Vector capability of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes for California encephalitis and dengue viruses at various temperatures

Temperature and transmission of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses: A systematic review of experimental studies on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Mosquito-borne viruses are leading causes of morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. In recent years, modelling studies have shown that climate change strongly influences vector-borne disease transmission, particularly rising temperatures. As a result, the risk of epidemics has increased, posing a significant public health risk. This review aims to summarize all published laboratory experimental studies carried out over the years to determine the impact of temperature on the transmission of arboviruses by the mosquito vector. Given their high public health importance, we focus on dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, which are transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Following PRISMA guidelines, 34 papers were included in this systematic review. Most studies found that increasing temperatures result in higher rates of infection, dissemination, and transmission of these viruses in mosquitoes, although several studies had differing findings. Overall, the studies reviewed here suggest that rising temperatures due to climate change would alter the vector competence of mosquitoes to increase epidemic risk, but that some critical research gaps remain.

California Serogroup Viruses in a Changing Canadian Arctic: A Review

The Arctic is warming at four times the global rate, changing the diversity, activity and distribution of vectors and associated pathogens. While the Arctic is not often considered a hotbed of vector-borne diseases, Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) and Snowshoe Hare virus (SSHV) are mosquito-borne zoonotic viruses of the California serogroup endemic to the Canadian North. The viruses are maintained by transovarial transmission in vectors and circulate among vertebrate hosts, both of which are not well characterized in Arctic regions. While most human infections are subclinical or mild, serious cases occur, and both JCV and SSHV have recently been identified as leading causes of arbovirus-associated neurological diseases in North America. Consequently, both viruses are currently recognised as neglected and emerging viruses of public health concern. This review aims to summarise previous findings in the region regarding the enzootic transmission cycle of both viruses. We identify key gaps and approaches needed to critically evaluate, detect, and model the effects of climate change on these uniquely northern viruses. Based on limited data, we predict that (1) these northern adapted viruses will increase their range northwards, but not lose range at their southern limits, (2) undergo more rapid amplification and amplified transmission in endemic regions for longer vector-biting seasons, (3) take advantage of northward shifts of hosts and vectors, and (4) increase bite rates following an increase in the availability of breeding sites, along with phenological synchrony between the reproduction cycle of theorized reservoirs (such as caribou calving) and mosquito emergence.

Current Knowledge and Ecological and Human Impact Variables Involved in the Distribution of the Dengue Virus by Bats in the Americas

Dengue fever, caused by the dengue virus (DENV), is one of the most important reemerging viral diseases transmitted by arthropods worldwide. DENV is maintained in nature in two transmission cycles: urban and sylvatic. The latter has only been recorded in Africa and Asia and involves nonhuman primates as natural hosts, although it has been suggested that other mammals may play a secondary role as potential reservoir host, including bats. The objective of this article is to review the current state of knowledge about DENV-positive bats in the Americas and to determine what ecological and human impact variables could favor DENV infection in bats. We performed a search of published studies on natural and experimental DENV infection in bats. From 1952 to 2019, 14 studies have been carried out (71.4% in the last decade) examining DENV infection in bats in seven countries of the Americas. DENV infection was examined in 1884 bats of 63 species and DENV was detected in 19 of these species. Clench's model estimated that more than 75 species could be carriers of DENV; therefore, considering that at least 350 species of bats are distributed in the Americas, to detect 95% of the DENV-bearing species, it would be necessary to examine about 10,206 bats of ∼287 species that have not been analyzed until 2019. The species with the highest number of positive cases were Molossus sinaloae and Artibeus jamaicensis. Species, colony size, mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, human population size, and bat collection site (site inhabited by humans, vegetation cover, and caves) contributed to explain the variation in DENV detection in bats in the Americas. These results provide evidence on the exposure of bats to DENV in different geographic areas of the Americas and a bat sylvatic transmission cycle is very likely to be occurring, where bats may be either accidental hosts, dead-end hosts, or potential reservoir hosts for DENV.

