Rapid antigen testing in COVID-19 management for school-aged children: an observational study in Cheshire and Merseyside, UK

BACKGROUND

Twice weekly lateral flow tests (LFTs) for secondary school children was UK Government policy from 8 March 2021. We evaluate use of LFTs (both supervised at test centres, and home test kits) in school-aged children in Cheshire and Merseyside.

METHODS

We report (i) number of LFT positives (ii) proportion of LFT positive with confirmatory reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 2 days, and (iii) agreement between LFT-positive and confirmatory PCR, and dependence of (i-iii) on COVID-19 prevalence.

FINDINGS

1 248 468 LFTs were taken by 211 255 12-18 years old, and 163 914 by 52 116 5-11 years old between 6 November 2020 and 31 July 2021. Five thousand three hundred and fourteen (2.5%) 12-18 years old and 1996 (3.8%) 5-11 years old returned LFT positives, with 3829 (72.1%) and 1535 (76.9%) confirmatory PCRs, and 3357 (87.7%) and 1383 (90.1%) confirmatory PCR-positives, respectively.Monthly proportions of LFT positive with PCR negative varied between 4.7% and 35.3% in 12-18 years old (corresponding proportion of all tests positive: 9.7% and 0.3%).Deprivation and non-White ethnicity were associated with reduced uptake of confirmatory PCR.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial inequalities in confirmatory testing need more attention to avoid further disadvantage through education loss. When prevalence is low additional measures, including confirmatory testing, are needed. Local Directors of Public Health taking more control over schools testing may be needed.

FUNDING

DHSC, MRC, NIHR, EPSRC.

Tracking the incidence and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection using historical maternal booking serum samples

The early transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK are unknown but their investigation is critical to aid future pandemic planning. We tested over 11,000 anonymised, stored historic antenatal serum samples, given at two north-west London NHS trusts in 2019 and 2020, for total antibody to SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (anti-RBD). Estimated prevalence of seroreactivity increased from 1% prior to mid-February 2020 to 17% in September 2020. Our results show higher prevalence of seroreactivity to SARS-CoV-2 in younger, non-white ethnicity, and more deprived groups. We found no significant interaction between the effects of ethnicity and deprivation. Derived from prevalence, the estimated incidence of seroreactivity reflects the trends observed in daily hospitalisations and deaths in London that followed 10 and 13 days later, respectively. We quantified community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in London, which peaked in late March / early April 2020 with no evidence of community transmission until after January 2020. Our study was not able to determine the date of introduction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus but demonstrates the value of stored antenatal serum samples as a resource for serosurveillance during future outbreaks.

Study-design in pandemics: From surveillance and performance-evaluation to licensing and pharmacovigilance

Andy Grieve, the first pharmaceutical statistician to be President of the Royal Statistical Society, practiced in the regulated world of drug development. With reduction in drug development costs as his motivation, Grieve advanced Bayesian methods for developing predictive methods for efficacy and toxicity - to be used as early as possible in the drug development process; and his presidential address exhorted statisticians to weigh-in wherever data are used to make decisions. Diagnostic tests for infectious diseases are less regulated than drugs and vaccines unless the blood supply is at risk. Unlike in the HIV and HCV pandemics of the late 20th century, even well-designed surveys linked to a volunteered biological sample (to be tested for SARS-CoV-2 antigen or antibodies) have had modest or low consent rates. Record-linkage, statistical design and reporting standards have seen triumph and tragedy. Among the triumphs are: Liverpool's insistence on dual testing (lateral flow device; polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) of some 6000 asymptomatic citizens who attended for SARS-CoV-2-screening; two tricky randomized controlled public-policy trials on daily contact testing for close contacts of index cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection versus self-isolation (with or without initial PCR); and among already-consented participants in surveillance, over 80% secondary consent for linkage to their health records, including the Immunization Management Service. Before the next pandemic we need to entrench better regulation of diagnostic tests, better informed consent (not via weblinks), better feedback to participants, and transparency about basic safety data.

Breast cancer incidence and survival in Scotland by socio-economic deprivation and tumour subtype

Background

Women from socio-economically deprived areas are less likely to develop and then to survive breast cancer (BC). Whether associations between deprivation and BC incidence and survival differ by tumour molecular subtypes and mode of detection in Scotland are unknown.

Methods

Data consisted of 62,378 women diagnosed with invasive BC between 2000 and 2016 in Scotland. Incidence rates and time trends were calculated for oestrogen receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER−) tumours and stratified by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles and screening status. SIMD is an area-based measure derived across seven domains: income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR [95% confidence intervals]) for BC death by immunohistochemical surrogates of molecular subtypes for the most versus the least deprived quintile. We adjusted for mode of detection and other confounders.

Results

In Scotland, screen-detected ER+tumour incidence increased over time, particularly in the least deprived quintile [Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) = 2.9% with 95% CI from 1.2 to 4.7]. No marked differences were observed for non-screen-detected ER+tumours or ER− tumours by deprivation. BC mortality was higher in the most compared to the least deprived quintile irrespective of ER status (aHR = 1.29 [1.18, 1.41] for ER+ and 1.27 [1.09, 1.47] for ER− tumours). However, deprivation was associated with significantly higher mortality for luminal A and HER2−enriched tumours (aHR = 1.46 [1.13, 1.88] and 2.10 [1.23, 3.59] respectively) but weaker associations for luminal B and TNBC tumours that were not statistically significant.

Conclusions

Deprivation is associated with differential BC incidence trends for screen-detected ER+tumours and with higher mortality for select tumour subtypes. Future efforts should evaluate factors that might be associated with reduced survival in deprived populations and monitor progress stratified by tumour subtypes and mode of detection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10549-022-06632-1.

Medical research, data sharing, and properly informed consent

When Sheila M. Bird agreed to participate in a Covid surveillance study, she did not realise her negative test result and personal details would be passed to NHS Test and Trace. Here, she calls for closer scrutiny of privacy policies by research ethics committees, and clearer communication with study participants

When Sheila M. Bird agreed to participate in a Covid surveillance study, she did not realise her negative test result and personal details would be passed to NHS Test and Trace. Here, she calls for closer scrutiny of privacy policies by research ethics committees, and clearer communication with study participants.

