Estimation of the relative risk of developing clinical scrapie: the role of prion protein (PrP) genotype and selection bias

Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in Cervids and the Consequences of a Mutable Protein Conformation

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease of cervids (deer, elk, moose, etc.). It spreads readily from CWD-contaminated environments and among wild cervids. As of 2022, North American CWD has been found in 29 states, four Canadian provinces and South Korea. The Scandinavian form of CWD originated independently. Prions propagate their pathology by inducing a natively expressed prion protein (PrPC) to adopt the prion conformation (PrPSc). PrPC and PrPSc differ solely in their conformation. Like other prion diseases, transmissible CWD prions can arise spontaneously. The CWD prions can respond to selection pressures resulting in the emergence of new strain phenotypes. Annually, 11.5 million Americans hunt and harvest nearly 6 million deer, indicating that CWD is a potential threat to an important American food source. No tested CWD strain has been shown to be zoonotic. However, this may not be true for emerging strains. Should a zoonotic CWD strain emerge, it could adversely impact the hunting economy and game meat consumers.

Second passage of chronic wasting disease of mule deer to sheep by intracranial inoculation compared to classical scrapie

The origin of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids is unclear. One hypothesis suggests that CWD originated from scrapie in sheep. We compared the disease phenotype of sheep-adapted CWD to classical scrapie in sheep. We inoculated sheep intracranially with brain homogenate from first-passage mule deer CWD in sheep (sCWD^md). The attack rate in second-passage sheep was 100% (12 of 12). Sheep had prominent lymphoid accumulations of PrP^Sc reminiscent of classical scrapie. The pattern and distribution of PrP^Sc in the brains of sheep with CWD^md was similar to scrapie strain 13-7 but different from scrapie strain x124. The western blot glycoprofiles of sCWD^md were indistinguishable from scrapie strain 13-7; however, independent of sheep genotype, glycoprofiles of sCWD^md were different than x124. When sheep genotypes were evaluated individually, there was considerable overlap in the glycoprofiles that precluded significant discrimination between sheep CWD and scrapie strains. Our data suggest that the phenotype of CWD in sheep is indistinguishable from some strains of scrapie in sheep. Given our results, current detection techniques would be unlikely to distinguish CWD in sheep from scrapie in sheep if cross-species transmission occurred naturally. It is unknown if sheep are naturally vulnerable to CWD; however, the susceptibility of sheep after intracranial inoculation and lymphoid accumulation indicates that the species barrier is not absolute.

Transmission of the atypical/Nor98 scrapie agent to Suffolk sheep with VRQ/ARQ, ARQ/ARQ, and ARQ/ARR genotypes

Scrapie is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that occurs in sheep. Atypical/Nor98 scrapie occurs in sheep that tend to be resistant to classical scrapie and it is thought to occur spontaneously. The purpose of this study was to test the transmission of the Atypical/Nor98 scrapie agent in three genotypes of Suffolk sheep and characterize the distribution of misfolded prion protein (PrP^Sc). Ten sheep were intracranially inoculated with brain homogenate from a sheep with Atypical/Nor98 scrapie. All sheep with the ARQ/ARQ and ARQ/ARR genotypes developed Atypical/Nor98 scrapie confirmed by immunohistochemistry, and one sheep with the VRQ/ARQ genotype had detectable PrP^Sc consistent with Atypical/Nor98 scrapie at the experimental endpoint of 8 years. Sheep with mild early accumulations of PrP^Sc in the cerebellum had concomitant retinal PrP^Sc. Accordingly, large amounts of retinal PrP^Sc were identified in clinically affected sheep and sheep with dense accumulations of PrP^Sc in the cerebellum.

Pathogenesis, detection, and control of scrapie in sheep

In sheep, scrapie is a fatal neurologic disease that is caused by a misfolded protein called a prion (designated PrP^Sc). The normal cellular prion protein (PrP^C) is encoded by an endogenous gene, PRNP, that is present in high concentrations within the CNS. Although a broad range of functions has been described for PrP^C, its entire range of functions has yet to be fully elucidated. Accumulation of PrP^Sc results in neurodegeneration. The PRNP gene has several naturally occurring polymorphisms, and there is a strong correlation between scrapie susceptibility and PRNP genotype. The cornerstone of scrapie eradication programs is the selection of scrapie-resistant genotypes to eliminate classical scrapie. Transmission of classical scrapie in sheep occurs during the prenatal and periparturient periods when lambs are highly susceptible. Initially, the scrapie agent is disseminated throughout the lymphoid system and into the CNS. Shedding of the scrapie agent occurs before the onset of clinical signs. In contrast to classical scrapie, atypical scrapie is believed to be a spontaneous disease that occurs in isolated instances in older animals within a flock. The agent that causes atypical scrapie is not considered to be naturally transmissible. Transmission of the scrapie agent to species other than sheep, including deer, has been experimentally demonstrated as has the transmission of nonscrapie prion agents to sheep. The purpose of this review is to outline the current methods for diagnosing scrapie in sheep and the techniques used for studying the pathogenesis and host range of the scrapie agent. Also discussed is the US scrapie eradication program including recent updates.

Sheep Are Susceptible to the Bovine Adapted Transmissible Mink Encephalopathy Agent by Intracranial Inoculation and Have Evidence of Infectivity in Lymphoid Tissues

Transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME) is a food borne prion disease. Epidemiological and experimental evidence suggests similarities between the agents of TME and L-BSE. This experiment demonstrates the susceptibility of four different genotypes of sheep to the bovine adapted TME agent by intracranial inoculation. The four genotypes of sheep used in this experiment had polymorphisms corresponding to codons 136, 154, and 171 of the prion gene: V₁₃₆R₁₅₄Q₁₇₁/VRQ, VRQ/ARQ, ARQ/ARQ, and ARQ/ARR. All intracranially inoculated sheep without comorbidities (15/15) developed clinical signs and had detectable PrP^Sc by immunohistochemistry, western blot, and enzyme immunoassay (EIA). The mean incubation periods in sheep with bovine adapted TME correlated with their relative genotypic susceptibility. There was peripheral distribution of PrP^Sc in the trigeminal ganglion and neuromuscular spindles; however, unlike classical scrapie and C-BSE in sheep, sheep inoculated with the bovine TME agent did not have immunohistochemically detectable PrP^Sc in the lymphoid tissue. To rule out the presence of infectivity, the lymph nodes of two sheep genotypes, VRQ/VRQ, and ARQ/ARQ, were bioassayed in transgenic mice expressing ovine prion protein. Mice intracranially inoculated with retropharyngeal lymph node from a VRQ/VRQ sheep were EIA positive (3/17) indicating that sheep inoculated with the bovine TME agent harbor infectivity in their lymph nodes despite a lack of detection with conventional immunoassays. Western blot analysis demonstrated similarities in the migration patterns between bovine TME in sheep, the bovine adapted TME inoculum, and L-BSE. Overall, these results demonstrate that sheep are susceptible to the bovine adapted TME agent, and the tissue distribution of PrP^Sc in sheep with bovine TME is distinct from classical scrapie.

