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Caasi JAS, Guerrero AL, Yoon K, Aquino LJC, Moore A, Oh H, Rychtář J, Taylor D. A mathematical model of invasion and control of coconut rhinoceros beetle Oryctes rhinoceros (L.) in Guam. J Theor Biol 2023; 570:111525. [PMID: 37207719 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Revised: 04/27/2023] [Accepted: 05/08/2023] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
The coconut rhinoceros beetle (CRB), is one of the most damaging pests to coconut palms causing severe economic harm. Its expansion from Asia to the Pacific in the early 20th century has been stopped by virus control. However, a new haplotype CRB-Guam has recently escaped this control and invaded Guam, other Pacific islands, and has even established itself in the Western Hemisphere. In this paper, we present a compartmental ODE model of CRB population and control. We carefully consider CRB life stages and its interplay with coconut palms as well as "the green waste", the organic matters used by CRB for breeding sites. We calibrate and validate the model based on data count of CRBs trapped in Guam between 2008 and 2014. We derive the basic reproduction number determining the CRB population growth without any control measures. We also identify control levels required to eliminate CRBs. We show that, in the absence of viable virus control, the sanitation, i.e., the removal of the green waste is the most efficient way to control the population. Our model predicts that the sanitation efforts need to roughly double from the current levels to eliminate CRB from Guam. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a rare event like Typhoon Dolphin that hit Guam in 2015 can lead to a quick rise of the CRB population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jovic Aaron S Caasi
- Division of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Guam, Mangilao, GU, 96923, USA.
| | - Alex Leon Guerrero
- St. John's School, Tamuning, GU 96913, USA; School of Engineering, University of Guam, Mangilao, GU 96923, USA(1).
| | - Kangsan Yoon
- Harvest Christian Academy, Barrigada, GU 96921, USA.
| | | | - Aubrey Moore
- Division of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Guam, Mangilao, GU 96923, USA.
| | - Hyunju Oh
- Division of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Guam, Mangilao, GU, 96923, USA.
| | - Jan Rychtář
- Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284, USA.
| | - Dewey Taylor
- Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284, USA.
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Dynamics of Fractional Model of Biological Pest Control in Tea Plants with Beddington–DeAngelis Functional Response. FRACTAL AND FRACTIONAL 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/fractalfract6010001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
In this study, we depicted the spread of pests in tea plants and their control by biological enemies in the frame of a fractional-order model, and its dynamics are surveyed in terms of boundedness, uniqueness, and the existence of the solutions. To reduce the harm to the tea plant, a harvesting term is introduced into the equation that estimates the growth of tea leaves. We analyzed various points of equilibrium of the projected model and derived the conditions for the stability of these equilibrium points. The complex nature is examined by changing the values of various parameters and fractional derivatives. Numerical computations are conducted to strengthen the theoretical findings.
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