Increasing drug-related mortality rates over the last decade in Scotland are not just due to an ageing cohort: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

In Europe, North America, and Australia, mortality due to drug-related (DR) causes amongst people who inject drugs (PWID) is a major issue. Our objective was to characterise temporal trends in DR mortality rates in a large cohort of PWID in Scotland over the past decade, all of whom had been diagnosed with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and to investigate factors associated with DR mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective longitudinal cohort study linking Scotland's national HCV Diagnosis Database and deaths registry. The study cohort consisted of all individuals with likely injection drug use-related route of HCV acquisition, who had been diagnosed with HCV between 1991 and 2018, and were alive and aged under 65 years on 1 January 2009. We used Lexis expansion to adjust for ageing cohort effects and calculated the mortality rate from an underlying/contributing DR cause over the period 2009-2018. We fitted Poisson regression models to estimate the temporal trend adjusting for attained age, sex, referral setting, region, and viraemic status at baseline.

RESULTS

Amongst the study population (n = 35,065; 236,914 person-years), a total of 1900 DR deaths occurred; the DR mortality rate increased from 5.6/1000 [101 deaths] in 2009 to 12.4/1000 [342] person-years in 2018. Increasing trends were observed for all age-groups except 55-64 years. The overall DR mortality rate was highest for referrals for HCV testing from prison (11.0/1000) and hospital settings (10.0/1000). Mortality increased with calendar time period, with significantly raised adjusted rate ratios (RRs) from 2015 (RR=1.40, 95% CI:1.16-1.69) to 2018 (RR=2.23, 95% CI:1.88-2.64), compared with 2011-2012, for older age (35-44: RR=1.37, 95% CI:1.20-1.56; 45-54: RR=1.32, CI:1.14-1.53) compared with <35 years, for persons diagnosed with HCV since 2009 (RR=1.34, 95% CI:1.21-1.49), and for prison and hospital referrals (RRs of 1.30, 1.37) compared with GP referrals.

CONCLUSION

Increasing DR mortality rates in Scotland over the past decade are not just due to an ageing cohort. Harm reduction services will likely need to expand and adapt to reverse the recent upward trends in DR mortality in PWID.

Covid tests in secondary schools: A statistical cause célèbre

Sheila Bird offers a personal account of the debate over rapid coronavirus screening in secondary schools, and the efforts to reinstate confirmatory PCR tests

Sheila Bird offers a personal account of the debate over rapid coronavirus screening in secondary schools, and the efforts to reinstate confirmatory PCR tests.

Quality of care for adult in-patients with malaria in a tertiary hospital in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Prompt detection and appropriate treatment of malaria prevents severe disease and death. The quality of care for adult malaria in-patients is not well documented in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Uganda. The study sought to describe the patterns of malaria diagnosis and treatment among adult in-patients admitted to the medical and gynaecological wards of Uganda's 1790-bed Mulago National Referral Hospital from December 2013 to April 2014.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 762 consented in-patients aged ≥ 18 years was assembled. Proportions of in-patients who received preadmission and in-hospital anti-malarials, missed Day 1 dosing of hospital-initiated anti-malarials and/or had malaria microscopy done were determined. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk-factors for missed Day 1 dosing of anti-malarials.

RESULTS

One in five (19%, 146/762) in-patients had an admission or discharge malaria diagnosis or both; with median age of 29 years (IQR, 22-42 years). Microscopy was requested in 77% (108/141) of in-patients with an admission malaria diagnosis; results were available for 46% (50/108), of whom 42% (21/50) tested positive for Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasitaemia. Only 13% (11/83) of in-patients who received in-hospital injectable artesunate (AS) or quinine (Q) received follow-up oral artemether-lumefantrine (AL); 2 of 18 severe malaria cases received follow-up oral AL. Injectable AS only (47%, 47/100) was the most frequent hospital-initiated anti-malarial treatment followed by injectable Q only (23%, 23/100) amongst in-patients who received in-hospital anti-malarials. A quarter (25%, 25/100; 95% CI: 17-35%) of in-patients missed Day 1 dosing of hospital-initiated anti-malarials. Each additional admission diagnosis was more than two-fold likely to increase the odds of missed Day 1 dosing of in-hospital anti-malarials (aOR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.52-4.56; P-value = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Half the malaria microscopy results were not available; yet, the rate of testing was high. The majority of in-patients initiated on injectable AS or Q did not receive the recommended follow-up oral AL. One in four in-patients delayed to initiate hospital anti-malarials by at least one calendar day. The hospital should encourage prompt availability of malaria test-results to promote the timely initiation and completion of anti-malarial treatment, thereby improving the quality of care for hospitalized malaria patients in Uganda.

Scotland's 2009-2015 methadone-prescription cohort: Quintiles for daily dose of prescribed methadone and risk of methadone-specific death

AIMS

As methadone clients age, their drug-related death (DRD) risks increase, more than doubling at 45+ years for methadone-specific DRDs.

METHODS

Using Community Health Index (CHI) numbers, mortality to 31 December 2015 was ascertained for 36 347 methadone-prescription clients in Scotland during 2009-2015. Cohort entry, quantity of prescribed methadone and daily dose (actual or recovered by effective, simple rules) were defined by clients' first CHI-identified methadone prescription after 30 June 2009 and used in proportional hazards analysis. As custodian of death records, National Records of Scotland identified non-DRDs from DRDs. Methadone-specific DRD means methadone was implicated but neither heroin nor buprenorphine.

RESULTS

The cohort's 192 928 person-years included 1857 non-DRDs and 1323 DRDs (42%), 546 of which were methadone specific. Actual/recovered daily dose was available for 26 533 (73%) clients who experienced 420 methadone-specific DRDs. Top quintile for daily dose at first CHI-identified methadone prescription was >90 mg. Age 45+ years at cohort-entry (hazard ratio vs 25-34 years: 3.1, 95% confidence interval: 2.4-4.2), top quintile for baseline daily dose of prescribed methadone (vs 50-70 mg: 1.9, 1.1-3.1) and being female (1.3, 1.0-1.6) significantly increased clients' risk of methadone-specific DRD.

CONCLUSION

Extra care is needed when methadone daily dose exceeds 90 mg. Females' higher risk for methadone-specific DRD is new and needs validation. Further analyses of prescribed daily dose linked to mortality for large cohorts of methadone clients are needed internationally, together with greater pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic understanding of methadone by age and sex. Balancing age-related risks is challenging for prescribers who manage chronic opiate dependency against additional uncertainty about the nature, strength and pharmacological characteristics of drugs from illegal markets.