Potential scrapie-associated polymorphisms of the prion protein gene (PRNP) in Korean native black goats

Small ruminants, including sheep and goats are natural hosts of scrapie, and the progression of scrapie pathogenesis is strongly influenced by polymorphisms in the prion protein gene (PRNP). Although Korean native goats have been consumed as meat and health food, the evaluation of the susceptibility to scrapie in these goats has not been performed thus far. Therefore, we investigated the genotype and allele frequencies of PRNP polymorphisms in 211 Korean native goats and compared them with those in scrapie-affected animals from previous studies. We found a total of 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) including 10 nonsynonymous and 2 synonymous SNPs in Korean native goats. Significant differences in allele frequencies of PRNP codons 143 and 146 were found between scrapie-affected goats and Korean native goats (p < 0.01). By contrast, in PRNP codons 168, 211 and 222, there were no significant differences in the genotype and allele frequencies between scrapie-affected animals and Korean native goats. To evaluate structural changes caused by nonsynonymous SNPs, PolyPhen-2, PROVEAN and AMYCO analyses were performed. PolyPhen-2 predicted “possibly damaging” for W102G and R154H, “probably damaging” for G127S. AMYCO predicted relatively low for amyloid propensity of prion protein in Korean native black goats. This is the first study to evaluate the scrapie sensitivity and the first in silico evaluation of nonsynonymous SNPs in Korean native black goats.

Sheep With the Homozygous Lysine-171 Prion Protein Genotype Are Resistant to Classical Scrapie After Experimental Oronasal Inoculation

Scrapie is a fatal neurodegenerative disease of sheep resulting from the accumulation of a misfolded form of the prion protein (PrP^Sc). Polymorphisms in the host prion protein gene ( PRNP) can affect susceptibility to the scrapie agent. Lysine (K) at codon 171 of PRNP is an inadequately characterized, naturally occurring polymorphism in sheep. We inoculated Barbado sheep with PRNP genotypes QQ171, QK171, or KK171 by either the intracranial (IC, n = 2-7 per genotype) or oronasal (ON, n = 5 per genotype) routes with a scrapie isolate to investigate the effect of lysine at codon 171 on susceptibility. When neurologic signs were observed or at the end of the experiment (70 months postinoculation [MPI]), sheep were necropsied and tissue collected for histopathologic, immunohistochemical, enzyme immunoassay and Western blot examination for PrP^Sc. All genotypes of sheep developed scrapie after IC inoculation. After ON inoculation, sheep with the QK171 genotype had prolonged incubation periods compared to the QQ genotype. During the experiment, 2 of 5 of the ON-inoculated QK genotype sheep developed neurologic signs and had PrP^Sc in the brain. The other 3 of 5 sheep were asymptomatic at 70 MPI but had detectable PrP^Sc in peripheral tissues. None of the ON-inoculated sheep of the KK171 genotype developed signs or had detectable PrP^Sc. Our experiments demonstrate that sheep with the KK171 genotype are resistant to scrapie via oronasal exposure and that sheep with the QK171 genotype have prolonged incubation relative to QQ171 sheep. The K171 prion protein allele may be useful to enhance scrapie resistance in certain breeds of sheep.

Spatio-temporal and risk factor analysis of alleles related to Scrapie resistance in sheep in Great Britain before, during and after a national breeding program

Certain genotypes of sheep have been identified to increase their susceptibility (the VRQ allele) or resistance (the ARR allele) to classical scrapie. This study's aim was to assess the spatio-temporal pattern of the ARR and VRQ alleles in Great Britain (GB) and to explore the risk factors associated to their presence. Data was collected from the GB scrapie active surveillance program, the sheep and goat inventory survey (GB census survey) and the agricultural survey for the period 2002-2015. Spatio-temporal trends of genotypes were assessed through the use of choropleth maps, spatial cluster and linear regression analyses. Multivariable mixed effect logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between the resistant or susceptible genotypes, and breeds, farm purpose, animal purpose, surveillance stream, country location and herd size. The results show a significant upward trend in the frequency of most resistant ARR alleles (1.15% per year, 95%CI: 0.76-1.53) and significant downward trend of most susceptible VRQ alleles (-0.40% per year; 95%CI: -0.69 to -0.10]. The trend continues after the termination of the national scrapie plan in 2009. Breeds such as Herdwick (OR = 0,26; 95%CI: 0.14-0.46), Shetland (OR = 0.22; 95%CI: 0.13-0.39), Swaledale (OR = 0.58; 95%CI: 0.47-0.73), Scottish blackface (OR = 0.54; 95%CI: 0.41-0.71) and Welsh Montain (OR: 0.59; 95%CI: 0.44-0.79) were identified with lower odds ratios of having the resistant ARR allele, while Beulah speckled face (OR = 1.58; 95%CI: 1.04-2.41), Jacob (OR = 2.91; 95%CI: 1.33-6.40), Lleyn (OR = 2.94; 95%CI: 1.28-6.74) and Suffolk (OR = 2.19; 95%CI: 1.69-2.84) had higher odds ratios of having the ARR allele. Other risk factors associated to presence of ARR allele were finishing farms (OR = 1.15; 95%CI: 1.06-1.24) and farms in Scotland (OR = 0,78; 95%CI: 0.73-0.83) and in Lowland grazing areas (OR = 1.53; 95%CI: 1.39-1.67). Factors associated with presence the VRQ genotype were farms in Scotland (OR = 0,85; 95%CI: 0.77-0.93) and breeds such as Herdwick (OR = 2.2; 95%CI: 1.08-4.97), Shetland (OR = 4.12; 95%CI: 2.20-7.73) and Sweledale (OR = 1.51; 95%CI: 1.10-2.09). For the most resistant genotype, two significant spatial clusters were identified: a high-risk cluster in the south-west of GB (RR = 1.51, p < 0.001) and a low-risk cluster in northern GB (RR = 0.65, p < 0.001). For the most susceptible genotypes, one significant high-risk cluster was identified in Wales (RR = 2.89 and p = 0.013). Surveillance for classical scrapie could be improved with a risk-based approach by focussing on those areas and farm types identified to have higher frequency of VRQ alleles and less frequency of ARR alleles. Scrapie control strategies could focus on developing breeding programs on farms with Shetland, Herdwick and Swaledale breeds.