Temporal Trend of Aedes albopictus in Local Urban Parks of the Republic of Korea

Aedes albopictus (Skuse) was first reported in the Republic of Korea in 1941 (Suwon, Gyeonggi Province). Recently, a mosquito-monitoring program was established in response to the potential development of autochthonous infections of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, to identify the regional characteristics of Ae. albopictus in Suwon. Daily collections of adult mosquitoes were conducted using Blackhole UV-LED traps and BG-Sentinel traps baited with octenol, carbon dioxide or both at five sites in Suwon (Sungkyunkwan University, Manseok, Seoho, Olympic, and Jungang parks) from 1 July to 1 November 2016. Based on the ecological cycle of mosquitoes, an estimated association between the daily mean temperatures [2 wk prior to the collection date (lag 2 wk)] and relative population abundance were developed using a generalized linear model. The overall proportion of female mosquitoes collected from all traps was 88.3%. Higher female trap indices were observed for mosquitoes collected at BG-Sentinel traps. Additionally, the BG-sentinel trap was more effective collecting Ae. albopictus. Culex pipiens (Coquillett) was the most frequently collected mosquito using UV-LED traps, followed by Ae. vexans nipponii (Theobald), Ochlerotatus koreicus (Edwards), Cx. inatomi (Kamimura and Wada), and members of the Anopheles Hyrcanus Group. Within a certain temperature range, daily mean temperatures 2 wk prior to the collection period was significantly associated with a maximum abundance of Ae. albopictus (P < 0.05) at 26.2°C (95% confidence interval: 24.3-29.4°C). The BG-Sentinel trap is an effective trap for monitoring relative population abundance of Ae. albopictus, and trap catches are significantly correlated with daily mean temperatures.

Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue

Using extensive data on dengue fever and mosquito density, we demonstrate that local weather conditions, through their impact on the variation of mosquito abundance, are a driver of dengue dynamics in China. We believe that this mechanism can be applied to explain dengue dynamics in other places as well. We furthermore conjecture that our integrative approach would be applicable to other vector-borne diseases, such as Zika, malaria, and chikungunya.

Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease with increasing geographic extent and human incidence. Although the climate–epidemic association and outbreak risks have been assessed using both statistical and mathematical models, local mosquito population dynamics have not been incorporated in a unified predictive framework. Here, we use mosquito surveillance data from 2005 to 2015 in China to integrate a generalized additive model of mosquito dynamics with a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) compartmental model of viral transmission to establish a predictive model linking climate and seasonal dengue risk. The findings illustrate that spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue are predictable from the local vector dynamics, which in turn, can be predicted by climate conditions. On the basis of the similar epidemiology and transmission cycles, we believe that this integrated approach and the finer mosquito surveillance data provide a framework that can be extended to predict outbreak risk of other mosquito-borne diseases as well as project dengue risk maps for future climate scenarios.

Temperature dependent transmission potential model for chikungunya in India

Chikungunya is a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical countries of the world. During 2016, the National Capital Territory of Delhi experienced an epidemic caused by chikungunya virus with >12,000 cases. Similarly, other parts of India also reported a large number of chikungunya cases, highest incidence rate was observed during 2016 in comparison with last 10 years of epidemiological data. In the present study we exploited R₀ mathematical model to understand the transmission risk of chikungunya virus which is transmitted by Aedes vectors. This mechanistic transmission model is climate driven and it predicts how the probability and transmission risk of chikungunya occurs in India. The gridded temperature data from 1948 to 2016 shows that the mean temperatures are gradually increasing in South India from 1982 to 2016 when compared with data of 1948-1981 time scale. During 1982-2016 period many states have reported gradual increase in risk of chikungunya transmission when compared with the 1948-1981 period. The highest transmission risk of chikungunya in India due to favourable ecoclimatic conditions, increasing temperature leads to low extrinsic incubation period, mortality rates and high biting rate were predicted for the year 2016. The epidemics in 2010 and 2016 are also strongly connected to El Nino conditions which favours transmission of chikungunya in India. The study shows that transmission of chikungunya occurs between 20 and 34 °C but the peak transmission occurs at 29 °C. The infections of chikungunya in India are due to availability of vectors and optimum temperature conditions influence chikungunya transmission faster in India. This climate based empirical model helps the public health authorities to assess the risk of chikungunya and one can implement necessary control measures before onset of disease outbreak.

Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Thermal biology predicts that vector-borne disease transmission peaks at intermediate temperatures and declines at high and low temperatures. However, thermal optima and limits remain unknown for most vector-borne pathogens. We built a mechanistic model for the thermal response of Ross River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Australia, Pacific Islands, and potentially at risk of emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks at moderate temperatures (26.4°C) and declines to zero at thermal limits (17.0 and 31.5°C). The model accurately predicts that transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics but seasonal in temperate areas, resulting in the nationwide seasonal peak in human cases. Climate warming will likely increase transmission in temperate areas (where most Australians live) but decrease transmission in tropical areas where mean temperatures are already near the thermal optimum. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear models for inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting responses to climate change.

Mosquitoes cannot control their body temperature, so their survival and performance depend on the temperature where they live. As a result, outside temperatures can also affect the spread of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. This has left scientists wondering how climate change may affect the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Predicting the effects of climate change on such diseases is tricky, because many interacting factors, including temperatures and rainfall, affect mosquito populations. Also, rising temperatures do not always have a positive effect on mosquitoes – they may help mosquitoes initially, but it can get too warm even for these animals.

Climate change could affect the Ross River virus, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia. The virus infects 2,000 to 9,000 people each year and can cause long-term joint pain and disability. Currently, the virus spreads year-round in tropical, northern Australia and seasonally in temperate, southern Australia. Large outbreaks have occurred outside of Australia, and scientists are worried it could spread worldwide.

Now, Shocket et al. have built a model that predicts how the spread of Ross River virus changes with temperature. Shocket et al. used data from laboratory experiments that measured mosquito and virus performance across a broad range of temperatures. The experiments showed that ~26°C (80°F) is the optimal temperature for mosquitoes to spread the Ross River virus. Temperatures below 17°C (63°F) and above 32°C (89°F) hamper the spread of the virus. These temperature ranges match the current disease patterns in Australia where human cases peak in March. This is two months after the country’s average temperature reaches the optimal level and about how long it takes mosquito populations to grow, infect people, and for symptoms to develop.

Because northern Australia is already near the optimal temperature for mosquitos to spread the Ross River virus, any climate warming should decrease transmission there. But warming temperatures could increase the disease’s transmission in the southern part of the country, where most people live. The model Shocket et al. created may help the Australian government and mosquito control agencies better plan for the future.

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24–25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25–35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal variation in temperature, the model provides a baseline for mechanistically understanding environmental suitability for virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Overlaying the impact of human activities and socioeconomic factors onto this mechanistic temperature-dependent framework is critical for understanding likelihood and magnitude of outbreaks.

Mosquito-borne viruses like dengue, Zika, and chikungunya have recently caused large epidemics that are partly driven by temperature. Using a mathematical model built from laboratory experimental data for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and dengue virus, we examine the impact of variation in seasonal temperature regimes on epidemic size and duration. At constant temperatures, both low and high temperatures (20°C and 35°C) produce small epidemics, while intermediate temperatures like 25°C and 30°C produce much larger epidemics. In seasonally varying temperature environments, epidemics peak more rapidly at higher starting temperatures, while intermediate starting temperatures produce the largest epidemics. Seasonal mean temperatures of 25–35°C are most suitable for large epidemics when seasonality is low, but in more variable seasonal environments epidemic suitability peaks at lower annual average temperatures. Tropical and sub-tropical cities have the highest temperature suitability for epidemics, but more temperate cities with high seasonal variation also have the potential for very large epidemics.

The impact of temperature and Wolbachia infection on vector competence of potential dengue vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the transmission of dengue virus serotype 1 in southern Taiwan

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the impact of temperature and Wolbachia infection on vector competence of the local Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus populations of southern Taiwan in the laboratory.