Fatal accident inquiries into 83 deaths in Scottish prison custody: 2010-2013

BACKGROUND

The only non-legal reference in Lord Cullen's Review of fatal accident inquiry (FAI) Legislation in Scotland (2009) was my audit of FAIs into 97 deaths in prison custody in Scotland, 1999-2003: recommending that waiting time from prisoner death to end of FAI should be less than 1 year for 90% of FAIs, and epidemiological rules for FAIs to have a written determination versus formal findings.

AIMS

Audit of FAIs into 83 deaths in Scottish prison custody in the period 2010-2013.

METHOD

Assessement of waiting times from prisoner death to end of FAI; dissemination of written determinations; self-inflicted death rate per 1000 prisoner-years; cause of natural deaths; and yellow card submissions. Detailed cross-checking was nec37essary between Scottish Prison Service and courts' websites and the Scottish Fatalities Investigation Unit.

RESULTS

Of 83 FAIs into deaths in Scottish prison custody, 2010-2013, 37 (45%) were long-awaited (ongoing >2 years after the prisoner's death); 16 (19%, 95% CI 11-28%) beyond 3 years. Of 37 long-awaited FAIs, 27 made written determinations but only 12 of these (44%) were published. Self-inflicted deaths numbered 36: 1.1 per 1000 prisoner-years (95% CI 0.75-1.48). Of 47 deaths from natural causes, cardiovascular disease accounted for 23 (49%, 95% CI 34-63%); liver disease was implicated in 10 of 47. To support pharmacovigilance, submissions were made to Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Agency for eight deaths (10%, 95% CI 4-19%).

CONCLUSIONS

FAIs into prisoner deaths in Scotland are too long-awaited given that four (5%) identified precautions that could have prevented death.

Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data

BACKGROUND

We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology.

METHODS

Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to assess whether significant differences were observed in incidence trends by ER status.

RESULTS

Overall, ER-positive tumour incidence increased by 0.4%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.1, 1.0). Among routinely screened women aged 50-69 years, we observed an increase in ASR from 1997 to 2011 (1.6%/year, 95% CI: 1.2-2.1). ER-negative tumour incidence decreased among all ages by 2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.9 to -1.1%) over the study period. Compared with the 1941-1959 birth cohort, women born in 1912-1940 had lower incidence rate ratios (IRR) for ER+ tumours and women born in 1960-1986 had lower IRR for ER- tumours.

CONCLUSIONS

Future incidence and survival reporting should be monitored by molecular subtypes to inform clinical planning and cancer control programmes.

Prevalence of recent fentanyl use among treated users of illicit opioids in England: based on piloted urine drug screens

OBJECTIVE

To use a pilot of national fentanyl screening to establish the current prevalence of recent fentanyl use among treated users of illicit opioids in the English treatment system and inform the design of a full study.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional fentanyl metabolite urine screening in randomly-selected study sites, stratified to cover all nine geographical regions of England, supplemented with self-report subsequent to a positive fentanyl test.

PATIENTS

468 adult (18 years of age and above) patients receiving treatment for opioid use disorder, screened December 2017 to May 2018.

RESULTS

The fentanyl-positive rate in patients receiving treatment for opioid use disorder in the English treatment system was 3% (15/468, 95% CI 1.8% to 5.2%) with a per-site range (for the 10 sites in 9 regions where fentanyl was detected) of between 2% (1/57) and 15% (4/27). Self-report data indicated that the majority of fentanyl-positives (12/15, 80%) was unaware of having purchased fentanyl.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite alerts already in place, patients receiving treatment for opioid use disorder, who were fentanyl-positive, were unwittingly purchasing and consuming fentanyl.

Ageing opioid users' increased risk of methadone-specific death in the UK

BACKGROUND

The first evidence that the hazard ratio (HR) for methadone-specific death rises more steeply with age-group than for all drug-related deaths (DRDs) came from Scotland's cohort of 33,000 methadone-prescription clients. We aim to examine, for England, whether illicit opioid users' risk of methadone-specific death increases with age; and to pool age-related HRs for methadone-specific deaths with those for Scotland's methadone-prescription clients.

METHODS

The setting is all services in England that provide publicly-funded, structured treatment for illicit opioid users, the methodology linkage of the English National Drug Treatment Monitoring System and mortality database, and key measurements are DRDs, methadone-specific DRDs, or heroin-specific DRDs, by age-group and gender, with proportional hazards adjustment for substances used, injecting status and periods in/out of treatment.

RESULTS

Linkage was achieved for 129,979 adults receiving prescribing treatment modalities for opioid dependence during April 2005 to March 2009 and followed-up for 378,009 person-years (pys). There were 1,266 DRDs: 271 methadone-specific (7 per 10,000 pys: irrespective of gender) and 473 heroin-specific (15 per 10,000 pys for males, 7 for females). Methadone-specific DRD-rate per 10,000 person-years was 3.5 (95% CI: 2.7-4.4) at 18-34 years, 8.9 (CI: 7.3-10.5) at 35-44 years and 18 (CI: 13.8-21.2) at 45+ years; heroin-specific DRD-rate was unchanged with age. Relative to 25-34 years, pooled HRs for UK clients' methadone-specific deaths were: 0.87 at <25 years (95% CI: 0.56-1.35); 2.14 at 35-44 years (95% CI: 1.76-2.60); 3.75 at 45+ years (95% CI: 2.99-4.70).

CONCLUSION

International testing and explanation are needed of UK's sharp age-related increase in the risk of methadone-specific death. Clients should be alerted that their risk of methadone-specific death increases as they age.

Multiple Systems Estimation (or Capture-Recapture Estimation) to Inform Public Policy

Estimating population sizes has long been of interest, from the estimation of the human or ecological population size within regions or countries to the hidden number of civilian casualties in a war. Total enumeration of the population, for example, via a census, is often infeasible or simply impractical. However, a series of partial enumerations or observations of the population is often possible. This has led to the ideas of capture-recapture methods, which have been extensively used within ecology to estimate the size of wildlife populations, with an associated measure of uncertainty, and are most effectively applied when there are multiple capture occasions. Capture-recapture ideology can be more widely applied to multiple data-sources, by the linkage of individuals across the multiple lists. This is often referred to as Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE). The MSE approach has been preferred when estimating "capture-shy" or hard-to-reach populations, including those caught up in the criminal justice system; or homeless; or trafficked; or civilian casualties of war. Motivated by a range of public policy applications of MSE, each briefly introduced, we discuss practical problems with potentially substantial methodological implications. They include: "period" definition; "case" definition; when an observed count is not a true count of the population of interest but an upper bound due to mismatched definitions; exact or probabilistic matching of "cases" across different lists; demographic or other information about the "case" which may influence capture-propensities; required permissions to access extant-lists; list-creation by research-teams or interested parties; referrals (if presence on list A results - almost surely - in presence on list B); different mathematical models leading to widely different estimated population sizes; uncertainty in estimation; computational efficiency; external validation; hypothesis-generation; and additional independent external information. Returning to our motivational applications, we focus on whether the uncertainty which qualified their estimates was sufficiently narrow to orient public policy; and, if not, what options were available and/or taken to reduce the uncertainty or to seek external validation. We also consider whether MSE was hypothesis-generating: in the sense of having spawned new lines of inquiry.