Identification of amino acid variation in the prion protein associated with classical scrapie in Canadian dairy goats

BACKGROUND

A clear association of amino acid variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) with susceptibility and resistance to classical scrapie exists in sheep, but not in goats. In this study we examined DNA sequence variation in the PRNP of 149 animals from two scrapie-infected herds of Saanen dairy goats, and identified 6 non-synonymous variants in the coding region.

RESULTS

In the larger herd, all of the 54 scrapie-affected goats tested had at least one allele with the arginine (R) codon at position 211, with 52 being homozygous for that variant. No animal homozygous for the glutamine (Q) codon at 211 were affected and only two heterozygotes (R/Q) were affected. A weak association was found at position 146 and no significant associations were found with amino acid variation at the remaining four variant positions (142, 143, 222 and 240), however, the allelic variation was low. Similar patterns were observed in the second scrapie-affected herd.

CONCLUSION

We also evaluated previous studies on goat herds affected with scrapie and this relationship of R susceptibility and Q resistance at 211 was present independent of the genotypes at the other positions including 222. The fact that glutamine at 211 provides a significant protective property to scrapie irrespective of the other positions could be important for breeding strategies aimed at improving herd resistance to scrapie, while maintaining important productivity traits.

Genetic resistance to infections in sheep

This paper considers genetic resistance to infectious disease in sheep, with appropriate comparison with goats, and explores how such variation may be used to assist in disease control. Many studies have attempted to quantify the extent to which host animals differ genetically in their resistance to infection or in the disease side-effects of infection, using either recorded animal pedigrees or information from genetic markers to quantify the genetic variation. Across all livestock species, whenever studies are sufficiently well powered, then genetic variation in disease resistance is usually seen and such evidence is presented here for three infections or diseases of importance to sheep, namely mastitis, foot rot and scrapie. A further class of diseases of importance in most small ruminant production systems, gastrointestinal nematode infections, is outside the scope of this review. Existence of genetic variation implies the opportunity, at least in principle, to select animals for increased resistance, with such selection ideally used as part of an integrated control strategy. For each of the diseases under consideration, evidence for genetic variation is presented, the role of selection as an aid to disease control is outlined and possible side effects of selection in terms of effects in performance, effects on resistance to other diseases and potential parasite/pathogen coevolution risks are considered. In all cases, the conclusion is drawn that selection should work and it should be beneficial, with the main challenge being to define cost effective selection protocols that are attractive to sheep farmers.

The evolution of the prevalence of classical scrapie in sheep in Great Britain using surveillance data between 2005 and 2012

After the decline of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Great Britain (GB), scrapie remains the most prevalent animal Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) present in GB. A number of control measures have been implemented for classical scrapie, and since 2005 there has been a large reduction in the number of observed cases. The objective of this study is to estimate two measures of disease frequency using up to date surveillance data collected during and after the implementation of different control measures established since 2004, and breeding for resistance schemes that ran from 2001 until 2009. This would enable an assessment of the effectiveness of both the breeding for resistance programme and the compulsory eradication measures in reducing the prevalence of scrapie in GB. Evaluation of the sensitivity of the rapid post-mortem test for scrapie indicated that it detected scrapie in the last 25% of the incubation period. A back-calculation model was developed to estimate the prevalence of infection at animal and flock-level. The results of the model indicated a mean drop of infection prevalence of 31% each year, leading to a 90% drop in infection prevalence between 2005, with an estimate of 5737 infected sheep in GB in 2012. The risks of classical scrapie infection in animals with genotypes of National Scrapie Plan Types I-IV (all other genotypes), relative to Type V (all genotypes containing V136 R154 Q171 and not A136 R154 R171), were estimated to be: 0, 0.0008, 0.07, and 0.21 respectively. The model estimated a very low rate of reporting of clinical suspects and a large decline from 2007 of the probability of a sheep being reported as a clinical suspect. The model also estimated that the expected number of sheep holdings with classical scrapie in 2012 was 215 (95% confidence interval: 33-437), out of a total of approximately 72,000 sheep holdings in GB. Model estimates indicate that the prevalence in 2012 has dropped to 10% of that in 2005, showing the effectiveness of the control measures. It also shows a bias in the destination of infected animals, with the majority of infected animals being detected in the fallen stock surveillance stream, and an extremely low proportion of animals detected as clinical suspects; this is very important in terms of the design of surveillance schemes for classical scrapie.

Incidence of infection in Prnp ARR/ARR sheep following experimental inoculation with or natural exposure to classical scrapie

The prion protein gene (Prnp) is highly influential in determining risk and susceptibility of sheep exposed to classical scrapie. Sheep homozygous for alanine at codon 136 and arginine at codons 154 and 171 (ARR/ARR) of the Prnp gene are historically considered to be highly resistant to classical scrapie, although they form a significant fraction of cases of atypical scrapie. To date, experimental transmission of prions to ARR/ARR sheep has only been achieved with the BSE agent and mostly by the intracerebral route. We summarise here the results of six separate studies, in which 95 sheep of the ARR/ARR genotype were naturally exposed to (n = 18) or experimentally challenged with (n = 77) natural or experimental sources of classical scrapie by the oral, intra-intestinal, subcutaneous or intracerebral routes and allowed to survive for periods of up to 94 months post-infection. Only the intracerebral route resulted in disease and/or amplification of disease associated PrP (PrP^d), and only in two of 19 sheep that survived for longer than 36 months. Discriminatory immunohistochemistry and Western blot confirmed the scrapie, non-BSE signature of PrP^d in those two sheep. However, the neuropathological phenotype was different from any other scrapie (classical or atypical) or BSE source previously reported in sheep of any Prnp genotype. These studies confirm the widely held view that ARR/ARR sheep are highly resistant to classical scrapie infection, at least within their commercial lifespan. Moreover, within the constraints of the present studies (only two infected sheep), these results do not support the suggestion that atypical scrapie or BSE are generated by adaptation or mutation of classical scrapie in sheep of resistant ARR/ARR genotype.

