of the disease, because early clinical signs of BSE are not always typical. Histology and immunohistochemistry are established and reliable to confirm BSE in cattle, but the procedure is cumbersome, time consuming and therefore not suited for mass testing of animals. A targeted surveillance system using the Prionics-Western-Blot Test was initiated in Switzerland in 1999. Prionics-positive results are confirmed by histology or immunohistochemistry by the BSE-reference laboratory. This surveillance scheme has confirmed fallen stock and cows subjected to emergency slaughter as the major risk groups. Currently all cattle from these two categories are tested. As a further measure a random sample of cows from regular slaughtering is tested. This enables to determine the BSE status independent of the inaccuracies of a clinical case reporting system. This approach may be helpful to reliably assess the BSE situation in countries with low incidence in order to verify their BSE status and in countries which want to prove their BSE-free status.