Effect of initiating drug treatment on the risk of drug-related poisoning death and acquisitive crime among offending heroin users

BACKGROUND

A recent Cochrane review of randomised trials identified a lack of evidence for interventions provided to drug-using offenders. We use routine data to address whether contact with treatment services reduces heroin users' likelihood of a future acquisitive offence or drug-related poisoning (DRP) death.

METHODS

Heroin-users were identified from probation assessments and linked to drug-treatment, mortality and offending records. The study cohort was selected to ensure that the subject was not: in prison, in treatment or had recently left treatment. Subjects were classed as initiators if they attended a triage appointment within two weeks of their assessment; non-initiators otherwise. Initiator and non-initiators were compared over a maximum of one year, with respect to their risk of recorded acquisitive offence or DRP-death. Balance was sought using propensity score matching and missing data were accounted for using multiple imputation.

RESULTS

Nine percent of assessments identified for analysis were classed as initiators. Accounting for observed confounding and missing data, there was a reduction in DRPs associated with initiator assessments, however there was uncertainty around this estimate such that a null-effect could not be ruled out (HR: 0.42, 95% CI 0.17-1.04). There was no evidence of a decrease in the recidivism risk, in fact the analysis showed a small increase (HR: 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.18).

CONCLUSION

For heroin-using offenders, initial contact with treatment services does not appear to reduce the likelihood of a future acquisitive offence.

Insights into the link between drug use and criminality: Lifetime offending of criminally-active opiate users

BACKGROUND

We test whether the offending trajectory of those who test positive for opiates is greater than test-negative controls and whether the relationship is constant both prior to, and post, opiate initiation. We consider whether these relationships differ according to gender and offence type.

METHODS

The study provides an analysis of historical offending records in adults linked to test results for opiate and cocaine metabolites. Those testing positive for opiates were linked to treatment records to retrieve data on age of opiate initiation. Rate ratios (RR) were calculated to compare opiate positive testers to opiate and cocaine negative controls, separately by gender and adjusting for age and birth cohort. Age of opiate initiation was included in a second model as a time-dependent variable. Within-subject clustering was accounted for using generalised estimating equations.

RESULTS

Opiate-positive cases had higher rates of offending than test-negative controls, both prior to, and post, opiate initiation. Initiation of opiate use increased the RR by 16% for males but doubled it for females. The RR increase in non-serious acquisitive crime was greater than that seen in serious crime. For males only, opiate initiation narrowed the difference in violent offending rate between cases and controls. A larger offending increase was associated with opiate initiation in female, compared to male, users.

CONCLUSIONS

For most crime categories, the difference between groups is exacerbated by opiate initiation. The findings indicate that opiate prevention initiatives might be effective in reducing offending, particularly among females.

Randomized controlled pilot trial of naloxone-on-release to prevent post-prison opioid overdose deaths

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Naloxone is an opioid antagonist used for emergency resuscitation following opioid overdose. Prisoners with a history of heroin injection have a high risk of drug-related death soon after release from prison. The NALoxone InVEstigation (N-ALIVE) pilot trial (ISRCTN34044390) tested feasibility measures for randomized provision of naloxone-on-release (NOR) to eligible prisoners in England.

DESIGN

Parallel-group randomized controlled pilot trial.

SETTING

English prisons.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1685 adult heroin injectors, incarcerated for at least 7 days pre-randomization, release due within 3 months and more than 6 months since previous N-ALIVE release.

INTERVENTION

Using 1 : 1 minimization, prisoners were randomized to receive on release a pack containing either a single 'rescue' injection of naloxone or a control pack with no syringe.

MEASUREMENTS

Key feasibility outcomes were tested against prior expectations: on participation (14 English prisons; 2800 prisoners), consent (75% for randomization), returned prisoner self-questionnaires (RPSQs: 207), NOR-carriage (75% in first 4 weeks) and overdose presence (80%).

FINDINGS

Prisons (16) and prisoners (1685) were willing to participate [consent rate, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 70-74%]; 218 RPSQs were received; NOR-carriage (95% CI = 63-79%) and overdose presence (95% CI = 75-84%) were as expected. We randomized 842 to NOR and 843 to control during 30 months but stopped early, because only one-third of NOR administrations were to the ex-prisoner. Nine deaths within 12 weeks of release were registered for 1557 randomized participants released before 9 December 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Large randomized trials are feasible with prison populations. Provision of take-home emergency naloxone prior to prison release may be a life-saving interim measure to prevent heroin overdose deaths among ex-prisoners and the wider population.

External data required timely response by the Trial Steering-Data Monitoring Committee for the NALoxone InVEstigation (N-ALIVE) pilot trial

The prison-based N-ALIVE pilot trial had undertaken to notify the Research Ethics Committee and participants if we had reason to believe that the N-ALIVE pilot trial would not proceed to the main trial. In this paper, we describe how external data for the third year of before/after evaluation from Scotland's National Naloxone Programme, a related public health policy, were anticipated by eliciting prior opinion about the Scottish results in the month prior to their release as official statistics. We summarise how deliberations by the N-ALIVE Trial Steering-Data Monitoring Committee (TS-DMC) on N-ALIVE's own interim data, together with those on naloxone-on-release (NOR) from Scotland, led to the decision to cease randomization in the N-ALIVE pilot trial and recommend to local Principal Investigators that NOR be offered to already-randomized prisoners who had not yet been released.