RESULTS

After oral infection with dengue serotype 1 virus (DENV-1), female mosquitoes were incubated at temperatures of 10, 16, 22, 28 and 34 °C. Subsequently, salivary gland, head, and thorax-abdomen samples were analyzed for their virus titer at 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 days post-infection (dpi) by real-time RT-PCR. The results showed that Ae. aegypti survived significantly longer and that dengue viral genome levels in the thorax-abdomen (10^{3.25 ± 0.53}-10^{4.09 ± 0.71} PFU equivalents/ml) and salivary gland samples (10^{2.67 ± 0.33}-10^{3.89 ± 0.58} PFU equivalents/ml) were significantly higher at high temperature (28-34 °C). The survival of Ae. albopictus was significantly better at 16 or 28 °C, but the virus titers from thorax-abdomen (10^0.70-10^{2.39 ± 1.31} PFU equivalents/ml) and salivary gland samples (10^{0.12 ± 0.05}-10^{1.51 ± 0.31} PFU equivalents/ml) were significantly higher at 22-28 °C. Within viable temperature ranges, the viruses were detectable after 10 dpi in salivary glands and head tissues in Ae. aegypti and after 5-10 dpi in Ae. albopictus. Vector competence was measured in Ae. albopictus with and without Wolbachia at 28 °C. Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes survived significantly better and carried lower virus titers than Wolbachia-free mosquitoes. Wolbachia coinfections (92.8-97.2%) with wAlbA and wAlbB strains were commonly found in a wild population of Ae. albopictus.

CONCLUSIONS

In southern Taiwan, Ae. aegypti is the main vector of dengue and Ae. albopictus has a non-significant role in the transmission of dengue virus due to the high prevalence of Wolbachia infection in the local mosquito population of southern Taiwan.

Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters

For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low EIP in Kerala (8–15 days at 30.8 and 23.4 °C) and a generally slower/high EIP in Punjab (5.6–96.5 days at 35 and 0 °C) were simulated with daily temperatures. EIPs were calculated for different seasons, and Kerala showed the lowest EIP during the monsoon period. In addition, a significant association between dengue cases and precipitation was also observed. The results suggest that temperature is important in virus development in different climatic regions and may be useful in understanding spatio-temporal variations in dengue risk. Climate-based disease forecasting models in India should be refined and tailored for different climatic zones, instead of use of a standard model.

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.

Zika and chikungunya: mosquito-borne viruses in a changing world

The reemergence and growing burden of mosquito-borne virus infections have incited public fear and growing research efforts to understand the mechanisms of infection-associated health outcomes and to provide better approaches for mosquito vector control. While efforts to develop therapeutics, vaccines, and novel genetic mosquito-control technologies are underway, many important underlying ecological questions remain that could significantly enhance our understanding and ability to predict and prevent transmission. Here, we review the current knowledge about the transmission ecology of two recent arbovirus invaders, the chikungunya and Zika viruses. We introduce the viruses and mosquito vectors, highlighting viral biology, historical routes of transmission, and viral mechanisms facilitating rapid global invasion. In addition, we review factors contributing to vector global invasiveness and transmission efficiency. We conclude with a discussion of how human-induced biotic and abiotic environmental changes facilitate mosquito-borne virus transmission, emphasizing critical gaps in understanding. These knowledge gaps are tremendous; much of our data on basic mosquito ecology in the field predate 1960, and the mosquitoes themselves, as well as the world they live in, have substantially changed. A concerted investment in understanding the basic ecology of these vectors, which serve as the main drivers of pathogen transmission in both wildlife and human populations, is now more important than ever.

Transcriptome analysis of Aedes aegypti in response to mono-infections and co-infections of dengue virus-2 and chikungunya virus

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Dengue virus (DENV) spread via the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. Both these viruses exist as co-infections in the host as well as the vector and are known to exploit their cellular machinery for their replication. While there are studies reporting the changes in Aedes transcriptome when infected with DENV and CHIKV individually, the effect both these viruses have on the mosquitoes when present as co-infections is not clearly understood. In the present study, we infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with DENV and CHIKV individually and as co-infection through nanoinjections. We performed high throughput RNA sequencing of the infected Aedes aegypti to understand the changes in the Aedes transcriptome during the early stages of infection, i.e., 24 h post infection and compared the transcriptome profiles during DENV and CHIKV mono-infections with that of co-infections. We identified 190 significantly regulated genes identified in CHIKV infected library, 37 genes from DENV library and 100 genes from co-infected library and they were classified into different pathways. Our study reveal that distinct pathways and transcripts are being regulated during the three types of infection states in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.

Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015

Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R0 mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two key mosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015-2016 El Niño climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season.