Influence of polymorphisms in the prion protein gene on the pathogenesis and neuropathological phenotype of sheep scrapie after oral infection

The prion protein gene (Prnp) plays a crucial role in the susceptibility of sheep to scrapie in terms of attack rate and/or incubation period. However, the influence of Prnp on the pathogenesis of the disease, specifically the involvement of tissues of the lymphoreticular system (LRS), pathways of neuroinvasion and neuropathological phenotypes, remains controversial. This study reports the onset and progression of disease-associated prion protein (PrP(d)) accumulation in the LRS and nervous tissues of sheep of six different Prnp genotypes infected by oral administration of the same mixed scrapie brain homogenate. Sheep homozygous for glutamine (Q) at codon 171 of PrP, with either valine (V) or alanine (A) at codon 136 (i.e. VRQ/VRQ, VRQ/ARQ and ARQ/ARQ), showed early and consistent PrP(d) accumulation in LRS tissues of the pharynx and gut. In contrast, LRS involvement was minimal, inconsistent and occurred late in the incubation period in sheep heterozygous for arginine (R) at codon 171 (i.e. VRQ/ARR and ARQ/ARR). Despite this difference, all five groups were susceptible to infection and developed clinical disease, albeit with significantly different incubation periods (shortest in VRQ/VRQ and longest in ARQ/ARR sheep). The remaining group of ARR/ARR homozygous sheep did not show evidence of infection at the end of the experiment or at previous predetermined time points. As for LRS tissues, the sites of initial PrP(d) accumulation in the brain were determined immunohistochemically. These were the same in all susceptible sheep (except for ARR/ARR sheep), regardless of their Prnp genotype which, together with an early and consistent accumulation of PrP(d) in circumventricular organs and a late or inconsistent involvement of the enteric and autonomic nervous system and of the spinal cord, suggests neuroinvasion occurring via the blood. The neuropathological phenotype (PrP(d) profile in the central nervous system) of clinically affected sheep was similar in the three V136 carrier groups, but showed some differences in the two A136 homozygous groups, suggesting a codon 136-driven selection of different strains from the mixture contained in the inoculum. ARQ/ARR sheep showed an irregular distribution of brain PrP(d), contrasting with the more widespread distribution of the other four groups. The results indicate that (1) ARQ/ARR sheep are more susceptible to oral scrapie infection than would be predicted from incidence figures in natural disease, (2) amplification and accumulation of PrP(d) in LRS tissues is host genotype dependent, but does not necessarily have a marked effect on the outcome of the infection and (3) the neuropathological phenotype of scrapie is related to the host genotype, but possibly in combination with the infecting source.

A Bayesian framework to assess the potential for controlling classical scrapie in sheep flocks using a live diagnostic test

Current strategies to control classical scrapie remove animals at risk of scrapie rather than those known to be infected with the scrapie agent. Advances in diagnostic tests, however, suggest that a more targeted approach involving the application of a rapid live test may be feasible in future. Here we consider the use of two diagnostic tests: recto-anal mucosa-associated lymphatic tissue (RAMALT) biopsies; and a blood-based assay. To assess their impact we developed a stochastic age- and prion protein (PrP) genotype-structured model for the dynamics of scrapie within a sheep flock. Parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to facilitate integration of a number of disparate datasets and to allow parameter uncertainty to be incorporated in model predictions. In small flocks a control strategy based on removal of clinical cases was sufficient to control disease and more stringent measures (including the use of a live diagnostic test) did not significantly reduce outbreak size or duration. In medium or large flocks strategies in which a large proportion of animals are tested with either live diagnostic test significantly reduced outbreak size, but not always duration, compared with removal of clinical cases. However, the current Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS) significantly reduced outbreak size and duration compared with both removal of clinical cases and all strategies using a live diagnostic test. Accordingly, under the assumptions made in the present study there is little benefit from implementing a control strategy which makes use of a live diagnostic test.

Overexpression of chimaeric murine/ovine PrP (A136H154Q171) in transgenic mice facilitates transmission and differentiation of ruminant prions

Development of transgenic mouse models expressing heterologous prion protein (PrP) has facilitated and advanced in vivo studies of prion diseases affecting humans and animals. Here, novel transgenic mouse lines expressing a chimaeric murine/ovine (Mu/Ov) PrP transgene, including amino acid residues alanine, histidine and glutamine at ovine polymorphic codons 136, 154 and 171 (A136H154Q171), were generated to provide a means of assessing the susceptibility of the ovine AHQ allele to ruminant prion diseases in an in vivo model. Transmission studies showed that the highest level of transgene overexpression, in Tg(Mu/OvPrP(AHQ))EM16 (EM16) mice, conferred high susceptibility to ruminant prions. Highly efficient primary transmission of atypical scrapie from sheep was shown, irrespective of donor sheep PrP genotype, with mean incubation periods (IPs) of 154–178 days post-inoculation (p.i.), 100% disease penetrance and early Western blot detection of protease-resistant fragments (PrP(res)) of the disease-associated isoform, PrP(Sc), in EM16 brain from 110 days p.i. onwards. EM16 mice were also highly susceptible to classical scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), with mean IPs 320 and 246 days faster, respectively, than WT mice. Primary passage of atypical scrapie, classical scrapie and BSE showed that the PrP(res) profiles associated with disease in the natural host were faithfully maintained in EM16 mice, and were distinguishable based on molecular masses, antibody reactivities and glycoform percentages. Immunohistochemistry was used to confirm PrP(Sc) deposition in brain sections from terminal phase transmissible spongiform encephalopathy-challenged EM16 mice. The findings indicate that EM16 mice represent a suitable bioassay model for detection of atypical scrapie infectivity and offer the prospect of differentiation of ruminant prions.

The impact of the genotype on the prevalence of classical scrapie at population level

Total number and genotypes of animals in holdings selected for the genotype & cull option in the Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme (CSFS) in Great Britain were extracted from the National Scrapie Plan data warehouse. The association between various genotype-related measures and scrapie prevalence infection was tested using zero-inflated negative binomial models with the counts of positive cases as dependent variable, and country, number of flocks in the scheme, flock size, surveillance source and the following genotype-related measurements: the centered-log ratios (clr) oof the 15 genotypes, of the proportions of the 5 alleles at codons 136, 154 and 171, of the proportions of the 5 NSP types, and two flock-susceptibility risk indicators, as explanatory variables. A total of 319341 genotyped animals from 168 holdings were included in the analysis. An increased proportion of the ARR/ARR genotype corresponded to a decrease in the number of scrapie cases. ARR/AHQ, AHQ/VRQ, ARH/VRQ and ARQ/VRQ genotypes, NSP type V, ARH, ARQ, AHQ and VRQ alleles and the low and high-susceptibility risk indicators are all associated with an increase risk in the number of scrapie cases.

Regardless the management practices; the increased susceptibility that the non-ARR alleles confer on an individual could be extrapolated at the population level. Increasing prevalence of ARR allele reduces the overall risk of scrapie at population level. At genotype level, the VRQ/VRQ genotype, present a very low frequency in the study population, seems to play a residual effect in the overall risk of scrapie in a flock.

Scrapie prevalence in sheep of susceptible genotype is declining in a population subject to breeding for resistance

Background

Susceptibility of sheep to scrapie infection is known to be modulated by the PrP genotype of the animal. In the Netherlands an ambitious scrapie control programme was started in 1998, based on genetic selection of animals for breeding. From 2002 onwards EU regulations required intensive active scrapie surveillance as well as certain control measures in affected flocks.

Here we analyze the data on genotype frequencies and scrapie prevalence in the Dutch sheep population obtained from both surveillance and affected flocks, to identify temporal trends. We also estimate the genotype-specific relative risks to become a detected scrapie case.