Antibiotic-associated suspected adverse drug reactions among hospitalized patients in Uganda: a prospective cohort study

We sought to determine the prevalence at admission and incidence during hospitalization of antibiotic-associated suspected adverse drug reactions (aa-ADRs) among Ugandan inpatients; and to characterize these aa-ADRs. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 762 consented adults admitted on medical and gynecological wards of the 1790-bed Mulago National Referral Hospital. Thirty percent were known HIV-seropositive (232/762). Nineteen percent (148/762; 95% CI: 17-22%) of inpatients experienced at least one aa-ADR. At hospital admission, 6% (45/762; 95% CI: 4-8%) of patients had at least one aa-ADR; and 15% (45/300; 11-20%) of those who had received antibiotics in the 4-weeks preadmission. Twenty-four (53%) of these 45 patients had serious aa-ADRs. The incidence of aa-ADRs was 19% (117/629; 95% CI: 16-22%) of patients who received antibiotics [community-acquired: 9% (27/300; 95% CI: 6-13%); hospital-acquired: 16% (94/603; 95% CI: 13-19%)]: 39 (33%) of 117 patients had serious aa-ADRs. Of 269 aa-ADRs, 115 (43%) were community-acquired, 66 (25%) probable/definite, 171 (64%) preventable, 86 (32%) serious, and 24 (9%) rare. Ceftriaxone was the most frequently implicated for serious hospital-acquired aa-ADRs. Cotrimoxazole, isoniazid, rifampicin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide were the most frequently linked to serious community-acquired aa-ADRs. Fatal jaundice (isoniazid), life-threatening difficulty in breathing with shortness of breath (rifampicin) and disabling itchy skin rash with numbness of lower swollen legs (ethambutol, isoniazid) were observed. Pharmaceutical quality testing of implicated antibiotics could be worthwhile. Periodic on-ward collection and analysis of antibiotic-safety-data standardized by consumption is an efficient method of tracking antibiotics with 1%-risk for serious aa-ADRs.

Statistical issues in first-in-human studies on BIA 10-2474: Neglected comparison of protocol against practice

By setting the regulatory-approved protocol for a suite of first-in-human studies on BIA 10-2474 against the subsequent French investigations, we highlight 6 key design and statistical issues, which reinforce recommendations by a Royal Statistical Society Working Party, which were made in the aftermath of cytokine release storm in 6 healthy volunteers in the United Kingdom in 2006. The 6 issues are dose determination, availability of pharmacokinetic results, dosing interval, stopping rules, appraisal by safety committee, and clear algorithm required if combining approvals for single and multiple ascending dose studies.

Incidence, risk factors and risk prediction of hospital-acquired suspected adverse drug reactions: a prospective cohort of Ugandan inpatients

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence and risk factors of hospital-acquired suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) among Ugandan inpatients. We also constructed risk scores to predict and qualitatively assess for peculiarities between low-risk and high-risk ADR patients.

METHODS

Prospective cohort of consented adults admitted on medical and gynaecological wards of the 1790-bed Mulago National Referral Hospital. Hospital-acquired suspected ADRs were dichotomised as possible (possible/probable/definite) or not and probable (probable/definite) or not, using the Naranjo scale. Risk scores were generated from coefficients of ADR risk-factor logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The incidence of possible hospital-acquired suspected ADRs was 25% (194/762, 95% CI: 22% to 29%): 44% (85/194) experienced serious possible ADRs. The risk of probable ADRs was 11% (87/762, 95% CI 9% to 14%): 46% (40/87) had serious probable ADRs. Antibacterials-only (51/194), uterotonics-only (21/194), cardiovascular drugs-only (16/194), antimalarials-only (12/194) and analgesics-only (10/194) were the most frequently implicated. Treatment with six or more conventional medicines during hospitalisation (OR=2.31, 95% CI 1.29 to 4.15) and self-reported herbal medicine use during the 4 weeks preadmission (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.13) were the risk factors for probable hospital-acquired ADRs. Risk factors for possible hospital-acquired ADRs were: treatment with six or more conventional medicines (OR=2.72, 95% CI 1.79 to 4.13), herbal medicine use during the 4 weeks preadmission (OR=1.68, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.43), prior 3 months hospitalisation (OR=1.57, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.26) and being on gynaecological ward (OR=2.16, 95% CI 1.36 to 3.44). More drug classes were implicated among high-risk ADR-patients, with cardiovascular drugs being the most frequently linked to possible ADRs.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of hospital-acquired suspected ADRs was higher with preadmission herbal medicine use and treatment with six or more conventional medicines during hospitalisation. Our risk scores should be validated in large-scale studies and tested in routine clinical care.

Risk-factors for methadone-specific deaths in Scotland's methadone-prescription clients between 2009 and 2013

AIM

To quantify gender, age-group and quantity of methadone prescribed as risk factors for drugs-related deaths (DRDs), and for methadone-specific DRDs, in Scotland's methadone-prescription clients.

DESIGN

Linkage to death-records for Scotland's methadone-clients with one or more Community Health Index (CHI)-identified methadone prescriptions during July 2009 to June 2013.

SETTING

Scotland's Prescribing Information System and National Records of Scotland.

MEASUREMENTS

Covariates defined at first CHI-identified methadone prescription, and person-years at-risk (pys) thereafter until the earlier of death-date or 31 December 2013. Methadone-specific DRDs were defined as: methadone implicated but neither heroin nor buprenorphine. Hazard ratios (HRs) were assessed using proportional hazards regression.

FINDINGS

Scotland's CHI-identified methadone-prescription cohort comprised 33,128 clients, 121,254 pys, 1,171 non-DRDs and 760 DRDs (6.3 per 1,000 pys), of which 362 were methadone-specific. Irrespective of gender, methadone-specific DRD-rate, per 1,000 pys, was higher in the 35+ age-group (4.2; 95% CI: 3.6-4.7) than for younger clients (1.9; 95% CI: 1.5-2.2). For methadone-specific DRDs, age-related HRs (e.g., 2.9 at 45+ years; 95% CI: 2.1-3.9) were steeper than for all DRDs (1.9; 95% CI: 1.5-2.4); there was no hazard-reduction for females; no gender by age-group interaction; and, unlike for all DRDs, the highest quintile for quantity of prescribed methadone at cohort-entry (>1960mg) was associated with increased HR (1.8; 95% CI: 1.3-2.5).

CONCLUSION

Higher methadone-specific DRD rates in older clients, irrespective of gender, call for better understanding of methadone's pharmaco-dynamics in older, opioid-dependent clients, many with progressive physical or mental ill-health.