Temperature-dependent effects on the replication and transmission of arthropod-borne viruses in their insect hosts

The transmissibility of vector borne viruses can be affected by a combination of factors, both extrinsic (climatic changes, temperature, urbanization, among others) and intrinsic (genetics, life span, immunity, among others). Temperature is of particular importance since the insect vectors of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are ectothermic and acutely susceptible to temperature changes. Modeling suggests that with increasing global temperature and urbanization, arboviral diseases will continue to emerge or reemerge. This review highlights current literature regarding temperature-dependent effects on virus-vector interactions and their potential to influence the transmission dynamics and epidemiology of arboviral diseases.

Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools)

BACKGROUND

Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur.

METHODS

A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus.

RESULTS

A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous.

CONCLUSION

This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue 2009 outbreak in Córdoba City, Argentina

During 2009 the biggest dengue epidemic to date occurred in Argentina, affecting almost half the country. We studied the spatio-temporal dynamics of the outbreak in the second most populated city of the country, Córdoba city. Confirmed cases and the results of an Aedes aegypti monitoring during the outbreak were geolocated. The imported cases began in January, and the autochthonous in March. Thirty-three percent of the 130 confirmed cases were imported, and occurred mainly at the center of the city. The autochthonous cases were more frequent in the outskirts, specially in the NE and SE. Aedes aegypti infestation showed no difference between neighborhoods with or without autochthonous cases, neither between neighborhoods with autochthonous vs. imported cases. The neighborhoods with imported cases presented higher population densities. The majority of autochthonous cases occurred at ages between 25 and 44 years old. Cases formed a spatio-temporal cluster of up to 20 days and 12km. According to a mathematical model that estimates the required number of days needed for transmission according to daily temperature, the number of cases begun to fall when more than 15.5 days were needed. This may be a coarse estimation of mean mosquito survival in the area, provided that the study area is close to the global distribution limit of the vector, and that cases prevalence was very low.

Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti: effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and future dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901–2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.

Aedes aegypti from temperate regions of South America are highly competent to transmit dengue virus

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti is extensively spread throughout South America where it has been responsible for large dengue epidemics during the last decades. Intriguingly, dengue transmission has not been reported in Uruguay and is essentially prevalent in subtropical northern Argentina which borders Uruguay.

METHODS

We assessed vector competence for dengue virus (DENV) of Ae. aegypti populations collected in subtropical Argentina (Corrientes) as well as temperate Uruguay (Salto) and Argentina (Buenos Aires) in 2012 using experimental oral infections with DENV-2. Mosquitoes were incubated at 28 °C and examined at 14 and 21 days p.i. to access viral dissemination and transmission. Batches of the Buenos Aires mosquitoes were also incubated at 15 °C and 20 °C.

RESULTS

Although mosquitoes from temperate Uruguay and Argentina were competent to transmit DENV, those from subtropical Argentina were more susceptible, displaying the highest virus titters in the head and presenting the highest dissemination of infection and transmission efficiency rates when incubated at 28 °C. Interestingly, infectious viral particles could be detected in saliva of mosquitoes from Buenos Aires exposed to 15 °C and 20 °C.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a potential risk of establishing DENV transmission in Uruguay and for the spread of dengue outbreaks to other parts of subtropical and temperate Argentina, notably during spring and summer periods.

Fluctuations at a low mean temperature accelerate dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti

Background

Environmental factors such as temperature can alter mosquito vector competence for arboviruses. Results from recent studies indicate that daily fluctuations around an intermediate mean temperature (26°C) reduce vector competence of Aedes aeygpti for dengue viruses (DENV). Theoretical predictions suggest that the mean temperature in combination with the magnitude of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) mediate the direction of these effects.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We tested the effect of temperature fluctuations on Ae. aegypti vector competence for DENV serotype-1 at high and low mean temperatures, and confirmed this theoretical prediction. A small DTR had no effect on vector competence around a high (30°C) mean, but a large DTR at low temperature (20°C) increased the proportion of infected mosquitoes with a disseminated infection by 60% at 21 and 28 days post-exposure compared to a constant 20°C. This effect resulted from a marked shortening of DENV extrinsic incubation period (EIP) in its mosquito vector; i.e., a decrease from 29.6 to 18.9 days under the fluctuating vs. constant temperature treatment.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that Ae. aegypti exposed to large fluctuations at low temperatures have a significantly shorter virus EIP than under constant temperature conditions at the same mean, leading to a considerably greater potential for DENV transmission. These results emphasize the value of accounting for daily temperature variation in an effort to more accurately understand and predict the risk of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission, provide a mechanism for sustained DENV transmission in endemic areas during cooler times of the year, and indicate that DENV transmission could be more efficient in temperate regions than previously anticipated.

