Surrogate scores of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD/NASH do not predict mortality in patients with medium-to-high cardiovascular risk

Liver disease is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes - A UK Biobank study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We investigated whether early signs of liver disease (measured by iron-corrected T1-mapping [cT1]) were associated with an increased risk of major CVD events.

METHODS

Liver disease activity (cT1) and fat (proton density fat fraction [PDFF]) were measured using LiverMultiScan® between January 2016 and February 2020 in the UK Biobank imaging sub-study. Using multivariable Cox regression, we explored associations between liver cT1 (MRI) and primary CVD (coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation [AF], embolism/vascular events, heart failure [HF] and stroke), and CVD hospitalisation and all-cause mortality. Liver blood biomarkers, general metabolism biomarkers, and demographics were also included. Subgroup analysis was conducted in those without metabolic syndrome (defined as at least three of: a large waist, high triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, increased systolic blood pressure, or elevated haemoglobin A1c).

RESULTS

A total of 33,616 participants (mean age 65 years, mean BMI 26 kg/m2, mean haemoglobin A1c 35 mmol/mol) had complete MRI liver data with linked clinical outcomes (median time to major CVD event onset: 1.4 years [range: 0.002-5.1]; follow-up: 2.5 years [range: 1.1-5.2]). Liver disease activity (cT1), but not liver fat (PDFF), was associated with higher risk of any major CVD event (hazard ratio 1.14; 95% CI 1.03-1.26; p = 0.008), AF (1.30; 1.12-1.51; p <0.001); HF (1.30; 1.09-1.56; p= 0.004); CVD hospitalisation (1.27; 1.18-1.37; p <0.001) and all-cause mortality (1.19; 1.02-1.38; p = 0.026). FIB-4 index was associated with HF (1.06; 1.01-1.10; p = 0.007). Risk of CVD hospitalisation was independently associated with cT1 in individuals without metabolic syndrome (1.26; 1.13-1.4; p <0.001).

CONCLUSION

Liver disease activity, by cT1, was independently associated with a higher risk of incident CVD and all-cause mortality, independent of pre-existing metabolic syndrome, liver fibrosis or fat.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is associated with a twofold greater incidence of cardiovascular disease. Our work shows that early liver disease on iron-corrected T1 mapping was associated with a higher risk of major cardiovascular disease (14%), cardiovascular disease hospitalisation (27%) and all-cause mortality (19%). These findings highlight the prognostic relevance of a comprehensive evaluation of liver health in populations at risk of CVD and/or CLD, even in the absence of clinical manifestations or metabolic syndrome, when there is an opportunity to modify/address risk factors and prevent disease progression. As such, they are relevant to patients, carers, clinicians, and policymakers.

Cardiorenal outcomes by indices of liver steatosis and fibrosis in individuals with type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: Analyses from VERTIS CV, a randomized trial of the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor ertugliflozin

AIM

To conduct a post hoc analysis to explore indices of hepatic steatosis/fibrosis and cardiorenal outcomes in the VERTIS CV study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular (CV) disease were randomized to ertugliflozin or placebo. Liver steatosis and fibrosis were assessed post hoc using the hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index to explore associations with cardiorenal outcomes (ertugliflozin and placebo data pooled, intention-to-treat analysis set). Cardiorenal outcomes (major adverse CV events [MACE]; hospitalization for heart failure [HHF]/CV death; CV death; HHF; and a composite kidney outcome) were stratified by baseline HSI and FIB-4 quartiles (Q1-Q4). Change in liver indices and enzymes over time were assessed (for ertugliflozin vs. placebo).

RESULTS

Amongst 8246 participants, the mean age was 64.4 years, body mass index 32.0 kg/m² , HSI 44.0 and FIB-4 score 1.34. The hazard ratios (HRs) for MACE, HHF/CV death, CV death, and HHF by FIB-4 score quartile (Q4 vs. Q1) were 1.48 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25, 1.76), 2.0 (95% CI 1.63, 2.51), 1.85 (95% CI 1.45, 2.36), and 2.94 (95% CI 1.98, 4.37), respectively (P < 0.0001 for all). With HSI, the incidence of HHF was higher in Q4 versus Q1 (HR 1.52 [95% CI 1.07, 2.17]; P < 0.05). The kidney composite outcome did not differ across FIB-4 or HSI quartiles. Liver enzymes and HSI decreased over time with ertugliflozin.

CONCLUSION

In VERTIS CV, higher FIB-4 score was associated with CV events. HSI correlated with HHF. Neither measure was associated with the composite kidney outcome. Ertugliflozin was associated with a reduction in liver enzymes and HSI.

Liver fibrosis scores and prognosis in patients with cardiovascular diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, liver fibrosis was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events. However, the relationship between liver fibrosis scores and clinical outcomes in patients with cardiovascular disease remains unclear.

METHODS

Searching from PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases yielded cohort studies that reported adjusted effect size between liver fibrosis scores (Fibrosis-4 score [FIB-4] or NAFLD fibrosis score [NFS]) and prognosis in patients with cardiovascular disease. The effect size was computed using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included twelve cohort studies involving 25,252 patients with cardiovascular disease. Participants with the highest baseline level of FIB-4 or NFS had a significantly increased risk of cardiovascular events (FIB-4, HR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.53-2.00, I ²  = 0%; NFS, HR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.50-2.47, I ²  = 47%). This finding was consistent with the analysis of FIB-4 or NFS as a continuous variable (per 1-unit increment FIB-4, HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.06-1.24, I ²  = 72%; NFS, HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.07-1.24, I ²  = 71%). Furthermore, participants with the highest levels of FIB-4 or NFS had a greater risk of cardiovascular mortality (FIB-4, HR: 2.07, 95% CI: 1.19-3.61, I ²  = 89%; NFS, HR: 3.72, 95% CI: 2.62-5.29, I ²  = 60%) and all-cause mortality (FIB-4, HR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.24-2.66, I ²  = 90%; NFS, HR: 3.49, 95% CI: 2.82-4.31, I ²  = 25%). This result was also consistent as a continuous variable.

CONCLUSION

Higher levels of FIB-4 and NFS are related to an increased risk of cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease.

Association of NAFLD with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: a large-scale prospective cohort study based on UK Biobank

Objective

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered as the hepatic manifestation of metabolic syndrome, sharing the similar cardiometabolic risk factors with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether NAFLD by itself is associated with increased cardiovascular events and death remain an issue to debate. This study aimed to further investigate the association between NAFLD and adverse CVD outcomes.

Methods

Participants were followed up until the end of 2020 in current analysis. NAFLD is defined using fatty liver index (FLI). Cox proportional hazard model was used to analyze the association between NAFLD and all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), CVD mortality, fatal/nonfatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and fatal/nonfatal stroke. C-index was calculated to evaluate the model enhancement when adding NAFLD factor.

Results

After screening the data of 502,492 participants in the original cohort, 215,245 eligible participants were included in this study for MACEs outcome. Compared with non-NAFLD participants, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios of NAFLD group was 1.25 (1.14-1.36) for MACEs; 1.14 (1.08-1.20) for all-cause mortality; 1.61(1.42-1.82) for CVD mortality; 1.58(1.19-2.11) for AMI mortality; and 1.18 (0.85-1.64) for stroke mortality. When adding FLI, C-index of NAFLD model improved for all-cause mortality, MACEs, and CVD mortality compared with that in the traditional CVD risk factor model.

Conclusion

NAFLD is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality and adverse CVD outcomes. Based on the traditional CVD risk factor model, additionally screening NAFLD could improve the prediction efficiency for adverse CVD outcomes.