Results

We find that the breeding programme has produced a steady increase in the level of genetic scrapie resistance in the Dutch sheep population. We also find that a significant decline in the prevalence of scrapie in tested animals has occurred a number of years after the start of the breeding programme. Most importantly, the estimated scrapie prevalence level per head of susceptible genotype is also declining significantly, indicating that selective breeding causes a population effect.

Conclusions

The Dutch scrapie control programme has produced a steady rise in genetic resistance levels in recent years. A recent decline in the scrapie prevalence per tested sheep of susceptible prion protein genotype indicates that selective breeding causes the desired population effect.

The role of mathematical modelling in understanding the epidemiology and control of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies: a review

To deal with the incompleteness of observations and disentangle the complexities of transmission much use has been made of mathematical modelling when investigating the epidemiology of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) and, in particular, scrapie. Importantly, these modelling approaches allow the incidence of clinical disease to be related to the underlying prevalence of infection, thereby overcoming one of the major difficulties when studying these diseases. Models have been used to investigate the epidemiology of scrapie within individual flocks and at a regional level; to assess the efficacy of different control strategies, especially selective breeding programmes based on prion protein (PrP) genotype; to interpret the results of scrapie surveillance; and to inform the design of surveillance programmes. Furthermore, mathematical modelling has played an important role when assessing the risk to human health posed by the possible presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in sheep. Here, we review the various approaches that have been taken when developing and analysing mathematical models for the epidemiology and control of sheep TSE and assess their impact on our understanding of these diseases. We also identify areas that require further work, discuss future challenges and identify data gaps.

Evidence for maternal transmission of scrapie in naturally affected flocks

It has been known for many years that the offspring of scrapie affected ewes are at increased risk of developing scrapie but whether this is simply the result of an increased genetic susceptibility or transmission of infection has always been unclear. To contribute to clarify this we analysed the data collected in a detailed study of scrapie occurrence in a number of naturally affected commercial sheep flocks in Great Britain (GB) to investigate the association between PrP genotype and parental scrapie status and the incidence of scrapie. Our analyses confirmed the strong association between PrP genotype and the incidence of scrapie found in previous studies and a low incidence of scrapie in animals carrying the ARR allele and a high risk in homozygous VRQ animals. However, we also demonstrate an increased incidence of scrapie in the offspring of scrapie affected ewes controlling for the confounding effect of PrP genotype, but no increased scrapie incidence in the offspring of scrapie affected sires. Our results suggest that some of the increased incidence of scrapie in the offspring of scrapie affected ewes is the result of transmission of infection from mother to offspring. Our results confirm that a breeding policy aimed at decreasing the genetic susceptibility of the population should decrease the incidence of scrapie and that removing the offspring of scrapie affected animals from affected flocks could contribute to the control of this disease.

In vitro amplification of prions from milk in the detection of subclinical infections

Prions can be amplified by serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) from the milk of a high proportion of apparently healthy, scrapie exposed sheep with PRNP genotypes not previously associated with high disease penetrance. These data strongly suggest the widespread presence of subclinical scrapie infections within scrapie-exposed flocks containing sheep with a range of susceptible PRNP genotypes. These data also lead to the hypothesis that similar subclinical disease states may be common for other animal and human prion diseases. Furthermore, the application of sPMCA to milk provides a method to detect such subclinical disease. Here, we describe the high level amplification of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) prions from both ovine and bovine origin, a methodology that will facilitate the detection of any prions secreted within bovine and ovine milk during subclinical and clinical BSE disease.

PrP genotype: a flock-level risk factor for scrapie?

Previous epidemiological studies of risk factors for classical scrapie at flock level have identified a variety of management and purchase related variables, along with increased flock size and, in some cases, breed effects. Although known as a risk factor at the individual animal level, PrP genotype frequencies at flock level have not yet been studied. In an unmatched case-control study, three measures of flock-level prion protein (PrP) frequency estimates were investigated with respect to the scrapie status of the flock in 293 British sheep flocks (195 control flocks and 98 case flocks). Flocks with positive frequencies (more than 0 per cent) of two genotypes (VRQ/VRQ and AHQ/VRQ), large frequencies (more than 10 per cent) of the ARR/VRQ genotype, and large frequencies (more than 5.2 per cent) of the VRQ allele were at increased odds of being affected with clinical classical scrapie. When adjusted for flock size, breed and sampling strategy the genotype and allele effects remained, except that for flocks with positive frequencies of VRQ/VRQ. The known effect of increased risk with increased flock size was confirmed. A measure of the flock PrP genotype frequency profile should thus be included in studies of risk factors for scrapie. It could also be integrated into risk-based surveillance strategies for identification of "at-risk-of scrapie" flocks.

The impact of sheep breed on the risk of classical scrapie

The risk of classical scrapie in sheep is associated with polymorphisms in the prion protein (PrP) gene. In recent years, large-scale selective breeding programmes for sheep at lower risk of disease have been undertaken across the European Union. We analysed large-scale datasets on scrapie and sheep demography to investigate additional effects of sheep breed on scrapie risk. There was evidence for variation between certain breeds in the scrapie risk of some PrP genotypes, which could be caused by innate breed differences or distinct scrapie strains circulating within them. While the PrP genotypes of cases are generally consistent across breeds, some exceptions provide evidence that scrapie strain may influence affected PrP genotypes to a greater extent than innate breed differences. There was a significant association between the breed-level incidence of scrapie and the frequency of susceptible PrP genotypes in breeds. Our results lend support to selective breeding programmes which aim to reduce the frequency of high-risk PrP genotypes with measures not varying by sheep breed.

Prions are secreted in milk from clinically normal scrapie-exposed sheep

The potential spread of prion infectivity in secreta is a crucial concern for prion disease transmission. Here, serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) allowed the detection of prions in milk from clinically affected animals as well as scrapie-exposed sheep at least 20 months before clinical onset of disease, irrespective of the immunohistochemical detection of protease-resistant PrP(Sc) within lymphoreticular and central nervous system tissues. These data indicate the secretion of prions within milk during the early stages of disease progression and a role for milk in prion transmission. Furthermore, the application of sPMCA to milk samples offers a noninvasive methodology to detect scrapie during preclinical/subclinical disease.