Mosquitoes in the wild are exposed to daily fluctuations in temperature, but in the laboratory, the effect of temperature on vector competence is generally assessed using constant temperatures. Recent studies demonstrate that realistic fluctuations in temperature around an intermediate mean (26°C) can alter life-history traits, population dynamics, and the ability of a mosquito to become infected with and transmit dengue virus (DENV). Here we tested how fluctuations around high and low mean temperatures influence vector competence and the extrinsic incubation period. Small fluctuations around a high mean temperature (∼8°C swings around 30°C) had no detectable effect on vector competence. Large fluctuations around a low mean (∼18°C swings around 20°C) demonstrate that only 18.9 days were required for 50% of DENV-exposed mosquitoes to develop a disseminated infection, compared to 29.6 days at constant 20°C. Twenty-eight days post-exposure to the infectious blood meal, 100% of mosquitoes tested had a disseminated infection under fluctuating temperatures, but under a constant temperature this proportion was only 42%. Reduced duration of extrinsic incubation increases the potential for pathogen transmission. Results indicate that the rate of dengue transmission by mosquitoes in temperate regions with natural fluctuations may be underestimated by experiments conducted under constant temperatures.

Reduction of Aedes aegypti vector competence for dengue virus under large temperature fluctuations

Diurnal temperature fluctuations can fundamentally alter mosquito biology and mosquito-virus interactions in ways that impact pathogen transmission. We investigated the effect of two daily fluctuating temperature profiles on Aedes aegypti vector competence for dengue virus (DENV) serotype-1. A large diurnal temperature range of 18.6°C around a 26°C mean, corresponding with the low DENV transmission season in northwestern Thailand, reduced midgut infection rates and tended to extend the virus extrinsic incubation period. Dissemination was first observed at day 7 under small fluctuations (7.6°C; corresponding with high DENV transmission) and constant control temperature, but not until Day 11 for the large diurnal temperature range. Results indicate that female Ae. aegypti in northwest Thailand are less likely to transmit DENV during the low than high transmission season because of reduced DENV susceptibility and extended virus extrinsic incubation period. Better understanding of DENV transmission dynamics will come with improved knowledge of temperature effects on mosquito-virus interactions.

The incubation periods of Dengue viruses

Dengue viruses are major contributors to illness and death globally. Here we analyze the extrinsic and intrinsic incubation periods (EIP and IIP), in the mosquito and human, respectively. We identified 146 EIP observations from 8 studies and 204 IIP observations from 35 studies. These data were fitted with censored Bayesian time-to-event models. The best-fitting temperature-dependent EIP model estimated that 95% of EIPs are between 5 and 33 days at 25°C, and 2 and 15 days at 30°C, with means of 15 and 6.5 days, respectively. The mean IIP estimate was 5.9 days, with 95% expected between days 3 and 10. Differences between serotypes were not identified for either incubation period. These incubation period models should be useful in clinical diagnosis, outbreak investigation, prevention and control efforts, and mathematical modeling of dengue virus transmission.

Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue

Background

It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R₀), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R₀ value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist–a state known as hyperendemicity–and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R₀. We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic.

Methods and Findings

We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s.

Conclusions

The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas.

Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non-endemic countries? The case of Argentina

BACKGROUND

Dengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may also be implicated. The relative contribution of geographic, demographic and climatic of variables on the occurrence of dengue cases was evaluated.

METHODS

According to dengue history in the country, the study was divided in two decades, a first decade corresponding to the reemergence of the disease and the second including several epidemics. Annual dengue risk was modeled by a temperature-based mechanistic model as annual days of possible transmission. The spatial distribution of dengue occurrence was modeled as a function of the output of the mechanistic model, climatic, geographic and demographic variables for both decades.