Alpha-Fetoprotein Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Leads to a Standardized Analysis of Dynamic AFP to Improve Screening Based Detection

Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through screening can improve outcomes. However, HCC surveillance remains costly, cumbersome and suboptimal. We tested whether and how serum Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) should be used in HCC surveillance. Record linkage, dedicated pathways for management and AFP data-storage identified i) consecutive highly characterised cases of HCC diagnosed in 2009–14 and ii) a cohort of ongoing HCC-free patients undergoing regular HCC surveillance from 2009. These two well-defined Scottish patient cohorts enabled us to test the utility of AFP surveillance. Of 304 cases of HCC diagnosed over 6 years, 42% (129) were identified by a dedicated HCC surveillance programme. Of these 129, 47% (61) had a detectable lesion first identified by screening ultrasound (US) but 38% (49) were prompted by elevated AFP. Despite pre-HCC diagnosis AFP >20kU/L being associated with poor outcome, ‘AFP-detected’ tumours were offered potentially curative management as frequently as ‘US-detected’ HCCs; and had comparable survival. Linearity of serial log₁₀-transformed AFPs in HCC cases and in the screening ‘HCC-free’ cohort (n = 1509) provided indicators of high-risk AFP behaviour in HCC cases. An algorithm was devised in static mode, then tested dynamically. A case/control series in hepatitis C related disease demonstrated highly significant detection (p<1.72*10⁻⁵) of patients at high risk of developing HCC. These data support the use of AFP in HCC surveillance. We show proof-of-principle that an automated and further refine-able algorithmic interpretation of AFP can identify patients at higher risk of HCC. This approach could provide a cost-effective, user-friendly and much needed addition to US surveillance.

Nano- and micro-patterning biotemplated magnetic CoPt arrays

Patterned thin-films of magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) can be used to make: surfaces for manipulating and sorting cells, sensors, 2D spin-ices and high-density data storage devices. Conventional manufacture of patterned magnetic thin-films is not environmentally friendly because it uses high temperatures (hundreds of degrees Celsius) and high vacuum, which requires expensive specialised equipment. To tackle these issues, we have taken inspiration from nature to create environmentally friendly patterns of ferromagnetic CoPt using a biotemplating peptide under mild conditions and simple apparatus. Nano-patterning via interference lithography (IL) and micro-patterning using micro-contact printing (μCP) were used to create a peptide resistant mask onto a gold surface under ambient conditions. We redesigned a biotemplating peptide (CGSGKTHEIHSPLLHK) to self-assemble onto gold surfaces, and mineralised the patterns with CoPt at 18 °C in water. Ferromagnetic CoPt is biotemplated by the immobilised peptides, and the patterned MNPs maintain stable magnetic domains. This bioinspired study offers an ecological route towards developing biotemplated magnetic thin-films for use in applications such as sensing, cell manipulation and data storage.

Herbal medicine use and linked suspected adverse drug reactions in a prospective cohort of Ugandan inpatients

Background

Clinical history-taking can be employed as a standardized approach to elucidate the use of herbal medicines and their linked suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) among hospitalized patients. We sought to identify herbal medicines nominated by Ugandan inpatients; compare nomination rates by ward and gender; confirm the herbs’ known pharmacological properties from published literature; and identify ADRs linked to pre-admission use of herbal medicines.

Methods

Prospective cohort of consented adult inpatients designed to assess medication use and ADRs on one gynaecological and three medical wards of 1790-bed Mulago National Referral Hospital. Baseline and follow-up data were obtained on patients’ characteristics, including pre-admission use of herbal medicines.

Results

Fourteen percent (26/191) of females in Gynaecology nominated at least one specific herbal medicine compared with 20 % (114/571) of inpatients on medical wards [20 % (69/343) of females; 20 % (45/228) of males]. Frequent nominations were Persea americana (30), Mumbwa/multiple-herb clay rods (23), Aloe barbadensis (22), Beta vulgaris (12), Vernonia amygdalina (11), Commelina africana (7), Bidens pilosa (7), Hoslundia opposita (6), Mangifera indica (4), and Dicliptera laxata (4). Four inpatients experienced 10 suspected ADRs linked to pre-admission herbal medicine use including Commelina africana (4), multiple-herb-mumbwa (1), or unspecified local-herbs (5): three ADR-cases were abortion-related and one kidney-related.

Conclusions

The named herbal medicines and their nomination rates generally differed by specialized ward, probably guided by local folklore knowledge of their use. Clinical elicitation from inpatients can generate valuable safety data on herbal medicine use. However, larger routine studies might increase the utility of our method to assess herbal medicine use and detect herb-linked ADRs. Future studies should take testable samples of ADR-implicated herbal medicines for further analysis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12906-016-1125-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A novel design strategy for nanoparticles on nanopatterns: interferometric lithographic patterning of Mms6 biotemplated magnetic nanoparticles

Nanotechnology demands the synthesis of highly precise, functional materials, tailored for specific applications. One such example is bit patterned media. These high-density magnetic data-storage materials require specific and uniform magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) to be patterned over large areas (cm² range) in exact nanoscale arrays. However, the realisation of such materials for nanotechnology applications depends upon reproducible fabrication methods that are both precise and environmentally-friendly, for cost-effective scale-up. A potentially ideal biological fabrication methodology is biomineralisation. This is the formation of inorganic minerals within organisms, and is known to be highly controlled down to the nanoscale whilst being carried out under ambient conditions. The magnetotactic bacterium Magnetospirillum magneticum AMB-1 uses a suite of dedicated biomineralisation proteins to control the formation of magnetite MNPs within their cell. One of these proteins, Mms6, has been shown to control formation of magnetite MNPs in vitro. We have previously used Mms6 on micro-contact printed (μCP) patterned self-assembled monolayer (SAM) surfaces to control the formation and location of MNPs in microscale arrays, offering a bioinspired and green-route to fabrication. However, μCP cannot produce patterns reliably with nanoscale dimensions, and most alternative nanofabrication techniques are slow and expensive. Interferometric lithography (IL) uses the interference of laser light to produce nanostructures over large areas via a simple process implemented under ambient conditions. Here we combine the bottom-up biomediated approach with a top down IL methodology to produce arrays of uniform magnetite MNPs (86 ± 21 nm) with a period of 357 nm. This shows a potentially revolutionary strategy for the production of magnetic arrays with nanoscale precision in a process with low environmental impact, which could be scaled readily to facilitate large-scale production of nanopatterned surface materials for technological applications.