Identification of seven haplotypes of the caprine PrP gene at codons 127, 142, 154, 211, 222 and 240 in French Alpine and Saanen breeds and their association with classical scrapie

In sheep, susceptibility to scrapie is mainly influenced by polymorphisms of the PrP gene. In goats, there are to date few data related to scrapie susceptibility association with PrP gene polymorphisms. In this study, we first investigated PrP gene polymorphisms of the French Alpine and Saanen breeds. Based on PrP gene open reading frame sequencing of artificial insemination bucks (n=404), six encoding mutations were identified at codons 127, 142, 154, 211, 222 and 240. However, only seven haplotypes could be detected: four (GIH154RQS, GIRQ211QS, GIRRK222S and GIRRQP240) derived from the wild-type allele (G127I142R154R211Q222S240) by a single-codon mutation, and two (S127IRRQP240 and GM142RRQP240) by a double-codon mutation. A case–control study was then implemented in a highly affected Alpine and Saanen breed herd (90 cases/164 controls). Mutations at codon 142 (I/M), 154 (R/H), 211 (R/Q) and 222 (Q/K) were found to induce a significant degree of protection towards natural scrapie infection. Compared with the baseline homozygote wild-type genotype I142R154R211Q222/IRRQ goats, the odds of scrapie cases in IRQ211Q/IRRQ and IRRK222/IRRQ heterozygous animals were significantly lower [odds ratio (OR)=0.133, P<0.0001; and OR=0.048, P<0.0001, respectively]. The heterozygote M142RRQ/IRRQ genotype was only protective (OR=0.243, P=0.0186) in goats also PP240 homozygous at codon 240. However, mutated allele frequencies in French Alpine and Saanen breeds were low (0.5–18.5 %), which prevent us from assessing the influence of all the possible genotypes in natural exposure conditions.

Associations between lamb survival and prion protein genotype: analysis of data for ten sheep breeds in Great Britain

Background

Selective breeding programmes, based on prion protein (PrP) genotype, have been introduced throughout the European Union to reduce the risk of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). These programmes could have negative consequences on other important traits, such as fitness and production traits, if the PrP gene has pleiotropic effects or is in linkage disequilibrium with genes affecting these traits. This paper presents the results of an investigation into associations between lamb survival and PrP genotype in ten mainstream sheep breeds in Great Britain (GB). In addition, the reasons for lamb deaths were examined in order to identify any associations between these and PrP genotype.

Results

Survival times from birth to weaning were analysed for over 38000 lambs (2427 dead and 36096 live lambs) from 128 flocks using Cox proportional hazard models for each breed, including additive animal genetic effects. No significant associations between PrP genotype and lamb survival were identified, except in the Charollais breed for which there was a higher risk of mortality in lambs of the ARR/VRQ genotype compared with those of the ARR/ARR genotype. Significant effects of birth weight, litter size, sex, age of dam and year of birth on survival were also identified. For all breeds the reasons for death changed significantly with age; however, no significant associations between reason for death and PrP genotype were found for any of the breeds.

Conclusion

This study found no evidence to suggest that a selective breeding programme based on PrP genotype will have a detrimental effect on lamb survival. The only significant effect of PrP genotype identified was likely to be of little consequence because an increased risk of mortality was associated with a genotype that is selected against in current breeding strategies.

Epidemiological characteristics of classical scrapie outbreaks in 30 sheep flocks in the United Kingdom

Background

Most previous analyses of scrapie outbreaks have focused on flocks run by research institutes, which may not reflect the field situation. Within this study, we attempt to rectify this deficit by describing the epidemiological characteristics of 30 sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, and by exploring possible underlying causes of variation in the characteristics between flocks, including flock-level prion protein (PrP) genotype profile. In total, the study involved PrP genotype data for nearly 8600 animals and over 400 scrapie cases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We found that most scrapie cases were restricted to just two PrP genotypes (ARQ/VRQ and VRQ/VRQ), though two flocks had markedly different affected genotypes, despite having similar underlying genotype profiles to other flocks of the same breed; we identified differences amongst flocks in the age of cases of certain PrP genotypes; we found that the age-at-onset of clinical signs depended on peak incidence and flock type; we found evidence that purchasing infected animals is an important means of introducing scrapie to a flock; we found some evidence that flock-level PrP genotype profile and flock size account for variation in outbreak characteristics; identified seasonality in cases associated with lambing time in certain flocks; and we identified one case that was homozygous for phenylalanine at codon 141, a polymorphism associated with a very high risk of atypical scrapie, and 28 cases that were heterozygous at this codon.

Conclusions/Significance

This paper presents the largest study to date on commercially-run sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, involving 30 study flocks, more than 400 scrapie cases and over 8500 PrP genotypes. We show that some of the observed variation in epidemiological characteristics between farms is related to differences in their PrP genotype profile; although much remains unexplained and may instead be attributed to the stochastic nature of scrapie dynamics.

Prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie in Great Britain: integrating multiple sources of surveillance data for 2002

Estimates for the prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie are essential for assessing the efficacy of control strategies that have been implemented in Great Britain (GB). Here a back-calculation approach was used to estimate the prevalence in the GB national flock by integrating data on reported cases and the results of abattoir and fallen stock surveys for 2002. Prevalence estimates ranged from 0.33 to 2.06%, depending on the estimates used for the frequencies of prion protein (PrP) genotypes in the national flock and the stage of incubation at which the diagnostic tests used are able to detect infected animals. The risk of infection was found to be higher than that of clinical disease, especially in those PrP genotypes that have a later age at onset of clinical disease. Moreover, results suggest that a high proportion (more than 55%) of infected animals surviving to disease onset die on farm before clinical signs become apparent, which helps account for the high observed prevalence in the fallen stock compared with the abattoir survey. The analyses indicated that attention needs to be given to identifying the stage of incubation at which diagnostic tests are able to detect infected animals and obtaining better demographic data for the GB national flock.

A descriptive study of the prevalence of atypical and classical scrapie in sheep in 20 European countries

Background

The development of active surveillance programmes for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies of small ruminants across Europe has led to the recent identification of a previously undetected form of ovine prion disease, 'atypical' scrapie. Knowledge of the epidemiology of this disease is still limited, as is whether it represents a risk for animal and/or public health.

The detection of atypical scrapie has been related to the use of only some of the EU agreed rapid tests. Information about the rapid tests used is not, as yet, available from public reports on the surveillance of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants. We collected detailed results of active surveillance from European countries to estimate and to compare the prevalence of atypical scrapie and classical scrapie in sheep for each country stratified by each surveillance stream; healthy slaughtered and found dead adult sheep.

Results

From the 20 participating countries, it appeared that atypical scrapie was detected in Europe wherever the conditions necessary for its diagnosis were present. In most countries, atypical scrapie and classical scrapie occurred at low prevalence level. The classical scrapie prevalence estimates were more variable than those for atypical scrapie, which appeared remarkably homogeneous across countries, surveillance streams and calendar years of surveillance. Differences were observed in the age and genotype of atypical scrapie and classical scrapie cases that are consistent with previous published findings.