RESULTS

According to the temperature-based model dengue risk increased between the two decades, and epidemics of the last decade coincided with high annual risk. Dengue spatial occurrence was best modeled by a combination of climatic, demographic and geographic variables and province as a grouping factor. It was positively associated with days of possible transmission, human population number, population fall and distance to water bodies. When considered separately, the classification performance of demographic variables was higher than that of climatic and geographic variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Temperature, though useful to estimate annual transmission risk, does not fully describe the distribution of dengue occurrence at the country scale. Indeed, when taken separately, climatic variables performed worse than geographic or demographic variables. A combination of the three types was best for this task.

The dengue vector Aedes aegypti: what comes next

Aedes aegypti is the urban vector of dengue viruses worldwide. While climate influences the geographical distribution of this mosquito species, other factors also determine the suitability of the physical environment. Importantly, the close association of A. aegypti with humans and the domestic environment allows this species to persist in regions that may otherwise be unsuitable based on climatic factors alone. We highlight the need to incorporate the impact of the urban environment in attempts to model the potential distribution of A. aegypti and we briefly discuss the potential for future technology to aid management and control of this widespread vector species.

Dengue transmission risk maps of Argentina

Dengue is an emerging disease that has become important in Argentina because of its vector's presence (Aedes aegypti) and its endemicity in neighbouring countries. Thematic maps were built for Argentina considering four main factors: population susceptibility to dengue virus infection (population density); entrance of the virus from endemic countries (main roads and airports); conditions for the vector (urbanization, altitude, minimum, maximum and mean daily temperatures) and virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP) completion in the mosquito before its death. EIP duration was modelled with a temperature-dependent function and considering life expectancies of 10, 15 and 20 days for the adult mosquito. The results show maximum risk of dengue transmission in the northern and north-eastern part of the country year-round and in the centre during the summer. Although life expectancy of the adult mosquito has a considerable influence on EIP completion, the north-east to south-west decreasing gradient is maintained. Assuming 20-day life expectancy, the EIP would be completed in almost any region of the country; whereas with 15-day life expectancy it would be limited to vector distribution area, and at 10 days it would be restricted to the northern extreme of the country.

Maintaining mosquito cell lines at high temperatures: effects on the replication of flaviviruses

The upper thermal limit for maintenance of eleven mosquito cell lines was studied. Although most cell lines could be grown at 32 degrees C to 34 degrees C, Anopheles stephensi cell line could be maintained at 37 degrees C. At higher temperatures initial growth rate was higher, but yield of cells after about a week of incubation was lower than at the standard temperature (28 degrees C). Replication of several flaviviruses in Aedes albopictus cell cultures adapted to 34.5 degrees C was faster, and viral titers were higher than at 28 degrees C.

California encephalitis virus transmission by arctic and domestic mosquitoes

A zero passage arctic mosquito isolate of California encephalitis (CE) virus (showshoe hare subtype) was transmitted by wild-caught Aedes communis mosquitoes after 13 days incubation at 13 degrees and 23 degrees C, AFTER 20 days incubation at 13 degrees C, when mosquitoes imbibed 1 mouse LD50 in a blood meal. Transmission occurred after 20 days incubation at 13 degrees and 23 degrees C when mosquitoes were injected intrathoracially with 1 or 0.1 mouse LD50. Virus was also transmitted by A. aegypti 13 days after infection with 100 mouse LD50 by feeding or intrathoracic injection, and incubation at 13 degrees C. Virus antigen was detected in salivary glands of 42 percent virus-positive A communis mosquitoes by direct immunofluorescence, and in 50 percent or less of A aegypti mosquitoes by immunoperoxidase and immunofluorescence, with somewhat greater regularity by the indirect than the direct technique.

Arbovirus growth in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes throughout their viable temperature range

After intrathoracic inoculation of laboratory-bred Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with 3 Yukon isolates of California encephalitis (CE) virus (showshoe hare subtype), Northway (NOR) and Murray Valley encephalitis (MVE) viruses, viral replication was observed following incubation at 13, 21, 35 and 39 degrees C, which constituted the full temperature range of viability of A. aegypti. Rates of viral replication were reduced at low temperatures and accelerated at high temperatures. Virus-specific immunoperoxidase staining of mosquito salivary glands occurred regularly after thoraces attained maximum infectivity levels. At 13 and 21 degrees C, mosquitoes were infected by 10 to 100 times less CE and MVE viruses than mice, but about 10 times more NOR virus was required to infect mosquitoes than mice.