Engagement in a National Naloxone Programme among people who inject drugs

BACKGROUND

Availability of the opioid antagonist naloxone for lay administration has grown substantially since first proposed in 1996. Gaps remain, though, in our understanding of how people who inject drugs (PWID) engage with naloxone programmes over time.

AIMS

This paper aimed to address three specific evidence gaps: the extent of naloxone supply to PWID; supply-source (community or prisons); and the carriage of naloxone among PWID.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Analysis of Scotland's Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative (NESI) responses in 2011-2012 and 2013-2014 was undertaken with a specific focus on the extent of Scotland's naloxone supply to PWID; including by source (community or prisons); and on the carriage of naloxone. Differences in responses between the two surveys were measured using Chi-square tests together with 95% confidence intervals for rate-differences over time.

RESULTS

The proportion of NESI participants who reported that they had been prescribed naloxone within the last year increased significantly from 8% (175/2146; 95% CI: 7-9%) in 2011-2012 to 32% (745/2331; 95% CI: 30% to 34%) in 2013-2014. In contrast, the proportion of NESI participants who carried naloxone with them on the day they were interviewed decreased significantly from 16% (27/169; 95% CI: 10% to 22%) in 2011-2012 to 5% (39/741; 95% CI: 4% to 7%) in 2013-2014.

CONCLUSIONS

The supply of naloxone to PWID has increased significantly since the introduction of a National Naloxone Programme in Scotland in January 2011. In contrast, naloxone carriage is low and decreased between the two NESI surveys; this area requires further investigation.

Effectiveness of Scotland's National Naloxone Programme for reducing opioid-related deaths: a before (2006-10) versus after (2011-13) comparison

AIMS

To assess the effectiveness for Scotland's National Naloxone Programme (NNP) by comparison between 2006-10 (before) and 2011-13 (after NNP started in January 2011) and to assess cost-effectiveness.

DESIGN

This was a pre-post evaluation of a national policy. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by prescription costs against life-years gained per opioid-related death (ORD) averted.

SETTING

Scotland, in community settings and all prisons.

INTERVENTION

Brief training and standardized naloxone supply became available to individuals at risk of opioid overdose.

MEASUREMENTS

ORDs as identified by National Records of Scotland. Look-back determined the proportion of ORDs who, in the 4 weeks before ORD, had been (i) released from prison (primary outcome) and (ii) released from prison or discharged from hospital (secondary). We report 95% confidence intervals for effectiveness in reducing the primary (and secondary) outcome in 2011-13 versus 2006-10. Prescription costs were assessed against 1 or 10 life-years gained per averted ORD.

FINDINGS

In 2006-10, 9.8% of ORDs (193 of 1970) were in people released from prison within 4 weeks of death, whereas only 6.3% of ORDs in 2011-13 followed prison release (76 of 1212, P < 0.001; this represented a difference of 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-5.4%)]. This reduction in the proportion of prison release ORDs translates into 42 fewer prison release ORDs (95% CI = 19-65) during 2011-13, when 12,000 naloxone kits were issued at current prescription cost of £225,000. Scotland's secondary outcome reduced from 19.0 to 14.9%, a difference of 4.1% (95% CI = 1.4-6.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Scotland's National Naloxone Programme, which started in 2011, was associated with a 36% reduction in the proportion of opioid-related deaths that occurred in the 4 weeks following release from prison.

Extensive antibiotic prescription rate among hospitalized patients in Uganda: but with frequent missed-dose days

Objectives

To describe the patterns of systemic antibiotic use and missed-dose days and detail the prescription, dispensing and administration of frequently used hospital-initiated antibiotics among Ugandan inpatients.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort of consented adult inpatients admitted on the medical and gynaecological wards of the 1790 bed Mulago National Referral Hospital.

Results

Overall, 79% (603/762; 95% CI: 76%–82%) of inpatients received at least one antibiotic during hospitalization while 39% (300/762; 95% CI: 36%–43%) had used at least one antibiotic in the 4 weeks pre-admission; 1985 antibiotic DDDs, half administered parenterally, were consumed in 3741 inpatient-days. Two-fifths of inpatients who received at least one of the five frequently used hospital-initiated antibiotics (ceftriaxone, metronidazole, ciprofloxacin, amoxicillin and azithromycin) missed at least one antibiotic dose-day (44%, 243/558). The per-day risk of missed antibiotic administration was greatest on day 1: ceftriaxone (36%, 143/398), metronidazole (27%, 67/245), ciprofloxacin (34%, 39/114) and all inpatients who missed at least one dose-day of prescribed amoxicillin and azithromycin. Most patients received fewer doses than were prescribed: ceftriaxone (74%, 273/371), ciprofloxacin (90%, 94/105) and metronidazole (97%, 222/230). Of prescribed doses, only 62% of ceftriaxone doses (1178/1895), 35% of ciprofloxacin doses (396/1130) and 27% of metronidazole doses (1043/3862) were administered. Seven percent (13/188) of patients on intravenous metronidazole and 6% (5/87) on intravenous ciprofloxacin switched to oral route.

Conclusions

High rates of antibiotic use both pre-admission and during hospitalization were observed, with low parenteral/oral switch of hospital-initiated antibiotics. Underadministration of prescribed antibiotics was common, especially on the day of prescription, risking loss of efficacy and antibiotic resistance.

Impact of treatment for opioid dependence on fatal drug-related poisoning: a national cohort study in England

AIMS

To compare the change in illicit opioid users' risk of fatal drug-related poisoning (DRP) associated with opioid agonist pharmacotherapy (OAP) and psychological support, and investigate the modifying effect of patient characteristics, criminal justice system (CJS) referral and treatment completion.

DESIGN

National data linkage cohort study of the English National Drug Treatment Monitoring System and the Office for National Statistics national mortality database. Data were analysed using survival methods.

SETTING

All services in England that provide publicly funded, structured treatment for illicit opioid users.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults treated for opioid dependence during April 2005 to March 2009: 151,983 individuals; 69% male; median age 32.6 with 442,950 person-years of observation.

MEASUREMENTS

The outcome was fatal DRP occurring during periods in or out of treatment, with adjustment for age, gender, substances used, injecting status and CJS referral.