Conclusion

This work suggests that atypical scrapie is not rare compared to classical scrapie. The homogeneity of its prevalence, whatever the country, stream of surveillance or year of detection, contrasts with the epidemiological pattern of classical scrapie. This suggests that the aetiology of atypical scrapie differs from that of classical scrapie.

No temporal trends in the prevalence of atypical scrapie in British sheep, 2002-2006

BACKGROUND

So-called atypical scrapie was first identified in Great Britain (GB) in 2002 following the introduction of wide-scale scrapie surveillance. In particular, abattoir and fallen stock surveys have been carried out in GB since 2002, with a total of 147 atypical positives identified by the end of 2006. The results of these surveys provide data with which to assess temporal trends in the prevalence of atypical scrapie in sheep in Great Britain between 2002 and 2006.

RESULTS

Using the results of abattoir and fallen stock surveys, the prevalence of atypical scrapie (percentage of samples positive) was estimated. The prevalence in the abattoir and fallen stock surveys, for all years combined, was 0.09% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08%-0.11%) and 0.07% (95% CI: 0.05%-0.11%), respectively. There were no significant temporal trends in either survey. Comparing the surveys' results, there were no significant differences in annual prevalence or the prevalence within PrP genotypes. For the abattoir survey, the PrP genotype with the highest prevalence was AHQ/AHQ, which was significantly higher than all other genotypes, except ARR/AHQ, AHQ/ARH and ARH/ARQ.

CONCLUSION

The estimated prevalence of atypical scrapie was similar in both the abattoir and fallen stock surveys. Our results indicate there was no significant temporal trend in prevalence, adding to evidence that this atypical form of scrapie may be a sporadic condition or, if it is infectious, that the force of infection is very low.

PrP genetics in ruminant transmissible spongiform encephalopathies

Scrapie, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), and chronic wasting disease (CWD) are prion diseases in ruminants with considerable impact on animal health and welfare. They can also pose a risk to human health and control is therefore an important issue. Prion protein (PrP) genetics may be used to control and eventually eradicate animal prion diseases. The PrP gene in sheep and other representatives of the order Artiodactyles has many polymorphisms of which several are crucial determinants of susceptibility to prion diseases, also known as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE). This review will present the current understanding of PrP genetics in ruminants highlighting similarity and difference between the species in the context of TSE.

Approaches to investigating transmission of spongiform encephalopathies in domestic animals using BSE as an example

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy was a novel spongiform encephalopathy, in an hitherto unaffected species, that had characteristics of a point source epidemic, with an agent that could have been incorporated into a wide variety of feedstuffs and iatrogenically administered to naïve populations, and there was early evidence that it was not restricted to bovines. It was vital to establish, albeit experimentally, which other species might be affected, and whether the epidemic could be maintained by natural transmission, if the source was removed. In contrast, scrapie has been endemic throughout Great Britain for centuries, is maintained naturally (even if we don't know exactly how) and has a known host range. The principles, process and integration of evidence from different types of studies, however, are similar for both of these transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) and can be applied to any emerging or suspected spongiform encephalopathy. This review discusses the experimental approaches used to determine TSE transmissibility and infectivity and how they relate to natural disease and control measures.

Progress and limits of PrP gene selection policy

Classical scrapie has proved to be a notoriously difficult disease to control due to a poor understanding of its natural history. The recognition of disease risk linkage to PrP genotype has offered the prospect of a disease control strategy, viz. genotyping and selective breeding, novel to veterinary medicine when first considered in the 1990s. The UK Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee recommended the exploitation of this approach in a voluntary, national programme to control classical scrapie and protect the public against food-borne exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy, should the national flock have been exposed via contaminated feed. The National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain was launched in 2001 and uptake has been widespread throughout the purebreeding sector of the sheep industry, with membership peaking at over 12 000 flocks in 2006. A total of 700 000 rams from 90 breeds have been genotyped. A comparison of ram lambs born in 2002 with those in 2006 shows evident changes in PrP genotype frequencies which are predicted to be associated with a reduction in disease risk. Various concerns have been raised regarding possible unintended consequences of widespread selection on PrP genotype, including impacts on other performance traits and possible effects on inbreeding and genetic diversity. To date, these concerns appear to be unfounded, as no consistent associations have been found with performance traits, nor are there likely to be any detectable impacts on inbreeding in mainstream breeds. Currently, semen banks have been implemented in Great Britain to store samples from animals of all common PrP genotypes, should these genotypes be required in the future. Various strategies to minimise future disease risks are discussed in the paper.

Quantifying the risk from ovine BSE and the impact of control strategies

Although no naturally infected sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has ever been discovered, it remains possible that BSE once infected the UK sheep population, has been transmitted between sheep, and is still present today. We constructed a mathematical model to assess the current maximum theoretical exposure to consumers from BSE-infected ovine material and to estimate the risk reduction that could be achieved by abattoir-based control options if BSE-infected sheep were ever found in the national flock. We predict that, if present, the exposure to consumers from a single BSE-infected sheep would be high: one sheep, close to the end of its incubation period, is likely to contribute 10-1000 times more infectious material than a fully infectious cow. Furthermore, 30% of this exposure comes from infectivity residing in lymphatic and peripheral tissue that cannot be completely removed from a carcass. We are 95% confident that throughout Great Britain, no more than four sheep flocks currently harbour an ongoing BSE epidemic. However, since the exposure from a single infected sheep is high, the annual human exposure from four 'typical' BSE-infected flocks could be considerable. Small reductions in exposure could be achieved by strategies based on tissue testing, a 12-month age restriction or expanded definitions of high-risk tissues. A six-month age restriction is likely to be more effective and genotype-based strategies the most effective.

The importance of the PrP genotype in active surveillance for ovine scrapie

Surveillance activities for ovine scrapie have expanded in the 21st century, following concerns about the potential for a hidden epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in European sheep populations. Large-scale surveys have been used to estimate the prevalence of scrapie infection. In this study we analyse data from the surveys in Great Britain between 2002 and 2004. When we estimate genotype-specific prevalences for each of the two screening tests used a difference is observed. One test underestimates the number of positive cases in genotypes classically considered to be at a low relative risk of developing clinical disease (ARR- and AHQ-containing genotypes). By comparison, the other test underestimates the number of positive cases in genotypes classically considered to be at an increased relative risk of developing clinical disease (VRQ-containing genotypes). These findings have implications for surveillance, disease control, and diagnostic test evaluation.

