An ANFIS model-based approach to investigate the effect of lockdown due to COVID-19 on public health

Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 lockdown effect to survive in the US counties using ANN

This study aims to quantify the effectiveness of lockdown as a non-pharmacological solution for managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily COVID-19 death counts were collected for four states: California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina. The effectiveness of the lockdown was studied and the number of people saved during 7 days was evaluated. Five neural network models (MLP, FFNN, CFNN, ENN, and NARX) were implemented, and the results indicate that FFNN is the best prediction model. Based on this model, the total number of survivors over a 7-day period is 211, 270, 989, and 60 in California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina, respectively. The coefficients and weights of the FFNN for each state differ due to various factors, including socio-demographic conditions and the behavior of citizens towards lockdown laws. New Jersey and South Carolina have the most lockdowns and the least.

Change in the air due to the coronavirus outbreak in four major cities of India: What do the statistics say?

The onset of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has impacted all sectors of society. To avoid the rapid spread of this virus, the Government of India imposed a nationwide lockdown in four phases. Lockdown, due to COVID-19 pandemic, resulted a decline in pollution in India in general and in dense cities in particular. Data on key air quality indicators were collected, imputed, and compiled for the period 1st August 2018 to 31st May 2020 for India's four megacities, namely Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Hyderabad. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and machine learning technique e.g. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with the inclusion of lockdown dummy in both the models have been applied to examine the impact of anthropogenic activity on air quality parameters. The number of indicators having significant lockdown dummy are six (PM2.5, PM10, NOx, CO, benzene, and AQI), five (PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2 and benzene), five (PM10, NOx, CO, benzene and AQI) and three (PM2.5, PM10, and AQI) for Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Hyderabad respectively. It was also observed that the prediction accuracy significantly improved when a lockdown dummy was incorporated. The highest reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is found for CO in Hyderabad (28.98%) followed by the NOx in Delhi (28.55%). Overall, it can be concluded that there is a significant decline in the value of air quality parameters in the lockdown period as compared to the same time phase in the previous year. Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic will help to achieve significant improvement in ambient air quality while keeping economic growth in mind.

Dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: nonlinear approaches on the modelling, prediction and control

This special issue contains 35 regular articles on the analysis and dynamics of COVID-19 with several applications. Some analyses are on the construction of mathematical models representing the dynamics of COVID-19, and some are on the estimations and predictions of the disease, a few with possible applications. The various contributions report important, timely, and promising results, such as the effects of several waves, deep learning-based COVID-19 classifications, and multivariate time series with applications.

Change in Normal Health Condition Due to COVID-19 Infection: Analysis by ANFIS Technique

The COVID-19 pandemic has crippled the world population. Our present work aims to formulate a model to analyze the change in normal health conditions due to COVID-19 infection. For this purpose, we have collected data of seven parameters, namely, age, systolic pressure (SP), diastolic paper (DP), respiratory distress (RD), fasting blood sugar (FBS), cholesterol (CHL), and insomnia (INS) of 156 persons of Birnagar municipality, Nadia, India; before and after COVID-19 infection. Ultimately, using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), we have formulated our desired model, a Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy inference system. Further, with the help of this model, we have established one’s change in health condition with age due to COVID-19 infection. Finally, we have derived that older people are more affected by COVID-19 infection than younger people.