FINDINGS

There were 1499 DRP deaths [3.4 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.2-3.6]. DRP risk increased while patients were not enrolled in any treatment [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.55-1.92]. Risk when enrolled only in a psychological intervention was double that during OAP (aHR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.75-2.46). The increased risk when out of treatment was greater for men (aHR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.67-2.12), illicit drug injectors (aHR = 2.27, 95% CI = 1.97-2.62) and those reporting problematic alcohol use (aHR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.90-2.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who received only psychological support for opioid dependence in England appear to be at greater risk of fatal opioid poisoning than those who received opioid agonist pharmacotherapy.

Drugs-Related Death Soon after Hospital-Discharge among Drug Treatment Clients in Scotland: Record Linkage, Validation, and Investigation of Risk-Factors

We validate that the 28 days after hospital-discharge are high-risk for drugs-related death (DRD) among drug users in Scotland and investigate key risk-factors for DRDs soon after hospital-discharge. Using data from an anonymous linkage of hospitalisation and death records to the Scottish Drugs Misuse Database (SDMD), including over 98,000 individuals registered for drug treatment during 1 April 1996 to 31 March 2010 with 705,538 person-years, 173,107 hospital-stays, and 2,523 DRDs. Time-at-risk of DRD was categorised as: during hospitalization, within 28 days, 29–90 days, 91 days–1 year, >1 year since most recent hospital discharge versus ‘never admitted’. Factors of interest were: having ever injected, misuse of alcohol, length of hospital-stay (0–1 versus 2+ days), and main discharge-diagnosis. We confirm SDMD clients’ high DRD-rate soon after hospital-discharge in 2006–2010. DRD-rate in the 28 days after hospital-discharge did not vary by length of hospital-stay but was significantly higher for clients who had ever-injected versus otherwise. Three leading discharge-diagnoses accounted for only 150/290 DRDs in the 28 days after hospital-discharge, but ever-injectors for 222/290. Hospital-discharge remains a period of increased DRD-vulnerability in 2006–2010, as in 1996–2006, especially for those with a history of injecting.

Impact of opioid substitution therapy for Scotland's prisoners on drug-related deaths soon after prisoner release

AIM

To assess whether the introduction of a prison-based opioid substitution therapy (OST) policy was associated with a reduction in drug-related deaths (DRD) within 14 days after prison release.

DESIGN

Linkage of Scotland's prisoner database with death registrations to compare periods before (1996-2002) and after (2003-07) prison-based OST was introduced.

SETTING

All Scottish prisons.

PARTICIPANTS

People released from prison between 1 January 1996 and 8 October 2007 following an imprisonment of at least 14 days and at least 14 weeks after the preceding qualifying release.

MEASUREMENTS

Risk of DRD in the 12 weeks following release; percentage of these DRDs which occurred during the first 14 days.

FINDINGS

Before prison-based OST (1996-2002), 305 DRDs occurred in the 12 weeks after 80 200 qualifying releases, 3.8 per 1000 releases [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.4-4.2]; of these, 175 (57%) occurred in the first 14 days. After the introduction of prison-based OST (2003-07), 154 DRDs occurred in the 12 weeks after 70 317 qualifying releases, a significantly reduced rate of 2.2 per 1000 releases (95% CI = 1.8-2.5). However, there was no change in the proportion which occurred in the first 14 days, either for all DRDs (87: 56%) or for opioid-related DRDs.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the introduction of a prison-based opioid substitution therapy (OST) policy in Scotland, the rate of drug-related deaths in the 12 weeks following release fell by two-fifths. However, the proportion of deaths that occurred in the first 14 days did not change appreciably, suggesting that in-prison OST does not reduce early deaths after release.

Quantifying crime associated with drug use among a large cohort of sanctioned offenders in England and Wales

AIM

To assess the relationship between testing positive for opiates and/or cocaine and prior offending.

METHODS

139,925 persons (107,573 men) identified from a saliva test for opiate and cocaine metabolites following arrest in England and Wales, 1 April 2005-31 March 2009, were case-linked with 2-year recorded offending history. The prior offending rate, accounting for estimated incarceration periods, was calculated by: drug-test outcome; gender; four main crime categories (acquisitive, non-acquisitive, serious acquisitive, and non-serious acquisitive) and 16 sub-categories. Rate ratio (RR) compared opiate and/or cocaine positive to dual-negative testers. Adjusted rate ratio (aRR) controlled for age at drug test.

RESULTS

The relationship between testing positive for opiates and cocaine and prior 2-year offending was greater for women than men (aRR men 1.77; 95% CI: 1.75-1.79: women 3.51; 3.45-3.58). The association was weaker for those testing positive for opiates only (aRR: men: 1.66, 1.64-1.68; women 2.73, 2.66-2.80). Men testing positive for cocaine only had a lower rate of prior offending (aRR: 0.93, 0.92-0.94), women had a higher rate (aRR: 1.69, 1.64-1.74). The strongest associations were for non-serious acquisitive crimes (e.g. dually-positive: prostitution (women-only): aRR 24.9, 20.9-29.7; shoplifting: aRR men 4.05, 3.95-4.16; women 6.16, 5.92-6.41). Testing positive for opiates and cocaine was associated with violent offences among women (aRR: 1.54, 1.40-1.69) but not men (aRR: 0.98, 0.93-1.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Among drug-tested offenders, opiate use is associated with elevated prior offending and the association is stronger for women than men. Cocaine use is associated with prior offending only among women.

Modeling the initiation of others into injection drug use, using data from 2,500 injectors surveyed in Scotland during 2008-2009

The prevalence of injection drug use has been of especial interest for assessment of the impact of blood-borne viruses. However, the incidence of injection drug use has been underresearched. Our 2-fold aim in this study was to estimate 1) how many other persons, per annum, an injection drug user (IDU) has the equivalent of full responsibility (EFR) for initiating into injection drug use and 2) the consequences for IDUs' replacement rate. EFR initiation rates are strongly associated with incarceration history, so that our analysis of IDUs' replacement rate must incorporate when, in their injecting career, IDUs were first incarcerated. To do so, we have first to estimate piecewise constant incarceration rates in conjunction with EFR initiation rates, which are then combined with rates of cessation from injecting to model IDUs' replacement rate over their injecting career, analogous to the reproduction number of an epidemic model. We apply our approach to Scotland's IDUs, using over 2,500 anonymous injector participants who were interviewed in Scotland's Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative during 2008–2009. Our approach was made possible by the inclusion of key questions about initiations. Finally, we extend our model to include an immediate quit rate, as a reasoned compensation for higher-than-expected replacement rates, and we estimate how high initiates' quit rate should be for IDUs' replacement rate to be 1.