Advanced survival models for risk-factor analysis in scrapie

Because of the confounding effects of long incubation duration and flock management, accurate epidemiological studies of scrapie outbreaks are difficult to carry out. In this study, 641 Manech red-faced sheep from six scrapie-affected field flocks in Pyrénées Atlantiques, France, were monitored for clinical scrapie over a 6–9 year period. Over this period, 170 scrapie clinical cases were recorded and half of the culled animals were submitted for post-mortem transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diagnosis to assess their infectious status. Collected data were analysed using a ‘mixture cure model’ approach, which allowed for the discriminating effect of PrP genotype and flock origin on incidence and incubation period. Simulations were performed to evaluate the applicability of such a statistical model to the collected data. As expected, ARR heterozygote sheep were less at risk of becoming infected than ARQ/ARQ individuals and had a greater age at clinical onset. Conversely, when compared with ARQ/ARQ, the VRQ haplotype was associated with an increased infection risk, but not a shorter incubation period. Considering the flock effect, we observed that a high incidence rate was not associated with shorter incubation periods and that the incubation period could be significantly different in flocks harbouring similar infection risks. These results strongly support the conclusion that other parameters, such as the nature of the agent or flock management, could interfere with epidemiological dynamics of the infection in scrapie-affected flocks.

Flock-level risk factors for scrapie in Great Britain: analysis of a 2002 anonymous postal survey

Background

In November 2002, an anonymous postal survey of sheep farmers in Great Britain (GB) was conducted to identify factors associated with the flock-level occurrence of scrapie. This survey was undertaken to update an earlier postal survey in 1998, and was the first occasion in which a large-scale postal survey had been repeated.

Results

The results of the 2002 survey indicated that scrapie was more likely to occur in certain geographic regions; in purebred compared to commercial flocks; in larger flocks; in flocks which lambed in group pens compared to those which lambed in individual pens; in flocks which always lambed in the same location compared to those which did not; and in farms which kept certain breeds of sheep. In addition to these factors, the likelihood of the disease occurring in homebred animals was higher in flocks which bred a greater proportion of replacement animals or which bought-in lambs. Finally, within-flock transmission following exposure was more likely to occur in hill flocks compared to other farm types; in flocks which bred a greater proportion of replacement animals; and in farms which kept a certain crossbreed of ewe.

Conclusion

The risk factors identified from the 1998 and 2002 anonymous postal surveys in Great Britain were similar. However, differences between the surveys were identified in the influence of region and of purchasing behaviour on the risk of scrapie. These differences are most likely a consequence of changes in farmer awareness and the impact of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic, respectively.

The time-course of a scrapie outbreak

Background

Because the incubation period of scrapie has a strong host genetic component and a dose-response relationship, it is possible that changes will occur during an outbreak, especially in the genotypes of cases, age-at-onset of disease and, perhaps, the clinical signs displayed. We investigated these factors for a large outbreak of natural scrapie, which yielded sufficient data to detect temporal trends.

Results

Cases occurred mostly in two genotypes, VRQ/VRQ and VRQ/ARQ, with those early in the outbreak more likely to be of the VRQ/VRQ genotype. As the epidemic progressed, the age-at-onset of disease increased, which reflected changes in the genotypes of cases rather than changes in the age-at-onset within genotypes. Clinical signs of cases changed over the course of the outbreak. As the epidemic progressed VRQ/VRQ and VRQ/ARQ sheep were more likely to be reported with behavioural changes, while VRQ/VRQ sheep only were less likely to be reported with loss of condition.

Conclusion

This study of one of the largest scrapie outbreaks in the UK allowed investigation of the effect of PrP genotype on other epidemiological parameters. Our analysis indicated that, although age-at-onset and clinical signs changed over time, the observed changes were largely, but not exclusively, driven by the time course of the PrP genotypes of cases.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. I. Assessing the impact on prion protein (PrP) genotype frequencies

From April 2005, member states of the European Union were required to implement a compulsory breeding programme for resistance to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in sheep as part of measures to eradicate TSEs from national flocks. In this paper, we assessed the impact of four different breeding strategies on prion protein (PrP) genotype frequencies using a mathematical model which describes in detail gene flow in the British sheep flock. These strategies ranged from the minimum requirements laid down in by EU legislation to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP) ram genotyping scheme. All four strategies were predicted to substantially reduce the frequency of the VRQ allele, which is associated with the highest risk of scrapie, although schemes with more stringent requirements produced a larger reduction. However, there were marked differences in the impact of the strategies on the frequency of other PrP alleles. In particular, restrictions beyond those required by EU legislation were necessary to change the frequency of other PrP alleles substantially. Consequently, a breeding programme which aims to reduce the risk to human health by reducing the frequency of the ARQ allele (associated with the highest risk of BSE in sheep) must place restrictions on ARQ-bearing animals. Similarly, a programme which seeks to increase the frequency of the ARR allele (associated with the lowest risk of TSE) must favour ARR-bearing animals.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. II. Assessing the impact on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie

By establishing a breeding programme for transmissible spongiform encephalopathie (TSE) resistance, there are plans to eradicate sheep TSEs from member states of the European Union (EU). In this paper, we used a simple age- and genotype-structured model to assess the impact of four breeding strategies on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie in the British sheep flock. The strategies ranged from the minimum EU requirements to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP). All four strategies were predicted to reduce the prevalence and incidence of disease, though there was likely to be a delay of several years between the implementation of a breeding programme and the reduction in incidence. There were differences in the efficacy of the strategies, with the most stringent resulting in the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence. However, the magnitude of the differences was not great, largely because all four strategies eliminated the VRQ allele, which is associated with a markedly higher risk of disease than any of the other alleles. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the model results were robust to selection bias when estimating the risk of infection; and that the efficacy of a breeding programme was unlikely to be compromised, unless the risk of infection is substantially underestimated by data on clinical disease.

Simulation of the options for a national control programme to eradicate scrapie from Great Britain

Because of the risk to public health posed by the potential presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in sheep, there are plans to eradicate transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) from the British sheep population. We used a mathematical model for the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks to assess the efficacy of five control strategies at eradicating the infection from the national flock. These range from ram-genotyping schemes through whole-flock genotyping with selective culling to whole-flock slaughter. The impact of control was considered under three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie in GB: two in which scrapie is ultimately eliminated (with different median extinction times) and one in which scrapie remains endemic. Results suggested that it is feasible to eradicate scrapie from the British sheep flock, but that any national control programme will take decades to eliminate the disease and be costly. The most-effective strategy, measured in terms of the probability of eradication and time taken for eradication, was predicted to be whole-flock culling, which was effective under all three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie. Strategies involving whole-flock genotyping with selective culling were also effective, though they were predicted to take longer to eradicate scrapie than whole-flock culling. Ram-genotyping schemes were effective in some instances, but not for the scenario where scrapie remained endemic in the national flock. At low levels of reporting of clinical disease (< 20%) the probability of eradication within 100 years was predicted to be < 100% and, consequently, low levels of reporting could compromise the effectiveness of a control programme. Moreover, the predicted time taken to eradicate scrapie would increase markedly if the reporting compliance decreased.